Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation

Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probability_e) and the relative importance of the outcome (importance_o). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.     

The 1997–1998 Activity of Volcán de Colima,Western Mexico: Some Aspects of the Associated Seismic Activity

Volcán de Colima, the most active volcano in Mexico, had a climactic episode on 20 November, 1998. On this date, a dome formed on the small summit crater during the previous few days, collapsed generating block-and-ash flows. The event was preceded by almost twelve months of seismic activity, which continued afterwards for several more months. We analyzed the main seismic activity, which occurred from 20 March, 1998 to 31 March, 1999. The seismicity was dominated by volcano-tectonic earthquakes before the climax, and subsequently by hybrid and long-period earthquakes. We determined the frequency of events for the entire period, and located most of the volcano-tectonic events. To assess the possibility that these earthquakes were generated by the same source, they were tested for their similitude through cross correlation in the time domain. Six groups of similar events, or earthquake families, were generated. The members of these families appeared before the 20 November event, apparently ceasing afterwards. We examined the location of the families' events with respect to an existing gravity model in which an anomalous body of negative density contrast suggests the presence of the magma chamber. Most of the family events occur on top of the anomalous body, which suggests they were associated with the passage of magma through the feeding conduits of the volcano.     

Seismic signature of a phreatic explosion: hydrofracturing damage at Karthala volcano, Grande Comore Island, Indian Ocean

Karthala volcano is a basaltic shield volcano with an active hydrothermal system that forms the southern two-thirds of the Grande Comore Island, off the east coat of Africa, northwest of Madagascar. Since the start of volcano monitoring by the local volcano observatory in 1988, the July 11th, 1991 phreatic eruption was the first volcanic event seismically recorded on this volcano, and a rare example of a monitored basaltic shield. From 1991 to 1995 the VT locations, 0.5<M_l<4.3, show a crack shaped pattern (3 km long, 1 km wide) within the summit caldera extending at depth from –2 km to +2 km relative to sea level. This N-S elongated pattern coincides with the direction of the regional maximum horizontal stress as deduced from regional focal mechanism solutions. This brittle signature of the damage associated with the 1991 phreatic eruption is a typical pattern of the seismicity induced by controlled fluid injections such as those applied at geothermal fields, in oil and gas recovery, or for stress measurements. It suggests the 1991 phreatic eruption was driven by hydraulic fracturing induced by forced fluid flow. We propose that the extremely high LP and VT seismicity rates, relative to other effusive volcanoes, during the climax of the 1991 phreatic explosion, are due to the activation of the whole hydrothermal system, as roughly sized by the distribution of VT hypocenters. The seismicity rate in 1995 was still higher than the pre-eruption seismicity rate, and disagrees with the time pattern of thermo-elastic stress readjustment induced by single magma intrusions at basaltic volcanoes. We propose that it corresponds to the still ongoing relaxation of pressure heterogeneity within the hydrothermal system as suggested by the few LP events that still occurred in 1995.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara     

Moment tensor inversion of explosive long period events recorded on Arenal volcano,Costa Rica,constrained by synthetic tests

In order to constrain the moment tensor solution of an explosive seismic event recorded on Arenal volcano, Costa Rica, we perform tests using synthetic data. These data are generated using a 3D model including the topography of the volcano and the best estimation of the velocity model available for Arenal. Solutions for (i) the moment tensor components, and (ii) the moment tensor plus single forces, are analyzed. When noisy data and mislocated sources are used in the inversion, spurious single forces are easily generated in the solution for the moment tensor components plus single forces. Forces also appear when the inversion is performed using an explosive event recorded on Arenal in 2005. Synthetic tests indicate that these forces might be spurious. However the mechanism is correctly retrieved by the inversion in both solutions. The ability to recover the explosive mechanism for the 2005 event combined with the interpretative aids from the synthetics tests will enable us to invert for the large variation in events observed on Arenal.     

Surface deformation at the Krafla volcano,North Iceland, 1982–1992

Extensive measurements of ground deformation at the Krafla volcano, Iceland, have been made since the beginning in 1975 of a series of eruptions and intrusions into the fissure system that extends north and south of the volcano. I concentrate on measurements before and after the eruption of September 1984, the last event of this series when the largest volume of lava was erupted. The patterns of ground deformation associated with the 1984 eruption, determined by precision levelling, electronic distance measurements and lake level observations, were similar to earlier intrusions and eruptions, in that the surface of the volcano subsided and the fissure system widened as magma moved laterally from a shallow central reservoir into the fissure system. The shallow magma reservoir of Krafla continued to expand for about five years after the eruption, but a slow subsidence of the central area began in 1989. Besides the presence of an inflating and deflating shallow magma reservoir at a depth of 2.5 km beneath the Krafla caldera, another inflating magma reservoir may exist at much greater depth below Krafla. The accumulation of compressive strain by numerous rift intrusions and eruptions since 1975 along the flanks of the north-south Krafla fissure swarm is being released slowly and will probably be reflected in the results of deformation measurements near Krafla for the next several decades. The total horizontal extension of the Krafla rift system in 1975–1984 was about 9 m, equal to about 500 years of constant plate divergence. The extension is twice the accumulated divergence since previous rifting events and eruptions in 1724–1729     

Detection and identification of seismic signals recorded at Krakatau volcano (Indonesia) using artificial neural networks

The Anak Krakatau volcano (Indonesia) has been monitored by a multi-parametric system since 2005. A variety of signal types can be observed in the records of the seismic stations installed on the island volcano. These include volcano-induced signals such as LP, VT, and tremor-type events as well as signals not originating from the volcano such as regional tectonic earthquakes and transient noise signals. The work presented here aims at the realization of a system that automatically detects and identifies the signals in order to estimate and monitor current activity states of the volcano. An artificial neural network approach was chosen for the identification task. A set of parameters was defined, describing waveform and spectrogram properties of events detected by an amplitude-ratio-based (STA/LTA) algorithm. The parameters are fed into a neural network which is, after a training phase, able to generalize input data and identify corresponding event types. The success of the identification depends on the network architecture and training strategy. Several tests have been performed in order to determine appropriate network layout and training for the given problem. The performance of the final system is found to be well suited to get an overview of the seismic activity recorded at the volcano. The reliability of the network classifier, as well as general drawbacks of the methods used, are discussed.     

Seismicity and crustal deformation preceding the January 1996 eruptions at Karymsky Volcanic Center,Kamchatka

Two explosive eruptions occurred on 2 January 1996 at Karymsky Volcanic Center (KVC) in Kamchatka, Russia: the first, dacitic, from the central vent of Karymsky volcano, and the second, several hours later, from Karymskoye lake in the caldera of Akademia Nauk volcano. The main significance of the 1996 volcanic events in KVC was the phreatomagmatic eruption in Karymskoye lake, which was the first eruption in this lake in historical time, and was a basaltic eruption at the acidic volcanic center. The volcanic events were associated with the 1 January Ms 6.7 (Mw 7.1) earthquake that occurred at a distance of about 9–17 km southeast from the volcanoes just before the eruptions. We study the long-term (1972–1995) and short-term (1–2 January 1996) characteristics of crustal deformations and seismicity before the double eruptive event in KVC. The 1972–1995 crustal deformation was homogeneous and characterized by a gradual extension with a steady velocity. The seismic activity in 1972–1995 developed at the depth interval from 0 to 20 km below the Akademia Nauk volcano and spread to the southeast along a regional fault. The seismic activity in January 1996 began with a short sequence of very shallow microearthquakes (M ~0) beneath Karymsky volcano. Then seismic events sharply increased in magnitude (up to mb 4.9) and moved along the regional fault to the southeast, culminating in the Ms 6.7 earthquake. Its aftershocks were located to the southeast and northwest from the main shock, filling the space between the two active volcanoes and the ancient basaltic volcano of Zhupanovsky Vostryaki. The eruption in Karymskoye lake began during the aftershock sequence. We consider that the Ms 6.7 earthquake opened the passageway for basic magma located below Zhupanovsky Vostryaki volcano that fed the eruption in Karymskoye lake.     

Source constraints of Tungurahua volcano explosion events

The most recent eruptive cycle of Tungurahua volcano began in May 2004, and reached its highest level of activity in July 2004. This activity cycle is the last one of a series of four cycles that followed the reawakening and major eruption of Tungurahua in 1999. Between June 30 and August 12, 2004, three temporary seismic and infrasonic stations were installed on the flanks of the volcano and recorded over 2,000 degassing events. The events are classified by waveform character and include: explosion events (the vast majority, spanning three orders of pressure amplitudes at 3.5 km from the vent, 0.1–180 Pa), jetting events, and sequences of repetitive infrasonic pulses, called chugging events. Travel-time analysis of seismic first arrivals and infrasonic waves indicates that explosions start with a seismic event at a shallow depth (<200 m), followed ∼1 s later by an out-flux of gas, ash and solid material through the vent. Cluster analysis of infrasonic signals from explosion events was used to isolate four groups of similar waveforms without apparent correlation to event size, location, or time. The clustering is thus associated with source mechanism and probably spatial distribution. Explosion clusters do not exhibit temporal dependence.     

Reconstruction of the eruptive history of Usu volcano,Hokkaido, Japan,inferred from petrological correlation between tephras and dome lavas

Usu volcano has erupted nine times since 1663. Most eruptive events started with an explosive eruption, which was followed by the formation of lava domes. However, the ages of several summit lava domes and craters remain uncertain. The petrological features of tephra deposits erupted from 1663 to 1853 are known to change systematically. In this study, we correlated lavas with tephras under the assumption that lava and tephra samples from the same event would have similar petrological features. Although the initial explosive eruption in 1663 was not accompanied by lava effusion, lava dome or cryptodome formation was associated with subsequent explosive eruptions. We inferred the location of the vent associated with each event from the location of the associated lava dome and the pyroclastic flow deposit distribution and found that the position of the active vent within the summit caldera differed for each eruption from the late 17th through the 19th century. Moreover, we identified a previously unrecognized lava dome produced by a late 17th century eruption; this dome was largely destroyed by an explosive eruption in 1822 and was replaced by a new lava dome during a later stage of the 1822 event at nearly the same place as the destroyed dome. This new interpretation of the sequence of events is consistent with historical sketches and documents. Our results show that petrological correlation, together with geological evidence, is useful not only for reconstructing volcanic eruption sequences but also for gaining insight into future potential disasters.     

Source process of very-long-period events accompanying long-period signals at Cotopaxi Volcano,Ecuador

Renewed seismic activity of Cotopaxi, Ecuador, began in January 2001 with the increased number of long-period (LP) events, followed by a swarm of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes in November 2001. In late June 2002, the activity of very-long-period (VLP) (2 s) events accompanying LP (0.5–1 s) signals began beneath the volcano. The VLP waveform was characterized by an impulsive signature, which was accompanied by the LP signal showing non-harmonic oscillations. We observed temporal changes of both the VLP and LP signals from the beginning until September 2003: The VLP signal gradually disappeared and the LP signal characterized by decaying harmonic oscillations became dominant. Assuming possible source geometries, we applied a waveform inversion method to the observed waveforms of the largest VLP event. Our inversion and particle motion analyses point to volumetric changes of a sub-vertical crack as the VLP source, which is located at a depth of 2–3 km beneath the northeastern flank. The spectral analysis of the decaying harmonic oscillations of LP events shows frequencies between 2.0 and 3.5 Hz, with quality factors significantly above 100. The increased VT activity and deformation data suggest an intrusion of magma beneath the volcano. A release of gases with small magma particles may have repetitively occurred due to the pressurization, which was caused by sustained bubble growth at the magma ceiling. The released particle-laden gases opened a crack above the magma system and triggered the resonance of the crack. We interpret the VLP and LP events as the gas-release process and the resonance of the crack, respectively.     

Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. II: Hazard consequences and risk calculation

In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert     

The Taurewa Eruptive Episode: evidence for climactic eruptions at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

 The ca. 10,500 years B.P. eruptions at Ruapehu volcano deposited 0.2–0.3 km³ of tephra on the flanks of Ruapehu and the surrounding ring plain and generated the only known pyroclastic flows from this volcano in the late Quaternary. Evidence of the eruptions is recorded in the stratigraphy of the volcanic ring plain and cone, where pyroclastic flow deposits and several lithologically similar tephra deposits are identified. These deposits are grouped into the newly defined Taurewa Formation and two members, Okupata Member (tephra-fall deposits) and Pourahu Member (pyroclastic flow deposits). These eruptions identify a brief (<ca. 2000-year) but explosive period of volcanism at Ruapehu, which we define as the Taurewa Eruptive Episode. This Episode represents the largest event within Ruapehu's ca. 22,500-year eruptive history and also marks its culmination in activity ca. 10,000 years B.P. Following this episode, Ruapehu volcano entered a ca. 8000-year period of relative quiescence. We propose that the episode began with the eruption of small-volume pyroclastic flows triggered by a magma-mingling event. Flows from this event travelled down valleys east and west of Ruapehu onto the upper volcanic ring plain, where their distal remnants are preserved. The genesis of these deposits is inferred from the remanent magnetisation of pumice and lithic clasts. We envisage contemporaneous eruption and emplacement of distal pumice-rich tephras and proximal welded tuff deposits. The potential for generation of pyroclastic flows during plinian eruptions at Ruapehu has not been previously considered in hazard assessments at this volcano. Recognition of these events in the volcanological record is thus an important new factor in future risk assessments and mitigation of volcanic risk at Tongariro Volcanic Centre. Received: 5 July 1998 / Accepted: 12 March 1999     

Relocation of hypocenters from DOMERAPI and BMKG networks: a preliminary result from DOMERAPI project

Merapi volcano located in central Java, Indonesia, is one of the most active stratovolcanoes in the world. Many Earth scientists have conducted studies on this volcano using various methods. The geological features around Merapi are very attractive to be investigated because they have been formed by a complex tectonic process and volcanic activities since tens of millions of years ago. The southern mountain range, Kendeng basin and Opak active fault located around the study area resulted from these processes. DOMERAPI project was conducted to understand deep magma sources of the Merapi volcano comprehensively. The DOMERAPI network was running from October 2013 to mid-April 2015 by deploying 46 broad-band seismometers around the volcano. Several steps, i.e., earthquake event identification, arrival time picking of P and S waves, hypocenter determination and hypocenter relocation, were carried out in this study. We used Geiger’s method (Geiger 1912) for hypocenter determination and double-difference method for hypocenter relocation. The relocation result will be used to carry out seismic tomographic imaging of structures beneath the Merapi volcano and its surroundings. For the hypocenter determination, the DOMERAPI data were processed simultaneously with those from the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) seismic network in order to minimize the azimuthal gap. We found that the majority of earthquakes occurred outside the DOMERAPI network. There are 464 and 399 earthquakes obtained before and after hypocenter relocation, respectively. The hypocenter relocation result successfully detects some tectonic features, such as a nearly vertical cluster of events indicating a subduction-related backthrust to the south of central Java and a cluster of events to the east of Opak fault suggesting that the fault has an eastward dip.     

Caldera formation at Volcán Colima, Mexico, by a large large holocene volcanic debris avalanche

About 4,300 years ago, 10 km³ of the upper cone of ancestral Volcán Colima collapsed to the southwest leaving a horseshoe-shaped caldera 4 km in diameter. The collapse produced a massive volcanic debris avalanche deposit covering over 1550 km² on the southern flanks of the volcano and extending at least 70 km from the former summit. The avalanche followed a steep topographic gradient unobstructed by barriers, resulting in an unusually high area/volume ratio for the Colima deposit. The apparent coefficient of friction (fall height/distance traveled) for the Colima avalanche is 0.06, a low value similar to those of other large-volume deposits. The debris avalanche deposit contains 40–75% angular volcanic clasts from the ancestral cone, a small proportion of vesicular blocks that may be juvenile, and in distal exposures, rare carbonate clasts plucked from the underlying surface by the moving avalanche. Clasts range in size to over 20 m in diameter and are brecciated to different degrees, pulverized, and surrounded by a rock-flour matrix. The upper surface of the deposit shows prominent hummocky topography with closed depressions and surface boulders. A thick, coarse-grained, compositionally zoned scoria-fall layer on the upper northeastern slope of the volcano may have erupted at the time of collapse. A fine-grained surge layer is present beneath the avalanche deposit at one locality, apparently representing an initial blast event. Most of the missing volume of the ancestral volcano has since been restored at an average rate of 0.002 km³/yr through repeated eruptions from the post-caldera cone. As a result, the southern slope of Volcán Colima may again be susceptible to collapse. Over 200,000 people are now living on primary or secondary deposits of the debris avalanche, and a repetition of this event would constitute a volcanic disaster of great magnitude.Ancestral Volcán Colima grew on the southern, trenchward flank of the earlier and larger volcano Nevado de Colima. Trenchward collapse was favored by the buttressing effect of Nevado, the rapid elevation drop to the south, and the intrusion of magma into the southern flank of the ancestral volcano. Other such trenchward-younging, paired volcanoes are known from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Chile, and Japan. The trenchward slopes of the younger cones are common sites for cone collapse to form avalanche deposits, as occurred at Colima and Popocatepetl in Mexico and at San Pedro Volcano in Chile.     

Evolution of a magma-driven earthquake swarm and triggering of the nearby Oldoinyo Lengai eruption, as resolved by InSAR, ground observations and elastic modeling, East African Rift, 2007

An earthquake swarm struck the North Tanzania Divergence, East African Rift over a 2 month period between July and September 2007. It produced approximately 70 M > 4 earthquakes (peak magnitude Mw 5.9), and extensive surface deformation, concurrent with eruptions at the nearby Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. The spatial and temporal evolution of the entire deformation event was resolved by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations, owing to a particularly favorable acquisition programming of the Envisat and ALOS satellites, and was verified by detailed ground observations. Elastic modeling based on the InSAR measurements clearly distinguishes between normal faulting, which dominated during the first week of the event, and intermittent episodes of dike propagation, oblique dike opening and dike-induced faulting during the following month. A gradual decline in the intensity of deformation occurred over the final weeks. Our observations and modeling suggest that the sequence of events was initiated by pressurization of a deep-seated magma chamber below Oldoinyo Lengai which opened the way to lateral dike injection, and dike-induced faulting and seismicity. As dike intrusion terminated, silicate magma ascended the volcano conduit, reacted with the carbonatitic magma, and set off a major episode of explosive ash eruptions producing mixed silicate-carbonatitic ejecta. The rise of the silicate magma within the volcano conduit is attributed to bubble growth and buoyancy increase in the magma chamber either due to a temporary pressure drop after the termination of the diking event, or due to the dynamic effects of seismic wave passage from the earthquake swarm. Similar temporal associations between earthquake swarms and major explosive ash eruptions were observed at Oldoinyo Lengai over the past half century.     

Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.     

Caldera morphology in the western Galápagos and implications for volcano eruptive behavior and mechanisms of caldera formation

Caldera morphology on the six historically active shield volcanoes that comprise Isabela and Fernandina islands, the two westernmost islands in the Galapagos archipelago, is linked to the dynamics of magma supply to, and withdrawal from, the magma chamber beneath each volcano. Caldera size (e.g., volumes 2–9 times that of the caldera of Kilauea, Hawai'i), the absence of well-developed rift zones and the inability to sustain prolonged low-volumetric-flow-rate flank eruptions suggest that magma storage occurs predominantly within centrally located chambers (at the expense of storage within the flanks). The calderas play an important role in the formation of distinctive arcuate fissures in the central part of the volcano: repeated inward collapse of the caldera walls along with floor subsidence provide mechanisms for sustaining radially oriented least-compressive stresses that favor the formation of arcuate fissures within 1–2 km outboard of the caldera rim. Variations in caldera shape, depth-to-diameter ratio, intra-caldera bench location and the extent of talus slope development provide insight into the most recent events of caldera modification, which may be modulated by the episodic supply of magma to each volcano. A lack of correlation between the volume of the single historical collapse event and its associated volume of erupted lava precludes a model of caldera formation linked directly to magma withdrawal. Rather, caldera collapse is probably the result of accumulated loss from the central storage system without sufficient recharge and (as has been suggested for Kilauea) may be aided by the downward drag of dense cumulates and intrusives.     

Gravity and seismicity analyses of the El Chichon volcano,Chiapas, Mexico

Subduction induced compressional stress, lateral displacement faults probably linked to the NW extension of the Polochic-Motagua fault system, and local magma emplacement create a complex geological setting for the El Chichon volcano.Gravity analysis reveals that the principal structures in the area correspond to synclines and anticlines. Downward continuation of the gravity field suggests the presence of magma emplacement SE of the volcano. This magmatic emplacement appears to be the principal cause of the truncation of the syncline in which the volcano lies.Analyses of earthquakes occurring after eruptions show that the vertical distribution of events is confined to a roughly cylindrical zone which correlates well with the region of magmatic emplacement inferred from the gravity analysis.Even though more than 350 km separate the volcano from the Middle American trench, the compressional stress regime reported for the area may correlate with subduction stress (N30°E). However, the strike direction for the principal faults in the zone, N60°W, permits us to postulate that the NW extension of the Polochic-Motagua fault system is implicated in the local tectonics of the El Chichon area.     

A gravitational spreading origin for the Socompa debris avalanche

Socompa Volcano arguably provides the world's best-exposed example of a sector collapse-derived debris avalanche deposit. New observations lead us to re-interpret the origin of the sector collapse. We show that it was triggered by failure of active thrust-anticlines in sediments and ignimbrites underlying the volcano. The thrust-anticlines were a result of gravitational spreading of substrata under the volcano load. About 80% of the resulting avalanche deposit is composed of substrata formerly residing under the volcano and in the anticlines. The collapse scar can be traced up to 5 km from the edifice, truncating two spreading-related anticlines, which collapsed in the event. Outcrops near the volcano preserve evidence of edifice material being carried along on top of mobilised substrata. On the north side of the scar, the avalanche motion was initially at right angles to the failure edge. Structural relations indicate that immediately prior to collapse the substrata disintegrated, became effectively liquidised, and were ejected from beneath the edifice. Catastrophic mobilisation of substrata probably resulted from breakdown of ignimbrite clasts and cement. It may have occurred through progressive rock fracture by high shear strain during spreading. Material ejected from under Socompa formed a layer on which volcanic edifice debris was transported. This interpretation of events explains the puzzling observation that avalanche units with the lowest gravitational potential energy moved the furthest. It can also account for avalanche motion normal to the collapse scar walls. Ignimbrites and other rock types probably capable of similar behaviour underlie many other volcanoes. Identification of spreading at other sites could therefore be a first step towards assessment of the potential for this style of catastrophic sector collapse.