综合评估多元判据的大—暴雨相似预报模式

提出一个综合评估多元判据的大—暴雨客观相似预报方案。方案应用细网格资料和数值天气预报产品，构造预报时刻前后的不同尺度天气系统和多层次各种要素的动态变化的客观相似判据。通过定义非线性的相似指数综合评估历史样本在多元判据下的相似程度，从而找到相似样本。应用相似样本对应的天气过程预报大—暴雨的发生与否，并通过相似指数的权重综合，进行大—暴雨的定量预测。预报试验表明该方案对大—暴雨发生具有一定的预报能力。     

多元判据综合评估中期天气客观相似预报模式

提出一个对多元判据综合评估的中期天气客观相似预报模式。模式应用同中期天气过程的时间—空间尺度相适应的经过时间滤波的大气环流背景为客观判据，比较全面地评估了预报时刻前后多层次、多要素的大气环流动态变化的相似，通过定义相似指数综合评估在多元判据下样本的相似程度，从相似时域的历史样本中找到较佳相似的中期过程，预测未来l～10天的中期天气过程。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。     

一个ENSO动力-相似误差订正模式及其后报初检验

为有效利用历史资料中的相似信息,减小模式误差对ENSO这类跨季节-年际尺度预测问题的影响提高动力模式的预测水平.作者利用一种基于统计相似的模式误差订正方法,以国家气候中心简化海气耦合模式为平台建立了相应的动力-相似误差订正(DAEC)模式,并着重探讨了系统相似程度(全相似或部分相似)、误差重估周期以及相似样本个数等因素对预报效果的影响.结果表明,利用该方法可以有效地改善原有模式的预报性能,其中 "全相似" 比 "部分相似" 更能反映海气耦合系统的相似程度,从而对模式误差做出更为准确的估计,使预报误差明显减小.海洋和大气的误差重估周期对结果也有较大影响,在不同相似程度下分别存在着某种最优配置使得预报效果达到最佳.另外,在对相似样本存在状况及影响的研究中则发现在当前资料长度内整体上只存在着有限个相似样本,在此范围内随着样本取样数目的增加DAEC模式的预报性能逐渐提高.     

形势场相似计算方案的比较研究

结合天气分析方法,对常用的形势场相似算法效果进行了对比分析,结果表明:"相关系数"是较好的"形"相似判据;对经向和纬向分别计算相似度可以发掘出更多有预报参考价值的信息;另外,对相似计算方案的边界条件及执行效率等问题也作了探讨.     

判断大气要素场相似度的相似面积比方法

目前常用的相似量一般是对样本差异的一个平均意义上的描述,在判断样本相似时难免受到个别过大或过小的样本因子的影响。针对这个问题,提出一种新的相似性度量方法——相似面积比方法,试图从全局的角度来考虑样本相似的选取问题。首先将原始数据标准化,根据对样本间距离的统计分析确定一个判断相似的阈值,然后计算两个样本中距离小于阈值的面积与总面积的比来判定两个样本的相似程度,最后利用2001 2011年冬季00:00(世界时)NCEP FNL温度、高度和风场的全球分析资料对该方法进行了验证。结果表明,数据标准化后可以得到值域范围大致相同的无量纲变量场,有利于多层次多变量的综合性相似判据的建立;与海明距离、相关系数相比,相似面积比选取的相似样本和基准样本在分布形态上较为接近,但相似面积比对高纬地区的相似判断较弱。基于上述三种相似性方法,利用1948 2013年NCEP月平均温度再分析资料进行长期天气预报试验表明,三种方法在相似样本的选取上有一定数量的重合率;从相似预报效果来看,相似面积比方法最好,海明距离方法次之,相关系数方法较差。     

基于CMA-MESO冰粒子含量的雨雪相态判据应用

利用中国气象局中尺度模式(CMA-MESO)云降水物理直接输出的水凝物混合比, 确定基于冰相水凝物占比的雨雪相态判据, 并应用于2023年1月14—15日我国大范围降水过程的雨雪相态判别。结果表明:该判据明显改善了基于温度和高度场的厚度判据对我国东部地区雨夹雪范围判别偏大、对分散性雨夹雪漏报的问题, 6~18 h时效雨夹雪预报TS评分较厚度判据提升75%~100%, 24 h时效降雪预报TS评分较厚度判据提升67%;对全国雨雪范围判别合理, 对小范围雨夹雪具有指示作用;对全国3~36 h时效降雨、降雪和雨夹雪预报TS评分为0.76~0.62, 0.69~0.63和0.11~0.08;对降雨和降雪存在一定空报和漏报, 对24 h时效雨夹雪空报明显;对相态转换过程有较好指示效果, 判别代表站相态转换开始时间误差为1~2 h, 对我国东部地区代表站的相态转换和雨夹雪持续时间判别优于厚度判据, 基于厚度判据雨夹雪预报持续时间偏长。研究结果可为雨雪相态业务预报提供客观预报产品参考。     

热带气旋定量降水预报的动力相似方案

该文提出一个热带气旋定量降水预报(QPF) 的动力相似方案。方案应用热带气旋初始参数、历史过程的天气形势场和物理量场及数值预报产品, 构造预报区域内当前时刻至未来时刻环境要素场的多元客观相似判据。通过定义非线性的相似指数综合评估历史热带气旋样本与预报热带气旋在多元判据下的连续动态相似程度, 以此找到相似样本。应用相似样本的历史降水量记录进行相似指数的权重综合, 得到热带气旋未来6~48 h降水量的定点、定量预报值。预报试验表明该方案具有一定的预报技巧。     

常用相似性判据的检验和综合相似系数的使用

文章对相似预报方法常用的几个相似性判据作了客观检验和讨论，同时提出了综合相似系数，2000年6～8月黄淮主汛期郑州市气象台降水预报业务现场试验表明，综合相似系数在降水相似预报和24h暴雨预报中有较好的表现。     

逐步引进因子场作相似预报

首先通过数学模型计算出不同样本之间的气象因子场的相似系数和表征气象因子场与天气现象之间关系的相关特征量 ,然后用相似系数和相关特征量作参数 ,以预报拟合率为判据 ,逐个引进因子场 ,组建出最优相似预报方程 ,最终作出准确率较高的客观要素预报。     

综合多级相似预报技术在暴雨短期预报中的检验

选取我国浙东南沿海特定预报区为研究范围, 对该地区不同型 (冷锋型、台风型、准静止锋型、气旋型、倒槽型等) 天气过程引发的暴雨进行研究, 开发出一种新的暴雨预报方法———综合多级相似技术。该技术采用减空法和极值剔除法对因子进行筛选, 采用多种气象要素和多种物理因子场综合, 进行各级相似试验和预报, 较前人普遍采用的单因子求相似离度和分级试验更进一步。提出相似判据在描述样本之间相似程度时随相似因子、相似区域的不同而有较大差异的思想, 并采取如下办法解决这个技术难题:在因子筛选过程中采用因子组合方法, 全面考虑各种优势因子及其组合, 对描述样本之间的相似程度发挥了较好的作用。此外, 通过双时次滚动预报减少漏报, 提高对灾害性天气的预警能力。每一种暴雨类型试验的CSI历史拟合值都在0.40以上, 最高值超过0.60, 试报CSI平均值为0.37, 试验结果说明该技术具有较强的平均预报能力。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.