1996-2011 年南非人口空间分布格局与演变特征

南非是中国在非洲的最大投资目的地与经贸合作伙伴, 特别在基础设施建设方面发展迅速。南非人口空间分布研究对开展中南合作具有重要意义。本文通过收集整理南非历年来的全国人口普查资料统计数据, 运用空间自相关模型、不均衡指数、人口重心模型和偏移—分享模型, 分析了南非人口的空间分布格局和演变特征。研究结果表明, 南非人口分布具有显著的“东高西低”的空间格局, 呈现出以工业化程度较高的大都市区和港口城市为中心的“多核心”集聚的分布特征;空间自相关分析得出人口高集聚区主要分布在大都市区和沿海港口城市, 低密度集聚区主要集中分布在中西部地区;从变化趋势上来看, 1996-2011 年间人口分布不平衡趋势不断加强, 人口重心向西北方向移动;偏移—分享分析表明, 南非人口增长速度先后经历了从1996-2001 年快速增长到2001-2007 年缓慢增长, 再到2007-2011 年高速增长的“高—低—高”增长阶段;省域层面上看, 豪登省和西开普省一直是南非人口集聚较强地区。     

The concentration of urban crime in space by race: evidence from South Africa

Crime inequality in neighborhoods by race is blamed on social inequalities borne out of segregation and economic discrimination. South Africa is a country synonymous with racial-spatial segregation and discrimination as a result of legislatively enforced policies of the former apartheid government. This study examines whether urban crime inequalities by race exist in the city of Tshwane, South Africa and identifies the empirical causes of these crime inequalities. Violent and sexual crime was found to concentrate in Black African neighborhoods, while property crime was concentrated in neighborhoods classified as “Mixed”. The causes of crime in neighborhoods were found to vary across racial groups with results suggesting non-uniformity in the extent to which the various constructs impact crime based on race. The results challenge the notion that segregation and economic discrimination uniformly impacts affected communities. Explanations for the findings are provided in the context of an increasingly eclectic post-apartheid South African city.     

The quality and qualities of population statistics, and the place of the census

Population counts are a key anchor for much of the official statistical system and the benchmark for many commercial and research surveys and analysis. Statistical offices around the world face a wide range of challenges in counting their population, most particularly in the years between censuses, as population flows become much freer and family structures continue to evolve. This paper considers these issues, reviewing how population counts have evolved over time in the UK and other countries. The paper also looks to the future, considering ways in which population count methodology might develop.     

Resilient geographies: land, boundaries and the consolidation of the former bantustans in post-1994 South Africa

This paper focuses on the spatial impact of land reform and the redrawing of internal boundaries on South Africa's former bantustans. It argues that, in contrast to the democratic government's intention to use land reform and boundary demarcation to effectively change the spatial legacy of apartheid, these processes tend to cement the geography of the former bantustans. Though earlier research correctly projected that post-apartheid policies could result in the enlargement of the areas of the former bantustans, the ways in which this could happen were still unclear. This paper draws on experiences of land reform and boundary demarcation to demonstrate how and why the areas of the former bantustans have been enlarged over the 12 years of democracy in South Africa.     

The shifting sand of geography in South Africa

South African geography, like other subjects, has to undergo the arduous process of curriculum change in order to meet the demands of the new education system and to contribute to a broader agenda of national reconstruction. Changes within geography can shed light on the impact and implications of the new national curriculum on teaching subjects. The paper suggests that the introduction of environmental education into Curriculum 2005 offers geography educators the opportunity and the challenge to advance geographic knowledge.     

Developing KaNgwane: geographies of segregation and integration in the new South Africa

This paper examines social, political and economic processes within the former KaNgwane bantustan to understand the changing relationships between society and space in the post-apartheid era. Research on rural development and reconstruction in South Africa attest to the spatial legacy of apartheid while suggesting that dynamic transformations are occurring within the former bantustans. A central concern of this paper is the ways the apartheid government constructed and presented KaNgwane as a development project in order to justify racial segregation and control. While the bantustans have been effectively erased from the popular imagination, these spaces continue to be framed developmentally in ways that provide limited attention to local context and change. In order to consider the shifts in environment and development discourses within these territories, a case study is employed to evaluate livelihood production systems, environmental change, and governance institutions. It is argued that these patterns reveal the simultaneously static and dynamic nature of the bantustans while demonstrating that their reincorporation will remain an ongoing process in the post-apartheid era.     

Cooperation at different scales: challenges for local and international water resource governance in South Africa

Theory on environmental governance and water governance emphasises decentralised, devolved forms of interaction between stakeholders. As previously excluded actors are empowered to take part in governance, new forms of cooperation are created. This paper examines how the cooperative principle has influenced stakeholder interaction at the local and international scales of water governance in South Africa. Water policies and initiatives have been set up to promote multi-level governance that emphasises cooperation between various stakeholders. The emphasis on cooperation and inclusiveness is particularly pertinent to the South African context because of its apartheid past. The paper asks whether there have been new forms of cooperation between a wider array of actors, as the theory proposes. By using the case studies of the Sabie catchment and the Lesotho Highlands Water Project to examine local and international level governance, the paper finds challenges related to power disparity and interdependence of actors, and risk perceptions of inclusive decision-making. It is found that at both the local and international level, the state, which is a 'traditional' actor, still plays an influential role in decision-making. 'New' actors such as businesses, civil society, and regional institutions are more visible but have limited decision-making power. Non-linear, time-consuming forms of cooperation occur in water governance.     

Thermochronometry and palaeomagnetism of the Archaean Nelshoogte Pluton, South Africa

²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb single-grain zircon, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar single-grain hornblende and biotite, and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar bulk-sample muscovite and biotite ages from the Nelshoogte trondhjemite pluton located in eastern Transvaal, South Africa, show that this granitoid had a protracted thermal history spanning 3213±4  Ma to about 3000  Ma. Whole-rock ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages from cross-cutting dolerite dykes indicate that these were intruded at about 1900  Ma. There is no evidence of this or other, later events significantly affecting the argon systematics of the minerals from the pluton dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method.
  The pluton has a well-defined palaeomagnetic pole which is dated at 3179±18 (2 σ ) Ma by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of hornblende. This pole (18°N, 310°E, A ₉₅=9°) yields a palaeolatitude of 0°, significantly different from other Archaean poles from the Kaapvaal Craton. The palaeolatitude difference implies that there was significant apparent polar wander during the Archaean. A second, overprinting magnetization seen in the pluton is also seen in the lower-Proterozoic dolerite dykes, and is consistent with other lower-Proterozoic (2150–1950  Ma) poles for southern Africa.     

南非交通基础设施建设的潜力与方向评估

交通基础设施作为经济发展的“先行官”,对国民经济发展具有巨大推动作用。参与南非重大基础设施建设,对加强中国与南非战略合作、推动中国企业走入南非投资兴业具有重要意义。2010年,南非《全国运输总体规划(2005-2050)》（即 NATMAP 2050）正式出台,对南非铁路、公路、航空、港口、管道等基础设施进行了详实的安排,总投资额高达7500亿兰特。本文通过深入解读该规划,识别出南非铁路、港口等交通基础设施领域的投资重点和重大项目。在此基础上,结合南非城镇体系分布、矿产资源开发、国际贸易发展等方面的现状特征分析,系统评价了南非高铁客运通道、大宗货运通道、港口体系的投资潜力和方向,筛选出投资潜力较大的关键项目,以期为我国更好地参与南非经济发展进程提供决策支持,同时也为我国企业到南非投资创业提供参考。     

The diversity of diversity: a critique of geodemographic classification

We report on an examination of two geodemographic classification systems based on an analysis of 1991 census variables, for districts, wards and census enumeration districts in England and Wales. We also review the associations among the variables examined, the extent to which certain underlying components might account for the overall variation and the types of areas that are least typical. The results show that small areas are different in many different ways; a few dimensions cannot provide enough information to describe an area fully. Diversity on most scales remains even after geodemographicclassification, emphasizing the advantages of task-specific classification.     

Land degradation and climate change in South Africa

This paper considers the potential impact of future climate change on the nature and extent of land degradation in South Africa. The basis of the assessment is the comprehensive review published by the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEA&T) as a contribution to the South African effort in respect of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. The DEA&T report is founded on information collated from 34 workshops, one in each of the agricultural regions of South Africa, involving some 453 participants consisting mainly of agricultural extension officers and soil conservation technicians. This analysis reveals that land degradation is underpinned by poverty and its structural roots in colonial and apartheid political planning. Nevertheless, future climate change represents a key challenge to the developing economies of countries like South Africa. Regionally downscaled models predicting the nature and degree of rainfall changes in the future are used to assess the possible impact of future change on the South African land degradation situation. It is concluded that the most severely degraded areas of the country, including large areas of the former 'homeland' states, are likely to become even more susceptible under predicted climate change scenarios.     

基于六普数据的中国流动人口住房状况的空间格局

住房是流动人口融入城市、实现市民化过程中必须解决的关键问题。基于2010 年第六次人口普查数据,采用住房拥有率、租住房率、住房面积指数、住房不受干扰指数、住房质量指数和住房费用指数6 个指标考察流动人口的住房状况,并综合运用数理统计、空间自相关和系统聚类法揭示流动人口住房状况的属性特征、空间分布与集聚类型。研究发现,与城镇常住人口相比,流动人口的住房状况较差。从空间分布看,流动人口住房状况的各项指标具有显著的空间正相关,在空间分布上不仅存在集聚现象,而且有明显的集聚中心。研究结果还表明,流动人口住房条件综合状况可划分为较好、中等、中等偏下、较差4 级类型区,在全国尺度上的空间分布除个别类型外具有团块聚合的结构特征。在考虑社会公平的前提下,应分类解决不同类型区域流动人口的住房问题。     

Spaces of change: tribal authorities in the former KaNgwane homeland, South Africa

South Africa's democratic transition has had a significant impact upon localized governance systems in mediating development opportunities within the former apartheid homelands. This paper uses a case study from the former KaNgwane homeland to evaluate the role of the Matsamo Tribal Authority in shaping livelihoods and access to environmental resources. It is argued that although the colonial and apartheid empowerment of the tribal authorities continues to have symbolic and material meaning for rural populations, newly created democratic structures are challenging traditional governance systems in the post-apartheid era. The intersection between these contrasting, and historically situated, systems suggests a dynamic renegotiation is occurring that will continue to impact rural households within the former places of apartheid.     

The Potential for Mixed Methods: Results from the Field in Urban South Africa

With the “cultural turn” in geography, scholars have become more focused on the politics of representation, politics of fieldwork, and politics of the research setting. In human geography, this epistemological shift has been accompanied by a methodological move toward intensive methods at the expense of extensive methods. In this article, I suggest that mixed methods that utilize the strengths of both intensive and extensive methods can offset the weaknesses of each method. Moreover, results from the field suggest that the combination of intensive and extensive methods could produce unique insights only possible from a mixed method approach.     

1996-2015年非洲人口扩张区域类型划分与区域演变分析

采用总人口和劳动力等直接指标单独测度,结合出生率、死亡率、少年系数和老年系数等指标进行综合测度,分析1996—2015年非洲51个国家（地区）人口扩张区的数量变化、空间分布及演化特征,并对比了不同测度指标和方法之间的差异。发现：①总人口扩张区的比重虽高,但扩张程度有所放缓,地域分布整体呈现“南北弱、中部强”的特征,其在东非地区缩减明显;②劳动力扩张区较总人口扩张区扩张程度更为明显,两者在北非和南非部分地区差异较大,其地域分布整体呈现“北退南进”的变化过程;③“劳动力增长率大于总人口增长率”地区比重高于“总人口增长率大于劳动力增长率”,且差距有不断拉大的趋势,前者以北非地区西北部、西非地区几内亚湾沿岸较为集中,后者主要集中分布在中非、东非与西非部分地区;④基于综合指标结果显示,重度扩张型占有较高的比重,中度扩张型增速较快,轻度扩张型占比呈波动下降;⑤综合指标与单一指标结果有一定的趋同性,但区别也比较明显,综合指标在综合性、前瞻性方面有一定优势。     

南非负责任旅游的兴起及其意义

南非负责任旅游对南非的社会经济发展、政治民主建设起着非常重要的作用,特别是推动了南非构建公平社会的进程。本文概括了南非负责任旅游的兴起背景,分析了南非政府实施负责任旅游后初见成效的原因,剖析南非负责任旅游在缓解种族歧视、减少贫困、公平分配利益等方面对建设公平社会的意义。     

The Knysna Basin, South Africa: geomorphology, landscape sensitivity and sustainability

The Knysna Basin, a southern Cape catchment, drains into the Knysna estuary. The landscape characteristics are the product of a long geomorphic evolution resulting in high sensitivity to change. Consideration of the geomorphology is followed by examples of impacts on the estuary and adjacent areas. The need for sustainability in the context of development is argued. The paper is a southern African contribution to the landscape sensitivity issue.     

Tourism as a local development strategy in South Africa

The promotion of tourism has been identified as a key strategy that can lead to economic upliftment, community development and poverty relief in the developing world. In the last few years, tourism has also emerged as a significant development option in post–apartheid South Africa. In the context of some current debates on tourism in poor countries, the paper examines how economic, social and environmental resources are being utilized to promote tourism as a local economic development strategy in South Africa, and more specifically it focuses on current local government endeavours in this regard and two communities that have suffered the loss of their economic resource base. Tourism–based development initiatives, one in KwaZulu–Natal and one in the Western Cape, are evaluated in the context of generating economic growth, alleviating poverty and addressing the apartheid legacy of discrimination and inequality. The significance of the dynamics of development processes involved in these initiatives has much wider relevance for local economic development, both within South Africa and elsewhere.     

The turnaround in Australia: some first observations from the 1991 census

"The aim of this paper is to utilise recently released census results to examine patterns of population change in non-metropolitan Australia during the 1986-91 period, focusing particularly upon the net migration component of that change. The paper presents an overview of recent trends in population change in non-metropolitan areas and then moves to an analysis of net migration patterns in non-metropolitan local government areas during the late 1980s using a Life Table Survival Ratio technique to estimate net migration. It appears that the trends observed in the early 1980s have continued into the late 1980s and early 1990s, and that overall the 'turnaround' is slowing down and becoming more diversified, more complex, and much less predictable in the 1990s."     

Small-scale, nature-based tourism as a pro-poor development intervention: Two examples in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa

Tourism is widely acknowledged as a key economic sector that has the potential to contribute to national and local development and, more specifically, serve as a mechanism to promote poverty alleviation and pro-poor development within a particular locality. In countries of the global South, nature-based tourism initiatives can make a meaningful impact on the livelihoods of the poor, in particular the subsistence based rural poor. Taking two examples in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, where small-scale tourism initiatives were developed recently in response to existing natural attractions in the context of coping with local economic crises, this paper broadly assesses the modest benefits to date, as well as drawbacks, in improving conditions of life.