The influence of palaeoenvironment and lava flux on the emplacement of submarine, near-shore Late Permian basalt lavas, Sydney Basin (Australia)

Lava flux and a low palaeoslope were the critical factors in determining the development of different facies in the Late Permian Blow Hole flow, which comprises a series of shoshonitic basalt lavas and associated volcaniclastic detritus in the southern Sydney Basin of eastern Australia. The unit consists of a lower lobe and sheet facies, a middle tube and breccia facies, and an upper columnar-jointed facies. Close similarities in petrography and geochemistry between the basalt lavas from the three facies suggest similar viscosities at similar temperatures. Sedimentological and palaeontological evidence from the sedimentary units immediately below the Blow Hole flow suggests that the lower part of the volcanic unit was emplaced in a cold water, shallow submarine environment, but at least the top of the uppermost lava was subaerial with some palaeosol development. The lower lobe and sheet facies was emplaced on a low slope (<2°) in a lower to middle shoreface environment with water depths of 20–25 m. Lava may have transgressed from subaerial to subaqueous and was emplaced relatively passively with lava flux sufficiently high and uniform to form lobes and sheets rather than pillows. The middle unit probably originated from a subaerial vent and flowed into a shallow (10–15 m) submarine environment, and wave action probably interacted with the advancing lava front to form a lava delta. Lava flux was sufficiently high to produce well-developed, subcircular lava tubes, which lack evidence for thermal erosion. In some areas, lava ‘burrowed’ into the unconsolidated, water-saturated lava delta and sand pile to produce intrusive contacts. The upper columnar-jointed unit represents a ponded facies probably emplaced initially in water depths <5 m but whose top was subaerial.     

Time series analysis for evaluating hydrological responses of pore-water pressure to rainfall in a slope

Characterization of pore-water pressure at the soil–atmosphere interface is a major requirement in relation to slope instability. A rain-gauge and five piezometers (BH1–BH5) were installed on a slope located in a Korean military base. The upper slope (BH4, BH5) was covered with plastic sheets to prevent rainwater from percolating into the slope due to safety issues. Rainfall is matched by prompt changes in the pore-water pressure except at BH5. Due to the plastic cover, the pore water does not show any significant change in the early period by evapotranspiration. From correlation analysis, two wells (BH3, BH5) have longer memory effects due to matrix flow of past precipitation. Two principal components show hydrological responses of pore water to rainfall during intense rainfall, but PC2 does not indicate any important changes in low or no rainfall. This study suggests that correlation analysis with PCA can be a valuable tool for interpreting datasets consisting only of pore-water pressure.     

Earthen barriers to control lava flows in the 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna

Preceded by four days of intense seismicity and marked ground deformation, a new eruption of Mt. Etna started on 17 July and lasted until 9 August 2001. It produced lava emission and strombolian and phreatomagmatic activity from four different main vents located on a complex fracture system extending from the southeast summit cone for about 4.5 km southwards, from 3000 to 2100 m elevation (a.s.l.). The lava emitted from the lowest vent cut up an important road on the volcano and destroyed other rural roads and a few isolated country houses. Its front descended southwards to about 4 km distance from the villages of Nicolosi and Belpasso. A plan of intervention, including diversion and retaining barriers and possibly lava flow interruption, was prepared but not activated because the flow front stopped as a consequence of a decrease in the effusion rate. Extensive interventions were carried out in order to protect some important tourist facilities of the Sapienza and Mts. Silvestri zones (1900 m elevation) from being destroyed by the lava emitted from vents located at 2700 m and 2550 m elevation. Thirteen earthen barriers (with a maximum length of 370 m, height of 10–12 m, base width of 15 m and volume of 25 000 m³) were built to divert the lava flow away from the facilities towards a path implying considerably less damage. Most of the barriers were oriented diagonally (110–135°) to the direction of the flow. They were made of loose material excavated nearby and worked very nicely, resisting the thrust of the lava without any difficulty. After the interventions carried out on Mt. Etna in 1983 and in 1991–1992, those of 2001 confirm that earthen barriers can be very effective in controlling lava flows.     

Silicic lava dome growth in the 1934–1935 Showa Iwo-jima eruption, Kikai caldera, south of Kyushu, Japan

The 1934–1935 Showa Iwo-jima eruption started with a silicic lava extrusion onto the floor of the submarine Kikai caldera and ceased with the emergence of a lava dome. The central part of the emergent dome consists of lower microcrystalline rhyolite, grading upward into finely vesicular lava, overlain by coarsely vesicular lava with pumice breccia at the top. The lava surface is folded, and folds become tighter toward the marginal part of the dome. The dome margin is characterized by two zones: a fracture zone and a breccia zone. The fracture zone is composed of alternating layers of massive lava and welded oxidized breccia. The breccia zone is the outermost part of the dome, and consists of glassy breccia interpreted to be hyaloclastite. The lava dome contains lava with two slightly different chemical compositions; the marginal part being more dacitic and the central part more rhyolitic. The fold geometry and chemical compositions indicate that the marginal dacite had a slightly higher temperature, lower viscosity, and lower yield stress than the central rhyolite. The high-temperature dacite lava began to effuse in the earlier stage from the central crater. The front of the dome came in contact with seawater and formed hyaloclastite. During the later stage, low-temperature rhyolite lava effused subaerially. As lava was injected into the growing dome, the fracture zone was produced by successive fracturing, ramping, and brecciation of the moving dome front. In the marginal part, hyaloclastite was ramped above the sea surface by progressive increments of the new lava. The central part was folded, forming pumice breccia and wrinkles. Subaerial emplacement of lava was the dominant process during the growth of the Showa Iwo-jima dome.Editorial Responsibility J. McPhie     

Sequence and eruptive style of the 1783 eruption of Asama Volcano, central Japan: a case study of an andesitic explosive eruption generating fountain-fed lava flow, pumice fall, scoria flow and forming a cone

The 3-month long eruption of Asama volcano in 1783 produced andesitic pumice falls, pyroclastic flows, lava flows, and constructed a cone. It is divided into six episodes on the basis of waxing and waning inferred from records made during the eruption. Episodes 1 to 4 were intermittent Vulcanian or Plinian eruptions, which generated several pumice fall deposits. The frequency and intensity of the eruption increased dramatically in episode 5, which started on 2 August, and culminated in a final phase that began on the night of 4 August, lasting for 15 h. This climactic phase is further divided into two subphases. The first subphase is characterized by generation of a pumice fall, whereas the second one is characterized by abundant pyroclastic flows. Stratigraphic relationships suggest that rapid growth of a cone and the generation of lava flows occurred simultaneously with the generation of both pumice falls and pyroclastic flows. The volumes of the ejecta during the first and second subphases are 0.21 km³ (DRE) and 0.27 km³ (DRE), respectively. The proportions of the different eruptive products are lava: cone: pumice fall=84:11:5 in the first subphase and lava: cone: pyroclastic flow=42:2:56 in the second subphase. The lava flows in this eruption consist of three flow units (L1, L2, and L3) and they characteristically possess abundant broken phenocrysts, and show extensive "welding" texture. These features, as well as ghost pyroclastic textures on the surface, indicate that the lava was a fountain-fed clastogenic lava. A high discharge rate for the lava flow (up to 10⁶ kg/s) may also suggest that the lava was initially explosively ejected from the conduit. The petrology of the juvenile materials indicates binary mixing of an andesitic magma and a crystal-rich dacitic magma. The mixing ratio changed with time; the dacitic component is dominant in the pyroclasts of the first subphase of the climactic phase, while the proportion of the andesitic component increases in the pyroclasts of the second subphase. The compositions of the lava flows vary from one flow unit to another; L1 and L3 have almost identical compositions to those of pyroclasts of the first and second subphases, respectively, while L2 has an intermediate composition, suggesting that the pyroclasts of the first and second subphases were the source of the lava flows, and were partly homogenized during flow. The complex features of this eruption can be explained by rapid deposition of coarse pyroclasts near the vent and the subsequent flowage of clastogenic lavas which were accompanied by a high eruption plume generating pumice falls and/or pyroclastic flows.Editorial responsibility: T. Druitt     

The internal structure of lava flows—insights from AMS measurements II: Hawaiian pahoehoe, toothpaste lava and 'a'

We studied the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of 22 basaltic flow units, including S-type pahoehoe, P-type pahoehoe, toothpaste lava and 'a' emplaced over different slopes in two Hawaiian islands. Systematic differences occur in several aspects of AMS (mean susceptibility, degree of anisotropy, magnetic fabric and orientation of the principal susceptibilities) among the morphological types that can be related to different modes of lava emplacement. AMS also detects systematic changes in the rate of shear with position in a unit, allowing us to infer local flow direction and some other aspects of the velocity field of each unit. 'A' flows are subject to stronger deformation than pahoehoe, and also their internal parts behave more like a unit. According to AMS, the central part of pahoehoe commonly reveals a different deformation history than the upper and lower extremes, probably resulting from endogenous growth.     

小波分析在GPS位移时间序列特征中的应用

使用福建GPS台网2004年3月—2008年10月的连续观测资料,对各基准地震站原始数据进行处理,得到位移时间序列,进行初步分析。在此基础上,采用小波分析方法提取时间序列的时频特征,从而得到非线性变化信息,为GPS在大地震前获取前兆资料提供探索方向,进而通过对位移时间序列异常变化与区域地壳运动关系的研究,探讨两者间的内在联系。     

Time series and stochastic analyses to study the hydrodynamic characteristics of karstic aquifers

The regional study of hydrodynamic characteristics of karstic aquifers is challenging because of the great variety of lithology and the structural complexity found in carbonate formations. In order to improve this situation, a combined approach of time series and stochastic analyses was adopted to assess the hydrodynamic behaviour of the karstic aquifers. To achieve this, daily flow rates of 20 springs were taken from the 11 most significant aquifer units of the Basque Country. The results demonstrate the presence of memory effects, which modulated the input rainfall for short‐, medium‐ and long‐term storage capacity, resulting in hydrodynamic properties such as system memory, response time and mean delay between input and output. They reflect the storage and the manner in which these are filled and emptied, thus indicating the karstification of the aquifer. Likewise, the hydrodynamic and hydraulic classification obtained from the stochastic analysis provides a complementary approach to characterize the hydraulic behaviour of the studied karstic aquifers. The discussed examples indicate that this approach provides an excellent method to research hydrological karst systems. It is also shown that the use of hydrologic time series, alone, does not lead to a satisfactory classification of the hydrodynamic characteristics. Therefore, the general approach to hydrological regionalization in karst areas should take into account the structural complexity, heterogeneity of the lithology and the degree of karstification. Only in this case will the regionalization be physically founded, leading to a regional understanding of the hydrodynamic characteristics and flow conditions in a karst aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Instability of exogenous lava lobes during intense rainfall

On many volcanoes, there is evidence of a relationship between dome collapse and periods of high precipitation. We propose a mechanism for this relationship and investigate the conditions that optimize failure by this process. Observations of elongate lobes that evolve through exogenous growth of lava domes reveal that they commonly develop tensile fractures perpendicular to the direction of motion. These cracks can increase in depth by localized cooling and volumetric contraction. During periods of high rainfall, water can fill these cracks, and the increase in fluid pressure on the base of the lobes and within the crack can trigger the collapse of the hot exogenous lava domes. Using limit-equilibrium analysis, it is possible to calculate the water and vapor forces acting on the rear and base of the potentially unstable part of the lobe. The model presented is rectangular in cross-section, with material properties representative of andesitic dome rocks. Vapor pressures at the base of cracks are sealed by the penetrating rainfall, which forms a saturated cap within the lobe. This leads to an increase in fluid pressurization both through the underlying gas pressure and the downslope component of the liquid water cap. Fluid pressurization increases as the penetration depth increases. This rainfall penetration depth is dependent on the thermal properties of the rocks, antecedent temperature, lobe geometry, and the intensity and duration of precipitation. Dominant parameters influencing the stability of the lobe are principally lobe thickness, duration and intensity of rainfall, and antecedent lobe temperature. Our modeling reveals that thicker lobes are intrinsically more unstable due to the amplification of downslope forces in comparison to cohesive strength. The increase in the duration and intensity of rainfall events also increases the potential for collapse, as it leads to deeper liquid penetration. Deeper penetration depths are also achieved through lower antecedent temperatures since less fluid is lost through vaporization. Thus, the potential for rain-triggered collapse increases with time from emplacement.Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell     

Factors controlling the lengths of channel-fed lava flows

Factors which control lava flow length are still not fully understood. The assumption that flow length as mainly influenced by viscosity was contested by Walker (1973) who proposed that the length of a lava flow was dependent on the mean effusion rate, and by Malin (1980) who concluded that flow length was dependent on erupted volume. Our reanalysis of Malin's data shows that, if short duration and tube-fed flows are eliminated, Malin's Hawaiian flow data are consistent with Walker's assertion. However, the length of a flow can vary, for a given effusion rate, by a factor of 7, and by up to 10 for a given volume. Factors other than effusion rate and volume are therefore clearly important in controlling the lengths of lava flows. We establish the relative importance of the other factors by performing a multivariate analysis of data for recent Hawaiian lava flows. In addition to generating empirical equations relating flow length to other variables, we have developed a non-isothermal Bingham flow model. This computes the channel and levee width of a flow and hence permits the advance rates of flows and their maximum cooling-limited lengths for different gradients and effusion rates to be calculated. Changing rheological properties are taken into account using the ratio of yield strength to viscosity; available field measurements show that this varies systematically from the vent to the front of a lava flow. The model gives reasonable agreement with data from the 1983–1986 Pu'u Oo eruptions and the 1984 eruption of Mauna Loa. The method has also been applied to andesitic and rhyolitic lava flows. It predicts that, while the more silicic lava flows advance at generally slower rates than basaltic flows, their maximum flow lengths, for a given effusion rate, will be greater than for basaltic lava flows.     

Development of lava tubes in the light of observations at Mauna Ulu,Kilauea Volcano,Hawaii

During the 1969–1974 Mauna Ulu eruption on Kilauea's upper east rift zone, lava tubes were observed to develop by four principal processes: (1) flat, rooted crusts grew across streams within confined channels; (2) overflows and spatter accreted to levees to build arched roofs across streams; (3) plates of solidified crust floating downstream coalesced to form a roof; and (4) pahoehoe lobes progressively extended, fed by networks of distributaries beneath a solidified crust. Still another tube-forming process operated when pahoehoe entered the ocean; large waves would abruptly chill a crust across the entire surface of a molten stream crossing through the surf zone. These littoral lava tubes formed abruptly, in contrast to subaerial tubes, which formed gradually. All tube-forming processes were favored by low to moderate volume-rates of flow for sustained periods of time. Tubes thereby became ubiquitous within the pahoehoe flows and distributed a very large proportionof the lava that was produced during this prolonged eruption. Tubes transport lava efficiently. Once formed, the roofs of tubes insulate the active streams within, allowing the lava to retain its fluidity for a longer time than if exposed directly to ambient air temperature. Thus the flows can travel greater distances and spread over wider areas. Even though supply rates during most of 1970–1974 were moderate, ranging from 1 to 5 m³/s, large tube systems conducted lava as far as the coast, 12–13 km distant, where they fed extensive pahoehoe fields on the coastal flats. Some flows entered the sea to build lava deltas and add new land to the island. The largest and most efficient tubes developed during periods of sustained extrusion, when new lava was being supplied at nearly constant rates. Tubes can play a major role in building volcanic edifices with gentle slopes because they can deliver a substantial fraction of lava erupted at low to moderate rates to sites far down the flank of a volcano. We conclude, therefore, that the tendency of active pahoehoe flows to form lava tubes is a significant factor in producing the common shield morphology of basaltic volcanoes.     

Complexity analysis of riverflow time series

I have used the Lempel–Ziv measure to assess the complexity in riverflow activity over England and Wales for the period 1867–2002. In particular, I have examined the reconstructed monthly riverflow time series from fifteen representative catchments in these regions and calculated the Lempel–Ziv Complexity (LZC) value for each time series. The results indicate that the LZC values in some catchments are close to each other while in others they differ significantly. In addition, I have divided the period 1867–2002 into four equal subintervals: (a) 1867–1900, (b) 1901–1934, (c) 1935–1968, (d) 1969–2002, and calculated the LZC values for the various time series in these subintervals. It is found that during the period 1969–2002, there is a decrease in complexity in most of the catchments in comparison to the subinterval 1935–1968. This complexity loss may be attributed to increased human intervention involving land and crop use, urbanization, commercial navigation and climatic changes due to human activity. Determining the complexity in the riverflow time series is important because an understanding of the extent of complexity may be useful in developing appropriate models of riverflow activity. The extent of complexity may also influence the predictability of the variability in riverflow dynamics.     

顾及有色噪声的GNSS时间序列时域信号提取

随着大型地震的发生,GNSS时间序列中除线性趋势和周期信号外,还存在大量震后瞬态,准确地提取各项时域信号是运用GNSS时间序列进行地学研究的关键.为此,本文提出了顾及有色噪声的GNSS时间序列时域信号提取法.该方法首先基于白噪声（White Noise,WN）+闪烁噪声（Flicker Noise,FN）模型,使用最大似然估计（Maximum Likelihood Estimation,MLE）对震前GNSS时间序列进行参数估计,并根据参数估值来去除震后时间序列中的震前信号,以此获取残差序列;然后将残差序列作为求解特征时间尺度的观测量,WN+FN模型作为观测量的随机模型,并采取非线性最小二乘法（Non-linear Least Squares,NLS）法估计特征时间尺度;最后利用估计的特征时间尺度构建GNSS时间序列函数模型,并采用MLE估计其未知参数,进而实现时域信号的提取.经模拟数据分析,考虑有色噪声时,特征时间尺度估计算法的收敛性提高了25%,各项未知参数的标准差（Standard Deviation,STD）显著下降.最后,将该算法应用于日本区域实测数据,并与传统方法进行了对比分析.

     

Structures and facies associated with the flow of subaerial basaltic lava into a deep freshwater lake: The Sulphur Creek lava flow, North Cascades, Washington

The ca. 8800 ¹⁴C yrs BP Sulphur Creek lava flowed eastward 12 km from the Schriebers Meadow cinder cone into the Baker River valley, on the southeast flank of Mount Baker volcano. The compositionally-zoned basaltic to basaltic andesite lava entered, crossed and partially filled the 2-km-wide and > 100-m-deep early Holocene remnant of Glacial Lake Baker. The valley is now submerged beneath a reservoir, but seasonal drawdown permits study of the distal entrant lava. As a lava volume that may have been as much as 180 × 10⁶ m³ entered the lake, the flow invaded the lacustrine sequence and extended to the opposite (east) side of the drowned Baker River valley. The volume and mobility of the lava can be attributed to a high flux rate, a prolonged eruption, or both. Basalt exposed below the former level of the remnant glacial lake is glassy or microcrystalline and sparsely vesicular, with pervasive hackly or blocky fractures. Together with pseudopillow fractures, these features reflect fracturing normal to penetrative thermal fronts and quenching by water. A fine-grained hyaloclastite facies was probably formed during quench fragmentation or isolated magma-water explosions. Although the structures closely resemble those developed in lava-ice contact environments, establishing the depositional environment for lava exhibiting similar intense fracturing should be confirmed by geologic evidence rather than by internal structure alone. The lava also invaded the lacustrine sequence, forming varieties of peperite, including sills that are conformable within the invaded strata and resemble volcaniclastic breccias. The peperite is generally fragmental and clast- or matrix-supported; fine-grained and rounded fluidal margins occur locally. The lava formed a thickened subaqueous plug that, as the lake drained in the mid-Holocene, was exposed to erosion. The Baker River then cut a 52-m-deep gorge through the shattered, highly erodible basalt.     

The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility of lava flows: an experimental approach

Measurements of the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of natural lavas have shown that AMS varies with depth within a lava flow. We have investigated the reasons for such variation by studying the effects of temperature and strain rate on the AMS of recent lava in the laboratory. Samples of lava from Kilauea were melted and subjected to a range of strain rate and cooling histories. The results show that the degree of anisotropy is a function of both the thermal and shearing history of a sample. High degrees of anisotropy were found only in samples that were deformed at temperatures close to those encountered during eruption and then rapidly quenched. Lavas subjected to similar shear stresses at high temperatures had low degrees of anisotropy if allowed to cool down slowly without further deformation. Additionally, lava subjected to complex shearing yield a lower degree of anisotropy even when high strain rates were imposed on it. These results lead to the conclusion that only the last phase of deformation is detectable using AMS and that high strain rates will not result in high degrees of anisotropy if either deformation ends while lava is still fluid or if the orientation of the maximum shear stress varies with time. The relation between the orientation of the principal susceptibilities and that of shear is less sensitive to variation on shear with time. Consequently, flow directions can be inferred confidently with this type of measurements.     

Geology and geochemistry of Karasugasen lava dome, Daisen–Hiruzen Volcano Group, southwest Japan

Abstract   The geology and geochemistry of pyroclastic flows and fallout tephras formed during the Karasugasen dome eruption in the Daisen–Hiruzen Volcano Group in southwest Japan have been examined in detail. The Karasugasen lava dome erupted at about 26 ka. The eruption began with a vulcanian ash fall, and this was followed by at least eight block and ash flows and a pumice flow. The block and ash flows were produced by the successive collapses of a growing lava dome. This main eruption phase was followed by an eruption of vulcanian ash falls, and finally ended with a sub-Plinian pumice fall. This eruption sequence is typical of the Daisen Volcano during the last three eruption events, which occurred at 58, 26 and 17 ka. The magma produced during the Karasugasen eruption was a typical adakite, with extremely high Sr/Y ratios and low HREE/LREE ratios compared to normal arc lavas. The chemistry of the Karasugasen lavas is almost identical to other Daisen–Hiruzen lavas that were produced from eruptions over an interval of a million years. The continuous supply of a huge amount of adakitic magma (>100 km³) for such a long period suggests a massive homogeneous source material, such as molten Philippine Sea Plate slab. Slab melting is a plausible mechanism for the production of the adakitic lavas at Karasugasen, and hence the Daisen–Hiruzen Volcano Group.     

Spectral analysis of climate data

The complexity of climate variability on all time scales requires the use of several refined tools to unravel its primary dynamics from observations. Indeed, ideas from the theory of dynamical systems have provided new ways of interpreting the information contained in climatic time series.We review the properties of several modern time series analysis methods. Those methods belong to four main classes: Fourier techniques (Blackman-Tukey and Multi-Taper), Maximum Entropy technique, Singular-spectrum techniques and wavelet analysis. Their respective advantages and limitations are illustrated by numerical experiments on synthetic time series. As climate data can be irregularly spaced in time, we also compare three interpolating methods on those time series. Those tests are aimed at showing the pitfalls of the blind use of mathematical or statistical techniques on climate data.We apply those methods to real climatic data from temperature variations over the last century, and the Vostok ice core deuterium record over the last glacial cycle. Then we show how interpretations on the dynamics of climate can be derived on those time scales.     

A stability analysis of a conduit flow model for lava dome eruptions

Periodic variations in magma discharge rate and ground deformation have been commonly observed during lava dome eruptions. We performed a stability analysis of a conduit flow model by Barmin et al. [Barmin, A., Melnik, O., Sparks, R.S.J., 2002. Periodic behavior in lava dome eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 199 (1-2), 173–184], in which the periodic variations in magma flow rate and chamber pressure are reproduced as a result of the temporal and spatial changes of the magma viscosity controlled by the kinetics of crystallization. The model is reduced to a dynamical system where the time derivatives of the magma flow rate (dQ/dt) and the chamber pressure (dP/dt) are functions of Q and P evaluated at a shifted time t − t_?. Here, the time delay t_? represents the time for the viscosity of fluid particle to increase in a conduit. The dynamical system with time delay is approximated by a simple two-dimensional dynamical system of Q and P where t_? is given as a parameter. The results of our linear stability analyses for these dynamical systems indicate that the transition from steady to periodic flow depends on nonlinearities in the steady state relation between Q and P. The steady state relation shows a sigmoidal curve in Q − P phase plane; its slope has negative values at intermediate flow rates. The steady state solutions become unstable, and hence P and Q oscillate periodically, when the negative slope of the steady state relation ([dP/dQ]_S) exceeds a critical value; that is [dP/dQ]_S < − t_?γ/(2V_ch), where V_ch is the chamber volume and γ is an elastic constant which is related to the rigidity of chamber wall. We also found that the period and the pattern of oscillation of the conduit flow primarily depend on a quantity defined by LV_ch/r⁴, where L is the conduit length and r is the conduit radius.     

东亚季风的气候变化及其时间序列模型

本文运用统计方法分析了东亚季风指数的观测序列;同时还揭示了不同时期的东亚季风变化趋势和年代际变化.自1873年以来,东亚季风逐渐减少,同时年代际的变化也十分明显.在1891-1900年间和1971-1980年间,夏季季风指数的十年平均达到极大,另外还出现两个极小值,它们分别出现在1921-1930年和1991-2000年.为了对东亚季风变化进行模拟,我们首先简要地介绍了动力系统的自忆性原理,然后叙述了一个新的时间序列分析方法——基于数据的机制自记忆模型(DAMSM).DAMSM被应用于东亚季风指数研究并且证明了它对东亚季风的拟合及预报能力.