Probabilistic ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments from China’s major aquatic bodies

An overall and comparative ecological risk assessment of heavy metals (including Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn, Hg and As) in surface sediments from China’s eight major aquatic bodies was conducted to better understand their potential risks on a national scale. By applying the joint approach of Hakanson risk index (RI) and Monte Carlo simulation, ecological risk in this work is expressed as probability distribution of RI values instead of single point calculations to reflect the uncertainties in risk assessment process. The results show that the highest ecological risks posed by heavy metals existed in Xiangjiang River and Dianchi Lake. Although only a slim margin of high risk (651.88/600 = 1.08 and 700.61/600 = 1.17) was identified based on average RI values, the probabilities of high risk level derived from Monte Carlo simulation reached as high as 56.7 and 52.9 % in these two aquatic bodies, respectively. And the probability of low risk level was less than 1.6 %. Furthermore, the risk was mainly contributed by Hg and Cd, discharged through local intensive mining and industrial activities. The findings indicate that rigid control and effective management measures to prevent heavy metal pollution are urgently needed in China, especially for the high-risk aquatic bodies. This study shows that the joint approach can be used to identify the high risk water bodies and the major metal pollutants. It may avoid overestimating or underestimating the ecological risk and provide more decision-making support for risk alleviation in the polluted aquatic bodies.     

Assessment of future water resources and water scarcity considering the factors of climate change and social–environmental change in Han River basin,Korea

Water resources are influenced by various factors such as weather, topography, geology, and environment. Therefore, there are many difficulties in evaluating and analyzing water resources for the future under climate change. In this paper, we consider climate, land cover and water demand as the most critical factors affecting change in future water resources. We subsequently introduce the procedures and methods employed to quantitatively evaluate the influence of each factor on the change in future water resources. In order to consider the change in land cover, we apply the Multi-Regression approach from the cellular automata-Markov Chain technique using two independent variables, temperature and rainfall. In order to estimate the variation of the future runoff due to climate change, the data of the SRES A2 climate change scenario were entered in the SLURP model to simulate a total of 70 years, 2021–2090, of future runoff in the Han River basin in Korea. However, since a significant amount of uncertainties are involved in predicting the future runoff due to climate change, 50 sets of daily precipitation data from the climate change scenario were generated and used for the SLURP model to forecast 50 sets of future daily runoff. This process was used to minimize the uncertainty that may occur when the prediction process is performed. For future water balance analysis, the future water demand was divided into low demand, medium demand and high demand categories. The three water demand scenarios and the 50 daily runoff scenarios were combined to form 150 sets of input data. The monthly water balance within the Han River basin was then calculated using this data and the Korean version of Water Evaluation and Planning System model. As a result, the future volume of water scarcity of the Han River basin was predicted to increase in the long term. It is mostly due to the monthly shift in the runoff characteristic, rather than the change in runoff volume resulting from climate change.     

Accumulated impact assessment of river buffer zone after 30 years of dam disturbance in the Yellow River Basin

As the buffer zone is the bridge between the river and surrounding territory, it experiences remarkable response to hydrological variance due to dam construction. To identify the accumulated impacts, two adjacent buffer zone sections of similar size on the Yellow River were compared. A time series of land cover distributions were analysed for changes of the buffer zones. After the dam service, a large area of wetlands and water area disappeared in the section with dam, which was also the consequence of the sedimentation in the reservoir. The areal extent for seven types of land cover was analysed in the buffer zone at distances of 10 and 5.5 km from the river. The land cover transition matrices within the 10 km zone for three time periods (1976–1996) were calculated to further clarify the transformation process. The farmland in the 10 km zone of dam increased 3 times in three decades, but it just rose the 50 % in the zone without dam. The land cover transition matrices analysis indicated that the major transitions in the dammed section were wetland, grassland and water area to farmland, as well as the mutual transformation of water area and wetlands. Two sections of the critical buffer zone within 5.5 km of the water were delineated into ten independent, 0.5 km annular gradient zones to determine the spatial variation of grassland, water area and wetland. The gradient zone analysis demonstrated that the dam construction accelerated the appearance of wetlands and also caused considerable pressure on the water and grassland area types. Upon comparing these temporal and spatial aspects, the increase of farmlands and wetlands in the earliest period was found to be the direct result of damming. The weakening hydrological alteration due to damming was concluded to significantly affect the temporal-spatial variations of the river buffer zone, particularly in the 5.5 km distance.     

Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin,China

Abstract

To explore the spatial and temporal variations of the reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref) is helpful to understand the response of hydrological processes to climate changes. In this study, ET_ref was calculated by the Penman-Monteith method (P-M method) using air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine hours at 89 meteorological stations during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. The spatial distribution and temporal variations of ET_ref were explored by means of the kriging method, the Mann-Kendall (M-K) method and the linear regression model, and the causes for the variations discussed. The contribution of main meteorological variables to the variations of ET_ref was explored. From the results we found that: (1) the spatial distributions of ET_ref display seasonal variation, with similar spatial patterns in spring, summer and autumn; (2) temporal trends for ET_ref showed large variation in the upper, middle and lower regions of the basin, most of the significant trends (P?=?0.05) were detected in the middle and lower regions, and, in particular, the upward and downward trends were mainly detected in the middle region and lower region of the basin, respectively; and (3) sensitivity analysis identified the most sensitive variable for ET_ref as relative humidity, followed by air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed at the basin scale.

Citation Yang, Zhifeng, Liu, Qiang & Cui, Baoshan (2011) Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 1015–1026.     

Livability assessment of 101,630 communities in China’s major cities: A remote sensing perspective

Science China Earth Sciences - Some of China’s major cities have entered the middle and late stages of urbanization, and the development focus of these cities has gradually shifted from...     

Is irrigation water price an effective leverage for water management? An empirical study in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin

Serious water scarcity, low water-use efficiency, and over-exploitation of underground water have hindered socio-economic development and led to environmental degradation in the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. Price leveraging is an important tool in water demand management, and it is considered to be effective in promoting water conservation and improving water use efficiency on the premise that water demand is elastic. In the present study, we examine whether price is an effective and applicable instrument for restraining the increasing demand for agricultural irrigation water in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin and how will it affect farmers’ decisions on irrigation and crop structure. Specifically, the price elasticity of agricultural water demand was estimated based on the irrigation water demand function. The results show that the agricultural irrigation water price is statistically significant, but its elasticity is very low under current low water price. Price leverage cannot play a significant role in the context of the current pricing regime and farmers’ response to price increase is intrinsically weak. To create incentives for conserving water and improving irrigation efficiency, price mechanism should be accompanied with clearly defined and legally enforceable water rights, restricted water quota measures, and reform of water authorities and water-user associations. Furthermore, increases of surface irrigation water price may lead to the over-withdrawal of groundwater, consequently, effective groundwater licensing and levying must take place to limit the total volume of groundwater withdrawal. In all, improving irrigation efficiency through better management and the adoption of water-saving technologies is the ultimate way to deal with the challenges facing irrigated agriculture in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin.     

Statistical Analysis of Tectonic Environment for Strong Earthquakes in China‘s Continent

A statistical analysis of tectonic environment for M ≥ 6.0 strong earthquakes in China‘ s continent since the beginning of recorded history is performed based on the data of active faults studied during last 10 years and result of compilation of the fourth version of the Map of Seismic Regionalization of China for Earthquake Protection. Tectonic types of seismic sources of strong earthquakes in all seismic regions and the movement modes of seismogenic structures are discussed. Meanwhile, an analysis of lengths of surface rupture zones produced by all types of earthquakes, orientations of long axes of meizoseismal areas, regional tectonic stress fields in seismic source regions for strong earthquakes, geophysical fields (gravity anomaly, highconductivity layer anomaly, and terrestrial heat flow density), and recent vertical crustal deformation fields have been carried out.     

Research Project "Analysis on Changes in Runoff and Sediment Load in The Yellow River" completed for The Ministry of Water Rsources PRC

This large-scale research project was sponsored by the Foundation of Changes inRunoff and Sediment Load in The Yellow River, Ministry of Water Resources PRC. Since1970's evident reduction in runoff and sediment load in the Yellow River took place. Considering such changes might bring about profound consequences to the development of thewhole Yellow River, a special foundation to study the future trend of changes in runoff andsediment load was set up by the Ministry of Water Resources f…     

A classification scheme for Earth’s critical zones and its application in China

As the thin layer at the Earth's terrestrial surface, the critical zone(CZ) ranges from the vegetation canopy to the aquifer or the interface between saprolite and bedrock and varies greatly in space. In the last decade, much attention has been paid to the establishment of Critical Zone Observatories(CZOs) that focus on various aspects of CZ science over different time scales. However, to the best of our knowledge, few studies have explicitly contributed to CZ classification or regionalization;thus, the spatial patterns of similar CZs have not been clearly identified. This study proposed a three-category CZ classification scheme by integrating environmental factors that greatly affect the transfer of energy and mass in the Earth's near-surface environment and thus dominate CZ formation and evolution, i.e., climate, parent material, soil type, groundwater table depth,geomorphology and land use. The main goal was to highlight the zonality of these driving forces, of which the high-category classification units were overlaid to delineate the CZ boundaries. The CZ regionalization of China was performed as a case study,resulting in 44 major regions(1 st category), 100 submajor regions(2 nd category) and 1448 regions(3 rd category). The spatial distributions and driving factors of the ten largest regions were identified, followed by a simple comparison of the CZO network.Then, the proposed CZ regionalization was compared with recent studies on regionalization in China to evaluate its successes and weaknesses. By linking together CZ studies from the last decade, we advocate that a theoretical framework integrating the CZ evolution processes with ecological functions acts as one of the frontiers of CZ science. Our study demonstrates that the proposed three-category CZ classification scheme effectively identifies the spatial variations in CZs and could thus be further applied in other areas to advance terrestrial environmental research and provide decision support for the sustainable management of natural resources.     

Discovery of seismites in Upper Sinian stratiform lead-zinc deposits in Dadu River valley, Sichuan, China: Implication for ore genesis

A number of lead-zinc sulphide deposits have been discovered in recent years in dolo- mitic rocks of the Upper Sinian Dengying Formation in the Dadu River valley region, Sichuan Province, China. The lead-zinc mineralization is closely associated with a black siliceous exhalite that has been traced over 50 km of strike. This makes Dadu River valley the most extensive stratiform non-ferrous sulphide horizon having been discovered to date in China. In a previous study by the first author (LIN), these deposits were recognised as belonging to the broad spectrum of lead-zinc sedimentary exhala- tive (SEDEX) deposits. In this paper, seismites and seismogenetic structures occurring in close association with the Dadu River valley mineralized zone are described. The close spatial and temporal relationship between the seismites and mineralization provides strong evidence for the hypothesis that the lead-zinc SEDEX deposits formed in direct response to earthquake activities around the Sinian-Cambrian boundary. The earthquakes are postulated to be an effective dynamic mechanism for triggering the upward migration of deep circulating ore fluids along synsedimentary growth faults and their exhalation onto the sea-floor to form the extensive deposits of stratiform lead-zinc sulphide ore.     

Flood events and flood risk assessment in relation to climate and land-use changes: Saint-François River,southern Québec,Canada

Abstract

In the current context of climatic variability, it is important to quantify the impact on the environment. This study deals with an analysis of climatic data and land-use changes in terms of the impacts on flood recurrence based on multisource data. The study area covers the mouth of the Saint-François River (southern Québec, Canada), where spring floods and ice jams are a recurring problem. The flood frequency analysis shows an increase in flooding over recent decades, attributable to an increase in winter temperatures that has the effect of causing ice jams earlier in the year. Regarding land-use changes, a small decrease in agricultural surface areas is observed, from 53% to 39%, along with increases in forest and urban surface areas from 27% to 38% (forest) and 3% to 5% (urban) between 1928 and 2005. In a context of continuing climate warming, more pronounced inter-annual variations are to be expected along with a higher incidence of flooding.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Ouellet, C., Saint-Laurent, D. and Normand, F., 2012. Flood events and flood risk assessment in relation to climate and land-use changes: Saint-François River, southern Québec, Canada. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 313–325.     

Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.     

Should the Three Gorges Dam be blamed for the extremely low water levels in the middle–lower Yangtze River?

Extremely low water level events have frequently occurred in the middle–lower Yangtze River (MLYR) in recent years (2006–2011). Most of these drought events coincided with the initial operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). The TGD was therefore the focus of controversy about the causes of the hydrological droughts of the rivers and lakes of the region. We quantified the effects of the TGD's operation on water levels from 2006 to 2011 using a newly developed hydrodynamic model. The operation of the TGD significantly exacerbated the severe hydrological droughts that occurred in late September to November because of water impoundment, but it increased water levels from April to early June in the MLYR because of the drawdown of TGD water levels. Evidence suggests that the recent extremely low water levels were mainly because of the remarkable decline in inflows to the MLYR resulting from precipitation changes and possible human activities. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the effects of the TGD on downstream rivers and lakes will be intensified in the foreseeable future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reproducing kernel and Galerkin��s matrix for the exterior of an ellipsoid: Application in gravity field studies

In the introductory part of the paper the importance of the topic for gravity field studies is outlined. Some concepts and tools often used for the representation of the solution of the respective boundary-value problems are mentioned. Subsequently a weak formulation of Neumann??s problem is considered with emphasis on a particular choice of function basis generated by the reproducing kernel of the respective Hilbert space of functions. The paper then focuses on the construction of the reproducing kernel for the solution domain given by the exterior of an oblate ellipsoid of revolution. First its exact structure is derived by means of the apparatus of ellipsoidal harmonics. In this case the structure of the kernel, similarly as of the entries of Galerkin??s matrix, becomes rather complex. Therefore, an approximation of ellipsoidal harmonics (limit layer approach), based on an approximation version of Legendre??s ordinary differential equation, resulting from the method of separation of variables in solving Laplace??s equation, is used. The kernel thus obtained shows some similar features, which the reproducing kernel has in the spherical case, i.e. for the solution domain represented by the exterior of a sphere. A numerical implementation of the exact structure of the reproducing kernel is mentioned as a driving impulse of running investigations.     

Multivariate statistical methods and GIS based evaluation of the health risk potential and water quality due to arsenic pollution in the Kızılırmak River

The K?z?l?rmak River is Turkey's longest (1,355 km) river and it is important since it constitutes the drinking and irrigation water source of the Central Anatolia Region. In the current study, the spatial distribution, effect on irrigation water quality, environmental pollution status, ecotoxicological and health risks as well as possible sources of 12 potential toxic elements' (PTEs) (manganese (Mn), aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), zinc (Zn), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb)) concentrations from surface water samples in the K?z?l?rmak River were analyzed by using geographical information systems (GIS) software, ecotoxicological indices, and multivariate statistical analysis. As a result of the current study, it was determined that the As concentration is above the World Health Organization (WHO) limit values, and, in terms of the 12 PTEs, there is slight heavy metal contamination in the river according to the Heavy Metal Pollution Index (HPI) and Heavy Metal Evaluation Index (HEI) values and there is a low level of pollution. The Hazard Quotient for ingestion (HQ_ingestion) and Hazard Index (HI) values indicate that non-carcinogenic effects may occur. Exposure to river water is likely to result in a low level of carcinogenic risk (CR) in adults, mainly due to the As concentration. The water at Sampling Station S3 (131.79) cannot be used for drinking and is not suitable for consumption. According to the sodium percentage (Na%), Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR), and Magnesium Hazard (MH) index results, river water is suitable for agricultural use.     

Air–water CO_2 flux in an algae bloom year for Lake Hongfeng,Southwest China:implications for the carbon cycle of global inland waters

The carbon cycle of global inland waters is quantitatively comparable to other components in the global carbon budget. Among inland waters, a significant part is man-made lakes formed by damming rivers. Manmade lakes are undergoing a rapid increase in number and size. Human impacts and frequent algae blooms lead to it necessary to make a better constraint on their carbon cycles. Here, we make a primary estimation on the air–water CO_2 transfer flux through an algae bloom year for a subtropical man-made lake—Hongfeng Lake, Southwest China. To do this a new type of glass bottles was designed for content and isotopic analysis of DIC and other environmental parameters. At the early stage of algae bloom,CO_2 was transferred from the atmosphere to the lake with a net flux of 1.770 g·C·m~(-2). Later, the partial pressure(pCO_2) of the aqueous CO_2 increased rapidly and the lake outgassed to the atmosphere with a net flux of 95.727 g·C·m~(-2). In the remaining days, the lake again took up CO_2 from the atmosphere with a net flux of 14.804 g·C·m~(-2). As a whole, Lake Hongfeng released 4527 t C to the atmosphere, accounting for one-third of the atmosphere/soil CO_2 sequestered by chemical weathering in the whole drainage. With an empirical mode decomposition method, we found air temperature plays a major role in controlling water temperature, aqueous pCO_2 and hence CO_2 flux. This work indicates a necessity to make detailed and comprehensive carbon budgets in man-made lakes.     

Comparative investigation on the decreased runoff between the water source and destination regions in the middle route of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Investigation on decreased runoff and driving forces in the water source and water destination catchments is vital to the water resources protection and water supply security assurance. Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin (DRB) and Miyun Reservoir Basin (MRB) are the water source and water destination regions for the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MSNWDP) in China. Variations in runoff and driving forces behind these variations during 1960–2005 in the DRB and the MRB were comparatively analyzed and investigated by the climate elasticity method based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results showed that the runoff change process was diagnosed as the same three sub-periods (1960–1979, 1980–1989, and 1990–2005) by the cumulative anomaly analysis. The variations in the runoff exhibited large fluctuations with an overall decreasing trend of ?2.5 mm/year in the DRB and ?1.1 mm/year in the MRB. The variations in average annual runoff among the three sub-periods had significant differences in magnitude and direction. The runoff in the DRB increased by 81.6 mm during 1980–1989, and decreased by 67.1 mm during 1990–2005. However, the decreased runoff in the MRB during 1980–1989 and 1990–2005 were 37.3 and 31.7 mm, respectively. The specific spatio-temporal differences of climate factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and catchment characteristics jointly resulted in the differences of the runoff change. The climate elasticity method revealed that the leading factors to runoff changes in the three sub-periods had significant differences. The climate factors were the leading factors before 1990, however, the human activities became more intensive to be the leading factors after 1999. The relative contributions of climate factors and catchment characteristics to runoff change varied from (88.5%, 8.2%) during 1980–1989 to (30.9%, 73.9%) during 1990–2005 in the DRB. However, in the MRB, the relative contributions were from (51.0%, 48.2%) during 1980–1989 to (?8.0%, 110.0%) during 1990–2005. An effective way to reduce risk is to take the dynamic or elastic water resources management and the differentiated protection measures. In addition, green water management, the water demand management and saving water both in the water source regions and in the water destination regions of the MSNWDP are recommended and persistently advocated to reduce water consumption.