Modelling ecosystem functions and properties at different time and spatial scales in shallow coastal lagoons: An application of the LOICZ biogeochemical model

The Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) biogeochemical model (LBM) was applied at different temporal and spatial scales in 17 Italian lagoons of the LaguNet network (http://www.dsa.unipr.it/lagunet). A series of alternative assumptions taking into account benthic vegetation and sedimentary fluxes were introduced and compared with the classical LBM approach at various time scales. The reliability of the LBM application to the seventeen Italian lagoons was tested by comparison to a pool of shallow coastal systems from the global LOICZ database with comparable depths and sizes. The nutrient loads of the Italian sites can be considered relatively low, particularly for dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP). Although the median values of estimated internal transformations (source-sink) of both dissolved inorganic phosphorous and nitrogen at the LaguNet sites were comparable with the selected LOICZ sites, the positive and negative extreme values were one order of magnitude lower. Overall, the LBM applications to the Italian sites gave good quality budgets for shallow systems subjected to relatively low nutrient inputs and with a wide range of primary producer communities, including seagrass, macroalgae and phytoplankton. Furthermore, stoichiometry of Carbon:Nitrogen:Phosphorous for the different primary producer groups allowed the integration of previous studies by identifying a series of relationships between nutrient loads and ecosystem functions.     

Issues and challenges in spatio-temporal application of an ecosystem services framework to UK seas

The concepts of ecosystem services and human welfare provide strong integrative frameworks that can be used to inform marine policy and management decisions that support sustainable development. A theoretical framework has been developed and applied to create a model for UK seas to measure changes in final ecosystem services, in terms of human welfare. The model that has been developed is explicitly spatial and temporal to facilitate its use in supporting marine planning decisions. The development and application of this framework to UK seas necessarily requires many assumptions to be made. The paper describes the development and population of the framework and discusses the practical limitations and challenges in seeking to develop and apply such models. Significant differences in long-term values of different services were identified under the different scenarios. All scenarios highlight the projected decline in oil and gas revenues which provide particular intense values at sites of extraction. These values are partially replaced by revenues from offshore renewables in some of the scenarios. Values associated with carbon sequestration, maritime transport, tourism and pollution assimilation are also very significant but more spatially diffuse. The study has demonstrated that it is possible to develop spatio-temporal models to evaluate changes in final ecosystem service benefits using existing data, although the approach necessarily requires many assumptions to be made.     

Marine ecosystem approaches to management: challenges and lessons in the United States

This study examined how the United States’ largest marine resource management agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has begun to change its management strategy away from traditional marine resource management approaches towards an Ecosystem Approach to Management (EAM). Surveys were conducted with 57 NOAA scientists and resource managers in nine NOAA programs in 8 different geographic regions across the United States in 2005. A qualitative analysis examined the attitudes and experiences of participants with respect to implementing EAM and identified four major challenges to enhancing cooperation and understanding of EAM. We conclude with recommendations for concrete initiatives that future efforts in EAM that any management agency can undertake to facilitate further ecosystem management opportunities.     

Top-down modeling and bottom-up dynamics: Linking a fisheries-based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current

In this paper we present results from dynamic simulations of the Northern California Current ecosystem, based on historical estimates of fishing mortality, relative fishing effort, and climate forcing. Climate can affect ecosystem productivity and dynamics both from the bottom-up (through short- and long-term variability in primary and secondary production) as well as from the top-down (through variability in the abundance and spatial distribution of key predators). We have explored how the simplistic application of climate forcing through both bottom-up and top-down mechanisms improves the fit of the model dynamics to observed population trends and reported catches for exploited components of the ecosystem. We find that using climate as either a bottom-up or a top-down forcing mechanism results in substantial improvements in model performance, such that much of the variability observed in single species models and dynamics can be replicated in a multi-species approach. Using multiple climate variables (both bottom-up and top-down) simultaneously did not provide significant improvement over a model with only one forcing. In general, results suggest that there do not appear to be strong trophic interactions among many of the longer-lived, slower-growing rockfish, roundfish and flatfish in this ecosystem, although strong interactions were observed in shrimp, salmon and small flatfish populations where high turnover and predation rates have been coupled with substantial changes in many predator populations over the last 40 years.     

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.     

Economic tradeoffs in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem: Herring and whale-watching

This research attempts to quantify some of the effects of localized depletion of herring by examining the search times of commercial whale-watching vessels. Whale-watching vessels are indirect users of herring; whales feed on herring and may disperse when prey availability is low. A dataset of daily whale-watching outcomes is combined with fishing effort and oceanographic data to test the hypothesis that intensive fishing effort increases the search time of whale-watching companies. Our results suggest that fishing may have a detrimental impact on search time; however, the magnitude of this effect is fairly small. We find policy that the recently enacted policy which prohibits fishing for herring in whale-watching areas would decrease search times by a small amount. We find some evidence of a localized aggregation effect; search times are the lowest when herring are spawning in the inshore areas. These results should be of interest to policymakers in determining future fishing regulations in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.     

A spatio-temporal ecosystem model to simulate fishing management plans: A case of study in the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)

The Gulf of Gabes located in southern Tunisia is one of the most productive ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. Despite its ecological importance, it is subject to high fishing pressure affecting the different components of the ecosystem. Given the multispecies, multigear nature of the fishery, there is a need to manage trade-offs between environmental and economic objectives. In this study, an Ecospace model was developed based on the previously constructed Ecopath model of the Gulf of Gabes and calibrated for the period 1995–2008 to investigate the response of the ecosystem to a set of alternative spatial management scenarios. These scenarios were derived from the current fishery regulation owing the important interest expressed by local fishery managers to assess new management measures. The results showed for each management scenario how bottom trawling and coastal fishing impact the different trophic groups and the complexity of interaction between these two fishing activities. Furthermore, spatially explicit simulations were performed to identify regions where the management measures are effective. Results suggested that for some trophic groups, these regions are well-defined which would be interesting to propose more accurate spatial measures. Finally, several indicators were calculated to evaluate the proposed management plans and provide managers with a straightforward set of decision rules to describe the potential trade-offs and fulfill both fisheries and conservation management objectives in the context of an ecosystem approach. The decision rules were based on observed trends to reduce uncertainty relative to the model complexity and provide consistent advice to decision-makers.     

Knowledge-based systems as decision support tools in an ecosystem approach to fisheries: Comparing a fuzzy-logic and a rule-based approach

In an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF), management must draw on information of widely different types, and information addressing various scales. Knowledge-based systems assist in the decision-making process by summarising this information in a logical, transparent and reproducible way. Both rule-based Boolean and fuzzy-logic models have been used successfully as knowledge-based decision support tools. This study compares two such systems relevant to fisheries management in an EAF developed for the southern Benguela. The first is a rule-based system for the prediction of anchovy recruitment and the second is a fuzzy-logic tool to monitor implementation of an EAF in the sardine fishery. We construct a fuzzy-logic counterpart to the rule-based model, and a rule-based counterpart to the fuzzy-logic model, compare their results, and include feedback from potential users of these two decision support tools in our evaluation of the two approaches. With respect to the model objectives, no method clearly outperformed the other. The advantages of numerically processing continuous variables, and interpreting the final output, as in fuzzy-logic models, can be weighed up against the advantages of using a few, qualitative, easy-to-understand categories as in rule-based models. The natural language used in rule-based implementations is easily understood by, and communicated among, users of these systems. Users unfamiliar with fuzzy-set theory must “trust” the logic of the model. Graphical visualization of intermediate and end results is an important advantage of any system. Applying the two approaches in parallel improved our understanding of the model as well as of the underlying problems. Even for complex problems, small knowledge-based systems such as the ones explored here are worth developing and using. Their strengths lie in (i) synthesis of the problem in a logical and transparent framework, (ii) helping scientists to deliberate how to apply their science to transdisciplinary issues that are not purely scientific, and (iii) representing vehicles for delivering state-of-the-art science to those who need to use it. Possible applications of this approach for ecosystems of the Humboldt Current are discussed.     

南海北部海洋生态模型的参数分析及遗传算法优化

海洋生态系统动力学模型是研究海洋生态环境的重要手段。随着模型的发展, 生态参数取值不确定性增加, 对模型结果的影响逐渐增大, 因此模型参数优化显得尤为重要。本研究在南海北部应用一维物理-生态耦合模型, 通过对模型生态参数进行敏感性分析, 获取关键生态参数, 利用遗传算法对参数进行优化。结果表明, 模型中的敏感参数主要集中于浮游植物生长和浮游动物生长、摄食和死亡以及碎屑沉降等过程。针对以上参数利用遗传算法优化, 发现仅加入表层卫星数据, 模型表层和垂向模拟误差分别降低27.80%和21.40%; 加入垂向观测数据, 表层和垂向模拟误差分别降低14.90%和32.70%。遗传算法应用于海洋生态模型的关键参数优化研究, 所获取的参数对模型有明显的改善效果, 提高了耦合模型对生态系统的模拟精度, 为参数优化在三维模型中的应用提供了依据。     

Exploring the applicability of biological and socioeconomic tools in developing EAFM plans for data absent areas: Spinner dolphin EAFM for Kalpitiya,Sri Lanka

The ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) methodology is currently considered the preferred option for long-term sustainability of fisheries and ecosystem services and is widely popularised. Manuals, guidelines and training have been given to many nations, but the actual existence and execution of an EAFM plan is rare. The applicability and relevance of biological and socioeconomic tools to follow EAFM planning guidelines in a data absent area were explored in Kalpitiya, northwest Sri Lanka, where there is a population of spinner dolphins that the local community are especially dependent on through tuna-dolphin association fishing and dolphin-watching tourism. This paper provides background to the design and collection of information leading to the formulation of an EAFM management plan. Scoping and the determination of a fishery management area were completed through stakeholder consultations using a combination of interviewer-administered questionnaires, interviews, meetings, dolphin distribution data and existing management plans. Threats and stakeholder prioritisation were compiled and the final agreed fisheries management area covers a total area of 2445 km² adjacent to the Kalpitiya peninsula. The completed EAFM plan contains 4 goals, 16 actions and 72 sub-actions agreed by stakeholders. It was concluded that both willingness of higher level stakeholders responsible for implementing regulations and working with grass-root level stakeholders are critical in developing a realistic and implementable EAFM plan. This work also highlights how data absence should not remain the bottleneck that hinders moving forward with EAFM approaches.     

Development of a robust marine ecosystem model to predict the role of iron in biogeochemical cycles: A comparison of results for iron-replete and iron-limited areas,and the SOIREE iron-enrichment experiment

A new mixed layer multi-nutrient ecosystem model, incorporating diatoms, non-diatoms and zooplankton, is described that models the role of iron in marine biogeochemical cycles. The internal cell biochemistry of the phytoplankton is modelled using the mechanistic model of Flynn [2001. A mechanistic model for describing dynamic multi-nutrient, light, temperature interactions in phytoplankton. Journal of Plankton Research 23, 977–997] in which the internal cell concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrogen, silica, and iron are all dynamic variables that respond to external nutrient concentrations and light levels. Iron stress in phytoplankton feeds back into chlorophyll synthesis and changes in photosynthetic unit (PSU) size, thereby reducing their growth rate. Because diatom silicon metabolism is inextricably linked with cell division, diatom population density (cell m⁻³) is modelled as well as C biomass. An optimisation technique was used to fit the model to three time-series datasets at Biotrans (47°N, 20°W) and Kerfix (50°40′S, 68°25′E) and the observations for the Southern Ocean Iron-Release Experiment (SOIREE) iron-enrichment experiment (61°S, 140°E). The model gives realistic simulations of the annual cycles of nutrients, phytoplankton, and primary production at Biotrans and Kerfix and can also accurately simulate an iron fertilisation experiment. Specifically, the model predicts the high values of diatom Si:N and Si:C ratios observed in areas where iron is a limiting factor on algal growth. In addition, the model results at Kerfix confirm previous suggestions that underwater light levels have a more limiting effect on phytoplankton growth than iron supply. The model is also used to calculate C budgets and C and Si export from the mixed layer. The implications of these results for developing biogeochemical models incorporating the role of iron are discussed.     

Performance of a northwestern Mediterranean bottom trawl fleet: How the integration of landings and VMS data can contribute to the implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management

The European Union has established a framework to achieve or maintain good environmental status in the marine environment by 2020. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the application of the ecosystem approach to the management of human activities, covering all sectors having an impact on the marine environment. However, fisheries in the Mediterranean are far from a systematic implementation of an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). Aiming to address this issue, this study explores the potential of the relationship between daily yield by vessel (landings and income by species) and vessel position (known via vessel monitoring system) as a tool for fleet management. This approach is possible due to the current dynamics of Mediterranean fleets, with vessels returning daily to the harbour where landings are registered as weight and income by vessel. Moreover, vessels of >15 m total length have been compulsory monitored by VMS since 2005. A bottom trawl fleet that operates in the northwestern Mediterranean was chosen to develop this approach. Different groups of trawlers were identified, which could be linked to the strategies displayed by the fishermen that were mainly driven by the target species dynamics. Accurate knowledge of the fishing targets driving the fleet dynamics and of the fishing strategies at the vessel level (i.e. fishing ground habitat where the fishing pressure is exerted and corresponding landings) are shown to be a feasible tool for fleet management.     

Organizing coordination in a public marine research and management advice organization: The case of the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research

Public organizations involved in marine management are increasingly confronted with coordination challenges in marine governance. This study examines why and how the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research (IMR) reorganized its formal coordination structures between the areas of fisheries management and marine environmental management. The findings indicate that organizing efficient and, at the same time, legitimate coordination structures between different areas of marine governance is a “wicked” organizational problem with no ultimate and single optimal solution. In contrast to the assumptions of classical organization and management theory, the study finds that the reorganization of formal coordination structures is not necessarily driven for reasons of efficiency and perceived coordination problems. Instead, public marine management organizations also change their organizational structures to live up to external expectations to adopt modern management concepts, such as the Ecosystem Approach to Management (EAM). However, the study indicates that the adoption of the EAM has stimulated coordination and integration efforts in the research and advisory activities of the IMR.     

Confined channel-levee complex development in an elongate depo-center: Deep-water Tertiary strata of the Austrian Molasse basin

A basin axial-channel belt was largely responsible for the observed distribution of coarse-grained gravity-flow deposits in the Tertiary Puchkirchen and basal Hall formations of the Molasse foreland basin in Upper Austria. Elements of this depositional system, mapped in three-dimensional (3D) seismic-reflection data, include channel-belt thalweg, mass-transport complexes, overbank wedge, overbank lobe, and tributary channel. The primary objective of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the sedimentary processes that were prevalent in the channel-belt complex through the analysis of well data, including drill cores and wireline logs, in conjunction with 3D seismic interpretations.     

Investigation and sensitivity analysis of a mechanistic phytoplankton model implemented in a new modular numerical tool (Eco3M) dedicated to biogeochemical modelling

A new class of phytoplankton models with a mechanistic basis has been presented in a companion paper (Baklouti, M., Diaz, F., Pinazo, C., Faure, V., Queguiner, B., 2006. Investigation of mechanistic formulations depicting phytoplankton dynamics for models of marine pelagic ecosystems. Progress in Oceanography). It is the default class of models implemented in our new numerical tool Eco3M, which is dedicated to Ecological, Mechanistic and Modular Modelling. A brief overview of its main features is given in Section 2 of the present paper. In the next sections, a particular phytoplankton model among the aforementioned class has been tested with special emphasis on the mechanistic photosynthesis component relating the photosynthetic rate to the proportion of open photosystems II. The present study encompasses several essential steps that are inherent to any modelling, including model reduction, model sensitivity analysis and comparison of model outputs with experiments. The global sensitivity analysis of the plankton model for one-at-a-time parameter perturbations revealed a restricted set of parameters having major influence on the model outputs. Sensitivity tests involving simultaneous parameter perturbations within the range actually encountered in the literature provided a confidence interval for the outputs. Chemostat experiments performed on nitrate-limited diatoms grown under low (LL) and high-light (HL) conditions have been used for comparison with model outputs. The good fit between measured data and model outputs using the same parameter values in both the LL and HL cases demonstrates the ability of our model to represent the main features of phytoplankton dynamics including photoacclimation. Finally, Eco3M is ultimately intended to include explicit bacterial and zooplankton compartments, as well as to be coupled with ocean circulation models, but the intrinsic behavior of the phytoplankton model has been investigated first, independently of physical forcing.