Hydrological and associated pollution load simulation and estimation for the Three Gorges Reservoir of China

This study demonstrates an integrated study by coupling a NPS pollution load estimation sub-model with a distributed hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes and associated pollution load processes in the Three Gorges (TG) Reservoir which is the largest water conservancy project in China, and further estimates the pollution loads and their responses to rainfall changes. The distributed hydrological model Easy Distributed Hydrological Model (EasyDHM) is featured as containing easy rain-runoff generation processes, comprehensive pre-process and post-process modules. Based on EasyDHM, this study develops a NPS pollution load estimation sub-model Easy Distributed Non-Point source evaluation sub-model taking both point source (PS) and NPS pollution into consideration. Through the application of the models in the TG area, this study clarifies the mechanism and characteristics of NPS pollution and estimates the pollution loads in the region. This study could provide technical support for the establishment of Best Management Practices for NPS pollution in the region, and references for the government during the processes of formulating and implementing decision-makings on pollution control and comprehensive management in the TG area.     

Discharge and nutrient uncertainty: implications for nutrient flux estimation in small streams

The measurement of discharge is fundamental in nutrient load estimation. Because of our ability to monitor discharge routinely, it is generally assumed that the associated uncertainty is low. This paper challenges this preconception, arguing that discharge uncertainty should be explicitly taken into account to produce robust statistical analyses. In many studies, paired discharge and chemical datasets are used to calculate ‘true’ loads and used as the benchmark to compare with other load estimates. This paper uses two years of high frequency (daily and sub‐hourly) discharge and nutrient concentration data (nitrate‐N and total phosphorus (TP)) collected at four field sites as part of the Hampshire Avon Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) programme. A framework for estimating observational nutrient load uncertainty was used which combined a flexible non‐parametric approach to characterising discharge uncertainty, with error modelling that allowed the incorporation of errors which were heteroscedastic and temporally correlated. The results showed that the stage–discharge relationships were non‐stationary, and observational uncertainties from ±2 to 25% were recorded when the velocity–area method was used. The variability in nutrient load estimates ranged from 1.1 to 9.9% for nitrate‐N and from 3.3 to 10% for TP when daily laboratory data were used, rising to a maximum of 9% for nitrate‐N and 83% for TP when the sensor data were used. However, the sensor data provided a better representation of the ‘true’ load as storm events are better represented temporally, posing the question: is it more beneficial to have high frequency, lower precision data or lower frequency but higher precision data streams to estimate nutrient flux responses in headwater catchments? Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The composite method: an improved method for stream‐water solute load estimation

The composite method is an alternative method for estimating stream‐water solute loads, combining aspects of two commonly used methods: the regression‐model method (which is used by the composite method to predict variations in concentrations between collected samples) and a period‐weighted approach (which is used by the composite method to apply the residual concentrations from the regression model over time). The extensive dataset collected at the outlet of the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW) near Atlanta, Georgia, USA, was used in data analyses for illustrative purposes. A bootstrap (subsampling) experiment (using the composite method and the PMRW dataset along with various fixed‐interval and large storm sampling schemes) obtained load estimates for the 8‐year study period with a magnitude of the bias of less than 1%, even for estimates that included the fewest number of samples. Precisions were always <2% on a study period and annual basis, and <2% precisions were obtained for quarterly and monthly time intervals for estimates that had better sampling. The bias and precision of composite‐method load estimates varies depending on the variability in the regression‐model residuals, how residuals systematically deviated from the regression model over time, sampling design, and the time interval of the load estimate. The regression‐model method did not estimate loads precisely during shorter time intervals, from annually to monthly, because the model could not explain short‐term patterns in the observed concentrations. Load estimates using the period‐weighted approach typically are biased as a result of sampling distribution and are accurate only with extensive sampling. The formulation of the composite method facilitates exploration of patterns (trends) contained in the unmodelled portion of the load. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards multiple hazard resilient bridges: a methodology for modeling frequent and infrequent time-varying loads Part I, Comprehensive reliability and partial failure probabilities

The current AASHTO load and resistance factor design (LRFD) guidelines are formulated based on bridge reliability,which interprets traditional design safety factors into more rigorously deduced factors based on the theory of probability.This is a major advancement in bridge design specifications.However,LRFD is only calibrated for dead and live loads.In cases when extreme loads are significant,they need to be individually assessed.Combining regular loads with extreme loads has been a major challenge,mainly because the extreme loads are time variables and cannot be directly combined with time invariant loads to formulate the probability of structural failure.To overcome these difficulties,this paper suggests a methodology of comprehensive reliability,by introducing the concept of partial failure probability to separate the loads so that each individual load combination under a certain condition can be approximated as time invariant.Based on these conditions,the extreme loads (also referred to as multiple hazard or MH loads) can be broken down into single effects.In Part Ⅱ of this paper,a further breakdown of these conditional occurrence probabilities into pure conditions is discussed by using a live truck and earthquake loads on a bridge as an example.There are three major steps in establishing load factors from MH load distributions:(1) formulate the failure probabilities;(2) normalize various load distributions;and (3) establish design limit state equations.This paper describes the formulation of the failure probabilities of single and combined loads.     

Accuracy and precision of methods for estimating river loads

River loads often have to be estimated from continuous discharge data but relatively infrequent sampling of sediment, solute, or pollutant concentrations. Two standard ways of doing this are to multiply mean concentration by mean discharge, and to use a rating curve to predict unmeasured concentrations. Both methods are known from previous empirical studies to underestimate true load. Statistical considerations explain these biases and yield correction factors which can be used to obtain unbiased estimates of load. Simulation experiments with normally-distributed scatter about log-linear trends, and sampling experiments using a natural data set, show that the corrected rating curve method has lower sampling variability than other unbiased methods based on average instantaneous load and is thus the recommended procedure when the rating plot is of the assumed form. The precision of all methods increases with sample size and decreases with increasing rating-curve slope and scatter.     

Towards multiple hazard resilient bridges: a methodology for modeling frequent and infrequent time-varying loads Part II, Examples for live and earthquake load effects

The current AASHTO load and resistance factor design (LRFD) guidelines are formulated based on bridge reliability,which interprets traditional design safety factors into more rigorously deduced factors based on the theory of probability.This is a major advancement in bridge design specifications.However,LRFD is only calibrated for dead and live loads.In cases when extreme loads are significant,they need to be individually assessed.Combining regular loads with extreme loads has been a major challenge,mainly because the extreme loads are time variable and cannot be directly combined with time invariant loads to formulate the probability of structural failure.To overcome these difficulties,this paper suggests a methodology of comprehensive reliability,by introducing the concept of partial failure probability to separate the loads so that each individual load combination under a certain condition can be approximated as time invariant.Based on these conditions,the extreme loads (also referred to as multiple hazard or MH loads) can be broken down into single effects.In this paper,a further breakdown of these conditional occurrence probabilities into pure conditions is discussed by using a live truck and earthquake loads on a bridge as an example.     

Estimating stream solute loads from fixed frequency sampling regimes: the importance of considering multiple solutes and seasonal fluxes in the design of long‐term stream monitoring networks

Reduced sampling frequency is known to increase the error associated with estimates of stream solute load. However, the extent to which the magnitude of error differs among commonly measured solutes and across seasons is unclear. In this study, a high sampling frequency data set from two forested streams (one upland‐draining and one wetland‐draining stream) in south‐central Ontario was systematically sub‐sampled to simulate weekly, fortnightly and monthly fixed frequency sampling regimes for 12 stream solutes. We found that solutes which had a higher degree of temporal variation in concentration (i.e. higher %RSD) had poorer precision (C_v) in estimates of annual load relative to solutes with a lower %RSD. In addition, the magnitude and direction of bias varied considerably among solutes and were related to differences in spring concentration‐discharge relationships (m_{[spring Q vs C]}) among the 12 solutes. Solutes which decreased in concentration with increases in spring flow (i.e. m_{[spring Q vs C]} <0) exhibited positive bias in annual load while solutes which increased in concentration with increases in spring flow (i.e. m_{[spring Q vs C]} >0) were negatively biased. In terms of differences between seasonal and annual load errors, precision was generally lower for estimates of seasonal load relative to annual load while bias varied in both magnitude and direction among seasons. When the root mean square error (RMSE) of load estimates was compared to a threshold of acceptable error (<15%), the proportion of solutes attaining acceptable levels of uncertainty ranged from 11/12 for annual load estimates at a weekly sampling frequency to only 4/12 at a monthly frequency when both annual and seasonal loads were considered. Our results demonstrate that commonly measured solutes do not behave uniformly in response to changes in sampling frequency and that estimates of seasonal loads are often less accurate than estimates of annual load. These findings provide important insights into the design of stream monitoring programs and the evaluation of existing long‐term data sets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of meiobenthic nematode diversity by non-specialists

A methodology is presented for the estimation of nematode diversity using Cairns' technique of sequential comparisons. The accuracy and precision of the method are examined and a test presented for the comparison of diversity estimates.     

Practical flood frequency estimates

The best information on which to base estimates of future flood frequencies is records of past flood events. Where there is a substantial record at the location for which estimates are desired the estimation process is generally straighforward, although a variety of methods is used and there is major uncertainty in the estimates. In general, the frequency of future events is assumed to be indicated by the observed frequency of past events under constant controlling watershed conditions.Techniques are available for using information on historical (pre-record) flood data to improve the reliability of flood frequency estimates. There are methods for detecting and managing extremely unusual actual events (outliers) and for improving the reliability of short-record estimates based on long-record data at related locations. Regional correlation analysis is usable for establishing flood frequency estimates for locations where records are not available.Detailed hydrologic analysis, usually involving rainfall-runoff studies, is required for establishing flood frequency relationships for modified conditions of the watershed or, in many cases, for establishing flood frequency estimates for newly formed drainage systems such as in urban areas and airports.The principal use of flood frequency functions is to compare expected changes in flood damages (due to a contemplated action) with the economic and social costs or benefits of the contemplated action.     

Uniform reliability safety format for seismic design of reinforced concrete structures

A safety format is proposed for the flexural design of reinforced concrete members for the combination of seismic and gravity loads, with load and resistance factors which depend on member type, on the value of the target theoretical probability of failure and on the ratio of the load effect due to gravity loads to that due to the nominal value of the seismic action, both obtained by elastic analysis. Safety factors are computed through an advanced Level II reliability procedure, using a limit state inequality between the member rotation ductility supply under monotonic loading and the peak rotation ductility and cyclic energy dissipation demands. Uncertainties considered are: for resistance, the uncertainty of failure under imposed cyclic deformations, and for action, the maximum peak ductility and energy dissipation demands in the structure's lifetime, as obtained through a series of non-linear dynamic analyses of multistorey buildings in 3D. using as input ensembles of bidirectional acceleration time-histories which describe probabilistically the extreme bidirectional seismic action in the structure's lifetime. Computed load and resistance factors are practically independent of the load-effects ratio. The load factor on the seismic action is found to be independent of member type and to increase with the theoretical probability of failure much faster than the elastic spectral value at the structure's fundamental period with probability of exceedance in the structure's lifetime. Simple rules for the dependence of the resistance modification factors on the theoretical failure probability are also derived. As for the computed values of the load factors the moment due to gravity loads is negligible in comparison to the factored seismic moment, a simplified safety checking inequality between the design flexural capacity and a reduced seismic moment is proposed, in which the ratio of the resistance to the load factor plays the role of a force reduction or effective behaviour factor for the member.     

微分求积法在结构动力分析中的应用

微分求积法（DQM）是1种求解微分方程初（边）值问题的数值方法,通常以较小的计算工作量即可获得较高的数值精度。这种方法应用于工程领域时多用来解决梁、板等结构的静力分析或结构特征值分析等问题,即对边值问题的微分方程的求解。结构动力分析属于初值问题,荷载和结构反应都具有特殊性,直接套用DQM求解边值问题并不能获得问题的解。本文尝试利用微分求积原理建立求解结构动力反应的具体方法。借鉴单元法的思想,将荷载持时划分为若干个时步,在每个时步内对动态荷载和结构反应进行离散,然后用DQM对时步逐个进行求解,得到体系在整个时域内的反应过程。通过对3种不同自振周期的线弹性单自由度体系在不同频率简谐激励下反应的计算,阐释了本文方法的可行性以及高精度、高效率的特点,通过数值试验确定了时步内相对较优的节点数,并为时步长度的选取提供了建议。     

Kriging in the hydrosciences

Most of the methods currently used in hydrosciences for interpolation and spatial averaging fail to quantify the accuracy of the estimates.The theory of regionalized variables enables one to point out the relationship between the spatial correlation of hydrometeorological or hydrogeological fields and the precision of interpolation, or determination of average values, over these fields.A new estimation method called kriging has proven to be quite well adapted to solving water resources problems. The author presents a series of case-studies in automatic contouring, data input for numerical models, estimation of average precipitation over a given catchment area, and measurement network design.     

Estimation of phosphorus loads with sparse data for agricultural watersheds in the Czech Republic

Abstract

Agricultural watersheds in the Czech Republic are one of the primary sources of non-point-source phosphorus (P) loads in receiving waters. Since such non-point sources are generally located in headwater catchments, streamflow and P concentration data are sparse. We show how very short daily streamflow and P concentration records can be combined with nearby longer existing daily streamflow records to result in reliable estimates of daily and annual P concentrations and loads. Maintenance of variance streamflow record extension methods (MOVE) can be employed to extend short streamflow records. Constituent load regressions are used to predict daily P constituent loads from streamflow and other time varying characteristics. Annual P loads are then estimated for individual watersheds. Resulting annual P load estimates ranged from 0.21 to 95.4 kg year^-1 with a mean value of 11.77 kg year^-1. Similarly annual P yield estimates ranged from 0.01 to 0.3 kg ha^-1 year^-1 with an average yield of 0.07 kg ha^-1 year^-1. We document how short records of daily streamflow and P concentrations can be combined with a national network of daily streamflow records in the Czech Republic to arrive at meaningful and reliable estimates of annual P loads for small agricultural watersheds.

Citation Beránková, T., Vogel, R. M., Fiala, D. & Rosendorf, P. (2010) Estimation of phosphorus loads with sparse data for agricultural watersheds in the Czech Republic. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1417–1426.     

Towards ecologically relevant targets for river pollutant loads to the Great Barrier Reef

Degradation of coastal ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, has been linked with a decline in water quality from land-based runoff. This paper examines the reduction in current end-of-catchment loads required for total suspended solids (TSS) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to achieve GBR water quality guidelines. Based on first-order estimates of sustainable pollutant loads, current TSS and DIN loads would need to be reduced by approximately 7000ktons/y (41%) and 6000tons/y (38%), respectively. Next, these estimated reductions for TSS and DIN are compared with Reef Plan targets for anthropogenic sediment (-20% by 2020) and nitrogen (-50% by 2013) loads. If successful, these targets will accomplish approximately 40% of TSS and 92% of DIN load reductions required to achieve sustainable loads to the GBR lagoon. These first-order estimates elucidate the need to establish ecologically relevant targets for river pollutant loads to the GBR for management and policy.     

River loads of suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus and herbicides delivered to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon

Degradation of coastal ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon, Australia, has been linked with increased land-based runoff of suspended solids, nutrients and pesticides since European settlement. This study estimated the increase in river loads for all 35 GBR basins, using the best available estimates of pre-European and current loads derived from catchment modelling and monitoring. The mean-annual load to the GBR lagoon for (i) total suspended solids has increased by 5.5 times to 17,000ktonnes/year, (ii) total nitrogen by 5.7 times to 80,000tonnes/year, (iii) total phosphorus by 8.9 times to 16,000tonnes/year, and (iv) PSII herbicides is 30,000kg/year. The increases in river loads differ across the 10 pollutants and 35 basins examined, reflecting differences in surface runoff, urbanisation, deforestation, agricultural practices, mining and retention by reservoirs. These estimates will facilitate target setting for water quality and desired ecosystem states, and enable prioritisation of critical sources for management.     

A heat perturbation flow meter for application in soft sediments

A prototype flow meter has been developed, based upon the heat perturbation principle, to monitor groundwater specific discharge in soft sediments. The device is designed for use in spatially intensive, long-term monitoring campaigns in remote or inconvenient locations, and is cheap, robust and capable of being logged automatically. The results of the laboratory tests indicate that the heat perturbation principle is suitable for determining the magnitude of specific discharge to a degree of accuracy that would be useful in practical applications in dynamic groundwater systems with rapidly changing flows of approximately 1 md⁻¹ or more and that the groundwater flow direction can generally be determined to a high level of precision. The accuracy and reliability of the estimates of specific discharge have been shown to depend strongly upon the geometrical precision of manufacture and the quality of the temperature monitoring system. These factors become most significant in the estimation of lower flows and further investigation is required to determine the detection limit of the device. Specific discharge estimates have been shown to be insensitive to dispersivity values appropriate to the scale of the device. Unlike the majority of heat perturbation devices, calibration is unnecessary.     

双向地震荷载下崩塌堆积体盲数稳定可靠性分析

为了能考虑地震双向性和岩土体参数多种不确定性,提出了地震荷载下崩塌堆积体稳定可靠性分析方法,进一步研究水平和竖向地震荷载对崩塌堆积体的可靠性影响.运用极限平衡法和拟静力法分析了双向地震下崩塌堆积体的安全稳定性,采用响应面法和JC法建立崩塌堆积体的地震极限状态方程,然后,运用盲数理论对岩土体参数进行盲数化处理,进一步推导...     

Analytics study on the problem of two holes having arbitrary shapes and arrangements in plane elastostatics

By using Schwarz alternating method, this paper presents a simplified alternating algorithm for the problems of two holes having arbitrary shapes and arrangements in an isotropic homogeneous linear elastic infinite region, and obtains stress and displacement fields for random times of iteration. After precision analysis it is found that the results for twenty times of iteration are of very high precision, and those with higher precision can be acquired if the iteration solving is further conducted. The comparison of the results from FEM further proves the reliability of the simplified alternating algorithm presented by this paper.     

波浪荷载作用下软黏土软化模型研究

波浪荷载能引起海床土体的主应力轴连续旋转。不同于地震、交通等循环荷载,在周期性波浪荷载作用的土体应力路径方式下,软黏土的软化效用更为明显。本文分别对天然和扰动的海床土体在波浪荷载作用下的应力响应进行模拟,并分析应力路径的特点;为描述软化后的应力-应变关系,将软化效用和累积塑性应变的参数引入到能够反应土体动力非线性的Hardin-Drnevich模型中,建立修正模型,使之能够反应软黏土体软化与塑性应变累计特性;通过与模拟波浪荷载下土体应力特征的循环耦合试验结果进行对比分析,验证该修正模型的可靠性。