气候和人为因素对植被变化影响的评价方法综述

系统评价气候变化和人为因素引起的植被退化,对有效开展生态工程建设、实现生态环境的可持续发展具有重要意义。目前绝大多研究主要分析气候因素对植被变化的影响,分析气候因素和人类活动对植被变化的双重影响少有研究。本文主要介绍这一双重影响对植被变化的贡献程度的主要研究方法——定性-半定量法、回归分析法、残差趋势法、基于净第一生产力的评价方法。综述分析了气候和人为因素对植被变化驱动的主要结论,总结目前各研究方法存在的问题,提出了未来需要重点加强气候和人为因素对植被变化驱动因素的分解研究,加强模型评价和不确定性量化研究等。     

近现代阿拉善荒漠气候变化与环境演变机制研究进展

阿拉善荒漠深居内陆,属暖温带荒漠气候,是典型的大陆性干旱区。区内集中了巴丹吉林、腾格里、乌兰布和三大沙漠,发源于青藏高原北部的两条内陆河尾闾深入其间。该区域是中国沙尘暴主要源区和西北重要路径之一,是国家“两屏三带”生态安全战略格局“北方防沙带”的重点区域。系统认识区域气候变化、环境演变及其驱动机制,对区域沙化土地治理及其决策具有重要现实意义。本文综述了器测和代用指标记录的近现代区域气候变化特征及其大气环流影响机制、区域及典型景观等环境演变特征、环境演变驱动机制和驱动因子贡献率量化方法等几个方面的研究进展,并提出了今后研究和关注的重点。     

The influence of geological fabric and scale on drainage pattern analysis in a catchment of metamorphic terrain: Laceys Creek, southeast Queensland, Australia

The relationship between geological fabric and drainage patterns in the 81.8 km² Laceys Creek sub-catchment of the North Pine River catchment, southeast Queensland, Australia, is analysed using a new channel–ordination system. The Laceys Creek catchment is situated on the South D'Aguilar Block, which underwent metamorphism, faulting and uplift from the Late Carboniferous to Late Triassic. The catchment drains exposures of two main rock units, the Neranleigh–Fernvale Beds and the Bunya Phyllite. Both units are composed of metamorphosed deep-sea sediments that accumulated as an accretionary wedge during late Palaeozoic subduction of the palaeo-Pacific plate under the eastern margin of the Australian craton. The new channel ordination system used in this study allows improved classification of stream segments of equal prominence or rank in comparison to previous schemes. A 10 m contour digital elevation model (DEM) was produced within which drainage channels were digitised. Planar geological features, including bedding, faults, joints and cleavage, were mapped in the field and collated with data from previous geological mapping programs.Regional and local trends of geological fabric are reflected in the variable orientation of channels of different rank in the catchment. Cleavage and fractures are the dominant planar features of the Bunya Phyllite and these correlate most closely with the orientation of middle-order incised stream segments. In contrast, middle-order channels on the Neranleigh–Fernvale Beds most closely correlate with bedding, which dominates the fabric of this unit. Although anthropogenic factors exert local influence and climatic processes exert broad influence on the catchment, this study focuses on structural and lithological fabrics, which are the apparent dominant controls on middle-order channel orientations. Identification of congruent patterns between bedrock fabric and channel ranks is variable, depending on the scale and number of channels included in the analysis. Many low-rank channels correspond closely to the orientation of fine-scale bedding and foliation and these influences may not be detected by coarse-scale mapping. Understanding the extent of geological controls on the morphology of a catchment may assist geo-hazard identification, land-use planning and civil-engineering projects.     

经济形态演变对海洋海岛生态环境的影响——以美国海峡群岛为例

海洋海岛生态环境脆弱,一旦遭受破坏难以修复。人类社会历经原始经济时代、农业经济时代、工业经济时代和知识经济时代,经济形态的演变影响着人类生存的生态环境。以美国海峡群岛为例,以时间和事件两个维度对海岛生态环境破坏、生态修复和环境保护进行梳理,侧重于知识经济时代在国家公园管理局管理下的生态修复和环境保护。其中信息知识、生态文明、高新技术是海峡群岛实现生态回归的重要因素。海峡群岛的发展历程和后期的生态修复与管理为其他国家海洋海岛经济发展提供借鉴。     

1961—2012年甘肃省干湿变化特征及其影响因子

基于1961—2012年甘肃省和青海省祁连山区54个气象站逐日气象数据,分析了甘肃省地表湿润指数的时空变化特征及各气象要素对不同区域干湿变化的影响程度.结果表明:近52年,以黄河为界,甘肃东、西部呈现出不同的干湿变化趋势,河东地区趋于干旱,尤其是陇中和陇东部分地区;河西部分区域趋于湿润,尤其是祁连山中部地区.河东变干主要是秋季显著变干,其中9月最突出;河西变湿主要是冬季变湿,尤其是在12月和1月.敏感性和贡献度分析表明,除降水量外,地表湿润指数对空气相对湿度的敏感性最高,其次是日照时数,再次是最高温度和平均风速,对最低温度的敏感性最低.近52年地表湿润指数-30％～30%的相对变化量中,降水量的贡献最大,贡献量在-30%～25%;其次是风速,贡献量在-4％～12%,最高温度、最低温度、日照时数以及相对湿度的贡献较小,在-4％～4%.     

1976-2007年青海省刚察县土地沙漠化驱动力分析

土地沙漠化是青海湖沿岸地区最严重的生态环境问题之一.本文选取青海湖北岸的刚察气象站19582007年的气象数据和刚察县1976-2007年的社会经济资料,对近30年来刚察县土地沙漠化的驱动力进行主成分分析.结果表明,1976-2007年,刚察县沙漠化土地面积的增加是自然因素和人为因素综合作用的结果,尤以年平均风速和耕地面积变量的贡献率最大.刚察县沙漠化土地的扩张在不同时间段的影响因素不同.1976 1987年,沙漠化面积的扩张是气温逐渐回暖、降水回升的过程中人为因素影响的结果;1987 1995年,沙漠化土地增加了17.28 km2,沙漠化土地的扩张是自然因素和人为因素叠加的结果,以自然因素为主导,人为因素起加剧的效果;1995 2007年,在暖湿、风速降低的气候环境下,沙漠化土地的扩张是人为因素作用的的结果.沙漠化扩张过程是高寒脆弱不稳定的生态系统在气候干湿波动、人类活动与沙漠化土地之间复杂的相互反馈作用下形成的.     

自然与人文交互作用下的干旱区典型绿洲耕地动态变化驱动力分析——以新疆于田绿洲为例

 绿洲是干旱区独特的自然景观,是人们生产生活的载体。如何在保持经济发展、提高人民生活水平的基础上保护有限的耕地资源,是关系到干旱区绿洲和谐以及可持续发展的重要问题。选取干旱区典型绿洲——于田县1949\_2004年的自然与人文统计资料,首先分析了五十余年来该县耕地变化的情况。然后从自然与人文两个角度对影响耕地面积变化的因子进行分析,结果表明,自然因素往往构成一定区域绿洲发展的基本限制,人为因素在短时期内,对耕地的变化起着决定性作用,这种作用如果顺应自然因素的限制,则对绿洲发展有利,绿洲稳定性增强;反之,绿洲稳定性减弱,由于新疆绿洲外围多为戈壁及沙漠,因此,对绿洲的利用要遵循自然规律,以保护绿洲为前提,合理利用水等自然资源,否则绿洲的面积随时都有可能缩小。     

沂河流域水文特征变化及其驱动因素

以沂河流域为研究区,运用水文特征参数时间序列法,分析1951—2002年流域降水、径流、洪峰流量等水文要素的演化趋势,通过临沂站50年来天然径流过程的回归模拟及其与实测径流的比较,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明：近50年来沂河流域年径流量和各月径流量显著减少,并且对降水波动的响应迟缓,而单次暴雨径流对降水反应敏感;10年尺度的降水波动中,径流随着降水的多少而发生相对一致的变化趋势,降水变化在一定程度上控制着径流的演化;但是20世纪60年代中期以来,临沂站实测径流的平均值减少了149mm,占天然径流量年平均值的51．6％,气候变化和人类活动对径流减少的贡献率分别为39．3％和60．7％。水利工程建设、土地利用变化、水资源开发利用等人类活动对径流产生更为深刻的影响。流域可持续发展要求在遵循水循环自然规律的基础上合理约束人类活动。     

Conceptualizing Anthropogenic Change in Fluvial Systems: Drainage Development on the Upper Embarras River,Illinois

While the geomorphic structure of many landscapes is materially molded, shaped and transformed by human practices, it is at the same time experienced and perceived through the mediation of cultural discourse and representation. The objective of this article is twofold: (1) to establish a conceptual framework for integrated analysis of human and geomorphic dimensions of landscape change; and (2) to illustrate the use of this framework in the assessment of a physical system severely affected by human agency. This perspective offers one way in which human agency can be synthesized and integrated into aspects of physical geography— specifically fluvial geomorphology— from both a conceptual and a pragmatic point of view. The upper Embarras River in east central Illinois, used as a case study, has been and continues to be physically affected by the cultural practice of agricultural drainage over the past century and a half.     

Channel bed adjustments following major aggradation in a steep headwater setting: findings from Oyabu Creek, Kyushu, Japan

A typhoon in 1993 induced major aggradation along Oyabu Creek, a steep, gravel bed mountain stream in Kyushu, Japan. Processes of sediment reworking are inferred from a 7-year monitoring program that measured adjustments to channel cross-sections, the longitudinal profile, and the extent/distribution of bedrock outcrops along a 3-km study reach. Over time, the reach adopted a riffle and pool structure, with notable increase in the area of exposed bedrock on the bed. This adjustment process was characterised by progressive reduction in sediment storage change per unit flow. The relaxation pathway following disturbance induced by the typhoon was shaped by the magnitude and frequency of subsequent rainfall events, the capacity of these events to transport available sediments, and physical linkages between reaches. Adjacent subreaches demonstrated differing relaxation pathways in response to these influences, induced by spatial and temporal variability in threshold conditions along the channel. Longer-term evidence indicates that responses to major disturbance, such as the 1993 typhoon, occur as ‘cycles’ of around 20-year duration. A relaxation period of 7 years is required to attain a quasi-equilibrium bed configuration and rate of sediment flux. The timeframe of cycles is considered to reflect changes to hillslope–channel bed coupling, marking the period required to generate sufficient sediment stores to reactivate phases of aggradation and subsequent degradation.     

Palaeoenyironments and human impact at Burraga Swamp in Montane rainforest,Barrington tops National Park,New South Wales,Australia

Palaeoecological studies have identified the broad patterns of environmental and climate change in highland south‐eastern Australia, but the detail of human impact on a variety of parameters and their interlinkages is largely missing. This study compares the erosion, productivity, fire and vegetation history in prehistoric and historical times at Burraga Swamp in montane rainforest in New South Wales. The known human impact is meagre; the major presently sustained impacts involve forestry in the surrounding sclerophyll forests and a low level of visits to the swamp by day‐walkers. While no significant changes in the largely oligotrophic conditions or in fire frequency were detected, changes in erosion rates and some vegetation change can be attributed to impacts since European settlement. There has been a small decline in eucalypts and a loss of fern cover, while grasses, Urtica and exotic species have expanded. It is clear that upland sites are sensitive to environmental change including low‐level human impact.     

Channel braiding and stability of the Brahmaputra River, Bangladesh, since 1967: GIS and remote sensing analyses

Spatial and temporal changes in channel distribution in the large, sandy, braided system of the Brahmaputra River, Bangladesh, were analyzed using satellite images and GIS. Supervised classification of the images within the braided belt, i.e., channels and bars between the bank-lines, provided raster land cover data for 14 different years between 1967 and 2002. The width of the braided-belt, the number and width of channels, the distribution of land cover attributes and land stability change were examined from the data. The results indicate that the recent history of the dynamics of the Brahmaputra can be divided into four phases: 1) the late 1960s to early 1970s, 2) the mid-1970s to early 1980s, 3) the mid-1980s to early 1990s, and 4) the mid-1990s to early 2000s. Spatial distributions of the land cover and channels in Phase 4 were the least complex suggesting a state of dynamic equilibrium. Land cover and channel distributions during Phase 2 were partly less complex indicating quasi-dynamic equilibrium. Phases 1 and 3 can be regarded as transitional phases with more complex conditions. Frequent large floods may have triggered significant changes in the river system during Phases 1 and 3.     

新疆洪旱灾害与大尺度气候强迫因子的联系

通过对新疆洪灾灾害历史资料和太阳黑子、ENSO事件年数据以及北大西洋涛动指数的分析,表明在太阳黑子极低值年或不活跃年,新疆易发生重大洪灾,而在太阳黑子低值年或相对不活跃年,新疆也易发生重大旱灾。近200a来,新疆重大洪旱灾害绝大部分都发生在太阳黑子的低谷时期。ENSO事件对新疆夏季降水的影响效应明显。因而该事件对新疆的洪旱灾害也产生了影响。对近50年来灾害统计资料分析显示,与拉尼娜年相比,在厄尔尼诺年新疆更易发生洪旱灾害。20世纪后半段新疆洪旱灾害指数与北大西洋涛动指数进行对比可以发现．夏季NAO指数与新疆洪水灾害之间存在大致上的反相关系。而冬季NAO指数与新疆干旱灾害之间存在比较明显的反相关系。     

内蒙古土地沙漠化与气候变化和人类活动

基于对内蒙古自治区沙漠化土地面积的动态、气候变化和社会经济发展状况的综合分析，认为内蒙古中东部地区的土地沙漠化主要是人类过度的，不合理利用造成的，而其西部地区的土地沙漠化主要是人为活动加速了自然沙漠化的进程，还进行了沙漠化有关概念的探讨，以利于沙漠化理论的深入研究及防治沙实践。     

气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述

气候变化和人类活动是导致沙漠化的两大驱动力,系统评价两者在沙漠化过程中的相对作用对于深入理解沙漠化过程的驱动力作用机理以及开展防沙治沙工作具有重要的意义。本研究从定性-半定量和定量研究两个方面对目前气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法进行了系统的梳理,认为目前的评价方法存在着主观性强、可重复操作性差、多基于行政单元而缺乏在连续的空间域上来评价气候变化和人类活动相对作用等不足。基于对以往研究的总结和笔者近阶段的相关研究成果,笔者认为开展气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的评价工作关键是突破两类驱动力相对作用在连续的空间域上进行评价和表达这一瓶颈的制约,并提出了以定量研究为核心,以NPP为衡量气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的公共指标,通过拆分“驱动力作用-沙漠化土地动态响应”这一生态过程为若干可能情景来构建气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法的思路。此外,在进行定量评价时,还需要考虑结果验证以及评价尺度这两个重点问题对评价结果和结论的影响     

气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率

一致性假设一直是洪水频率分析的基本假设条件,但在气候变化与人类活动综合影响下,水文极值序列的一致性假设受到极大挑战。基于此,以东江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型(广义可加模型),将时间、气候指标(北极涛动AO、北太平洋涛动NPO、太平洋年代际振荡PDO和南方涛动SOI)以及水库指标(Reservoir Index)统一纳入洪水频率分析中,并对东江流域1954―2009年年最大流量序列(AMS)进行频率分析,结果表明:1)龙川、河源和岭下站年最大流量序列均值与时间呈线性关系,方差为常量,而博罗站均值和方差与时间均呈非线性关系;2)水库对各水文站点AMS均值有显著线性影响;3)NPO对各站点AMS均值有显著线性影响,NPO值较高时,东江流域可能面临着较低的洪水风险,在一致性假设前提下,可能高估洪水设计值,反之亦然;而PDO对各站点方差有显著线性(岭下、博罗)/非线性(龙川、河源)影响;4)以时间为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究得出:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均呈单调下降趋势,博罗站1954―1995年左右洪水设计值呈下降趋势,而在1996―2009年呈上升趋势;以气候与水库为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究表明:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均因水库影响呈向下跃变;5)以气候和水库为协变量的非一致性模型对洪水频率具有良好的预测能力,为非一致条件下设计洪水的预测提供了新的预测方法。     

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Force Analysis of Vegetation Variation in Altay Prefecture based on Google Earth Engine

Quantitative evaluation and driving mechanism analysis of vegetation dynamics are essential for promoting regional sustainable development. In the past 20 years, the ecological environment in Altay Prefecture has changed significantly due to global warming. Meanwhile, with increasing human activities, the spatiotemporal pattern and driving forces of vegetation variation in the area are uncertain and difficult to accurately assess. Hence, we quantified the vegetation growth by using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on the Google Earth Engine (GEE). Then, the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed at the pixel scale. Finally, significance threshold segmentation was performed using meteorological data based on the correlation analysis results, and the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation variation were quantified. The results demonstrated that the vegetation coverage in Altay Prefecture is mainly concentrated in the north. The vegetation areas representing significant restoration and degradation from 2000 to 2019 accounted for 24.08% and 1.24% of Altay Prefecture, respectively. Moreover, spatial correlation analysis showed that the areas with significant correlations between NDVI and temperature, precipitation and sunlight hours accounted for 3.3%, 6.9% and 20.3% of Altay Prefecture, respectively. In the significant restoration area, 18.94% was dominated by multiple factors, while 3.4% was dominated by human activities, and 1.74% was dominated by climate change. Within the significant degradation area, abnormal degradation and climate change controlled 1.07% and 0.17%, respectively. This study revealed the dynamic changes of vegetation and their driving mechanisms in Altay Prefecture, and can provide scientific support for further research on life community mechanism theory and key remediation technology of mountain-water-forest-farmland-lake-grass in Altay Prefecture.     

气候变化对水质与水生态系统的潜在影响与挑战:以中国典型河流为例(英文)

气候变化对水质与水生态的潜在影响已经成为当前必须面对的新问题和新挑战,这也引起了世界各国科学家和政府的高度关注。但是,由于它的复杂性和不确定性,目前针对该问题的科学研究和科学实践仍然十分有限。本文首先回顾了近年来国内外相关研究成果,并指出了研究现状与现实需要之间的差距。另外,基于作者在淮河和汉江的相关研究成果,我们认为,人类活动和经济发展所产生的排污是造成水质与水生态恶化的最重要的原因,同时,气候变化在此基础上具有推波助澜的增益作用,气候变化主要通过改变水温和水文情势进而影响水质和水生态。本文最后讨论了适应性对策的内涵,认为适应性对策应该包括适应方式和适应能力建设两个主要方面,适应性对策应该尽可能地具有针对性和可操作性。本文对今后的相关研究可起澄清概念和指明方向的作用。     

Climate Change,Bushfire Risk,and Environmental Values: Examining a Potential Risk Perception Threshold in Peri-Urban South Australia

Striking a balance between the management of environmental risks and values is a challenge for decision-makers. If people perceive that environmental risks are increasing they may be willing to discount local values to manage those risks, so the identification of thresholds in risk perception in relation to specific behaviors could help to avoid policy failures. The complex relationships between perceptions of climate change and bushfire risks, environmental values and support for actions to mitigate local risks are presented for peri-urban regions in South Australia. The results of a household survey (N=988) suggest that a threshold of risk perception in relation to climate change and bushfire management has not been exceeded and people are broadly supportive of balanced management interventions. A minority of people still do not perceive that climate change is increasing bushfire risk, and are supportive of risk mitigation interventions even at the expense of local biodiversity. However, a larger group believe that climate change is a driver of bushfire risk, yet are still more likely to prioritize ecological values and are unwilling to discount those values for risk mitigation. Targeted communication could assist different groups to respond to gaps in knowledge and action to facilitate effective, differentiated interventions within forested landscapes on the margins of urban areas.     

气候与地表覆被变化对梭磨河流域水文影响的分析

分析了1960～1990年长江上游梭磨河流域气候和地表覆被变化及其对流域水文的影响。30年来，流域降水有所增加，有林地面积1957～1974年大幅下降，以后有所回升。有林地每公顷蓄积量由1957年的423m^3下降到1998年的177m^3，40年来林地质量不断下降，流域水文发生了明显的变化；年均流量自1972年以来不断上升，洪水频率、洪峰流量和土壤侵蚀模糊明显增加。