Amplification effect of cascading breach discharge of landslide dams

Landslides - Affected by earthquakes and heavy rainfall, multiple landslide dams often cluster closely together along river reaches or gullies. Compared with a single landslide dam, the burst flood...     

Some considerations about the simulation of breach channel erosion on landslide dams

The analysis of the flood hazard related to the areas downstream of landslide dams is one of the most interesting aspects of studying the formation and the failure of natural dams. The BREACH code [14], simulating the collapse of earthen dams, both man-made and naturally formed by a landslide, was chosen in order to analyse the case of the Valderchia landslide (central Italy). The bed-load transport formula used in BREACH (Meyer-Peter and Muller, modified by Smart [27]) is based on flume experiments with well-sorted sediments. Such a methodology probably makes this equation not very suitable for describing the sediment transport peculiar to a landslide body presenting a very poor material sorting. The Schoklitsch [26] formula was implemented into the programme as an alternative to the Smart equation. However, because the landslide deposits may often have a strongly bimodal grain–size frequency curve, the percentile D ₅₀ (the typical granulometric parameter requested by bed-load sediment transport formulas) can sometimes correspond to one of the grain-size classes which are really present to a lesser degree. To consider this phenomenon, the BREACH programme (version 7/88-1) was implemented with a new procedure that calculates two granulometric curves, one for each mode of the original distribution, and evaluates transport of the landslide material separately. Results of the analysis show that the model is very sensitive to the bed-load equation and that the procedure implemented to consider the eventual bimodal distribution of the dam material simulates the armouring phenomenon (which can stop the erosion of the dam during the overtopping phase).     

水库型滑坡模型试验相似材料的研制及应用

相似材料的研制是滑坡模型试验的关键。在相似材料的研究基础上,通过大量的配比试验,结合模糊综合评价法对不同配比材料的相似性进行比较,研制出同时模拟物理力学性能相似和渗流作用相似的水库型滑坡相似材料,这种材料由标准砂、滑体土、膨润土和水溶液混合而成。同时通过库水作用下滑坡模型试验评价该材料的相似效果,记录水位升降过程中坡内的孔隙水压力变化、渗流变化、滑面形态及裂缝形成发展过程。试验结果表明,库水对岩土体物理力学性质的弱化和坡内指向临空面的渗透压力是滑坡产生的主要诱发因素;水库型滑坡的破坏模式为有多级滑面的牵引式破坏;试验观测的浸润线与理论计算结果基本吻合。该相似材料的物理力学性能和渗流效果均能达到试验相似要求,模拟库水作用下滑坡变形破坏过程的效果良好,是一种比较理想的水库型滑坡模型相似材料。研究结果为进一步开展大型水库型滑坡模型试验提供了科学依据。     

考虑土石料颗粒破碎和密度变化的次塑性本构模型建模方法

试验和现场观测都发现高土石坝的坝料在高压及湿化作用下会发生显著的颗粒破碎,颗粒破碎会改变土石料的级配曲线和密度,因而影响其后继力学行为,因此,土石料的颗粒破碎是当前岩土工程领域的研究热点。为了模拟土石料在高压及湿化作用下发生显著的颗粒破碎现象,以及循环加载中的颗粒破碎与应力诱导各向异性随动硬化共同影响下土石料的变形,本文提出了一个建模方法,考虑土石料颗粒破碎和密度变化的影响。所建议的次塑性本构模型在经过试验资料的验证后可用于动力有限元数值计算。     

Fuzzy algorithm for estimating average breach widths of embankment dams

Dam breach width significantly influences peak breach outflow, inundation levels, and flood arrival time, but uncertainties inherent in the prediction of its value for embankment dams make its accurate estimation a challenging task in dam risk assessments. The key focus of this paper is to provide a fuzzy logic (FL) model for estimating the average breach width of embankment dams as an alternative to regression equations (RE). The FL approach is capable of handling nonlinear behavior, imprecision in discrete measurements, and parameter uncertainty. Historical data from 69 embankment dam failures are used in the development and testing of the FL model. Application of the FL model is also presented for estimating average breach widths of two case studies that have adequately documented data. The accuracy of the FL rule-based model is investigated using uncertainty analysis: the mean prediction error between the FL estimates and the observed average breach widths is very small (=0.03) and comparable to that achieved using the best available RE. Moreover, the FL uncertainty band is found to be approximately ±0.51 order of magnitude smaller than the ±0.56 order of magnitude achieved with the best available RE. The simulation results indicate the potential of the FL model to be used as a predictive tool for estimating the average breach width of embankment dams.     

An empirical model for predicting flakiness in cone crushing

A fundamental understanding of the factors influencing particle shape is of central importance for optimisation of the output quality from crushing plants for aggregate production. The literature reports that the wear on and setting of a cone crusher influence particle shape, The fact that wear on and the setting of a cone crusher influence particle shape is considered common knowledge and is also reported in the literature. To date, no mathematical model for predicting particle shape has been presented.     

基于SSA-Adam-BP神经网络模型的堰塞坝稳定性预测

现有的堰塞坝稳定性预测模型多为线性模型,无法充分考虑堰塞坝稳定性与其形态特征和水域条件之间的复杂非线性关系.鉴于此,结合反向传播神经网络模型和樽海鞘优化算法,提出了一种新型的堰塞坝稳定性预测模型SSA-Adam-BP.该模型通过网格搜索法选取确定模型结构的最佳超参数组合,进而利用交叉验证和绘制ROC曲线的方式分别对采用...     

Identification of the affected areas by mass movement through a physically based model of landslide hazard combined with an empirical model of debris flow

In tropical areas, mass movements are common phenomena, especially during periods of heavy rainfall, which frequently take place in the summer season. These phenomena have caused loss of life and serious damage to infrastructure and properties. The most prominent of these phenomena are landslides that can produce debris flows. Thus, this article aims at determining affected areas using a model to predict landslide prone areas (SHALSTAB) combined with an empirical model designed to define the debris flow travel distance and area of deposition. The methodology of this work consists of the following steps: (a) elaboration of a digital elevation model (DEM), (b) application of the deterministic SHALSTAB model to locate the landslide prone areas, (c) identification of the debris flow travel distance and area of deposition, and (d) mapping of the affected areas (landslides and debris flows). This work was developed in an area in which many mass movements occurred after intense rainfall during the summer season (February 1996) in the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. All of the scars produced by that event were mapped, allowing for validation of the applied models. The model results show that the mapped landslide locations can adequately be simulated by the model.     

Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.     

Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

An empirical model for landslide travel distance prediction in Wenchuan earthquake area

Sliding mass of landslides highly endangered the area along travel path, especially landslides with long travel distance. It is necessary to develop an effective prediction model for preliminarily evaluating landslide travel distance so as to improve disaster prevention and relocation. This paper collected 54 landslides with 347–4,170 m travel distance triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake to discuss the effectiveness of various influential factors on landslide travel distance and obtained an empirical model for its prediction. The results revealed that rock type, sliding source volume, and slope transition angle were the predominant factors on landslide travel distance. The validity of proposed model was verified by the satisfactory agreement between observations and predictions. Therefore, this model might be practically applicable in Wenchuan earthquake area and other similar geomorphological and geological regions.     

海底滑坡海啸的颗粒流耦合模型

海底滑坡的运动可能引发海啸,破坏离岸设施,威胁海岸带安全。国内外关于海底滑坡引发海啸的研究方兴未艾。采用Mih颗粒流模型控制具弱黏聚力的砂土滑坡运动,利用两相流模型计算岩土体-水体相互作用及RNG湍流模型控制水体运动,构建了基于颗粒流模型的海底滑坡海啸全耦合数值分析方法。通过简单水槽水下滑坡案例进行了海底滑坡海啸全过程研究。数值分析再现了变形滑体的不均一运动、密度分异流动、水滑机制和以波谷为典型特征的涌浪波等典型海底滑坡及海啸现象,这表明数值模型具有有效性。许多海域（包括中国南海北部）都存在弱黏聚力和无黏聚力的水下滑坡,该数值方法值得推广和进一步研究完善。     

考虑滑脱效应的低阶煤动态渗透率预测新模型

为准确预测低阶煤动态渗透率变化规律,在煤岩立方体模型基础上,考虑基质孔隙和滑脱效应对渗透率的影响,建立低阶煤动态渗透率预测新模型,并对影响绝对渗透率和滑脱系数的因素进行敏感性分析,讨论了甲烷和氮气对基质收缩与滑脱效应的影响。研究表明：基于“火柴棍”假设建立的模型是新模型不考虑基质孔隙时的一个特例,P-M、S-D模型与新模型相比基质收缩作用更加明显,考虑基质收缩与滑脱效应的新模型更具实用性。气体郎格缪尔应变是影响基质收缩的关键,煤岩绝对渗透率能否反弹是割理压缩、基质孔隙膨胀、基质弹性形变和基质收缩4个因素共同作用的结果。相同条件下,甲烷的基质收缩强于氮气,氮气的滑脱效应强于甲烷,影响滑脱系数的因素包括内因和外因,滑脱系数与割理宽度随孔隙压力变化时呈现相反规律。滑脱效应和基质收缩效应共同提升气测渗透率,煤岩孔隙压力越低,二者对渗透率的提升作用越明显。     

考虑湿化效应的堆石料Gudehus-Bauer 亚塑性模型应用研究

在扼要分析堆石料主要力学特性的基础上,在亚塑性理论框架内,采用扩展的Gudehus-Bauer亚塑性模型对堆石料因含水率发生变化引起的湿化行为进行建模预测。扩展模型除能考虑含水率对颗粒硬度的影响外,还能反映土体密实度、应力状态和含水率等对堆石料非线性和非弹性变形的影响。将该模型应用于心墙坝初次蓄水时应力变形的亚塑性计算分析中。结果表明,扩展模型能较合理地反映心墙堆石坝的湿化变形规律。     

A proposed model for predicting trace metal composition of fly-ash leachates

A mathematical model is proposed that is designed to predict trace metal composition of leachates produced by coal fly ashes. This model is based on the assumption that the mobilization of trace metals from fly ash is primarily a surface desorption phenomenon. The validity of this model is tested using data from published sources. Good correlation is found between predicted trace metal concentrations and measured trace metal concentrations in experimentally produced leachates.     

一种高地应力条件下爆破开挖诱发振动峰值的预测模型

高地应力条件下深部岩体爆破开挖过程中,炸药爆炸产生的能量和岩体开挖释放的应变能共同构成了振动的能量源。采用传统的基于单响药量的萨道夫斯基经验公式及其改进公式预测高地应力条件下爆破开挖诱发振动峰值精度不高。通过量纲分析,提出了一种基于能量平衡原理的振动峰值预测模型。结合锦屏二级深埋引水隧洞爆破试验,以上半洞实测振动数据为学习样本,训练模型;以下半洞实测振动数据为对比样本,检验模型。结果表明:与传统预测模型相比,预测模型具有较高的拟合相关系数和较低的预测均方根误差,可以更好地应用于高地应力条件下爆破开挖诱发振动峰值的预测。     

The application of an innovative inverse model for understanding and predicting landslide movements (Salazie cirque landslides,Reunion Island)

The prediction of landslide movement acceleration is a complex problem, among others identified for deep-seated landslides, and represents a crucial step for risk assessment. Within the scope of this problem, the objective of this paper is to explore a modelling method that enables the study of landslide function and facilitates displacement predictions based on a limited data set. An inverse modelling approach is proposed for predicting the temporal evolution of landslide movement based on rainfall and displacement velocities. Initially, the hydrogeology of the studied landslides was conceptualised based on correlative analyses. Subsequently, we applied an inverse model with a Gaussian-exponential transfer function to reproduce the displacements. This method was tested on the Grand Ilet (GI) and Mare-à-Poule-d’Eau (HB) landslides on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean. We show that the behaviour of landslides can be modelled by inverse models with a bimodal transfer function using a Gaussian-exponential impulse response. The cumulative displacements over 7 years of modelling (2 years of calibration period for GI, and 4 years for HB) were reproduced with an RMSE above 0.9. The characteristics of the bimodal transfer function are directly related to the hydrogeological functioning demonstrated by the correlative analyses: the rapid reaction of a landslide can be associated with the effect of a preferential flow path on groundwater level variations. Thus, this study shows that the inverse model using a Gaussian-exponential transfer function is a powerful tool for predicting deep-seated landslide movements and for studying how they function. Beyond modelling displacements, our approach effectively demonstrates its ability to contribute relevant data for conceptualising the sliding mechanisms and hydrogeology of landslides.     

考虑基质吸力作用的Newmark改进模型在地震滑坡风险评价中的应用

传统的Newmark模型常对地下水位以上由负孔隙水压力提供的部分抗剪强度忽略不计,这对于滑动面的主要部分处在地下水位以下时较为合理,但对地下水位很深或考虑出现浅层滑动的坡体,其计算结果过于保守。因此,文章将Newmark累积位移模型扩展至非饱和土力学领域,在考虑基质吸力作用的基础上,改进了Newmark模型计算公式。分别利用Newmark传统模型和改进模型对甘肃礼县幅区域内的地震滑坡进行易发性分区,并在此基础上分别开展50年超越概率10%情况下的地震滑坡危险性分区和风险评价,最后利用ROC曲线对评价结果进行验证和比较。结果表明:改进模型所得易发区和危险区的计算结果明显优于传统模型计算结果;改进的模型所得风险区的计算结果虽然改进效果不明显,但仍优于传统模型计算结果。由于考虑基质吸力作用的Newmark改进模型充分发挥了基质吸力的贡献,使得计算结果更为合理,研究成果可为相关地区开展地震滑坡易发性分区、危险性分析和风险评价提供新的参考。     

A dual-porosity model considering the displacement effect for incompressible two-phase flow

The dual-porosity model is usually employed to simulate the flow in fractured reservoirs. However, its original form for the multiphase flow does not consider the displacement effect under macropressure gradient. Especially for the incompressible multiphase flow, it predicts zero transfer term between fracture and matrix, which is unreasonable. To improve this, a modified double-porosity model is proposed for incompressible two-phase flow, in which the displacement effect is considered and the corresponding shape factor is derived. For the anisotropic case, the shape factor of displacement depends upon the velocity direction. The accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed dual-porosity model are indicated through numerical tests.     

Universal model forms for predicting the shear modulus and material damping of soils

Numerous model forms have been used to predict the dynamic behaviours of soils, mainly the shear modulus and material damping. These models are used to represent normalised shear modulus reduction and material damping curves. The majority of the existing models are empirical and were proposed for specific soil types, strain ranges, etc. Some are limited to the data used in fitting, but fail to provide a good fit to other sets of data. The available model functions are not universal, which means that a model developed for one soil type may not be applicable for use with other soil types. In this paper, two universal mathematical models were proposed to predict the normalised shear modulus reduction and material damping curves. The mathematical model forms are sufficiently flexible to be widely used with different soil types. The models were evaluated using verification data of eight different soil types, i.e., data that were not used to fit the model parameters. The results indicate that the proposed model forms can accurately model the dynamic soil properties within the typical earthquake range. The advantage of developing the two universal models are two-fold, first the forms are applicable for sand, clay, and fibre-soil composite and second with further testing of soils, the model coefficients could ultimately be used to further understand the physical processes in soil behaviour, especially damping.