Scanning reflectance spectroscopy (380–730 nm): a novel method for quantitative high-resolution climate reconstructions from minerogenic lake sediments

High-resolution (annual to sub-decadal) quantitative reconstructions of climate variables are needed from a variety of paleoclimate archives across the world to place current climate change in the context of long-term natural climate variability. Rapid, high-resolution, non-destructive scanning techniques are required to produce such high-resolution records from lake sediments. In this study we explored the potential of scanning reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS; 380–730 nm) to produce quantitative summer temperature reconstructions from minerogenic sediments of proglacial, annually laminated Lake Silvaplana, in the eastern Swiss Alps. The scanning resolution was 2 mm, which corresponded to sediment deposition over 1–2 years. We found correlations up to r = 0.84 (p < 0.05) for the calibration period 1864–1950, between six reflectance-dependent variables and summer (JJAS) temperature. These reflectance-dependent variables (e.g. slope of the reflectance 570/630 nm, indicative of illite, biotite and chlorite; minimum reflectance at 690 nm indicative of chlorite) indicate the mineralogical composition of the clastic sediments, which is, in turn, related to climate in the catchment of this particular proglacial lake. We used multiple linear regression (MLR) to establish a calibration model that explains 84% of the variance of summer (JJAS) temperature during the calibration period 1864–1950. We then applied the calibration model downcore to develop a quantitative summer temperature reconstruction extending back to AD 1177. This temperature reconstruction is in good agreement with two independent temperature reconstructions based on documentary data that extend back to AD 1500 and tree ring data that extend back to AD 1177. This study confirms the great potential of in situ scanning reflectance spectroscopy as a novel non-destructive technique to rapidly acquire high-resolution quantitative paleoclimate information from minerogenic lake sediments.     

The use of high-resolution gridded climate data in the development of chironomid-based inference models from remote areas

The development of chironomid-based air temperature inference models in high latitude regions often relies on limited spatial coverage of meteorological data and/or on punctual measurements of water temperature at the time of sampling. The use of simple linear regression to relate air temperature and latitude was until recently the best method to characterize the air temperature gradient along a latitudinal gradient. However, recent studies have used high-resolution gridded climate data to develop new chironomid-based air temperature inference models. This innovative approach has, however, never been further analyzed to test its reliability. This study presents a method using ArcGIS^® to extract air temperatures from a high-resolution global gridded climate data set (New et al. 2002) and to incorporate these new data in a variety of chironomid-based air temperature inference models to test their performance. Results suggest that this method is reliable and produces better estimates of air temperature and will be helpful in the development of further quantitative air temperature inference models in remote areas.     

Testing intra-site transfer functions: an example using chironomids and water depth

Most calibration data sets used to infer past environmental conditions from biological proxies are derived from many sites. An alternative strategy is to derive the calibration data set from within a single site. Transfer functions derived from such intra-site calibration data sets are usually applied to fossil assemblages from the focal lake, but a recent development has been to apply these transfer functions to other sites. Transfer functions derived from intra-site calibration data sets can have impressive cross-validation performance, but that gives little indication of their performance when applied to other sites. Here, we develop transfer functions for lake depth from intra-lake chironomid calibration data sets in Norway and Alaska and test the resulting models by cross-validation and against known depth in external lakes. Lake depth is a statistically significant predictor of chironomid assemblages at all these lakes, and most intra-lake transfer functions perform reasonably well under cross-validation, but their performance against external data is erratic. Downcore reconstructions from transfer functions developed on different lakes are dissimilar. Ignoring the poorly performing transfer functions, only 3 of 14 downcore reconstructions are statistically significant. Few assemblages downcore had good modern analogues in the calibration data set, even when the core was from the same lake as the calibration data set. We conclude that intra-site calibration data sets can find site-specific rather than general relationships between species and the environment and thus should be applied with care and to external sites only after careful and critical validation.     

Diatom-based inference models and reconstructions revisited: methods and transformations

Different calibration methods and data manipulations are being employed for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions, but are rarely compared using the same data. Here, we compare several diatom-based models [weighted averaging (WA), weighted averaging with tolerance-downweighting (WAT), weighted averaging partial least squares, artificial neural networks (ANN) and Gaussian logit regression (GLR)] in different situations of data manipulation. We tested whether log-transformation of environmental gradients and square-root transformation of species data improved the predictive abilities and the reconstruction capabilities of the different calibration methods and discussed them in regard to species response models along environmental gradients. Using a calibration data set from New England, we showed that all methods adequately modelled the variables pH, alkalinity and total phosphorus (TP), as indicated by similar root mean square errors of prediction. However, WAT had lower performance statistics than simple WA and showed some unusual values in reconstruction, but setting a minimum tolerance for the modern species, such as available in the new computer program C² version 1.4, resolved these problems. Validation with the instrumental record from Walden Pond (Massachusetts, USA) showed that WA and WAT reconstructed most closely pH and that GLR reconstructions showed the best agreement with measured alkalinity, whereas ANN and GLR models were superior in reconstructing the secondary gradient variable TP. Log-transformation of environmental gradients improved model performance for alkalinity, but not much for TP. While square-root transformation of species data improved the performance of the ANN models, they did not affect the WA models. Untransformed species data resulted in better accordance of the TP inferences with the instrumental record using WA, indicating that, in some cases, ecological information encoded in the modern and fossil species data might be lost by square-root transformation. Thus it may be useful to consider different species data transformations for different environmental reconstructions. This study showed that the tested methods are equally suitable for the reconstruction of parameters that mainly control the diatom assemblages, but that ANN and GLR may be superior in modelling a secondary gradient variable. For example, ANN and GLR may be advantageous for modelling lake nutrient levels in North America, where TP gradients are relatively short.     

GIS and Field‐Based Spatiotemporal Analysis for Evaluation of Paleo–Ice Sheet Simulations*

Reconstructing paleo–ice sheets is significant for paleoclimate reconstructions and evaluations of sea level low stands. Accurate reconstructions of paleo–ice sheet dimensions and dynamics necessitate the combination of field evidence and process modeling. In this study, a GIS‐based technique was developed to quantitatively assess model output against geomorphic data. However, implementation of this technique is not straightforward and requires consideration of time‐space relationships, data representation, resolution, and analytical design. Combined use of two software tools holds considerable promise for the use, application, and interpretation of refined ice sheet models.     

基于日记的历史气候变化研究综述

重建历史时期的气候变化可为分析当前气候变化规律和模拟未来气候变化趋势提供历史参考情景。古代私人日记中保存的气候信息,因其直观性强、分辨率高等特点而受到研究者的重视,成为重建历史气候时使用较多的一类代用数据。近年来,国内外学者利用日记资料,已经重建了多个地区历史上的温度、降水及物候变化,并已逐步由定性描述发展到定量研究。本文从代用指标、研究方法、研究成果3 个方面,对基于日记的历史气候重建研究成果进行综述,得到以下结论:① 重建指标选取上,国内外均较常使用天气情况日数和感应记录两类指标;此外,国内常用自然生长植物的物候期,而国外还使用风向、云量等指标;重建指标类型可分为定量、半定量、定性3 类,定量与定性指标使用较多,半定量指标使用相对较少。② 重建方法上,中外研究者多采用定性分析法和定量转换法等;资料校对方法上,西方学者多采用器测资料进行检验,国内则常选用方志与官私文件进行校订。③ 国外研究的重建内容主要涉及区域温度和降水;而国内除了温度和降水重建外,还研究了沙尘和梅雨等中国特有的天气气候现象。利用日记重建历史气候的优势在于,日记中保存的历史气候信息细节丰富、时间分辨率高,因而能够很好地保证重建结果的准确性。未来这一领域的研究还应继续改进代用指标的定量转换和重建结果的校验方法,并加强对不同区域、不同时段的同类研究结果的集成研究。     

A comparison of three Eurasian chironomid–climate calibration datasets on a W–E continentality gradient and the implications for quantitative temperature reconstructions

Multiple regional chironomid–climate calibration datasets are available to reconstruct quantitatively July air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages. We examined the relationship between July air temperature and the 40 most common chironomid taxa in three independent Eurasian calibration (training) sets. The estimated temperature optimum of each chironomid taxon is systematically lower (by ~1–2 °C) in a Norwegian calibration set compared to Finnish and Russian calibration sets. This result might partly be explained by the fact that the Norwegian calibration set extends further at the cold end of the temperature gradient. A difference in continentality between the Russian sites and the European sites might also contribute to this pattern. The number of taxa that show a statistically significant unimodal response to temperature is higher in the Norwegian calibration set (34 out of 40 taxa) compared to the modern Finnish (11 of 37 taxa; 3 common taxa absent) and the Russian calibration set (20 of 40 taxa), probably due to the longer temperature gradient incorporated in the Norwegian calibration set. We applied all three calibration sets to fossil chironomid assemblages from the high-latitude study site of Sokli (northeast Finland), a site with a unique series of lacustrine deposits covering (amongst others) the Holocene, part of early MIS 3 (at ~53 ka) and MIS 5d–c (at ~110–95 ka) and with independent proxy-records for comparison. In the early Holocene and during MIS 5c, the chironomid-based temperature inferences from all three inference models had similar values. Temperature reconstructions based on the Norwegian calibration set are 2–4 °C lower for the late Holocene, early MIS 3 and MIS 5d than the inferred temperatures based on the other calibration sets. Although the lakes included in the Finnish calibration set are located closest to the site of Sokli, evaluation tests and a comparison with independent proxy data suggests that the Norwegian calibration set provides the most suitable analogues for reconstruction purposes for most of the fossil assemblages. Our results imply that when choosing a calibration set for quantitative climate reconstructions on glacial timescales, regional proximity of the fossil site may not be a sufficient basis, and the length of the temperature gradient of the calibration dataset and factors such as the continentality gradient covered by the calibration set must also be considered.     

Hydrogeological investigation of Chappice Lake, southeastern Alberta: Groundwater inputs to a saline basin

Sediment cores from Chappice Lake, a hypersaline, groundwater-fed lake in southeastern Alberta, have been used in previous studies to reconstruct Holocene climate using lake levels as a source for proxy climate data. This assumes that the lake is fed by a shallow groundwater system sensitive to changes in climate. In this study we use the dynamics and chemistry of groundwater entering the lake to test this hypothesis.Groundwater inputs calculated from historical records using a simple water budget were highest during periods when the precipitation deficit was high. Over specific time intervals, the expected relationship between lake volumes and climate were not always found. Feedback loops between lake levels and groundwater input, and time lags within the system are the mechanisms proposed to explain these discrepancies.Field measurements suggest discharge of a local surficial groundwater system. Slug tests reveal a high conductivity system (K = 10-5 m/s) surrounding the lake. Hydraulic heads measured in standpipe, multilevel and minipiezometers installed around Chappice Lake show that the lake is situated in a closed hydraulic head contour. Hydraulic heads and water table elevations show strong annual fluctuations corresponding to seasonal changes in recharge. Horizontal hydraulic gradients measured in areas of groundwater springs indicate a strong horizontal component of flow towards the lake. Vertical hydraulic gradients are low and indicate the upward flow of water consistent with the discharge of a shallow, surfical groundwater system.Groundwater sampled from deposits surrounding Chappice Lake and springs feeding the lake have compositions similar to both shallow surficial aquifers and bedrock aquifers suggesting that the lake may be receiving inputs from both sources. However, evaporation simulations using PHRQPITZ, show that the evaporation of water typical of bedrock aquifers result in a mineral assemblage and brine composition different from that found at Chappice Lake. This suggests that discharge of a regional groundwater system can be eliminated as a dominant source over the lake's history. Evaporation simulations suggest that evaporation of groundwater from shallow surficial deposits can best explain the present mineral assemblage and brine chemistry and were likely the dominant source of water to the lake.Bedrock and shallow surficial groundwater sources have different chemistries and isotopic compositions. In hydrogeological settings such as Chappice Lake where more than one source may contribute to the lake, the relative importance of the different sources may change with changes in climate. If the source water composition to the lake changes, identifying changes in climate or hydrology based on changes in the composition of the lake preserved in sediment core will be made more difficult. This may complicate paleoclimate and paleohydrological reconstructions that rely on mineralogical and isotopic data.     

Sieve mesh size and quantitative chironomid paleoclimatology

The minimum sieve mesh size for fossil chironomid analysis is usually set at 100 μm, to ensure adequate recovery of small species. Yet taking into account the labor intensity of sorting and identifying fossil chironomid remains, the large numbers of samples requiring processing in paleoclimate studies with high temporal resolution, and the increasing need to engage non-specialist analysts in this work, it seems appealing to sieve samples through a larger mesh size that would mainly retain easier-to-see, easier-to-extract and easier-to-identify fossil specimens. In this study we evaluated the influence of sieve mesh size on chironomid-based quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions in African lakes. We developed two chironomid-salinity calibration data sets based on either the >100 μm or >150 μm size fractions of surface-sediment fossil assemblages, and compared the performance of salinity-inference models derived from them. We find that, despite ∼35% additional fossil loss, restriction to >150 μm data did not appreciably affect individual taxon optima or tolerances, and resulted in only a modest reduction of mean taxon richness per lake. Parameters of statistical model performance were as good, or better than those of models based on the >100 μm data, albeit only after excluding two atypically dilute (<100 μS/cm) lakes from the calibration. Application of inference models based on >150 μm or >100 μm data to a 200-year fossil record from Lake Abiyata, Ethiopia, produced very similar trends, amplitudes and uncertainty ranges of inferred past salinity change. Restriction to >150 μm data reduced the mean fossil yield of core samples by ∼20% on average, i.e. fossil loss was markedly lower than in surface-sediment samples. Using the larger mesh size reduced sample processing time by up to 50%, partly by removing a significant proportion of visually obstructive organic debris, and partly by allowing a greater fraction of chironomid fossils to be identified directly in the sorting tray. The fraction of 1st instar group taxa in surface-sediment samples was reduced from 13% to 3%, increasing the mean taxonomic resolution of fossil assemblages, and thus their ecological specificity.     

Calibrating biogeochemical and physical climate proxies from non-varved lake sediments with meteorological data: methods and case studies

Lake sediment records are underrepresented in comprehensive, quantitative, high-resolution (sub-decadal), multi-proxy climate reconstructions for the past millennium. This is largely a consequence of the difficulty of calibrating biogeochemical lake sediment proxies to meteorological time series (calibration-in-time). Thanks to recent methodological advances, it is now possible. This paper outlines a step-by-step, specifically tailored methodology, with practical suggestions for calibrating and validating biogeochemical proxies from lake sediments to meteorological data. This approach includes: (1) regional climate data; (2) site selection; (3) coring and core selection; (4) core chronology; (5) data acquisition; and (6) data analysis and statistical methods. We present three case studies that used non-varved lake sediments from remote areas in the Central Chilean Andes, where little a priori information was available on the local climate and lakes, or their responses to climate variability. These case studies illustrate the potential value and application of a calibration-in-time approach to non-varved lake sediments for developing quantitative, high-resolution climate reconstructions.     

薄板光顺样条插值与中国气候空间模拟

利用720个气象台网的长期平均气象数据拟合具有三维地理空间的气候曲面,并与1km空间分辨率的数字高程模型相结合,对气候变量的规则栅格进行插值估计。对各月平均最低温度、平均最高温度和降水量的插值结果构成了基础数字气候空间,以满足地理信息系统的数据分析需求。插值过程提供的误差统计表明插值的温度误差普遍小于0.6度,降水误差范围在8%~15%,明显优于其它插值方法。样条法利用线性模型反映地形对气候的影响,并提供了简便的误差诊断程序,具有良好的实用性。     

An overview of late Holocene climate and environmental change inferred from Arctic lake sediment

The 14 papers in this Special Issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology report new records of Holocene climate and environmental change from Arctic lakes, with emphasis on the last 2000 years. The study sites span the high latitudes of North America and extend into northwestern Europe. The studies rely on multiple proxy indicators to reconstruct past climate, including: varve thicknesses, chironomid, diatom, and pollen assemblages, biogenic-silica and organic-matter content, oxygen-isotope ratios in diatoms, and the frequency of lake-ice-rafted aggregates. These proxies primarily document changes in past summer temperatures, the main control on physical and biological processes in lakes at high latitudes. The records will be integrated into a larger network of paleoclimate sites to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of climate change and to compare the paleoclimate inferences with the output of general circulation models. This is the Introduction to a series of fourteen papers published as a special issue dedicated to reconstructing late Holocene climate change from Arctic lake sediments. The special issue is a contribution to the International Polar Year and was edited by Darrell Kaufman.     

Statistical analysis of modern seed assemblages from the San Francisco Bay: applications for the reconstruction of paleo-salinity and paleo-tidal inundation

The feasibility of developing a seed calibration data set to infer environmental constraints was examined by studying modern seed and vegetation assemblages from 53 stations at three distinct tidal marshes within the San Francisco Bay (salt, brackish and freshwater). Pearson's correlation indicates autochthonous derivation of seeds at the marsh sites. Multivariate statistical analysis of the vegetation and seed data indicates discrete assemblages, which can be used as a proxy for modern salinity and tidal inundation within the estuary. Canonical discriminant analysis indicates that the vegetation and seed assemblages of the three marsh types are statistically distinct. Cluster analysis suggests that marsh vegetation is zoned at the mean higher high water mark at all the sites. The calibration set was then applied to stratigraphic seed data from the estuary to infer changes in paleo-salinity and -tidal inundation during the Holocene. The results of the calibration are compared to earlier reconstructions within the estuary. While the calibrated reconstruction broadly compares to previous reconstructions, a period of inferred lower salinity within the estuary between 3800–2000 cal yr B.P. is calibrated as brackish and not fresh by the calibration model.     

basin%Ro: A vitrinite reflectance model derived from basin and laboratory data

The combination of vitrinite reflectance, apatite fission track and present‐day borehole temperature data is very useful when performing tectonic and thermal reconstructions in sedimentary basins which, in turn, are essential for assessing risk in hydrocarbon exploration and for testing hypotheses of basin evolution. Releasing the full potential of the combined data set requires that the predictive models are accurate in themselves. Here, we calibrate a new kinetic vitrinite reflectance model ‘basin%R_o’ using borehole data from a number of sedimentary basins and vitrinite reflectance data from laboratory maturation experiments. The entire data set is inverted for the kinetic parameters of the reflectance model under consideration of uncertainty in the temperature histories of the calibration samples. The method is not sensitive to inconsistent calibration data, which are revealed by significant corrections to the temperature histories. The performance of the model is tested on independent well data from the East China Sea and the Nova Scotian Shelf. The widely used easy%R_o‐model overestimates vitrinite reflectance in the interval 0.5–1.7% R_o by up to 0.35%. Delimiting of oil generating intervals by prediction of vitrinite reflectance may lead to significant underestimation of the generative potential, which may call for a revision of some petroleum systems. The overestimation by easy%R_o may have fuelled the idea of pressure retardation of vitrinite reflectance evolution under sedimentary basin conditions, where pressures in fact are too low for this to be important.     

Assessment of freshwater diatoms as quantitative indicators of past climatic change in the Yukon and Northwest Territories,Canada

We identified, enumerated, and interpreted the diatom assemblages preserved in the surface sediments of 59 lakes located between Whitehorse in the Yukon and Tuktoyaktuk in the Northwest Territories (Canada). The lakes are distributed along a latitudinal gradient that includes several ecoclimatic zones. It also spans large gradients in limnological variables. Thus, the study lakes are ideal for environmental calibration of modern diatom assemblages. Canonical correspondence analysis, with forward selection and Monte Carlo permutation tests, showed that maximum lake depth and summer surface-water temperature were the two environmental variables that accounted for most of the variance in the diatom data. The concentrations of sodium and calcium were also important explanatory variables. Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration techniques, we developed a predictive statistical model to infer lake surface-water temperature, and we evaluated the feasibility of using diatoms as paleoclimate proxies. This model may be used to derive paleotemperature inferences from fossil diatom assemblages at appropriate sites in the western Canadian Arctic.     

北极地区20世纪温度变化趋势的不确定性

北极作为地球的冷源之一,对于地球气候系统起着重要的调节作用.本研究通过分析和总结北极地区器测数据和模拟集成结果,以及最近2 000 a来的温度记录,得出如下结果：1）格陵兰冰盖表层大气温度记录显示,20世纪存在1923—1965年和1994年—至今2个相对温暖时段,且前者更为温暖,温度变化幅度远大于北半球的平均温度.2）北极地区20世纪温度上升是客观存在的,其夏季温度和年平均温度呈现一致变化,未发现明显的温度异常信号.3）定量重建的古气候记录显示了北极地区20世纪升温的特征,但不同记录揭示的升温幅度存在差异.与器测结果不同,多条重建记录未能揭示自1994年至今的升温阶段,反映了古气候载体对气候响应的复杂性,揭示出北极地区未来气候变化趋势存在不确定性.在全球变化备受关注的背景下,北极地区对气候变化研究的重要性日益显现,在做出明确结论之前,需要进一步加大研究力度.     

晚第四纪科尔沁沙地干湿变化的黄土记录

利用光释光（OSL）定年技术对科尔沁沙地南缘的典型黄土剖面进行了测年,结合两个剖面的磁化率、粒度、有机质含量等气候替代性指标,对沙地古气候及环境变化过程进行了分析。结果表明,晚第四纪科尔沁沙地的古气候经历了万年-千年时间尺度的多次干湿变化,特别是在146.96 ka BP前后、141.98 ka BP左右和107.06 ka BP前后发生过重大转变;相应地,沙地地表植被也经历了干冷多风条件下的干草原、荒漠草原和温暖湿润或温凉稍湿气候条件下的森林草原、疏林草原的多次变化。科尔沁沙地古气候的干湿变化可能是晚第四纪东亚冬、夏季风强弱变化的反映。     

A HIGH-RESOLUTION, GRIDDED DATASET FOR MONTHLY TEMPERATURE NORMALS (1971-2000) IN SWEDEN

A baseline climatology is required in evaluating climate variability and changes on regional and local scales. Gridded climate normals, i.e. averages over a 30‐year period, are of special interest since they can be readily used for validation of climate models. This study is aimed at creating an updated gridded dataset for Swedish monthly temperature normals over the period 1971–2000, based on standard 2‐m air temperature records at 510 stations in mainland Sweden. Spatial trends of the normal temperatures were modelled as functions of latitude, longitude and elevation by multiple linear regression. The study shows that the temperature normals are strongly correlated with latitude throughout the year and especially in cold months, while elevation was a more important factor in June and July. Longitude played a minor role and was only significant in April and May. Regression equations linking temperature to latitude, longitude and elevation were set up for each month. Monthly temperature normals were detrended by subtracting spatial trends given by the regressions. Ordinary kriging was then applied to both original data (simple method) and de‐trended data (composite method) to model the spatial variability and to perform spatial gridding. The multiple regressions showed that between 82% (summer) and 96% (winter) of the variance in monthly temperature normals could be explained by latitude and elevation. Unexplained variances, i.e. the residuals, were modelled with ordinary kriging with exponential semivariograms. The composite grid estimates were calculated by adding the multiple linear trends back to the interpolated residuals at each grid point. Kriged original temperature normals provided a performance benchmark. The cross–validation shows that the interpolation errors of the normals are significantly reduced if the composite method rather than the simple one was used. A gridded monthly dataset with 30‐arcsecond spacing was created using the established trends, the kriging model and a digital topographic dataset.     

Two centuries of temperature variation and volcanic forcing reconstructed for the northern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The northern Tibetan Plateau has been subject to recent warming far above the global average. With few instrumental climate records available for this region before the 1950s, paleoclimatic reconstructions must be used to understand annual-to-centennial-scale climate variations and local climate response to large-scale forcing mechanisms. We developed a maximum latewood density chronology of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) from the southern slope of the Qilian Mountains, northern Tibetan Plateau. Based on the chronology, we reconstructed August–September temperature for 1780–2008. The temperature reconstruction model accounts for 39.7% of instrumental temperature variance from 1957 to 2008, successfully capturing the most recent warming. Superposed epoch analysis indicated a volcanic forcing for temperature, resulting in pulses of cooler conditions that can persist for 2–4 years. Tree-ring data indicated that warm-dry and cold-wet climate combinations mainly occurred in northern Tibetan Plateau before CE 1900, and revealed a clear wetting and warming trend since the 1980s. Our study provides long-term perspective on recent climate change in northern Tibetan Plateau to guide expectations of future climate variability and aid sustainable development, and provides scenarios for climate change adaptation and inputs for climate models representing a broader range of conditions than those of historical climate records.     

Downscaling climate-model output in mountainous terrain using local topographic lapse rates for hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts

One of the challenges in using general circulation model (GCM) output is the need to downscale beyond the model’s coarse spatial grid for use in hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts. In mountainous terrain, using elevation as a primary control on temperature and precipitation at the local scale provides the potential for topographic variables to be used to adjust climate-model output. Here, local topographic lapse rates (LTLR) were estimated from gridded climate data for the Pacific Northwest of the United States and used to downscale GCM output. Skill scores were calculated for the LTLR-downscaled climate-model output relative to an existing set of model output downscaled using the established statistical downscaling technique of localized constructed analogs (LOCA). The results indicate that the LTLR method performs well in the mountainous study region relative to the LOCA method. LTLR downscaling offers a promising method for downscaling climate-model output in regions in which elevation strongly controls climate, particularly for studying impacts of future climate change on water resources.