The value of subsidence data in ground water model calibration

The accurate estimation of aquifer parameters such as transmissivity and specific storage is often an important objective during a ground water modeling investigation or aquifer resource evaluation. Parameter estimation is often accomplished with changes in hydraulic head data as the key and most abundant type of observation. The availability and accessibility of global positioning system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data in heavily pumped alluvial basins can provide important subsidence observations that can greatly aid parameter estimation. The aim of this investigation is to evaluate the value of spatial and temporal subsidence data for automatically estimating parameters with and without observation error using UCODE-2005 and MODFLOW-2000. A synthetic conceptual model (24 separate cases) containing seven transmissivity zones and three zones each for elastic and inelastic skeletal specific storage was used to simulate subsidence and drawdown in an aquifer with variably thick interbeds with delayed drainage. Five pumping wells of variable rates were used to stress the system for up to 15 years. Calibration results indicate that (1) the inverse of the square of the observation values is a reasonable way to weight the observations, (2) spatially abundant subsidence data typically produce superior parameter estimates under constant pumping even with observation error, (3) only a small number of subsidence observations are required to achieve accurate parameter estimates, and (4) for seasonal pumping, accurate parameter estimates for elastic skeletal specific storage values are largely dependent on the quantity of temporal observational data and less on the quantity of available spatial data.     

Calibration of a Land Subsidence Model Using InSAR Data via the Ensemble Kalman Filter

The application of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has been increasingly used to improve capabilities to model land subsidence in hydrogeologic studies. A number of investigations over the last decade show how spatially detailed time‐lapse images of ground displacements could be utilized to advance our understanding for better predictions. In this work, we use simulated land subsidences as observed measurements, mimicking InSAR data to inversely infer inelastic specific storage in a stochastic framework. The inelastic specific storage is assumed as a random variable and modeled using a geostatistical method such that the detailed variations in space could be represented and also that the uncertainties of both characterization of specific storage and prediction of land subsidence can be assessed. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a real‐time data assimilation algorithm, is used to inversely calibrate a land subsidence model by matching simulated subsidences with InSAR data. The performance of the EnKF is demonstrated in a synthetic example in which simulated surface deformations using a reference field are assumed as InSAR data for inverse modeling. The results indicate: (1) the EnKF can be used successfully to calibrate a land subsidence model with InSAR data; the estimation of inelastic specific storage is improved, and uncertainty of prediction is reduced, when all the data are accounted for; and (2) if the same ensemble is used to estimate Kalman gain, the analysis errors could cause filter divergence; thus, it is essential to include localization in the EnKF for InSAR data assimilation.     

A Potential-Based Inversion of Unconfined Steady-State Hydraulic Tomography

The importance of estimating spatially variable aquifer parameters such as transmissivity is widely recognized for studies in resource evaluation and contaminant transport. A useful approach for mapping such parameters is inverse modeling of data from series of pumping tests, that is, via hydraulic tomography. This inversion of field hydraulic tomographic data requires development of numerical forward models that can accurately represent test conditions while maintaining computational efficiency. One issue this presents is specification of boundary and initial conditions, whose location, type, and value may be poorly constrained. To circumvent this issue when modeling unconfined steady-state pumping tests, we present a strategy that analyzes field data using a potential difference method and that uses dipole pumping tests as the aquifer stimulation. By using our potential difference approach, which is similar to modeling drawdown in confined settings, we remove the need for specifying poorly known boundary condition values and natural source/sink terms within the problem domain. Dipole pumping tests are complementary to this strategy in that they can be more realistically modeled than single-well tests due to their conservative nature, quick achievement of steady state, and the insensitivity of near-field response to far-field boundary conditions. After developing the mathematical theory, our approach is first validated through a synthetic example. We then apply our method to the inversion of data from a field campaign at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. Results from inversion of nine pumping tests show expected geologic features, and uncertainty bounds indicate that hydraulic conductivity is well constrained within the central site area.     

1605年7月13日琼州历史地震陆沉原因

本文通过地震史料考证,野外地质调查,钻孔土层力学性质分析,场地震害考察等资料的研究,认为琼州历史地震在滨海地带第四纪软弱土层中诱发了砂土液化、软土流滑、造成地基失效、场地不均匀沉陷的情况,是导致震区内特殊地段“陆地沉陷”的主要原因     

Assessing radial transmissivity variation in heterogeneous aquifers using analytical techniques

Pumping tests are one of the most commonly used in situ testing techniques for assessing aquifer hydraulic properties. Numerous researches have been conducted to predict the effects of aquifer heterogeneity on the groundwater levels during pumping tests. The objectives of the present work were as follows: (1) to predict drawdown conditions and to estimate aquifer properties during pumping tests undertaken in radially symmetric heterogeneous aquifers, and (2) to identify a method for assessing the transmissivity field along the radial coordinate in radially symmetric and fully heterogeneous transmissivity fields. The first objective was achieved by expanding an existing analytical drawdown formulation that was valid for a radially symmetric confined aquifer with two concentric zones around the pumping well to an N concentric zone confined aquifer having a constant transmissivity value within each zone. The formulation was evaluated for aquifers with three and four concentric zones to assess the effects of the transmissivity field on the drawdown conditions. The specific conditions under which aquifer properties could be identified using traditional methods of analysis were also evaluated. The second objective was achieved by implementing the inverse solution algorithm (ISA), which was developed for petroleum reservoirs to groundwater aquifer settings. The results showed that the drawdown values are influenced by a volumetric integral of a weighting function and the transmissivity field within the cone of depression. The weighting function migrates in tandem with the expanding cone of depression. The ability of the ISA to predict radially symmetric and log‐normally distributed transmissivity fields was assessed against analytical and numerical benchmarks. The results of this investigation indicated that the ISA method is a viable technique for evaluating the radial transmissivity variations of heterogeneous aquifer settings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Undetected Barriers on Groundwater Drawdown and Recovery

In large-scale pumping projects, such as mine dewatering, predictions are often made about the rate of groundwater level recovery after pumping has ceased. However, these predictions may be impacted by geological uncertainty—including the presence of undetected impermeable barriers. During pumping, an impermeable barrier may be undetected if it is located beyond the maximum extent of the cone of depression; yet it may still control drawdown during the recovery phase. This has implications for regional-scale modeling and monitoring of groundwater level recovery. In this article, non-dimensional solutions are developed to show the conditions under which a barrier may be undetected during pumping but still significantly impact groundwater level recovery. The magnitude of the impact from an undetected barrier will increase as the ratio of pumping rate to aquifer transmissivity increases. The results are exemplified for a hypothetical aquifer with an unknown barrier 3 km from a pumping well. The difference in drawdown between a model with and without a barrier may be <1 m in the 10 years while pumping is occurring, but up to 50 m after pumping has ceased.     

Relationship between transmissivity and specific capacity in the volcanic aquifers of Jeju Island, Korea

Transmissivity is often estimated using specific capacity data when standard pumping test data are not available or the drawdown is stabilized early, as in this study. Previous researchers studied the relationship between transmissivity and specific capacity in the leaky aquifer system of volcanic rocks on Jeju Island, Korea, using the Cooper–Jacob equation. The current study utilizes the Moench leaky aquifer model. The linear relationship between transmissivity and specific capacity on a log–log scale for volcanic aquifers on Jeju Island is remarkably strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. The width of the 90% prediction interval is about 0.89 log cycles, indicating a ±0.44 order of magnitude uncertainty when transmissivity is estimated using specific capacity.     

A single recovery type curve from Theis'' exact solution

The Theis type curve matching method and the Cooper-Jacob semilog method are commonly used for estimation of transmissivity and storage coefficient of infinite, homogeneous, isotropic, confined aquifers from drawdown data of a constant rate pumping test. Although these methods are based on drawdown data, they are often applied indiscriminately to analyze both drawdown and recovery data. Moreover, the limitations of drawdown type curve to analyze recovery data collected after short pumping times are not well understood by the practicing engineers. This often may result in an erroneous interpretation of such recovery data. In this paper, a novel but simple method is proposed to determine the storage coefficient as well as transmissivity from recovery data measured after the pumping period of an aquifer test. The method eliminates the dependence on pumping time effects and has the advantage of employing only one single recovery type curve. The method based on the conversion of residual drawdown to recovered drawdown (buildup) data plotted versus a new equivalent time (delta(t) x t(p)/t(p) + delta(t)). The method uses the recovery data in one observation point only, and does not need the initial water level h0, which may be unknown. The accuracy of the method is checked with three sets of field data. This method appears to be complementary to the Cooper-Jacob and Theis methods, as it provides values of both storage coefficient and transmissivity from recovery data, regardless of pumping duration.     

Joint simulation of transmissivity and storativity fields conditional to steady-state and transient hydraulic head data

The self-calibrated method has been extended for the generation of equally likely realizations of transmissivity and storativity conditional to transmissivity and storativity data and to steady-state and transient hydraulic head data. Conditioning to transmissivity and storativity data is achieved by means of standard geostatistical co-simulation algorithms, whereas conditioning to hydraulic head data, given its non-linear relation to transmissivity and storativity, is achieved through non-linear optimization, similar to standard inverse algorithms. The algorithm is demonstrated in a synthetic study based on data from the WIPP site in New Mexico. Seven alternative scenarios are investigated, generating 100 realizations for each of them. The differences among the scenarios range from the number of conditioning data, to their spatial configuration, to the pumping strategies at the pumping wells. In all scenarios, the self-calibrated algorithm is able to generate transmissivity–storativity realization couples conditional to all the sample data. For the specific case studied here the results are not surprising. Of the piezometric head data, the steady-state values are the most consequential for transmissivity characterization. Conditioning to transient head data only introduces local adjustments on the transmissivity fields and serves to improve the characterization of the storativity fields.     

Unifying NAPL Drawdown and Transmissivity Testing in Unconfined,Confined, Perched,and Fractured Settings using the Z-Factor and MH Principles

Light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) flow in in fractured rock is governed by the same physics as porous media, but LNAPL discharge to a well from fractured rock is subject to the unique geometry of the fractures within the rock and the degree of interconnectivity between the factures. Previous conceptualization and definition of drawdown of nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPL) has employed a single drawdown value to represent the entire vertical interval of mobile NAPL. Application of the single drawdown model may result in erroneous calculation of NAPL transmissivity in fractured rock settings. This work illustrates how drawdown in multiphase systems can be variable over the vertical interval of mobile NAPL. In settings with discrete fracture networks, it is clear that consistently applying a single drawdown value will not accurately represent the pressure gradients. This work presents the multiphase head (MH) model, which is proposed as a comprehensive methodology for evaluating NAPL drawdown in fractured rock, and unconsolidated porous media. The MH model utilizes fluid statics and physical principles to accurately represent pressure differences in the formation and convert those into NAPL drawdown for discrete elevations. This first principles approach to describing how drawdown varies with NAPL-production zone elevations and fluid levels, resulting in a more accurate representation of discharge vs. fluid elevation behavior. Application of the MH model to various scenarios has identified that dissimilar scenarios can represent similar behavior during recovery from a NAPL removal event or baildown test. The resulting understanding improves the selection of representative portions of baildown test data to use in NAPL transmissivity analysis. Proper conceptualization of drawdown in bedrock identifies an alternate analysis method, the Z-factor, to estimate NAPL transmissivity. The resulting drawdown calculations and transmissivity analysis method result in a comprehensive approach to calculating NAPL transmissivity in both bedrock and unconsolidated porous media.     

An inverse procedure to estimate transmissivity from heads and SP signals

Experimental hydraulic heads and electrical (self-potential) signals associated with a pumping test were used in an inverse model to estimate the transmissivity distribution of a real aquifer. Several works reported in the literature show that there is a relatively good linear relationship between the hydraulic heads in the aquifer and electrical signals measured at the ground surface. In this experimental test field, first, the current coupling coefficient was determined by the best fit between experimental and modeled self-potential signals at the end of the pumping phase. Soon afterward, with the hydraulic heads obtained from the self-potential signals, the transmissivity distribution of the aquifer was conditioned by means an inverse model based on the successive linear estimator (SLE). To further substantiate the estimated T field from the SLE analysis, we analyzed the drawdown rate, the derivative of the drawdown with respect to the ln(t), because the drawdown rate is highly sensitive to the variability in the transmissivity field. In our opinion, these results show that self-potential signals allow the monitoring of subsurface flow in the course of pumping experiments, and that electrical potentials serve as a good complement to piezometric observations to condition and characterize the transmissivity distribution of an aquifer.     

Determination of Storage Coefficients During Pumping and Recovery

An aquifer test is used mostly to determine the storage coefficient and transmissivity. Although residual drawdown data are widely used in estimating the transmissivity of aquifers, the estimation of storage coefficients with recovery data is controversial. Some researchers have proposed methods to estimate storage coefficients with recovery data by assuming equality of storage coefficients for the recovery and pumping periods (S = S′). The aim of this study is to determine storage coefficients without such an assumption, that is, S≠S′. The method is a modified version of Banton‐Bangoy's method without considering drawdown data due to pumping. Drawdown is plotted vs. the logarithmic ratio (t′/t) or time since pumping stopped to the duration of pumping and the ratio of storage coefficient during recovery to the storage coefficient from the pumping period (S′/S). The method is verified with one case study and two synthetic examples. Thus, it is possible to determine storage coefficient of pumping period accurately without any data from pumping period by recovery data.     

Development of a new semi-analytical model for cross-borehole flow experiments in fractured media

Analysis of borehole flow logs is a valuable technique for identifying the presence of fractures in the subsurface and estimating properties such as fracture connectivity, transmissivity and storativity. However, such estimation requires the development of analytical and/or numerical modeling tools that are well adapted to the complexity of the problem. In this paper, we present a new semi-analytical formulation for cross-borehole flow in fractured media that links transient vertical-flow velocities measured in one or a series of observation wells during hydraulic forcing to the transmissivity and storativity of the fractures intersected by these wells. In comparison with existing models, our approach presents major improvements in terms of computational expense and potential adaptation to a variety of fracture and experimental configurations. After derivation of the formulation, we demonstrate its application in the context of sensitivity analysis for a relatively simple two-fracture synthetic problem, as well as for field-data analysis to investigate fracture connectivity and estimate fracture hydraulic properties. These applications provide important insights regarding (i) the strong sensitivity of fracture property estimates to the overall connectivity of the system; and (ii) the non-uniqueness of the corresponding inverse problem for realistic fracture configurations.     

Leakage properties of the multi-aquifer system underlying the Greater Onitsha water scheme borehole field,Anambra State,Nigeria

Abstract

Leakage properties and the potential for land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal from a multi-aquifer water supply system were investigated by applying leaky type curve and one dimensional consolidation models to drawdown data that were obtained during a pumping test experiment in an aquifer-aquitard system. The producing aquifer has transmissivity and storativity values of 5.3 × 10^?3 m² s^?1 and 9.54 × 10^?4 respectively. It is recharged through leakage at a rate of 5.67 × 10^?8 m s^?1, giving a leakage amount of more than 0.007 m³ s^?1. Drainage of the aquifer-aquitard system could result in aquitard compaction of between 50 and 180 mm year^?1 for pumping periods of 6 and 22 h day^?1, respectively. The observed leakage has important implications for land subsidence problems and waste disposal practices in the area.     

Joint Estimation of Hydraulic and Poroelastic Parameters from a Pumping Test

The coupling of hydraulic and poroelastic processes is critical in predicting processes involving the deformation of the geologic medium in response to fluid extraction or injection. Numerical models that consider the coupling of hydraulic and poroelastic processes require the knowledge of relevant parameters for both aquifer and aquitard units. In this study, we jointly estimated hydraulic and poroelastic parameters from pumping test data exhibiting “reverse water level fluctuations,” known as the Noordbergum effect, in aquitards adjacent to a pumped aquifer. The joint estimation was performed by coupling BIOT2, a finite element, two‐dimensional, axisymmetric, groundwater model that considers poroelastic effects with the parameter estimation code PEST. We first tested our approach using a synthetic data set with known parameters. Results of the synthetic case showed that for a simple layered system, it was possible to reproduce accurately both the hydraulic and poroelastic properties for each layer. We next applied the approach to pumping test data collected at the North Campus Research Site (NCRS) on the University of Waterloo (UW) campus. Based on the detailed knowledge of stratigraphy, a five‐layer system was modeled. Parameter estimation was performed by: (1) matching drawdown data individually from each observation port and (2) matching drawdown data from all ports at a single well simultaneously. The estimated hydraulic parameters were compared to those obtained by other means at the site yielding good agreement. However, the estimated shear modulus was higher than the static shear modulus, but was within the range of dynamic shear modulus reported in the literature, potentially suggesting a loading rate effect.     

Conceptualization and Calibration of Anisotropic Alluvial Systems: Pitfalls and Biases

Physical properties of alluvial environments typically feature a high degree of anisotropy and are characterized by dynamic interactions between the surface and the subsurface. Hydrogeological models are often calibrated under the assumptions of isotropic hydraulic conductivity fields and steady-state conditions. We aim at understanding how these simplifications affect predictions of the water table using physically based models and advanced calibration and uncertainty analysis approaches based on singular value decomposition and Bayesian analysis. Specifically, we present an analysis of the information content provided by steady-state hydraulic data compared to transient data with respect to the estimation of aquifer and riverbed hydraulic properties. We show that assuming isotropy or fixed anisotropy may generate biases both in the estimation of aquifer and riverbed parameters as well as in the predictive uncertainty of the water table. We further demonstrate that the information content provided by steady-state hydraulic heads is insufficient to jointly estimate the aquifer anisotropy together with the aquifer and riverbed hydraulic conductivities and that transient data can help to reduce the predictive uncertainty to a greater extent. The outcomes of the synthetic analysis are applied to the calibration of a dynamic and anisotropic alluvial aquifer in Switzerland (The Rhône River). The results of the synthetic and real world modeling and calibration exercises documented herein provide insight on future data acquisition as well as modeling and calibration strategies for these environments. They also provide an incentive for evaluation and estimation of commonly made simplifying assumptions in order to prevent underestimation of the predictive uncertainty.     

Determination of specific yield for the Biscayne Aquifer with a canal-drawdown test

Data from a large-scale canal-drawdown test were used to estimate the specific yield (sy) of the Biscayne Aquifer, an unconfined limestone aquifer in southeast Florida. The drawdown test involved dropping the water level in a canal by about 30 cm and monitoring the response of hydraulic head in the surrounding aquifer. Specific yield was determined by analyzing data from the unsteady portion of the drawdown test using an analytical stream-aquifer interaction model (Zlotnik and Huang 1999). Specific yield values computed from drawdown at individual piezometers ranged from 0.050 to 0.57, most likely indicating heterogeneity of specific yield within the aquifer (small-scale variation in hydraulic conductivity may also have contributed to the differences in sy among piezometers). A value of 0.15 (our best estimate) was computed based on all drawdown data from all piezometers. We incorporated our best estimate of specific yield into a large-scale two-dimensional numerical MODFLOW-based ground water flow model and made predictions of head during a 183-day period at four wells located 337 to 2546 m from the canal. We found good agreement between observed and predicted heads, indicating our estimate of specific yield is representative of the large portion of the Biscayne Aquifer studied here. This work represents a practical and novel approach to the determination of a key hydrogeological parameter (the storage parameter needed for simulation and calculation of transient unconfined ground water flow), at a large spatial scale (a common scale for water resource modeling), for a highly transmissive limestone aquifer (in which execution of a traditional pump test would be impractical and would likely yield ambiguous results). Accurate estimates of specific yield and other hydrogeological parameters are critical for management of water supply, Everglades environmental restoration, flood control, and other issues related to the ground water hydrology of the Biscayne Aquifer.     

Using direct current resistivity sounding and geostatistics to aid in hydrogeological studies in the Choshuichi alluvial fan, Taiwan

Ground water reservoirs in the Choshuichi alluvial fan, central western Taiwan, were investigated using direct-current (DC) resistivity soundings at 190 locations, combined with hydrogeological measurements from 37 wells. In addition, attempts were made to calculate aquifer transmissivity from both surface DC resistivity measurements and geostatistically derived predictions of aquifer properties. DC resistivity sounding data are highly correlated to the hydraulic parameters in the Choshuichi alluvial fan. By estimating the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity from the kriged well data and the cokriged thickness of the correlative aquifer from both resistivity sounding data and well information, the transmissivity of the aquifer at each location can be obtained from the product of kriged hydraulic conductivity and computed thickness of the geoelectric layer. Thus, the spatial variation of the transmissivities in the study area is obtained. Our work is more comparable to Ahmed et al. (1988) than to the work of Niwas and Singhal (1981). The first "constraint" from Niwas and Singhal's work is a result of their use of linear regression. The geostatistical approach taken here (and by Ahmed et al. [1988]) is a natural improvement on the linear regression approach.     

Image-guided inversion in steady-state hydraulic tomography

In steady-state hydraulic tomography, the head data recorded during a series of pumping or/and injection tests can be inverted to determine the transmissivity distributions of an aquifer. This inverse problem is usually under-determined and ill-posed. We propose to use structural information inferred from a guiding image to constrain the inversion process. The guiding image can be drawn from soft data sets such as seismic and ground penetrating radar sections or from geological cross-sections inferred from the wells and some geological expertise. The structural information is extracted from the guiding image through some digital image analysis techniques. Then, it is introduced into the inversion process of the head data as a weighted four direction smoothing matrix used in the regularizer. Such smoothing matrix allows applying the smoothing along the structural features. This helps preserving eventual drops in the hydraulic properties. In addition, we apply a procedure called image-guided interpolation. This technique starts with the tomogram obtained from the image-guided inversion and focus this tomogram. These new approaches are applied on four synthetic toy problems. The hydraulic distributions estimated from the image-guided inversion are closer to the true transmissivity model and have higher resolution than those computed from a classical Gauss–Newton method with uniform isotropic smoothing.