Regional frequency analysis of daily rainfall extremes using L-moments approach

Daily extreme precipitation values are among environmental events with the most disastrous consequences for human society. Information on the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme precipitations is essential for sustainable water resources management, planning for weather-related emergencies, and design of hydraulic structures. In the present study, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfalls was investigated for Golestan province located in the northeastern Iran. This study aimed to find appropriate regional frequency distributions for maximum daily rainfalls and predict the return values of extreme rainfall events (design rainfall depths) for the future. L-moment regionalization procedures coupled with an index rainfall method were applied to maximum rainfall records of 47 stations across the study area. Due to complex geographic and hydro-climatological characteristics of the region, an important research issue focused on breaking down the large area into homogeneous and coherent sub-regions. The study area was divided into five homogeneous regions, based on the cluster analysis of site characteristics and tests for the regional homogeneity. The goodness-of-fit results indicated that the best fitting distribution is different for individual homogeneous regions. The difference may be a result of the distinctive climatic and geographic conditions. The estimated regional quantiles and their accuracy measures produced by Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the estimation uncertainty as measured by the RMSE values and 90% error bounds is relatively low when return periods are less than 100 years. But, for higher return periods, rainfall estimates should be treated with caution. More station years, either from longer records or more stations in the regions, would be required for rainfall estimates above T=100 years. It was found from the analyses that, the index rainfall (at-site average maximum rainfall) can be estimated reasonably well as a function of mean annual precipitation in Golestan province. Index rainfalls combined with the regional growth curves, can be used to estimate design rainfalls at ungauged sites. Overall, it was found that cluster analysis together with the L-moments based regional frequency analysis technique could be applied successfully in deriving design rainfall estimates for northeastern Iran. The approach utilized in this study and the findings are of great scientific and practical merit, particularly for the purpose of planning for weather-related emergencies and design of hydraulic engineering structures.     

Regional frequency analysis of autumnal floods in the province of Quebec, Canada

A large number of models have been proposed over the last years for regional flood frequency analysis in northern regions. However, these models dealt generally with snowmelt-caused spring floods. This paper deals with the adaptation, application, and comparison of two regional frequency analysis methods, canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and universal canonical kriging (UCK), on autumnal floods of 29 stations from the C?te-Nord region (QC, Canada). Three possible periods during which autumnal floods can take place are tested. The absolute and specific flood peak and volume quantiles are also studied. A jack-knife resampling procedure is applied to compare the performance of each model according to the selected period and the type of quantile. The period of September 1st to December 15th is found to be optimal to represent autumnal floods and specific quantiles were shown to lead to better results than absolute quantiles. Variables that explain best the autumnal floods are the basin area, the fraction of the area covered with lakes, and the average of mean July, August, and September maximal temperatures. The CCA model performs slightly better than UCK.     

基于RS和GIS的松辽平原黑土流失研究

基于RS和GIS技术,利用1986年TM数据和2001年ETM数据,对松辽平原黑土分布现状与动态变化进行监测研究,分析了黑土流失特点及其时空分布规律,并引入冲沟线密度概念量化黑土流失趋势。结果表明：松辽平原典型黑土面积54 989.92 km^2,沿京哈铁路线呈弧形条带状展布;1986-2001年间,黑土区水土流失面积达3 765.21 km^2,减少速度为251.01 km^2/a,集中在河流两岸、较大建筑用地附近和与盐碱土接壤的地区;仅考虑冲沟的有效作用域,预计到2016年黑土面积平均会有1411.0 km^2/a转变为冲沟,黑土流失状况不容乐观。     

Application of health risk assessment method for geological environment at national and regional scales

Health risk, defined as possibility or probability of health damage, illness or death of humans due to exposure to risk factors in the environment, was derived for geological environment (soils) and estimated at national scale for the whole Europe and at more detailed regional scale for Slovak Republic. The assessment was based on data obtained from international geochemical mapping of Europe (Geochemical Atlas of the Europe—827 soil samples) and national geochemical mapping programme of the Slovak Republic (9,860 soil samples). The following chemical elements were evaluated: As, B, Ba, Be, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se and Zn. The health risk assessment method was based on calculations of average daily doses of individual elements analysed in every collected soil sample. Exposure levels were set by using exposure parameters and reference doses from integrated databases of US EPA. The results of calculations were transformed into various sorts of maps (dot, pixel) to delineate areas where increased contents of risk elements can pose risk to human health. The average levels of chronic and carcinogenic risk are presented in the form of tables for single European countries and administrative units of Slovak republic. The results of European mapping (Geochemical Atlas of Europe) indicate that increased levels of potentially toxic elements in soil (mainly As, Pb and Ni) occur primarily in the countries of southern and western Europe. Such elements are associated with increased health risk for resident population. For the countries of northern Europe health risk was estimated at significantly lower level. Relatively high sampling density in Slovak Republic made it possible to calculate health risk at more detailed scale for individual administrative units (municipalities, provinces). The increased health risk level was found in areas well known for high soil contamination (e.g. mining areas).     

Rice is a major exposure route for arsenic in Chakdaha block,Nadia district,West Bengal,India: A probabilistic risk assessment

The importance or otherwise of rice as an exposure pathway for As ingestion by people living in Bengal and other areas impacted by hazardous As-bearing groundwaters is currently a matter of some debate. Here this issue is addressed by determining the overall increased cancer risk due to ingestion of rice in an As-impacted district of West Bengal. Human target cancer health risks have been estimated through the intake of As-bearing rice by using combined field, laboratory and computational methods. Monte Carlo simulations were run following fitting of model probability curves to measured distributions of (i) As concentration in rice and drinking water and (ii) inorganic As content of rice and fitting distributions to published data on (i) ingestion rates and (ii) body weight and point estimates on bioconcentration factors, exposure duration and other input variables. The distribution of As in drinking water was found to be substantially lower than that reported by previous authors for As in tube wells in the same area, indicating that the use of tube well water as a proxy for drinking water is likely to result in human health risks being somewhat overestimated. The calculated median increased lifetime cancer risk due to cooked rice intake was 7.62 × 10⁻⁴, higher than the 10⁻⁴–10⁻⁶ range typically used by the USEPA as a threshold to guide determination of regulatory values and similar to the equivalent risk from water intake. The median total risk from combined rice and water intake was 1.48 × 10⁻³. The contributions to this median risk from drinking water, rice and cooking of rice were found to be 48%, 44% and 8%, respectively. Thus, rice is a major potential source of As exposure in the As-affected study areas in West Bengal and the most important exposure pathway for groups exposed to low or no As in drinking water.     

Evaluating multiple performance criteria to calibrate the distributed hydrological model of the upper Neckar catchment

Performance criteria are used in the automated calibration of hydrological models to determine and minimise the misfit between observations and model simulations. In this study, a multiobjective model calibration framework is used to analyse the trade-offs between Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of flows (NSE), the NSE of log-transformed flows (NSE_logQ), and the sum-squared error of monthly discharge sums (SSE_MQ). These criteria are known to put different emphasis on average and high flows, low flows, and average volume-balance components. Twenty-two upper Neckar subbasins whose catchment area ranges from 56 to 3,976 km² were modelled with the distributed mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) to investigate these trade-offs. The 53 global parameters required for each instance of the mHM model were estimated with the global search algorithm AMALGAM. Equally weighted compromise solutions based on the selected criteria and extreme ends of all bi-criterion Pareto fronts were used after each calibration run to analyse the trade-off between different performance criteria. Calibration results were further analysed with ten additional criteria commonly used for evaluating hydrological model performance. Results showed that the trade-off patterns were similar for all subbasins irrespective of catchment size and that the largest trade-offs were consistently observed between the NSE and NSE_logQ criteria. Simulations with the compromise solution provided a well-balanced fit to individual characteristics of the streamflow hydrographs and exhibited improved volume balance. Other performance criteria such as bias, the Pearson correlation coefficient, and the relative variability remained largely unchanged between compromise solutions and Pareto extremes. Parameter sets of the best NSE fit and the compromise solution of the largest basin (gauge at Plochingen) were used to simulate streamflow at the other 21 internal subbasins for a 10-year evaluation period without re-calibration. Both parameter sets performed well in the individual basins with median NSE values of 0.74 and 0.72, respectively. The compromise solution resulted in similar NSE_logQ-ranges and a 14.6 % lower median volume-balance error which indicates an overall better model performance. The results demonstrate that the performance criteria for hydrological model calibration should be selected in accordance with the anticipated model predictions. The compromise solution provides an advance to the use of single criteria in model calibration.     

Effects of misclassification costs on mapping mineral prospectivity

Mineral prospectivity mapping is a classification process because in a given study area, a specific region is classified as either a prospective or non-prospective area. The cost of false negative errors differs from the cost of false positive errors because false positive errors lead to wasting much more financial and material resources, whereas false negative errors result in the loss of mineral deposits. Traditional machine learning algorithms using for mapping mineral prospectivity are aimed to minimize classification errors and ignore the cost-sensitive effects. In this study, the effects of misclassification costs on mapping mineral prospectivity are explored. The cost-sensitive neural network (CSNN) for minimizing misclassification costs is applied to map Fe polymetallic prospectivity in China’s southwestern Fujian metalorganic belt (SFMB). A CSNN with a different cost ratio ranging from 1:10 to 10:1 was used to represent various misclassification costs. The cross-validation results indicated a lower misclassification cost compared to traditional neural networks through a threshold-moving based CSNN. The CSNN’s predictive results were compared to those of a traditional neural network, and the results demonstrate that the CSNN method is useful for mapping mineral prospectivity. The targets can be used to further explore undiscovered deposits in the study area.     

Methodology and applications for the benefit cost analysis of the seismic risk reduction in building portfolios at broadscale

This article presents a methodology for an estimate of the benefit cost ratio of the seismic risk reduction in buildings portfolio at broadscale, for a world region, allowing comparing the results obtained for the countries belonging to that region. This methodology encompasses (1) the generation of a set of random seismic events and the evaluation of the spectral accelerations at the buildings location; (2) the estimation of the buildings built area, the economic value, as well as the classification in structural typologies; (3) the development of vulnerability curves for each typology; (4) the estimation of the annual average loss of the buildings portfolio in the current conditions as well as in the case of a hypothetical structural intervention. The benefit cost ratio is estimated as the difference between the estimates of the present value of these two annual average losses, divided by the retrofitting costs. This methodology has been applied to the portfolio of public schools of 14 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, for evaluating the feasibility of the seismic risk reduction at a national scale.     

Image analysis algorithms for estimating porous media multiphase flow variables from computed microtomography data: a validation study

Image analysis of three-dimensional microtomographic image data has become an integral component of pore scale investigations of multiphase flow through porous media. This study focuses on the validation of image analysis algorithms for identifying phases and estimating porosity, saturation, solid surface area, and interfacial area between fluid phases from gray-scale X-ray microtomographic image data. The data used in this study consisted of (1) a two-phase high precision bead pack from which porosity and solid surface area estimates were obtained and (2) three-phase cylindrical capillary tubes of three different radii, each containing an air–water interface, from which interfacial area was estimated. The image analysis algorithm employed here combines an anisotropic diffusion filter to remove noise from the original gray-scale image data, a k-means cluster analysis to obtain segmented data, and the construction of isosurfaces to estimate solid surface area and interfacial area. Our method was compared with laboratory measurements, as well as estimates obtained from a number of other image analysis algorithms presented in the literature. Porosity estimates for the two-phase bead pack were within 1.5% error of laboratory measurements and agreed well with estimates obtained using an indicator kriging segmentation algorithm. Additionally, our method estimated the solid surface area of the high precision beads within 10% of the laboratory measurements, whereas solid surface area estimates obtained from voxel counting and two-point correlation functions overestimated the surface area by 20–40%. Interfacial area estimates for the air–water menisci contained within the capillary tubes were obtained using our image analysis algorithm, and using other image analysis algorithms, including voxel counting, two-point correlation functions, and the porous media marching cubes. Our image analysis algorithm, and other algorithms based on marching cubes, resulted in errors ranging from 1% to 20% of the analytical interfacial area estimates, whereas voxel counting and two-point correlation functions overestimated the analytical interfacial area by 20–40%. In addition, the sensitivity of the image analysis algorithms on the resolution of the microtomographic image data was investigated, and the results indicated that there was little or no improvement in the comparison with laboratory estimates for the resolutions and conditions tested.     

Scaling property of regional floods in New South Wales Australia

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is often used in hydrology to estimate flood quantiles when there is a limitation of at-site recorded flood data. One of the commonly used RFFA methods is the index flood method, which is based on the assumptions that a region satisfies criterion of simple scaling and it can be treated homogeneous. Another RFFA method is quantile regression technique where prediction equations are developed for flood quantiles of interest as function of catchment characteristics. In this paper, the scaling property of regional floods in New South Wales (NSW) State in Australia is investigated. The results indicate that the annual maximum floods in NSW satisfy a simple scaling assumption. The application of a heterogeneity test, however, reveals that NSW flood data set does not satisfy the criteria for a homogeneous region. Finally, a set of prediction equations are developed for NSW using quantile regression technique; an independent test shows that these equations can provide reasonably accurate design flood estimates with a median relative error of about 27%.     

Application of geostatistical methods to estimation of water flow from upper reservoir of Azad pumped storage power plant

The objective of this paper is to estimate water seepage from the upper reservoir of Azad pumped storage power plant, based on combined geotechnical investigations and geostatistical methods. In order to select the optimum water tightening alternative, such as clay blanket, concrete cover (or concrete lining), geomembrane, asphalt cover, etc., estimation of water seepage from the reservoir is essential. Six exploratory boreholes were drilled at the pumped storage reservoir area and permeability tests (Lugeon tests) were conducted in all of them. Records at the boreholes have been considered as the main source for seepage calculations. Due to expansion of upper reservoir and a few boreholes, distribution of permeability and permeability changes in the reservoir area is not an indicator for reservoir. In this research using geostatistical method (Kriging), Lugeon values have been estimated for walls of reservoir. According to correspondence between estimated permeability distribution and geological conditions, the estimated values are acceptable. In addition, results show that in about 60% of tests, permeability is very high and potential of water seepage is very dangerous. Afterward, seepage was estimated for reservoir by using both analytical (Vedernikov method) and numerical method. Results from both methods are very close together and the average seepage is around 280,000 m³/day according to analytical and numerical results. Regarding results and general geological considerations, seepage is concentrated at fault zones. Results show that using appropriate permeability distribution, the estimated values of water seepage are acceptable and reliable. Due to the high amount of water seepage and economical value of water in this region, water tightening is necessary.     

An assessment of soil erosion probability and erosion rate in a tropical mountainous watershed using remote sensing and GIS

Remote sensing data and Geographical Information System (GIS) has been integrated with the weighted index overlay (WIO) method and E ₃₀ model for the identification and delineation of soil erosion susceptibility zones and the assessment of rate of soil erosion in the mountainous sub-watershed of River Manimala in Kerala (India). Soil erosion is identified as the one of the most serious environmental problems in the human altered mountainous environment. The reliability of estimated soil erosion susceptibility and soil loss is based on how accurately the different factors were estimated or prepared. In the present analysis, factors that are considered to be influence the soil erosion are: land use/land cover, NDVI, landform, drainage density, drainage frequency, lineament frequency, slope, and relative relief. By the WIO analysis, the area is divided into zones representing low (33.30%), moderate (33.70%), and high (33%) erosion proneness. The annual soil erosion rate of the area under investigation was calculated by carefully determining its various parameters and erosion for each of the pixels were estimated individually. The spatial pattern thus created for the area indicates that the average annual rate of soil erosion in the area was ranging from 0.04 mm yr⁻¹ to 61.80 mm yr⁻¹. The high soil erosion probability and maximum erosion rate was observed in areas with high terrain alteration, high relief and slopes with the intensity and duration of heavy precipitation during the monsoons.     

Landslide risk analysis in the area North of Lisbon (Portugal): evaluation of direct and indirect costs resulting from a motorway disruption by slope movements

A risk analysis is developed for a test site located in the area north of Lisbon using a scenario of a temporary interruption of the motorway A9 due to a landslide of rotational or translational type. Landslide susceptibility is assessed at the regional scale independently for rotational and translational slides, comparing the landslide distribution with a set of assumed independent landslide predisposing factors. Susceptibility models are validated and classified through the computation of prediction rate curves based on the temporal partition of the landslide data sets. Landslide hazard maps are based on a scenario of future landslide occurrence for the next 27 years. These maps allow the definition of two critical areas on the motorway A9 with regards to landslide susceptibility. Direct costs associated with both critical spots are assessed taking into account the probable affected area of the motorway, and the reconstruction costs. Indirect costs derived from the traffic interruption are evaluated considering the alternatives paths to the motorway, and include costs resulting from: (1) additional fuel consumption; (2) decrease in tollgate income; and (3) loss of productive time. Results show that indirect costs may be 24 to 43 times higher than direct costs, assuming a temporary interruption of the motorway for 6 months.     

Intrinsic biodegradation of toluene coupled to the microbial reduction of ferric iron: laboratory column experiments

Intrinsic biodegradation of toluene coupled with the microbial reduction of ferric iron (Fe(III)) as the terminal electron acceptor was studied by using laboratory column experiments under continuous flow conditions. Columns were packed with contaminated aquifer sediment and N₂-purged groundwater taken from the western part of the Gardermoen aquifer. The columns were operated anaerobically at 8 °C (in-situ temperature). Chloride was initially used to characterize flow properties of the columns. Intrinsic biodegradation of toluene, including abiotic loss and biological loss, was estimated by comparing breakthrough curves of toluene for live columns and sterilized control columns based on mass balance in steady-state conditions. The column experiments were run at two different flow velocities. The estimated average intrinsic rate was -0.73 and -0.53 mM day^-1 for pore-water velocities of 1.75 and 2.68 cm h^-1, respectively, corresponding to -0.27 and -0.22 mM day^-1 in biological loss rate. The results indicate that intrinsic biodegradation of toluene could be used as an efficient remediation approach for contaminated groundwater at the Gardermoen fire-fighting training site.     

基于电阻率测井的天然气水合物饱和度估算及估算精度分析

利用电阻率测井基于阿尔奇公式能够估算孔隙空间中天然气水合物饱和度。基于神狐海域的水合物钻井(SH2站位)资料,利用密度反演的地层孔隙度与地层因子交会图,计算出估算水合物饱和度的阿尔奇常数。假定地层中水合物呈均匀分布,利用电阻率资料计算的该站位水合物饱和度平均为24%,最高达44%,水合物饱和度在垂向上具有明显的不均匀性;利用孔隙水氯离子异常估算的SH2站位水合物饱和度平均值为25%,最高值达48%,厚度为25 m。这两种方法估算的水合物饱和度基本吻合,利用电阻率资料计算的饱和度与阿尔奇常数和饱和度指数及孔隙度有关。     

Using the DPFT approach to improve flash flood forecasting models

DPFT is a lumped approach for operational flash flood forecasting, based on the unit hydrograph. Using a multi-event alternating iterative algorithm, it identifies a robust and stable average transfer function and a consistent set of effective rainfall series associated with each event at the same time. This key ingredient allows an objective calibration of different loss functions, relating gauged precipitation and effective rainfall. A case study based on an operational French basin (545 km²) is presented. Three lumped production functions have been calibrated and compared. The results show that more elaborate models of loss functions must be proposed, and some possible directions for this are pointed out.     

基于二次重现期的城市两级排涝标准衔接的设计暴雨

使用珠海市1984—2015年R_1h-R_6h、R_1h-R_12h、R_1h-R_24h3个历时暴雨组合推算排水排涝两级标准衔接的设计暴雨水平。应用阿基米德极值Copula与Kendall分布函数构建不同历时暴雨组合的联合概率分布模式。分析各历时暴雨组合的遭遇概率、"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期,以出现最大可能概率的方法推算各组合的设计暴雨值。结果表明:二次重现期所对应的累积频率更准确地代表了特定设计频率情况下不同历时暴雨组合的风险率;重现期分别为2年、3年、5年、10年、20年、50年、100年推算的二次重现期设计值介于"或"重现期和"且"重现期设计值之间,小于相应的边缘分布重现期设计值,R_1h-R_{6 h}组合推算的设计值相对误差为3.1%~7.1%;R_1h-R_12h组合推算的设计值相对误差为3.3%~9.3%;R_{1 h}-R_{24 h}组合推算的设计值相对误差为3.9%~12.0%。二次重现期推算的不同历时暴雨组合的设计暴雨分位值为内涝工程的风险管理和管渠尺寸提供了优选标准和设计参考。     

地区线性矩法估算的暴雨频率设计值空间连续性问题探讨

地区线性矩法(Regional L-moments Analysis,RLMA)是目前最先进的频率估算方法之一,自20世纪90年代起被广泛应用于美国及其他一些国家的防洪设计标准的分析计算中;我国近年也在太湖流域暴雨频率分析中成功地采用推广了这一水文气象途径的频率计算方法,积累了实际经验。但是,由于地面雨量站点有限、资料长度有限以及站点空间分布的不均匀等问题,研究区中相邻水文气象一致区之间暴雨频率估算值会出现空间不连续性的现象,这个空间不一致的问题尚没有得到合理的解决。在简要介绍地区线性矩法推求频率估计值的基础上,着重讨论并介绍一种概念清楚、简单易操作的基于空间往返二次内插的校正方法,来解决频率估算值空间不连续的问题。这种空间内插平差主要通过构造一个与研究区实测站点控制面积相应分辨率的虚拟网格站网来实现。研究结果表明,经过平差后校正的研究区内各站点的频率估计值的经验频率与理论概率更加接近,频率估计值的空间分布也更加合理。     

Evidence of self-organization in Sumatra earthquakes: recurrence time and its geodynamical implications

Risk reduction as an outcome only takes place if results of risk estimation studies are used to develop action plans for risk-management and risk-reduction strategies. This paper describes an automated model that uses the output of existing earthquake loss estimation methodologies to support decision makers in evaluating a set of competing seismic mitigation strategies and exploring their impact in reducing socio-economic losses of urban settlements. The proposed model is structured to quantify the monetary value of earthquake losses and to find an optimal budget allocation assigned to each mitigation strategy based on user input. The optimization method takes into account both pre- and post-earthquake expenditures, such as costs of building upgrades, critical facility enhancement, temporary shelter provisions, debris removal, hospitalization and human casualty. The system consists of five main modules: (1) building damage function; (2) mitigated damage function; (3) cost estimation function; (4) optimization function; and (5) user interface function. Whereas the optimization function provides the optimal values assigned to each mitigation alternative based on the estimated costs and a defined budget, the user interface allows the decision maker to interact with the software in each step and plan mitigation strategies that best suit the user’s socio-economic requirements and limitations. The outputs of the proposed model are presented with respect to an application in a pilot study area within a vulnerable city district of Tehran, Iran.     

变化环境下西江北江枯水流量联合分布分析

基于Clayton copula和Kendall分布函数分析广东西江马口站和北江三水站枯水流量的联合分布及其风险概率。根据两站流量之间的时空关联与变异,以1959-2010年西江马口站历年连续7日平均最小流量和对应期间的北江三水站枯水流量为样本,分别计算1959-1985年和1986-2010年两个时段(分别称为样本A和样本B)的西江北江枯水流量联合分布的"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期及其最可能的设计分位数。结果表明:①样本B中马口站的枯水流量设计值小于样本A相应重现期设计值,三水站则显著增大;②1985年后西江和北江枯水流量同频率遭遇的可能性较前期明显减小;③二次重现期所对应的累积频率代表了特定设计频率情况下西江和北江枯水流量遭遇的风险率;④由更严谨的二次重现期计算的马口站枯水流量最大可能设计值Q_7d,T=20a、Q_7d,T=10a和Q_7d,T=2a设计值或更适合分别作为西江三角洲供水规划、生态需水和调水压咸设计参考值。