A Review of Research and Development of Wind Energy in Turkey

During the end of the 20^th and the beginning of the 21^st centuries, interest has risen in new and renewable energy sources, and especially wind energy for electricity generation. In a short time, wind energy has been welcomed by society, industry and politicians as a clean, practical, economical and environmentally friendly alternative to existing fossil fuels. As a result of extensive studies on this topic, wind energy has recently been applied in various industries, and has started to compete with other energy resources. Wind energy applications and turbine installations at different scales have increased since the beginning of this millennium. Technically installed wind turbines capacity factors have high values in most areas of Turkey. It is seen that, in general, the modeling of wind speed and its parameters have been studied and researched rather than wind power technological development in Turkey. Wind investors had doubts about uncertainties in the renewable energy policies. After May 2007, an energy efficiency law was accepted and 10 years of electricity generation by renewable sources is considered as guaranteed by the Turkish government. The installed wind power has reached 131.35 MW in Turkey and it is expected that this value will be increased to 808.81 MW by the end of 2008. The dependence of strong technological and economical development on Turkey's energy needs have increased and new national or international sources have to be taken into account for the energy sector of the country. It is clear that this source gap could be filled by using the high potential of wind power, which is estimated at 58 GW. It is expected that installed wind power to supply up to 5% of electricity consumption by 2015 and for the end of 2008 this ratio will increase to 2% (it is currently ca. 1.0%). However, unexpected and unpredicted wind power applications have occurred on November 1^st, 2007 in Turkey. It has been announced that 78,000.00 MW wind power investments have been applied by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA). This is a new era for the Turkish energy sector and there is no model for this new situation. Therefore, in this paper, wind energy in Turkey is reviewed and opened up for further discussion.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy evaluation of wind farm power production as function of wind speed and direction

Wind velocity assumes a critical part for measuring the power created by the wind turbines. Nonetheless, power production from wind has a few weaknesses. One significant issue is that wind is a discontinuous energy source which implies that there exists substantial variability in the generation of vigor because of different variables, for example, wind speed. Wind direction is a significant variable for proficient turbine control for getting the most energy with a given wind speed. Taking into account the conjectures on wind heading, it might be conceivable to adjust the turbine to the wind bearing to get the most energy yield. Since both forecasts of wind speed and direction are basic for effective wind energy collecting it is crucial to develop a methodology for estimation of wind speed and direction and afterwards to estimate wind farm power production as function of wind pace and heading distribution. Despite the fact that various numerical functions have been proposed for demonstrating the wind speed and direction frequency distribution, there are still disadvantages of the models like very demanding in terms of calculation time. In this investigation adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which is a particular sort of the artificial neural networks (ANN) family, was used to anticipate the wind speed and direction frequency dispersion. Thereafter, the ANFIS system was utilized to gauge wind homestead power creation as function of wind velocity and bearing. Neural system in ANFIS modifies parameters of enrollment capacity in the fuzzy logic of the fuzzy inference system. The reenactment outcomes exhibited in this paper demonstrate the adequacy of the created technique.     

新能源发电对电磁观测环境的影响特征—以天津徐庄子台的电磁观测为例

利用天津市徐庄子地震台的电磁观测数据,针对台站周边观测区域内近年来出现的风电和光伏发电设施,通过野外试验测量,从多个角度深入剖析了不同观测环境中电磁观测数据在时间和空间上的变化形态,分别总结了风力发电、光伏发电的建设和运行状态对电磁观测环境干扰的影响特征。结果显示:风力发电机组对电磁观测环境的影响明显小于光伏发电设备,可视为一个干扰点,需规范其与观测设施的距离;若要确保光伏发电设备不影响电磁观测,需要将每个系统视为一个整体,并使二者保持足够大的距离。      

The effect of wind averaging time on wind erosivity estimation

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) and Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) are widely used for estimating wind‐induced soil erosion at a field scale. Wind is the principal erosion driver in the two models. Wind erosivity, which describes the capacity of wind to cause soil erosion, is defined as erosive wind power density (WPD) in WEPS, and wind value (W) in RWEQ. In this study, the daily average WPD (AWPD) and the daily average W (Wf) were chosen to investigate the effect of averaging time on wind erosivity estimation based on observed wind data. We compare the daily AWPD and Wf calculated from 1, 5, 10, 15, 30, and 60 minute average wind speed data. The results of comparisons indicate that averaging wind speed can significantly influence estimates of wind erosivity. Compared with the daily AWPD and Wf calculated from one minute average wind speed data, all daily AWPD and Wf values calculated from 5, 10, 15, 30, and 60 minute averaged wind speeds tend to be significantly lower than values calculated from one minute values. In general, longer averaging times tend to produce smaller values of daily AWPD or Wf, which may lead to an under‐estimation of wind erosion. Further studies are needed to extend and apply the findings obtained in this study to actual wind erosion predictions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seabird aggregative patterns: A new tool for offshore wind energy risk assessment

The emerging development of offshore wind energy has raised public concern over its impact on seabird communities. There is a need for an adequate methodology to determine its potential impacts on seabirds. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are mostly relying on a succession of plain density maps without integrated interpretation of seabird spatio-temporal variability. Using Taylor’s power law coupled with mixed effect models, the spatio-temporal variability of species’ distributions can be synthesized in a measure of the aggregation levels of individuals over time and space. Applying the method to a seabird aerial survey in the Ebro Delta, NW Mediterranean Sea, we were able to make an explicit distinction between transitional and feeding areas to define and map the potential impacts of an offshore wind farm project. We use the Ebro Delta study case to discuss the advantages of potential impacts maps over density maps, as well as to illustrate how these potential impact maps can be applied to inform on concern levels, optimal EIA design and monitoring in the assessment of local offshore wind energy projects.     

海陆风及沿海风速廓线在风电场风速预报中的应用

为了建立沿海风功率预报系统,本文探讨了中国沿海风电场风速预报问题,并利用数值模式RAMS对海陆风进行了模拟研究.发现海陆风发生时,海风和陆风阶段风速廓线存在较大差异,海风阶段风速的垂直切变明显小于陆风阶段.海陆风发生时,风速会呈现有规律的变化,即海风和陆风分别有两个时段：风速增加时段和风速减少时段.在为沿海风电场提供风速预报时,当模式预报到海陆风发生时,可以利用海陆风的这种特点,使用统计方法对预报出的风速进行有效的订正.并发现即使没有海陆风发生,当风向为海洋吹向陆地时,风速随高度的垂直切变同样小于陆地吹向海洋的时段.利用统计方法根据不同风向时风速廓线的特性,把数值模式计算高度上的预报结果,精确地插值到风机涡轮高度,会很大程度上减少风速预报的误差及风功率预报环节的误差.     

Experimental investigation of the velocity of a sand cloud blowing over a sandy surface

The velocity of a wind‐blown sand cloud is important for studying its kinetic energy, related erosion, and control measures. PDA (particle dynamics analyser) measurement technology is used in a wind tunnel to study the probability distribution of particle velocity, variations with height of the mean velocity and particle turbulence in a sand cloud blowing over a sandy surface. The results suggest that the probability distribution of the particle velocity in a blowing sand cloud is stochastic. The probability distribution of the downwind velocity complies with a Gaussian function, while that of the vertical velocity is greatly complicated by grain impact with the bed and particle–particle collisions in the air. The probability distribution of the vertical velocity of ?ne particles (0·1–0·3 mm sands) can be expressed as a Lorentzian function while that of coarse particles (0·3–0·6 mm sands) cannot be expressed by a simple distribution function. The mean downwind velocity is generally one or two orders greater than the mean vertical velocity, but the particle turbulence in the vertical direction is at least two orders greater than that in the downwind direction. In general, the mean downwind velocity increases with height and free‐stream wind velocity, but decreases with grain size. The variation with height of the mean downwind velocity can be expressed by a power function. The particle turbulence of a blowing sand cloud in the downwind direction decreases with height. The variations with height of the mean velocity and particle turbulence in the vertical direction are very complex. It can be concluded that the velocity of a sand cloud blowing over a sandy surface is mainly in?uenced by wind velocity, grain impact with the bed and particle–particle collisions in the air. Wind velocity is the primary factor in?uencing the downwind velocity of a blowing sand cloud, while the grain impact with the bed and particle–particle collisions in the air are the primary factors responsible for the vertical velocity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High‐frequency sediment transport responses on a vegetated foredune

Wind flow and sand transport intensity were measured on the seaward slope of a vegetated foredune during a 16 h storm using an array of sonic anemometers and Wenglor laser particle counters. The foredune had a compound seaward slope with a wave‐cut scarp about 0.5 m high separating the upper vegetated portion from the lower dune ramp, which was bare of vegetation. Wind direction veered from obliquely offshore at the start of the event to obliquely onshore during the storm peak and finally to directly onshore during the final 2 h as wind speed dropped to below threshold. Sand transport was initially inhibited by a brief period of rain at the start of the event but as the surface dried and wind speed increased sand transport was initiated over the entire seaward slope. Transport intensity was quite variable both temporally and spatially on the upper slope as a result of fluctuating wind speed and direction, but overall magnitudes were similar over the whole length. Ten‐minute average transport intensity correlates strongly with mean wind speed measured at the dune crest, and there is also strong correlation between instantaneous wind speed and transport intensity measured at the same locations when the data are smoothed with a 10 s running mean. Transport on the beach for onshore winds is decoupled from that on the seaward slope above the small scarp when the wind angle is highly oblique, but for wind angles <45° from shore perpendicular some sand is transported onto the lower slope. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of topography on wind speed over a coastal dune and blowout system at Jockey's Ridge,NC, USA

This study examines the spatial distribution of wind speed across a coastal dune system located at Jockey's Ridge State Park, North Carolina. The study area consists of a trough blowout through a foredune ridge, and the landforms that have developed behind the foredune. Wind speed and direction were measured simultaneously with single sensors placed at a fixed height in 13 locations across the blowout/dune complex. Fractional wind speed‐up is computed for sampling stations using data from a mast located on the beach as the reference. Results show that wind speeds were generally accelerated across the study site. The highest speeds were recorded on the foredune ridges adjacent to the blowout. Wind was accelerated through the center of the blowout throat and along the downwind lateral wall. Further into the blowout, at the base of the ramp to the depositional lobe, higher wind speeds shifted to the upwind lateral wall and continued to accelerate up the ramp as air exited to the rear. Significant variations in the wind speed‐up pattern were associated with different wind approach angles, with greater speed‐up occurring when the winds were aligned normal to the dune system. The speed‐up decreased as the angle of approach became increasingly oblique to the ridge. The patterns of wind speed‐up across the site point to the influence of topography on airflow. To quantify the relationship, measures of several topographic variables were obtained along sample transects running upwind from each sample station along flow lines representing different wind approach angles. Examination of correlation coefficients between wind speed‐up and topographic variables suggests that for groups of stations with similar topographic characteristics, 30–50% of the variations in speed‐up may be explained by the upwind topographic variability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind

This study develops a probability-based methodology to evaluate dam overtopping probability that accounts for the uncertainties arising from wind speed and peak flood. A wind speed frequency model and flood frequency analysis, including various distribution types and uncertainties in their parameters, are presented. Furthermore, dam overtopping probabilities based on monthly maximum (MMax) series models are compared with those of the annual maximum (AMax) series models. An efficient sampling scheme, which is a combination of importance sampling (IS) and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) methods, is proposed to generate samples of peak flow rate and wind speed especially for rare events. Reservoir routing, which incorporates operation rules, wind setup, and run-up, is used to evaluate dam overtopping probability.     

基于谱修正方法的非高斯风场模拟

为克服基于H erm ite谱修正方法的缺点,减少该方法中计算H erm ite多项式系数所需耗费的大量机时,提出了一种模拟非高斯风压场的新方法,采用非高斯累积分布函数（CDF）映射技术来代替基于H erm ite的概率密度函数（PDF）修正。选择任意边缘PDF模型作为概率目标模型,采用目标功率谱密度（PSD）作为样本函数,通过迭代修正该样本函数,使其收敛于目标概率密度函数和目标功率谱密度。将该方法应用于实际结构的非高斯风场模拟,模拟结果与目标谱符合良好,表明本文方法模拟非高斯风场具有较高的精确度和计算效率。     

Characteristics and occurrence of wind erosion features in the Namib Desert

Small scale features resulting from wind erosion are widespread in the Namib Desert. They include selective erosion of lithological variations (etching), flutes and grooves, facetting of clasts and residual boulders, and smoothing and polishing of rock surfaces. Large scale features are tentatively identified and are restricted to the southern Namib, with its high energy, unidirectional wind regime. Wind erosion features are best developed on fine-grained rocks of intermediate hardness. They are oriented towards or parallel to modern strong winds. The turbulent flow of wind armed only with dust particles is probably more important than wind driven sand in creating smooth polished rock surfaces, flutes, and grooves. Wind driven sand appears to be significant only in facetting rock masses.     

El Niño influence on streamflow forecasting

Stochastic models are often fitted to historical data in order to produce streamflow scenarios. These scenarios are used as input data for simulation/optimization models that support operational decisions for water resource systems. The streamflow scenarios are sampled from probability distributions conditioned on the available information, such as recent streamflow data. In this paper we introduce a procedure for further conditioning the probability distributions by considering the recent measurements of climatic variables, such as sea temperatures, that are used to describe the occurrence of El Ni?o. We adopt an auto-regressive model and use the “El Ni?o information” to refine the parameter estimation process for each time step. The corresponding methodology is tested for the monthly energy time series, “inflowing” to the power plants of Colombia. This is a linear combination of streamflow values for the 18 most important rivers of the country.     

Seasonal variability of SST fronts and winds on the southeastern continental shelf of Brazil

Fourteen years (September 2002 to August 2016) of high-resolution satellite observations of sea surface temperature (SST) data are used to describe the frontal pattern and frontogenesis on the southeastern continental shelf of Brazil. The daily SST fronts are obtained using an edge-detection algorithm, and the monthly frontal probability (FP) is subsequently calculated. High SST FPs are mainly distributed along the coast and decrease with distance from the coastline. The results from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decompositions reveal strong seasonal variability of the coastal SST FP with maximum (minimum) in the astral summer (winter). Wind plays an important role in driving the frontal activities, and high FPs are accompanied by strong alongshore wind stress and wind stress curl. This is particularly true during the summer, when the total transport induced by the alongshore component of upwelling-favorable winds and the wind stress curl reaches the annual maximum. The fronts are influenced by multiple factors other than wind forcing, such as the orientation of the coastline, the seafloor topography, and the meandering of the Brazil Current. As a result, there is a slight difference between the seasonality of the SST fronts and the wind, and their relationship was varying with spatial locations. The impact of the air-sea interaction is further investigated in the frontal zone, and large coupling coefficients are found between the crosswind (downwind) SST gradients and the wind stress curl (divergence). The analysis of the SST fronts and wind leads to a better understanding of the dynamics and frontogenesis off the southeastern continental shelf of Brazil, and the results can be used to further understand the air-sea coupling process at regional level.

     

Small and large scale fluctuations in atmospheric wind speeds

Atmospheric wind speeds and their fluctuations at different locations (onshore and offshore) are examined. One of the most striking features is the marked intermittency of probability density functions (PDF) of velocity differences, no matter what location is considered. The shape of these PDFs is found to be robust over a wide range of scales which seems to contradict the mathematical concept of stability where a Gaussian distribution should be the limiting one. Motivated by the non-stationarity of atmospheric winds it is shown that the intermittent distributions can be understood as a superposition of different subsets of isotropic turbulence. Thus we suggest a simple stochastic model to reproduce the measured statistics of wind speed fluctuations.     

风速风向联合概率密度分布的一种经验函数模型

对风速与风向边缘分布采用统一的极值概型描述,提出了一种可适用于多峰极值以及总体样本的风速风向联合概率分布函数的经验解析表达式。模型包括7个参数,可由实测数据利用非线性最小二乘方法拟合得到。对模型参数拟合时的初值选取方法提出了建议,并对典型的风向双峰值情况,给出了峰向区间的划分方法;利用双峰总体、双峰极值以及单峰极值3种不同类型的实测数据,检验了模型的适用性。结果表明,该模型可以较好地描述不同类型总体样本或极值样本的风速风向联合概率密度特性,可供风向设计风速的确定、风速评估及场地风能评估等工程问题参考。     

Aeolian sand transport at the Lanphere Dunes,Northern California

Aeolian sand transport was studied at the Lanphere Dunes, a coastal dune complex in northern California, by comparing slipface advance rates with transport predicted based on local wind data. The slipfaces of a 2·5 m high transverse ridge and 10 m high parabolic dune were monitored over a period of three months to estimate sand discharge. The study was performed during the dry season, which has the maximum sand‐driving potential. Over the three month study period, average sand discharge was 12·5 m³ per m width per year at the transverse ridge and 8·8 m³ per m width per year at the parabolic dune. A method was developed for modelling slipfaces that are sinuous and where sediment transport rates are not constant across the width of the slipface. Field measurements were used to generate three‐dimensional representations of dune slipfaces. Periodic measurements over the course of three months were used to compute the volume of displaced sediment. Theoretical sand transport was computed from local wind data using the Bagnold model and compared with the observed transport rates. Predicted rates were substantially lower than observed rates. Wind velocities rarely exceeded the threshold velocity. Discrepancies between the observed and predicted values appear to be caused by a combination of wind data recording procedures and differences between wind velocities at the anemometer location and the site where sand transport was measured. Wind data collected by weather bureaux have been utilized in numerous studies for modelling sediment transport. Such data typically have sample intervals of one hour or greater and are often averaged prior to reporting. The effect of averaging was investigated by comparing sand transport estimates based on daily average wind velocities with those based on the original hourly observations. The daily average data were depleted of high velocity winds and sand transport estimates were accordingly much lower than those based on the hourly data. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical study of circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the Bras d’Or Lakes

The Bras d’Or Lakes (BdOL) are a large, complex and virtually land-locked estuary in central Cape Breton Island of Nova Scotia and one of Canada’s charismatic ecosystems, sustaining ecological and cultural communities unique in many aspects. The BdOL comprise two major basins, many deep and shallow bays, several narrow channels and straits and a large, geologically complex watershed. Predictive knowledge of the water movement within the estuary is a key requirement for effective management and sustainable development of the BdOL ecosystem. A three-dimensional (3D) primitive-equation ocean circulation model is used to examine the estuary’s response to tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with freshwater runoff in a series of numerical experiments validated with empirical data. The model results generate intense, jet-like tidal flows of about 1 m s^?1 in the channels between the basins and connecting them to the ocean and relatively weak tidal currents in other regions, which agrees well with previous observations and numerical results. Wind forcing and buoyancy forcing associated with river runoff play important roles in generating the significant sub-tidal circulations in the estuary, including narrow channels, deep basins and shallow bays. The circulation model is also used to reconstruct the 3D circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the summer months of 1974, when current and hydrographic measurements were made at several locations. The sub-tidal circulation in the estuary produced by the model is characterised by wind and barometric set-up and set-down in different sections of the system, and a classic two-layer estuarine circulation in which brackish, near-surface waters flow seaward from the estuary into the Atlantic Ocean, and deep salty waters flow landward through the major channel. The model results reproduce reasonably well the overall features of observed circulation and temperature-salinity fields made in the BdOL in 1974 but generally underestimate the observed currents and density stratification. The model discrepancies reflect the use of spatially mean wind forcing and spatially and monthly mean surface heat flux and the inability of the coarse model horizontal resolution (～500 m) to resolve narrow channels and straits.     

Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data

Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology.     

90°螺旋型和方形截面高层建筑气弹效应对比研究

设计并制作了动力特性基本一致的90°螺旋型和方形截面高层建筑的多自由度气弹模型,对气弹模型进行了风洞试验。运用随机减量法识别了顺、横风向以及多风向角下的气动阻尼;对出现了"拍"现象的工况采用小波方法解耦模态后再进行气动阻尼识别。风洞试验结果表明,方形截面高层建筑顺、横风向气动阻尼比随折算风速的变化规律与相关研究结果类似;螺旋型高层建筑顺风向气动阻尼比随折算风速的变化规律与方形截面高层建筑较为接近,在高折算风速段的阻尼比值相比方形截面高层建筑偏小,横风向气动阻尼比在低折算风速段微弱上升,随后下降,在0值附近波动。对多个风向角的加速度响应进行研究,螺旋型高层建筑均表现出良好的气动性能,尤其在横风向折算风速为12.43时,其加速度均方根为方形截面高层建筑的25.48%。