Frictional and viscous effects on the nucleation phase of an earthquake

We study the frictional and viscous effects on earthquake nucleation, especially for the nucleation phase, based on a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model with friction and viscosity. The frictional and viscous effects are specified by the characteristic displacement, U _c, and viscosity coefficient, η, respectively. Simulation results show that friction and viscosity can both lengthen the natural period of the system and viscosity increases the duration time of motion of the slider. Higher viscosity causes a smaller amplitude of lower velocity motion than lower viscosity. A change of either U _c (under large η) or η (under large U _c) from a large value (U _ch for U _c and η _h for η) to a small one (U _cl for U _c and η _l for η) in two stages during sliding can result in a clear nucleation phase prior to the P-wave. The differences δU _c = U _ch ? U _cl and δη = η _h ? η _l are two important factors in producing a nucleation phase. The difference between the nucleation phase and the P-wave increases with either δU _c or δη. Like seismic observations, the peak amplitude of P-wave, which is associated with the earthquake magnitude, is independent upon the duration time of nucleation phase. A mechanism specified with a change of either η or U _c from a larger value to a smaller one due to temporal variations in pore fluid pressure and temperature in the fault zone based on radiation efficiency is proposed to explain the simulation results and observations.     

Development of fragility curves by incorporating new spectral shape indicators and a weighted damage index: case study of steel braced frames in the city of Mashhad,Iran

In this study, strong ground motion record(SGMR) selection based on Eta(η) as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced frame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis for the definition of the target Epsilon(ε) and the target Eta(η) values at different hazard levels is presented, taking into account appropriately selected SGMR's. Fragility curves are developed for different limit states corresponding to three representative models of typical steel braced frames having significant irregularities in plan, by means of a weighted damage index. The results show that spectral shape indicators have an important effect on the predicted median structural capacities, and also that the parameter η is a more robust predictor of damage than searching for records with appropriate ε values.     

Upper mantle structure beneath central Western Europe from data on phase velocities of surface waves

The deep structure of the upper mantle is determined from data on phase velocities of Love and Rayleigh waves measured by a differential method on traces between two stations in central Western Europe. One-dimensional velocity structures are first constructed from data of each pair of stations, after which two-dimensional distributions of SH and SV velocities are calculated by the method of two-dimensional tomography from S wave velocities at fixed depths. The results are presented in the form of 2-D vertical structures of the average S wave velocity (S = (SV + SH)/2) constructed along profiles crossing the region in directions of the best resolution. The main structural features are a higher velocity zone at depths of 60–80 km in the area (48°–50°N, 9°–11°E) and a lower velocity zone in the western part of the region at depths of 100–150 km, probably extending farther beyond the studied area.     

Limits of transversely isotropic elastic parameters for the existence of classical Rayleigh waves

Solutions of P-SV equations of motion in a homogeneous transversely isotropic elastic layer contain a factor exp(±ν _j z), where z is the vertical coordinate and j?=?1, 2. For computing Rayleigh wave dispersion in a multi-layered half space, ν _j is computed at each layer. For a given phase velocity (c), ν _j becomes complex depending on the transversely isotropic parameters. When ν _j is complex, classical Rayleigh waves do not exist and generalised Rayleigh waves propagate along a path inclined to the interface. We use transversely isotropic parameters as α _H , β _V , ξ, ? and η and find their limits beyond which ν _j becomes complex. It is seen that ν _j depends on ? and η, but does not depend on ξ. The complex ν _j occurs when ? is small and η is large. For a given c/β _V , the region of complex ν _j in a ? -η plane increases with the increase of α _H /β _V . Further, for a given α _H /β _V , the complex region of ν _j increases significantly with the decrease of c/β _V . This study is useful to compute dispersion parameters of Rayleigh waves in a layered medium.     

Neural network estimate of seismic velocities and resistivity of rocks from electromagnetic and seismic sounding data

The neural network estimates of seismic P- and S-wave velocities from electrical resistivity of the rocks and, vice versa, resistivity estimates from seismic velocities are presented. It is shown that, depending on the ratio between the volumes of the known data and the data to be reconstructed, the accuracy of the estimates of the P- and S-wave velocities ranges within 1–4 and 4–6%, respectively. The logarithmic resistivity is estimated from seismic P- and S-velocities as accurately as up to 15–17%. In all cases, the biggest errors are obtained when the estimates are based on correlated data.     

Testing the reference Moon model in respect of the thermal regime and chemical composition of the mantle: Thermodynamics versus seismology

The VPREMOON seismic reference Moon model (Garcia et al., 2011) has been tested with respect to the thermal regime and chemical composition of the mantle. Based on a self-consistent thermodynamic approach and petrological models of the lunar mantle covering a wide range of concentrations of CaO, Al₂O₃, and FeO, we convert the P- and S-wave velocity profiles to the temperature–depth profiles. The solution procedure relies on the method of the Gibbs free energy minimization and the equations of state for the mantle material which take into account the effects of phase transformations, anharmonicity, and anelasticity. We find that regardless of the chemical composition, the positive P- and S-wave velocity gradient in the lunar mantle leads to a negative temperature gradient, which has no physical basis. For adequate mantle temperatures, the P- and S-wave velocities should remain almost constant or slightly decrease with depth (especially V_S) as a result of the effects of the temperature, which grows faster than pressure. These findings underscore the importance of the relationship of the thermodynamics and physics of minerals with seismology.     

Hydrogen isotopes in palmitic and stearic acids in suspended particles from the Changjiang River Estuary

Hydrogen isotopes in lipid biomarkers can trace past changes in the hydrologic cycle. Recent studies have revealed the potential of hydrogen isotopes in microalgal lipids for quantitatively reconstructing water δ~2H(δD) values and salinity. In this study we collected suspended particles along a salinity gradient from the Changjiang River Estuary(CRE), and measured δD values in fatty acids in these particles. The results indicated that δD values of water were correlated highly with salinity from the CRE, in agreement with the results from other estuaries. δD values in palmitic acid and stearic acid had a positive correlation with δD values of water from the CRE. Nevertheless, in the CRE, hydrogen isotope fractionation in fatty acids relative to water increased as salinity increased, opposite the trend in hydrogen isotope fractionation with salinity found in microalgal culture and field studies. We attribute the increase in hydrogen isotope fractionation as salinity increased to light availability, which was likely lower in the particle rich mixing zone at the end of the estuary, and potentially as well to multiple sources of fatty acids in the CRE.     

A way of estimating the characteristic slip displacement

During the ruptures of an earthquake,the strain energy.△E,.will be transferred into,at least,three parts,i.e..the seismic radiation energy(E_s),fracture energy(E_g),and frictional energy(E_f),that is,△E = E_s + E_g + E_f.Friction,which is represented by a velocity- and state-dependent friction law by some researchers,controls the three parts.One of the main parameters of the law is the characteristic slip displacement.D_c.It is significant and necessary to evaluate the reliable value of D_c from observed and inverted seismic data.Since D_c controls the radiation efficiency.η_R = E_s/(E_s+ E_g),the value of η_r is a good constraint of estimating D_c.Integrating observed data and inverted results of source parameters from recorded seismograms.the values of E_s and E_g of an earthquake can be measured,thus leading to the value of η_R.The constraint used to estimate the reliable value of D_c will be described in this work.An example of estimates of D_c.based on the observed and inverted values of source parameters of the September 20,1999 M_S 7.6 Chi-Chi(Ji-Ji).Taiwan region,earthquake will be presented.     

Detailed Study of Time Variations in the Gutenberg–Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value Based on Highly Accurate Seismic Observations at the Garm Prognostic Site,Tajikistan

The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log₁₀E^2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log₁₀E^2/3, and log₁₀N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log₁₀E^2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log₁₀N_i and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log₁₀N_i time series in the different magnitude ranges (M ≥ Mc_i) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logN(ΔM_i) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log₁₀N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.     

Tectonic plates parameters estimated in International Terrestrial Reference Frame ITRF2008 based on DORIS stations

This paper concerns an analysis of the accuracy of the estimated parameters Ω (Φ, Λ, ω) which define the tectonic plate motions. The study is based on the velocities of station positions in the IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) which has published new realization of the International Terrestrial Reference System—ITRF2008 for Doppler Orbitography by Radiopositioning Integrated on Satellite DORIS technique. Eurasian, African, Australian, North American, Australian, Pacific, Antarctic and South American plates were used in the analysis. The influence of the number and localization of stations on the plate surface on the estimation accuracy of the tectonic plate motion parameters were discussed. The results were compared with the APKIM 2005 IGN model and our earlier estimation for the SLR technique. In general, a remarkable concurrent agreement between the present and the APKIM 2005 solutions was found.     

Critical frequencies <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 as an indicator of trends in thermospheric dynamics

The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.     

Modeling of the thermal structure of continental lithosphere

The thermal structure of continental lithosphere (the temperature, heat flows, and heat generation in the crust and lithosphere) is reconstructed from geothermal, seismic, and petrologic data. The first step is the determination of the temperature profile from absolute P and S wave velocities (T _{P, S} ). The T _{P, S} profile is then adjusted to a thermophysical model of conductive transfer. In addition, the surface heat flow and the T _{P, S} profile are used to determine heat generation, thicknesses of crustal layers, and heat flow components in the crust and lithosphere. A feature inherent in the solution of the thermophysical inverse problem obtained in this paper is the use of constraints derived from the temperature reconstruction by seismic data inversion. As a result, the analytical dependence of the temperature on depth, the intensity of radiogenic heat sources in the crust, and heat flow components in the crust and lithosphere are determined.     

Прерывистое освещение поля зрения при методе соответствуюших высот и относительные уклонения отвеса в высоких татрах

To determine the relative deflections of the vertical from geodetic data and from astronomical measurements we used the method of equal altitudes, determining the time of passage by means of interrupted illumination of the field of view. The field of view of the telescope used (Zeiss Theo 010 and an astrolabe having an angle of 60°) was therefore supplied with five groups of seven horizontal fibres and during the passage of the two images the field of view was illuminated by a neon tube for a period of about 0·15 s every three seconds. The neon tube was connected either directly to an OMA 50 time signal by means of a transistor receiver or to a chronometer. The calculation was performed by means of relations (1) and (2). Apart from the corrections usually introduced, the personal-instrumental error (containing also a correction from the decimal equation) of the longitudeo _λ and the correctiona _η of the component η were also determined from the measurements. The correctionso _λ=?0·069s ando _η=?0·66″ also contain a correction from the decimal equation. Its value iso _λ ^′ =?0·030s for the longitude. The lago _λ?o _λ ^′ in reading the interpolation was ?0·039 s. The valueo _η=?0·66″ was introduced into the calculation of the vertical components η obtained from measurements in the High Tatras. The values of the corrections are given in Tab. 1. The method permits measurement of the passages of stars through the almucantar in the meridian. No conclusive proof was found for the impersonality (Tab. 1). The method was verified practically when determining the relative deflections of the vertical in the High Tatras for refining altitude measurements. The results are given in Tab. 2 and Fig. 2. The course of the quasigeoid profile in the Kriváňmeridian was also found (Fig. 3).     

Ionospheric Time-delay over Akure Using Global Positioning System Observations

Ionospheric time delay (VΔt) variability using Global Positioning System (GPS) data over Akure (7.15°N, 5.12°E), Nigeria, has been studied. The observed variability of VΔt in comparison to older results of vertical total electron content (TEC) across similar regions has shown equivalent signatures. Higher monthly mean values of VΔt (MVΔt) were observed during daytime as compared to nighttime (pre- and post-midnight) hours in all months. The highest MVΔt observed in September during daytime hours range between ~6 and ~21 ns (~1.80 and ~6.30 m) and at post-midnight, they are in the range of ~1 to ~6 ns (~0.3 to ~1.80 m). The possible mechanisms responsible for this variability were discussed. Seasonal VΔt were investigated as well.     

Shear Wave Velocity Estimates through Combined Use of Passive Techniques in a Tectonically Active Area

We made an attempt to assess the shear wave velocity values V _S and, to a lesser extent, the V _P values from ambient noise recordings in an array configuration. Five array sites were situated in the close proximity to borehole sites. Shear wave velocity profiles were modeled at these five array sites with the aid of two computational techniques, viz. spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) and H/V ellipticity. Out of these five array sites, velocity estimates could be reliably inferred at three locations. The shear wave velocities estimated by these methods are found to be quite consistent with each other. The computed V _S values up to 30 m depth are in the range from 275 to 375 m/s in most of the sites, which implies prevalence of a low velocity zone at some pocket areas. The results were corroborated by evidence of site geology as well as geotechnical information.     

Study on three independent parameters of focal mechanism solution

In this paper, the relationships of the plunges and azimuths of T and P axes versus the strikes, dips, and rakes of two seismic nodal planes were derived to provide reference for earthquake researchers. The independence of the plunges and azimuths of T, B, and P axes in focal mechanism solution was discussed, and it was concluded that three parameters, i.e., the azimuths of T, B and P axes, are completely independent. The focal mechanism solution representation based on Euler rotation was introduced, using three Euler angles in place of the plunges and azimuths of T, B, and P axes, and three focal mechanism solution representations were briefly compared and analyzed in respect of accuracy on the basis of the assumption of rounding; it was concluded that the Euler angle representation has better accuracy, compared with the azimuth representation and the traditional representation with T, B, and P axes.     

Long-period irregular pulsations under the conditions of a quiet magnetosphere

Simultaneous observations of high-latitude long-period irregular pulsations at frequencies of 2.0–6.0 mHz (ipcl) and magnetic field disturbances in the solar wind plasma at low geomagnetic activity (Kp ~ 0) have been studied. The 1-s data on the magnetic field registration at Godhavn (GDH) high-latitude observatory and the 1-min data on the solar wind plasma and IMF parameters for 2011–2013 were used in an analysis. Ipcl (irregular pulsations continuous, long), which were observed against a background of the IMF Bz reorientation from northward to southward, have been analyzed. In this case other solar wind plasma and IMF parameters, such as velocity V, density n, solar wind dynamic pressure P = ρV² (ρ is plasma density), and strength magnitude B, were relatively stable. The effect of the IMF Bz variation rate on the ipcl spectral composition and intensity has been studied. It was established that the ipcl spectral density reaches its maximum (~10–20 min) after IMF Bz sign reversal in a predominant number of cases. It was detected that the ipcl average frequency (f) is linearly related to the IMF Bz variation rate (ΔBz/Δt). It was shown that the dependence of f on ΔBz/Δt is controlled by the α = arctan(By/Bx) angle value responsible for the MHD discontinuity type at the front boundary of magnetosphere. The results made it possible to assume that the formation of the observed ipcl spectrum, which is related to the IMF Bz reorientation, is caused by solar wind plasma turbulence, which promotes the development of current sheet instability and surface wave amplification at the magnetopause.     

Shape and position of Earth’s bow shock near-lunar orbit based on ARTEMIS data

Earth’s bow shock is the result of interaction between the supersonic solar wind and Earth’s magnetopause. However, data limitations mean the model of the shape and position of the bow shock are based largely on near-Earth satellite data. The model of the bow shock in the distant magnetotail and other factors that affect the bow shock, such as the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B_y, remain unclear. Here, based on the bow shock crossings of ARTEMIS from January 2011 to January 2015, new coefficients of the tail-flaring angle α of the Chao model (one of the most accurate models currently available) were obtained by fitting data from the middle-distance magnetotail (near-lunar orbit, geocentric distance -20R_E>X>-50R_E). In addition, the effects of the IMF B_y on the flaring angle α were analyzed. Our results showed that: (1) the new fitting coefficients of the Chao model in the middle-distance magnetotail are more consistent with the observed results; (2) the tail-flaring angle α of the bow shock increases as the absolute value of the IMF B_y increases. Moreover, positive IMF B_y has a greater effect than negative IMF B_y on flaring angle. These results provide a reference for bow shock modeling that includes the IMF B_y.     

Stochastic models of severe weather watches and warnings: transition probabilities

To alert the public to the possibility of tornado (T), hail (H), or convective wind (C), the National Weather Service (NWS) issues watches (V) and warnings (W). There are severe thunderstorm watches (SV), tornado watches (TV), and particularly dangerous situation watches (PV); and there are severe thunderstorm warnings (SW), and tornado warnings (TW). Two stochastic models are formulated that quantify uncertainty in severe weather alarms for the purpose of making decisions: a one-stage model for deciders who respond to warnings, and a two-stage model for deciders who respond to watches and warnings. The models identify all possible sequences of watches, warnings, and events, and characterize the associated uncertainties in terms of transition probabilities. The modeling approach is demonstrated on data from the NWS Norman, Oklahoma, warning area, years 2000–2007. The major findings are these. (i) Irrespective of its official designation, every warning type {SW, TW} predicts with a significant probability every event type {T, H, C}. (ii) An ordered intersection of SW and TW, defined as reinforced warning (RW), provides additional predictive information and outperforms SW and TW. (iii) A watch rarely leads directly to an event, and most frequently is false. But a watch that precedes a warning does matter. The watch type \(\{SV\), TV, \(PV\}\) is a predictor of the warning type \(\{SW\), RW, \(TW\}\) and of the warning performance: It sharpens the false alarm rate of the warning and the predictive probability of an event, and it increases the average lead time of the warning.     

Influence of aquatic plants on the hydrogen isotope composition of sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes in the Lake Qinghai region,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The hydrogen isotopic composition(δD) of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes(C27, C29, and C31) from lacustrine sediments has been widely applied to reconstruct terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological changes. However, few studies have addressed whether the aquatic-derived n-alkanes can affect the δD values of lake sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes, which are usually regarded as a recorder of the terrestrial hydrological signals. Here we systematically investigated δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from modern aquatic plants, both near-shore and off-shore surface sediments, surrounding terrestrial plant litters, as well as river water and lake water in Lake Qinghai and its satellite lakes on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our data showed that(i) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants varied from-184‰ to-132‰ for n-C27, from-183‰ to-138‰ for n-C29, and from-189‰ to-130‰ for n-C31, respectively, with no significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues;(ii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from aquatic plants were generally more positive than those from surrounding terrestrial plants, possibly because that they recorded the D-enrichment of lake water in this semi-arid region;(iii) δD values of long-chain n-alkanes from surface sediments showed significant differences among the three n-alkanes homologues, due to the larger aquatic input of n-C27 to the sedimentary lipid pool than that of n-C31, and(iv) n-C27 δD values of near-shore aquatic plants and near-shore sediments are more negative than those from off-shore as a result of lower δD values of near-shore lake water. Our findings indicate that in this region(i) the offset between sedimentary n-C27 and n-C31 δD values(ΔδDC27-C31) could potentially be used to evaluate if sedimentary long-chain n-alkanes are derived from a single source;(ii) while δD values of n-C27 may be influenced by lake water hydrological changes, sedimentary n-C31 is derived predominantly from terrestrial plants and thus its δD can serve as a relatively reliable indicator for terrestrial paleoclimatic and paleohydrological reconstructions.