Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters in China between 2004 and 2009 based on gray fixed weight cluster analysis

Rainstorm and flood disasters frequently occur in China, causing heavy losses for people’s lives and property and reducing the capability of sustainable development of the national and local economy. In this study, the risks of the rainstorm and flood disasters are assessed for the Chinese mainland, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan and also employ the historical data of seven indicators, including the affected area of crops, the affected population, the direct economic loss, and etc., from 2004 to 2009. Based on the large 1,302 historical sample data, the impact of rainstorm and flood disasters were analyzed using the methodology of gray fixed weight cluster analysis according to disaster losses, which were divided into the three gray classes of high, medium, and low. The regional differences of the risk assessment of the rainstorm and flood disasters are discussed, and the dynamical risk zoning map is conducted. The results show a consistent conclusion with the actual losses of rainstorm and flood disasters over each administrative district, which can provide more scientific evidence for the relevant departments of disaster prevention and mitigation.     

Real-time identification of urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters based on Weibo big data

With the acceleration of urbanisation in China, preventing and reducing the economic losses and casualties caused by urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters have become a critical and difficult issue that the government is concerned about. As urban storms are sudden, clustered, continuous, and cause huge economic losses, it is difficult to conduct emergency management. Developing a more scientific method for real-time disaster identification will help prevent losses over time. Examining social media big data is a feasible method for obtaining on-site disaster data and carrying out disaster risk assessments. This paper presents a real-time identification method for urban-storm disasters using Weibo data. Taking the June 2016 heavy rainstorm in Nanjing as an example, the obtained Weibo data are divided into eight parts for the training data set and two parts for the testing data set. It then performs text pre-processing using the Jieba segmentation module for word segmentation. Then, the term frequency–inverse document frequency method is used to calculate the feature items weights and extract the features. Hashing algorithms are introduced for processing high-dimensional sparse vector matrices. Finally, the naive Bayes, support vector machine, and random forest text classification algorithms are used to train the model, and a test set sample is introduced for testing the model to select the optimal classification algorithm. The experiments showed that the naive Bayes algorithm had the highest macro-average accuracy.     

事故经济损失评估方法及计算机程序设计

分析了事故的后果和经济损失,详细论述了由于生产活动的中止和人的死亡或劳动能力的丧失而导致的生产活动中劳动力资源损失的计算方法,并应用面向对象的数据库系统Cache′和Delphi开发工具编写了事故经济损失计算程序,以货币形式给出了每个损失点的损失大小并输出可能损失的报告书,为事故管理、安全决策和风险评估提供了科学的依据.     

广西大厂锡矿泥盆纪中基性火山岩的地质特征

近年在广西大厂锡矿泥盆纪地层中发现的中基性火山岩,主要为玄武岩、安山岩类岩石,属钙碱性-碱性系列,形成于大陆裂谷环境.火山岩表现为轻稀土富集型的,轻、重稀土比值高,Eu、Ce表现为中度亏损,重稀土元素分馏程度较高.通过对火山岩的稀土元素做Q性聚类分析得出,矿石和层状火山岩之间关系更为密切,矿石对于层状火山岩有继承性和一...     

缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法及应用

很多城市缺乏洪灾灾情资料,导致缺少洪灾损失量化的有效手段。为满足城市洪涝日益严峻的风险管理需求,亟需缺灾情资料城市的洪灾损失定量评估方法。提出了"因子变异-动态比拟-目标驱动-情景拟合"的缺灾情资料洪灾损失率函数构建方法:借鉴等比例替代思想,采用多引用对象和多特征指标构建变异比拟因子;建立以变差系数最小为目标的动态比拟方法,形成移植样本矩阵;以Beta分布概率最大为驱动目标,确定水深-损失率拟合序列;设置多拟合情景,以拟合相关系数最大为准则,优选洪灾损失率函数。以郑州市为例,模拟4种土地利用类型的洪灾损失率函数,结果表明,本文提出的缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法可行,特征组合指标呈现动态变化性,多种函数组合拟合效果最优。     

The impact of severe natural disasters on the livelihoods of farmers in mountainous areas: a case study of Qingping Township,Mianzhu City

The ‘5.12’ earthquake in 2008 and the ‘8.13’ debris flow in 2010 brought huge losses of life and property to Qingping Township. Farmers’ livelihoods assets were also seriously affected and damaged. These led to a change in farmers’ livelihood styles and reduction in their income. A study of the impact of natural disasters on farmers’ livelihoods in mountainous areas would have significant importance for policy making. Based on field survey data from sample households, this study comparatively analyzed the assets, livelihood styles and income of farmers over three periods—2007, 2009 after the ‘5.12’ earthquake, and 2 months after ‘8.13’ debris flows. It presents the following findings: (1) livelihood assets suffered heavy losses; (2) livelihood styles were significantly changed; and (3) the sustainability of farmer income was adversely influenced. These results suggest that, during the process of post-disaster reconstruction work, affected farmers’ security, the carrying capacity of livelihood assets, and the enhancement of employment and livelihood choice are worthy of much attention from policy makers.     

In situ triaxial creep test for investigating deformational properties of gravelly sliding zone soil: example of the Huangtupo 1# landslide,China

In recent years, numerous landslide catastrophes have occurred, generating considerable financial losses and other tolls. The deformational and mechanical properties of sliding zone soil would be in primary significance to landslide research, as the sliding zone basically controls the initiation and mobility of the landslide. An in situ triaxial test was carried out on a sample from the sliding zone of the Huangtupo 1# landslide, a subdivision of the Huangtupo landslide in the Three Gorges area of China. The test results indicate that (a) the sliding zone exhibits low compressibility due to the high rock content (54.3%) and long-time consolidation by the overlying soil mass; (b) only decaying creep occurs without abrupt failure, and a constitutive equation with both linear and nonlinear viscoplastic terms is deduced to accurately fit the test data; (c) the surface with an orientation of 35° presents anisotropic traits in terms of displacement, possibly due to cracks that formed at similar orientations within the sample cube; and (d) the creep behavior of the landslide may be closely related to the properties of the sliding zone soil. When a similar stress magnitude to that of the in situ stress environment is applied to the sample, the sliding zone soil behavior matches the landslide deformative behavior. The test results indicate that the Huangtupo 1# landslide will continue to creep, as interpreted from the deformation traits and structural properties of the sample. However, unavoidable limitations of the test and extreme external factors, namely unexpected rainfall and water fluctuation, cannot be ignored.     

Determination of the platinum-group elements and gold in ferromanganese nodule reference material NOD-A-1

The concentrations of Ru, Pd, Ir, Pt, and Au were determined in a ferromanganese nodule reference sample NOD-A-1 by inductively coupled plasma mass-spectrometry. Sample preparation procedures include acid digestion and anion exchange preconcentration. Standard addition method was used to eliminate losses of the analyte during the chromatographic separation. The results are in agreement with previously published data. The low level of intermediate precision for Au between different subsamples of the same sample probably originates from the heterogeneous distribution of Au in ferromanganese nodules. The accumulation of PGE in ferromanganese nodules was studied using international reference samples.     

节水条件下土壤氮素的环境影响效应研究

土壤无机氮素的损失主要是铵氮的挥发损失和硝氮的反硝化和淋失.土壤水分和氮素含量的增加,都将增加氮肥淋失的潜在威胁,如处置不当,获得高产可能需要以环境的污染为代价.节水条件下土壤无机氮素的损失量有所减少,但是氮素利用效率也同时受到了土壤水分状况的限制.探讨了作物产量、氮素损失和农业生产要素(水分、氮素)实际投入量之间的关系,建立了节水条件下土壤氮素损失和环境评价概念型模型,通过在北京水利科学研究所永乐店灌溉试验站3年的试验资料对模型进行了参数求解及校验.     

Mass-balance and mass-transfer in migmatites from the Colorado Front Range

Metasomatic exchanges between the infiltrating fluids and wall rocks most likely initiated the formation of nine leucosomes in two large samples of the Precambrian biotite-quartz-feldspar migmatites from the east-central Colorado Front Range. The leucosomes, 2 to 20 mm thick and enclosed in mafic salvages 1 to 10 mm thick, are granitic to tonalitic in composition. Mass-balance calculations suggest that each leucosome formed by local introduction of mass. The net gains and losses calculated assuming that all such gains and losses were contained within the leucosome show that, in general, neither the gains nor the losses fit the composition of any silicate melt. It is more likely that the components were transported in a fluid. Recalculated on constant Al basis, the most significant relative mass transfers were gain of K and losses of Na and Mg by the rocks. The metasomatic reactions calculated are those for replacement of plagioclase by microcline and breakdown of biotite. The reactions must have been the cause of incipient migmatization. A mafic selvage formed from the paleosome by the loss of material whose composition is tonalitic to granodioritic varying systematically with the paleosome composition.It is proposed that an infiltrating fluid caused metasomatism and partial melting along its path and that the melt, segregated from the mafic residues, combined with the introduced material to form a leucosome. The degree of melting was controlled by the paleosome composition and by the net amount (but not the composition) of the introduced material. The cause of melting of the paleosome was most likely an increased due to the influx of H₂O from the water-rich fluid.The compositional range of the metamorphic solution in equilibrium with these rocks was calculated from available experimental data. The sample calculations show that such fluid could have been responsible for the reactions and mass transfers observed.     

Hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) for disaster risk assessment

Taken into account that the natural hazard risk is a contingent liability and, therefore, a sovereign risk for national governments, it is important to assess properly the potential losses to design a suitable risk reduction, retention and transfer strategy. In this article, a disaster risk assessment methodology is proposed based on two approaches: on the one hand, the empiric estimation of losses, using information available from local disaster databases, allowing estimating losses due to small-scale events and, on the other hand, probabilistic evaluations to estimate losses for greater or even catastrophic events, for which information usually is not available due to the lack of historical data. A “hybrid” loss exceedance curve is thus determined, which combines the results of these two approaches and represents the disaster risk in a proper and complete way. This curve merges two components: the corresponding to small and moderate losses, calculated using an inductive and retrospective analysis, and the corresponding to extreme losses, calculated using a deductive and prospective analysis. Applications of this risk assessment technique are given in this article for eleven countries.     

Exploring the characteristics of major natural disasters in China and their impacts during the past decades

The exploration of the characteristics of natural disasters (NDs) and their impacts have important implications for guiding disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper discussed the characteristics of the major NDs that occurred in mainland China between 1980 and 2011 based on the number of disasters and fatalities, the affected population, and the resulting economic damages. We further examined the relationships between the level of social/economic development and the disaster losses. At last, we also explored the trend variations in disaster losses and losses expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (losses/GDP) for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1990 to 2011. The results show that over the past three decades, the number of major NDs and the number of affected population appear to exhibit a detectable increasing trend, while the direct economic losses and the deaths show a slight increase trend. The correlations between the number of disasters and the economic losses as well as deaths and between the economic losses and socioeconomic status were not significant (p > 0.05), which indicates that the growth in the number of disasters do not result in a significant increase in the disaster losses. Further investigations demonstrate that as economies develop, there are fewer losses/GDP in China over the past two decades. The per capita accumulative losses and losses/GDP in the western and central regions were higher than that in the eastern parts of China. There are significant regional differences in the trends in disaster losses and losses/GDP in China. Statistics also indicate that more than 70 % provinces in underdeveloped regions show an increasing trend in disaster losses, whereas exceeding 90 % provinces exhibit a decreasing trend in their losses/GDP. These results suggest that the economic development may have played an important role in improving the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction.     

The effect of wind speed and bed slope on sand transport

This paper reports on a wind tunnel study of the effects of bed slope and wind speed on aeolian mass transport. The use of a sloping wind tunnel has enabled estimation of the friction angle α to be about 40° for saltating particles in the range 170–540 μm. A formula relating dimensionless mass transport to friction speed and bed slope is proposed, and mass transport data for five uniform sand samples and one non-uniform sand sample are shown to fit the equation well. In particular, the relationship reveals an overshoot in mass transport slightly above threshold collisions, a feature also evident when previous experimental data is re-examined. As the number of mid-air collisions between the saltating particles increases greatly with wind speed, the overshoot may occur as a result of increasing energy losses resulting from the collisions. Finally, it is demonstrated that data for saltating snow shows a similar overshoot in the dimensionless transport rate.     

The Direct Determination of Rare Earth Elements in Basaltic and Related Rocks using ICP-MS: Testing the Efficiency of Microwave Oven Sample Decomposition Procedures

Tests are described showing the results obtained for the determination of REE and the trace elements Rb, Y, Zr, Nb, Cs, Ba, Hf, Ta, Pb, Th and U with ICP-MS methodology for nine basaltic reference materials, and thirteen basalts and amphibolites from the mafic-ultramafic Niquelândia Complex, central Brazil. Sample decomposition for the reference materials was performed by microwave oven digestion (HF and HNO₃, 100 mg of sample), and that for the Niquelândia samples also by Parr bomb treatment (5 days at 200°C, 40 mg of sample). Results for the reference materials were similar to published values, thus showing that the microwave technique can be used with confidence for basaltic rocks. No fluoride precipitates were observed in the microwave-digested solutions. Total recovery of elements, including Zr and Hf, was obtained for the Niquelândia samples, with the exception of an amphibolite. For this latter sample, the Parr method achieved a total digestion, but not so the microwave decomposition; losses, however, were observed only for Zr and Hf, indicating difficulty in dissolving Zr-bearing minerals by microwave acid attack.     

美国20世纪洪水损失分析及中美90年代比较研究

分析了美国20世纪洪水损失的演变情况及洪水损失对国民经济的影响,探讨了美国的洪水响应政策,并对中国和美国20世纪90年代的洪水损失进行比较研究.主要结论如下:①美国20世纪年均洪水损失以1.58%的增长率缓慢上升,20世纪末年均损失约为55.6亿美元;②洪水损失占GDP的比重逐渐下降,由20世纪30年代的0.334%下降到90年代的0.068%;③美国许多重大洪水政策的调整几乎都与特大洪水发生有关,呈由"遏制洪水"、"控制洪水"发展到"洪水管理"的演变历程;④通过比较研究发现,整个90年代是中国和美国洪水频发的时期,中国的年均洪水损失为1343.1亿元,损失占全国GDP的2.386%;而美国年均洪水损失虽然也达到了55.6亿美元,但只占全美GDP的0.068%;洪水对中国国民经济的影响远远大于对美国的影响.     

Risk assessment of earth dam overtopping and its application research

The problem of dam safety is one of the most important research topics of water conservancy projects, and many researchers pay much attention to study the risk of earth dam overtopping. This paper synthesizes in the definition of risk the probabilities of dam failure and the corresponding losses, including the probability estimation, losses evaluation and criteria exploring risk approaches. Then, a comprehensive risk assessment system of dam flood overtopping is established, which is widely applicable. Gate failure, randomness of flood, initial water level and time-varying effects are incorporated in the failure probability model. Many complex factors are simplified in losses estimation. In addition, thresholds of various types of losses are proposed and are adapted to the national conditions. The methodology is applied to the Lianghekou hydropower station in China to illustrate the assessment process of flood overtopping risk and to evaluate its safe loophole with a view to the failure of spillway gates. Monte Carlo simulation and JC method programs are adopted to solve the model based on MATLAB tools and DELPHI. The results show that the losses pose significant impact on the risk assessment and should be considered in the assessment of risk. Probability calculation and loss estimation could be well combined with standards, providing a basis for risk management and decision-making.     

Effects of antecedent soil moisture on losses of rare earth elements and phosphorus in runoff

The effects of antecedent soil moisture on losses of rare earth elements (REEs) and phosphorus (P) in runoff were evaluated through a simulated rainfall experiment at the rate of 83?mm?h^?1. The results revealed that antecedent moisture was a significant factor affecting the amounts of REE and P losses. It was observed that most REEs and P transported with sediments in the runoff. There was a significant correlation between the total amounts of REE losses and those of P losses in the runoff. The optimal antecedent moisture for minimization of losses for REEs ranged from 10.19 to 11.17% and it was 10.91% for P.     

Comparative Risk Assessments for the City of Cologne – Storms, Floods, Earthquakes

In this paper a methodology for a multi-risk assessment of an urban area is introduced and performed for the city of Cologne, Germany, considering the natural hazards windstorm, flooding and earthquake. Moreover, sources of the uncertainty in the analysis and future needs for research are identified. For each peril the following analyses were undertaken: hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and estimation of losses. To compare the three hazard types on a consistent basis, a common economic assessment of exposed assets was developed. This was used to calculate direct economic losses to buildings and their contents. The perils were compared by risk curves showing the exceedence probability of the estimated losses. In Cologne, most of the losses that occur frequently are due to floods and windstorms. For lower return periods (10–200 years) the risk is dominated by floods. For return periods of more than 200 years the highest damage is caused by earthquakes.     

Shifting Economic Impacts from Weather Extremes in the United States: A Result of Societal Changes,Not Global Warming

Loss values from extremes in the U.S. and elsewhere have been more qualitativethan quantitative, but recent pressures for better information have led to newassessments and better estimates of financial losses from extremes. These pressureshave included concerns over potential impacts of more extremes due to global warmingfostered by ever increasing costs to the insurance industry and government from weather extremes; plus a series of massive losses during the past 15 years (drought of 1988–1989,Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Midwestern 1993 floods). These recent assessmentsattempted to adjust data for societal changes over time and thus derived new and betterestimates of losses for seven major extremes than existed previously. Three extremeshave annual average losses in excess of a billion dollars (1998 dollars) includinghurricanes ($4.2 billion), floods ($3.2 billion), and severe local storms ($1.6 billion).One extreme and its adjusted losses exhibit upward trends (floods), but all others showno increases with time or temporal decreases (hail, hurricanes, tornadoes, and severethunderstorms). Annual national losses during 1950–1997 from the three major extremes, plus four others (hail, tornadoes, winter storms, and wind storms), collectively reveal no upward or downward trend over time, with an average annual loss of $10.3 billion. The quality loss values do not indicate an increase as has been postulated for global warming. The good news is that better estimates of impacts now exist, but the bad news is that they are still estimates and do not include sizable unmeasured losses. If accurate data on the economic impacts from weather extremes are seen as important for scientific research and policy-making for global warming, the U.S. needs a continuing program to adequately measure losses from weather extremes.     

Analysis of ventilation shock losses by finite element method

Summary This paper presents an analysis of ventilation shock losses using the two-dimensional finite element method. It outlines the finite element formulation, in which the ventilation air flow is assumed to be a steady-state, viscous, incompressible and fully developed turbulent flow. In addition, the modified version of Van Driest model is assumed for the effective kinematic viscosity.The shock losses were estimated for the case simulating the airway configuration for (a) split, (b) junction and (c) gradual contraction. The results are compared and discussed with the shock loss data available in the ventilation literature. To estimate the shock losses, the flow solution in terms of pressure was first obtained for each airway configuration using the finite element method. The solution was then compared with that of a straight airway for estimating the difference in the head losses.