On seismic classification using non-stationary models and a definition of complexity

A non-stationary stochastic model is proposed for seismic records of P-waves from underground nuclear explosions and natural earthquakes. When estimating the parameters of interest an asymptotically “efficient” procedure is described and its statistical properties are derived. Numerical results are also provided in support of the model.By considering the relevant parameters in the model, two discriminating procedures are described and one is illustrated numerically using available records. Based on these parameters, “complexity” is defined and its relation to the best linear discriminant function is pointed out.     

基于信号包络线相似性的特定场地地下爆炸识别方法研究

基于信号包络线相似性, 本文提出了特定场地地下爆炸的识别方法, 并将其用于一个特定场地地震事件分析, 以评估该方法对特定场地爆炸事件的识别效果. 结果表明, 在误警率约为6.3%的情况下, 事件间距小于15 km的爆炸事件漏检率约为0.5%, 事件间距在15—30 km范围内的爆炸事件漏检率约为5.0%. 与波形互相关方法相比, 本文方法大幅扩大了有效识别特定场地爆炸事件的空间范围.      

基于SOA的蒸发岩盆地岩性判别系统

蒸发岩盆地岩性判别系统是用来对测井数据进行处理得出地下有利于成盐地层岩性的解释性系统,由于岩性判别使用的岩性数据库、测井数据库、专家知识库等分布在全国各地,数据结构和维护系统均不相同,难以实现实时的岩性判别.本文建立了蒸发岩盆地岩性判别模型,提出了基于面向服务体系结构的数据存储、数据处理、应用服务、业务流程、客户应用等五层岩性判别系统框架,通过地学Web服务组件将多种分布式的地学数据融合起来协同工作.以羊塔5井测井数据作为基础,验证系统实现了分布式岩性判别的任务,并给出了判别结果,为以后地学领域构建多源、异构的分布式地学数据集成和服务共享提供了一种新型的实现模式.     

Genetic algorithms for the classification and prediction of precipitation occurrence

Abstract

Using an approach similar to the biological processes of natural selection and evolution, the genetic algorithm (GA) is a nonconventional optimum search technique. Genetic algorithms have the ability to search large and complex decision spaces and handle nonconvexities. In this paper, the GA is applied for solving the optimum classification of rainy and non-rainy day occurrences based on vertical velocity, dewpoint depression, temperature and humidity data. The problem involves finding optimum classification based on known data, training the future prediction system and then making reliable predictions for rainfall occurrences which have significance in agricultural, transportation, water resources and tourism activities. Various statistical approaches require restrictive assumptions such as stationarity, homogeneity and normal probability distribution of the hydrological variables concerned. The GAs do not require any of these assumptions in their applications. The GA approach for the occurrence classifications and predictions is presented in steps and then the application of the methodology is shown for precipitation occurrence (non-occurrence) data. It has been shown that GAs give better results than classical approaches such as discriminant analysis. The application of the methodology is presented independently for the precipitation event occurrences and forecasting at the Lake Van station in eastern Turkey. Finally, the amounts of precipitation are predicted with a model similar to a third order Markov model whose parameters are estimated by the GA technique.     

AN EVALUATION METHOD FOR GEOMAGNETIC DEEP SOUNDING,ITS DERIVATION AND PRACTICAL USE*

The derivation and application of a new method of geomagnetic deep sounding, that is exploring for underground electrical conductivity anomalies by means of temporal variations of the earth's magnetic field, is presented. The problem is restricted to two dimensions (horizontal and vertical) and for the case of a nearly homogeneous horizontal component of the disturbance vector as compared with the vertical over the area in question. The basis of the method is a relationship between both components of the disturbance vector. The first step is a period analysis of the records and from this the construction of so called “characteristic functions”, one for each station, these functions being determined by the conductivity distribution of the earth's interior. The second step consists of a model interpretation of these functions. The method is applied to simultaneous records from five stations (U. Schmucker, 1959) within the region of the conductivity-anomaly of Northern Germany. A preliminary model of this anomaly is given.     

不同阻尼比反应谱的转换关系

不同阻尼比的反应谱的转换关系在我国各类抗震设计规范中有重要应用。以大崎顺彦的转换关系为数学模型,以包含可靠长周期信息的260条基岩记录为基础,进行统计分析,得到新的0.04—10 s的不同阻尼比反应谱的转换关系。新转换关系弥补了4—10 s的长周期部分,并首次考虑了距离对强震持时的影响,可以应用于阻尼比连续变化的反应谱的转换。先对0.04—4 s内的数据回归出结果,与大崎顺彦的结果作对比。然后,再对0.04—10 s内的数据回归出结果,再与大崎顺彦的结果作对比。与大崎顺彦的结果虽有差异,但随阻尼比、震级的增大而基本趋于一致。新的转换关系将为《核电厂抗震设计规范》、《建筑抗震设计规范》、《电力设施抗震设计规范》等相关规范的制订和修改提供参考。     

ATTENUATION DES MULTIPLES EN SISMIQUE MARINE PAR ANTIMOYENNE*

A satisfactory attenuation of the multiples in marine seismic may be obtained by the application of the principle of “Antiaveraging”. This principle in a first step consists in getting the model of the organized noise, which one tries to eliminate by using an averaging method, and in a second step to subtract that model from the initial information. Obviously the elimination of the model should not simultaneously cause the elimination of useful signals. The model may be obtained if the considered organized noise keeps a constant shape or if its time-space deformation is known. Besides one has to assume the time-distance curve of the organized noise can be determined. Thus noise arrivals may be detected on the records. The “antiaveraging” is very often efficient when organized noises are stronger than signals or when a signal, once identified, exploited and then considered as an organized noise, can be attenuated in order to make the detection of the other signals easier.     

Multivariate discrimination technique based on the Bayesian theory

A multivariate discrimination technique was established based on the Bayesian theory. Using this technique, P/S ratios of different types (e.g., Pn/Sn, Pn/Lg, Pg/Sn or Pg/Lg) measured within different frequency bands and from different stations were combined together to discriminate seismic events in Central Asia. Major advantages of the Bayesian approach are that the probability to be an explosion for any unknown event can be directly calculated given the measurements of a group of discriminants, and at the same time correlations among these discriminants can be fully taken into account. It was proved theoretically that the Bayesian technique would be optimal and its discriminating performance would be better than that of any individual discriminant as well as better than that yielded by the linear combination approach ignoring correlations among discriminants. This conclusion was also validated in this paper by applying the Bayesian approach to the above-mentioned observed data.     

基于贝叶斯原理的爆炸识别判据综合技术研究

基于贝叶斯原理,建立了地震事件识别判据的综合方法（简称贝叶斯方法）, 并针对中亚地区大量地震事件,采用该方法综合了不同台站和不同频带的P/S震相幅值比判据. 该方法的主要优点是能够给出事件属于爆炸的概率,而且充分考虑了判据之间的相关性. 理论计算和模拟数据分析结果表明, 贝叶斯方法是最优的综合方法, 其识别效果比任何单个判据好,也好于普通线性组合方法的识别效果. 针对中亚地区大量地震事件综合不同台站和不同频带的P/S震相幅值比判据的结果也表明,贝叶斯方法的误识率低于单个判据和线性组合方法的误识率.     

A nonparametric characterization of vertical ground motion effects

Design guidelines have traditionally oversimplified the vertical ground motion effects by defining a constant vertical‐to‐horizontal response spectral ratio (V/H). With the recognition that such practice is not always conservative, recent studies have proposed improvements to the representation of vertical seismic effects in design codes, based on empirical ground motion relations. Conventional empirical modeling requires selecting the functional form of the predictive model. Because of the complicated nature of ground motions, identification of the underlying function is a challenge. A related drawback to this approach is its high susceptibility to overfitting, especially with today's highly complex models. To address these issues, this paper proposes a nonparametric approach to characterize the vertical seismic effects. Using support vector machines, the V/H ratio is determined without an assumed functional form. The accuracy of the model is measured by adopting an epsilon‐insensitive residual function with a regularization term added to prevent overfitting. An example application using ground motion records from strike‐slip and normal faulting earthquakes is presented, and the results are compared with a current empirical model, for different magnitude, distance, and local soil conditions. The median V/H estimates from the two models are shown to be in good general agreement. The standard deviation estimates from the proposed model are consistently larger than the estimates from the empirical model. The results from this study show that the proposed method is a viable alternative and offers the opportunity to characterize vertical seismic effects without an assumed functional form. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new soil freeze/thaw discriminant algorithm using AMSR‐E passive microwave imagery

The soil freeze–thaw controls the hydrological and carbon cycling and thus affects water and energy exchanges at land surface. This article reported a newly developed algorithm for distinguishing the freeze/thaw status of surface soil. The algorithm was based on information from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Enhanced (AMSR‐E) which records brightness temperature (Tb) in the afternoon and after midnight. The criteria and discriminant functions were obtained from both radiometer observations and model simulations. First of all, the microwave radiation from freeze–thaw soil was examined by carrying out experimental measurements at 18·7 and 36·5 GHz using a Truck‐mounted Multi‐frequency Microwave Radiometer (TMMR) in the Heihe River of China. The experimental results showed that the soil moisture is a key component that differentiates the microwave radiation behaviours during the freeze–thaw process, and the differences in soil temperature and emissivity between frozen and thawed soils were found to be the most important criteria. Secondly, a combined model was developed to consider the impacts of complex ground surface conditions on the discrimination. The model simulations quite followed the trend of in situ observations with an overall relation coefficient (R) of approximately 0·88. Finally, the ratio of Tb18·7H (horizontally polarized Tb at 18·7 GHz) to Tb36·5V was considered primarily as the quasi‐emissivity, which is more reasonable and explicit in measuring the microwave radiation changes in soil freezing and thawing than the spectral gradient. By combining Tb36·5V to indicate the soil temperature variety, a Fisher linear discrimination analysis was used to establish the discriminant functions. After being corrected by TMMR measurements, the new discriminant algorithm had an overall accuracy of 86% when validated by 4‐cm soil temperature. The multi‐year discriminant results also provided a good agreement with the classification map of frozen ground in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial analysis of the invasion of lionfish in the western Atlantic and Caribbean

Pterois volitans and Pterois miles, two sub-species of lionfish, have become the first non-native, invasive marine fish established along the United States Atlantic coast and Caribbean. The route and timing of the invasion is poorly understood, however historical sightings and captures have been robustly documented since their introduction. Herein we analyze these records based on spatial location, dates of arrival, and prevailing physical factors at the capture sights. Using a cellular automata model, we examine the relationship between depth, salinity, temperature, and current, finding the latter as the most influential parameter for transport of lionfish to new areas. The model output is a synthetic validated reproduction of the lionfish invasion, upon which predictive simulations in other locations can be based. This predictive model is simple, highly adaptable, relies entirely on publicly available data, and is applicable to other species.     

Identification Criteria for Sources of T Waves Recorded in French Polynesia

—?From a data set of 150 digital records of T phases from 71 sources obtained on seismometers of the Polynesian Seismic Network, we define a discriminant separating earthquake and explosion sources, which uses the maximum amplitude of recorded ground velocity, measured on its envelope, e _Max (in μm/s), and the duration of the phase measured at 1/3 of maximum amplitude, τ_1/3 (in seconds). Earthquake sources and man-made explosions are effectively separated in a log-log space by the straight line ¶¶log₁₀ e _Max = 4.9 log₁₀τ_1/3 - 4.1 .¶¶Other criteria in both the time and frequency domains fail to reliably separate the populations of the various kinds of events. The application of this technique to analog records of large-scale man-made explosions carried out in the 1960s confirms that it provides an adequate discriminant over 3.5 orders of magnitude of ground velocity.     

Evaluation of the influence of vertical irregularities on the seismic performance of a nine‐storey steel frame

A methodology based on incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is presented for the evaluation of structures with vertical irregularities. Four types of storey‐irregularities are considered: stiffness, strength, combined stiffness and strength, and mass irregularities. Using the well‐known nine‐storey LA9 steel frame as a base, the objective is to quantify the effect of irregularities, both for individual and for combinations of stories, on its response. In this context a rational methodology for comparing the seismic performance of different structural configurations is proposed by means of IDA. This entails performing non‐linear time history analyses for a suite of ground motion records scaled to several intensity levels and suitably interpolating the results to calculate capacities for a number of limit‐states, from elasticity to final global instability. By expressing all limit‐state capacities with a common intensity measure, the reference and each modified structure can be naturally compared without needing to have the same period or yield base shear. Using the bootstrap method to construct appropriate confidence intervals, it becomes possible to isolate the effect of irregularities from the record‐to‐record variability. Thus, the proposed methodology enables a full‐range performance evaluation using a highly accurate analysis method that pinpoints the effect of any source of irregularity for each limit‐state. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo ground‐motion selection algorithms for conditional intensity measure targets

Two new algorithms are presented for efficiently selecting suites of ground motions that match a target multivariate distribution or conditional intensity measure target. The first algorithm is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach in which records are sequentially added to a selected set such that the joint probability density function (PDF) of the target distribution is progressively approximated by the discrete distribution of the selected records. The second algorithm derives from the concept of the acceptance ratio within MCMC but does not involve any sampling. The first method takes advantage of MCMC's ability to efficiently explore a sampling distribution through the implementation of a traditional MCMC algorithm. This method is shown to enable very good matches to multivariate targets to be obtained when the numbers of records to be selected is relatively large. A weaker performance for fewer records can be circumvented by the second method that uses greedy optimisation to impose additional constraints upon properties of the target distribution. A preselection approach based upon values of the multivariate PDF is proposed that enables near‐optimal record sets to be identified with a very close match to the target. Both methods are applied for a number response analyses associated with different sizes of record sets and rupture scenarios. Comparisons are made throughout with the Generalised Conditional Intensity Measure (GCIM) approach. The first method provides similar results to GCIM but with slightly worse performance for small record sets, while the second method outperforms method 1 and GCIM for all considered cases.     

A comparative fuzzy logic approach to runoff coefficient and runoff estimation

In practice, rainfall–runoff relationships are achieved through a simply defined runoff coefficient concept that is widely used in many engineering hydrological designs in urban and rural areas. The simplicity of the method, with the sole requirement of runoff coefficient assessment, is the main attractiveness, in addition to its successful prediction of average runoff rates for a given rainfall record. Unfortunately, in the classical regression approach of the rainfall–runoff relationship, internal variabilities are not taken into consideration explicitly. The runoff coefficient is considered a constant value, and it is used without distinction of antecedent conditions for the calculation of runoff from the rainfall record. In this paper, various other uncertainty embedded versions of the runoff coefficient, and hence rainfall–runoff formulation, are presented in terms of statistics, probability, perturbation and, finally, fuzzy system modelling. It is concluded that the fuzzy logic approach yields the least relative error among the various alternative runoff calculation methods; therefore, it is recommended for use in future studies. The application of various alternatives is presented for two monthly rainfall‐runoff records around Istanbul, Turkey. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A web‐based methodology for the prediction of approximate IDA curves

A web‐based methodology for the prediction of approximate IDA curves, which consists of two independent processes, is proposed. The result of the first process is a response database of the SDOF model, whereas the second process involves the prediction of approximate IDA curves from the response database by using n‐dimensional linear interpolation. Such an approach enables user‐friendly prediction of the seismic response parameters with high accuracy. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology, a web application for the prediction of the approximate 16th, 50th and 84th fractile responses of an RC structure was developed. For the presented case study, the response database was computed for a set of 30 ground motion records and the discrete values of six structural parameters. Very good agreement between the computed and the approximated IDA curves of the four‐storey RC building was observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

区域震相初至估计

本在地震数据自动化处理中，给出一种基于自回归模型的Akaike information criteria(AIC)算法和信号平均幅值比的混合方法来估计地震信号的初至．用信号的AIC曲线和平均幅值比曲线构造一种叠加曲线，再进行类似于坐标旋转的校正，可以准确估计低信噪比记录中信号的初至，尤其对于震相类型比较复杂的后续震相(如S波、Lg波)的初至估计结果很好．通过对中国数字地震台网乌鲁木齐台记录到的23次天然地震中P波、S波和Lg波的初至估计，与人工分析结果相比，P波初至估计的均方误差为0．71s，后续震相(S波、Lg波)的均方误差为1．64s，优于传统AIC算法的估计结果．     

黄土高原大理河流域水沙耦合模型应用研究

水沙模型是定量描述水沙关系及水沙规律的重要工具,现阶段国内外对于水沙模型的研究大都为基于某个典型流域的经验统计模型或基于流域大量基础资料的物理模型,极大限制了其使用范围及模拟精度.本文建立了结构与参数均具有物理意义的流域水沙耦合物理概念模型,其优点是物理概念清楚,模拟精度高,实用性强,易于深入研究泥沙基本规律.该模型将概念性水文模型和泥沙模型耦合,提出水流挟沙能力和土壤抗侵蚀能力概念,用对数曲线近似描述流域土壤抗侵蚀能力的空间变异性,在拜格诺河道水流悬移质泥沙公式基础上建立概念性沟蚀产沙公式,参照水流汇集相似性建立泥沙汇集演算公式.选取黄河中游大理河流域4个不同流域尺度的实际流域对模型进行应用检验,模拟结果表明,该模型的水流泥沙两部分均有很高的模拟精度,可以很好地模拟黄河中游地区不同流域尺度和年际尺度上的洪水过程和泥沙产生及输移过程,充分证明了该模型结构、参数和计算方法的合理性,可用于定量分析流域内各项水保措施的减水减沙效益及水沙关系变化趋势,对该模型的推广应用可做进一步分析研究.     

Computational issues and applications of line-elements to model subsurface flow governed by the modified Helmholtz equation

Two new approaches are presented for the accurate computation of the potential due to line elements that satisfy the modified Helmholtz equation with complex parameters. The first approach is based on fundamental solutions in elliptical coordinates and results in products of Mathieu functions. The second approach is based on the integration of modified Bessel functions. Both approaches allow evaluation of the potential at any distance from the element. The computational approaches are applied to model transient flow with the Laplace transform analytic element method. The Laplace domain solution is computed using a combination of point elements and the presented line elements. The time domain solution is obtained through a numerical inversion. Two applications are presented to transient flow fields, which could not be modeled with the Laplace transform analytic element method prior to this work. The first application concerns transient single-aquifer flow to wells near impermeable walls modeled with line-doublets. The second application concerns transient two-aquifer flow to a well near a stream modeled with line-sinks.