Monitoring of earthquake precursors by multi-parameter stations in Eskisehir region (Turkey)

The objective of this study was to investigate the geochemical and hydrogeological effects of earthquakes on fluids in aquifers, particularly in a seismically active area such as Eskisehir (Turkey) where the Thrace–Eskisehir Fault Zone stretches over the region. The study area is also close to the North Anatolian Fault Zone generating devastating earthquakes such as the ones experienced in 1999, reactivating the Thrace–Eskisehir Fault. In the studied area, Rn and CO₂ gas concentrations, redox potential, electrical conductivity, pH, water level, water temperature, and the climatic parameters were continuously measured in five stations for about a year. Based on the gathered data from the stations, some ambiguous anomalies in geochemical parameters and Rn concentration of groundwater were observed as precursors several days prior to an earthquake. According to the mid-term observations of this study, well-water level changes were found to be a good indicator for seismic estimations in the area, as it comprises naturally filtered anomalies reflecting only the changes due to earthquakes. Also, the results obtained from this study suggest that both the changes in well-water level and gas–water chemistry need to be interpretated together for more accurate estimations. Valid for the studied area, it can be said that shallow earthquakes with epicentral distances of <30 km from the observation stations have more influence on hydrochemical parameters of groundwater and well-water level changes. Although some hydrochemical anomalies were observed in the area, it requires further observations in order to be able to identify them as precursors.     

Scaling laws between seismo-electric/magnetic fields and earthquake magnitude

The mechanisms generating the charges/potentials and abnormal electromagnetic radiation that accompany earthquakes have been discussed based on observational, theoretical and laboratory studies, in particular over the last few decades. We previously conducted stick‐slip tests using precut granite cores with a contact electrode on the sample side, and proposed that surface charges released from charge trapping centres on sheared asperities are a possible source of the above‐mentioned charges or potentials. Here we discuss seismo‐electric and magnetic fields formed by the surface charges, and derive their scaling laws with the earthquake magnitude at a distance. According to our model, detectability of these fields at a point on the ground surface depends strongly on wet/dry condition at a fault zone (sheared asperities).     

Geological causes and geomorphological precursors of the Tsaoling landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

The Tsaoling landslide, one of the largest landslide areas in Taiwan, has been affected by catastrophic events triggered by rain or earthquakes six times since 1862. These landslides, including that caused by the 1999 earthquake, have essentially not been reactivated old slides, but were sequential new ones that developed upslope, retrogressively. The landslide area is underlain by Pliocene sandstone and shale to form a dip slope with a bedding plane, dipping uniformly at 14°. The slip surface of the 1999 landslide was smooth and planar, parallel to the bedding plane with a slightly stepped profile; it formed within thinly alternated beds of fine sandstone and shale with ripple lamination or in a shale bed. The shale is weathered by slaking and probably by sulfuric acid, which is inferred to be one of the major causes of the intermittent retrogressive development of the landslides. The weathering was likely accelerated by the removal of overlying beds during earlier landslides in 1941 and 1942. The top margin of the 1999 landslide, in plan view, coincided with a V-shaped scarplet, which can be clearly recognized on aerial photographs taken before the landslide. This geomorphological feature indicates that this landslide had already moved slightly before its 1999 occurrence, providing precursory evidences.     

利用纵波AVA进行裂缝储层和流体识别

裂缝储层的地震响应表现为各向异性,描述裂缝物理特征参数正柔量和剪切柔量是裂缝密度函数。含气裂缝和含油、水裂缝的剪切柔量相等;而含气时,正柔量不为零,含油、水时,正柔量为零。横波分裂能反演裂缝密度和方位,但是不能指示裂缝中流体类型。近年来,纵波速度和振幅的方位特征检测裂缝得到了广泛应用,这里根据线性滑动模型建立了描述裂缝物理特性参数和各向异性参数之间的关系,分析了流体类型识别的可行性,并利用多方位角纵波AVO反演各向异性参数和柔量参数,以此来预测裂缝中流体类型。     

Peculiarities of electric and magnetic tipper variations caused by meteorological disturbances in the atmosphere

We present the results of the analysis of experimental data of synchronous observations of variations in the electric and magnetic fields as well as acoustic oscillations in the surface zone of the Earth compared with variations in the meteorological parameters. We demonstrate the synchronous variations in these fields and atmospheric parameters. We revealed, for the first time, not only synchronous but also advancing manifestations of the geomagnetic field perturbations. We introduce a new parameter: the inverse magnetic tipper whose variations during atmospheric perturbations are clearly manifested compared with the variations in the magnetic tipper.     

Correlating recurrent radon precursors with local earthquake magnitude and crust strain near the Chihshang fault of eastern Taiwan

The active Chihshang fault in the southern segment of longitudinal valley of eastern Taiwan is part of the suture boundary between the Eurasia plate and the Philippine Sea plate. Radon anomalies in groundwater were recorded prior to three major earthquakes—(1) 2003 M _w = 6.8 Chengkung, (2) 2006 M _w = 6.1 Taitung, and (3) 2008 M _w = 5.4 Antung. The epicenters were located 24, 52, and 13 km, respectively, from the radon-monitoring well (D1) in the Antung hot spring about 3 km southeast of the Chihshang fault. Prior to the three major earthquakes, radon decreased from background levels of 787 ± 42, 762 ± 57, and 700 ± 57 pCi/L to minima of 326 ± 9, 371 ± 9, and 480 ± 43 pCi/L, respectively. Based on the radon volatilization model and the rock dilatancy model, this paper correlates the observed radon minima with local earthquake magnitude and crust strain. The correlation is a useful means of forecasting local disastrous earthquakes in the southern segment of longitudinal valley of eastern Taiwan.     

Structural and magnetic fabric studies of recess structures in the western Himalaya: Implications for 1905 Kangra earthquake

Kinematic information from deformation structures and magnetic fabrics are used to infer recent tectonics around Kangra and Dehradun recesses, western Himalaya. Three types of magnetic fabrics (Type I & II, III, and IV) are identified based on the angle between K3 axis and bedding pole. It was observed that Kangra recess shows more mature fabric type IV as compared to Dehradun recess, where orientation of K3 axes and tectonic fabric reveals dominance of superposed deformation. In the vicinity of Dehradun recess, normal faults occur in un-indurated Quaternary fan deposits confirming their recent formation. The observations are in conformity with earlier studies that during the 1905 Kangra earthquake, the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) (or one of its subsidiary thrusts) near Kangra showed thrusting whereas the MBT near Dehradun underwent either normal faulting or post seismic adjustments characteristic of normal faulting. The thrusting could be a result of subsurface processes whereas the normal faulting was a result of prevailing surface strains.     

Monitoring of movement of potential earthquake areas with precise distance measuring and leveling systems

Whether monitoring crustal movements in localized volcanic areas along known fault lines, or over large crustal-movement areas, the geodesist has been restricted by the measurement accuracy of the instruments used, the accumulation of errors, the lack of reliable air refraction information and the problem of finding proper measurement procedures and mathematical solutions to assure that the inherent errors of the measurement-mathematical procedures do not exceed any conceivable ground movement.

Recent technological advances have placed new instruments and systems at the disposal of the geodesist, so that is now feasible to measure and analyze these micro and macro crustal movements within the accuracies required.

The paper describes three such systems:

1. (1) The Wild Electronic Theodolite T-2000 with a highly precise distance-measurement instrument, the DI-4S, together with a data collector, the GRE-3, which are connected to a computer and a plotter to measure and analyze both micro and macro crustal movements.

2. (2) The Wild NAK-2 level with an antimagnetic compensator which increases the accuracy in the height/velocity monitoring of vertical crustal movements by virtual elimination of the influence of natural or man-made magnetic fields on the automatic level.

3. (3) The use of analytical photogrammetry employing both terrestrial and aerial photography to monitor crustal movements.

By taking advantage of these new instruments and systems, the scientists capability to provide crustal movement data for use in the analysis and prediction of micro or macro crustal movement is greatly enhanced.     

Ionospheric disturbances with the time of occurrence, magnitude and location of the earthquake (M6.5) near the Indian subcontinent

The present study purports the analysis of total electron content (TEC, which is one of the major ionosphere anomalies during the earthquake), sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) during the earthquake event recorded on 10 March 2013 (M = 6.5). Global assimilative ionosphere modelled output TEC values have been used for this present study; the clear signature of TEC during the recorded earthquake has been noticed (i.e. increase in TEC 60–70 TECU during the event). The correlation between the magnitude and location of earthquake with TEC is around 0.9, and the least correlation between SST and OLR is due to concerned atmospheric effects; we tried to study the variations of SST and OLR prior during and after the event from Kalpana satellite image products archived by IMD.     

Analysis of the structure of dissolved marine humic substances and their phytoplanktonic precursors by H and C nuclear magnetic resonance

The structure of dissolved marine humic material and the intracellular and extracellular material from the diatom Phacodactylum tricornutum has been investigated by ¹H- and ¹³C-NMR spectroscopy. The results show that carbohydrates, highly-branched alkyl chains and to a lesser extent aromatic materials are important contributors to the structure of marine humic substances and aqueous extracts of P. tricornutum. There is a close relationship between the chemical structure of P. tricornutum exudate and dissolved marine humic material.     

Comparison between cell-centered and nodal-based discretization schemes for linear elasticity

In this paper, we study newly developed methods for linear elasticity on polyhedral meshes. Our emphasis is on applications of the methods to geological models. Models of subsurface, and in particular sedimentary rocks, naturally lead to general polyhedral meshes. Numerical methods which can directly handle such representation are highly desirable. Many of the numerical challenges in simulation of subsurface applications come from the lack of robustness and accuracy of numerical methods in the case of highly distorted grids. In this paper, we investigate and compare the Multi-Point Stress Approximation (MPSA) and the Virtual Element Method (VEM) with regard to grid features that are frequently seen in geological models and likely to lead to a lack of accuracy of the methods. In particular, we look at how the methods perform near the incompressible limit. This work shows that both methods are promising for flexible modeling of subsurface mechanics.     

龙门山汶川-茂县断裂带的岩石磁学特征及其地震作用的指示意义

汶川-茂县断裂带是龙门山后山断裂,是松潘-甘孜褶皱带与龙门山断裂带之间的边界断层,然而,在2008年M_W 7.9级汶川大地震中并没有发生破裂。同时,汶川-茂县断裂带在汶川地震之前是否发生过历史大地震仍缺少确切的证据。这不仅制约着汶川地震发生机制的认识,而且还影响对龙门山形成演化过程的理解。因此,确定汶川-茂县断裂带的断裂作用环境对于认识龙门山断裂带的地震发生机制至关重要。断裂岩的岩石磁学可以有效地揭示断裂带的物理和化学环境。本文以汶川-茂县断裂带北部地表露头的断裂岩为研究对象,通过岩石磁学研究,并结合显微结构观察和地球化学分析,探讨汶川-茂县断裂带的断裂作用环境。断层泥和断层角砾岩最大磁化率值分别约为围岩的30倍和15倍,具有高磁化率值特征。断层泥的主要载磁矿物为磁铁矿、磁黄铁矿、针铁矿;断层角砾岩的主要载磁矿物为磁黄铁矿、针铁矿。断层泥的高磁化率值异常的主要原因是围岩中的含铁矿物在地震摩擦热和流体作用下新生成磁铁矿和磁黄铁矿。断层角砾岩的高磁化率值异常是围岩在含有大量硫元素的低温热液流体作用下生成了磁黄铁矿。大量针铁矿指示了震后期还原性的低温热液流体作用。断裂岩的高磁化率值异常和新生磁铁矿指示了汶川-茂县断裂带曾经发生了摩擦热温度>500℃的大地震活动,发震和震后期均为还原性的硫元素含量较高的低温热液流体环境。

     

The effect and precursors of the earthquake of August 28, 2008, in the vertical component of the electric field in Lake Baikal

Doklady Earth Sciences -     

Seismic and electrical precursors to the 17-1-1983, M7 kefallinia earthquake,Greece: Signatures of a SOC system

Prior to the 17-1-1983 event, the seismicity of the broader area of the Ionian islands and western Greece exhibited several phenomena interpretable in the context of a self-organised critical system with long range interactions. The regional seismic energy release exhibited power law acceleration towards the time of rupture, the numerical modelling of which yields a time-to-failure of 1983.1 ± 0.2. Time dependent changes were also observed in the b-values, assuming the form of monotonic increase that promptly reversed after the earthquake. This indicates the induction of instability to the region due to the earthquake preparation process, which is consistent with the critical point earthquake model. The critical point model predicts that failure is a co-operative effect occurring at small scale, and cascading from the microscopic to the macroscopic scale. This involves a crack propagation avalanche at the terminal phase of the seismic cycle, the time function of which has been modelled with a limited class of characteristic transient bay-like shapes, featuring a corner frequency and inverse power energy distribution law. Electrification processes due to crack propagation may generate an electrical precursor with similar characteristics. Such a potential precursor has been observed independently on 15-1-1983, approx. 120km from the epicentre. In consequence of our observations, we discuss a model relating seismicity and electrical precursors.     

西藏墨脱公路工程地质灾害遥感勘察与解译方法

在地处南迦巴瓦峰地区的西藏墨脱公路工程地质遥感勘察中，以Landsat-7 ETM＋卫星影像为信息源，运用彩色合成、数据融合、主成分分析等数字图像处理方法，结合基于地学知识的图像识别及解译技术，对墨脱公路沿线的泥石流、滑坡、活动断裂等地质灾害进行全面解译分析及专题制图，查明了公路方案线区域内活动断裂发育特征。其中，帕隆藏布断裂带、岗日嘎布断裂带等对错拉隧道将产生较大影响。大型滑坡主要有5个，沿南迦巴瓦峰南坡的雅鲁藏布江河谷两岸发育，分布在仓孔、墨脱及洒拉库等地。泥石流、崩塌广泛发育，主要分布在雅鲁藏布江河谷、帕隆藏布河谷沿线的派、拉格-汗密、岗乡-波密一带。勘察及解译结果为墨脱公路工程线路方案选择、工程地质条件评价提供了充分的科学依据。     

地铁隧道下穿小河和桥梁的施工方案研究

综合工程经验,对北京地铁5号线过河过桥隧道施工可能采用的4种超前支护方案即水平旋喷桩、全断面深孔注浆、长管棚、加密小导管注浆并辅以临时仰拱进行初步分析,认为加密小导管方案在施工造价、掘进速度和施工影响方面具有优势。采用三维数值模拟方法对长管棚方案和加密小导管方案进行进一步评价并择优。数值模拟结果显示,在不计管棚施工对地层提前扰动的情况下,长管棚方案与加密小导管方案对桥台、桥墩以及小月河河底的影响是相当的,可以认为,加密小导管方案将优于长管棚方案;长管棚、小导管和锁脚小导管承受弯矩较小,锁脚小导管以及隧道拱部的小导管承受轴压力,边墙的小导管既承受轴压力又承受轴拉力,长管棚主要承受轴拉力。     

Recent hydrological and geochemical research for earthquake prediction in Japan

Hydrological and geochemical studies for earthquake prediction in Japan during the last two decades are reviewed. Following the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake, the central approach to research on earthquake prediction was modified. Instead of precursory detection, emphasis was placed on understanding the entire earthquake cycle. Moreover, the prediction program for the anticipated Tokai earthquake was revised in 2003 to include the detection of preslip-related precursors. These changes included the promotion of the following hydrological and geochemical studies for earthquake prediction: (1) development and/or application of statistical methods to extract small fluctuations from hydrological/geochemical data, (2) evaluation of the detectability of preslip-related anomalies in terms of groundwater levels in wells in the Tokai region, and (3) establishment of a new groundwater and borehole strain observation network for Nankai and Tonankai earthquake prediction research. The following basic geochemical studies were carried out: (1) development of a new monitoring system using a quadrupole mass spectrometer, (2) experimental studies on hydrogen generation by the grinding of rock and crystal powders, (3) comprehensive monitoring of groundwater gas and precise crustal deformation, and (4) mantle-derivative helium observation to compare with seismic velocity structures and the distribution of non-volcanic tremors. Moreover, hydrological and geochemical investigations related to the evolution of fault zones were introduced within the framework of fault zone drilling projects.     

我国地震地下流体观测的现状和趋势

在过去的30多年中,我国地震地下流体观测经历了"创建阶段—发展阶段—提高阶段"到目前开始的"全面现代化阶段",形成了国家级基本台(网)、省级区域台(网)与县市级地方台(网)三类台(网),记录到了具有丰富科学内涵的海量数据,为相关的灾害、环境、资源问题的分析和研究提供了重要的科学依据。"九五"期间,完成了对全国114个台站以水位、水温(地热)、氡(Rn)与汞(Hg)观测为主的数字化改造。"十五"和以后更长一段时间内,计划大规模推广地下流体数字化观测技术,建设三个"前兆台阵",初步建立流动观测系统,完善与健全学科台网中心,建立学科观测技术质检中心,并就地震地下流体观测中的一些基本科学技术问题进行研究,使我国地震地下流体观测沿着"台网(站)布设科学化,测项配套合理化,监测技术系统自动化和现代化,观测规范化和观测数据质量评价定量化"的方向稳步发展。