Relationship between the north–south asymmetry of sunspot formation and the amplitude of 11-year solar activity cycles

A relationship between the north–south asymmetry of sunspot formation and the amplitude of 11-year cycles has been established from the RGO/USAF/NOAA data on sunspots. It is shown that the higher the solar cycle amplitude, the smaller the absolute value of the north–south asymmetry. The revealed pattern has been investigated in a numerical dynamo model with irregular variations of the alpha-effect.     

The height stratification of solar magnetic fields in cycles 21–23

The radial component of the solar magnetic field, Br, was calculated in the potential approximation in the height range from 1 to 2.5 solar radii, Ro. According to these data, synoptic maps of the magnetic field for solar cycles 21–23 were constructed. For each 10-degree latitudinal zone, the proportion of its area, S _+field, that was occupied by the “+” field in each rotation was found. In the entire latitudinal zone, the radial component of the field is assumed to be positive if S_+field ≥ 80% and negative if S _+field ≤ 20%. The field proved to be virtually unipolar at the level of the photosphere (R = Ro) during most of the cycle, from the poles to the north and south latitude ≈60°. In the vicinity of minimums between cycles 21 and 22, as well as cycles 22 and 23, for a few rotations of the Sun, the field was almost unipolar within the range of latitudes (?40°)-90°. At R = 2.5 Ro, for most of each cycle, the field was unipolar in the range of latitudes (?20°-(-90°)) and (20°–90°). According to our interpretation, the shift of the polar-field boundary to the equator with height reflects superradial expansion of open magnetic flux tubes from the polar coronal holes. It was found that the reversal of the polar fields began with 1–2 rotations and ended from 2 to 14 solar rotations earlier at great heights than at the surface of the Sun. This indicates that the reversal of the large-scale field occurs first and then that of the small-scale one. In the study of the sectoral structure of the magnetic field at different heights it was found that the boundaries that rotate with a period of less than the Carrington revolution extend to greater heights than the boundaries with a Carrington or longer period. We assume that the boundaries of the first type are formed by the large-scale structures of the magnetic field and the boundaries of the second type are determined by the active regions.     

Statistical study of the north–south asymmetry of the solar differential rotation based on various solar structures during 1966–1985

The time variation and latitude dependence of the solar rotation are found using observational data on Hα filaments and compact magnetic features with different polarities during solar activity cycles 20 and 21 (1966–1985). Statistical analysis of the observational data shows that there is a north–south asymmetry in the rotation, both for the Hα filaments and for compact magnetic features (structures) with negative and positive polarities. The N-S asymmetry in the differential rotation of the Hα filaments and the compact magnetic features with both polarities shows up quite distinctly in solar activity cycles 20 and 21, but the asymmetry for the compact magnetic features with positive polarity is comparatively lower in cycle 21. The confidence level is lower the compact magnetic features with positive polarity than for the compact magnetic features with negative polarity.     

North–south asymmetry of different solar activity features during solar cycle 23

A study on north–south (N–S) asymmetry of different solar activity features (DSAF) such as solar proton events, solar active prominences [total, low (?40°) and high (?50°) latitudes], Hα flare indices, soft X-ray flares, monthly mean sunspot areas and monthly mean sunspot numbers carried out from May 1996 to October 2008. Study shows a southern dominance of DSAF during this period. During the rising phase of the cycle 23 the number of DSAF approximately equals on both, the northern and the southern hemispheres. But these activities tend to shift from northern to southern hemisphere during the period 1998–1999. The statistical significance of the asymmetry time series using a χ²-test of goodness of fit indicates that in most of the cases the asymmetry is highly significant, meaning thereby that the asymmetry is a real feature in the N–S distribution of DSAF.     

Temporal variation of solar flare index during solar cycles 21–24

The present investigation attempts to quantify the temporal variation of Solar Flare Index(SFI)with other activity indices during solar cycles 21-24 by using different techniques such as linear regression,correlation,cross-correlation with phase lag-lead,etc.Different Solar Activity Indices(SAI)considered in this present study are Sunspot Number(SSN),10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux(F10.7),Coronal Index(CI)and MgⅡCore-to-Wing Ratio(MgⅡ).The maximum cycle amplitude of SFI and considered SAI has a decreasing trend from solar cycle 22,and cycle 24 is the weakest solar cycle among all other cycles.The SFI with SSN,F10.7,CI and MgⅡshows hysteresis during all cycles except for solar cycle 22 where both paths for ascending and descending phases are intercepting each other,thereby representing a phase reversal.A positive hysteresis circulation exists between SFI and considered SAI during solar cycles 22 and 23,whereas a negative circulation exists in cycles 21 and 24.SFI has a high positive correlation with coefficient values of 0.92,0.94,0.84 and 0.81 for SSN,F10.7,CI and MgⅡrespectively.According to crosscorrelation analysis,SFI has a phase lag with considered SAI during an odd-number solar cycle(solar cycles21 and 23)but no phase lag/lead during an even-numbered solar cycle(solar cycles 22 and 24).However,the entire smoothed monthly average SFI data indicate an in-phase relationship with SSN,F10.7 and MgⅡ,and a one-month phase lag with CI.The presence of those above characteristics strongly confirms the outcomes of different research work with various solar indices and the highest correlation exists between SFI and SSN as well as F10.7 which establishes that SFI may be considered as one of the prime activity indices to interpret the characteristics of the Sun’s active region as well as for more accurate short-range or long-range forecasting of solar events.     

On the cyclicity of solar magnetic fields during cycles 21–23

The cyclicity of weak local and strong large-scale components of the low-latitude solar magnetic field during the last three cycles of solar activity is studied using the average monthly values for the total area of sunspots and general magnetic field of the sun as a star. A local decrease in the value of magnetic flux is found for both components of the magnetic field in the phase of growing solar activity. This decrease coincides in time with the intervals of monopolarity for the polar magnetic field of the sun.     

Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays in solar cycles 19–23

The previously developed basic theory of the heliospheric modulation of high-energy cosmic rays is generalized to lower energies. Comparison of the theory with the results of long-term observations of cosmic rays in the stratosphere carried out by the group from the Lebedev Institute of Physics inMoscow andMurmansk shows satisfactory agreement. The cosmic rays are shown to behave quite differently when even and odd solar cycles alternate. Possible causes of the anomalously high cosmic-ray intensity recorded during the last solar activity minimum are discussed.     

N–S asymmetry in the differential rotation of the sun and its variation with the solar activity cycles

Peculiarities in the characteristics of the solar differential rotation are investigated using hydrogen filaments as tracers. The existence of North–South (N–S) asymmetry in hydrogen filaments rotation is confirmed statistically. The connection of asymmetry with the solar activity cycles is established. It is found that the northern hemisphere rotates faster during the even cycles (Cycles 20 and 22) while the rotation of southern hemisphere dominates in odd one (Cycle 21). The mechanism of the solar activity should be responsible for the N–S asymmetry of the solar differential rotation.     

Statistical characteristics of large sunspots in solar activity cycles 17–23

Integral and differential distributions of sunspot diameters are studied for the last seven 11-year cycles of solar activity. Data of the Greenwich catalogue, Pulkovo’s database, and the “Solniechnyie Dannyie” bulletin are used. We found that the average index of integral distribution α is 6.0 for the diameters from 50 to 90 Mm and independent of the Wolf’s numbers, but it depends on a cycle phase in the majority of cycles (four of seven), i.e., it is higher during the ascending phase, of intermediate value during the maximum phase and minimum during the declining phase. Cycles 17, 18, and 22 behave differently: the index α is either invariable with phase or the variations differ from the above ones. It turned out that cycles 17 and 18 are peculiar by sunspot diameters, i.e., sunspots of up to 140–180 Mm in diameter, the largest over the last 80 years, have been observed. Three assumptions concerning the nature of these gigantic sunspots have been proposed: (a) these sunspots occur due to changes in differential rotation of the sun, (b) these sunspots are a certain independent statistical assembly formed in a sporadic discrete region of the convective zone, and (c) these sunspots are surface “fragments” of the relict magnetic field of the solar nucleus.     

Asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features over solar cycles 20–23

This paper presents the study of normalized north–south asymmetry, cumulative normalized north–south asymmetry and cumulative difference indices of sunspot areas, solar active prominences (at total, low (?40°) and high (?50°) latitudes) and Hα solar flares from 1964 to 2008 spanning the solar cycles 20–23. Three different statistical methods are used to obtain the asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features. Hemispherical distribution of activity features shows the dominance of activities in northern hemisphere for solar cycle 20 and in southern hemisphere for solar cycles 21–23 excluding solar active prominences at high latitudes. Cumulative difference index of solar activity features in each solar cycle is observed at the maximum of the respective solar cycle suggesting a cyclic behavior of approximately one solar cycle length. Asymmetric behavior of all activity features except solar active prominences at high latitudes hints at the long term periodic trend of eight solar cycles. North–south asymmetries of SAP (H) express the specific behavior of solar activity at high solar latitudes and its behavior in long-time scale is distinctly opposite to those of other activity features. Our results show that in most cases the asymmetry is statistically highly significant meaning thereby that the asymmetries are real features in the N–S distribution of solar activity features.     

Hubble observations of Jupiter’s north–south conjugate ultraviolet aurora

Comparisons of the northern and southern far ultraviolet (UV) auroral emissions of Jupiter from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) or any other ultraviolet imager have mostly been made so far on a statistical basis or were not obtained with high sensitivity and resolution. Such observations are important to discriminate between different mechanisms responsible for the electron acceleration of the different components of the aurora such as the satellite footprints, the «main oval» or the polar emissions. The field of view of the ACS and STIS cameras on board HST is not wide enough to provide images of the full jovian disk. We thus compare the morphology of the north and south aurora observed 55 min apart and we point out similarities and differences. On one occasion HST pointed successively the two polar regions and auroral images were seen separated by only 3 min. This makes it possible to compare the emission structure and the emitted FUV power of corresponding regions. We find that most morphological features identified in one hemisphere have a conjugate counterpart in the other hemisphere. However, the power associated with conjugate regions of the main oval, diffuse or discrete equatoward emission observed quasi-simultaneously may be different in the two hemispheres. It is not directly nor inversely proportional to the strength of the B-field as one might expect for diffuse precipitation or field-aligned acceleration with equal ionospheric electron density in both hemispheres. Finally, the lack of symmetry of some polar emissions suggests that some of them could be located on open magnetic field lines.     

Hα red asymmetry of solar flares

The evolutional characteristics of the red asymmetry of H flare line profiles were studied by means of a quantitative analysis of H flare spectra obtained with the Domeless Solar Telescope at Hida Observatory. Red-shifted emission streaks of H line are found at the initial phase of almost all flares which occur near the disk center, and are considered to be substantial features of the red asymmetry. It is found that a downward motion in the flare chromospheric region is the cause of the red-shifted emission streak. The downward motion abruptly increases at the onset of a flare, attains its maximum velocity of about 40 to 100 km s^-1 shortly before the impulsive peak of the microwave burst, and rapidly decreases before the intensity of H line reaches its maximum. Referring to the numerical simulations made by Livshits et al. (1981) and Somov et al. (1982), we conclude that the conspicuous red-asymmetry or the red-shifted emission streak of H line is due to the downward motion of the compressed chromospheric flare region produced by the impulsive heating by energetic electron beam or thermal conduction.Contributions from the Kwasan and Hida Observatories, University of Kyoto, No. 258.     

The solar coronal mass ejection of 20–21 November, 1973

The coronal transient event of 20–21 November is unusual in that its appearance is distinctly non-loop-like; rather, the transient resembles a confined ray or fan-like volume. Studies of the distribution of the coronal material with time indicate that this is a mass ejection event, involving about 1 × 10¹⁵ g of material from the lower corona. Analysis of the polarization signal of the event suggests that the event is associated with chromospheric activity in a region near longitude E68. The observed properties (distributions in brightness and polarization) of the transient are compared with the properties of a well-studied event of typical loop-like appearance, but rotated to simulate an edge-on appearance; the differences suggest that the 20–21 November event is not such an edge-on, loop-like transient, but rather is most simply described as an axisymmetric-cylindrical or conical volume, the boundaries of which remain constant over the events' lifetime. On this basis, the variation of the transient spatial density with height and the variation of density with time can be specified rather more certainly than for previously-studied coronal mass ejection events. Densities are found to range from 3 × 10^–16 g cm^–3 at 2.1 R heliocentric height early in the event to 1 × 10^–18 g cm^–3 at 4.0 R late in the event. Typical temporal variations of the ejected material (at a given heliocentric height) are found to be on the order of 10^–18 g cm^–3 s^–1. The mass and momentum balance in the event have been estimated from the observed parameters, employing a multiparameter approach. We find that a model with modest mass flux typified by material speed u ₀ 50 km s^–1 and a near balance between the event's pressure gradient force and gravity — with possibly a small hydromagnetic wave contribution to the total pressure — is consistent with the observations. The kinetic energy of the event, determined from the motion of the center of mass of the ejected material, is only about 10²⁶ ergs, and thus is the smallest for any solar mass ejection studied to date.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays during 19–23 solar cycles

We make a detailed analysis of cross-correlation and time-lag between monthly data of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) intensity and different solar activity indices (e.g., sunspot number, sunspot area, green coronal Fe line and 10.7 cm solar radio flux) during 19–23 solar cycles. GCRs time-series data from Kiel neutron monitor station and solar data from the last 50 years period, covering five solar cycles (19–23), and alternating solar polarity states (i.e., five A < 0 and four A > 0) have been investigated. We find a clear asymmetry in the cross-correlation between GCRs and solar activity indicators for both odd and even-numbered solar cycles. The time-lags between GCRs and solar parameters are found different in different solar cycles as well as in the opposite polarity states (A < 0 and A > 0) within the same solar cycle. Possible explanations of the observed results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects.     

Statistical properties of X-class flares and their relationship with super active regions during solar cycles 21–23

We investigate the statistical distribution of X-class flares and their relationship with super active regions (SARs) during solar cycles 21–23. Analysis results show that X1.0–X1.9 flares accounted for 52.71 % of all X-class flares, with X2.0–X2.9 flares at 20.59 %, X3.0–X4.9 at 13.57 %, X5–X9.9 at 8.37 % and ≥X10 at 4.75 %. All X-class flares occurred around the solar maximum during solar cycle 22, while in solar cycle 23, X-class flares were scattered in distribution. In solar cycle 21, X-class flares were distributed neither in a concentrated manner like cycle 22 nor in a scattered manner as cycle 23. During solar cycles 21–23, 32.2 % of the X1.0–X1.9 flares, 31.9 % of the X2.0–X2.9 flares, 43.3 % of the X3.0–X4.9 flares, 81.08 % of the X5.0–X9.9 flares, and 95.2 % of the ≥X10 flares were produced by SARs.     

Mid-term periodicities and heliospheric modulation of coronal index and solar flare index during solar cycles 22–23

We applied fast Fourier transform techniques and Morlet wavelet transform on the time series data of coronal index, solar flare index, and galactic cosmic ray, for the period 1986–2008, in order to investigate the long- and mid-term periodicities including the Rieger (\({\sim }130\) to \({\sim }190\) days), quasi-period (\({\sim }200\) to \({\sim }374\) days), and quasi-biennial periodicities (\({\sim }1.20\) to \({\sim }3.27\) years) during the combined solar cycles 22–23. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities are found in the range of low frequencies, while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. The rotation rates at the base of convection zone have periods for coronal index of \({\sim }1.43\) years and for solar flare index of \({\sim }1.41\) year, and galactic cosmic ray, \({\sim }1.35\) year, during combined solar cycles 22–23. In relation to these two solar parameters (coronal index and solar flare index), for the solar cycles 22–23, we found that galactic cosmic ray modulation at mid cut-off rigidity (\(\hbox {Rc} = 2.43\hbox {GV}\)) is anti-correlated with time-lag of few months.     

The solar terrestrial event of 14–21 December 1971: The pattern of 6300 Å emission over the polar cap

An exceptional solar terrestrial event was initiated by the ejection of plasma from the Sun on 14 December 1971 and was followed by a spectacular pattern of soft particle precipitation into the polar cap, which evolved in a slowly changing sequence until 21 December. The storm was characterized by high proton fluxes in space and near the Earth, an extended interval of northward B_z, a highly developed ring current and widespread polar cap particle fluxes. These varied from a dayside “butterfly pattern” early in the event, to highly structured Sun-aligned polar cap patterns late in recovery. A number of polar cap ground-based measurements were compiled and are reported upon. The storm seems reminiscent of the great red auroras of the IGY and some common features are noted. The 6300 Å emission is shown to result largely from direct excitation by low energy electrons, of a few hundred eV. Since the emission covered the Earth's high-latitude dayside region nearly to the invariant pole it indicates a magnetospheric topology that permits entry of low energy plasma over this region or of mechanisms which allow the generation or penetration of the plasma.     

The Formation of MgI 4571 Å in the solar atmosphere

The two-dimensional equation of transfer is solved for the case of locally-controlled source function (LTE) and radiationally-controlled ionization. Horizontal fluctuations in electron temperature and macroscopic velocity fields are superposed on the basic one-dimensional model (cf. Altrock and Cannon, 1972). Output intensities are compared with observed rms intensity fluctuations and spatially-averaged intensities in Mg i 4571 Å. We find that at least one model (with a height-independent temperature fluctuation T/T=±0.02 in the range 0h450 km) can predict the magnitude of the intensity fluctuations in both the continuum and 4571 Å. The asymmetry of the line can be explained by adding a height-independent, temperature-correlated flow of amplitude 1 to 2 km s^–1. The relationship between these results and other multi-dimensional analyses is discussed.On leave from Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.     

Spiral filaments — The signature of singular points in a large delta spot

A large delta spot (active region NOAA 6891, October 23 – November 4, 1991) is analysed, and it is found that some spiral filaments across the spot can be regarded as signatures of a singular point entity (SPE) which lies near a separator of this complicated magnetic field region. Near such an entity, 86% of the flares in the region were produced, including two white-light flares, one of which, being the largest flare of the region, was accompanied by a powerful mass ejection. In an island delta spot, a SPE could be recognized very close to the usual U-shaped inversion lines. Together with the other characteristics (bright H emission, highly sheared magnetic field, umbra obscured by H, magnetic flux imbalance in the range 21–31), the SPE can help us to predict effectively the sites for great flares to occur (Zirin and Liggett, 1987).On leaving from Purple Mountain Observatory, Nanjing, China.     

Prediction verification of solar cycles 18–24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically different.However,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed greatly.In this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18–24 based on Ohl’s Precursor Method.Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7(±1.1)near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5(±32.9).