Short-term prediction of fof2 using time-delay neural network

To test the ability and efficacy of neural networks in short-term prediction of ionospheric parameters, this study used the time series of the ionospheric foF2 data from Slough station during solar cycles 21 and 22. It describes different neural network architectures that led to similar conclusions on one-hour- ahead foF2 prediction. This prediction is compared with observations and results from linear and persistence models considered here as two special cases of the neural networks.     

A correlation study between time-weighted magnetic indices and the high latitude ionosphere

Time weighted accumulations of the ap, AE and PC magnetic indices have been here analysed together with the hourly values of the critical frequency of the F2 ionospheric layer, foF2, coming from several ionospheric stations located in the European longitudinal sector at geographic latitudes ranged between 60°N and 68°N. The preliminary results obtained for different seasons and for different solar activity conditions indicate that the response time of the high latitude ionosphere to the magnetic activity is of the order of about 15 and/or 20 hours depending on the magnetic index considered.     

The development of a neural network based short term foF2 forecast program

The maximum electron density is related to the critical frequency of the F2 layer in the ionosphere, foF2, which is a measurable quantity. Neural Networks (NNs) were trained to forecast foF2 using 24 years of foF2 data from Grahamstown (26.5°E, 33.3°S), South Africa.This paper is in two parts. The first part describes how NNs were used to find the optimum input parameters required to forecast foF2 in the short term. Several NNs were trained with different data in order to find the optimum combination of ionospheric indices (I-indices) to use as inputs. The rms error between the measured and predicted output values was used for determing when a combination of input parameters was optimum. The I-indices were based on recent and archived values of foF2. It was found that the NN requires short term and long term indicators in order to forecast foF2. The short term indicators were the values of foF2 for the previous 1, 2, 3, and 4 hours. The longer term indicators were 30-day running mean values of foF2. These values were based on the running means of the 4 hours ahead of the most recently measured (current) value, ending on the previous days value. We used the rms error between the measured and predicted values of foF2 as an indicator of how well the NN had trained.In the second part it is shown how two networks can be used together to provide a short term forecast of foF2, given recently measured values, and how the rms errors increase with increasing forecast delay time. Using day number, hour, and the above mentioned short and long term indicators as inputs, a Neural Network (NN1) was trained to forecast the value of foF2 for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 25 hours ahead. The errors from these 5 outputs were then squared and used as targets to train a second Neural Network (NN2) using the same input data. The square root of the outputs of NN2 were then used as an estimate of the rms errors in the forecast of NN1. A working version of this program can be viewed on http://phlinux.ru.ae.za/hoia .     

On the effects of geomagnetic storms and pre storm phenomena on low and middle latitude ionospheric F2

This paper presents some features of the ionospheric response observed in equatorial and mid-latitudes region to two strong geomagnetic storms, occurring during Oct. 19–23, 2001 and May 13–17, 2005 and to understand the phenomena of pre-storm that lead to very intense geomagnetic storms. The result point to the fact that pre-storm phenomena that leads to intense ionospheric storm are; large southward turning of interplanetary magnetic field Bz, high electric field, increase in flow speed stream, increase in proton number density, high pressure ram and high plasma beta. The magnitude of Bz turning into southward direction from northward highly depends upon the severity of the storm and the variation in F2 layer parameter at the time of geomagnetic storm are strongly dependent upon the storm intensity. A detailed analysis of the responses of the ionosphere shows that during the storm periods, foF2 values depleted simultaneously both in the equatorial and mid latitude. Observation also shows that low to moderate variations in ionospheric F2 at the pre-storm period may signal the upcoming of large ionospheric disturbances at the main phase. The ionospheric F2response for low and mid latitude does not show any significant differences during the storm main phase and the pre-storm period. The ionospheric response during the pre-storm period is thought very puzzling. The period is observed to be depleted throughout with low-moderate effect across all the stations in the low and mid latitude.     

The “Same Side – Opposite Side Effect” of the Heliospheric Current Sheet in Ionospheric Negative Storms

Using 141 CME-interplanetary shock (CME-IPS) events and foF2 from eight ionosonde stations from January 2000 to September 2005, from the statistical results we find that there is a “same side?–?opposite side effect” in ionospheric negative storms, i.e., a large portion of ionospheric negative disturbances are induced by the same-side events (referring to the CMEs whose source located on the same side of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) as the Earth), while only a small portion is associated with the opposite-side events (the CMEs source located on the opposite side of the HCS as the Earth); the ratio is 128 vs. 46, and it reaches 41 vs. 14 for the intense ionospheric negative storms. In addition, the ionospheric negative storms associated with the same-side events are often more intense. A comparison of the same-side event (4 April 2000) and the opposite-side event (2 April 2001) shows that the intensity of the ionospheric negative storm caused by the same-side event is higher than that by the opposite-side event, although their initial conditions are quite similar. Our preliminary results show that the HCS has an “impeding” effect to CME-IPS, which results in a shortage of energy injection in the auroral zone and restraining the development of ionospheric negative perturbations.     

A comprehensive view of solar-terrestrial relationships in terms of a chain of four dynamo-powered plasma acceleration processes

This paper emphasizes an effort to link processes which relate solar activity and magnetospheric disturbances in terms of energy transfer through a chain of four elements. In this view, each element is explicitly thought to be powered by a dynamo, namely the solar wind generation dynamo, the solar flare dynamo, the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo and the auroral dynamo, respectively. Each dynamo powers a plasma acceleration process by the Lorentz force and the plasma flows thus generated are the solar wind, the flare-generated solar wind disturbance, the magnetospheric plasma convection and the ionospheric convection, respectively. Each plasma flow conveys the energy from one element to the next in the chain. Some of the kinetic energy of the photospheric plasma is eventually deposited in the polar ionosphere as heat energy.     

Ionospheric index MF2n for monthly median foF2 modeling and long-term prediction over European area

A new ionospheric index MF2n for monthly median foF2 modeling and long-term prediction has been proposed. A comparison with other direct solar and ionospheric indexes used in practice has shown the advantage of MF2n index in retrospective mode. A method for monthly MF2n index long-term prediction is proposed. Long-term (3, 6 and 12 months in advance) predicted MF2n were used to calculate foF2. A comparison with foF2 observations and ITU-R model predictions (based on the official R₁₂ long-term forecast) has shown the advantage of the proposed approach based on the new index MF2n.     

Prediction of development of geomagnetic storms using the solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function ϵ

It is shown that by monitoring time variations of the solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function ?(t) upstream of the solar wind, one should be able to predict fairly accurately the growth and decay of individual magnetospheric substorms and storms.     

Statistical investigation of the saturation effect of sunspot on the ionospheric foF2

This study explores the relationship between the sunspot number (SSN) and the ionospheric foF2. It is of interest to locate the SSN value at which the foF2 values are saturated. A regression model is built based on the data of the strictly rise period of the 21st solar cycle recorded by eight ionosonde stations scattering roughly between 40°N and 40°S geomagnetic latitude. Results show that clear saturation features appear around the equatorial anomaly crest region.     

Real time Kp predictions from solar wind data using neural networks

Multilayer feed-forward neural network models are developed to make three-hour predictions of the planetary magnetospheric Kp index. The input parameters for the networks are the B_z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field, the solar wind density n, and the solar wind velocity V, given as three-hour averages. The networks are trained with the error back-propagation algorithm on data sequences extracted from the 21^st solar cycle. The result is a hybrid model consisting of two expert networks providing Kp predictions with an RMS error of 0.96 and a correlation of 0.76 in reference to the measured Kp values. This result can be compared with the linear correlation between V(t) and Kp(t + 3 hours) which is 0.47. The hybrid model is tested on geomagnetic storm events extracted from the 22^nd solar cycle. The hybrid model is implemented and real time predictions of the planetary magnetospheric Kp index are available at http://www.astro.lu. se/-fredrikb.     

A hydromagnetic theory of geomagnetic storms and auroras

A theory of geomagnetic storms, auroras and associated effects is further developed. It depends on motions in the Earth's exosphere or magnetosphere initiated by a combination of pressure and frictional drag of the solar wind and modified and extended by electric fields and currents in the ionosphere. Motion may be non-divergent, streamline flow opposed only by Lorentz forces in the ionosphere and not propagating to Earth, or divergent, non-streamline motion opposed by Lorentz forces in the Earth. The two types of motion are coupled in the E region where the former is identified with free flow of Hall current and the generation of non-streamline motion. The latter is identified with blockage of Hall current, the creation of a polarization field and hence the generation of streamline motion.

A theory of all components of a geomagnetic storm is given in terms of combinations of these motions, and their distant, ionospheric and earth currents. This includes a new theory of the preliminary reverse part of the DS field and the transition from the sudden commencement to the main phase of the DS field. It is extended to introduce briefly a theory of auroras based mainly on ionospheric drifts caused by the magnetospheric motions.     

Springtime effects in the mesosphere and ionosphere observed at northern midlatitudes

Nighttime volume emission rates and rotational temperatures, obtained from simultaneous observations of molecular oxygen and hydroxyl airglow at Almaty (43.25°N, 76.92°E) and Sierra-Nevada (37.2°N, 356.7°E), along with ionospheric density derived from foF2 in the vertical sounding ionograms over Almaty are analysed to study the variability and coupling of parameters observed in the upper mesosphere and ionosphere during the period of February - April, 2000.Ionospheric critical frequency measurements and airglow observations by the Mesopause Rotational Temperature Imager (MORTI) at Almaty and the Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager (SATI) at Sierra-Nevada Observatories show an increase in long-period planetary wave (PW) activity from the end of February until the middle of March, 2000.Very good agreement was found in the temporal variations of emission rates and rotational temperatures from March 1-15, 2000 measured at the Almaty and Sierra-Nevada sites. Similar perturbations could also be seen in the ionospheric critical frequency (ΔfoF2) obtained as a difference between current foF2 values and an ionospheric background level.The perturbations observed have been interpreted employing the Met office stratospheric model results. Latitudinal structure of a quasi 5-day wave was identified, for which the first-symmetric-mode amplitude and symmetric behaviour of phase are in good agreement with theoretical prediction. The analysis of the Met office stratospheric data indicate the presence of westward-propagating PW with periods of ∼5 and 10 days during the period of interest. The temporal correlation between planetary scale oscillations observed in the datasets examined (ionospheric, optical and meteorological) suggest dynamical coupling with the stratosphere. A negative disturbance in ΔfoF2 of ∼25% observed 1 day before a sharp increase in the MORTI mesospheric rotational temperature registered on March 10 at Almaty, is also discussed in the context of the possible stratosphere/mesosphere/ionosphere coupling.     

COST 251 recommended instantaneous mapping model of ionospheric characteristics — PLES

Monthly median maps of ionospheric foF2 parameter show considerable discrepancies between the actual measurements and the values detected from the maps. Different instantaneous mapping techniques applied to randomly sparsed measurements give better agreement than monthly median maps. The objective of this paper is to present the PLES instantaneous mapping model for foF2 and M(3000)F2 that has been recommended as the best achievement of the COST 251 European Action. The method combines monthly median maps of ionospheric characteristic and a set of screen points consisting of measurements for a single moment of time as well as single station long-term models.     

利用GPS探测电离层异常中的高斯过程处理方法

平静状态下电离层总电子含量（TEC）随时间的变化通常可以视为平稳随机过程。然而，太阳或地球的突发事件（如太阳耀斑、地磁场的扰动）会引起电离层的扰动，破坏该平稳过程，从而引起其统计参数的变化。依据平稳随机过程——高斯过程的相关性质，利用其自协方差函数和TEC时间系列，构建了独立同标准正态分布的观测样本，并利用X^2假设检验的方法来探测电离层异常现象。此外，还利用了2000年7月14日太阳耀斑期间我国国际IGS跟踪站武汉GPS跟踪站的数据，进行了实例分析。结果表明，该方法可以有效地探测电离层异常现象。     

Jovian magnetosphere-ionosphere current system characterized by diurnal variation of ionospheric conductance

We developed a new numerical model of the Jovian magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling current system in order to investigate the effects of diurnal variation of ionospheric conductance. The conductance is determined by ion chemical processes that include the generation of hydrogen and hydrocarbon ions by solar EUV radiation and auroral electrons precipitation. The model solves the torque equations for magnetospheric plasma accelerated by the radial currents flowing along the magnetospheric equator. The conductance and magnetospheric plasma then change the field-aligned currents (FACs) and the intensity of the electric field projected onto the ionosphere. Because of the positive feedback of the ionospheric conductance on the FAC, the FAC is the maximum on the dayside and minimum just before sunrise. The power transferred from the planetary rotation is mainly consumed in the upper atmosphere on the dayside, while it is used for magnetospheric plasma acceleration in other local time (LT) sectors. Further, our simulations show that the magnetospheric plasma density and mass flux affect the temporal variation in the peak FAC density. The enhancement of the solar EUV flux by a factor of 2.4 increases the FAC density by 30%. The maximum density of the FAC is determined not only by the relationship between the precipitating electron flux and ionospheric conductance, but also by the system inertia, i.e., the inertia of the magnetospheric plasma. A theoretical analysis and numerical simulations reveal that the FAC density is in proportion to the planetary angular velocity on the dayside and to the square of the planetary angular velocity on the nightside. When the radial current at the outer boundary is fixed at values above 30 MA, as assumed in previous model studies, the peak FAC density determined at latitude 73°-74° is larger than the diurnal variable component. This result suggests large effects of this assumed radial current at the outer boundary on the system.     

Monitoring the Dynamics of the Ionosphere–Plasmasphere System by Ground-Based ULF Wave Observations

Cross-spectral analysis of ULF wave measurements recorded at ground magnetometer stations closely spaced in latitude allows accurate determinations of magnetospheric field line resonance (FLR) frequencies. This is a useful tool for remote sensing temporal and spatial variations of the magnetospheric plasma mass density. The spatial configuration of the South European GeoMagnetic Array (SEGMA, 1.56 <  L <  1.89) offers the possibility to perform such studies at low latitudes allowing to monitor the dynamical coupling between the ionosphere and the inner plasmasphere. As an example of this capability we present the results of a cross-correlation analysis between FLR frequencies and solar EUV irradiance (as monitored by the 10.7-cm solar radio flux F10.7) suggesting that changes in the inner plasmasphere density follow the short-term (27-day) variations of the solar irradiance with a time delay of 1–2 days. As an additional example we present the results of a comparative analysis of FLR measurements, ionospheric vertical soundings and vertical TEC measurements during the development of a geomagnetic storm.     

PARTICLE ACCELERATION IN GEOSPACE AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH SOLAR EVENTS

Particle acceleration is a prominent feature of the geomagnetic storm, which is the prime dynamic process in Geospace – the near-Earth space environment. Magnetic storms have their origin in solar events, which are transient disturbances of the solar atmosphere and radiation that propagates as variations of the solar wind fields and particles through interplanetary space to the Earth's orbit. During magnetic storms, ions of both solar wind origin and terrestrial origin are accelerated and form an energetic ring current in the inner magnetosphere. This current has global geomagnetic effects, which have both physical and technical implications. Recently, it has been shown that large magnetic storms, which exhibit an unusually energized ionospheric plasma component, are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This implies a cause/effect chain connecting solar events through CMEs and the solar wind with the acceleration of terrestrial ion populations which eventually constitute the main source of global geomagnetic disturbances. Here we present spacecraft observations related to storm-time particle acceleration and assess the observations within the framework of causes and effects of solar-terrestrial relationships.     

Temporal and spatial distribution of GPS-TEC anomalies prior to the strong earthquakes

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive and harmful natural disasters, especially in recent years, the 2008/5/12 Wenchuan M7.9 earthquake, the 2011/3/11 Tohoku M9.0 earthquake and the 2012/4/11 Sumatra M8.6 earthquake have caused a significant impact to the human life. In this paper, we make a study of the temporal and spatial distribution of the Global Positioning System Total Electron Content (GPS TEC) anomalies prior to the three strong earthquakes by the method of statistical analysis. Our results show that the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are mainly positive anomalies and take the shape of a double-crest structure with a trough near the epicenter. The ionospheric anomalies do not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake, but mainly localize in the near-epicenter region and corresponding ionospheric anomalies are also simultaneously observed in the magnetic conjugate region prior to the three earthquakes. In addition, the amplitude and scale-size of the ionospheric ΔTEC are different with the magnitude of the earthquake, and the horizontal scale-size of the greatest anomalies before the Tohoku M9.0 earthquake is ～30^° in longitude and ～10^° in latitude, with the maximum amplitude of TEC disturbances reaching ～20 TECu relative to the background. The peak of anomaly enhancement usually occurs in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 14:00 and 18:00 local time) which lasts for approximate 2 hours. Possible causes of these anomalies are discussed, and after eliminating the effect of solar activities and magnetic storms it can be concluded that the detected obvious and regular anomalous behavior in TEC within just a few days before the earthquakes is related with the forthcoming earthquakes with high probability.     

Anomalous variation in GPS TEC prior to the 11 April 2012 Sumatra earthquake

On 11 April 2012, a strong earthquake of magnitude Ms8.6 occurred near the west coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia. In this paper, we investigated the morphological characteristics of anomalous variations in Global Positioning System Total Electron Content (GPS TEC) prior to the earthquake by the method of the statistical analysis. It was found the TEC anomaly was firstly decreased, then, it became more enhanced, finally, it decreased, the peak of anomaly enhancement arose from 13:00–17:00 LT on April 5 lasted for ～4 hours and the anomalous ionospheric regions extended to ～40^° in longitude and ～20^° in latitude, its location did not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter, but lies at the north and south of the geomagnetic equator, meanwhile, corresponding ionospheric anomalies are also observed in the magneto conjugate region. Potential causes of these results are discussed,eliminating the ionospheric anomalies that may be caused by solar activities and magnetic storms, it can be concluded that the observed obvious anomalous variation in GPS TEC on April 5 were possibly related to the earthquake.     

Temporal and spatial forecasting of the foF2 values up to twenty four hours in advance

Radio waves of a wide range of frequencies from very low frequency (VLF) to high frequency (HF), (broadly 3 to 30 MHz) can be propagated to great distances via the ionosphere.Since the largest variability occurs in the F-region the objective of this paper is to demonstrate a neural network model with the backpropagation algorithm which is designed to forecast the foF2 values of the highly nonlinear ionosphere up to 24 hours in advance. In other words, the model forecasts all values from 1 to 24 hours ahead.By using foF2 data for three European Ionospheric stations this neural network based model can forecast foF2 values both in time and in space for those three stations. The model seems promising for practical work since the root mean square errors involved are within reasonable limits.