Potential of weight of evidence modelling for gully erosion hazard assessment in Mbire District – Zimbabwe

Gully erosion is an environmental concern particularly in areas where landcover has been modified by human activities. This study assessed the extent to which the potential of gully erosion could be successfully modelled as a function of seven environmental factors (landcover, soil type, distance from river, distance from road, Sediment Transport Index (STI), Stream Power Index (SPI) and Wetness Index (WI)) using a GIS-based Weight of Evidence Modelling (WEM) in the Mbire District of Zimbabwe. Results show that out of the studied seven factors affecting gully erosion, five were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) to gully occurrence, namely; landcover, soil type, distance from river, STI and SPI. Two factors; WI and distance from road were not significantly correlated to gully occurrence (p > 0.05). A gully erosion hazard map showed that 78% of the very high hazard class area is within a distance of 250 m from rivers. Model validation indicated that 70% of the validation set of gullies were in the high hazard and very high hazard class. The resulting map of areas susceptible to gully erosion has a prediction accuracy of 67.8%. The predictive capability of the weight of evidence model in this study suggests that landcover, soil type, distance from river, STI and SPI are useful in creating a gully erosion hazard map but may not be sufficient to produce a valid map of gully erosion hazard.     

Physical modelling of shaking table tests on dynamic soil–foundation interaction and numerical and analytical simulation

Earthquake geotechnical engineering has been recognised as an important branch of earthquake engineering. The analysis of soil–structure interaction may also be crucial when structural design problems are involved. Soil–structure interaction is a complex problem and needs to be analysed by physical and numerical modelling. Two physical models, consisting of a shallow foundation resting on a sand deposit, are tested on a shaking table to analyse soil–foundation interaction. The physical models are monitored, recording the time-histories of accelerations and displacements in the soil deposit and on the foundation. FEM codes are then employed to numerically model the resulting behaviour, using specific constitutive models and a new hand-made code based on the characteristic-line method. Simplified analytical approaches, still preferred in engineering, are discussed and developed. A comparison is made between the numerical and analytical results and they are also compared with the experimental results to validate the numerical modelling and analytical approaches and, in the new light of the Performance-Based-Design, evaluate their ability to predict foundation displacements (SLE) and bearing capacity (SLU). Finally, interesting aspects regarding the seismic behaviour of the shallow foundation on the sand deposit have been observed and noted.     

Influence of thawed soil depth on rainfall erosion of frozen bare meadow soil in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has a vast area of approximately 70×10⁴ km² of alpine meadow under the impacts of soil freezing and thawing, thereby inducing intensive water erosion. Quantifying the rainfall erosion process of partially thawed soil provides the basis for model simulation of soil erosion on cold-region hillslopes. In this study, we conducted a laboratory experiment on rainfall-induced erosion of partially thawed soil slope under four slope gradients (5, 10, 15, and 20°), three rainfall intensities (30, 60, and 90 mm h⁻¹), and three thawed soil depths (1, 2, and 10 cm). The results indicated that shallow thawed soil depth aggravated soil erosion of partially thawed soil slopes under low hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity of 30 mm h⁻¹ and slope gradient ≤ 15°), whereas it inhibited erosion under high hydrodynamic conditions (rainfall intensity ≥ 60 mm h⁻¹ or slope gradient > 15°). Soil erosion was controlled by the thawed soil depth and runoff hydrodynamic conditions. When the sediment supply was sufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth had a higher erosion potential and a larger sediment concentration. On the contrary, when the sediment supply was insufficient, the shallow thawed soil depth resulted in lower sediment erosion and a smaller sediment concentration. The hydrodynamic runoff conditions determined whether the sediment supply was sufficient. We propose a model to predict sediment delivery under different slope gradients, rainfall intensities, and thawed soil depths. The model, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.95, accurately predicted the sediment delivery under different conditions, which was helpful for quantification of the complex feedback of sediment delivery to the factors influencing rainfall erosion of partially thawed soil. This study provides valuable insights into the rainfall erosion mechanism of partially thawed soil slopes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and provides a basis for further studies on soil erosion under different hydrodynamic conditions.     

Hydrological impact of forest-fire from paired-catchment and rainfall–runoff modelling perspectives

Abstract

This study deals with the Rimbaud catchment, a sub-catchment within the Réal Collobrier hydrological observatory in southeastern France, managed by Irstea since 1966. This observatory suffered a wildfire in 1990. Because of the dense network of streamgauges and raingauges available, this site provides a unique opportunity to test and compare two types of analysis, one based on paired catchments and the other a rainfall–runoff model, used to assess the hydrological impact of forest fire. In the present case, more than 20 years of pre-fire and post-fire data are available. We compare the ability of the two approaches to detect gradual changes at a daily time step. This case study illustrates how natural climatic variability (here a long drought which preceded the wildfire) can make the identification of hydrological changes extremely difficult.     

Rainfall–runoff modelling of railway embankment steep slopes

Abstract

A distributed 1D rainfall–runoff model is presented. It consists of the Saint Venant continuity and momentum equations for overland flow and a modified Green-Ampt model for the infiltration on railway embankment steep slopes. The model is applied to adjacent 10-m-wide erosion control experimental plots with different percentages of grass cover. A relationship between the 2-day antecedent rainfall and initial moisture content was established and used to predict the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks). Average values of Ks for 0, 50 and 100% grass cover were found to be 0.1, 1.19 and 2.56 mm/h, respectively. For the majority of cases, the model simulated runoff with acceptable accuracy, 68% having Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values above 0.50. The average NSE value varied between 0.60 and 0.80, with 0% grass-covered plots yielding the highest values. As expected, the runoff volume decreased with increasing percentage of grass cover.

Citation Sajjan, A.K., Gyasi-Agyei, Y., and Sharma, R.H., 2013. Rainfall–runoff modelling of railway embankment steep slopes. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1162–1176.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

On the importance of soil moisture in calibration of rainfall–runoff models: two case studies

Streamflow modelling results from the GR4H and PDM hydrological models were evaluated in two Australian sub-catchments, using (1) calibration to streamflow and (2) joint-calibration to streamflow and soil moisture. Soil moisture storage in the models was evaluated against soil moisture observations from field measurements. The PDM had the best performance in terms of both streamflow and soil moisture estimations during the calibration period, but was outperformed by GR4H during validation. It was also shown that the soil moisture estimation was improved significantly by joint-calibration for the case where streamflow and soil moisture estimations were poor. In other cases, addition of the soil moisture constraint did not degrade the results. Consequently, it is recommended that GR4H be used, in preference to the PDM, in the foothills of the Murrumbidgee catchment or other Australian catchments with semi-arid to sub-humid climate, and that soil moisture data be used in the calibration process.     

Variations in sediment runoff in the lower reaches and the delta of the Kuban River in the XX–XXI centuries

Data of network and expedition measurements and information about water management arrangements were used to study in detail the peculiarities of along-channel and long-term variations in the major characteristics of suspended sediment runoff in the lower reach and the delta of the Kuban River. For characteristics periods, the annual volumes of actual and estimated sediment runoff and the contribution of economic activity in its variations are evaluated and possible changes in sediment runoff characteristics in the XXI century are forecasted. The specific features, values, and causes of sediment runoff transformation in Kuban delta in the past and the present are analyzed; sediment balance in the delta is calculated.     

Hydrological–morphological processes in the mouth area of the Congo R. and the effect of submarine canyon on these processes

The general geographic, hydrographic, climatic, and hydrological characteristics of the Congo R. basin are considered. The major features of the riverine and marine factors that have their effect on the hydrological regime and morphology of the delta and estuary of the Congo R. are identified; the effect of a submarine canyon on the morphological features of the estuary is analyzed in detail; and changes in river delta structure in the XX century and currently are considered. The hydrological—morphological characteristics of the largest mouths of African rivers, the formation conditions of water and sediment runoff, and variations of their deltas are compared.     

Physical mechanisms of plant roots affecting weathering and leaching of loess soil

Vegetation is an important factor in maintaining ecological balance and improving eco-environment. For improving environment, vegetation cover, as a substitute for the integrated action of stems and leaves, seems to be a crucial factor. However, recent st…     

Crossing the rural–urban boundary in hydrological modelling: How do conceptual rainfall–runoff models handle the specificities of urbanized catchments?

Landscape differences induced by urbanization have prompted hydrologists to define a fuzzy boundary between rural- and urban-specific hydrological models. We addressed the validity of establishing this boundary, by testing two rural models on a large sample of 175 French and United States (US) urbanized catchments, and their 175 rural neighbours. The impact of urbanization on the hydrological behaviour was checked using four metrics. Using a split-sample test, we have compared the performances, parameter distributions, and internal fluxes of GR4H and IHACRES, two conceptual and continuous models running at the hourly time step. Both model structures are based on soil moisture accounting reservoirs (infiltration, runoff, and actual evapotranspiration) and quick flow/slow flow routing components, with no consideration of any specific feature related to urbanization. Results showed: (a) Except for the ratio of streamflow flashiness to precipitation flashiness, the range of hydrological signature metrics in rural catchments encompassed the specificities of urbanized ones. Overall, the urbanized catchments showed higher ratios of mean streamflow to mean precipitation (median values: 0.39 vs. 0.27) and streamflow flashiness to precipitation flashiness (0.13 vs. 0.03), besides lower baseflow index (0.42 vs. 0.62) and shorter characteristic response time (3 vs. 14 hr). (b) The performances of GR4H revealed no significant distinction between rural and urbanized catchments in terms of Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), whereas IHACRES better simulated urbanized catchments, especially during summer. (c) With respect to differences in urbanization level, the GR4H and IHACRES parameters showed different distributions. The differences in parameters were consistent with the differences in hydrological behaviour, which is promising for a model-based assessment of the impact of urbanization. (d) The models agreed less in reproducing the internal fluxes over the urbanized catchments than over the rural ones. These results demonstrate the flexibility of conceptual models to handle the specificities of urbanized catchments.     

Climacogram versus autocovariance and power spectrum in stochastic modelling for Markovian and Hurst–Kolmogorov processes

Three common stochastic tools, the climacogram i.e. variance of the time averaged process over averaging time scale, the autocovariance function and the power spectrum are compared to each other to assess each one’s advantages and disadvantages in stochastic modelling and statistical inference. Although in theory, all three are equivalent to each other (transformations one another expressing second order stochastic properties), in practical application their ability to characterize a geophysical process and their utility as statistical estimators may vary. In the analysis both Markovian and non Markovian stochastic processes, which have exponential and power-type autocovariances, respectively, are used. It is shown that, due to high bias in autocovariance estimation, as well as effects of process discretization and finite sample size, the power spectrum is also prone to bias and discretization errors as well as high uncertainty, which may misrepresent the process behaviour (e.g. Hurst phenomenon) if not taken into account. Moreover, it is shown that the classical climacogram estimator has small error as well as an expected value always positive, well-behaved and close to its mode (most probable value), all of which are important advantages in stochastic model building. In contrast, the power spectrum and the autocovariance do not have some of these properties. Therefore, when building a stochastic model, it seems beneficial to start from the climacogram, rather than the power spectrum or the autocovariance. The results are illustrated by a real world application based on the analysis of a long time series of high-frequency turbulent flow measurements.     

Iron pools of the typical loess–palaeosol sequence and their environmental significance in northeastern China

The iron content can be used as a proxy for the intensity of weathering and pedogenesis, which reflect long-term climate cycles and short-term climate fluctuations and events. In this study, a typical loess–palaeosol sequence for 19.85 m in thickness deposited since 423 ka BP in northeastern China was investigated, and its iron pools were determined. The results reveal that with increasing depth, the abundances of different forms of iron are consistent with the changes in the magnetic susceptibility. Iron (Fe) in all forms is more abundant in the palaeosol than in the loess. The silicate-bound Fe pool (Fer = Fet − Fed) accounts for 60.4% of the total Fe (Fet), indicating weak pedogenesis. The Fe in the crystalline oxides (Fec = Fed − Feo) is predominantly free Fe (Fed), with a crystallinity [Fey = (Fed − Feo) × 100 / Fed] of as high as 97.2%. The coefficients of variation of the different forms of iron associated with the soil depth are as follows: Fec > Fed > poorly crystalline Fe (Feo) > Fer > Fet. The distribution of the forms of Fe throughout the profile is a clear indicator of the pedogenesis. The Fed, Fec, and Fe freeness (freeness = Fed × 100 / Fet) correlate with the magnetic susceptibility. The neoformation of iron (Fe) oxides was closely related to the degree of pedogenesis. More crystalline Fe oxides were found in the soil layers corresponding to warm interglacial periods. We detected variations in the abundance of the Fe pools for characterizing climate fluctuations that occurred in a short period of time. In this study, we demonstrated that when used in combination with dating techniques, morphological development indices, and magnetic susceptibility, the measurement of soil Fe pools can be extremely useful for tracing the iron evolution in the Earth's critical zone and reconstructing past climatic events in loess–palaeosol sequences.     

Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin

Abstract

Pakistan has suffered a devastating flood disaster in 2010. In the Kabul River basin (92 605 km²), large-scale riverine and flash floods caused destructive damage with more than 1100 casualties. This study analysed rainfall–runoff and inundation in the Kabul River basin with a newly developed model that simulates the processes of rainfall–runoff and inundation simultaneously based on two-dimensional diffusion wave equations. The simulation results showed a good agreement with an inundation map produced based on MODIS for large-scale riverine flooding. In addition, the simulation identified flash flood-affected areas, which were confirmed to be severely damaged based on a housing damage distribution map. Since the model is designed to be used even immediately after a disaster, it can be a useful tool for analysing large-scale flooding and to provide supplemental information to agencies for relief operations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Sayama, T., Ozawa, G., Kawakami, T., Nabesaka, S. and Fukami, K., 2012. Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 298–312.     

Sensitivity and fuzzy uncertainty analyses in the determination of SCS-CN parameters from rainfall–runoff data

Spatial and seasonal variations of curve number (CN) and initial abstraction ratio (λ) in a watershed can result in inaccurate runoff volume estimations when using the US Natural Resources Conservation Service (SCS-CN) method with constant values for these parameters. In this paper, parameters of CN and λ are considered as calibration parameters and the sensitivity of estimated runoff to these parameters using the SCS-CN method is scrutinized. To incorporate the uncertainty associated with CN and λ, fuzzy linear regression (FLR) is applied to derive the relationships of CN and λ with rainfall depth (P) by employing a large dataset of storm events from four watersheds in Iran. Results indicate that the proposed approach provides more accuracy in estimation of runoff volume compared to the SCS method with constant values of CN and λ, and gives a straightforward technique for evaluating the hydrological effects of CN, λ, and P on runoff volume.     

Improvement and comparison of the rainfall–runoff methods in SWAT at the monsoonal watershed of Baocun,Eastern China

ABSTRACT

A new physics-based rainfall–runoff method of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was developed, which integrates a water balance (WB) approach with the variable source area (WB-VSA). This approach was further compared with four methods—soil-water-dependent curve number (CN-Soil), evaporation-dependent curve number (CN-ET), Green and Ampt equation (G&A) and WB—in a monsoonal watershed, Eastern China. The regional sensitivity analysis shows that volumetric efficiency coefficient (VE) with river discharges is sensitive to the most parameters of all approaches. The results of model calibration against VE demonstrate that WB-VSA is the most accurate owing to its reflection of the spatial variation of runoff generation as affected by topography and soil properties. Other methods can also mimic baseflow well, but the G&A and CN-ET simulate floods much worse than the saturation excess runoff approaches (WB-VSA, WB and CN-Soil). Meanwhile, CN-Soil as an empirical method fails to simulate groundwater levels. By contrast, WB-VSA captures them best.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae     

Modelling catchment inflows into Lake Victoria: uncertainties in rainfall–runoff modelling for the Nzoia River

Abstract

Climate and soil characteristics vary considerably around the Lake Victoria basin resulting in high spatial and temporal variability in catchment inflows. However, data for estimating the inflows are usually sparsely distributed and error-prone. Therefore, modelled estimates of the flows are highly uncertain, which could explain early difficulties in reproducing the lake water balance. The aim of this study was to improve the estimates of catchment flow to Lake Victoria. The WASMOD model was applied to the Nzoia River, one of the major tributaries to Lake Victoria. Uncertainty was assessed within the GLUE framework. During calibration, log-transformation was performed on both simulated and observed flows. The results showed that, despite its simple structure, WASMOD produces acceptable results for the basin. For a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) threshold of 0.6, the percentage of observations bracketed by simulations (POBS) was 74%, the average relative interval length (ARIL) was 0.93, and the maximum NS value was 0.865. The residuals were shown to be homoscedastic, normally distributed and nearly independent. When the NS threshold was increased to 0.8, POBS decreased to 54% with an improvement of ARIL to 0.49, highlighting the effect of the subjective choice of likelihood threshold.

Citation Kizza, M., Rodhe, A., Xu, C.-Y. & Ntale, H. K. (2011) Modelling catchment inflows into Lake Victoria: uncertainties in rainfall–runoff modelling for the Nzoia River. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1210–1226.     

Discrete modelling of vertical track–soil coupling for vehicle–track dynamics

This paper presents a coupled lumped mass model (CLM model) for the vertical dynamic coupling of railway track through the soil. The well-known Winkler model and its extensions are analysed and fitted on the result obtained numerically with a finite–infinite element model in order to validate the approach in a preliminary step. A mass–spring–damper system with frequency independent parameters is then proposed for the interaction between the foundations, representing the contact area of the track with the soil. The frequency range of track–soil coupling is typically under 100 Hz. Analytical expressions are derived for calibrating the system model with homogeneous and layered half-spaces. Numerical examples are derived, with emphasis on soil stiffness and layering. The dynamic analysis of a track on various foundation models is compared with a complete track–soil model, showing that the proposed CLM model captures the dynamic interaction of the track with the soil and is reliable to predict the vertical track deflection and the reaction forces acting on the soil surface.     

Filtration of Pc1 wave packets in the ionosphere. Conjugated experiment GEOS-1 — husafell and results of numerical modelling

Summary The spectral analysis of an hourly section of a synchronized conjugated record of an ULF signal made on the GEOS-1 satellite and the Husafell Observatory (Iceland) on July 13, 1977, has been carried out. The time variations of the spectral frequency-amplitude characteristics of the Pc1 wave packet in the neighbourhood of f 0.5 s^–1 at both measurement sites were examined. The transmissibility of the amplitude of the total magnetic component of the wave through the ionosphere towards the Earth's surface, found in the frequency range of the packets, varies from 0.03 to 0.07. Moreover, its time behaviour with the development of the micropulsation disturbance was studied. The frequency shift of the packet spectrum centre towards higher frequencies 0.04 s^–1) was determined at the Earth's surface as compared with the satellite conditions. Experimental results served to test the developed automated methods of numerical modelling of ionospheric filtration in the ULF range of Pc1 micropulsations. Good agreement between the experimental and numerical results of the two constructed limiting models of the daytime ionosphere at higher latitudes (low and high solar activity) was achieved. The values of the transmissibility calculated for the Pc1 packet frequencies vary from 0.075 to 0.3 and from 0.025 to 0.06.