2013年10月31日吉林前郭M5.8震群研究

2013年10月31日在吉林省前郭县查干花镇先后发生5.5级和5.0级地震,之后于2013年11月22日、23日又在原地分别发生了5.3级和5.8级、5.0级地震,形成震群活动。震群地震发生在东北断块区松辽断陷带中央坳陷区内,极震区长轴呈北东向展布。本次震群序列共记录1 356次地震,包括5次5级以上地震,记录到完整的地震序列。余震呈NW向密集条带状分布,震群震源断错性质为带有走滑分量的逆冲型错动,综合分析认为,前郭震群地震可能受北东向扶余—肇东断裂和北西向查干泡—道字井断裂控制,其破裂面为北西向,发震构造可能是震源区基底深部一条NW向隐伏逆冲断裂（查干泡—道字井断裂）。前郭5.8级震群在震前出现一部分测震学异常,而前兆异常更丰富,表现为由外围向震中区逐渐逼近,地震发生后前兆异常又表现出由震中区向外围扩散的特征;在时间上,先是从2010年以来出现以破年变为特征的中期趋势异常,逐渐由趋势异常向短期异常再向临震异常演化,临震异常主要以加速转折下降为主。      

Pattern Informatics and its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan

Pattern Informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make an earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m ≥ 5) earthquakes spanning the time period 1995–2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find in a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m ≥ 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000–2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: The epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecast map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with 5.0 ≤ m. We find that these events were close to in a forecasted area on the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

新疆天山近7级地震前震群活动的时空分布演化特征

通过普查与系统研究发现, 新疆天山近7级强震之前, 震群活动携带了丰富震兆信息。 主要结果如下: ① 震前1年半至3年多, 包括未来强震震中在内的整个地震带或某一区段震群活动明显增强; ② 在未来强震震中附近, 震群的数量最多且空间分布最为集中, 这些大量密集的震群构成的震群环包围了未来主震震中, 即形成震群空区或空段。 震群空区或空段的几何形状大多为椭圆, 其最大尺度约200 km; ③ 强震之前, 震群数量的多少, 随未来强震震级的增加而增加; ④ 个别强震前几个月, 震群增加的速率有加快的趋势, 同时震群空区内出现填空, 可作为近7级强震进入短期异常阶段的参考标志。 最后, 对所得结果的物理机制以及在地震预报中的应用等问题进行了讨论。     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

西南地区前兆震群以及显著地震与区域强震的时空特征

本文系统清理并分析了西南划分的五个预报区[1]中的强震发生前的前兆震群和显著性地震特征。在西南划分的五个预报区中,各区域的前兆震群和显著地震存在共性特征,但又具有明显的区域个性。从共性特征上看,西南划分的五个预报区的前兆震群和显著性地震发生后1-2年可能发生强震,强震一般发生在前兆震群或显著性地震附近地区或相关联构造带上;川滇往往是块体内部构造较复杂的区域,发生的强震会有前兆震群或显著性地震发生。从个性特征上看,西南划分的五个预报区的前兆震群和显著性地震发生与西南地区的地震地质构造具有一定关系,也就是说特殊的构造使得各区域的前兆震群和显著性地震具有明显的个性特征。     

Searching for an Earthquake Precursor—A Case Study of Precursory Swarm as a Real Seismic Pattern Before Major Shocks

A long-range correlation between earthquakes is indicated by some phenomena precursory to strong earthquakes. Most of the major earthquakes show prior seismic activity that in hindsight seems anomalous. The features include changes in regional activity rate and changes in the pattern of small earthquakes, including alignments on unmapped linear features near the (future) main shock. It has long been suggested that large earthquakes are preceded by observable variations in regional seismicity. Studies on seismic precursors preceding large to great earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5 were carried out in the northeast India region bounded by the area 20°–32°N and 88°–100°E using the earthquake database from 1853 to 1988. It is observed that all earthquakes of M ≥ 7.5, including the two great earthquakes of 1897 and 1950, were preceded by abnormally low anomalous seismicity phases some 11–27 years prior to their occurrence. On the other hand, precursory time periods ranged from 440 to 1,768 days for main shocks with M 5.6–6.5 for the period from 1963 to 1988. Furthermore, the 6 August, 1988 main shock of M 7.5 in the Arakan Yoma fold belt was preceded by well-defined patterns of anomalous seismicity that occurred during 1963–1964, about 25.2 years prior to its occurrence. The pattern of anomalous seismicity in the form of earthquake swarms preceding major earthquakes in the northeast India region can be regarded as one of the potential seismic precursors. Database constraints have been the main barrier to searching for this precursor preceding smaller earthquakes, which otherwise might have provided additional information on its existence. The entire exercise indicates that anomalous seismicity preceding major shocks is a common seismic pattern for the northeast India region, and can be employed for long-range earthquake prediction when better quality seismological data sets covering a wide range of magnitudes are available. Anomalous seismic activity is distinguished by a much higher annual frequency of earthquake occurrence than in the preceding normal and the following gap episodes.     

Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy: Algorithm M8

—Large earthquakes in Italy are preceded by a specific seismic activation which could be diagnosed by a reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction method—a modification for lower seismic rate areas of the algorithm, known as M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990). Use has been made of the PFG-ING catalog of earthquakes, compiled on a regular basis, to determine areas and times of increased probability for occurrences of M≥ 6 earthquakes. In retroactive simulation of forward prediction, for the period 1972–1995, both the 1976 Friuli, M = 6.1 and the 1980 Irpinia, M = 6.5 earthquakes are predicted. In the experiment where priority magnitude scale is used, the times of increased probability for a strong earthquake to occur (TIPs) occupy less than a quarter of the total magnitude-space-time domain, and are rather stable with respect to positioning of circles of investiga tion. Successful stability tests have been made considering a recently compiled catalog (CCI97) (Peresan et al., 1997). In combination with the CN algorithm results (Costa et al., 1996) the spatio-temporal uncertainty of the prediction could be reduced to 5%. The use of M8 for the forward prediction requires the computations to be repeated each half-year, using the updated catalog.     

Earthquake parameters and spatial distribution of coseismic effects in Southern Siberia and Mongolia

In this work we review earthquakes that happened in Southern Siberia and Mongolia within the coordinates of 42°–62° N and 80°–124° E and first propose relationships between earthquake parameters (a surface-wave earthquake magnitude M _s and an epicentral intensity(I ₀) based on the MSK-64 scale) and maximal distances from an earthquake epicenter (R _{e max}), hypocenter (R _{h max}), and a seismogenic fault (R _{f max}) to the localities of secondary coseismic effects. Special attention was paid to the study of these relationships for the effects of soil liquefaction. Hence, it was shown that secondary deformations from an earthquake were distributed in space away from an earthquake epicenter, than from an associating seismogenic fault. The effects of soil liquefaction are manifested by several times closer to a seismogenic fault, than all other effects, regardless of the type of tectonic movement in a seismic focus. Within the 40 km zone from an earthquake epicenter 44% of the known manifestations of liquefaction process occurred; within the 40 km zone from a seismogenic fault—90%. We propose the next relationship for effects of soil liquefaction: M _s = 0.007 × R _{e max} + 5.168 that increases the limits of the maximum epicentral distance at an earthquake magnitude of 5.2 ≤ M _s ≤ 8.1 as compared to the corresponding relationships for different regions of the world.     

Correlation between the tilt anomaly on the vertical pendulum at the Songpan station and the 2021 MS7.4 Maduo earthquake in Qinghai province,China

Understanding the relationship between precursory deformation anomalies and strong earthquakes is vital for physical earthquake prediction. Six months before the 2021 M_S7.4 Maduo earthquake in Qinghai province, China, the vertical pendulum at the Songpan station was observed to tilt southward with a high rate and large amplitude. Studies conducted before the 2021 M_S7.4 Maduo earthquake inferred the tilt anomaly to be an earthquake precursor. However, after the earthquake, the relation between the earthquake and the anomaly became controversial, partly because the Songpan station is located at a great distance from the epicenter. In this study, based on the deformation anomaly characteristics, relationship between the seismogenic fault and the fault near the anomaly, and associated quantitative analyses, we concluded that this anomaly may be associated with the 2021 M_S7.4 Maduo earthquake. The duration and amplitude of this anomaly matched with the magnitude and epicenter distance of the Maduo earthquake. We have also interpreted the reason why the anomaly occurred near a fault that is obliquely intersected with the seismogenic fault and why the anomaly is located far from the earthquake epicenter.     

哈萨克斯坦扎尔干特-阿拉善30号井前兆异常特征

介绍了哈萨克斯坦扎尔干特阿拉善30号井的水文地球化学环境,对其15年来的交换资料进行了初步的统计与分析。结果表明,在震中距为300 km、400 km范围内,5级、6级地震的异常项目比例分别可达55.6%、61.1%,而7级大震(或6级震群)远兆的异常比例仅为16.7%。且在异常时间、异常形态上,5级、6级和7级地震(或6级震群)各有其特点和差异。     

2016年安徽无为MS3.0震群序列发震构造与震后趋势研究

首先通过模板匹配方法检测无为震群活动期间目录遗漏的地震事件,共识别出5次遗漏地震事件,震级为M_L0.5～1.2,得到了更为完整的地震目录;然后基于波形互相关震相检测技术标定震相到时,进而采用双差定位方法进行精定位,精定位后震群分布更加集中,未见明显的优势方位分布;采用Snoke方法计算震级较大地震的震源机制,结果表明,此次震群为NEE向的水平挤压与NNE向的水平拉张应力场作用下具逆冲分量的走滑型地震活动,严家桥-枫沙湖断裂可能为其发震构造;最后,计算了震群序列的视应力,结果显示,视应力和扣除震级影响后的差视应力随着震群序列的衰减逐渐恢复,因此,分析认为,随着无为震群序列的衰减,震源区发生更大地震的可能性不大。     

Lessons and Questions from Thirty Years of Testing the Precursory Swarm Hypothesis

In 1976 Frank Evison identified the first examples of earthquake swarms as long-term precursors of main-shock events, and thereby discovered the predictive scaling relations of long-term seismogenesis. From this time on, forecasting became the main focus of his research. After learning from an early attempt to communicate forecasts confidentially to government, he recognised the importance of hypothesis testing, and the precursory swarm hypothesis was cast in a form similar to a regional likelihood model. Tests of its performance relative to a stationary Poisson model at M ≥ 5.8 in New Zealand were begun in 1977. The initial hypothesis was that of a 1–1 relation between swarms and main-shock events. Following a study of the Japan catalogue, the generalised swarm hypothesis, in which multiple swarms were precursory to multiple main-shock events, was formulated. Tests of this form of the hypothesis at M ≥ 6.8 were initiated in a region of surveillance east of Japan in 1983. Eventually the generalised hypothesis was adopted in New Zealand also. In 1999, tests were begun in a region of Greece. In 1994–1995, several main-shock events favourable to the swarm hypothesis occurred, however four main-shock events near Arthur’s Pass, New Zealand, occurred without precursory swarms. Subsequent analysis showed that events called “quarms”, which were similar to swarms but more protracted in time, had preceded these events. This led to the proposal of a qualitative physical process to account for swarms, quarms and the predictive relations: A three-stage faulting process, in which a major crack induces aftercracks in its neighbourhood, just as a main shock induces aftershocks. An inference from this process was that the most general long-term precursor should be an increase of seismicity at similar magnitudes to the eventual aftershocks. It turned out that such a precursory scale increase nearly always occurs before major earthquakes and conforms to the predictive scaling relations. Setting aside the problem of identifying the scale increase before the major earthquake, the EEPAS (Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale) forecasting model was formulated. The success of this relatively weak model in forecasting major events in New Zealand, California, Japan and Greece shows that the predictive scaling relations are ubiquitous in earthquake catalogues. Although none of the formal tests of the swarm hypothesis were successful in their own terms, they were beneficial in identifying shortcomings in its formulation, thereby leading to improved understanding of long-term seismogenesis and a better forecasting model. Some puzzling aspects of the scaling relations are whether they vary regionally, and why the precursor area and aftershock area scale differently with magnitude. A more practical question is whether the EEPAS model can be strengthened, by making use of the clustering of some precursors in swarms and quarms, to bring us nearer to the original goal of forecasting individual major earthquakes.     

Radon Precursory Signals for Some Earthquakes of Magnitude > 5 Occurred in N-W Himalaya: An Overview

The N-W Himalaya was rocked by a few major and many minor earthquakes. Two major earthquakes in Garhwal Himalaya: Uttarkashi earthquake of magnitude M_s= 7.0 (m_b = 6.6) on October 20, 1991 in Bhagirthi valley and Chamoli earthquake of M_s= 6.5 (m_b = 6.8) on March 29, 1999 in the Alaknanda valley and one in Himachal Himalaya: Chamba earthquake of magnitude 5.1 on March 24, 1995 in Chamba region, were recorded during the last decade and correlated with radon anomalies. The helium anomaly for Chamoli earthquake was also recorded and the Helium/Radon ratio model was tested on it. The precursory nature of radon and helium anomalies is a strong indicator in favor of geochemical precursors for earthquake prediction and a preliminary test for the Helium/Radon ratio model.     

Historical seismogram reproductions for the source parameters determination of the 1902, Atushi (Kashgar) earthquake

The majority of original seismograms recorded at the very beginning of instrumental seismology (the early 1900s) did not survive till present. However, a number of books, bulletins, and catalogs were published including the seismogram reproductions of some, particularly interesting earthquakes. In case these reproductions contain the time and amplitude scales, they can be successfully analyzed the same way as the original records. Information about the Atushi (Kashgar) earthquake, which occurred on August 22, 1902, is very limited. We could not find any original seismograms for this earthquake, but 12 seismograms from 6 seismic stations were printed as example records in different books. These data in combination with macroseismic observations and different bulletins information published for this earthquake were used to determine the source parameters of the earthquake. The earthquake epicenter was relocated at 39.87° N and 76.42° E with the hypocenter depth of about 18 km. We could further determine magnitudes m _B = 7.7 ± 0.3, M _S = 7.8 ± 0.4, M _W = 7.7 ± 0.3 and the focal mechanism of the earthquake with strike/dip/rake ? 260°± 20/30°± 10/90°± 10. This study confirms that the earthquake likely had a smaller magnitude than previously reported (M8.3). The focal mechanism indicates dominant thrust faulting, which is in a good agreement with presumably responsible Tuotegongbaizi-Aerpaleike northward dipping thrust fault kinematic, described in previous studies.     

Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional,Mexico Earthquake of 20 March 2012 (Mw 7.5): A preliminary report

An analysis of local and regional data produced by the shallow, thrust Ometepec-Pinotepa Nacional earthquake (M_w 7.5) of 20 March 2012 shows that it nucleated at 16.254°N 98.531°W, about 5 km offshore at a depth of about 20 km. During the first 4 seconds the slip was relatively small. It was followed by rupture of two patches with large slip, one updip of the hypocenter to the SE and the other downdip to the north. Total rupture area, estimated from inversion of near-source strong-motion recordings, is ~25 km × 60 km. The earthquake was followed by an exceptionally large number of aftershocks. The aftershock area overlaps with that of the 1982 doublet (M_w 7.0, 6.9). However, the seismic moment of the 2012 earthquake is ~3 times the sum of the moments of the doublet, indicating that the gross rupture characteristics of the two earthquake episodes differ. The small-slip area near the hypocenter and large-slip areas of the two patches are characterized by relatively small aftershock activity. A striking, intense, linear NE alignment of the aftershocks is clearly seen. The radiated energy to seismic moment ratios, (E_s/M₀), of five earthquakes in the region reveal that they are an order of magnitude smaller for near-trench earthquakes than those that occur further downdip (e.g., 2012 and the 1995 Copala earthquakes). The near-trench earthquakes are known to produce low A_max. The available information suggests that the plate interface in the region can be divided in three domains. (1) From the trench to a distance of about 35 km downdip. In this domain M~6 to 7 earthquakes with low values of (E_s/M₀) occur. These events generate large number of aftershocks. It is not known whether the remaining area on this part of the interface slips aseismically (stable sliding) or is partially locked. (2) From 35 to 100 km from the trench. This domain is seismically coupled where stick-slip sliding occurs, generating large earthquakes. Part of the area is probably conditionally stable. (3) From 100 to 200 km from the trench. In this domain slow slip events (SSE) and nonvolcanic tremors (NVT) have been reported.The earthquake caused severe damage in and near the towns of Ometepec and Pinotepa Nacional. The PGA exceeded 1 g at a soft site in the epicentral region. Observed PGAs on hard sites as a function of distance are in reasonable agreement with the expected ones from ground motion prediction equations derived using data from Mexican interplate earthquakes. The earthquake was strongly felt in Mexico City. PGA at CU, a hard site in the city, was 12 gal. Strong-motion recordings in the city since 1985 demonstrate that PGAs during the 2012 earthquake were not exceptional, and that similar motion occurs about once in three years.     

On the Application of Mwp in the Near Field and the March 11, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

Tsunami Warning Centers issue rapid and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal populations by estimating the location and size of the causative earthquake as soon as possible after rupture initiation. Both US Tsunami Warning Centers have therefore been using Mwp to issue Tsunami Warnings 5–10 min after Earthquake origin time since 2002. However, because Mwp (Tsuboi et al., Bulletin of the Seismological society of America 85:606–613, 1995) is based on the far-field approximation to the P-wave displacement due to a double couple point source, we should only very carefully apply Mwp to data obtained in the near field, at distances of less than a few wavelengths from the fault. On the other hand, the surface waves from Great Earthquakes, including those that occur just offshore of populated areas, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, clip seismographs located near the fault. Because the first arriving P-waves from such large events are often on scale, Mwp should provide useful information, even for these Great Earthquakes. We therefore calculate Mwp from 18 unclipped STS-1 broadband P-wave seismograms, recorded at 2–15° distance from the Tohoku epicenter to determine if Mwp can usefully estimate Mw for this earthquake, using data obtained close to the epicenter. In this case there should be a good chance to get reliable Mwp values for stations at epicentral distances of 9–10°, since the source duration for the Tohoku earthquake is less than 200 s and the time window used to estimate Mwp is 120 s in duration. Our analysis indicates that Mwp does indeed give reliable results (Mw ~ 9.1) beginning at about 11° distance from the epicenter. The values of Mwp from seismic waveforms obtained at 11–15° epicentral distance from the Mw 9.1 off the east coast of Tohuku earthquake of March 11, 2011 fell within the range 9.1–9.3, and were available within 4–5 min after origin time. Even the Mwp values of 7.7–8.4, obtained at less than 5° epicentral distance, exceed the PTWC’s threshold of Mw 7.6 for issuing a regional tsunami warning to coastal populations within 1,000 km of the epicenter, and of Mw 6.9 for issuing a local tsunami warning to the coastal populations of Hawaii.     

2016年8月21日-10月24日河北开平ML 4.7震群分析

2016年8月21日17时15分,河北省唐山市开平区（39.70°N,118.35°E）发生M_L 3.5地震,震源深度6 km。据河北省快报目录,8月21日至10月24日共发生可定位小震694次,最大地震为9月10日M_L 4.7地震。计算本次震群序列参数,分析其物理特性。精定位结果显示,M_L 4.7震群集中在唐山-古冶断裂,属唐山老震区余震活动。与该区同等震级地震相比,震群中几次3级以上地震视应力水平较低,震源机制一致性较好,表明该区存在较为一致的稳定应力场。震群活动显示,该震群为非典型前兆性震群。分析结果对正确了解此次震群特征及判断序列发展趋势具有较高的帮助作用。     

Characteristics of Soil Response in Near-Fault Zones During the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake

Distribution of parameters characterizing soil response during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake (M _w = 7.6) around the fault plane is studied. The results of stochastic finite-fault simulations performed in Pavlenko and Wen (2008) and constructed models of soil behavior at 31 soil sites were used for the estimation of amplification of seismic waves in soil layers, average stresses, strains, and shear moduli reduction in the upper 30 m of soil, as well as nonlinear components of soil response during the Chi-Chi earthquake. Amplification factors were found to increase with increasing distance from the fault (or, with decreasing the level of “input” motion to soil layers), whereas average stresses and strains, shear moduli reduction, and nonlinear components of soil response decrease with distance as ~ r ^?1 . The area of strong nonlinearity, where soil behavior is substantially nonlinear (the content of nonlinear components in soil response is more than ~40–50% of the intensity of the response), and spectra of oscillations on the surface take the smoothed form close to E(f) ~ f ^?n , is located within ~20–25 km from the fault plane (~ 1/4 of its length). Nonlinearity decreases with increasing distance from the fault, and at ~40–50 km from the fault (~ 1/2 of the fault length), soil response becomes virtually linear. Comparing soil behavior in near-fault zones during the 1999 Chi-Chi, the 1995 Kobe (M _w = 6.8), and the 2000 Tottori (Japan) (M _w = 6.7) earthquakes, we found similarity in the behavior of similar soils and predominance of the hard type of soil behavior. Resonant phenomena in upper soil layers were observed at many studied sites; however, during the Chi-Chi earthquake they involved deeper layers (down to ~ 40–60 m) than during lesser-magnitude Kobe and Tottori earthquakes.