关于非政府间国际气候变化专门委员会（NIPCC）报告

NIPCC报告是一份与IPCC针锋相对的报告,报告主要想证明：是自然原因,而不是人类活动造成了全球变暖。本文的目的不是支持NIPCC的观点,而是要分析报告中提出来的各种问题与证据,看看在研究气候变暖时值得注意的事项。兼听则明,偏听则暗。认真听取不同的声音比单边主义更能推动科学的发展。在简要介绍了NIPCC报告的主要内容后,又讲述了代表IPCC观点的"哥本哈根诊断"的核心思想,以供读者自己作出判断。     

气候变化专门评估机构——IPCC发展历程

<正>一、IPCC的诞生及工作机制1. IPCC的成立背景、目的在人类活动已经对复杂的全球气候系统产生干扰的背景下,决策者们需要有关气候变化成因、潜在环境和社会影响,以及可能的对策等的客观信息来源。基于此,联合国环境规划署(UNEP)和世界气象组织(WMO)于1988年建立了政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC),专职负责气候变化评估工作。IPCC的目的即是为世界提供一个关于气候变化现状及其影响、应对的科学视角。需要指出的是,     

《气候变化研究进展》第一届编辑委员会

曹.，，口润委员(以姓氏笔百为序)叶茸正中国科学院大气物理研究所l以X)80任阵海中国环境科学研究院】O以〕12刘东生中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所10(犯29刘昌明中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所100101孙枢中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所10(X)29阳.欣经济委员会100732会1(拟〕85谕、粗膝再军孙鸿烈中国科学院地理衅与争源限安芷生中国科学学研究院100081寒区旱区环境与工程研究所730仪旧寒区旱区环境与工程研究所730(刃0件中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心100732李小文北京师范大学主编秦大河中日气象局1以犯81盛主编(以姓氏笔画为序)…     

《气候变化研究进展》第一届编辑委员会

顾问委员(以姓氏笔画为序) 叶笃正 中国科学院大气物理研究所100080 任阵海 中国环境科学研究院100012 刘东生 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所100029 刘昌明 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所100101 孙枢 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所100029 孙鸿烈 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所100101 安芷生 中国科学院地球环境研究所710075 李小文北京师范大学遥感与地理学院100875     

Context and Early Origins of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate change is a problem which is global both in terms of causes and consequences. The uncertainties are large and likely to persist. Meanwhile, the political and economic stakes of both action and inaction are much higher than those in other transboundary concerns such as acid rain and ozone depletion. The public policy impact of scientific opinions on climate change, therefore, not only depends upon what is being said, but also, who is advancing those conclusions and how they were arrived at. This was the rationale behind the setting up of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The paper examines the IPCC in the context of prior assessment efforts. It attempts to unravel the processes which caused the IPCC to be set up when it was and how it was, as opposed to different times and different forms.     

Structural and Process History of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

In the nine years since its establishment in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has attempted to walk the tightrope of being scientifically sound and politically acceptable. This paper investigates how the IPCC has evolved over two assessment cycles. It provides an in-depth examination of important characteristics of the IPCC process including the peer review mechanism, participation of developing countries, and its interactions with the intergovernmental negotiation process on climate change.     

Who participates in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and why: A quantitative assessment of the national representation of authors in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of international representation in the activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using expert authorship counts by country in each of the four IPCC assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007). Overall, we find that 45% of countries, all Non-Annex 1, have never had authors participate in the IPCC process; on the other hand, European and North American experts are make up more than 75% of all authors (N = 4394). Generalized linear models using negative binomial regression were used to quantitatively estimate the effect of a number of socio-economic, environmental and procedural factors influencing country-level participation in the IPCC. Per capita gross domestic product, population, English-speaking status, and levels of tertiary education were all found to be statistically significant drivers of authorship counts. In particular, participation by authors from English-speaking Non-Annex 1 countries is 2.5 times greater than those that are non-English speaking. Regionally small island nations of Oceania were the most severely under-represented group. South American and Asian countries had fewer authors, and African countries had more authors than what might be expected on the basis of demographic and socio-economic data. These differences across nations partly reflect existing scientific capacity that will be slow to change. However, the on-going under-representation of developing country scientists in the IPCC, particularly in the assessment of climate science (WGI) and climate mitigation (WGIII) warrants greater efforts to close the capacity gap.     

广东气候变化评估报告(节选)

IPCC第4次报告指出:近100年全球平均气温升高了0.74℃,最近50年有加速之势,而且很可能主要由人类活动引起;预计21世纪,全球仍将表现为明显的增温,极端天气气候事件及其引发的气象灾害可能更加严重。近50年,广东气温升高与全球平均水平相当,其中珠江三角洲地区是主要增温区域,其次是东南部沿海地区。预计广东在2011~2040年、2041~2070年和2071~2100年的年平均气温可能分别升高约1.0、1.9和2.8℃。在全球变暖的背景下,广东地区气候变化的特征主要表现在:降水变率加大,旱涝灾害频繁;登陆台风的个数减少,初台登陆时间异常;高温日数增加,高温酷热、热浪愈发频繁;低温日数减少,暖冬突出;极端最低气温变化不稳定性增加,寒冷灾害加重;灰霾天气增多,日照时数减少;极端天气气候事件及其引发的气象灾害造成的经济损失显著增大。广东近50年的增暖在很大程度上可能归因于温室气体浓度增加造成的温室效应,这种温室效应已经对增暖做出了实质性的贡献;城市化导致的热岛效应加剧了局部地区的气温上升。气候变暖既有负面影响也有正面影响,但负面影响可能超过正面影响。气候变暖将导致海平面上升,继而可能对广东沿海低洼地区带来严重的负面影响。在过去近100年全球海平面上升约10~20 cm,广东海平面上升速率为1.7 mm/年,海平面上升会使海岸侵蚀加重,咸潮海水入侵加剧;温度上升可能使广东近海珊瑚礁生态系统退化,且变得更加脆弱;珠江口的咸潮上溯的现象可能更加频繁;广东沿海的赤潮可能更加频发。气候变暖将导致农业生产的不稳定性增加,产量波动大,农业成本和投资将增加。此外,气候变化对我省国民经济的一些方面(如水资源、人类健康、人类居住环境、保险和其它金融业)的影响可能以负面为主。为适应和减缓气候变化的影响,建议:通过节能降耗,减缓温室气体排放;采取措施,适应已经发生了变化的气候;提高对气候系统的监测能力;加强气候变化领域的科学研究、适应对策研究及技术开发;在经济社会发展规划中统筹考虑应对气候变化问题;提高公众的气候保护意识;加大资金投入;积极开展合作与交流。     

Temperature Extremes from Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) Climate Change Projections

Future climate projections of extreme events can help forewarn society of high-impact events and allow the development of better adaptation strategies. In this study a non-stationary model for Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions is used to analyze the trend in extreme temperatures in the context of a changing climate and compare it with the trend in average temperatures.

The analysis is performed using the climate projections of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), under an IPCC SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, over North America. Annual extremes in daily minimum and maximum temperatures are analyzed. Significant positive trends for the location parameter of the GEV distribution are found, indicating an expected increase in extreme temperature values. The scale parameter of the GEV distribution, on the other hand, reveals a decrease in the variability of temperature extremes in some continental regions. Trends in the annual minimum and maximum temperatures are compared with trends in average winter and summer temperatures, respectively. In some regions, extreme temperatures exhibit a significantly larger increase than the seasonal average temperatures.

The CRCM projections are compared with those of its driving model and framed in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Model projections. This enables us to establish the CRCM position within the CMIP3 climate projection uncertainty range. The CRCM is validated against the HadEX2 dataset in order to assess the CRCM representation of temperature extremes in the present climate. The validation is also framed in the context of CMIP3 validation results. The CRCM cold extremes validate better and are closer to the driving model and CMIP3 projections than the hot extremes.     

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应

Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the adverse impact, therefore such measures should be incorporated into the medium-and long-term national economic and social development plans. Because China has done relatively limited research on impact assessment and our understanding of climate change is incomplete, the current impact assessment methodologies used and results obtained contain many uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties and develop effective and practical climate change adaptive measures in China, it is necessary to emphasize regional case studies on adaptive measures, enlarge the scope of climate change research, and strengthen the assessment of the impacts resulted from extreme weather/climate events.     

气候变化国家评估报告（II）：气候变化的影响与适应

已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主,未来的气候变暖将会对中国的生态系统、农业以及水资源等部门和沿海地区产生重大的不利影响。采取适应措施可以减轻气候变化的不利影响,应将适应气候变化的行动逐步纳入国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划中。由于我国科学研究的相对不足和科学认识能力的局限,目前的气候变化影响评估方法和结果还存在很大的不确定性。应当加强区域适应气候变化的案例研究、扩大研究领域、加强极端天气、气候事件影响的研究,以降低影响评估的不确定性,并提出切实可行的适应对策。     

Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.     

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势

The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, though there still exist some significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface air temperature in the country as a whole has significantly increased for the past 50 years and 100 years, with the range of temperature increase slightly greater than that in the globe. The change in precipitation trends for the last 50 and 100 years was not significant, but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also undergone a significant change. The researches show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is probably responsible for the country-wide climate warming for the past 100 years, especially for the past 50 years. The projections of climate change for the 21st century using global and regional climate models indicate that, in the future 20-100 years, the surface air temperature will continue to increase and the annual precipitation also has an increasing trend for most parts of the country.