ETAS Model Analysis on the Chang Island Earthquake Swarm in Shandong Province,China

Influenced by the layout of seismic network and the location of earthquakes, earthquake catalogs are often incomplete; such incompleteness of earthquake catalogue directly affects the analysis of sequence activity characteristics. In this paper, the GPU-acceleration-based g template matching method is used to scan the continuous waveforms of Chang Island earthquake swarm in Shandong Province from February 9 to August 20, 2017. In total, 15,286 earthquakes events were detected, which was more than 6 times compared with those in network catalogue and thus reduced the magnitude of completeness from 1.0 to 0.5. Based on the intergrated catalogue of earthquakes, the characteristics of Chang Island earthquake swarm were then analyzed using the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. The stochastic components in the ETAS model are used as a proxy for possible earthquake triggered by external forces (fluids). The results show that the proportion of earthquakes triggered by external forces of Chang Island swarm increases gradually (from 31.9% to 63.5%) and then decreases. The latter stage of swarm development is mainly affected by the self-excitation of earthquakes,suggesting that the fluids play an important role in the development of the Chang Island swarm. However, the triggering intensity of fluids to microseismicity is divergent in different periods, which may be related to the process of fluid permeation.     

Completeness Analysis of the Historical Earthquake Catalogue in China

The historical earthquake catalogue of China has lasted more than 3000 years,and most of its data are inferred from historical records.The earthquake catalogue in earlier times is not complete owing to various reasons,so some events are lost.This paper estimates the loss rate of earthquakes with various magnitudes in the historical earthquake catalogue for different time intervals quantitatively by using the Gutenberg-Richter formula and modern instrumental records,which will provide the references for statistic research in seismicity.     

Application of Information Gain to Estimating the Seismic Tendency

Considering two seismic parameters,energy and the frequency of an earthquake as a whole from the definition of information gain in entropy,we study the information gain of M≥6.0 earthquakes from the world earthquake catalogue during 1900-1992.The results show that the information gain decreases before strong earthquakes.Our study of the recent seismic tendency of large earthquakes shows that the probability of earthquakes with M≥8.5 is low for the near future around the world.The information gain technique provides a new approach to tracing and predicting earthquakes from the data of moderate and small earthquakes.     

Scaling of Reduced Energy or Apparent Stress and Its Seismological Significance

Comparison between the NEIC broadband radiated energy catalogue and the Harvard CMT catalogue provides information about apparent stres.In spite of its significant uncertainties and limited relability, the clues obtained from this comparison seem interestiin in the physics of earthquakes.Scaling of apparent stress provides information about the dynamic friction along an earthquake fault.Relation between reduced energy and seismic moment implies that for strike-slip earthquakes,velocity-dependent friction plays a predominant role,while for non-strike-slip earthquakes,slip-dependent friction is predominant.It is also found that strike-slip events with extremely low apparent stress tend to occur“in single”,which is applied to the prediction of the seismic tendency following the 2001 Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet) borderMW7.8 earthquake.     

Connection between earthquakes and deep fluids revealed by magnetotelluric imaging in Songyuan,China

Songyuan is the most earthquake prone area in northeast China.Since 2006,earthquakes have occurred in the area in the form of swarms,with a maximum magnitude of M_L5.8.There is much controversy about the cause of the Songyuan earthquakes.We attempted to determine the cause using a three-dimensional electrical conductivity structure inverted from a regional network of magnetotelluric data in the Songyuan area.The L-BFGS inversion method was applied,with a fullimpedance tensor data set used as the inversion input.Combined with an evaluation of the earthquake locations,the resistivity model revealed a northeast-oriented hidden fault running through the Songyuan earthquake area(SEA),which was speculated to be the preexisting Fuyu-Zhaodong Fault(FZF).Our resistivity model also found an apparent lithospheric low-resistivity anomaly beneath the earthquake area,which breached the high-resistivity lithospheric mantle and stalled at the base of the crust.A petrophysical analysis showed that this lower crustal low-resistivity anomaly was most likely attributed to hydrated partial melting,which could release water into the lower crust during later magma emplacements.While weakening the strength of the FZF,these ascending fluids also increased the pore pressure in the fault,further reducing the shear strength of the fault.Shear stress action(a fault strike component of the east-west regional compress),together with possible near-surface disturbances,may drive the fault to slip and trigger the earthquakes in Songyuan.It is possible that the continuous replenishment of fluids from the deeper mantle forces the Songyuan earthquakes into the form of swarms.We infer that the Songyuan earthquakes could be attributed to a combination of preexisting faults,regional stress,and deep fluids associated with plate subduction,and near surface disturbances might induce the earthquakes in advance.The Songyuan earthquakes are inherently induced earthquakes,fed by deep fluids.     

Deformation Model Inferred from Focal Mechanisms in the Chinese Mainland and Its Adjacent Areas

We collect seismic moment tensors of the earthquakes occurring from 1900 to 2013 in and around the Chinese mainland and summarize the surface ruptures and displacements of 70 earthquakes with M S≥7. 0. We divide these large earthquakes into three types. Type A contains earthquakes with surface ruptures and displacements. Type B is earthquakes without displacements and Type C is those without any of this data. We simulate a triangular distribution of displacements for Type B and C. Then,we segment these large earthquakes by using their displacements and surface ruptures. Finally,kinematic models are determined from earthquake data and Bicubic Bessel spline functions. The results show that,first of all,the reasonability and spatial consistency of defined models are advanced.Strain rates have better continuity and are comparable with geologic and geodetic results in Himalaya thrust fault zones. The strain rates decrease in the Tarim basin and the Altun Tagh fault zones because of their low seismicity. The direction of compressional deformation in Gobi-Altay is changed from SE to NE and its extensional direction is changed from NE to NW. The extensional deformation in the Ordos block is diminished obviously. Secondly,earthquakes account for 30- 50% of expected motion of India relative to Eurasia determined from the NUVEL-1A model,with a missing component of 20 mm / a which may contain aseismic deformation such as fault creep and folds,the missing parts of earthquake data and elastic strain energy released by potential earthquakes.     

Tectonic Stress Wave,Microfracture Wave,and a Modified Elastic-Rebound Model of Earthquakes

Based on a sample of some real earthquakes,we have suggested in previous papers that there is a density-tectonic stress wave with ultra-low frequency which is emitted from the epicenter region for months before earthquakes,and a micro-fracture wave 1 ～ 10 days before earthquakes. The former has been observed by different kinds of measurements and the latter has been observed by a few chance observations which consists of electromagnetic,gravitational and sonic fluctuations. We show real observational results that depict the two waves and they have very different frequencies,which are not difficult to discriminate. The classical elastic-rebound model is one of the most influential theories on earthquakes,and the thermodynamic elastic-rebound model has amended the classical framework. Considering the two waves above,we attempt to further modify the elasticrebound model,and the new framework could be called the "micro-fracture elasticrebound model". We infer that tectonic earthquakes could have three special phases: the accumulation of tectonic stress,micro-fracture,and main-fracture. Accordingly,there would be three waves which come from the epicenter of a tectonic earthquake,i. e. ,the tectonic stress wave with ultra-low frequency a few months before the earthquake,the micro-fracture wave about 1 ～ 10 days before the earthquake and the main-fracture wave (common earthquake wave).     

Study of Nonlinear Earthquake Flow Functions and Their Application to the Space Increased Probability of Strong Earthquake (SIP)

The definition and abnormality discriminatory criteria of earthquake flow function are introduced in this paper based on the algorithm of Space Increased Probability (SIP). Nine earthquake flow functions were defined by the method. The retrospect test that applied the SIP algorithm with the nonlinear earthquake flow function to 7 earthquakes, which occurred from 1975 to 1989 in Eastern China, with a magnitude of 6 or greater depicted that 6 of the 7 strong earthquakes (86%) were located in the SIP areas, and the SIP covers about 32% of the total research time-space domain. These suggest that the R-value, an effective scale for earthquake forecast, is 54% and may imply that the nonlinear earthquake flow function introduced in this paper can be applied to the intermediate-term earthquake forecast research.     

Seismicity gap and seismic quiescence before 1999 Jiji(Chi-Chi) M_W7.6 earthquake

The September 21,1999,Jiji(Chi-Chi) MW7.6 earthquake is the strongest event occurred since 1900 in Taiwan of China.It is located in the middle segment of the western seismic zone of Taiwan.Based on several versions of China earthquake catalogue this study found that a seismic gap of M≥5 earthquakes appeared,in and around the epicenter region,24 years before and lasted up to the mainshock occurrence.This study also noticed that there existed a lager seismically quiet region of M≥4 earthquakes,which lasted for about 2.5 years before the mainshock occurrence.The spatial variation pattern of regional seismicity before the mainshock seems to match with its coseismic source rupture process.The mentioned seismicity gap and seismic quiescence might be an indication of the preparation process of the Jiji strong earthquake.     

The Strong Earthquake Swarm in Jiashi, Xinjiang in 1997 and Three Successful Predictions of Impending Earthquakes

A strong earthquake swarm including 7 earthquakes with M≥6.0 occurred in Jiashi, Xinjiang region from January to April, 1997, which is rare for intraplate seismicity. They occurred in Tarim Basin which is relatively stable, has no discovered surface rupture and where the deep-seated tectonics are not clear. The Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Region has made three successful impending predictions for the strong aftershocks and succeeding earthquakes in Jiashi. The injuries and deaths of people have been greatly reduced because of effective measures taken by the local government, and the social and economic results are remarkable. The article introduces a summary of the strong earthquake swarm and the main processes of the prediction, sums up the scientific bases of an impending prediction, and shows that the occurrence of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm revealed some important scientific problems which should be studied further. The practice of the Jiashi earthquake prediction indicates again that     

Preliminary study on aftershock decay rate of the 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake

We obtained a catalog of early aftershocks of the 2013 Lushan earthquake by examining waveform from a nearby station MDS which is 30.2 km far away from the epicenter, and then we analyzed the relation between aftershock rate and time. We used time-window ratio method to identify aftershocks from continuous waveform data and compare the result with the catalog provided by China Earthquake Networks Center （CENC）. As expected, a significant amount of earthquakes is missing in CENC catalog in the 24 h after the main shock. Moreover, we observed a steady seismicity rate of aftershocks nearly in the first 10,000 s before an obvious power-law decay of aftershock activity. We consider this distinct early stage which does not fit the Omori law with a constant p （p - 1） value as early aftershock deficiency （EAD）, as proposed by previous studies. Our study suggests that the main shock rupture process is different from aftershocks＇ processes, and EAD can vary in different cases as compared to earthquakes of strike-slip mechanism in California.     

A Preliminary Study on the Use of NCEP Temperature Images and Additive Tectonic Stress from Astro- Tidal- Triggering to Forecast Short-Impending Earthquakes

Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Tibet, China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction of America(NCEP)with the additive tectonic stress from astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) and makes the following conclusions: The abnormal temperature image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-temporal evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The ATSA has an evident triggering effect on the activity of a fault when the terra stress is in critical status; using the NCEP images and the ATSA to forecast short-impending earthquake is a new concept; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective ATSA cycle, i.e. that occurred at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of a peak, rather than at the time when the variation rate was maximal. In addition, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003～2004 in Tibet was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.     

Deep electrical anomaly in the M7.5 Qiongzhou earthquake region and its relation with future seismicity

From the magnetotelluric detection in the epicentral region and the adjacent areas of the 1605 M7.5 Qiongzhou earthquake, we have discovered there is a low resistive body in the deep crust of the epicentral region. The low resistive body extends straightly from the depth of about 13 km to the upper mantle, which is supposed as an up-rising mantle pole. We therefore consider it is just the existing mantle pole and its upwelling thermal material that result in the faulting and stick-slipping activities of the upper crust, which is an important factor for the M7.5 Qiongzhou great earthquake occurrence. The postseismic faulting activity is characterized by creep, which shows that the risk is greatly decreased for the occurrence of a great earthquake with similar intensity in the future.     

Retrospection on the Conclusions of Earthquake Tendency Forecast before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake

The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass M_S8.1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a M_S8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of M_S7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of M_S5.0 and M_S6.0 earthquakes during 2002～2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning’er M_S6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years.     

Research on the Application of Time Structure Variation Analysis to the Jiashi-Bachu Earthquake Swarm Sequence

In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Onl     

Relocation of the Ms≥2.0 Earthquakes in the Northern Tianshan Region, Xinjiang, Using the Double-Difference Earthquake Relocation Algorithm

We applied the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm to 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 that occurred in the northern Tianshan region, Xinjiang, from April 1988 to June 2003, using a total of 28701 P- and S-wave arrival times recorded by 32 seismic stations in Xinjiang. Aiming to obtain most of these M_S≥2.0 earthquakes relocations, and considering the requirements of the DD method and the condition of data, we added the travel time data of another 437 earthquakes with 1.5≤M_S<2.0. Finally, we obtained the relocation results for 1253 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0, which account for 93% of all the 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 and includes all the M_S≥3.0 earthquakes. The reason for not relocating the 95 earthquakes with 2.0≤M_S<3.0 is analyzed in the paper. After relocation, the RMS residual decreased from 0.83s to 0.14s, the average error is 0.993 km in E-W direction, 1.10 km in N-S direction, and 1.33 km in vertical direction. The hypocenter depths are more convergent than before and distributed from 5 km to 35 km, with 94% being from 5km to 35 km, 68.2% from 10 km to 25 km. The average hypocenter depth is 19 km.     

Long aseismic slip duration of the 2006 Java tsunami earthquake based on GPS data

The Java earthquake occurred on July 17,2006 with magnitude 7.8 associated to the subduction process of Indo-Australian plate and Sundaland block off southwestern coast of Java. We present postseismic deformation parameters of the 2006 Java earthquake analyzed using campaign GPS observation from 2006 to 2008 and continuous observation from 2007 to 2014. We use an analytical approach of logarithmic and exponential functions to model these GPS data. We find that the decay time in the order of hundreds of days after the mainshock as observed by 8 years' data after the mainshock for magnitude 7 earthquake is longer than a general megathrust earthquake event. Our findings suggest that the 2006 Java earthquake which is considered as ‘‘tsunami earthquake' most probably occurred in the region that has low rigidity and tends to continuously slip for long time periods.     

Scaling of stress drop and high-frequency fall-off of source spectra

It has been observed for a long time that the high-frequency fall-off constant of source spectra is about 2 for "large" earthquakes and about 3 for "small" earthquakes. For earthquakes between "large" and "small", the highfrequency fall-off constant is not an integer and varies with the size of the earthquake. In this article such a variation is explained in the perspective of the scaling of stress drop, which proposes a new approach to the study of the scaling of stress drop using seismic data with lower quality of completeness and high-frequency characteristics. The study on the source spectra of the aftershocks of the 1988 Lancang-Gengma, Yunnan, China earthquake shows that the high-frequency fall-off of source spectra and its variation with the size of earthquake can be well explained by the model that for "large" earthquakes the stress drop is a constant while for "small" earthquakes the stress drop increases with the size of the earthquake.     

Estimating the size of an earthquake using short-period seismograms of the first three seconds: A simulated experiment using the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence

Most of the present earthquake early warning systems are based on broadband or strong motion recordings. How-ever, the short-period instruments are still deployed. It is well-known that short-period recordings have saturation problems for large earthquakes when estimating the size of an earthquake. Thus, it is necessary to make clear the magnitude at which saturation starts to occur for the commonly used τc and Pd measurements, respectively. To investigate the possibility of using short-period seismic recordings for earthquake early warning, we conducted a simulated experiment using the strong motion data of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence including its main shock and 31 aftershocks, with magnitude span from 4 to 7.6. The strong motion acceleration recordings were convolved with the instrument response of short-period seismographs in northern China to simulate short-period seismograms. Parameters τc and Pd from the first-three-second seismograms were calculated for the simulated short-period recordings and compared with that obtained by the original strong ground motion recordings. The result showed that to some extent, short-period recordings can be used for threshold earthquake early warning, while the magnitude saturation of Pd estimation can be up to 6.5, better than τc estimation.     

Analysis of Paleoseismic Events of Dahuzhuang Trench at the Xiadian Fault

The Xiadian Fault is a very important concealed active fault in the Beijing Plain. It is the seismogenic fault of the Sanhe-Pinggu M_S8.0 earthquake in 1679. The ancient earthquake sequence in the long historical period is of great significance to understand accurately the activity characteristics of the fault and effectively reduce the earthquake disaster risk in Beijing. We have re-interpreted the Dahuzhuang trench, and identified three layers of buried paleosol, six collapsed wedges and one sand liquefaction event. Further, through the comparison with the landmark strata and paleo-earthquake events revealed by other trenches on the fault, an ancient earthquake sequence with a long historical period of the Xiadian Fault was established:since the 31ka, the Xiadian Fault has 11 occurrences of earthquake events (including the 1679 earthquake), and the average recurrence interval is about 2.8ka. The paleo-seismic sequence also shows that there is an ancient earthquake cluster period from 25ka to 15ka, and there are 5 strong earthquakes in the cluster period. The average recurrence interval is about 2.0ka, which reflects the phase difference of the Xiadian Fault activity.