东南亚地震活动与b 值的时空分布特征

东南亚地区是“21世纪海上丝绸之路”（以下简称“海洋丝路”）的重要组成部分,该区历史上曾发生十余次巨大地震,地震及其次生地质灾害是威胁东南亚地区经济社会发展和国际合作的主要自然灾害。系统梳理该区地震活动的时空分布特征及评估未来灾害风险格局,对于推进“一带一路”倡议实施及区域经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。文章基于东南亚地区1900年以来M≥5地震的时空分布统计分析和地震b值计算,揭示出该区的地震活动在时间上表现出活跃期与平静期交替变化的特征;空间上表现出明显的聚集效应,成丛性强且主要集中在5个地震统计区内,其中印尼—马来多岛弧盆系地震区和菲律宾群岛地震区的地震活动最为活跃。总体而言,东南亚5个地震区的b值偏低,在0.42~0.91之间。该区内的地震b值也存在时空差异,受大地震事件、俯冲带年龄、活动断裂带和震源深度等众多因素影响,但主控因素在不同区域有所不同。地震b值时空变化特征对区域地震活动预测具有启示作用。上述认识为推进“海洋丝路”工程建设和“一带一路”防灾减灾对策提供了科学支撑。     

Variation of singularity of earthquake-size distribution with respect to tectonic regime

Frequency-size relation of earthquakes in a region can be approximated by the Gutenberg-Richter law(GR). This power-law model involves two parameters: a-value measuring seismic activity or earthquake productivity, and b-value describing the relation between frequencies of small and large earthquakes.The spatial and temporal variations of these two parameters, especially the b-value, have been substantially investigated. For example, it has been shown that b-value depends inversely on differential stress. The b-value has also been utilized as earthquake precursor in large earthquake prediction.However, the physical meaning and properties of b-value including its value range still remain as an open fundamental question. We explore the property of b-value from frequency-size GR model in a new form which relates average energy release and probability of large earthquakes. Based on this new form of GR relation the b-value can be related to the singularity index(1-2/3 b) of fractal energy-probability power-law model. This model as applied to the global database of earthquakes with size M ≥ 5 from 1964 to 2015 indicates a systematic increase of singularity from earthquakes occurring on mid-ocean ridges, to those in subduction zones and in collision zones.     

辽宁海城及其邻区地震b值空间分布特征

震级-频度分布（FMD）是地震学研究中最重要的经验公式之一,相关系数b是构造学和地震危险性评估的重要因子,具有表征前震和余震的特性。辽宁省地震多发生在金州断裂附近,自1975年海城7.3级地震发生后,与金州断裂交汇的海城河—大洋河断裂开启活跃模式,其东南端岫岩附近在1999年又发生5.6级地震。近年来盖州附近地震活动也在增强。因此,本文利用b值空间分布特征对海城及其邻区的应力分布特点进行研究。震源定位准确与否直接影响b值计算,双差定位后的数据与常规目录相比具有更高的精度,但是完整性有一定下降。本文收集了中国地震台网1981—2005年的辽宁省地震目录,并进行双差定位,比较分析了常规目录数据和双差数据的b值分布差异,认为在地震密集区,双差定位后的数据可以被用来获得更准确的b值。对主要研究区进行网格划分,使用双差数据,得到b值的水平和垂直分布特征。结果表明：b值为0.6~1.8,随深度增加而降低;岫岩和盖州震区具有较低的b值,意味着具有较高的地震危险性;浑河震区与海城河—大洋河断裂东南方向具有较高的b值,说明该区域未来发生大地震的概率很低;与金州断裂交汇区域的b值在1.0附近,说明该地区应力暂时处于稳定状态,未来具有较低的地震危险性。     

Seismic moment release data in earthquake catalogue: Application of Hurst statistics in delineating temporal clustering and seismic vulnerability

Sequential cumulative moment release data of macroearthquakes (Mw≥4.3) of seventeen seismic zones (A to Q) belonging to NE-Himalaya, Burmese-Andaman arc and West- Sunda arc are analysed by Hurst analysis, a non-parametric statistical procedure to identify clustering of low and high values in a time series. The moment release in a zone occurs in alternate positive, negative and positive sloping segments forming a wave like pattern with intervening small horizontal segment. The negative sloping segments indicate decelerated moment release pattern or temporal slackening of elastic strain release with high b–value (>0.95). The horizontal segment indicates temporal clustering of moderate magnitude events/seismic moments with moderate b-values (0.8–0.95). The positive segment is characterised by accelerated moment release within a short span of time indicating temporal clustering of larger magnitude earthquakes/seismic moments and exhibit lowest b–value (<0.7). All zones attest moderate to high Hurst K values, range 0.7-0.86. The pattern in Hurst plots, specially a reversal of trend after prolong negative slope is used for earthquake prognostication in the seismic zones. Our analysis shows that most of the zones register a notable reversal of Hurst clustering trend after a prolonged negative slope which is accompanied by a major earthquake near its end. However, South Burma region (Zone-I) and Tripura fold belt and Bangladesh Plain (Zone-K) do not show any moderate or large shock around the end of the negative sloping trend in Hurst plot. Hence, these two zones can be considered more prone to produce moderate to larger earthquakes in future.     

3-D seismic structure of the Kachchh,Gujarat, and its implications for the earthquake hazard mitigation

Several pieces of studies on the January 26, 2001, Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.6) revealed that the mainshock was triggered on the hidden unmapped fault in the western part of Indian stable continental region that caused a huge loss in the entire Kachchh rift basin of Gujarat, India. Occurrences of infrequent earthquakes of Mw 7.6 due to existence of hidden and unmapped faults on the surface have become one of the key issues for geoscientific research, which need to be addressed for evolving plausible earthquake hazard mitigation model. In this study, we have carried out a detailed autopsy of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake source zone by applying three-dimensional (3-D) local earthquake tomography (LET) method to a completely new data set consisting of 576 local earthquakes recorded between November 2006 and April 2009 by a seismic network consisting of 22 numbers of three-component broadband digital seismograph stations. In the present study, a total of 7560 arrival times of P-wave (3820) and S-wave (3740) recorded at least 4 seismograph stations were inverted to assimilate 3-D P-wave velocity (Vp), S-wave velocity (Vs), and Poisson’s ratio (σ) structures beneath the 2001 Bhuj earthquake source zone for reliable interpretation of the imaged anomalies and its bearing on earthquake hazard of the region. The source zone is located near the triple junction formed by juxtapositions of three Indian, Arabian, and Iranian tectonic plates that might have facilitated the process of brittle failure at a depth of 25 km beneath the KRB, Gujarat, which caused a gigantic loss to both property and persons of the region. There may be several hidden seismogenic faults around the epicentral zone of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in the area, which are detectable using 3-D tomography to minimize earthquake hazard for a region. We infer that the use of detailed 3-D seismic tomography may offer potential information on hidden and unmapped faults beneath the plate interior to unravel the genesis of such big damaging earthquakes. This study may help in evolving a comprehensive earthquake risk mitigation model for regions of analogous geotectonic settings, elsewhere in the world.     

新疆于田及周边地区地震活动性与重力异常特征

基于最新重力场模型对2014年于田M_s7.3地震震区的重力异常特征进行分析, 并应用Crust1.0地壳模型计算得到震区的深部构造形态, 结果显示: 震中位于地壳厚度陡变带上.同2008年于田M_s7.3地震相比, 震中虽位于不同位置, 但发震机制均与深部地壳结构变化密切相关.统计研究区内历史地震活动性与重力异常之间的关系, 发现震中的自由空气异常与地形存在明显的线性相关性, 而布格异常和均衡异常的结果则明显不同.进一步地分别计算不同重力异常的水平总梯度和线性信号, 结果表明: 重力异常梯度量与地形的相关特性更明显.研究表明: M_s7.0以上大震活动与重力异常之间具有明显的统计特性学, 这可能与重力异常反映的深部结构和壳内质量分布的不均匀有关.      

Mapping of b-value Beneath the Shillong Plateau

The seismic parameter ‘b’ has been computed over rectangular grid of dimension 0.3° ' 0.8° at four depths range: 0-13 km (first layer), 13.1-26 km (second layer), 26.1-39 km (third layer) and 39.1-52 km (fourth layer) beneath the Shillong Plateau area. The four depths were carefully selected based on the crustal structure and distribution of hypocentres. The dimension of each grid was chosen so as to have enough events that can represent the b-value at the respective layer. Finally, two-dimensional mapping was done at these depth-levels considering the respective b-value over each grid. This analysis includes viz., low b-value all through the first layer, and a trend of increasing b-value, which was initially towards north, changes to northwest. Eastern and western parts of the second and third layers document almost moderate b-values, whereas the north-south-oriented central part of layer second is apparently dominated by low b-values, which seems to divide the area broadly into three parallel zones based on b-values. In the deeper part (fourth layer) beneath the Shillong Plateau a moderate b-value that was initially trending towards north becomes high near the northeastern part. This phenomenon may be associated with higher heterogeneity of the medium, and interestingly, this region lies between the lower crust and upper mantle, possibly documents lower degree of seismic coupling, where the Shillong Plateau is being supported by the strong Indian lithosphere at these depths. In addition, minima were noted towards the southern parts of layers first, second and third, which may presumably be related with steeply Bouguer gravity anomaly. It is thus less clear that the occurrence of earthquakes beneath the Shillong Plateau whether is attributed to faults or lineaments at intermediate to deeper level. However, a correlation between high b-values in few parts of each layer and deep-seated minor faults cannot be ruled out.     

Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years.     

太阳活动周与全球大震

为研究太阳活动与全球大震的关系, 引入一个无量纲的"地震能量函数√G", 并分析研究了1681—2011故年间全球M≥7.0大震的能量释放的时间序列.由此发现全球大震在太阳活动周4个阶段的分布和活动度, 随震级的强度而异.提出地壳对太阳风暴加卸载响应模式, 用于解释此现象: 通过考察最近331 a, 得出全球共发生了10个M≥9.0超级巨震的时空分布特征, 特别是太阳活动峰年期间没有发生过超级巨震.该研究结果可为判断全球大震提供参考.      

Crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonics of the region around Beijing, China

A detailed three-dimensional (3-D) P-wave velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle under the Chinese capital (Beijing) region is determined with a spatial resolution of 25 km in the horizontal direction and 4–17 km in depth. We used 48,750 precise P-wave arrival times from 2973 events of local crustal earthquakes, controlled seismic explosions and quarry blasts. These events were recorded by a new digital seismic network consisting of 101 seismic stations equipped with high-sensitivity seismometers. The data are analyzed by using a 3-D seismic tomography method. Our tomographic model provides new insights into the geological structure and tectonics of the region, such as the lithological variations and large fault zones across the major geological terranes like the North China Basin, the Taihangshan and the Yanshan mountainous areas. The velocity images of the upper crust reflect well the surface geological and topographic features. In the North China Basin, the depression and uplift areas are imaged as slow and fast velocities, respectively. The Taihangshan and Yanshan mountainous regions are generally imaged as broad high-velocity zones, while the Quaternary intermountain basins show up as small low-velocity anomalies. Velocity changes are visible across some of the large fault zones. Large crustal earthquakes, such as the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M=7.8) and the 1679 Sanhe earthquake (M=8.0), generally occurred in high-velocity areas in the upper to middle crust. In the lower crust to the uppermost mantle under the source zones of the large earthquakes, however, low-velocity and high-conductivity anomalies exist, which are considered to be associated with fluids. The fluids in the lower crust may cause the weakening of the seismogenic layer in the upper and middle crust and thus contribute to the initiation of the large crustal earthquakes.     

Role of crustal heterogeneity beneath Andaman–Nicobar Islands and its implications for coastal hazard

The Andaman–Nicobar (A–N) Islands region has attracted many geo-scientists because of its unique location and complex geotectonic settings. The recent occurrence of tsunamis due to the megathrust tsunamigenic north Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) with a series of aftershocks in the A–N region caused severe damage to the coastal regions of India and Indonesia. Several pieces of evidence suggest that the occurrence of earthquakes in the A–N region is related to its complex geodynamical processes. In this study, it has been inferred that deep-seated structural heterogeneities related to dehydration of the subducting Indian plate beneath the Island could have induced the process of brittle failure through crustal weakening to contribute immensely to the coastal hazard in the region. The present study based on 3-D P-wave tomography of the entire rupture zone of the A–N region using the aftershocks of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.3) clearly demonstrates the role of crustal heterogeneity in seismogenesis and in causing the strong shakings and tsunamis. The nature and extent of the imaged crustal heterogeneity beneath the A–N region may have facilitated the degree of damage and extent of coastal hazards in the region. The 3-D velocity heterogeneities reflect asperities that manifest what type of seismogenic layers exist beneath the region to dictate the size of earthquakes and thereby they help to assess the extent of earthquake vulnerability in the coastal regions. The inference of this study may be used as one of the potential inputs for assessment of seismic vulnerability to the region, which may be considered for evolving earthquake hazard mitigation model for the coastal areas of the Andaman–Nicobar Islands region.     

Space–time distribution of interplate moment release including slow earthquakes and the seismo-geodetic coupling in the Sanriku-oki region along the Japan trench

Along the Japan trench where some Mw8 class interplate earthquakes occurred in the past century such as the 1896 Sanriku tsunami earthquake (M6.8, Mt8.6, 12×10²⁰ N m) and the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mw8.2, 28×10²⁰ N m), the Pacific plate is subducting under northeast Japan at a rate of around 8 cm/year. The seismic coupling coefficient in this region has been estimated to be 20–40%. In the past decade, three ultra-slow earthquakes have occurred in the Sanriku-oki region (39°N–42°N): the 1989 Sanriku-oki (Mw7.4), the 1992 Sanriku-oki (Mw6.9), and the 1994 Sanriku-oki (Mw7.7) earthquakes. Integrating their interplate moments released both seismically and aseismically, we have the following conclusions. (1) The sum of the seismic moments of the three ultra-slow earthquakes was (4.8–6.6)×10²⁰ N m, which was 20–35% of the accumulated moment (18.6–23.0)×10²⁰ N m, in the region (39°N–40.6°N, 142°E–144°E) for the 21–26 years since the 1968 Mw8.2 Tokachi-oki earthquake. This is consistent with the previous estimates of the seismic coupling coefficient of 20–40%. On the other hand, the sum of the interplate moments including aseismic faulting is (11–16)×10²⁰ N m, leading to a “seismo-geodetic coupling coefficient” of 50–85%, which is an extension of the seismic coupling coefficient to include slow events. (2) The time constants showed a large range from 1 min (10² s) for the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake to 10–20 min (10³ s) for the 1896 Sanriku tsunami earthquake, to one day (10⁵ s) for the 1992 Sanriku-oki ultra-slow earthquake, to on the order of one year (10⁷ s) for the 1994 Sanriku-oki ultra-slow earthquakes. (3) Based on the space–time distribution, three “gaps of moment release,” (40.6°N–42°N, 142°E–144°E) 39°N–40°N, 142°E–143°E) and (39°N–40°N, 142°E–144°E), are identified, instead of the gaps of seismicity.     

Seismic Cycles and Trend Predictions of Earthquakes in Sumatra–Andaman and Burmese Subduction Zones using Temporal b-value and Hurst Analysis

The annual b-value fluctuation patterns in Burmese subduction zone and Andaman–Sumatra subduction zone are evaluated from earthquake data (January 1990 to June 2016; Mw ³ 4.3) to identify seismic cycles with sequential dynamic phases as described in the ‘elastic failure model’ of Main et al. (1989). Two seismic cycles have been identified in Andaman–Sumatra subduction zone, one started in 1990 and ended on 2004 with occurrence of great Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the other started in 2005 and continuing till date with the phase of crack coalescence and fluid diffusion (3A&B). Similarly, the subduction zone of Burma shows evidence of one incomplete seismic cycle within 1990–2016 and presently undergoing the crack coalescence and fluid diffusion (3A&B) phase. The analysis has prompted to subdivide the area into thirteen smaller seismic blocks (A to M) to analyse area specific seismic trend and vulnerability analysis employing Hurst Statistics. Hurst plots with the dynamic phases of ‘elastic failure model’ of earthquake generation is compared to assess the blocks with high seismic vulnerability. The analysis suggest that north Andaman zone (block G) and north Burma fold belt (block M) are seismically most vulnerable. Moreover, the seismic vulnerability of Tripura fold belt and Bangladesh plain (block K) is equally high.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.     

Crustal Seismicity In and Around Turkey

Vertical and horizontal variations of the frequency of crustal earthquakes (h ≤ 35 km) that have occurred in and around Turkey are analyzed, using data from the Global Hypocenter Data Base and the IRIS data for the period 1964–1998. Fits of various magnitude scales to the observations have been used to construct a homogeneous catalogue. Depth distribution of the parameters derived from the Gutenberg–Richter relationship reveals that there is a depth dependence in the a- and b-values of the frequency distribution. It is observed that unknown focal depths (0, 10, 33 km) are dominant in the total seismicity reported, and give rise to substantial changes to the vertical distribution of these parameters. It is also observed that the parameters of either a or b alone may not be used as a measure of regional seismicity of the study area in which high and low seismic activity observed over short distances. In contrast, distribution of modal (a/b) values provides detailed images of the local areas presented by high and low seismic zones. This study presents evidence that low b-values are associated with major strike-slip faults, particularly exhibiting high apparent stresses. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seismic structure of the Longmenshan area in SW China inferred from receiver function analysis: Implications for future large earthquakes

Following the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan and 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquakes, the Longmenshan thrust-fault belt and the Songpan–Ganzi terrane have been the focus of several investigations. Here we use the H–k stacking technique and neighborhood algorithm to investigate the seismic structure of this area. Based on the presence of felsic lower crust and the Mesozoic crustal architecture of the Songpan–Ganzi and Longmenshan area, we exclude the model on the eastward flow of the middle and lower crust assigned as the cause for the crustal thickening in previous studies. In contrast, the E–W trending cumulative compression induced by the continued northward motion of the Indian plate and India-Asian collision are identified as the dominant factors leading to the crustal thickening in the Longmenshan thrust-fault region as well as the Songpan–Ganzi terrane. Particularly, the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan and 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquakes likely indicate the cumulative offsets and the E–W continuing compression.     

Seismogenesis of the uninterrupted occurrence of the aftershock activity in the 2001 Bhuj earthquake zone, Gujarat, India, during 2001�C2010

Seismogenesis of aftershocks occurring in the Kachchh seismic zone for more than last 10?years is investigated through modeling of fractal dimensions, b-value, seismic velocities, stress inversion, and Coulomb failure stresses, using aftershock data of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Three-dimensional mapping of b-values, fractal dimensions, and seismic velocities clearly delineate an area of high b-, D-, and Vp/Vs ratio values at 15?C35?km depth below the main rupture zone (MRZ) of the 2001 mainshock, which is attributed to higher material heterogeneities in the vicinity of the MRZ or deep fluid enrichment due to the release of aqueous fluid/volatile CO₂ from the eclogitisation of the olivine-rich lower crustal rocks. We notice that several aftershocks are occurred near the contacts between high (mafic brittle rocks) and low velocity regions while many of the aftershocks including the 2001 Bhuj mainshock are occurred in the zones of low velocity (low dVp, low dVs and large Vp/Vs) in the 15?C35?km depth range, which are inferred to be the fractured rock matrixes filled with aqueous fluid or volatiles containing CO₂. Further support for this model comes from the presence of hydrous eclogitic layer at sub-lithospheric depths (34?C42?km). The depth-wise stress inversions using the P- and T-axes data of the focal mechanisms reveal an increase in heterogeneity (i.e., misfit) with an almost N?CS ??₁ orientation up to 30?km depth. Then, the misfit decreases to a minimum value in the 30?C40?km depth range, where a 60^o rotation in the ??₁ orientation is also noticed that can be explained in terms of the fluid enrichment in that particular layer. The modeling of Coulomb failure stress changes (??CFS) considering three tectonic faults [i.e., NWF, GF, and Allah bund fault (ABF)] and the slip distribution of the 2001 mainshock on NWF could successfully explain the occurrences of moderate size events (during 2006?C2008) in terms of increase in positive ??CFS on GF and ABF. In a nutshell, we propose that the fluid-filled mafic intrusives are acting as stress accentuators below the Kachchh seismic zone, which generate crustal earthquakes while the uninterrupted occurrence of aftershocks is triggered by stress transfer and aqueous fluid or volatile CO₂ flow mechanisms. Further, our results on the 3-D crustal seismic velocity structure, focal mechanisms, and b-value mapping will form key inputs for understanding wave propagation and earthquake hazard-related risk associated with the Kachchh basin.     

Crustal structure in Alaska

Knowledge of the crustal structure is still fragmentary, despite the stimulus to geophysical work provided by the earthquake of March 28, 1964 (GMT), the underground nuclear explosion LONGSHOT, and the June 1967 series of earthquakes in the Fairbanks area. The most reliable information about struc ture has come from a combination of seismic explosion-refraction profiles, gravity surveys, and magnetic surveys. This report is a summary of recent investigations, but the results are not adequate to permit unambiguous generalizations about crustal structure.     

全球大震活动特征

分析了全球、环太平洋地震带(P系)和低纬度环球剪切带(E系)的地震活动特征, 并运用小波变换技术对地震活动周期成分进行了定量研究, 结果表明: (1)全球地震活动存在45.5 a和32.0 a的显著周期成分, P系为45.5 a, E系为30.9 a和47.5 a; (2)全球及两大构造系7.0级以上地震频度均显示30.0 a左右的周期特征, 但地震频度与全球8.5级以上特大地震活动是不同步的, 不能作为判定地震活跃期与平静期的依据, 频度变化可能反映全球尺度的某种活动对地震产生的影响; (3)全球地震具有50.0 a尺度的活跃期与平静期; 当前全球地震活动处于2004年开始的以8.5级以上地震活动为特点的大释放阶段, 这种状态还将持续数年; E系处于M_w≥7.8大震活跃期的尾声, 而2010年智利M_w=8.8地震可能标志着P系开始进入大释放阶段.      

The large aftershocks triggered by the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake,Japan

The Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that occurred off the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011, was followed by thousands of aftershocks, both near the plate interface and in the crust of inland eastern Japan. In this paper, we report on two large, shallow crustal earthquakes that occurred near the Ibaraki-Fukushima prefecture border, where the background seismicity was low prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Using densely spaced geodetic observations (GPS and InSAR datasets), we found that two large aftershocks in the Iwaki and Kita-Ibarake regions (hereafter referred to as the Iwaki earthquake and the Kita-Ibarake earthquake) produced 2.1 m and 0.44 m of motion in the line-of-sight (LOS), respectively. The azimuth-offset method was used to obtain the preliminary location of the fault traces. The InSAR-based maximum offset and trace of the faults that produced the Iwaki earthquake are consistent with field observations. The fault location and geometry of these two earthquakes are constrained by a rectangular dislocation model in a multilayered elastic half-space, which indicates that the maximum slips for the two earthquakes are 3.28 m and 0.98 m, respectively. The Coulomb stress changes were calculated for the faults following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on the modeled slip along the fault planes. The resulting Coulomb stress changes indicate that the stresses on the faults increased by up to 1.1 MPa and 0.7 MPa in the Iwaki and Kita-Ibarake regions, respectively, suggesting that the Tohoku-Oki earthquake triggered the two aftershocks, supporting the results of seismic tomography.