Crustal structure in northern margin of Tianshan mountains and seismotectonics of the 1906 Manas earthquake

Introduction The Tianshan orogenic belt between the Tarim and Junggar basins has re-uplifted in Cenozoic due to the collision and the northwards push-compression of Asia-India plate. The special active tectonic zones have been formed along both south and north margins of the Tianshan mountains (FENG, et al, 1991). The Tianshan seismic belt is one of the major seismic belts in China. A se-ries of strong earthquakes occurred in two flanks of the Tianshan mountains in 20th century, such as …     

Magnetostratigraphy of the late Cenozoic Laojunmiao anticline in the northern Qilian Mountains and its implications for the northern Tibetan Plateau uplift

The uplift process of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau holds the key to understand the dynamic mechanisms of continental crust shortening and mountain-building and to test the relationship between the Tibetan uplift and tectonic-climatic coupling and environmental im-pacts[1―4].However,there are still many debates in the process and mechanism of how the Tibetan Plateau uplifted to the present configuration.Among various approaches to solve these key questions,dating of the Cenozoic stratigraphy …     

Response of grain size of Quaternary gravels to climate and tectonics in the northern Tibetan Plateau

The widely distributed thick gravel deposits along the rim of the Tibetan Plateau have been long thought to be the product of rapid tectonic uplift of the plateau. However, this has been challenged by recent works that suggest these thick gravels may be the result of climate change. In this paper we carried out a detailed field measurement of gravel grain sizes from the Jiuquan and Gobi Gravel Beds in the top of the Laojunmiao section in the Jiuxi Basin in the northern margin of Qilian Mts. (northern Tibetan Plateau). The results suggest that the grain sizes of the Jiuquan and Gobi Gravel Beds over the last 0.8 Ma are characterized by nine coarse-fine cycles having strong 100-ka and 41-ka periodicities that correlate well with the loess-paleosol monsoon record and isotopic global climatic record from deep sea sediments as well as by a long trend of coarsening in gravel grain size. The coarse gravel layers were formed during the warm-humid interglaciations while the fine layers correspond to the cold-dry glaciations. Because the paleoclimate in NW China began to get dramatically drier after the mid-Pleistocene, we think the persistent coarsening of gravel grain size was most probably caused by the rapid uplift of the northern Tibetan Plateau, and that the orbital scale cyclic variations in gravel grain size were driven by orbital forcing factors that were superimposed on the tectonically-forced long-term coarsening trend in gravel size. These findings also shed new light on the interaction results of climate and tectonics in relation to the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Epistemic uncertainty in on-site earthquake early warning on the use of PGV–PD3 empirical models

From the literature, we found that PGV–PD3 regressions for on-site earthquake early warning (EEW) can be quite different depending on the presumption whether or not PGV–PD3 data from different regions should be “mixable” in regression analyses. As a result, this becomes a source of epistemic uncertainty in the selection of a PGV–PD3 empirical relationship for on-site EEW. This study is aimed at examining the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW decision-making, and demonstrating it with an example on the use of PGV–PD3 models developed with data from Taiwan, Japan, and Southern California. The analysis shows that using the “global” PGV–PD3 relationship for Southern California would accompany a more conservative EEW decision-making (i.e., early warning is activated more frequently) than using the local empirical model developed with the PGV–PD3 data from Southern California only. However, the influence of this epistemic uncertainty on EEW is not that obvious for the cases of Taiwan and Japan.     

Tectonic evolution of the Western Kunlun orogenic belt in northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:Evidence from zircon SHRIMP and LA-ICP-MS U-Pb geochronology

The Western Kunlun Range in northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is composed of the North Kunlun Terrane,the South Kunlun Terrane and the Karakorum-Tianshuihai Terrane. Here we report zircon SHRIMP and LA-ICP-MS U-Pb ages of some metamorphic and igneous rocks and field observations in order to pro-vide a better understanding of their Precambrian and Palaeozoic-early Mesozoic tectonic evolution. Based on these data we draw the following conclusions: (1) The paragneisses in the North Kunlun Terrane are likely of late Mesoproterozoic age rather than Palaeoproterozoic age as previously thought,representing tectonothermal episodes at 1.0―0.9 Ga and ～0.8 Ga. (2) The North Kunlun Terrane was an orogenic belt accreted to the southern margin of Tarim during late Mesoproterozoic to early Neopro-terozoic,the two episodes of metamorphisms correspond to the assemblage and breakup of Rodinia respectively. (3) The Bulunkuole Group in western South Kunlun Terrane,which was considered to be the Palaeoproterozoic basement of the South Kunlun Terrane by previous studies,is now subdivided into the late Neoproterzoic to early Palaeozoic paragneisses (khondalite) and the early Mesozoic metamorphic volcano-sedimentary series; the paragneisses were thrust onto the metamorphic vol-cano-sedimentary series from south to north,with two main teconothermal episodes (i.e.,Caledonian,460―400 Ma,and Hercynian-Indosinian,340―200 Ma),and have been documented by zircon U-Pb ages. (4) In the eastern part of the South Kunlun Terrane,a gneissic granodiorite pluton,which intruded the khondalite,was crystallized at ca. 505 Ma and metamorphosed at ca. 240 Ma. In combination with geochronology data of the paragneiss,we suggest that the South Kunlun Terrane was a Caledonian accretionary orogenic belt and overprinted by late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic arc magmatism.     

The long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc for the April 2016 through March 2021 period,its modification and application; the Kuril–Kamchatka seismicity before and after the May 24, 2013, M 8.3 deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

This paper discusses results from ongoing research on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the concepts of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We developed a forecast for the next 5 years (April 2016 through March 2021) for all segments of the earthquake-generating zone along the Kuril–Kamchatka arc. The 20 segments of the arc were analyzed to develop forecasts of the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, a normalized parameter of the rate of small earthquakes (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes that are expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. We discuss the seismic process in the Kuril–Kamchatka earthquake-generating zone before and after the deep-focus May 24, 2013 M 8.3 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk. The results corroborate the high seismic hazard in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii and the urgent need for continuing with and expanding the ongoing work of seismic retrofitting and seismic safety enhancement. We quote practical results from applications of the method during 30 years.     

Rapid magnetic susceptibility measurement as a tracer to assess the erosion–deposition process using tillage homogenization and simple proportional models: A case study in northern of Morocco

Soil erosion is a significant threat in the Rif region in northern Morocco. Hence, accurate cartography of the phenomenon, magnitude, and extent of erosion in the area needs a simple, rapid, and economical method such as magnetic susceptibility (MS). The current study aims to: (i) determine the factors influencing the variation of soil MS, (ii) exploit MS to estimate soil loss using two approaches in different homogenous units characterized by the same climatic conditions with different edaphic characteristics (land use, slope, and lithology), and (iii) highlight the potential for using MS as a cheap and rapid tracer of a long term erosion and deposition processes. Mass-specific magnetic susceptibility at low (χ_lf) and high (χ_hf) frequencies were measured for 182 soil samples collected in the study area. A tillage homogenization (T-H) model and a simple proportional model (SPM) were applied on an undisturbed soil profile to predict the eroded soil depths for given cores. The results confirm that χ_lf is influenced by land use, slope, and soil type. Pedogenesis is the main factor affecting soil MS enhancement, indicated by homogenous magnetic mineralogy with a dominance of super-paramagnetic (SP) and stable single domain (SSD) magnetic grains. The study results show that higher soil losses have occurred in almost all the soil samples when applying the T-H model compared to application of the SPM. The SPM underestimates erosion due to its ignorance of the MS of the plow layers after erosion. The current study implies the high efficacy of magnetic susceptibility as the quick, easily measurable, simple, and cost-effective approach that can be used as an alternative technique for evaluating soil redistribution.