Global Estimates of Changes in the Terrestrial Water Balance Components in the Context of Possible Climate Changes

Water Resources - Materials of ISI-MIP International Project were used for global simulations of water balance components for the entire Earth surface (except for Antarctica) with a spatial...     

Phenological Responses to ENSO in the Global Oceans

Phenology relates to the study of timing of periodic events in the life cycle of plants or animals as influenced by environmental conditions and climatic forcing. Phenological metrics provide information essential to quantify variations in the life cycle of these organisms. The metrics also allow us to estimate the speed at which living organisms respond to environmental changes. At the surface of the oceans, microscopic plant cells, so-called phytoplankton, grow and sometimes form blooms, with concentrations reaching up to 100 million cells per litre and extending over many square kilometres. These blooms can have a huge collective impact on ocean colour, because they contain chlorophyll and other auxiliary pigments, making them visible from space. Phytoplankton populations have a high turnover rate and can respond within hours to days to environmental perturbations. This makes them ideal indicators to study the first-level biological response to environmental changes. In the Earth’s climate system, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates large-scale inter-annual variations in environmental conditions. It serves as a natural experiment to study and understand how phytoplankton in the ocean (and hence the organisms at higher trophic levels) respond to climate variability. Here, the ENSO influence on phytoplankton is estimated through variations in chlorophyll concentration, primary production and timings of initiation, peak, termination and duration of the growing period. The phenological variabilities are used to characterise phytoplankton responses to changes in some physical variables: sea surface temperature, sea surface height and wind. It is reported that in oceanic regions experiencing high annual variations in the solar cycle, such as in high latitudes, the influence of ENSO may be readily measured using annual mean anomalies of physical variables. In contrast, in oceanic regions where ENSO modulates a climate system characterised by a seasonal reversal of the wind forcing, such as the monsoon system in the Indian Ocean, phenology-based mean anomalies of physical variables help refine evaluation of the mechanisms driving the biological responses and provide a more comprehensive understanding of the integrated processes.     

On Creating Global Gridded Terrestrial Water Budget Estimates from Satellite Remote Sensing

The increasing availability and reliability of satellite remote sensing products [e.g., precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and the total water storage change (TWSC)] make it feasible to estimate the global terrestrial water budget at fine spatial resolution. In this study, we start from a reference water budget dataset that combines all available data sources, including satellite remote sensing, land surface model (LSM) and reanalysis, and investigate the roles of different non-satellite remote sensing products in closing the terrestrial water budget through a sensitivity analysis by removing/replacing one or more categories of products during the budget estimation. We also study the differences made by various satellite products for the same budget variable. We find that the gradual removal of non-satellite data sources will generally worsen the closure errors in the budget estimates, and remote sensing retrievals of P, ET, and TWSC together with runoff (R) from LSM give the worst closure errors. The gauge-corrected satellite precipitation helps to improve the budget closure (4.2–9 % non-closure errors of annual mean precipitation) against using the non-gauge-corrected precipitation (7.6–10.4 % non-closure errors). At last, a data assimilation technique, the constrained Kalman filter, is applied to enforce the water balance, and it is found that the satellite remote sensing products, though with worst closure, yield comparable budget estimates in the constrained system to the reference data. Overall, this study provides a first comparison between the water budget closure using the satellite remote sensing products and a full combination of remote sensing, LSM, and reanalysis products on a quasi-global basis. This study showcases the capability and potential of the satellite remote sensing in closing the terrestrial water budget at fine spatial resolution if properly constrained.     

Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies Associated with Drought in Southwestern USA from GPS Observations

The Earth’s surface fluid mass redistribution, e.g., groundwater depletion and severe drought, causes the elastic surface deformation, which can be measured by global positioning system (GPS). In this paper, the continuous GPS observations are used to estimate the terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes in southwestern USA, which have a good agreement with TWS changes derived from Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and hydrological models. The seasonal variation is mostly located in the Rocky mountain range and Mississippi river watershed. The largest amplitude of the seasonal variation is between 12 and 15 cm in equivalent water thickness. The timing and duration of TWS anomalies caused by the severe drought in 2012 are observed by the GPS-derived TWS, which are confirmed by the GRACE results. Different hydrological models are further used for comparison with GPS and GRACE results. The magnitude of TWS depletion from GRACE and GPS observations during the drought is larger than that from hydrological models, which indicates that the drought was caused by comparable groundwater and surface water depletion. The interannual TWS changes from GPS are also consistent with the precipitation pattern over the past 6 years, which further confirms the severe drought in 2012. This study demonstrates that continuous GPS observations have the potential as real-time drought indicator.     

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth’s surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.     

Global change hydrology: Terrestrial water cycle and global change

1.Introduction Global Change Hydrology(GCH)is an emerging interdisciplinary field that links global change research and hydrology.GCH integrates hydrology,climatology,and geography to study the interactions between the terrestrial water cycle and global change across various time and space scales.The main objective of GCH is to understand the natural and anthropogenic causes of the changing terrestrial water cycle and the associated influences and feedbacks in the Earth system.     

Water Storage Changes over the Tibetan Plateau Revealed by GRACE Mission

We use GRACE gravity data released by the Center for Space Research (CSR) and the Groupe de Recherches en Geodesie Spatiale (GRGS) to detect the water storage changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A combined filter strategy is put forward to process CSR RL05 data to remove the effect of striping errors. After the correction for GRACE by GLDAS and ICE-5G, we find that TP has been overall experiencing the water storage increase during 2003–2012. During the same time, the glacier over the Himalayas was sharply retreating. Interms of linear trends, CSR’s results derived by the combined filter are close to GRGS RL03 with the Gaussian filter of 300-km window. The water storage increasing rates determined from CSR’s RL05 products in the interior TP, Karakoram Mountain, Qaidam Basin, Hengduan Mountain, and middle Himalayas are 9.7, 6.2, 9.1,–18.6, and–20.2 mm/yr, respectively. These rates from GRGS’s RL03 products are 8.6, 5.8, 10.5,–19.3 and–21.4 mm/yr, respectively.     

全球大陆末次盛冰期气候和植被研究进展

略述了鄱阳湖围垦的简要历史和现状,分析了近５０年来洪水水位的演变趋势,指出围垦使鄱阳湖面积和容积缩小,调蓄功能衰退,以致水情不断恶化,洪峰水位逐渐上升,高水位的出现频率明显加大,致灾洪水越来越频繁,在此基础上,将围垦对洪水位的影响进行了分析计算,得出了各典型年洪水在不同围垦背景下的围垦效应值。     

Local Ionospheric Modeling Using the Localized Global Ionospheric Map and Terrestrial GPS

global ionosphere maps are generated on a daily basis at CODE using data from about 200 GPS/GLONASS sites of the IGS and other institutions. The vertical total electron content is modeled in a solargeomagnetic reference frame using a spherical harmonics expansion up to degree and order 15. The spherical Slepian basis is a set of bandlimited functions which have the majority of their energy concentrated by optimization inside an arbitrarily defined region, yet remain orthogonal within the spatial region of interest. Hence, they are suitable for decomposing the spherical harmonic models into the portions that have significant strength only in the selected areas. In this study, the converted spherical harmonics to the Slepian bases were updated by the terrestrial GPS observations by use of the least-squares estimation with weighted parameters for local ionospheric modeling. Validations show that the approach adopted in this study is highly capable of yielding reliable results.     

Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data

West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management. Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162 days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near-real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections.     

Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends,Seasonal Cycle,Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes

Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.     

Use of the MODFLOW 6 Water Mover Package to Represent Natural and Managed Hydrologic Connections

The latest release of MODFLOW 6, the current core version of the MODFLOW groundwater modeling software, debuted a new package dubbed the “mover” (MVR). Using a generalized approach, MVR facilitates the transfer of water among any arbitrary combination of simulated features (i.e., pumping wells, stream, drains, lakes, etc.) within a MODFLOW 6 simulation. Four “rules” controlling the amount of water transferred from a providing feature to a receiving feature are currently available. In this way, MVR can represent natural connections between features, for example, streams entering or exiting lakes, and perhaps more interestingly, it also can transfer water among simulated features to more accurately simulate water management. An example model representative of an agricultural setting demonstrates some of the available MVR connections. For example, an irrigation event that transfers surface water from an irrigation delivery ditch to multiple cropped areas demonstrates a “one-to-many” connection that is possible within MVR. Conversely, irrigation or precipitation runoff from multiple fields may be routed to a particular stream segment using “many-to-one” MVR connections. MVR supports many additional connection types, several of which are demonstrated by the included example problem.     

Predicting Water Table Response to Rainfall Events,Central Florida

A rise in water table in response to a rainfall event is a complex function of permeability, specific yield, antecedent soil‐water conditions, water table level, evapotranspiration, vegetation, lateral groundwater flow, and rainfall volume and intensity. Predictions of water table response, however, commonly assume a linear relationship between response and rainfall based on cumulative analysis of water level and rainfall logs. By identifying individual rainfall events and responses, we examine how the response/rainfall ratio varies as a function of antecedent water table level (stage) and rainfall event size. For wells in wetlands and uplands in central Florida, incorporating stage and event size improves forecasting of water table rise by more than 30%, based on 10 years of data. At the 11 sites studied, the water table is generally least responsive to rainfall at smallest and largest rainfall event sizes and at lower stages. At most sites the minimum amount of rainfall required to induce a rise in water table is fairly uniform when the water table is within 50 to 100 cm of land surface. Below this depth, the minimum typically gradually increases with depth. These observations can be qualitatively explained by unsaturated zone flow processes. Overall, response/rainfall ratios are higher in wetlands and lower in uplands, presumably reflecting lower specific yields and greater lateral influx in wetland sites. Pronounced depth variations in rainfall/response ratios appear to correlate with soil layer boundaries, where corroborating data are available.     

Seasonal Water Storage Variations as Impacted by Water Abstractions: Comparing the Output of a Global Hydrological Model with GRACE and GPS Observations

Better quantification of continental water storage variations is expected to improve our understanding of water flows, including evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharge as well as human water abstractions. For the first time, total water storage (TWS) on the land area of the globe as computed by the global water model WaterGAP (Water Global Assessment and Prognosis) was compared to both gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) and global positioning system (GPS) observations. The GRACE satellites sense the effect of TWS on the dynamic gravity field of the Earth. GPS reference points are displaced due to crustal deformation caused by time-varying TWS. Unfortunately, the worldwide coverage of the GPS tracking network is irregular, while GRACE provides global coverage albeit with low spatial resolution. Detrended TWS time series were analyzed by determining scaling factors for mean annual amplitude (f _GRACE) and time series of monthly TWS (f _GPS). Both GRACE and GPS indicate that WaterGAP underestimates seasonal variations of TWS on most of the land area of the globe. In addition, seasonal maximum TWS occurs 1 month earlier according to WaterGAP than according to GRACE on most land areas. While WaterGAP TWS is sensitive to the applied climate input data, none of the two data sets result in a clearly better fit to the observations. Due to the low number of GPS sites, GPS observations are less useful for validating global hydrological models than GRACE observations, but they serve to support the validity of GRACE TWS as observational target for hydrological modeling. For unknown reasons, WaterGAP appears to fit better to GPS than to GRACE. Both GPS and GRACE data, however, are rather uncertain due to a number of reasons, in particular in dry regions. It is not possible to benefit from either GPS or GRACE observations to monitor and quantify human water abstractions if only detrended (seasonal) TWS variations are considered. Regarding GRACE, this is mainly caused by the attenuation of the TWS differences between water abstraction variants due to the filtering required for GRACE TWS. Regarding GPS, station density is too low. Only if water abstractions lead to long-term changes in TWS by depletion or restoration of water storage in groundwater or large surface water bodies, GRACE may be used to support the quantification of human water abstractions.     

Large-Scale Total Water Storage and Water Flux Changes over the Arid and Semiarid Parts of the Middle East from GRACE and Reanalysis Products

Previous studies indicate that water storage over a large part of the Middle East has been decreased over the last decade. Variability in the total (hydrological) water flux (TWF, i.e., precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus runoff) and water storage changes of the Tigris–Euphrates river basin and Iran’s six major basins (Khazar, Persian, Urmia, Markazi, Hamun, and Sarakhs) over 2003–2013 is assessed in this study. Our investigation is performed based on the TWF that are estimated as temporal derivatives of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products and those from the reanalysis products of ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land. An inversion approach is applied to consistently estimate the spatio-temporal changes of soil moisture and groundwater storage compartments of the seven basins during the study period from GRACE TWS, altimetry, and land surface model products. The influence of TWF trends on separated water storage compartments is then explored. Our results, estimated as basin averages, indicate negative trends in the maximums of TWF peaks that reach up to ?5.2 and ?2.6 (mm/month/year) over 2003–2013, respectively, for the Urmia and Tigris–Euphrates basins, which are most likely due to the reported meteorological drought. Maximum amplitudes of the soil moisture compartment exhibit negative trends of ?11.1, ?6.6, ?6.1, ?4.8, ?4.7, ?3.8, and ?1.2 (mm/year) for Urmia, Tigris–Euphrates, Khazar, Persian, Markazi, Sarakhs, and Hamun basins, respectively. Strong groundwater storage decrease is found, respectively, within the Khazar ?8.6 (mm/year) and Sarakhs ?7.0 (mm/year) basins. The magnitude of water storage decline in the Urmia and Tigris–Euphrates basins is found to be bigger than the decrease in the monthly accumulated TWF indicating a contribution of human water use, as well as surface and groundwater flow to the storage decline over the study area.     

Stress Changes due to Recent Seismic Events in the Central Apennines (Italy)

The Central Apennines, Italy, are characterized by moderate seismic activity on normal faults, oriented in directions parallel to the Apenninic chain. The subject of this study is the Umbria-Marche Apennines, a segment approximately 200-km long, where three main seismic events occurred in the last three decades. The 1979 Norcia earthquake was a M_w = 5.8 event, taking place at the south end of the considered segment. The 1984 Gubbio earthquake was a M_w = 5.6 event which took place at the north end. The 1997-1998 Colfiorito sequence constituted 8 main shocks with magnitudes M_w between 5 and 6 and epicenters located between the Gubbio and the Norcia earthquake areas. A model made of an elastic half-space is considered, in which the seismic sources are represented by rectangular dislocations which have the appropriate values of source parameters, and in which the static stress field produced by each event is calculated. The analysis of the Coulomb stress change (ΔC) as a function of time shows that the coseismic stress transfer and fault interaction played an important role in the region during the past three decades: 7 earthquakes of the 9 considered took place where ΔC>0. Such an interaction has been confirmed by the analysis of the aftershocks in the Colfiorito zone post September 26, 1997: about the 61% of the aftershocks considered took place where ΔC>0. The comparison between the ΔC^s due to the coseismic stress transfer and the rate ΔĊ^t due to the tectonic stress allows us to quantify the time advance of the earthquakes. The ΔC^s pattern shows positive values in two areas that can be regarded as historical seismic gaps.