Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Mesoscale Model for GABLS3: Impact of Boundary-Layer Schemes,Boundary Conditions and Spin-Up

We evaluated the performance of the three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, specifically the performance of the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrizations. For this purpose, Cabauw tower observations were used, with the study extending beyond the third GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Study (GABLS3) one-dimensional model intercomparison. The WRF model (version 3.4.1) contains 12 different PBL parametrizations, most of which have been only partially evaluated. The GABLS3 case offers a clear opportunity to evaluate model performance, focusing on time series of near-surface weather variables, radiation and surface flux budgets, vertical structure and the nighttime inertial oscillation. The model results revealed substantial differences between the PBL schemes. Generally, non-local schemes tend to produce higher temperatures and higher wind speeds than local schemes, in particular, for nighttime. The WRF model underestimates the 2-m temperature during daytime (about \(2\) K) and substantially underestimates it at night (about \(4\) K), in contrast to the previous studies where modelled 2-m temperature was overestimated. Considering the 10-m wind speed, during the night turbulent kinetic energy based schemes tend to produce lower wind speeds than other schemes. In all simulations the sensible and latent heat fluxes were well reproduced. For the net radiation and the soil heat flux we found good agreement with daytime observations but underestimations at night. Concerning the vertical profiles, the selected non-local PBL schemes underestimate the PBL depth and the low-level jet altitude at night by about 50 m, although with the correct wind speed. The latter contradicts most previous studies and can be attributed to the revised stability function in the Yonsei University PBL scheme. The local, turbulent kinetic energy based PBL schemes estimated the low-level jet altitude and strength more accurately. Compared to the observations, all model simulations show a similar structure for the potential temperature, with a consistent cold bias ( \(\approx \) 2 K) in the upper PBL. In addition to the sensitivity to the PBL schemes, we studied the sensitivity to technical features such as horizontal resolution and domain size. We found a substantial difference in the model performance for a range of 12, 18 and 24 h spin-up times, longer spin-up time decreased the modelled wind speed bias, but it strengthened the negative temperature bias. The sensitivity of the model to the vertical resolution of the input and boundary conditions on the model performance is confirmed, and its influence appeared most significant for the non-local PBL parametrizations.     

High-resolution Simulation of an Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in Shanghai Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

In this study,an extreme rainfall event that occurred on 25 May 2018 over Shanghai and its nearby area was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model,with a focus on the effects of planetary boundary layer(PBL)physics using double nesting with large grid ratios(15:1 and 9:1).The sensitivity of the precipitation forecast was examined through three PBL schemes:the Yonsei University Scheme,the Mellor?Yamada?Nakanishi Niino Level 2.5(MYNN)scheme,and the Mellor?Yamada?Janjic scheme.The PBL effects on boundary layer structures,convective thermodynamic and large-scale forcings were investigated to explain the model differences in extreme rainfall distributions and hourly variations.The results indicated that in single coarser grids(15 km and 9 km),the extreme rainfall amount was largely underestimated with all three PBL schemes.In the inner 1-km grid,the underestimated intensity was improved;however,using the MYNN scheme for the 1-km grid domain with explicitly resolved convection and nested within the 9-km grid using the Kain?Fritsch cumulus scheme,significant advantages over the other PBL schemes are revealed in predicting the extreme rainfall distribution and the time of primary peak rainfall.MYNN,with the weakest vertical mixing,produced the shallowest and most humid inversion layer with the lowest lifting condensation level,but stronger wind fields and upward motions from the top of the boundary layer to upper levels.These factors all facilitate the development of deep convection and moisture transport for intense precipitation,and result in its most realistic prediction of the primary rainfall peak.     

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land–atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant sensitivity responses are found over the karst regions, including pronounced warming and cooling effects on the near-surface atmosphere from barren and forested land cover, respectively; (3) the barren ground in the karst regions provides conditions favourable for convective development under certain conditions. Therefore, it is suggested that karst and non-karst landscapes should be distinguished, and their physical processes should be considered for future model development.     

Assessment of Planetary-Boundary-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Within and Above an Urban Canopy Layer

We tested several planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model against measured wind speed and direction, temperature and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) at three levels (5, 9, 25 m). The Urban Turbulence Project dataset, gathered from the outskirts of Turin, Italy and used for the comparison, provides measurements made by sonic anemometers for more than 1 year. In contrast to other similar studies, which have mainly focused on short-time periods, we considered 2 months of measurements (January and July) representing both the seasonal and the daily variabilities. To understand how the WRF-model PBL schemes perform in an urban environment, often characterized by low wind-speed conditions, we first compared six PBL schemes against observations taken by the highest anemometer located in the inertial sub-layer. The availability of the TKE measurements allows us to directly evaluate the performances of the model; results of the model evaluation are presented in terms of quantile versus quantile plots and statistical indices. Secondly, we considered WRF-model PBL schemes that can be coupled to the urban-surface exchange parametrizations and compared the simulation results with measurements from the two lower anemometers located inside the canopy layer. We find that the PBL schemes accounting for TKE are more accurate and the model representation of the roughness sub-layer improves when the urban model is coupled to each PBL scheme.     

Upgrades to the Boundary-Layer Scheme in the Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Recent upgrades to the boundary-layer scheme in the UK Met Office operational global Numerical Weather Prediction model are documented. These comprise a reduction in turbulent mixing in stable conditions over the sea, and the inclusion of non-local momentum mixing in convective conditions. The dependence of low-level winds on changing stability is shown to have been significantly improved. Crucially, it is also found that these improvements in local performance have been achieved without degrading the model skill in terms of synoptic evolution—something that has proved difficult to achieve in the past in many operational models. In fact some aspects of the large-scale flow (e.g. zonal mean winds) have been slightly improved.     

Verification of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model when Forecasting Daily Surface Conditions in Southern Alberta

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was compared with daily surface observations to verify the accuracy of the WRF model in forecasting surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind speed, and direction. Daily forecasts for the following two days were produced at nine locations across southern Alberta, Canada. Model output was verified using station observations to determine the differences in forecast accuracy for each season.

Although there were seasonal differences in the WRF model, the summer season forecasts generally had the greatest accuracy, determined by the lowest root mean square errors, whereas the winter season forecasts were the least accurate. The WRF model generally produced skillful forecasts throughout the year although with a smaller diurnal temperature range than observed. The WRF model forecast the prevailing wind direction more accurately than other directions, but it tended to slightly overestimate precipitation amounts. A sensitivity analysis consisting of three microphysics schemes showed relatively minor differences between simulated precipitation as well as 2?m surface temperatures.     

Comments on the Synergism Between the Analytic Planetary Boundary-Layer Model and Remote Sensing Data

This paper is adapted from a presentation at the session of the European Geophysical Society meeting in 2002 honouring Joost Businger. It documents the interaction of the non-linear planetary boundary-layer (PBL) model (UW-PBL) and satellite remote sensing of marine surface winds from verification and calibration studies for the sensor model function to the current state of verification of the model by satellite data. It is also a personal history where Joost Businger had seminal input to this research at several critical junctures. The first scatterometer in space was on SeaSat in 1978, while currently in orbit there are the QuikSCAT and ERS-2 scatterometers and the WindSat radiometer. The volume and detail of data from the scatterometers during the past decade are unprecedented, though the value of these data depends on a careful interpretation of the PBL dynamics. The model functions (algorithms) that relate surface wind to sensor signal have evolved from straight empirical correlation with simple surface-layer 10-m winds to satellite sensor model functions for surface pressure fields. A surface stress model function is also available. The validation data for the satellite model functions depended crucially on the PBL solution. The non-linear solution for the flow of fluid in the boundary layer of a rotating coordinate system was completed in 1969. The implications for traditional ways of measuring and modelling the PBL were huge and continue to this day. Unfortunately, this solution replaced an elegant one by Ekman with a stability/finite perturbation equilibrium solution. Consequently, there has been great reluctance to accept this solution. The verification of model predictions has been obtained from the satellite data.     

Performance of the Wind Farm Parameterization Scheme Coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model under Multiple Resolution Regimes for Simulating an Onshore Wind Farm

We use the Wind Farm Parameterization(WFP) scheme coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model under multiple resolution regimes to simulate turbulent wake dynamics generated by a real onshore wind farm and their influence at the local meteorological scale. The model outputs are compared with earlier modeling and observation studies. It is found that higher vertical and horizontal resolutions have great impacts on the simulated wake flow dynamics. The corresponding wind speed deficit and turbulent kinetic energy results match well with previous studies. In addition, the effect of horizontal resolution on near-surface meteorology is significantly higher than that of vertical resolution. The wake flow field extends from the start of the wind farm to downstream within 10 km, where the wind speed deficit may exceed 4%. For a height of 150 m or at a distance of about 25 km downstream, the wind speed deficit is around 2%. This indicates that, at a distance of more than 25 km downstream, the impact of the wind turbines can be ignored. Analysis of near-surface meteorology indicates a night and early morning warming near the surface, and increase in near-surface water vapor mixing ratio with decreasing surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. During daytime, a slight cooling near the surface and decrease in the near-surface water vapor mixing ratio with increasing surface sensible and latent heat fluxes is noticed over the wind farm area.     

Simulations of Coastal Fog in the Canadian Atlantic with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - We evaluate the efficacy of microphysics and planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) parametrizations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulation of the...     

Intercomparison of Planetary Boundary-Layer Parametrizations in the WRF Model for a Single Day from CASES-99

This study compares five planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrizations in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model for a single day from the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) field program. The five schemes include two first-order closure schemes—the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2), and three turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure schemes—the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ), quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE), and Bougeault–Lacarrére (BouLac) PBL. The comparison results reveal that discrepancies among thermodynamic surface variables from different schemes are large at daytime, while the variables converge at nighttime with large deviations from those observed. On the other hand, wind components are more divergent at nighttime with significant biases. Regarding PBL structures, a non-local scheme with the entrainment flux proportional to the surface flux is favourable in unstable conditions. In stable conditions, the local TKE closure schemes show better performance. The sensitivity of simulated variables to surface-layer parametrizations is also investigated to assess relative contributions of the surface-layer parametrizations to typical features of each PBL scheme. In the surface layer, temperature and moisture are more strongly influenced by surface-layer formulations than by PBL mixing algorithms in both convective and stable regimes, while wind speed depends on vertical diffusion formulations in the convective regime. Regarding PBL structures, surface-layer formulations only contribute to near-surface variability and then PBL mean properties, whereas shapes of the profiles are determined by PBL mixing algorithms.     

半干旱区陆面模式参数对水分循环的敏感性研究

植被覆盖对陆气之间物质和能量交换过程具有极其重要的影响,但植被覆盖对于交换过程的影响因子很多,关系复杂.作者研究了各种植被因子对陆气之间水分循环的作用和相对重要性.首先通过单点NO-AH模式对吉林通榆农田下垫面2004年土壤和边界层各物理量进行模拟,并与观测结果比较和评价,肯定了单点NOAH模式模拟能力.使用这一模式进行敏感试验,将与植被有关的参数分别在其取值范围取较大与较小值,比较水分循环各物理量如土壤湿度、土壤蒸发、植被蒸腾等的变化情况.试验表明在各参数中植被气孔阻抗、根系深度、土壤湿度初值和反照率对水分循环的影响较大,而叶面积指数、粗糙度和冠层阻抗则影响较小.     

夏季武汉市电网气象敏感负荷预测模型

利用2009—2010年武汉市日用电负荷资料和气象资料,提出了基于电网负荷的分解算法,将电网日最大负荷分解为基础负荷与气象敏感负荷2个主要分量,其中,气象敏感负荷与包含了气温、相对湿度及风速的综合气象敏感负荷条件指数相关。利用相关比法,分析了气象敏感负荷与气象敏感负荷条件指数的非线性关系,分析了气象敏感负荷条件指数变化与负荷变化关系。基于均方偏差最小原理和非线性最小二乘法,建立了夏季武汉电网气象敏感负荷与气象敏感负荷条件指数的多项式预测关系模型。2011—2012年夏季模型应用检验表明,预测平均误差接近6%。该模型可用于夏季电力气象服务工作。     

两次降雪天气过程预报中边界层风廓线雷达资料的应用

通过分析2009年10月31日至11月1日和2009年11月9-10日北京两次不同类型降雪天气过程中海淀边界层风廓线仪数据发现:①降雪开始前2h内底层偏东气流建立,且该气流里均有风速突然加强的现象,这对短时临近预报中预报降雪的起始时间有一定参考价值;②700 hPa以上出现冷平流或者冷平流加强且高度降低,也是降雪即将开始的一个特征;③风廓线资料计算得到的温度平流廓线可以较好的反应大气稳定度情况,为判断降雪是否为对流性降雪提供可靠依据.在临近预报中加强风廓线和温度平流的监测,对临近转折性天气的预报有指示意义.     

基于WRF模式的风电场短期风速集成预报方法研究

风能始源于大气的运动,具有很大的随机性和间歇性。风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确性具有重要的意义。对于复杂地形条件下,风速的预报一直是各国研究的难点和重点。为了提高风电场短期风速预报的准确性,本研究采用多种边界层参数化方案来集成预报风速,将各单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速及相应的实测风速数据,应用随机森林算法建立集成预报模型,对风电场的短期风速进行集成预报研究。试验结果表明,采用集成预报风速方法,预报的风速误差相比于单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速误差明显减小,对研究区域的风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的模拟效果,能够有效提高风速预报的准确率。     

WT模型在山区高速公路风预报订正中的应用

利用2001—2020年河北省142个国家气象站逐日最大风速资料分析了近20年河北风速变化背景。择选2021年2—5月张家口、崇礼区域日极大风速13.9 m/s以上、日10 min平均风速最大值8 m/s以上的30个代表日,运用张承高速公路沿线崇礼国家气象站、南窝铺及场地2套区域气象站、高家营及西湾子2套交通气象站的逐分钟风向风速观测资料,ECMWF数值模式输出的地面10 m风预报资料,以及3″分辨率的SRTM3地形资料,应用Meteodyn WT模型对张承高速公路沿线2个解域区域内的风预报结果进行了订正和检验。结果表明：WT模型输出风速与实际观测风速相关系数可达0.6225并通过0.001显著性检验,各代表站模拟的结果与实况的误差80%以上在±2 m/s之间,地形开阔处误差明显减小;风向也表现出很高的一致性。说明应用WT模型对山区高速公路沿线风数值预报进行订正是可行的,各地可结合本地地形数据以及相对稳定可靠的风的数值预报产品作为WT模型的驱动数据源,开展本地山区高速公路沿线风的订正应用。