外商直接投资资金市场的地域结构研究

阐述了国际对外直接投资的基本形势和我国面临的挑战,剖析了对华直接投资的资金市场地域结构现状和变化特点,针对资金市场地域结构所的问题提出了基本对策。     

Factor analysis of trends in energy and metals production and consumption in developed and developing countries

This paper presents a methodology used to combine energy and mineral market variables between Less Developed Countries (LDCs) and Developed Countries (OECD) over the past 24 years (1966–1990). LDCs include all countries, except OECD and central planned economies (CIS) and other countries in Eastern Europe. This period permits a comprehensive view of the impact of the energy crisis and the changes in economic growth patterns, correlated with changes in trends of production and consumption of energy and metals in both country blocs. This complex relationship was evaluated by a factor model of consumption and production variables using the aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc industries. The following variables are used in the factor model: export dependence, geographic concentration of mining production, geographic concentration of refined demand, geographic concentration of refined production, import dependence, refined demand growth, stability of demand, income elasticity of refined demand, price stability, intensity of use, and intensity of energy. The model for all commodities shows that the factor scores projections for LDCs and OECD blocs depicted a clearly divergent trend after the two oil shocks (1973–1979), when the intensity of energy variable presents high loading in the factor. The results are in substantial agreement with findings that the demand for energy, as well as for metals, is growing more rapidly in LDCs than OECD.     

重庆市外商直接投资结构研究

在经过改革开放20多年利用外商直接投资的实践历程后,人们关注的重点已经由外商直接投资的数量转向了质量。分析和研究外商直接投资的结构将是判断外商直接投资质量的重要途径之一。文章对重庆市利用外商直接投资的基本特征和地位进行了总结,并对外商直接投资的结构从5个方面进行了研究。在此基础上,提出了重庆市今后进一步积极、合理和有效地利用外商直接投资的对策建议。     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ITS IMPACT ON CHINA''S ECONOMY: A RESEARCH APPRAISAL

Ｓｉｎｃｅｔｈｅｒｅｆｏｒｍｐｏｌｉｃｉｅｓｃｏｍｍｅｎｃｅｄｉｎ1979,ｏｖｅｒｓｅａｓｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔｉｎＣｈｉｎａｈａｓｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｄｒａｐｉｄｌｙ.Ｃｈｉｎａｈａｓｎｏｗｂｅｃｏｍｅｔｈｅｓｅｃｏｎｄｌａｒｇｅｓｔｆｏｒｅｉｇｎｄｉｒｅｃｔｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔ(ＦＤＩ)ｒｅｃｉｐｉｅｎｔｉｎｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄ,ｅｘｃｅｅｄｅｄｏｎｌｙｂｙｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓ.ＢｙｔｈｅｅｎｄｏｆＭａｒｃｈ1996,ｔｈｅｆｏｒｅｉｇｎｆｕｎｄｅｄｅｎｔｅｒｐｒｉｓｅｓｔｏｔａｌｌｅｄ260,000,ａｎｄｒ…     

湖南省外商直接投资区位与全国各省市的比较

以我国东、中、西部有典型代表的10省市与湖南省为研究对象,设定有代表性的区位因素指标,运用灰色关联对各省市外商直接投资区位进行实证分析,通过相关因素的横向分析和对比来探讨湖南省外商直接投资区位条件。结果表明:经济规模和市场容量、区域的全球化水平和外贸依存度、信息化发展程度和基础设施状况、地理区位和区位惯性基本上决定了外商直接投资在我国的区位选择;工业化水平、劳动力成本、城市化水平、市场化程度、第三产业发展水平对外商直接投资的区位选择有一定的影响。湖南省在信息化发展水平和基础设施、人力资源、科技、第三产业发展水平上有一定的优势,劣势则表现在外贸依存度、融资能力、工业化发展水平等。     

TAIWANESE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND TRADE WITH THAILAND

Thailand has one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and an important factor contributing to this phenomenal growth is foreign direct investment (FDI). Taiwan's investment in Thailand, led by small and medium sized companies in labour intensive and relatively low technology industries, has increased dramatically since 1986. While Western multinational companies have been interested in using FDI to expand their markets in the host country, Taiwanese FDI — in a pattern similar to Japanese FDI of the 1970s — has been taking place in selected developing countries to lower production costs and export manufactured products to third country markets. Taiwan's exports to Thailand have also shown a marked increase since the Taiwanese government allowed large scale FDI in 1986. Although small at the global scale, Taiwanese investment in Thailand has contributed to an increasingly integrated East Asian economy.     

Trust,Trustworthiness, and Motivation in the Natural Resource Management Context

Trust is critical for natural resource management (NRM). In recognition of this, a noteworthy body of literature has investigated the construct but is, as yet, still developing. The current research proposes and tests an increasingly complete model that integrates the major advances in not only the NRM literature but in the social psychological literature addressing trust more generally as well. To that end, the current analyses were conducted with a large sample of Michigan hunters (n?=?23,954). The results suggest that, as hypothesized, the theoretical model is a statistically defensible account of trust in this context and suggest that both trustworthiness and motivation have important roles to play in driving cooperation intention and behavior. Thus, the current work suggests that although it is important for NRM institutions to attend to their trustworthiness, they should not ignore the motivation that arises from benefits they provide.     

基于关系视角的中国对外直接投资研究进展与展望

基于关系视角梳理了国内外对外直接投资的研究进展,认为已有的传统理论在解释中国企业对外投资方面虽仍起作用,但难以解释中国跨国企业缺乏所有权优势、快速的国际化步伐和依赖社会关系网络等显著特征,因此必须用中国特有的变量加以补充解释;一方面,文章重点综述了基于合同和契约建立的正式关系网络,强调政治关系和经济关系对中国企业对外直接投资的影响;另一方面,深入探讨基于情感和血缘建立的非正式关系网络对企业跨国投资的影响,认为华人华侨网络是影响中国对外直接投资具有中国特色的关键变量,能帮助企业有效地了解当地制度与文化,实现地方嵌入。最后,提出针对中国特点的中国企业对外直接投资的研究方向：1）建构基于中国特色的企业对外直接投资理论框架;2）基于关系视角的中国企业对外直接投资需要进一步探讨;3）基于族裔网络关系视角的对外直接投资研究有待探索。     

Accounting for Depletion of Oil and Gas Resources in Malaysia

Since oil and gas are non-renewable resources, it is important to identify the extent to which they have been depleted. Such information will contribute to the formulation and evaluation of appropriate sustainable development policies. This paper provides an assessment of the changes in the availability of oil and gas resources in Malaysia by first compiling the physical balance sheet for the period 2000–2007, and then assessing the monetary balance sheets for the said resource by using the Net Present Value method. Our findings show serious reduction in the value of oil reserves from 2001 to 2005, due to changes in crude oil prices, and thereafter the depletion rates decreased. In the context of sustainable development planning, albeit in the weak sustainability sense, it will be important to ascertain if sufficient reinvestments of the estimated resource rents in related or alternative capitals are being attempted by Malaysia. For the study period, the cumulative resource rents were to the tune of RM61 billion. Through a depletion or resource rents policy, the estimated quantum may guide the identification of a reinvestment threshold (after considering needed capital investment for future development of the industry) in light of ensuring the future productive capacity of the economy at the time when the resource is exhausted.     

The spatial dynamics of foreign investment in the Pearl River Delta, south China

The Pearl River Delta region in south China has experienced dramatic economic development, industrialization and urbanization since the late 1970s. Foreign investment, especially the capital from Hong Kong, has been one of the major driving forces underlying the process. The spatial concentration/diffusion of foreign investment in a region also has important bearing on the balanced/unbalanced urban and regional development. This issue remains unexamined and critical analysis is needed to unveil the spatial impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) activities in China. This paper will focus on the Pearl River Delta region to examine the spatial diffusion and the determinants of foreign investment. The diffusion of foreign investment from the provincial capital, Guangzhou and two special economic zones near Hong Kong to surrounding areas is clearly identified. The diffusion is the result of the widespread implementation of open-door policy in the region and significant improvement in infrastructure. Four models of foreign investment are developed to explain the spatial incidence of foreign investment in the region. The findings of this paper can shed light on the regional development process in China and other developing countries under the influence of foreign capital.     

基于地级市尺度的中国外资空间动态与本土产业演化

伴随着全球化不断深入,国际劳动分工体系下全球生产网络逐步形成,推动跨国公司以外资直接投资为途径在全球范围内寻找有利区位。低廉的要素成本、友好的政策制度以及广阔的潜在市场使得发展中国家成为外资活跃的重要地区。外资空间动态不仅涉及发展中国家对接全球生产网络的效果,更关系到其生产格局的演变。而演化理论下的技术邻近度也会对外资空间动态和本土产业演化产生作用,使之呈现出更多样的空间差异。本文基于1998-2008年中国337个地级市的制造业数据,研究内、外资技术邻近度作用下外资空间动态对本土产业演化的影响,研究发现：①外资进入、退出等空间动态显著促进了中国本土产业演化,其中中西部最强,东部最弱,东北地区外资进入作用相对明显。②技术邻近度削弱了外资空间动态对本土产业演化的积极影响,但具体到不同区域也会出现差异。东部地区的技术关联反而有利于外资进入带来的知识溢出和外资退出带来的资源释放,表现为典型的“战略耦合”。而中部、西部和东北地区的技术关联则成为阻碍外资进入、退出促进内资产业发展的重要原因。     

美国对外直接投资的区域和行业分布变化

本文对20年来美国对外直接投资的区域和行业分布特征的研究表明：20世纪90年代是美国对外直接投资持续快速增长期；欧洲、拉美和加拿大是美国主要的投资区，集中了总投资的80％；从对外投资的行业分布特征来看，集中在制造业和金融、保险、房地产业，特别是金融、保险和房地产业所占比重持续上升。对外商直接投资区域和行业分布特征的研究，应从宏观经济和微观企业层面相结合的角度进行分析，才能把握跨国公司对外投资的实质。通过对跨国公司投资行为的时空变化研究，相对落后国家可以制定相应的政策，吸引投资，促进本国经济的发展。     

德国在华知识密集制造业投资进入方式的时空特征及区位影响因素

外资知识密集型制造业进入中国市场,对中国制造业升级转型起着一定的作用。本文围绕区域制度环境和区域吸收能力,探讨影响知识密集型企业进入方式的区域环境,旨在揭示知识密集型产业的外商进入方式的地理驱动机制,有利于加深理解在经济发展方式转型的时代背景下,区域与城市获得外生技术发展动力的机制。采用从1982-2014年德国在华投资企业数据库,结果发现,德国知识密集型制造企业在中国的投资呈现由沿海地区向内陆地区扩张、沿海中心城市向周边城市扩散的时空趋势,并且在1995年后,其进入方式从合资为主向独资为主转变。逻辑计量模型显示,德国知识密集型制造企业的进入方式受到多项区位因子的影响,其中地方人力资源水平和产业专业化水平是知识密集型制造企业选择以合资方式的进入中国市场的重要区位因素,表明区域知识吸收能力是形成全球—地方战略协同的关键变量;另一方面,实际使用外资存量和地方专利授权量这两个区位影响因素则会显著促成知识密集型制造企业采用独资的进入决策,反映了区域制度环境对吸引以知识产权保护为战略核心的知识密集型制造业的作用。     

非洲外商直接投资的时空变化与影响因素

基于2006—2017年非洲52个国家FDI数据以及其经济、政治、资源等数据,运用泰尔指数和面板数据固定效应模型对非洲外商直接投资的时空变化与影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明：1）非洲FDI流入量整体呈现出波动上升的趋势,其中北非呈现下降趋势,西非和中非呈现出波动上升的趋势,东非的上升趋势相对稳定且强势,南部非洲地区波动变化显著,趋势不明显;随着非洲经济发展,五大区域中北非和西非的FDI流入量最多,呈现出“两强三弱”的区域分布格局。2）非洲FDI总体差异呈现出缓慢上升趋势,年际变化呈现出“减—增—减”的波动;影响FDI总体差异的主要因素是区域内部差异,西非、南部非洲和中非区域内部的差异尤为明显,其中西非内部差异贡献最大。3）经济社会环境因素整体上对非洲FDI影响有限,但局部对西非影响较大;经济发展水平对东非、南非的外资流入起着积极作用,而对西非起着抑制作用;对外开放度对西非起着消极影响;聚集效应对西非、中非、北非的作用有限。政治制度因素整体上对非洲外资具有显著的作用,但局部对北非和东非作用有限。资源禀赋因素总体上是外企对非洲区位选择的决定性因素,但局部对北非和东非影响不大。基础设施因素总体上对非洲大陆FDI的流入量影响不大,但对南部非洲地区除外。     

基于三维生态足迹模型优化的自然资本利用国际比较

维持自然资本存量恒定是人类社会可持续发展的基础。在介绍三维生态足迹模型的基础上,根据推导的区域足迹广度和区域足迹深度的计算公式,评估和比较2007年全球11个主要国家的自然资本利用状况,并分析模型优化前后的结果差异。结果表明:①全球自然资本流量的人均占用为1.71 hm²,人类需要1.55个地球才能支撑其资源消费量,化石能源碳排放是最主要的存量自然资本利用方式和生态超载驱动力;②各国的流量资本占用能力依次为加拿大>俄罗斯>美国>巴西>法国>德国>全球>意大利>中国>英国>日本>印度,存量资本消耗程度则基本呈逆向排列;③美、法、德等发达国家所利用的人均流量资本和存量资本均明显高于全球平均水平,应给予印、中等发展中国家一定的配额补偿;④模型优化后,全球人均足迹广度减少了0.09 hm²,足迹深度则增加了0.05,这更符合各国自然资本利用和生态赤字的实际;⑤中国面临增加国民收入和控制生态赤字的双重挑战,应将草地作为资本利用的优先方向,并适当控制城镇扩张速度。     

Natural capital accounting in Xi’an City of western China during 1995–2011

As one of the most important metropolitan areas in China, Xi＇an City plays a leading role in the development of the western regions. To impede the decision and policy prefer- ences for environmental and ecological factors, this paper took account of the natural capital depletion of Xi＇an City during 1995-2011, considered in terms of constant 1990 price levels. The results are as follows. （1） Natural capital depletion in Xi＇an City consistently increased from1995 to 2011, increasing from 14.31x108 yuan to 42.28x108 yuan, with an average an- nual growth rate of 12.22%. The primary component of natural capital depletion in Xi＇an City was the cost associated with fossil fuel resource depletion, while the cost associated with ecological services contributed the least to the total cost. （2） During 1995-2011, the proportion of natural capital depletion to Xi＇an City in Yanta and Lianhu districts dropped, whereas in counties such as Gaoling County, Chang＇an District and Lintong District, it increased. In 2011, the proportion of natural capital depletion varied between the different counties： Yanta District （15.75%）, Weiyang District and Lianhu District （10%-15%）, Huxian County, Xincheng District, Beiling District, Chang＇an District, Baqiao District, and Gaoling County （5%-10%）, and in Lintong District, Lantian County, Zhouzhi County and Yanliang District, it was 〈5%. （3） The spatial pattern of natural capital depletion varied with different perspectives, for example, from a total value perspective, a nuclear pattern around the administrative center of Xi＇an City was evident, whereas from a density per capita of natural capital depletion perspective, a bi-nuclear spatial distribution visible in 1995 had become a poly-nuclear distribution by 2011. Conversely, from a density per hectare perspective, a ＂core-edge＂ pattern characterized by three circles was observed. （4） The natural capital depletion relative to GDP curve was in accordance with the environmental Kuznets curve, while the proportion of natural capital de- pletion to GDP was the highest in circle III and the lowest in circle I.     

Spatial inequality of foreign direct investment in China: Institutional change,agglomeration economies,and market access

The spatial inequality of foreign direct investment (FDI) can intensify uneven economic development. As globalization and economic transition proceeds, foreign investors are changing their behaviors in FDI location, based on institutional change and agglomeration effects. In order to reduce the inequality, this research employs spatial statistics and analyses to examine the change in the spatial inequality of FDI among regions and among prefectural cities, and uses regression models and spatial regime analyses to investigate factors influencing the inequality from 1990 to 2010. The spatial diffusion of FDI clusters from the eastern/coastal region to the interior shows the trend of FDI convergence among regions. However, increasing numbers of FDI clusters and hot spots show the increasing divergence among cities within three regions. Agglomeration effects have replaced institutional factors to become one of the most significant factors influencing the FDI inequality among cities. Additionally, special economic zones, coastal open cities, provincial capital cities, and development zones lost their advantages in FDI as more reforms set in. The spatial regime analyses further indicate the significance of market size in FDI in prefecture-level cities and the significance of agglomeration economies in FDI in capitals and municipalities.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS, 1979-1983

Ordinary least-squares multiple regression is used to construct a path diagram showing the direct and indirect effects of corporate location factors on the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the 44 largest metropolitan areas in the United States during the period 1979-1983. The results show that the metropolitan areas with the most rapid population growth over the period 1970-1980 correspond to the centers with greater shares of FDI. The growth in Fortune measure, an indicator of the market dynamics of the metropolitan areas, has a direct effect on the level of investment. The growth of employment in manufacturing and in finance, insurance, and real estate, used as indexes of labor supply and of producer services, have indirect effects on FDI. The results show that foreign direct investors tend to concentrate in centers offering strong markets and strong bases of producer services, regardless of their regional locations.     

经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法

中国台湾“新南向政策”倍受社会关注。基于经贸视角及2001~2015年贸易数据,在分析经济依赖度及国际竞争力基础上,通过社会网络分析（SNA）方法探讨中国大陆在贸易网络中的地位及其对中国台湾的影响,利用VAR脉冲响应函数对比分析中国台湾与中国大陆、新南向国家的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的影响。研究结果表明：新南向国家对中国大陆的经济依赖度远高于其对中国台湾的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是中国台湾难以替代的;中国台湾对中国大陆的经济依赖度明显高于其对新南向国家的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是新南向国家难以替代的;中国大陆在贸易网络格局中处于核心地位,对于提升中国台湾贸易网络地位起着重要促进作用;中国大陆与中国台湾的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的正向效应明显高于新南向国家。中国台湾当局应秉承“九二共识”,抓住机遇,积极推进“新南向政策”与“一带一路”倡议融合,加强同中国大陆的经贸合作与交流,促进其经济稳定持续发展。     

Location Decisions and Network Configurations of Foreign Investment in Urban China∗

This article studies location decisions and network configurations of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu Province, located in the northwest of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Built on the perspective that China's economic transition can be conceptualized as a triple process of globalization, marketization, and decentralization, this article outlines four structural changes of the Chinese economy that are underlying the location and networks of FDI: decentralization and the empowerment of local states, marketization and the increasing importance of places, globalization and the emergence of globalizing city regions, and urban spatial restructuring. The study has uncovered substantial intraurban differences within Nanjing and the significance of the Chinese state, location within the YRD, and intraurban context in the location decisions for FDI. We have also found that foreign ventures overwhelmingly serve as production facilities for either the Chinese or world markets, and maintain close production relations with other foreign firms in the YRD. Finally, regression models have identified the significance of national-level development zones, access to ports, and industrial land in the location of foreign ventures.