华北平原降水的长期趋势分析(英文)

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important food grain producing area in China and has suffered from serious water shortages. To capture variation water availability, it is necessary to have an analysis of changing trends in precipitation. This study, based on daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in NCP records passed the homogeneity test, analyzed the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the MannKendall (M-K) test and Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that monthly precipitation in winter had a significant increasing trend in most parts, while monthly precipitation in July to September showed a decreasing trend in some parts of NCP. No significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of NCP.A significant decreasing trend was detected for the maximum no-rain duration and annual rain days in the major part of NCP. It was concluded that the changing trend of precipitation in NCP had an apparent seasonal and regional pattern, i.e., precipitation showed an obvious increasing trend in winter, but a decreasing trend in the rainy season (July to September), and the changing trend was more apparent in the northern part than in the southern and middle parts. This implies that with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in NCP tends to decline with an increasing of precipitation in winter season, and a decreasing in rainy season, particularly in the sub-humid northern part.     

石林巴江流域近40年气温和降水变化的初步研究

利用数理统计方法分析了石林巴江流域中部近40年（1964-2001年）的气温和降雨量的年、季节和月变化。本区气温的增温速率是0．2℃／10a，与昆明市区增温率相近，低于同期全国增温速率；雨季（夏季）增温幅度大于旱季（冬季）。在过去40年中，年降雨量增加总量约为40mm，雨季降雨量略有降低，而旱季降雨量略有增强，全年第一次降雨强度和全年日最大降雨量也略有增加，但每年连续不降雨天数增加约1．9天。降雨量变化的波动性比气温变化的波动性强。气温、降雨量在1960s、1970s、1980s和1990s表现出不同的变化趋势。     

1960~2010年西北干旱区极端降水特征研究

基于中国西北干旱区1960~2010 年70个台站逐日降水资料,采用欧盟组织(STARDEX)定义的降水极值指数,分析结果表明: ① 研究区近51 a来强降水发生频次、湿期平均长度表现出增多和增长趋势,干日数和干期平均长度表现出减少和变短趋势; ② 单次强水的强度在增加,表现为：湿日数减少,而降水的总量却显著增加。③ 湿日数减少主要是0~6 mm强度的降水日数减少,12~24 mm强度的降水日数显著增加,后者对降水总量的增加贡献较大。④ 绝大部分站点强降水（>12 mm）的雨日（量）都以上升趋势为主,表现为下降趋势的站点极少。     

印度河流域气温、降水、蒸发及干旱变化特征

基于印度河流域及周围54个地面气象站气温、降水资料,结合CRU气温和GPCC降水全球格点化陆面再分析资料,通过插值构建了一套0.5°×0.5°分辨率1980—2016年逐月格点数据集。采用Thornthwaite方法计算了潜在蒸散发,基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）,探讨了印度河流域气候变化及干旱演变特征。结果表明：（1）1980—2016年,印度河流域年平均气温以0.30℃·（10 a）^-1的速率呈显著上升趋势,21世纪初增温幅度最大;干季（11月~次年4月）升温速率较快,达0.36℃·（10 a）^-1,湿季（5~10月）增速0.25℃·（10 a）^-1。年降水量呈现少雨—多雨—少雨—多雨年代际振荡。伴随着持续升温,年和各季的潜在蒸发量增加显著。干季干旱频率较多,但湿季干旱强度高,各季干旱频率与降水呈现较一致的年代际波动;干旱的影响面积在干季呈现微弱地增加趋势,湿季却略有减少趋势。（2）空间上,除西北局部,流域其他区域的年和季平均气温、潜在蒸发量增加趋势显著,均达到95%置信水平。其中南部平原和东北山区升温幅度较高,南部平原区潜在蒸发量增加也较大。新德里到喀布尔的东南至西北带状区域的年和湿季降水量,以及喀布尔周围地区的干季降水量呈显著增加趋势。东南平原区和东北局部山区的干季,以及东北和西南局部山区的湿季呈现显著的干旱化态势,需要加强防灾减灾的意识并采取相应措施,以规避干旱增多带来的不利影响。     

我国大陆降水年变的谐波分析

本文对我国大陆200个站的平均月降水量序列进行谐波分析.结果表明:头三个谐波已足以描写我国大陆降水的季节变化特征,其中一波尤占优势.不同降水年变类型区域及其间的过渡在一波图上表现很清楚.     

近60年昆明市气候变化特征分析

利用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验(MTT法)和小波分析等数理统计分析方法,分析昆明市近60 a气候变化趋势和气候突变特征。结果显示:近60 a昆明市气候变化呈气温升高、降水量略微减少的暖干化趋势;气温上升率0.24℃/10 a,降水量下降率3.89 mm/10 a;干季增温强于雨季,而雨季降雨量下降趋势明显;2001~2010年是近60 a来昆明气温最高、降水量最少的10 a;昆明市气温变化包含5~10、10~15 a左右周期,其降水量变化有10~15 a左右的周期变化特征。     

Sub-daily rainfall events in an arid environment with marked climate variability: Variation among wet and dry years at Fowlers Gap,New South Wales,Australia

The nature of rainfall events is explored through six years of below average rainfall, associated with negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and three years of above average rainfall, associated with positive SOI (and strong La Niña conditions), at arid Fowlers Gap, Australia. There is a greater probability of rainfall in wet years, but the events themselves also change significantly. Rainfall depth per event was 116% larger on average in wet years than dry, and average event rainfall rate was 85% higher. However, these results are influenced by a small number of very large events in the wet years, and events of <2 mm occur at about the same rate in dry and wet years. Rainfall event profiles in dry years showed more Huff first quartile events likely to promote partitioning of rain into infiltration. In contrast, larger events in wet years showed a preponderance of Huff third quartile profiles likely to be associated with greater partitioning of rainfall into overland flow. This co-variation in rainfall event profile with annual rainfall, not previously described, is reasoned to increase the amplitude of ecological impacts of the SOI-related rainfall variability at this site.     

Greenness Index from Phenocams Performs Well in Linking Climatic Factors and Monitoring Grass Phenology in a Temperate Prairie Ecosystem

Near-surface remote sensing (e.g., digital cameras) has played an important role in capturing plant phenological metrics at either a focal or landscape scale. Exploring the relationship of the digital image-based greenness index (e.g., Gcc, green chromatic coordinate) with that derived from satellites is critical for land surface process research. Moreover, our understanding of how well Gcc time series associate with environmental variables at field stations in North American prairies remains limited. This paper investigated the response of grass Gcc to daily environmental factors in 2018, such as soil moisture (temperature), air temperature, and solar radiation. Thereafter, using a derivative-based phenology extraction method, we evaluated the correspondence between key phenological events (mainly including start, end and length of growing season, and date with maximum greenness value) derived from Gcc, MODIS and VIIRS NDVI (EVI) for the period 2015-2018. The results showed that daily Gcc was in good agreement with ground-level environmental variables. Additionally, multivariate regression analysis identified that the grass growth in the study area was mainly affected by soil temperature and solar radiation, but not by air temperature. High frequency Gcc time series can respond immediately to precipitation events. In the same year, the phenological metrics retrieved from digital cameras and multiple satellites are similar, with spring phenology having a larger relative difference. There are distinct divergences between changing rates in the greenup and senescence stages. Gcc also shows a close relationship with growing degree days (GDD) derived from air temperature. This study evaluated the performance of a digital camera for monitoring vegetation phenological metrics and related climatic factors. This research will enable multiscale modeling of plant phenology and grassland resource management of temperate prairie ecosystems.     

Vegetation greenness modeling in response to climate change for Northeast Thailand

In Northeast Thailand, the climate change has resulted in erratic rainfall and tem- perature patterns. The region has experienced both periods of drought and seasonal floods with the increasing severity. This study investigated the seasonal variation of vegetation greenness based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） in major land cover types in the region. An assessment of the relationship between climate patterns and vegeta- tion conditions observed from NDVI was made. NDVI data were collected from year 2001 to 2009 using multi-temporal Terra MODIS Vegetation Indices Product （MOD13Q1）. NDVI pro- files were developed to measure vegetation dynamics and variation according to land cover types. Meteorological information, i.e. rainfall and temperature, for a 30 year time span from 1980 to 2009 was analyzed for their patterns. Furthermore, the data taken from the period of 2001-2009, were digitally encoded into GIS database and the spatial patterns of monthly rainfall and temperature maps were generated based on kriging technique. The results showed a decreasing trend in NDVI values for both deciduous and evergreen forests. The highest productivity and biomass were observed in dry evergreen forests and the lowest in paddy fields. Temperature was found to be increasing slightly from 1980 to 2009 while no significant trends in rainfall amounts were observed. In dry evergreen forest, NDVI was not correlated with rainfall but was significant negatively correlated with temperature. These re- sults indicated that the overall productivity in dry evergreen forest was affected by increasing temperatures. A vegetation greenness model was developed from correlations between NDVI and meteorological data using linear regression. The model could be used to observe the change in vegetation greenness and dynamics affected by temperature and rainfall.     

祖厉河流域降雨径流泥沙变化特征研究

祖厉河流域位于年降水量200～400 mm之间过渡带,是气候变化最敏感和最为复杂的区域之一。运用祖厉河流域1955-2013年径流量、输沙量与年降雨量的变化趋势、时段特征进行了分析。结果表明：祖厉河流域降雨量、径流量和输沙量存在年际变化大、逐年减小的变化趋势;年降雨量在1995年出现突变点,降雨量存在明显的丰水和枯水变化,丰水时段（1955-1989年）年降水量为376.2 mm,枯水时段（1990-2013年）年降水量为224.9 mm;径流量和泥沙量的突变点分别出现在1995年和2000年;依据UF_k值信度变化趋势,将径流量、输沙量变化分为非显著减少（1955-1971年）、显著减少（1972-1985年）、较显著减少（1986-2000年）和极显著减少（2001-2013年）四个时期。     

Analysis of vegetation seasonality in Sahelian environments using MODIS LAI,in association with land cover and rainfall

Present-day Sahelian vegetation in a highly anthropized semi-arid region is assessed from local to regional scales, through the joint analysis of MODIS LAI (1 km² and 8-day resolutions), daily rainfall, morphopedological and land cover datasets covering the period 2000–2008. The study area is located in northwest Senegal and consists of the “Niayes” and the northwestern “Peanut Basin” eco-regions, characterized by market gardening and rain-fed cultivated crops, respectively. The objectives are i) to analyse at pixel scale LAI time series and their relation to vegetation and soil types, ii) the estimation of phenological metrics (start of season SOS, end of season EOS, growing season length GSL) and their inter-annual variability, iii) to recognize the vegetation responses to rainfall trends (mean annual precipitation, MAP; frequency of rainy events, K; combination of MAP and K, called F).Pixel-scale analyses show that LAI time series 1) describe the actual phenology (agreeing with ground-truth AGHRYMET data), and thus can be used as a proxy for Sahelian vegetation dynamics, 2) are strongly dependent on soil types. Median maps of SOS and EOS suggest an increase of the GSL from Saint-Louis to Dakar, in agreement with both the North-South rainfall gradient and the intensification of agricultural practices around Dakar. Significant correlations (R: 0.64) between annual variation coefficient of LAI and MAP for both herbaceous crops and natural vegetation are highlighted; this correlation is reinforced (R: 0.7) using the rainfall distribution factors K and F. Rainfall thresholds allowing the SOS can be defined for each type of vegetation. These thresholds are estimated at 0–5 mm, 20 mm and 40 mm for natural herbs, herbaceous crops and shrublands, respectively.If previous works revealed the close link between the MAP and the SOS, our results highlight that LAI dynamics are also controlled by rainfall distribution during the Monsoon season. In this study, climatic indicators are proposed for estimating vegetation dynamics and monitoring SOS. Coupling Earth Observation data, such as MODIS LAI, with rainfall data, vegetation and soil information is found to be a reliable method for vegetation monitoring and for assessing the impact of human pressure on vegetation degradation.     

A high resolution Holocene pollen record from Lago do Pires,SE Brazil: vegetation,climate and fire history

Lago do Pires (17° 57 S, 42° 13 W) is situated at 390 m a.s.l. in the foothills of the Serra do Espinhaço, 250 km from the Brazilian Atlantic coast. The original vegetation of the study area has been almost destroyed by pastoral activity. Relicts of a dense 20–30 m tall tropical semidciduous forest are present only on a few hill tops. The dry season of the Lago do Pires region lasts for 4 months and the annual precipitation is 1250 mm. A high resolution pollen record from a 16 m long sediment core, composed of 77 samples, subdivided in 7 zones and 4 subzones, allows a reconstruction of Holocene paleoenvironments. For the early Holocene (9720-8810 B.P.), the results indicate that the region surrounding the lake was dominated by a herb savanna (campo cerrado) withCuratella americana (cerrado tree) and high fire frequency. Species ofCecropia, Urticales and a few others, form small gallery forests along the water courses. This vegetation pattern is consistent with a long dry season (perhaps 6 months) and a low annual precipitation. Between 8810 and 7500 years B.P. gallery forests expanded in the valleys and suggest a period of higher rainfall with shortened dry season (perhaps 5 months). Fire was less frequent. Reduction of gallery forests followed (7500-5530 B.P.), probably related to a return of drier climatic conditions (5–6 months dry season, lower precipitation). Fires were more frequent. Between 5530 and 2780 years B.P. in the vallyes were forests and on the hills still an open cerrado. The dry season probably was about 5 months and the rainfall was higher than in the previous period. Later (2780-970 B.P.) the more open cerrado on the hills changed to more closed cerrado. A dense and closed semideciduous forest existed in the region only in the latest Holocene period (since 970 B.P.) under the current climatic conditions. The vegetation was no longer influenced by fire. A very strong human impact by deforestation and use of fire occurred in the last decades. Today cerrado vegetation is generally restricted to central Brazil and exists in several small isolated Islands (Hueck, 1956) in the area of semideciduous forest in SE Brazil which were more widespread during the drier periods of the Holocene. The wettest period of Holocene occurs in the present millenium.This is the 4th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.     

珠江流域多尺度极端降水时空特征及影响因子研究

基于珠江流域74个气象站点1952~2013年逐日降水和气温数据,采用POT抽样、Mann-Kendall（MK）趋势检验、泊松回归等方法,从降水量级、降水频率及发生时间等方面系统分析了珠江流域年、雨季及旱季3个时间尺度上的极端降水特征,并从降水对温度变化响应及ENSO影响等角度,探讨了极端降水变化特征的机理。研究表明：① 珠江流域极端降水年内分布不均,多发于4~9月,其中6月份发生频率最高;② 珠江流域极端降水频率在雨季及年际间分布较为均匀。但在旱季,珠三角地区极端降水在不同年份差异性较大;③ 在雨季及年际尺度上,极端降水年序列趋势性并不显著;而相对干旱季节,极端降雨量级、发生频次均随年份增加呈显著上升趋势,且发生时间提前。珠江流域农业以水稻(Oryzasativa)种植为主,旱季极端降水增加易导致冬汛及其引起的作物倒伏与农田渍涝等灾害,同时对秋冬防洪提出新的挑战,需要引起人们的关注;④ 温度升高和ENSO事件对珠江流域极端降水过程有显著影响。从ENSO影响的角度讲,在厄尔尼诺年,珠江流域西部极端降水量级和频率增加,而流域东部沿海区域极端降水量级减少,时间延后。     

黄土丘陵区地表水和地下水对降水的响应——以康沟小流域为例

以"退耕还林"为主体的黄土丘陵区生态环境建设在过去10年来取得了显著成效.为揭示"退耕还林"政策实施以来黄土丘陵区的降水与地表水和地下水的关系,本文以延安康沟流域为例,根据1997-2006年延安站的逐日气象数据和康沟流域地表径流、泉水、井水水位实测水文数据,以及康沟流域地形地貌和土地利用等资料,利用相关分析法分析了康...     

近58a我国西北地区干期与湿期变化特征

利用西北地区1960—2017年68个站点逐日降雨气象数据,分别将日降雨小于（大于等于）0.1 mm和1 mm定义为旱日（湿日）,从干期和湿期变化特征的角度分析西北地区雨日年内分配变化。结果表明：西北地区东部年降雨量变化不明显,降雨频率下降,平均降雨强度增加;西北地区西部年降雨量、降雨频率和平均降雨强度均呈现增加趋势,平均降雨强度增加主要是由于降雨量增加速率快于降雨频率增加速率。结合干期和湿期变化特征,发现西北地区东部虽然干期旱日总数增加,但干期平均长度、干期次数和最长干期旱日数变化不明显,同时湿期湿日数和次数减少,说明西北地区东部在降雨量不变情况下,降雨更加集中。在西北地区西部,干期次数增加,但干期旱日总数、干期平均长度以及最长干期旱日数减少,湿期湿日数和湿期次数增加,湿期平均长度不变,西北地区西部在降雨量和降雨频率增加过程中,干期持续时间缩短,对该区域农业生产和生态环境有利。另外,使用不同阈值会影响特征值变化趋势大小及其显著性,甚至会得到相反的变化趋势,说明选择合理阈值对于研究降雨、干期以及湿期变化十分重要,需要结合区域气候特征进一步研究。     

干旱荒漠螨类和跳虫对降雨的响应

目前关于降水变化如何影响和调控荒漠土壤动物分布及多样性的形成与维持生态学机制的认识非常有限。通过对自然降雨后红砂和泡泡刺灌丛下螨类和跳虫群落的动态监测,揭示荒漠小型节肢动物群落组成及多样性对降雨变化的响应规律。结果表明：干季降雨对两种灌木下小型节肢动物、螨类和跳虫数量及类群丰富度影响较小,而湿季降雨对两种灌木下螨类和跳虫数量及类群丰富度影响较大。如7月24.8 mm和8月6.8 mm降雨后两种灌木下小型节肢动物群落、螨类和跳虫的数量及类群丰富度均显著高于5月4.0 mm、6月14.8 mm和6.6 mm的降雨。6月14.8 mm和6.6 mm降雨后两种灌木下小型节肢动物群落在第2天和3天出现峰值;而7月24.8 mm降雨后两种灌木下小型节肢动物群落均呈现先降低后增加的模式;8月6.8 mm降雨后红砂灌丛下小型节肢动物群落呈降低的趋势,而泡泡刺灌丛下小型节肢动物群落变化较小。泡泡刺灌丛下螨类数量及类群丰富度均高于红砂灌丛,而两种灌木下跳虫数量及类群丰富度相差较小,这可能会影响湿季荒漠小型节肢动物群落对自然降雨变化的响应模式。     

长江三角洲各自然季节降水趋势

本文按不同自然季节分析长江三角洲各季降水的变化,根据降水异常年出现的规律,对公元2000年前各季的降水变化趋势作了展望。     

澜沧江流域农业灌溉需水的时空变化(英文)

Based on the data of eight meteorological stations from the 1950s to 2007, current cropping patterns, field water moisture management, we use the Mann-Kendall and the Re-scaled Range Analysis methods to research the changes of humidity and crop irrigation water requirements in the Lancang River Basin. The results show that the annual and dry season average temperatures significantly increased, and the dry season rainfall increased while wet season rainfall decreased. Evaportranspiration (ET0) increased during both dry and wet seasons at all stations except Dali, Jianchuan and Gengma, and the aridity-humidity index decreased at most of the stations. The turning points of weather factors, ET0, the arid-ity-humidity index, paddy irrigation requirements and total agricultural water requirements occurred from the 1960s to the 1990s. The spatial changing tendency of paddy irrigation quota increased with the increase of altitude and latitude, and the correlation coefficients are 0.513 and 0.610, respectively. The maximum value is observed in Weixi, while the minimum in Mengla.     

Reproductive phenology of Isolatocereus dumortieri (Cactaceae) in semiarid scrub in central Mexico: Effect of rain during the dry season

The giant cactus Isolatocereus dumortieri is a dominant species of the semiarid scrub of central Mexico. Its reproductive period is during the dry season, and it produces essential resources (pollen, nectar and fruits) for a great variety of animal species. We related the production of reproductive structures with water variables in the soil–plant system. The main goal of the present study was to evaluate the consequences of a change in rainfall pattern on the phenology of I. dumortieri. We watered some plants in the dry season to simulate heavy rain events, and to test the hypothesis that water availability during the reproductive season has a negative effect on fruiting and a positive effect on vegetative growth. The seasonality of rain events caused variations in soil water potential and plant osmotic potential, and we found that both variables influenced fruit production. The regression models relating the number of fruits with soil water potential, rainfall and osmotic potential were significant for all three study periods. The highest production of reproductive structures occurred in the driest year (2009), during which there was an ENSO event. Watering did not have a significant effect on osmotic potential or growth in the cacti. However, the watering × time interaction had a negative effect on the number of immature fruits. That is, at the end of the experiment, the plants that received the most water showed a decrease in the number of fruits. Plant growth during the rainy period was significantly greater than during the dry period. The results support the hypothesis that a change in rainfall pattern during the dry season has an effect on fruit production. Vegetative growth, however, occurred only during the wet season.     

THE DEPENDENCE OF THE ANNUAL TOTAL ON THE NUMBER OF RAIN‐SPELLS AND THEIR YIELD IN THE MEDITERRANEAN

Rain‐spells are a key parameter for examining the variation in rainfall amounts, especially in arid and semi‐arid areas. A rain‐spell is defined as a period of consecutive days with rainfall above a certain determined Daily Rainfall Threshold (DRT). Two different seasons or two stations may have the same average TOTAL, but different synoptic conditions are the cause for the differences in their Number of Rain‐Spells (NRS) their Rain‐Spells Yield (RSY) or both. The present study examines whether a season is drier/wetter according to its length, or whether it depends on the NRS in 41 Mediterranean stations. It analyses the relationships between dry/wet seasons and various elements of the rain‐spells. These objectives are analysed both at a basin level of the entire Mediterranean, and at a station level. The main conclusions at the basin level are that precipitation amounts are not related to the length of the seasons, and therefore, a Short or a Long season can be either Dry or Wet. The significant positive correlation between the TOTAL and the annual NRS that was found indicates that a Dry season tends to have Few rain‐spells and a Wet season tends to have Many rain‐spells. At the station level of most stations, a Dry or Wet season is caused mainly by changes in the RSY and less so by changes in the NRS. This tendency is more evident in the southern Mediterranean. Furthermore, Wet seasons are characterized by an increase in the number of Long rain‐spells (longer than three days) and mainly in the RSY of these spells. These conclusions may serve to characterize the rainfall regime under any scenario due to a climatic change.