Regional-scale landslide activity and landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya

Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping is a fundamental procedure for geo-disaster management in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Recently, various landslide susceptibility zonation models have been introduced in Nepal with diverse approaches of assessment. However, validation is still a problem. Additionally, the role of various predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity is still not well understood in the Nepal Himalaya. To address these issues of susceptibility zonation and landslide activity, about 4,000 km² area of central Nepal was selected for regional-scale assessment of landslide activity and susceptibility zonation mapping. In total, 655 new landslides and 9,229 old landslides were identified with the study area with the help of satellite images, aerial photographs, field data and available reports. The old landslide inventory was “blind landslide database” and could not explain the particular rainfall event responsible for the particular landslide. But considering size of the landslide, blind landslide inventory was reclassified into two databases: short-duration high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory and long-duration low-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory. These landslide inventory maps were considered as proxy maps of multiple rainfall event-based landslide inventories. Similarly, all 9,884 landslides were considered for the activity assessment of predisposing causative parameters. For the Nepal Himalaya, slope, slope aspect, geology and road construction activity (anthropogenic cause) were identified as most affective predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity. For susceptibility zonation, multivariate approach was considered and two proxy rainfall event-based landslide databases were used for the logistic regression modelling, while a relatively recent landslide database was used in validation. Two event-based susceptibility zonation maps were merged and rectified to prepare the final susceptibility zonation map and its prediction rate was found to be more than 82 %. From this work, it is concluded that rectification of susceptibility zonation map is very appropriate and reliable. The results of this research contribute to a significant improvement in landslide inventory preparation procedure, susceptibility zonation mapping approaches as well as role of various predisposing causative parameters for the landslide activity.     

Structural trends and palaeogeography of the central and western Sicily belt: new insights

The geology of the Sicilian mainland is summarized by N–S geological sections. A continuous late Cenozoic orogenic belt through central and western Sicily resulted from a complex deformative history, recorded by several tectonic events. The deformation mainly involved the sedimentary cover of the old African continental margin, formed in a large basinal area, bordered at its southern margin by a shallow-water carbonate environment attached to Gondwana. The orogenic belt involves a complex architecture of thrust systems, of different size, geometry and palaeogeographical origin. Deformation, which mainly developed in the earlier stages of thrusting in the basinal rock assemblages, mainly gave rise to a stack of three different duplex structures, respectively, composed of Palaeozoic, Mesozoic–Palaeogene and Neogene strata. Large-scale clockwise rotation of the thrusts predated transpressional movements in the hinterland during the latest Miocene to Pliocene. High- angle reverse faults, with lateral components, modified earlier tectonic contacts within the allochthons. Contemporaneous southwards- directed imbrications affected the external southern areas, progressively incorporating foreland and piggyback basirts. The stratigraphic relationships of basin-fills to the tectonic structures reveals that reactivation processes have been active during the last Plio-Pleistocene.     

Subglacial blowouts in western Canada: insights into extreme meltwater pressures and hydrofracturing

This study interprets deformations of indurated 10s of metres thick bedrock strata by subglacial meltwater pressures at maximum levels, resulting in types of hydrodynamic structures not previously recognized. The structures provide insights into the range of extreme pressures possible with the backup of meltwaters sufficient to deform multi‐metre thick indurated beds, unlike elsewhere. Subglacial meltwater flows into the subsurface below the 50–100 m thick bitumen platform aquiclude of the Cretaceous Athabasca Oil Sands deposit were driven by the hydraulic head of the 1.5‐km‐thick Laurentide Ice Sheet. These meltwaters over‐pressured the regional Devonian aquifer waters, but the low permeability of the aquifer below the site of the Muskeg River Mine was insufficient to accommodate the voluminous influxes of subglacial meltwater. The resulting meltwater flows backed‐up, resulting in elevating aquifer pressures to maximum levels along the margins of the underlying Devonian Keg River reef mound and within water‐saturated Cretaceous sand beds offset to the east. The meltwater pressure build to extreme levels hydrofractured strata at sites along the margins of the Keg River mound preconditioned by dissolution‐induced subsidence in underlying salt beds. Release of the confining pressure upon withdrawal of the Laurentide Ice Sheet resulted in 45‐m‐high open blowout structures that punctured the bitumen platform at sites above the northern margin of the Keg River mound. Other blowout chimney sites above the southern margin of the mound were plugged because of insufficient pressure build to clear vents of all ejecta. Concurrently, pressured meltwater flows along the eastern margin resulted in dykes that cross‐cut and buckled Devonian limestone beds. Some dykes extended into overlying water‐saturated unconsolidated Cretaceous sand beds, channelling pressured water and hydroplastic mudflows that dissipated the extreme meltwater flow pressures and prevented puncturing of the overlying bitumen platform. These unusual deformation structures in western Canada resulted from catastrophic failure of hydrofractured rock zones responding to extreme meltwater pressures, in contrast to unconsolidated sediment deformations resulting from only moderately elevated meltwater pressures commonly observed elsewhere.     

Three decades of IGCP in China

China celebrated the 30th anniversary of its participation in the International Geological Correlation Programme (IGCP) on November 11, 2003 in Beijing. About 200 people from the Ministry of Land and Resources.Ministry of Science and Technology, China Seismology Bureau, NSFC, CNPC.SINOPEC CORP., China Geological Survey, Chinese Academy of Geological Sci-     

The Siwaliks of western Nepal: I. Geometry and kinematics

The Siwalik Group which forms the southern zone of the Himalayan orogen, constitutes the deformed part of the Neogene foreland basin situated above the downflexed Indian lithosphere. It forms the outer part of the thin-skinned thrust belt of the Himalaya, a belt where the faults branch off a major décollement (MD) that is the external part of the basal detachment of Himalayan thrust belt. This décollement is located beneath 13 Ma sediments in far-western Nepal, and beneath 14.6 Ma sediments in mid-western Nepal, i.e., above the base of the Siwalik Group. Unconformities have been observed in the upper Siwalik member of western Nepal both on satellite images and in the field, and suggest that tectonics has affected the frontal part of the outer belt since more than 1.8 Ma. Several north dipping thrusts delineate tectonic boundaries in the Siwalik Group of western Nepal. The Main Dun Thrust (MDT) is formed by a succession of 4 laterally relayed thrusts, and the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) is formed by three segments that die out laterally in propagating folds or branch and relay faults along lateral transfer zones. One of the major transfer zones is the West Dang Transfer Zone (WDTZ), which has a north-northeast strike and is formed by strike-slip faults, sigmoid folds and sigmoid reverse faults. The width of the outer belt of the Himalaya varies from 25 km west of the WDTZ to 40 km east of the WDTZ. The WDTZ is probably related to an underlying fault that induces: (a) a change of the stratigraphic thickness of the Siwalik members involved in the thin-skinned thrust belt, and particularly of the middle Siwalik member; (b) an increase, from west to east, of the depth of the décollement level; and (c) a lateral ramp that transfers displacement from one thrust to another. Large wedge-top basins (Duns) of western Nepal have developed east of the WDTZ. The superposition of two décollement levels in the lower Siwalik member is clear in a large portion of the Siwalik group of western Nepal where it induces duplexes development. The duplexes are formed either by far-travelled horses that crop out at the hangingwall of the Internal Décollement Thrust (ID) to the south of the Main Boundary Thrust, or by horses that remain hidden below the middle Siwaliks or Lesser Himalayan rocks. Most of the thrusts sheets of the outer belt of western Nepal have moved toward the S–SW and balanced cross-sections show at least 40 km shortening through the outer belt. This value probably under-estimates the shortening because erosion has removed the hangingwall cut-off of the Siwalik series. The mean shortening rate has been 17 mm/yr in the outer belt for the last 2.3 Ma.     

DEM-based deterministic landslide hazard analysis in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal

In Nepal, people live in widely spread settlements in the fragile Himalayan terrains, and suffer more from landslides than from any other type of natural disaster. The small-scale rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal are generally shallow (about 0.5 to 2.5 m) and are triggered by changes in the physical property of soil layers during rainfall. The relation between landslides and slope hydrology has received little attention in Himalayan landslide research. Thus, this paper deals with the probability of slope failure during extreme rainfall events by considering a digital elevation model (DEM)-based hydrological model for soil saturation depth and an infinite slope stability model. Deterministic distributed analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) was carried out to calculate the probability of slope failure. A simple method of error propagation was used to calculate the variance of the safety factors and the probability of failure. When normally distributed failure probability values were checked against existing landslides, it was found that more than 50% of the pixels of existing landslides coincided with a high calculated probability of failure. Although the deterministic distributed analysis has certain drawbacks, as described by previous researchers, this study concluded that the calculated failure probability can be utilised to predict the probability of slope failure in Himalayan terrain during extreme rainfall events.     

Metabasalts from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: new insights into hydrothermal systems in slow-spreading crust

An extensive suite of hydrothermally altered rocks were recovered byAlvin and dredging along the MARK [Mid-Atlantic Ridge, south of the Kane Fracture Zone (23–24°N)] where detachment faulting has provided a window into the crustal component of hydrothermal systems. Rocks of basaltic composition are altered to two assemblages with these characteristics: (i) type I: albitic plagioclase (An_02–10)+mixed-layer smectite/chlorite or chlorite±actinolite±quartz±sphene, <10% of the clinopyroxene is altered, and there is no trace metal mobility; (ii) type II: plagioclase (An_10–30)+amphibole (actinolite-magnesio-hornblende) +chlorite+sphene, >20% of the clinopyroxene is altered, and Cu and Zn are leached. The geochemical signature of these alteration types reflects the relative proportion and composition of secondary minerals, and the degree of alteration of primary phases, and does not show simple predictive relationships. Element mobilities indicate that both alteration types formed at low water/rock ratios. The MARK assemblages are typical of the greenschist and transition to the amphibolite facies, and represent two distinct, albeit overlapping, temperature regimes: type I-180 to 300°C and type II-250 to 450°C. By analogy with DSDP/ODP Hole 504B and many ophiolites, the MARK metabasalts were altered within the downwelling limb of a hydrothermal cell and type I and II samples formed in the upper and lower portions of the sheeted like complex, respectively. Episodic magmatic and hydrothermal events at slow-spreading ridges suggest that these observed mineral assemblages represent the cumulative effects of more than one hydrothermal event. Groundmass and vein assemblages in the MARK metabasalts indicate either that alteration conditions did not change during successive hydrothermal events or that these assemblages record only the highest temperature event. Lack of retrograde reactions or overprinting of lower temperature assemblages (e.g., zeolites) suggests that there is a continuum in alteration conditions while crustal segments remain in the ridge axis environment. The type II samples may be representative of thereaction zone where compositions of hydrothermal fluids actively venting at the seafloor today become fixed. This prediction necessitates interaction between hydrothermal fluids and intersertal glass and/or mafic phases, in addition to plagioclase, in order to produce the observed range in vented fluid pH.     

Assessment of co-seismic landslide susceptibility using LR and ANCOVA in Barpak region,Nepal

Nepal was affected by a catastrophic earthquake with Mw 7.8 on 25th April, 2015 with its epicenter in the central part of Barpak village. A number of co-seismic landslides were triggered by the main shock of the event and associated aftershocks. Due to the rugged topography and vicinity of the main shock, the village was extremely affected by co-seismic landslides. In total, 59 landslides were identified using Google Earth and were verified during the field survey in Barpak village. Furthermore, 11 conditioning factors, including Peak ground acceleration (PGA), epicenter proximity, fault proximity, geology, slope, elevation, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index, drainage proximity and the sediment transport index were selected as independent variables for analysis. In this study, logistic regression (LR) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) models were used and their performance was assessed. Finally, the landslide susceptibility classes were produced and an evaluation of models was done by using receiver operating characteristic curves. The area under the curve for LR and ANCOVA showed 85.38 and 78.4% accuracy, respectively. Based on the overall assessments, the LR model was more accurate than the ANCOVA model for co-seismic landslide prediction in the study area. The result of this study can be used to mitigate landslide-induced hazards and for land-use planning.     

Natural hazards and climate change are not drivers of disasters

Natural Hazards - Many nations face challenges in assessing, understanding, and responding to the time-dependent nature of disaster risk. Changes in the intensity of occurrences of extreme events...     

Evaluation and comparison of GIS based landslide susceptibility mapping procedures in Kulekhani watershed, Nepal

The goal of this paper is to evaluate and compare the consistency of GIS-based heuristic and bivariate landslide susceptibility mapping techniques in the Himalayan region, taking the Kulekhani watershed of central Nepal as an example. For this purpose, a heuristic and two statistical bivariate landslide susceptibility mapping methods are applied, and three separate landslide susceptibility zonation maps are produced. The maps are compared using three approaches: landslide density analysis, success rate analysis, and agreed area analysis. A comparison of the values obtained from landslide density analysis and the curves of success rate analysis indicate that the two bivariate methods produce almost identical results, whereas the map produced with the heuristic method differs significantly from the others. On the other hand, the agreed area analysis highlights significant spatial differences in the maps obtained from the three methods. Although the three approaches evaluate the consistency of susceptibility maps, only the agreed area analysis is capable of spatially comparing them. Hence, this approach proves to be more suitable for spatially and quantitatively evaluating the consistency of various landslide susceptibility zonation maps.     

The lithospheric transition between the Delamerian and Lachlan orogens in western Victoria: new insights from 3D magnetotelluric imaging

The magnetotelluric (MT) method was used to image the crust and upper mantle beneath the Delamerian and Lachlan orogens in western Victoria, Australia. During the Cambrian time period, this region changed from being the extended passive margin of Proterozoic Australia into an Andean-style convergent margin that progressively began to accrete younger oceanic terranes. Several broadband MT transects, which were collected in stages along coincident deep (full crust imaging) seismic reflection lines, have now been combined to create a continuous 500 km east–west transect over the Delamerian–Lachlan transition region in the Stawell Zone. We present the electrical resistivity structure of the lithosphere using both 3D and 2D inversion methods. Additionally, 1D inversions of long-period AusLAMP (Australian Lithospheric Architecture Magnetotelluric Project) MT data on a 55 km regionally spaced grid were used to provide starting constraints for the 3D inversion of the 2D profile. The Delamerian to Lachlan Orogen transition region coincides with the Mortlake Discontinuity, which marks an isotopic discontinuity in Cenozoic basalts, with higher strontium isotope enrichment ratios in the Lachlan Orogen relative to the Delamerian Orogen. Phase tensor ellipses of the MT data reveal a distinct change in electrical resistivity structure near the location of the Mortlake Discontinuity, and results of 3D and 2D inversions along the MT profile image a more conductive lower crust and upper mantle beneath the Lachlan Orogen than the Delamerian Orogen. Increased conductivity is commonly ascribed to mantle enrichment and thus supports the notion that the isotope enrichment of the Cenozoic basalts at least partially reflects an enriched mantle source rather than crustal contamination. Fault slivers of the lower crust from the more conductive Lachlan region expose Cambrian boninites and island arc andesites indicative of subduction, a process that can enrich the mantle isotopically, and also electrically, by introducing carbon (graphite) and water (hydrogen).     

The Siwaliks of western Nepal: II. Mechanics of the thrust wedge

Comparison between numerical models and structural data is used for a better understanding of the evolution of the Siwalik thrust belt of western Nepal. The numerical model involves discontinuities within a critical wedge model, a kinematic forward model of serial cross sections, and a linear diffusion algorithm to simulate erosion and sedimentation. In western Nepal, large Piggy-back basins (Duns) are located above thick thrust sheets that involve more than 5500 m of the Neogene Siwalik Group, whereas Piggy-back basin sedimentation is less developed above thinner thrust sheets (4300 m thick). Numerical model results suggest that thrust sheet thickness and extension of wedge-top basins are both related to an increase of the basal décollement dip beneath the duns. The West Dang Transfer zone (WDTZ) is a N–NE trending tectonic lineament that limits the westward extent of the large Piggy-back basins of mid-western Nepal and is linked to a thickening of the Himalayan wedge eastward. The WDTZ also affects the seismotectonics pattern, the geometry of the thrust front, the lateral extent of Lesser Himalayan thrust sheets, and the subsidence of the foreland basin during middle Siwalik sedimentation. Numerical models suggest that the individualisation of the Piggy-back basins at the transition between the middle Siwalik and upper Siwaliks followed the deposition of the middle Siwaliks that induced a geometry of the foreland basin close to the critical taper. As WDTZ induces an E–W thickning of the Himalayan wedge, it could also induce a northward shift of the leading edge of the ductile deformation above the basal detachment in Greater Himalayas of far-western Nepal. Field data locally suggest episodic out-off-sequence thrusting in the frontal thrust belt of western Nepal, whereas numerical results suggests that episodic out-off sequence reactivation could be a general characteristic of the Himalayan wedge evolution often hidden by erosion.     

Late Cenozoic volcanic activity in western Georgia: Evidence from new isotope geochronological data

The products of volcanic activity from the Kutaisi area and Guria (western Georgia) were studied in terms of isotope geochronology to determine the age of rocks and to confirm their attribution to Cenozoic formations. The results obtained show that the erupted rocks in the Kutaisi area were formed during the three pulses of Mesozoic volcanic activity: the Bajocian, Kimmeridgian-Tithonian, and Turonian-Santonian. It was shown that no displays of Late Cenozoic volcanism occurred in this region of the western Georgia. Because of this, its inclusion into the Central Georgian neovolcanic province, earlier supposed, seems to be improper. By the data of isotope geochronology, Guria is the only region of western Georgia where volcanic activity occurred in post-Paleogene period. Two pulses of young volcanism were revealed: of about 15.5 and 9–7.5 My. The former was related to the introduction of syenite intrusion, and the latter, to subaqueous exudation of subalkaline Neogene lavas. All the outcrops of Neogene rocks we found and dated in Guria fit within the well-pronounced sublatitudinal linear band which probably represents the occurrence in the Middle Miocene of a local zone of extension appearing under conditions of total compression during the collision of the Eurasian and Arabian lithospheric plates.

     

31a《沉积学报》论文发表趋势:基于文献计量分析的结果与启示

基础研究和应用基础研究的创新成果主要以论文的形式发表在相关专业期刊上.《沉积学报》作为国内集中体现沉积学、沉积矿产和地球化学等方面创新性研究成果的载体,至今已创刊31年.本文利用数据库提供的文献详细信息,从文献计量分析的角度,透视《沉积学报》创刊31年来论文的发表趋势.基于对《沉积学报》刊载论文的数量、学科分类、研究地域、核心作者群、研究热点等指标的年际分布量化,分析了该刊所关注的研究内容与研究方向变革,探讨了国内从事该领域研究的组织机构分布与研究人员组成.结果表明,31年来,《沉积学报》的论文发表数量总体呈阶段性波动增长趋势;发文机构具有显著的地质、矿产、石油学科相关属性,地域相关性弱;沉积环境与沉积体系、碳酸盐岩、成岩作用、层序地层学、沉积盆地分析与模拟、沉积作用、油气储层沉积学、矿床沉积学、有机地球化学和元素同位素地球化学是《沉积学报》的热点和重点领域.基于引文分析(CSCD和SCIE引用)的结果表明,《沉积学报》刊载论文被引用频次和期刊影响因子不断提高,进一步说明了学界对《沉积学报》的关注程度不断加强.最主要资助来源为国家自然科学基金,占统计总量的40%.另外,由于新兴研究力量的兴起和研究者提高国际影响力的需求,导致该刊尚未形成核心作者群,这对《沉积学报》未来的发展提出了新的机遇与挑战.     

Multicomponent magnetization in western Dolpo (Tethyan Himalaya, Nepal): tectonic implications

A palaeomagnetic study has been carried out in the Tethyan Himalaya (TH; the northern margin of Greater India). Twenty-six palaeomagnetic sites have been sampled in Triassic low-grade metasediments of western Dolpo. Two remanent components have been identified. A pyrrhotite component, characterized by unblocking temperatures of 270–335 °C, yields an in situ mean direction of D=191.7°, I=−30.9° (k=29.5, α₉₅=5.7°, N=23 sites). The component fails the fold test at the 99% confidence level (k_{in situ}/k_bed=6.9) and is therefore of postfolding origin. For reason of the low metamorphic grade, this pyrrhotite magnetization is believed to be of thermo-chemical origin. Geochronological data and inclination matching indicate an acquisition age around 35 Ma. The second remanence component has higher unblocking temperatures (>400 °C and up to 500–580 °C range) and resides in magnetite. A positive fold test and comparison with expected Triassic palaeomagnetic directions suggest a primary origin.The postfolding character of the pyrrhotite component, and its interpreted age of remanence acquisition, implies that the main Himalayan folding is older than 35 Ma in the western Dolpo area. This study also suggests that the second metamorphic event (Neo-Himalayan) was more significant in the Dolpo area than the first (Eo-Himalayan) one.A clockwise rotation of 10–15° is inferred from the pyrrhotite component, which is compatible with oroclinal bending and/or rotational underthrusting models. This rotation is also supported by the magnetite component, indicating that no rotation of the Tethyan Himalaya relative to India took place before 35 Ma.     

Plio–Pleistocene climate evolution: trends and transitions in glacial cycle dynamics

We describe the evolution of climate system dynamics by examining the climate response to changes in obliquity and precession over the last 5.3 Myr. In particular, we examine changes in the shape of glacial cycles and the power of obliquity and precession response in benthic δ¹⁸O. When the exponential trend in δ¹⁸O variance is removed, its spectral power exhibits strong, proportional responses to amplitude modulations in orbital forcing over most of the Plio–Pleistocene. Precession responses correlate with modulations in forcing for the last 5 Myr, but 41-kyr response is sensitive to obliquity modulation only before 1.4 Myr. Where responses are sensitive to modulations in forcing, we demonstrate that glacial cycles are orbitally forced rather than being self-sustained or paced by orbital changes. The shapes of glacial cycles have several nonlinear properties, which may be indicative of glacial–interglacial differences in climate sensitivity or response time. The “saw-tooth” asymmetry of glacial cycles first appears shortly after the onset of major northern hemisphere glaciation, and the relative duration of interglacial stages decreases at 1.4 Myr. Collectively, trends in the shape of glacial cycles and the sensitivity of δ¹⁸O to obliquity and precession are suggestive of major transitions in climate dynamics at approximately 2.5 and 1.4 Myr but show no significant change associated with the appearance of strong 100-kyr cycles during the mid-Pleistocene transition.     

Diagnosis of landslide risk for individual buildings: insights from Prahova Subcarpathians,Romania

The aim of this study is to quantify the landslide risk for individual buildings using spatial data in a GIS environment. A landslide-prone area from Prahova Rivers’ Subcarpathian Valley was chosen because of its associated landslide hazards and its impact upon human settlements and activities. The bivariate landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was applied to calculate the spatial probability of landslides occurrence. The Landslide Susceptibility Index map was produced by numerically adding the weighted thematic maps for slope gradient and aspect, water table, soil texture, lithology, built environment and land use. Validation curves were obtained using the random-split strategy for two combinations of variables: (a) all seven variables and (b) three variables which showed highest individual success rates with respect to landslides occurrences (slope gradient, water table and land use). The principal pre-disposing factors were found to be slope steepness and groundwater table. Vulnerability was established as the degree of loss to individual buildings resulting from a potential damaging landslide with a given return period in an area. Risk was calculated by multiplying the spatial probability of landslides by the vulnerability for each building and summing up the losses for the selected return period.     

Evaluation of the consistency of landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study from the Kankai watershed in east Nepal

GIS-based landslide susceptibility maps for the Kankai watershed in east Nepal are developed using the frequency ratio method and the multiple linear regression technique. The maps are derived from comparing observed landslides with possible causative factors: slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, relative relief, distance from drainage, land use, geology, distance from faults and mean annual rainfall. The consistency of the maps is evaluated using landslide density analysis, success rate analysis and spatially agreed area approach. The first two analyses produce almost identical quantitative results, whereas the last approach is able to reveal spatial differences between the maps and also to improve predictions in the agreed high landslide-susceptible area.