基于组合权重的汛期地质灾害预警预报模型

利用组合权重法将地质灾害易发区等级和降雨量等级进行有机的结合,建立了基于组合权重的汛期地质灾害预警预报模型。以吉林省为例检验其有效性。将研究区域剖分为5 702（5 km×5 km）个单元格,对每个单元格的地质灾害发生的可能性进行了等级预报。通过对已发生的地质灾害及降雨量的历史资料进行验证可知,该预报结果的精准率达到了93.25%,其预报结果是合理可行的。     

An integrated model simulating the initiation and motion of earthquake and rain induced rapid landslides and its application to the 2006 Leyte landslide

A gigantic rapid landslide claiming over 1,000 fatalities was triggered by rainfalls and a small nearby earthquake in the Leyte Island, Philippines in 2006. The disaster presented the necessity of a new modeling technology for disaster risk preparedness which simulates initiation and motion. This paper presents a new computer simulation integrating the initiation process triggered by rainfalls and/or earthquakes and the development process to a rapid motion due to strength reduction and the entrainment of deposits in the runout path. This simulation model LS-RAPID was developed from the geotechnical model for the motion of landslides (Sassa 1988) and its improved simulation model (Sassa et al. 2004b) and new knowledge obtained from a new dynamic loading ring shear apparatus (Sassa et al. 2004a). The examination of performance of each process in a simple imaginary slope addressed that the simulation model well simulated the process of progressive failure, and development to a rapid landslide. The initiation process was compared to conventional limit equilibrium stability analyses by changing pore pressure ratio. The simulation model started to move in a smaller pore pressure ratio than the limit equilibrium stability analyses because of progressive failure. However, when a larger shear deformation is set as the threshold for the start of strength reduction, the onset of landslide motion by the simulation agrees with the cases where the factor of safety estimated by the limit equilibrium stability analyses equals to a unity. The field investigation and the undrained dynamic loading ring shear tests on the 2006 Leyte landslide suggested that this landslide was triggered by the combined effect of pore water pressure due to rains and a very small earthquake. The application of this simulation model could well reproduce the initiation and the rapid long runout motion of the Leyte landslide.     

Modelling the rainfall-induced mobilization of a large slope movement in northern Calabria

Two recent phases of mobilization of a large, rainfall-induced debris slide are analysed in terms of relationships between rains and phases of displacement. The first activation at San Rocco (San Benedetto Ullano, Calabria) occurred on 28 January 2009, after extraordinary rains had stricken the region for a couple of months. Detailed geomorphologic field surveys, combined with measurements of superficial displacements at datum points, were performed to properly recognize the evolution of the phenomenon. In addition, a real-time control system of rains and superficial displacements measured at extensometers was implemented, to better analyse the evolution of the phenomenon. In early May 2009, the activity reduced to very slow displacements, persisting in the same condition for the following 8 months. On 1 February 2010, premonitory signs of a new phase of activation were noticed, again following 2 months of extraordinary rainfalls. After few days of further precipitations, the middle sector of the landslide activated since 11 February, disrupting the road network and threatening the major lifelines and some buildings. A hydrological analysis aimed at simulating the dates of activation and the main phases of acceleration of the phenomenon was carried out, by calibrating the empirical model FLaIR against the daily rainfalls and the history of known phases of mobilization since 1970. Calibration allowed to successfully simulate both the cited phases of activity of the San Rocco landslide, by predicting the beginning of the movements as well as the following paroxysmal stages, as testified by the measurements at datum points and extensometers. The set of parameters obtained through calibration reflects the influence of both prolonged antecedent rains, and of high-intensity rainfalls of shorter duration, which slightly preceded the major displacements. Once calibrated the model, a suitable threshold could be defined, by analysing the trend of the mobility function against the history of activations of the considered slope movement, and by excluding false alarms. Accordingly, a reliable tool for predicting the phases of activity of a large slope movement could therefore be obtained.     

The characteristics of the Mocoa compound disaster event,Colombia

A rainfall-induced compound disaster happened in Mocoa in the pre-dawn hours of 1 April 2017. More than 300 people were killed, and a large number of houses and roads were destroyed in the worst catastrophe in the history of Mocoa. To investigate this disaster, a detailed interpretation was carried out using high-resolution images. Analysis of disaster characteristics based on satellite image revealed that the disaster could be identified as a consequence of compound mountain hazards including landslides, debris flows, and mountain torrents. The mountain hazards converged in the mountain watershed, which amplified the disaster’s effects. Analysis considers that this disaster is the result of heavy rainfalls. Moreover, in-depth interpretation of rainfall data and satellite images spanning over 16 years reveals that the previous El Niño event (2014–2016) also played an important role, which caused reduced rainfall and vegetation coverage. The long period of drought brought by El Niño affected the growth of vegetation and reduced the ability of vegetation to cope with heavy rainfalls. The results reveal that both antecedent rainfalls and climate impact need to be taken into consideration for mountain hazard analysis.     

Evaluation of rainfall spatial correlation effect on rainfall-runoff modeling uncertainty,considering 2-copula

Lack of accuracy of rainfall-runoff simulation (RRS) remains critical for some applications. Among various sources of uncertainty, precipitation plays a particular role. Rainfall rates as the main input data of RRS are of the first factors controlling the accuracy. In addition to the depth, spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall impact the flood discharge. Most of the previous studies on RRS uncertainty have ignored rainfall spatial distribution, where in large catchments, it is necessary to be modeled explicitly. Karoon III is one most important basin of the Iran because of the Karoon III dam in the outlet. In the present work, effect of spatial correlation of rainfall on HEC-HMS (SMA) continuous RRS uncertainty is evaluated using 2variate copula (2copula). Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach was used to consider the rainfall spatial dependence. To reduce the computational expense, sampling efficiency and convergence for MCS, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used. Copula functions consider wide range of marginal probability distribution functions (PDFs), eliminating limits of regular join PDFs. For this aim, two scenarios were investigated. In the first scenario, sub-basin rainfall was considered independent, and in the second scenario, 2copula was adopted to model spatial correlation of rainfall. Dimensionless rainfall depths were calculated for each sub-basin, and the PDFs were determined. The generated random dimensionless rainfalls were reweighted and multiplied by watershed’s mean rainfall value. Stochastic Climate Library was used to generate continuous daily rainfalls. Sampling from dimensionless rainfalls using LHS algorithm, 100 runs of calibrated model-simulated 100 flows for each day following MCS, and 80 % certainty bound was calculated. Results showed that considering dependence decreased 18 % of the maximum uncertainty bound width, so the methodology could be recommended for decreasing predicted runoff error.     

Physical and numerical modelling of infiltration from drainage holes for perforated storm sewer

In cities, the existence of impervious structures, such as road pavements, parking lots, footpaths, sidewalks, and roofs, can limit the magnitude of rainfall infiltration greatly. Stormwater run-off in storm sewer often dominates, which can cause problems of urban flooding easily during heave rainfalls. In rain and sewage diversion, perforated storm sewer is proposed to enable the occurrence of stormwater infiltration into the ground, which can change the prolonged drought-like condition. Model-scale laboratory tests are conducted to assess the infiltration process of water through drainage holes around the sewer circumference. The experimental data are also used to calibrate a numerical model, after which numerical parametric analysis is carried out. It is found that the feature of drainage holes only influences the wetting front in the initial stage of infiltration. In the end, the egg-shaped contour of wetting front with greater influencing zone below the sewer is obtained. The cumulative infiltration with time can be described by an infiltration model, which is positively correlated with the diameter and the number of drainage holes. The optimal opening ratio is recommended as 0.25%, which can provide the most effective drainage capacity.

     

坡面松散砾石土侵蚀过程及其特征研究

砾石土因其含砾、粉细砂和粘性土,具有级配宽、不均匀系数大、透水性强等特点,在土石坝防渗体土料和工程防渗墙中得到广泛应用。目前的研究多针对砾石土在工程应用方面,对于坡面松散砾石土降雨淋滤作用导致土体细粒成分流失、土体组构改变以至影响土体力学性质变化以及坡面物质稳定性变化等系列研究并不多见。利用人工降雨装置,进行了人工降雨坡面松散砾石土降雨淋滤试验,开展了砾石土侵蚀过程及其特征初步试验研究。试验表明,降雨作用下砾石土斜坡表面土体形态变化具有明显的阶段性特征,随着坡长的增加,产流率和侵蚀模数成线性增加,径流量随降雨时间跳跃和波动性增加,径流泥沙含量随降雨时间的增加以近似幂函数曲线关系递减。     

北京山区基于历史资料的泥石流临界雨量研究

通过对北京山区历史泥石流降雨资料的分析,根据有雨量站和无雨量站的泥石流易发区的资料情况,分别建立了不同前期雨量的预报模型,并根据预报模型初步建立了不同前期雨量前提条件下的黄,橙,红三色预报模式。     

世界实测与调查最大点雨量及其外包线公式

介绍了世界范围内大量实测与调查的点雨量极值,据此求得了世界最大点雨量外包线的新公式R=491D0.452,并对世界最大点雨量的地区分布特点、暴雨成因以及点暴雨极值在可能最大降水估算中的运用作了简要的说明.     

The chaotic time series of Indian monsoon rainfall and its prediction

The time series of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for the period 1871–1989 has been analysed using the method of deterministic chaos. It is found that a strange attractor underlies the time series implying the existence of a prediction function. This function has been approximated by a second-degree polynomial, involving the rainfalls of the past seven years and the coefficients have been estimated by least squares fit. The interannual variations of actual and computed rainfalls have been presented for a comparative study.     

The formation and evolution of a coastal alluvial fan in eastern Taiwan caused by rainfall-induced landslides

The formation and evolution of a coastal fan in eastern Taiwan associated with a sequence of rainfall-induced landslides during the 2009–2013 period are explored in this study. The evolution of these landslides is mainly attributed to the head-cutting process initiated by Typhoon Parma in October 2009. During the attack of Typhoon Megi in October, 2010, a subaerial coastal fan with a surface slope of 8.9° was formed after the mobilization of the rainfall-induced landslides. The geomorphic features both in the steep gully and on the coastal fan were categorized as the sequence of granular debris flows and sheet floods. Severe fan toe erosion occurred thereafter due to the wind-wave forcing. Even if the variations of both the cumulative rainfalls and the drainage areas are one or two orders of magnitude among devastating fan-forming landslides worldwide, the mean annual precipitation and the basin ruggedness index (Melton ratio) are effective indicators to normalize the rainfall threshold and to characterize the fan surface slope, respectively. Severe catastrophic landslides generally occur when the normalized cumulative rainfalls with respect to mean annual precipitation are greater than 0.1. The fan slope generally increases with the increasing Melton ratio for the catchment. Uchiogi’s empirical model is applicable for predicting the rainfall-induced area ratio of newly generated landslides. In this case study, the relationship of the fan area to the total landslide area follows a linear regressive curve when the ratio of landslide area with respect to the drainage area exceeds 0.0056.     

成矿过程奇异性与矿产预测定量化的新理论与新方法

在分析地震、滑坡、洪水、暴雨、森林火灾等一系列非线性地球系统过程共同特征的基础上,笔者提出了成矿过程作为奇异性过程的命题。探讨了成矿过程奇异性、广义自相似性、自组织临界性等基本非线性特征的内在联系。从多重分形理论出发给出了:(1)度量成矿域空间结构不均匀性的局部奇异性分析模型;(2)度量成矿多样性与自相似性关系的系列广义自相似性度量模型;(3)首次给出了奇异性指标作为度量控矿要素与矿床分布相关关系的非线性模型,提出了从奇异性出发计算成矿后验概率的新的对数概率模型;(4)介绍了成矿奇异性的动力学模拟过程。详细介绍了非线性矿产资源预测理论和方法的基本内容和模型。     

Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges

Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches.     

贵州省地质灾害气象预警系统

从降水（特别是暴雨）是地质灾害的主要自然诱因这一基本事实出发，通过对地质灾害和对应气象资料的分析，探讨地质灾害的发生与气象条件之间的关系，提出了一套基于降雨量指标的地质灾害气象预警方法。作者综合考虑前期累积雨量、降雨类型和实时雨量等关键指标，建立了一定地质环境条件下灾害的气象预警模型。在此基础上，应用先进的软件技术开发研制了贵州省地质灾害气象预警系统，并于2003午汛期投入业务试运行，开展地质灾害气象预警眼务。该系统实时运行在气象业务网络环境中，高效稳定、功能全面．自动进行全省地质灾害气象条件的动态监测和模型计算，利用精细化乡镇雨量观测网和地质灾害隐患点资料，可实现对全省各地到乡镇一级的地质灾害气象条件预警，每日制作发布全省地质灾害气象条件预警报告，提供生动直观的预警图、表及相应的地质灾害隐患点信息：该系统经过在实践应用中不断改进完善，形成了以应用全省精细化乡镇雨量观测资料和针对地质灾害隐患分布的特色。该系统投入业务运行以来建立了汛期业务值班制度，向省委首政府、国土民政等有关部门进行有效的地质灾害气象预警服务，对系统运行情况进行地质灾害实例检验取得了较好的预警效果，服务工作取得了明显的社会效益。由于该系统的开发主要是从气象条件的角度出发，虽考虑了地质灾害隐患的分布情况，但对导致地质灾害发生的地喷环境条件的分析应用还显不够。最后，作者也指出了需要进一步改进的方向。     

神头泉流量变化规律研究--灰色系统理论的具体应用

在分析神头泉流量衰减特征的前提下，利用灰色系统理论建立了描述神头泉流量变化规律的数学模型。以1985年为界，神头泉的流量变化过程可分为两个阶段，GM（1，1）模型与灰色预测校正模型则分别用于对这两个阶段的流量变化特征进行刻画。神头泉2000－2004年的流量预测值表明，在神头泉域保证90年代中期的高降水量和朔州市各地下水用户对泉域内的地下水不进行超采的基础上，神头泉的流量在未来的一段时间内会维持1993年以来的增长趋势。     

干旱地区路堑边坡失稳的机理及稳定性分析方法

水对边坡的失稳有很大的影响,在内蒙古西部干旱地区,往往由于集中降雨导致大量的路堑边坡失稳破坏,本文分析了降雨对边坡的不利影响,提出了考虑降雨作用的边坡稳定分析方法,并通过工程实例对该地区的边坡稳定性进行数值分析计算,其方法对干旱地区的路堑边坡设计及稳定性评价具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Drought in the Sahel

The Sahel region of West Africa is well known as a region of environmental degradation. The reported incidence of desertification has been challenged but persistent and widespread drought is still widely accepted. Drought, defined solely as a function of rainfall, is believed to have commenced in the early 1970s and continued through to the present. It is usually defined as a meteorological phenomenon and standardised rainfall anomalies are employed to indicate the severity of negative departures from the ‘norm’. There are several difficulties with this approach. The period of standardising rainfall has changed from 1931–1960 to 1961–1990 but the impacts on drought occurrence have not been fully determined. The spatial aggregation of rainfall anomalies may mask important local variation and the purely statistical approach to defining drought takes little account of human impact. The first two issues, averaging period and spatial aggregation, are investigated through an analysis of rainfalls in Continental Sahel (Bukina Faso, Mali and Niger). A new classification of drought classes is suggested. Despite the clear evidence of negative rainfall anomalies for rainfalls aggregated across the Sahel region, it is found that the averaging period has a significant impact on our perceptions of the occurrence of what can be considered to be meteorological drought according to the definition employed and that there is significant spatial variation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The interannual variability of mid-latitude meridional circulation and its teleconnection with Indian monsoon activity

The statistical relationship between the summer monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, onset dates of monsoon and the index of mid latitude, (35° to 70°N) meridional circulation at 500 hPa level over different sectors and hemisphere based on 19 years (1971–1989) data, have been examined. The results indicate that (i) the summer monsoon rainfalls over all India, northwest India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous January over sector 45°W to 90°E. (ii) The summer monsoon rainfalls over all India and peninsular India show a significant inverse relationship with the strength of meridional index during previous December over sector 90°E to 160°E, (iii) The summer monsoon rainfall over northwest India shows a significant direct relationship with the meridional index during previous May over sector 160°E to 45°W. Significant negative relationships are also observed between the meridional circulation indices of previous October (sector 3 and 4), previous December (sectors 1, 3 and 4), previous winter season (sector 3 and 4) and the onset dates of summer monsoon over India. The meridional circulation index thus can have some possible use for long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India, as well as the onset dates of monsoon.     

Use of flood chronology for detailed environmental analysis: a case study of Lake Kizaki in the northern Japanese Alps,central Japan

This paper presents a study of the usefulness of flood layers as a time marker in sediments and a report of a case study of Lake Kizaki in central Japan. A flood layer can be identified as a layer having a higher density, coarser grain size, lower TN content, and higher C/N ratio than those of the upper and lower horizons. It can also be characterized by a hyperpycnal sequence composed of a basal coarsening-upward unit and a top fining-upward unit. When flood layers can be correlated with heavy rains in meteorological records, detailed age markers are well established in the sediment. Five flood layers were identified in the surface sediment of Lake Kizaki, and they could be attributed to the historical heavy rainfalls that took place on July 12, 1995; September 28, 1983; August 25, 1974; September 26, 1959; and September 1, 1949 under the constraint of an age model. A precise age model is essential to clarify the environmental changes such as the pollutant history in detail.     

金沙江深切河谷百胜滑坡演化过程及成因机制

受青藏高原地质构造作用和末次冰期暖湿气候的影响,金沙江深切成谷,高山峡谷区发育大量的大型滑坡,在降雨和河（库）水升降等作用下复活。为了分析降雨型深切河谷的斜坡稳定性机制,以百胜滑坡为例,采用地面调查和地质力学分析方法,对滑坡的演化过程、形成机制、地质力学模型进行研究。研究表明,滑坡形成及复活演化过程可分为原始斜坡、岩体卸荷劣化、挤压塑性流变、降雨诱发失稳、滑体解体压密蠕滑、局部复活等6个阶段。在深切河谷的形成过程中,斜坡岩体在卸荷拉裂、后期水弱化和泥化等多种耦合作用下由稳态逐步演化至失稳。计算结果表明,天然工况下稳定性系数为1.12,处于基本稳定状态;暴雨及库水位涨落工况下稳定性系数为0.98,失稳破坏。