Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Assessing landslide exposure in areas with limited landslide information

Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans.     

Regional-scale landslide activity and landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya

Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping is a fundamental procedure for geo-disaster management in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Recently, various landslide susceptibility zonation models have been introduced in Nepal with diverse approaches of assessment. However, validation is still a problem. Additionally, the role of various predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity is still not well understood in the Nepal Himalaya. To address these issues of susceptibility zonation and landslide activity, about 4,000 km² area of central Nepal was selected for regional-scale assessment of landslide activity and susceptibility zonation mapping. In total, 655 new landslides and 9,229 old landslides were identified with the study area with the help of satellite images, aerial photographs, field data and available reports. The old landslide inventory was “blind landslide database” and could not explain the particular rainfall event responsible for the particular landslide. But considering size of the landslide, blind landslide inventory was reclassified into two databases: short-duration high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory and long-duration low-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory. These landslide inventory maps were considered as proxy maps of multiple rainfall event-based landslide inventories. Similarly, all 9,884 landslides were considered for the activity assessment of predisposing causative parameters. For the Nepal Himalaya, slope, slope aspect, geology and road construction activity (anthropogenic cause) were identified as most affective predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity. For susceptibility zonation, multivariate approach was considered and two proxy rainfall event-based landslide databases were used for the logistic regression modelling, while a relatively recent landslide database was used in validation. Two event-based susceptibility zonation maps were merged and rectified to prepare the final susceptibility zonation map and its prediction rate was found to be more than 82 %. From this work, it is concluded that rectification of susceptibility zonation map is very appropriate and reliable. The results of this research contribute to a significant improvement in landslide inventory preparation procedure, susceptibility zonation mapping approaches as well as role of various predisposing causative parameters for the landslide activity.     

The Kostanjek landslide in Zagreb

The large landslide, Kostanjek, on the southern slopes of the mountain, Zagreba ka Gora, in the western suburb of Zagreb was activated in 1963 after some 2.1 × 10⁶ m³ of marl for the cement factory, Croatia, was excavated at the foot of the slope. The geological features (sinclinal structure, faults, hydrogeological conditions, extension of the “Tripoli” marl strata) which had an important role in the formation of the slide, as well as the means of marl exploitation by means of mass blasting, are presented in the paper. The Kostanjek slide involves an urbanized area of some 100 ha. It is estimated that a sliding mass of some 32 × 10⁶ m³ is involved, with a maximum depth of 90 m. Sliding occurs in three levels. The displacements of the surface are 3–6 m. The excavation of marl was stopped in 1988, when a total of 5.3 × 10⁶ m³ of material was excavated. Since then the magnitude of surface displacement per year has decreased. The Kostanjek slide is still active. It is estimated that natural stabilization will take a long time, probably decades. Analyses of possible measures for the stabilization of movements suggested that preventive drainage with continuous observation of the slide is most suitable.     

Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal

Nepal is a mountainous, less developed kingdom that straddles the boundary between the Indian and Himalayan tectonic plates. In Nepal, landslides represent a major constraint on development, causing high levels of economic loss and substantial numbers of fatalities each year. There is a general consensus that the impacts of landslides in countries such as Nepal are increasing with time, but until now there has been little or no quantitative data to support this view, or to explain the causes of the increases. In this paper, a database of landslide fatalities in Nepal has been compiled and analysed for the period 1978–2005. The database suggests that there is a high level of variability in the occurrence of landslides from year to year, but that the overall trend is upward. Analyses of the trends in the data suggest that there is a cyclicity in the occurrence of landslide fatalities that strongly mirrors the cyclicity observed in the SW (summer) monsoon in South Asia. Perhaps surprisingly the relationship is inverse, but this is explained through an inverse relationship between monsoon strength and the amount of precipitation in the Hill District areas of Nepal. It is also clear that in recent years the number of fatalities has increased dramatically over and above the effects of the monsoon cycle. Three explanations are explored for this: land-use change, the effects of the ongoing civil war in Nepal, and road building. It is concluded that a major component of the generally upward trend in landslide impact probably results from the rural road-building programme, and its attendant changes to physical and natural systems.     

Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data

In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.     

Evolution of landslide hotspots in Taiwan

Among the disasters facing Taiwan, earthquakes and typhoons incur the greatest monetary losses, and landslide disasters inflict the greatest damage in mountainous areas. The nationwide landslide susceptibility map gives an indication of where landslides are likely to occur in the future; however, there is no objective index indicating the location of landslide hotspots. In this study, we used statistical analysis to locate landslide hotspots in catchments in Taiwan. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the existence of landslide clusters between 2003 and 2012 and identified a concentration of landslide hotspots in the eastern part of Central Taiwan. The extreme rainfall brought by typhoon Morakot also led to the formation of new landslide hotspots in Southern Taiwan. This study provides a valuable reference explaining changes in landslide hotspots and identifying areas of high hotspot concentration to facilitate the formulation of strategies to deal with landslide risk.     

滑坡防治前后滑带土基质吸力特征研究

降雨使坡内地下水位上升,坡体的基质吸力和暂态孔隙水压力会随着降雨过程和时间呈现不同的变化趋势。采用抗滑桩、挡墙等工程防治后,针对滑坡体滑带土的性质变化以及抗滑结构的设置是否会影响到滑坡体的自然排水通道,导致坡体地下水位的抬升,从而影响滑坡防治效果等问题进行了研究。以鹰厦线K290滑坡为主线,通过开展滑坡饱和-非饱和渗流模型试验与数值分析,探讨了降雨入渗及地下水位变化下滑坡体及滑带土体积含水率与基质吸力的变化规律,以及其对滑坡防治前后坡体渗流场的影响。在此基础上,探讨了滑带土基质吸力对抗剪强度的贡献。研究表明：防治前后滑坡体及滑带土基质吸力受降雨强度等条件影响明显,不同深度处滑带土基质吸力变化呈现不同的变化规律,在土质滑坡的防治中应考虑抗滑桩的布置对滑带土性质的影响。     

The Portuguese bend landslide

The Portuguese Bend landslide, in coastal southern California, is an active, slow-moving mass of blocks and debris that extends from the shoreline to moderate altitudes along part of the southerly margin of the Palos Verdes Hills. These hills form a peninsula that is underlain by Cenozoic sedimentary and volcanic rocks draped anticlinally over a core of Mesozoic schist. In the southerly parts of the peninsula, inherently weak units in the Altamira Shale Member of the Miocene Monterey Formation dip seaward in general concordance with the ground surface. Ground failure has been widespread in this area. It evidently began in mid- to late-Pleistocene time, and it has continued intermittently to the present.

The Portuguese Bend landslide represents a reactivation of movement of the eastern part of a complex of prehistoric landslides occupying an area of approximately two square miles. This latest episode of movement began in 1956, presumably in response to placement of fill during a road construction project. The active slide subsequently was enlarged by sequential failure of adjoining blocks of ground, and by September 1969 about 54,500,000 metric tons of debris was slowly moving downslope in an area of approximately 104 ha. Movement has been continuous since recent failure began in 1956, although the velocity of the active slide decreased markedly after that year. Between 1962 and 1972 the velocity fluctuated only slightly about an average value of about 1 cm per day.

The active slide is an irregular prism, roughly triangular in plan view. The southern side of the triangle trends approximately 1100 m east-west along a stretch of shoreline that essentially coincides with the toe of the slide. The other two sides of the triangle trend northeast and northwest from the ends of the toe and meet about 1200 m north of the shoreline. The thickness of the moving mass differs considerably from one place to another, reflecting both topographic irregularities and major undulations in the underlying surface of movement. The maximum thickness is approximately 75 m.

Movement is occurring along a distinct basal failure surface. The eastern part of the slide is underlain by bedrock, and is bordered by bedrock with a general structure that limits further deep-seated propagation of failure to the east and northeast. In contrast, the western part of the slide is underlain and bordered by extensive ancient landslide deposits that are marginally stable. Further encroachment of the active slide westward and northwestward into these materials was viewed as a distinct possibility at the time the dissertation was prepared and has occurred since then.

Continued movement of the Portuguese Bend landslide since 1956 has been due to four main factors. A rise in the water table during the period 1957–1968 has been documented in the northwestern part of the moving mass and is attributable mainly to infiltration of surface runoff entering numerous open fissures that cut the surface of the slide. The toe of the active slide daylights along the shoreline and is subjected to storm-wave erosion, so that any natural build-up of resisting forces is prevented in this area. The redistribution of mass as the slide has moved along an undulatory failure surface has been responsible for local fluctuations in the driving and resisting forces. Finally, smoothing of irregularities in the failure surface by the moving slide mass must have decreased some of the forces resisting movement.     

基于分形的滑坡易发程度区划方法

本文发展了一种基于分形统计的滑坡易发程度评价方法,该方法仅使用已有的滑坡数据,首先通过分形统计获得滑坡分布的分形丛集关系,再通过GIS的空间操作与分析生成滑坡易发程度区划图。提出一种对滑坡易发程度区划图的可信度和预测效果进行评价的方法。本文介绍了这些方法及其在浙江地区应用的结果。     

The chaotic characteristics of landslide evolution: a case study of Xintan landslide

A new method based on the chaos theory is used to assess the evolution process of a slope system. The method is applied to the Xintan landslide and the results show: (1) the slope movement is a complex process of the slope going in and out of the stable and chaotic state; (2) the method reveals the evolution process of the slope pointing to the slope failure while the observed movement shows a simple monotonic increase with time; (3) the method is not sufficiently mature to precisely predict the time of failure but it has potential for improvement with further research and more field data for analysis.     

Seismic landslide simulations in discontinuous deformation analysis

Discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) is a numerical approach used to simulate the post-failure behavior of a blocky assembly. Three available algorithms incorporate seismic impacts into DDA simulations for earthquake-induced slope failure. The following methods are used: directly applying time-dependent accelerations to falling/sliding blocks (Method 1); adding time-dependent accelerations to base block (Method 2); and time-dependently constraining seismic displacements of the base block (Method 3). However, incorrect absolute movements of falling/sliding and base blocks were obtained using Method 1. Additionally, relative movements between falling/sliding blocks and the base block are opposite to those simulated by the other two algorithms—Methods 2 and 3. Since locating an earthquake-induced landslide before an earthquake is extremely difficult, the seismic movements of base rock are recorded. Method 1 applies recorded seismic data to sliding blocks in conflict with d’Alembert’s principle of mechanics. Additionally, in Method 2, when the computation time step must be longer than the time in seismic data, computational results reveal abnormal base block displacements due to the non-zero velocity recorded at the end time of seismic data in seismic DDA. In this study, a novel algorithm to diminish the velocity of the base rock in the seismic analysis is utilized to modify Method 2. Furthermore, this work confirms that DDA with the modified Methods 2 and 3 is a practical approach for earthquake-induced landslide simulations.     

国际滑坡研究的新进展

本文根据２０００年６月２６～３０日在英国如开的第八届国际滑坡学术讨论会的主题报告,分组报千和会议文集所报导的近几年来国际滑坡的最新研究成果,对滑坡与全球气候变化、滑坡灾害风险评价、滑坡机制、海岸带滑坡和海底滑坡五个方面作了简要介绍与分析,这些方面的成果代表了当前国际滑坡研究的进展和动态,对促进我国今后的滑坡理论和灾害防治研究将会起到一定的帮助作用。     

A landslide in stiff,intact clay

A landslide in a stiff clay formation, interrupting the excavation of a tunnel for a major railway in Sicily, is reported. Limit equilibrium and FEM undrained and drained analyses of the slope before tunnel excavation agree in showing that the slope was stable with a relatively high factor of safety and the critical slip surface is located well above the tunnel. The undrained stability of the tunnel checked both via FEM and via standard analytical solutions for face stability is also verified. The FEM analyses of the slope have been repeated considering the excavation of the tunnel in undrained and drained conditions. The advancement of the tunnel face is simulated in a plane strain analysis by the Panet method. In undrained conditions, the system keeps stable. In drained conditions with a stress release factor of 50 %, the slope is on the verge of failing with a very low safety factor, while with a stress release factor of 80 %, it fails following a complex mechanism that matches the observed failure surface. These findings are discussed and some conclusions attempted.     

格构锚固技术在治理滑坡中的应用

介绍了格构锚固的特点、结构机理及其在滑坡防治中的作用。格构锚固技术具有较好地适应地形变化、受力明确、加固效果可靠、施工速度快、后期维护方便和美化环境等优点。并以三峡库区兴山县复建公路黄树岭滑坡为例,说明格构锚固在滑坡防治应用中具有较好的效果。     

宝鸡簸箕山滑坡地震勘探

宝鸡簸箕山滑坡是宝鸡市区的一个大型滑坡,危及许多市民及建筑的安全。为进一步了解滑坡体的细微结构及其滑面形态,中奥双方于1999年和2000年两次对簸箕山滑坡进行了地震勘探。本文详细介绍了地震勘探测线布设、各条测线的勘探及分析、解释结果,为该滑坡的科学治理提供了背景性参考资料。     

Uncertainty pattern in landslide susceptibility prediction modelling: Effects of different landslide boundaries and spatial shape expressions

In some studies on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), landslide boundary and spatial shape characteristics have been expressed in the form of points or circles in the landslide inventory instead of the accurate polygon form. Different expressions of landslide boundaries and spatial shapes may lead to substantial differences in the distribution of predicted landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs); moreover, the presence of irregular landslide boundaries and spatial shapes introduces uncertainties into the LSM. To address this issue by accurately drawing polygonal boundaries based on LSM, the uncertainty patterns of LSM modelling under two different landslide boundaries and spatial shapes, such as landslide points and circles, are compared. Within the research area of Ruijin City in China, a total of 370 landslides with accurate boundary information are obtained, and 10 environmental factors, such as slope and lithology, are selected. Then, correlation analyses between the landslide boundary shapes and selected environmental factors are performed via the frequency ratio (FR) method. Next, a support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) based on landslide points, circles and accurate landslide polygons are constructed as point-, circle- and polygon-based SVM and RF models, respectively, to address LSM. Finally, the prediction capabilities of the above models are compared by computing their statistical accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the uncertainties of the predicted LSIs under the above models are discussed. The results show that using polygonal surfaces with a higher reliability and accuracy to express the landslide boundary and spatial shape can provide a markedly improved LSM accuracy, compared to those based on the points and circles. Moreover, a higher degree of uncertainty of LSM modelling is present in the expression of points because there are too few grid units acting as model input variables. Additionally, the expression of the landslide boundary as circles introduces errors in measurement and is not as accurate as the polygonal boundary in most LSM modelling cases. In addition, the results under different conditions show that the polygon-based models have a higher LSM accuracy, with lower mean values and larger standard deviations compared with the point- and circle-based models. Finally, the overall LSM accuracy of the RF is superior to that of the SVM, and similar patterns of landslide boundary and spatial shape affecting the LSM modelling are reflected in the SVM and RF models.     

斜坡临滑形变能释放与滑体起程速度关系的探讨

斜坡内聚集的巨大剪切形变能在临滑时释放,坡体能量释放率具有力的量纲,在坡体能量释放率幅值大于锁固段潜滑带抗剪强度幅值的情况下,坡体临滑释放的形变能将大于潜滑带岩体破裂需要的能量,所大于的部份将转变成滑体动能,滑动为剧动式滑坡;反之,则为缓动式滑坡。剧动式滑坡横截面上的弹冲速度与该点切应力的大小成正比。潜滑面附近坡体介质的切应力和切应变能密度最大,滑动时获得的弹冲速度也最大。导得蕴涵丰富信息量的斜坡弹性势能变化率曲线及其表达式,通过解析及Matlab图解形式对坡体的形变能聚集、临滑形变能释放量及其与滑体启动速度、启动方式进行了阐述。