地方气候、小气候与应用气候

P467 2003020966太湖流域公元,60年以来的气候干湿变化研究=Dry/wetelimate ehanges sinee 960 A.D.in Taihu drainage basinofChina/王张华,陈中原…//地理科学一2002,22(5)一546一551 利用史料和文献建立了太湖流域公元960一1992年的 7逐年干湿等级序列,对此序列进行了周期分析和突变分析.分析表明,本区近千年来的历史干湿变化是一种复合振动,其主周期是准100年,另外还有多个周期,这些周期与天体活动密切相关.统计还发现1247一1263年附近由干变湿和1618一1635年附近由湿变干的两次非局地性气候突变事件.其中,14、巧世纪是太湖流域近千…     

近50年来中国干湿气候界线的10年际波动

利用中国北方1951～1999年降水量和年蒸发量资料，计算了干燥度指数（D）。并据此将中国划分为干旱区（D（0.20）），半干旱区（0.20-0.50）和湿润区（D(0.50）），近50a中国干湿气候波动显著，区域差异大；50a波动幅度东北区为20～400km，华北区为40～400km，西北东部为30～350km，西南区为40～370km，以80年代为界，在20世纪80年代以前（包括80年代），西南区气候具有显著变湿趋势；西北东部稍变湿；华北区和东北区具有变干趋势，且华北区变干程度比东北区严重。进入90年代。西南区和西北东部气候有变干迹象。华北区西部气候的干旱程度有所增加，华北区东部有所减弱，东北区气候进一步变湿，半干旱区是湿润区与干旱区之间的过渡区，是中国季风的边缘地带，也是环境变化的敏感区，20世纪60～70年代中国（北方）干湿气候存在一次突变，由较湿润变为干旱。50年来干湿气候界线呈现出整体移动和东西、南北相异波动的特征，当干湿气候界线同时向西或向北移动时，中国北方气候就变得相对湿润；当同时向东或向南移动时，北方气候就变得相对干旱；当干湿气候界线东西、南北相异移动时，北方气候的干旱程度就介于二者之间。     

过去千年中国不同区域干湿的多尺度变化特征评估

依据近年发表的新成果,对中国过去千年干湿的年至百年尺度变化特征进行了总结梳理与对比分析,综合评估了20世纪干湿变幅的历史地位。主要结论是：① 根据历史文献记载重建的东中部各区干湿序列在1400年以后均达高信度,但其前因存在记录缺失,仅有半数时段的重建结果达高信度。在东北及内蒙古东部,根据不同地点湖沼沉积物记录揭示的区域干湿百年尺度变化特征在多数时段不一致。在西部的黄土高原、河西走廊、新疆中北部、青藏高原东北部和东南部等地区,利用不同地点树轮资料重建的干湿序列显示的干湿变化特征在区内一致性高。② 过去千年中国各地干湿变化均存在显著的年际、年代际和百年尺度周期。其中准2.5 a、60~80 a和110~120 a等尺度的周期为所有地区共有;3.5~5.0 a、20~35 a等尺度周期则主要发生在东北、东中部地区、黄土高原和青藏高原;而准45 a周期则只发生在东北和东中部地区（均超过90%信度水平）;各区域间的干湿变化位相并不同步。③ 尽管已发现青藏高原东北部20世纪很可能是过去3000 a最湿的世纪之一,但其他大多数区域的重建结果显示：20世纪的干湿变幅在年代际尺度上均未超出其前各个时段的变率范围。     

基于历史文献的1470-2008年中国西北地区气候干湿序列分区重建

基于历史文献中的旱涝灾害记录,采用5级制划分的旱涝灾害等级,使用系统聚类法将中国西北地区19个站点划分为7个分区,利用湿润指数公式重建了西北地区7个分区1470-2008年的年分辨率干湿变化序列,比较分析了各分区干湿气候变化的阶段特征、周期性及跃变现象。结果表明：重建序列信度较高,可用作气候干湿变化研究。西北地区7个分区1470-2008年干湿变化存在着11 a、25~35 a和80~100 a的3类周期变化。其中,11 a和25~35 a的两个周期变化在整个分析时间段内表现得较为稳定;80~100 a的周期变化则表现的较不稳定。世纪尺度和气候代尺度的跃变信号各区皆有出现,位于研究区两边的陕西和玉树地区出现最少,宁夏和格尔木地区次之;位置居中的兰州、张掖、西宁等地区跃变信号出现最多,是气候干湿变化的敏感地带。检测出的干湿跃变信号主要集中在17世纪前后,近百年气候干湿变化则相对稳定。     

湖北省近500年区域干湿序列重建及其比较分析

在历史旱涝记载资料可靠性检验的基础上,重建了湖北省3个区域近500年来的干湿气候变化序列,并比较分析了各区域干湿气候变化的趋势特征、准周期性及跃变现象。结果表明:在3个区域中,鄂东区1570~1770、1890~1950年两个时段偏湿,1470~1520、1790~1830年则偏干;鄂北区偏湿时期主要在1470~1530、1710~1750、1850~1910年三个时段,1470~1530、1770~1830年则偏干;鄂西南区有1550~1610、1650~1710、1830~1890、1930~1990年4个主要偏湿时期,而无明显的偏干时段。运用功率谱和小波分析对3个干湿序列研究后发现,3个区域干湿变化具有多个气象周期,区域间周期类型差异显著,但50~70年左右的周期在3个区域上均表现突出;采用滑动t检验方法辨识干湿气候跃变现象,在"世纪尺度"和 30年尺度上检测到各区域干湿变化存在多个跃变事件,且同一跃变事件对不同区域向干(或向湿)影响的趋势相同。     

清代江苏省干湿时空特征分析

通过对清代江苏省干湿文献资料的整理,建立干湿指数序列,结合频次分析、滑动平均、滑动t检验、小波分析和聚类分析等方法,对干湿时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明:1850年前涝灾较严重,之后涝灾相对减少;集中发生旱灾的阶段为1701-1721年、1768-1786年和1856-1864年;在10a尺度上检测出干湿变化存在5个跃变事件;干湿序列存在明显的8~11a、18a、30a、40a和100a左右周期;32.5°N以北为涝灾多发区,以南为旱灾多发区,且冷期时旱灾区域较小,暖期时旱灾区域较大。     

510年来中国东中部地区气候干湿变化研究

选择上海、武汉、天津和西安为典型区，以1470-1979年逐年干湿等级序列为基本数据源，应用墨西哥帽小波变换方法，对中国东中部地区近510a来不同时间尺度下的气候干湿变化与气候突变特征进行分析，并探讨气候干湿变化的动因。结果显示：19世纪以前气候干湿变化表现出较明显的东西差异；小冰期事件、18世纪气候温和期等非局地性事件在较大区域都有反应，但各地的具体响应程度、方式和时间均有差异；在20世纪气候变暖的大背景下，各地气候均向偏干旱方向演变。百年以上尺度气候干湿变化的原因主要是太阳辐射及其引起的大气环流变化，百年以下尺度的变化则与季风系统短尺度波动、区内各个大气环流系统的相互作用、局地下垫面差异和人类活动等复杂因素的影响有关。     

近40年来塔里木河流域旱涝的气候变化

以Mann-Kendall检验、z指数变换、最大熵谱和气候趋势系数方法分析塔里木河流域降水突变、旱涝等级、旱涝周期与趋势的时空变化。结果表明:近40年来,流域各段的降水量都有增加的趋势,且存在突变,从源流区至下游突变时间依次提前;20世纪60年代流域干旱多,旱情较重;70~80年代中期属于转换期,出现旱情和涝情较重;80年代后期以后干旱明显减少,雨涝居多,涝情重;90年代中期以来,下游趋势与其余区域不同;准3年周期是流域各段最重要的变化周期。近40年来,上游变湿显著,源流区和中游不显著,下游有微弱变湿趋势;NAO对中上游旱涝影响显著,对全流域影响较大。     

辽宁西部地区的气候变化及干湿状况年代际变化特征

辽宁西部(简称辽西)是气候及生态环境脆弱区,因其特殊性使之成为相关科研人员关注的焦点,在全球气候变暖背景下增温显著的辽西地区气候及地表干湿气候界线如何变化是本文研究的问题。应用1961—2004年辽宁省内52个气象站的温度、降水、湿度、风、日照等气候资料,分析了辽西近50 a来的气候变化特点,采用改进的Penman模型计算潜在蒸发量,讨论了其时空代表性及分布特征;进一步计算了干燥度指数,并在10 a代际尺度上详细分析了辽西干湿气候变化特征。研究表明:辽西地区近44 a的总体气候变化趋势是气温升高、降水减少。20世纪60年代以来该区域干湿气候界线波动显著,呈现出整体移动、南北异相波动的特征。干湿气候年代际变化特征为60年代最湿润;70年代北部明显变干,南部不明显;80年代干湿气候存在一次突变,半干旱与半湿润界线明显东移,为最干期;90年代又跳跃性西移,明显变湿,尤其在北部表现更为显著,接近60年代。辽西的气候干湿年代际变化与西太平洋副热带高压和东南季风波动有较好的对应关系。     

近0．5ka广东省干湿演变探讨

采用相关系数、波谱分析等方法对近0.5 ka以来广东省的干湿变化及近期演变趋势进行分析。研究表明,厄尔尼诺事件与粤西、粤北地区的旱灾具有显著正相关,一定程度上加剧了两地的旱涝分布格局;湿润指数序列与格陵兰冰芯δ18O记录、中国东部冬温序列存在较好的对应关系,呈现出典型的季风区水热配置模式;周期分析揭示了干湿演变序列中一系列与太阳活动相关的特征周期,表明其驱动机制可能与包括天文因素在内的多种影响因素有关。湿润指数的多尺度分析表明,21世纪中叶以前,广东省将处于偏旱状态,2040(±5)年后将会出现较大强度的涝情,在未来几十年甚至百年内,广东省的干湿变化幅度有增大的趋势。     

Spatio-temporal changes in heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of 55 U.S. cities

With observed increases in global temperatures indicating changes to anomalous temperature events (ATE), few studies have considered the changes associated with both heat and cold together. This study evaluates the changes in heat waves and cold spells for 55 U.S. metropolitan areas (1948–2012). Using surface observations, thresholds of mean apparent temperature were used to define heat, extreme heat, cold, and extreme cold events. Days that exceeded the 95th temperature percentile were considered heat days. Similar values were used to define extreme heat (97.5th), cold (5th), and extreme cold (2.5th). Thresholds were calculated independently for each of the locations, incorporating spatial variability into the ATE definition. Changes in duration, seasonal timing, and frequency, all of which have been shown to be important characteristics in regard to heat and cold events, were evaluated. Significant changes in some characteristics were found. Across many locations, heat events have become more frequent, longer lasting, and earlier occurring, while cold spells have experienced an opposite trend. Since heat and cold events impact a range of ecological and bioclimatological processes, understanding the variability and changes associated with ATE remains an important aspect to consider as society prepares for future events.     

Establishment of tree-ring chronology and climatic response of Tibetan juniper (S. tibetica) in south Tibet, western China

A tree-ring width chronology of 442 years(1567-2008) was developed from Tibetan junipers(S.tibetica) derived from south Tibet in western China.Three versions of chronology were produced according to standard dendrochronological techniques.The correlation and response analysis displays a high correlation between the standard tree ring-width chronology and observed annual mean precipitation series during the period 1961-2008.Based on a linear regression model,an annual(prior August to current July) precipitation for the past 229 years was reconstructed.This is the first well-calibrated precipitation reconstruction for the Nanggarze region,south Tibet.The results show that relatively wet years with above-average precipitation occurred in 1780-1807,1854-1866,1886-1898,1904-1949,1967-1981 and 2000-2008,whereas relatively dry years with below-average precipitation prevailed during 1808-1853,1867-1885,1899-1903,1950-1966 and 1982-1999.Common dry/wet periods during 1890s,1910s,1940s-1960s and 1980s were also identified from other moisture reconstructions of nearby regions,indicating a synchronous climatic variation in south Tibet.Abrupt change beginning in 1888 was detected,revealing a transition from wet to dry conditions in south Tibet.Power spectrum analysis reveals significant cycles of 28-year,5.5-5.6-year and 3.3-year during the past 200 years.     

全球气候治理的伦理学讨论

气候变化及其应对在短短20年期间逐渐成为全球重要议题,以何种共赢、共识的方式行动起来,这不仅仅是技术进步问题,更是对人类集体认知的挑战。因此,需要从伦理学的角度尤其是基于气候变化的长期性和不确定性认识考虑全球气候治理问题。首先经济手段是全球行动和气候决策的最有效方法,但是它仍然存在各种争议,经济目标并非进行决策的唯一选项,除了经济上的效率原则,人类生活中还需要其他原则。其次,在应对决策上,不论是减缓还是适应,不论是征税还是补贴或是不同的贴现率决策,都需要更公平公正的路径来实现共赢,而这又必然涉及代际公平的讨论,进而又必然导致伦理准则的讨论。再次在气候变化决策模拟过程中,任何一个参数的设置和选择都涉及到价值判断,从而又让争论回到伦理原则。另外,不同国家和政府基于不同的国情和目的采取各种各样的碳税政策,要统一或协调可以用于全球所有国家和地区的标准就不仅仅是经济学问题,而是公平问题。因此基于全球气候治理的复杂性,文章提出基于更全面科学认知基础上的政策模拟才是人类进行气候治理的最佳方法。     

Managing climate change scenarios for societal impact studies

Dealing with the potential consequences of climate change on society requires scenarios that accurately project future climate. Uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions, climate sensitivity to radiative forcing, and limits to simulating a complex system constrain this objective. This paper reviews literature outlining the inherent challenges of creating future climate scenarios from general circulation models; it examines methods used to improve their interpretation and use; and it explores approaches taken to recognize and address uncertainty when investigating interactions between climate and society.     

气候模式同站点插值外推气象数据的比较

在气象站稀疏的中亚荒漠地区采用基于大气物理机制的区域气候模式,可获得高分辨率格点气象资料进行气候变化研究.针对中亚地区1958-2001年的气候变化,采用RegCM区域气候模式对ERA40和NCEP/NCAR两套气象再分析数据进行动力降尺度至40 km,并将结果同三套基于气象站点插值外推的格点数据(CRU、WM和APHRO)进行比较.所有数据一致表明,1960年代以来新疆地区的气温显著增加,南疆地区降水增加、天山山区降水减少.除APHRO外,数据都表明北疆地区降水呈增加趋势.RegCM模拟的气温和降水数据与站点外推数据空间分布格局基本一致;但RegCM数据年平均气温低于站点外推数据,RegCM数据在新疆山区的年降水量是站点外推数据年降水量的1.3倍.由于研究区内73％的气象站点分布在中山带以下的干热气候区,站点外推数据可能低估山区降水并高估该区域气温.与站点插值外推的格点数据相比,区域气候模式具有能细致描述区域内中小尺度的地形/下垫面特征、更精确反映气象要素空间变异格局的能力.但因为缺乏足够的地面观测以及高精度遥感反演气象数据,当前尚无法全面评估区域气候模式在中亚地区尤其是山区的模拟精度.     

Adaptation of U.S. Water Management to Climate and Environmental Change

This study addresses the current status of U.S. water resource management adaptation at the river basin scale. Four large basins, the Colorado, Platte, and Delaware rivers, as well as the Everglades Basin were examined to gain a diverse national perspective. The research program utilized qualitative methods, including observation, interviews, and questionnaires, to survey diverse basin management participants. Fifty-four participants in the case basins were interviewed on their perceptions and actions concerning the effects of climate variability and change. The research objective was to compare the cases in an adaptation assessment. Water decision makers in the United States make basin resource decisions based on a local physical and sociocultural environment. Therefore, although climate change is a global hazard, the characteristic local responses are unique for each of the study basins. The most employed adaptation method currently cited is a paradigm shift from command and control of basin resources to adaptable, flexible, no-regrets strategies, effective as responses to a wide array of potential effects from global environmental change.     

Occurrence and environmental significance of long-chain alkenones in Tibetan Zabuye Salt Lake, S.W. China

Long-chain alkenones, a group of sensitive organic molecular indicators of water temperature, have been rather extensively studied in marine environments. However they have never been systematically examined in lacustrine environments, despite reports of their occurrence in lake sediments. Here, we report on a recent study of long-chain alkenones in a sedimentary core from a high altitude (≈5400 m) salt lake, Zabuye Salt Lake (ZSL), Tibet. This is a critical location for global climate studies, especially of the atmospheric circulation of the North Hemisphere. C₃₇−C₃₉ methyl and/or ethyl alkenones, usually dominated by components with tetra- and tri-double bounds, are commonly the major components of the polar fraction of the extracted organic matter from most sections. Down-core (vertical) variation of alkenone indices, the measure of molecular unsaturation, is compared primarily with other environmental signals, including lithology, elemental and mineral compositions, and stable carbon isotopes of hydrocarbon biomarkers of this core. Down-core profiles of alkenone climatic indices (U ₃₇ ^k and U ₃₈ ^k ) suggest ZSL had two warm periods, one during ≈20–30 ka (≈Jabula Interglacial Optimum) and another at 8–5 ka (Middle Holocene Optimum), and a severe cold period from ≈18–11 ka (Last Glacial Maximum). The proposed warmer intervals are generally characterized by higher contents of carbonate, organic carbon, alkenones and heavier δ¹³C values ofn-alkanes.     

Climate change in Mt. Qomolangma region since 1971

Using monthly average, maximum, minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation data from 5 weather stations in Mt. Qomolangma region in China from 1971 to 2004, climatic linear trend, moving average, low-pass filter and accumulated variance analysis methods, the spatial and temporal patterns of the climatic change in this region were analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) There is obvious ascending tendency for the interannual change of air temperature in Mt. Qomolangma region and the ascending tendency of Tingri, the highest station, is the most significant. The rate of increasing air temperature is 0.234 oC/decade in Mt. Qomolangma region, 0.302 oC/decade in Tingri. The air temperature increases more strongly in non-growing season. (2) Compared with China and the global average, the warming of Mt. Qomolangma region occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase in Mt. Qomolangma region exceed those for China and the global average in the same period. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate change. (3) The southern and northern parts of Mt. Qomolangma region are quite different in precipitation changes. Stations in the northern part show increasing trends but are not statistically significant. Nyalam in the southern part shows a decreasing trend and the sudden decreasing of precipitation occurred in the early 1990s. (4) Compared with the previous studies, we find that the warming of Mt. Qomolangma high-elevation region is most significant in China in the same period. The highest automatic meteorological comprehensive observation station in the world set up at the base camp of Mt. Qomolangma with a height of 5032 m a.s.l will play an important role in monitoring the global climate change.     

1971年以来珠穆朗玛峰地区气候变化

Global climate change has profound influence on natural ecosystem and socioeconomic system and is a focus which governments, scientific societies as well as common people of various countries have paid much attention to. Observations indicate that there i…     

Perceptions of climate change in China: The research and policy connection

Global climate change has evolved from a scientific problem into an economic and political problem oI worlOwloe rater- est. National perspectives play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Mutual understanding of perspectives is nec- essary to result in rational policies and a consensus among stakeholders with divergent interests. Conceptual frameworks for understanding the problem of climate change in China, the largest developing country and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, are of great significance to national and international efforts to address the problems of climate change. Chinese perceptions of climate change as a sustainable development problem have recently been in tension with an emerging Western perspective that frames climate change as a security issue. This paper explores Chinese perceptions of climate change as expressed in recent governmental policy statements, public opinion surveys, and academic scholarship with a focus on publications in Chinese-language journals, often unfamiliar in the West. It looks at the relationship between Chinese research and policy and finds that the Chinese policy frame of climate change as a sustainable development problem draws from the body of domestic research and is reflective of the perspectives and multidisciplinary approach of Chinese researchers in areas of climate change.