三种土壤铅和镉的质量基准初步研究*

在制定地下水源保护区污染控制措施时,最常遇到的问题之一是缺少土壤包气带和含水层中化学物质的基准和标准。文中以铅、镉为例,结合北京、唐山地下水水源地实际情况,运用“平衡分配法”,根据土壤对铅和镉的吸附容量和分配系数研究包气带土壤中的铅和镉的质量基准。结果表明,土壤中铅和镉的质量基准与溶液pH值成对数线性关系,据此可计算不同pH条件下的土壤中重金属的质量基准。     

A TEST FOR RANDOMNESS OF DIRECTIONS

i
The 5 per cent and 1 per cent significance points are given for a test of randomness of unit vectors in three dimensions. The test has been designed for use in the analysis of palaeomagnetic data.     

RANK-ORDER ANALYSIS FOR ROBUST MULTIRESPONSE,MULTIBLOCK COMPARISONS:EVALUATION OF HERBICIDE INTERACTIONS

Studies of interactions among bioactive compounds are often difficult to interpret unambiguously.A priori assumptions about the nature of such interactions can seriously distort analysis of the data.Byapplying a rank order analysis appropriate to the naturally ordinal scale of response to xenobiotic insult,several co-herbicides were successfully identified from among numerous candidates in an experimentinvolving multiple blocks,rates and species.Moreover,underlying herbicide interactions weresubstantiated and identified which were not apparent by more traditional parametric analysis.     

A TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION

Partial least squares (PLS) regression is a commonly used statistical technique for performingmultivariate calibration, especially in situations where there are more variables than samples. Choosingthe number of factors to include in a model is a decision that all users of PLS must make, but iscomplicated by the large number of empirical tests available. In most instances predictive ability is themost desired property of a PLS model and so interest has centred on making this choice based on aninternal validation process. A popular approach is the calculation of a cross-validated r~2 to gauge howmuch variance in the dependent variable can be explained from leave-one-out predictions. Using MonteCarlo simulations for different sizes of data set, the influence of chance effects on the cross-validationprocess is investigated. The results are presented as tables of critical values which are compared againstthe values of cross-validated r~2 obtained from the user's own data set. This gives a formal test forpredictive ability of a PLS model with a given number of dimensions.     

极区电离层TEC经验模型的建立及适用性分析

利用南极地区40多个GPS跟踪站2010年全年的实测数据,实现了极区电离层TEC建模,对多项式模型、广义三角级数函数模型、低阶球谐函数模型、改进的球谐函数模型以及球冠谐函数模型等五种电离层经验模型进行了比较,并评估了其在极区的适用性情况。结果表明,各个模型在极区都可以取得比较好的拟合精度,残差均值在0.1TECU以内,均方根误差在2 TECU以内。     

TESTING FOR REDUNDANCY IN PRODUCT QUALITY CONTROL TEST CRITERIA:AN APPLICATION TO AVIATION TURBINE FUEL

Given a set of test criteria that determine a quality specification,the question often arises whether anyof the tests are redundant because of intercorrelations.Simple selection of tests on the basis of partialcorrelations with the other tests is rejected on the basis that the random error in the data may be causingspurious correlations.One method is to use cross-validation to define the systematic principal components and examine thecorrelation structure in this reduced space.It is shown that the presence of principal componentsdominated by individual tests(‘variable specific’PCs),which are indicated by cross-validation as beingnon-systematic,must be taken into account.Having defined the dimensionality,a variable reductionmethod based on Procrustes rotation selects subsets of tests that preserve the structure of the samples inmultivariate space.This is an attractive proposition in the context of maintaining a quality controlspecification.It is also shown that the variable reduction technique can be used to aid the identificationof the true dimensionality of the data space.This approach is applied to a number of routine tests carriedout on aviation turbine fuel.     

ON CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE PRODUCT OF THREE MEANS OF THREE NORMALEY DISTRIBUTED POPULATIONS

In many environmental applications,such as exposure assessment and risk modelling,the desiredestimate is a random variable computed as the product of three independently distributed randomvariables.These variables may not necessarily have the same mean and variance.The method for findingthe 100(1-α)% confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable has been proposed bysome practitioners as the product of the 100(1-α)% confidence interval of the three means.In this paperwe show that the distribution of the product of three independent normal random variables is not normal.We find the mean and variance of the product distribution.Further,we show that although the meanof the product is equal to the product of the means,the product of the three confidence intervals is nota good approximation of the confidence intervals for the mean of the product variable.The confidenceinterval of the mean of the product variable may be estimated by computer simulation.An algorithmfor estimating the confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable is given.The programimplementing this algorithm is given as an appendix.     

三峡库区经济发展评价

当前三峡库区经济发展存在主要产业经济效益低，国有产业亏损大，产业规模小，城镇经济中心作用弱等突出问题．库区开发必需是持久战和持续发展相结合，将库区基础设施建设放在重要地位，搞好资金、行业、所有制之间的优化组合，大力发展第三产业；要准备用几十年的艰苦奋斗，才能赶上全国平均水平．     

遥感影像三维地形建模技术探讨——以昆明市为例

以昆明市为例，利用1：50000纸质地形图在ArcGIS中完成等高线矢量化，并在ERDAS中建立高精度的DEM数据。再采用ETM＋影像制作的昆明市正射影像作为三维表面的纹理信息，应用ERDAS IMAGINE8．7的VirtualGIS模块，在相同的投影坐标系统下，将数字高程模型（DEM）数据与遥感正射影像进行叠加实现了昆明市的三维地形可视化。     

SHORT COMMUNICATION AN EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR FITTING CHRONOPOTENTIOMETRIC DATA THROUGH THE USE OF DUMMY VARIABLES

A procedure for determining the transition time in chronopotentiometry is proposed.The method isbased on the existence of three straight sections in a chronopotentiometric curve.The experimentalvalues are fitted by multilinear regression using dummy variables.Agreement between the proposedmethod and a classical graphical procedure is observed.     

小良试验站三种植被类型地表径流效应的对比研究

本文分析研究了３种植被类型下的地表径流在汇流、洪峰及径流过程上的特征，差异是巨大的。在径流过程上桉树林和裸地的变地剧烈，几乎没有什么调蓄作用，洪峰流量占一次性降水径流量的绝大部分，涨水和退水流量都较小。本文应用灰色系统ＧＭ（２，１）模型，成功地预测了以年和以月为时间尺度的地表径流序列，其预测模型可以用来对这些时间尺度的地表径流进行预报。     

TOWARDS A UNIFORM CONCEPT FOR THE COMPARISON AND EXTRAPOLATION OF ROCKWALL RETREAT AND ROCKFALL SUPPLY

Rates of rockwall retreat and rockfall supply are fundamental components of sediment budgets in steep environments. However, the standard procedure of referencing rockwall retreat rates using only lithology is inconsistent with research findings and results in a variability that exceeds three orders of magnitude. The concept proposed in this paper argues that the complexity inherent in rockfall studies can be reduced if the stages of (i) backweathering, (ii) filling and depletion of intermediate storage on the rock face and (iii) final rockfall supply onto the talus slopes are separated as these have different response functions and controlling factors. Backweathering responds to preweathering and weathering conditions whereas the filling and depletion of intermediate storage in the rock face is mainly a function of internal and external triggers. The noise apparent in backweathering rates and rockfall supply can be reduced by integrating the relevant controlling factors in the response functions. Simple conceptual models for the three stages are developed and are linked by a time‐dependent ‘rockfall delivery rate’, which is defined as the difference between backweathering and rockfall supply, thus reflecting the specific importance of intermediate storage in the rock face. Existing studies can be characterized according to their ‘rockfall delivery ratio’, a concept similar to the ‘sediment delivery ratio’ used in fluvial geomorphology. Their outputs can be qualified as trigger‐dependent rockfall supply rates or backweathering rates dependent on (pre‐)weathering conditions. It is shown that the existing quantitative backweathering and rockfall supply models implicitly follow the proposed conceptual models and can be accommodated into the uniform model. Suggestions are made for how best to incorporate non‐linearities, phase transitions, path dependencies and different timescales into rockfall response functions.     

AN EVALUATION OF SAS/GRAPH SOFTWARE FOR COMPUTER CARTOGRAPHY1

The SAS® computer software system, widely used and respected for its capabilities in statistical analysis and data base management, now includes a new set of graphic and cartographic procedures called SAS GRAPH?. We have used these cartographic procedures in research on mapping ethno-cultural census data from metropolitan areas in Ontario and in undergraduate and graduate courses in computer cartography. On the basis of that experience, we describe and evaluate SAS/GRAPH'S cartographic capabilities and illustrate with maps drawn by various devices.     

一种垂向卸荷型浅生时效构造的地质力学模拟

采用地质力学模拟方法 ,再现了铜街子水电站浅生时效构造的形成演化过程。研究表明 ,它是区域性剥蚀卸荷过程中因岩体中残余应变能释放、时效变形而在浅部岩体中形成的一种垂向卸荷型变形破裂迹象。     

三峡水库淹没区农业人口安置问题的几点意见

长江三峡淹没区农业人口就近安置的设想,梯田建设,进一步探索解决问题的途径,试验研究的序幕等几个方面提出了自己的看法们应注意的问题。     

长江三峡库区生态旅游产品开发构想

生态旅游是与环境保护结合最为紧密的一种旅游形式，是2l世纪旅游发展的新趋势。长江三峡库区拥有丰富的生态旅游资源，具备了开展生态旅游的基本条件。但是，生态旅游的开发必须落脚到具体的旅游产品开发和设计上。在国内外有关生态旅游理论的指导下，通过对长江三峡库区生态旅游产品开发条件的分析，提出了应大力开发科学考察、科普教育、探险、漂流、民族风情、生态农业等系列生态旅游产品。     

南极地区小象幅航测内业成图

本文阐述了用１２０型非量测相机对南极中山站地区所摄制的１４００００小象幅航片制作１５０００地形图、正射像片图及１１００００地形图的原理、方法和精度。在外定向中适当增加控制点及考虑到加入适当的权的情况下，其外定向最大对点误差平面为２．２ｍ，高程为１．２ｍ。所制作的正射像片图和相应的地形图套合中误差为０．１４ｍｍ。其结果完全可满足南极科研、考察的要求     

ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTIVE RANK OF A (CO)VARIANCE MATRIX: A NON-PARAMETRIC GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST

Each eigenvector of the dispersion matrix[X]~T[X]was shown to be a partial predictor of the originaldata matrix [X],the sum of the predictions from the individual principal components being equal to theexpectance of [X].By comparing the distributions of the members of two neighbouring predictedmatrices,[X]_(1...i)and [X](1...i+1)(i.e.the sums of the first i and i+1 individual predictions respectively),it was shown that they should be indistinguishable provided that i is equal to or greater than the effectiverank of [X],and significantly different otherwise.This was confirmed by analysing the visible absorptionspectra of methyl orange and methyl red solutions as well as the Raman spectra of Na_2SO_4 and MgSO_4solutions.On the grounds of these findings,a non-parametric goodness-of-fit test for assessing theeffective rank of[X]was proposed which proved to be comparatively conservative and more robust thanmost currently used tests.     

地理信息系统的地学信息需求分析模式

GIS作为信息系统有特定的信息需要,它包括数据内容、数据形式和信息处理模式等,IRA(信息需求分析)目的在于描述信息内容范畴、形式和信息处理所需的模型体系。在本文中,我们建议了一个IRA分析方法,这个方法描述在图1中,在这个分析模式中,功能需求是分析的中心;功能需求由GIS的应用目标和信息的可能的组织特征、区域特征等决定,由功能需求决定信息需求。实验表明,这一模式适合微机系统。     

阿拉善荒漠三个草地类牧草中化学元素特点的研究

对阿拉善荒漠微温干旱、微温极干和暖温极干三个草地类９科４４种牧草中常量元素（Ｎ、Ｃａ、Ｐ）和微量元素（Ｆｅ、Ｍｎ、Ｚｎ、Ｃｕ、Ｃｏ、Ｍｏ、Ｓｅ）含量的变化特征、丰缺程度和生物吸收序列的研究结果表明，该区不同科牧草中各元素的含量变幅很大，但其吸收各元素多寡的趋势基本一致。