Thermal infrared anomalies as a precursor of strong earthquakes in the distant future

Satellite thermal infrared images contain valuable earthquake precursor information. Past studies concluded that such information appeared only a few days or dozens of days before an earthquake would occur. In our study, though, we observed that the time intervals between the thermal infrared precursor and an earthquake??s occurrence can be up to 10?years. An infrared image can also synchronously indicate the locations of additional future earthquakes with different epicenters within a region. The shape, area, intensity, and movement of thermal infrared anomaly areas are a combination of all the future strong earthquakes within a region. These distant future earthquakes are generally located near the edges, endpoints, or corners of the main structure, fine structures or periphery structures of a thermal infrared anomaly area and play a role in confining the anomaly area. There have not been any exceptions among the strong earthquakes we analyzed, which have included the 2011 Japan M _w 9 event, the 2010 Yushu M _S 7.1 event, the 2008 Wenchuan M _S 8 event, and many other strong events following the 2004 Sumatra M _S 9 event. Surprisingly, some of the earthquakes can outline an area of elevated temperature observed many months ago. If we can roughly locate these potential epicenters through the analysis of thermal infrared images and combining the analysis with other information, and then dynamically monitor them, it may be easier to observe the precursor of an earthquake and predict its occurrence.     

Implications of structural segmentation during earthquakes: the 1995 Egion earthquake, Gulf of Corinth, Greece

The Egion earthquake which occurred in the Gulf of Corinth, central Greece (Ms = 6.2) on 15 June 1995 was caused by normal slip on the north-dipping and WNW-trending Egion fault. The Egion fault ruptured at depth during the Egion mainshock and probably re-ruptured at shallow level during the largest aftershock. The surface trace of the Egion fault has a segmented geometry. Linkage between three segments, which show long-term deformation differences as well as coseismic segmentation, enabled all segments to be incorporated in an earthquake segment. The surface ruptures continued to grow after the coseismic motion; the afterslip throw of the fault 10 weeks after the main event was equal to the 3 cm value for maximum coseismic slip. This afterslip was accompanied by uplift of the footwall block and a warp-like hangingwall subsidence (folding). This pattern of deformation was associated with more complex deformation at the western end of the earthquake segment. Here, afterslip was accompanied by general subsidence of the whole area (between 25th June and 30th July), followed by uplift of the whole area without afterslip (between 30th July and 2nd September). The afterslip-rate averaged over the 73 day period after the main event varied from 0.48 mm day⁻¹ along the central part of the earthquake segment to 0.16 mm day⁻¹ at the eastern end of the earthquake segment.     

Bottom sediments in a polluted marine environment,upper Saronikos Gulf,Greece

The domestic and industrial waste water from most of the greater Athens, Greece area is discharged into shallow water at the upper end of the semi-enclosed Saronikos Gulf. The lack of circulation and excess organic matter has led to the formation of a rapidly expanding sludge field. Black anoxic sediments high in organic carbon now cover almost 9 sq km of sea floor and contain high concentrations of heavy metals. Maximum increases above background values range from 22× for mercury, 1500× for arsenic, 1200× for chromium, to 3000× for zinc. The principal sources of metals are 1) a fertilizer factory, 2) the Athens sewer outfall, and 3) the industries in eastern Elefsis Bay.     

Tectonic geomorphology of the easternmost extension of the Gulf of Corinth (Beotia, Central Greece)

The easternmost sector of the Gulf of Corinth, the Beotia area in Central Greece, is an area with active normal faults located between the two major rift structures of Central Greece, the Gulf of Corinth and the North Gulf of Evia. These active normal faults include WNW to E–W and NE to ENE-trending faults affect the landscape and generate basin and range topography within the Beotia. We study four normal fault zones and drainage basin geometry in the easternmost sector of the Gulf of Corinth to document the impact of active tectonics on the landscape evolution. Fault and drainage geometry are investigated based on detailed field mapping and high-resolution digital elevation models. Tectonic geomorphic analysis using several parameters of active tectonics provides information concerning the relative tectonic activity and fault growth. In order to detect areas of lateral stream migration that could indicate recent tectonic activity, the Transverse Topographic Symmetry Factor and the Asymmetry Factor are used to analyse drainage basin geometry in six large drainage basins and a drainage domain covering the study area. Our results show that vertical motions and tilting associated with normal faulting influence the drainage geometry and its development. Values of stream-gradient indices (S_L) are relatively high close to the fault traces of the studied fault zones suggesting high activity. Mountain-front sinuosity (S_mf) mean values along the fault zones ranges from 1.08 to 1.26. Valley floor width to valley height ratios (V_f) mean values along the studied fault zones range between 0.5 and 1.6. Drainage basin shape (B_S) mean values along the fault zones range from 1.08 to 3.54. All these geomorphic parameters and geomorphological data suggest that the analyzed normal faults are highly active. Lateral fault growth was likely produced by primarily eastward propagation, with the WNW to E–W trending faults being the relatively more active structures.     

Tsunami Hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: Strong Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Corinth Gulf,Central Greece

The exhaustive review of a long number of historical documents, books, reports,scientific and press reports, instrumental recordings, previous catalogues andpersonal field observations, concluded with the production of a completely newtsunami catalogue for the Corinth Gulf, Central Greece, which is arranged in theformat adopted by the GITEC group for the new European Tsunami Catalogue.The catalogue is presented in three sections: the Quick-Look Table, the Quick-LookAccounts File and the References File. An Appendix explains why some particularsea disturbances were not included in the new catalogue although they were consideredas tsunami events by previous researchers. Past history clearly shows that most tsunamis in the Corinth Gulf are produced by strong (Ms 5.5) offshore and near shore earthquakes. However, seismic or aseismic sliding of coastal and submarine sediments is a significant factor in tsunamigenesis. Calculations based on the random model indicate that the probability for at least one tsunami occurrence of intensity TI 2 TI 3 and TI 4 within 50 years equals 0.851, 0.747 and 0.606, respectively. From the intensity–frequency relationship the mean return period of tsunami intensity TI 2, TI 3 and TI 4 equals to 16, 40 and 103 years. The tsunami geographicaldistribution, however, is non-random with a clear trend for the tsunamigenesis todecrease drastically from west to east within the Corinth Gulf. In fact, the probabilityfor a strong earthquake to cause a tsunami of TI 3 in the Corinth Gulf consideredas an entity is 0.35, while in the western part of the Gulf it goes up to 0.55. Therefore, the rapid and accurate determination of the earthquake focal parameters is of great importance in an algorithm of a real-time tsunami warning system in the Corinth Gulf.     

High-resolution, Digital Mapping of the Seismic Hazard within the Gulf of Evia Rift, Central Greece Using Normal Fault Segments as Line Sources

Seismic hazard within juvenile rift systems ismodelled by a semi-statistical procedure based onfault segmentation theory. Fault segmentationprovides the physical basis for strong earthquakerecurrence in regions undergoing extension, andtherefore, it may control the position and size of rupture areas for future events. The computercode FRISK (McGuire, 1978) is applied to calculateprobabilistic estimates of ground motion parameters. Six normal fault segments, on average 25 km long, aremodelled as the earthquake sources within the Gulf ofEvia Rift, Central Greece. The position and length ofsegments have been determined from image processing ofremotely-sensed data and field work. FRISK output isdirected to a Geographical Information System (GIS)and a series of high-resolution (0.1 by 0.1 of adegree) digital maps are produced. The results for100 year acceleration (63% not to be exceeded) showa 50% increase in the seismic hazard from previouslyestimated magnitudes. Areas of maximum hazard (over0.4 g) are located on the south coast of the Gulf ofEvia between the towns of Kammena Vourla and Arkitsa. The obtained shape of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)contours is slightly elliptical with the long axis ofthe ellipse trending E-W, and symmetric, with respectto the rift axis.     

Energy flux of strong earthquakes

In this paper, the energy flux of strong earthquakes at a station is determined considering the progressive rupture of a fault as the source of earthquakes. It is found that the motion of the source and the relative position of the station with respect to the fault are important in determining the energy density, the energy flux and the duration of the earthquake at this station. There is a “sphere of influence” beyond which the source may be assumed to be stationary. The analytical results are in good agreement with those of the 5 strong motion records obtained very near the fault from the Parkfield event of 27th June, 1966. 21 strong motion records are studied for energy densities at the stations from which a magnitude-energy relationship is obtained which agrees closely with other existing relationships.     

Quaternary tectonics in the Gulf of Patras, western Greece

Air gun seismic and 3.5 kHz profiling data from the Gulf of Patras, western Greece, show that it is occupied by a small asymmetric graben with several geometric similarities to the larger-scale graben in the Gulf of Corinth to the east. Major listric faulting characterizes the southern flank of the graben whilst the northern flank represents an associated rollover structure affected by antithetic and synthetic faulting. The present phase of subsidence is of Holocene age, but buried growth faults suggest earlier subsidence in the Gulf. The average rate of subsidence through the Holocene is estimated to be 10 mm/year.The Gulf of Patras graben, together with the Gulf of Corinth graben and the Megara basin, represent a continuous system of WNW-ESE trending grabens in a broad zone of intense seismicity within the Aegean domain. Individual grabens are offset and are interconnected by NE-SW trending fault systems.     

Biogeographical affinities of marine algae in the Saronikos Gulf,Athens, Greece

Hard substrate photophilius marine algae species of the Saronikos Gulf amount to 197. Of them, 42 were Atlantic subtropical, 36 Atlantic tropical, and just 19 Atlantic boreal and 11 Boreal. The R/P ratio was 3.22. This shows the Atlantic subtropical character of the marine flora.     

Development of near-surface dilatancy zones as a possible cause for seismic emission anomalies before strong earthquakes

Based on mathematical modeling, the paper presents the estimation of the length of dilatancy zones developed near a free surface during the preparation of earthquakes. An algorithm for the calculation of dilatancy zones has been developed and applied for numerical modeling. Estimated examples of the development of near-surface dilatancy zones before the Kamchatka earthquakes with a magnitude M = 6.7–7.8 are given. The results of the numerical experiments under the accepted assumptions solve the problem of the long-range influence of a future earthquake source on a limited remote zone of microseismic information gathering: the model admits the development of near-surface dilatancy zones in the vicinity of a station recording seismic noise that can trigger forerunner anomalies.     

Source parameters of some recent earthquakes in the Gulf of Aqaba, Egypt

Gulf of Aqaba is recognized as an active seismic zone where many destructive earthquakes have occurred. The estimation of source parameters and coda Q attenuation are the main target of this work. Fifty digital seismic events in eight short-period seismic stations with magnitude 2.5–5.2 are used. Most of these events occurred at hypocentral depths in the range of 7–20 km, indicating that the activity was restricted in the upper crust. Seismic moment, M _o, source radius, r, and stress drop, Δσ, are estimated from P- and S-wave spectra using the Brune’s seismic source model. The average seismic moment generated by the whole sequence of events was estimated to be 4.6E?+?22 dyne/cm. The earthquakes with higher stress drop occur at 10-km depth. The scaling relation between the seismic moment and the stress drop indicates a tendency of increasing seismic moment with stress drop. The seismic moment increases with increasing the source radius. Coda waves are sensitive to changes in the subsurface due to the wide scattering effects generating these waves. Single scattering model of local earthquakes is used to the coda Q calculation. The coda with lapse times 10, 20, and 30 s at six central frequencies 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 Hz are calculated. The Q _c values are frequency dependent in the range 1–25 Hz, and are approximated by a least squares fit to the power law [ $ {Q_c}(f) = {Q_o}{(f/{f_o})^\eta } $ ]. The average of Q _c values increases from 53?±?10 at 1.5 Hz to 700?±?120 at 24 Hz. The average of Q _o values ranges from 13?±?1 at 1.5 Hz to 39?±?4 at 24 Hz. The frequency exponent parameter η ranges between 1.3?±?0.008 and 0.9?±?0.001.     

On generation conditions of strong earthquakes in southern Baikal

In this paper the features of seismic process in the southern depression of Lake Baikal are considered. By the data on focal mechanisms of the earthquakes of February 25, 1999 (M _w = 6.0), and August 27, 2008 (M _w = 6.3), as well as based on configuration of their aftershock fields, it is determined that foci of strong seismic events in southern Baikal are controlled by the greatest structural elements of sublatitudinal and submeridional strikes. It has been shown that a substantial role in the formation of focal zones is played by low-scale destruction of the Earth’s crust, revealed by geological-geophysical data and proved by clustering of seismic shocks. New data on the August 27, 2008, earthquake have proved the high level of seismic danger of this part of the Baikal Rift Zone and allowed us to determine generation conditions of strong earthquakes more precisely.     

Recurrence of strong earthquakes in the active Hovd Fault Zone, Mongolian Altay

A geological, geomorphic, and paleoseismological study of paleoseismodislocation systems has been carried out. Numerous indications of prehistoric strong earthquakes expressed in sediments deposited in the fault-line region due to the formation of transient barrier lakes were revealed in the active Hovd Fault Zone on the eastern slope of the Mongolian Altay during a paleoseismological study of young near-surface sediments in trenches and dug pits. The paleosoils buried by these sediments were radiocarbon-dated. It has been established that the strongest earthquakes with magnitudes of ～8, which took place here 7200, 6600, 1500, and later than 700 years ago, substantially changed the topography in the epicentral zone. By analogy with the results of paleoseismological investigations performed in the Gorny Altay and the western Mongolian Altay, the data obtained shed light on the recurrence of the strongest seismic events in the Great Altay.     

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in Greece

The maximum expected ground motion in Greece is estimated for shallow earthquakes using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). In order to accomplish this analysis the input data include an homogeneous catalogue of earthquakes for the period 426 BC–2003, a seismogenic source model with representative focal mechanisms and a set of velocity models. Because of the discrete character of the earthquake catalogue and of errors in location of single seismic events, a smoothing algorithm is applied to the catalogue of the main shocks to get a spatially smoothed distribution of magnitude. Based on the selected input parameters synthetic seismograms for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz are computed on a grid of 0.2° × 0.2°. The resultant horizontal components for displacement, velocity, acceleration and DGA (Design Ground Acceleration) are mapped. The maps which depict these results cannot be compared with previously published maps based on probabilistic methodologies as the latter were compiled for a mean return period of 476 years. Therefore, in order to validate our deterministic analysis, the final results are compared with PGA estimated from the maximum observed macroseismic intensity in Greece during the period 426 BC–2003.Since the results are obtained for point sources, with the frequency content scaled with moment magnitude, some sensitivity tests are performed to assess the influence of the finite extent of fault related to large events. Sensitivity tests are also performed to investigate the changes in the peak ground motion quantities when varying the crustal velocity models in some seismogenic areas. The ratios and the relative differences between the results obtained using different models are mapped and their mean value computed. The results highlight the importance in the deterministic approach of using good and reliable velocity models.     

Relocation processing of selected earthquakes in the Gulf of Aqaba region

Earthquakes in the Gulf of Aqaba were compiled from the Jordan Seismological Observatory bulletins, Saudi Arabia (SNSN, King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology), and Egypt (National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Helwan) sources and were relocated after reexamining the P and S arrival times, testing the efficiency of stations used to determine the location of Aqaba events, calculating the average value of V _p/V _s, and choosing the best crustal model for the study area. The earthquake epicenters are distributed along the eastern side of the Gulf of Aqaba.     

电磁辐射对台湾强震的反应

本文通过对 1 999年 9月 2 1日台湾南投 7 6级强震前电磁辐射变化特征的分析 ,进一步探讨了电磁辐射在短临预报中的作用 ,同时给出了初步判断震中位置的方法     

A palaeoseismological and geoarchaeological investigation of the Eliki fault,Gulf of Corinth,Greece

Palaeoseismological and morphotectonic analyses enable us to define a 400-m-wide actively deformed zone associated with the active Eliki normal fault, central Greece, bounded on the south by a second-order fault and on the north by a composite and prominent fault scarp. This scarp is further analysed by trenching. Based on colluvium stratigraphy, displacement of distinct horizons and deposition of sedimentary layers, three faulting events have been identified along four fault strands affecting unconsolidated sediments in the trench. The two younger events, with throws of 0.93 and 1.37 m, respectively, the third event, with a throw of 0.44 m, and the penultimate 373 BC event suggest a variable seismic history.The entire alluvial plain of the Kerynitis and Vouraikos rivers, which cross the Eliki fault, has subsided at a rate of 1.4 mm/year, resulting in the burial of the Late Hellenistic–Roman occupation horizons under 3 m of fluvial and colluvial sediments in places.Extension in the broader area is accommodated by the seismically active Eliki and Egion faults. Structural and palaeoseismological analysis of those two faults indicates that they accommodate 1.5 mm/year, or about 10% of the geodetically estimated extension of up to 13 mm/year.