A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China

During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory.     

华北地区地震造成人员死亡的概率预测研究初探

在1800年至1989年间,华北地区(34.0°—42.0°N;117.5°—125.0°E)由于地震造成人员死亡程度(E)(E—logD,D为死亡人数)及其频度(N)满足指数关系N=37.71e~(-0.72E)。应用Gumbel极值理论估计该区在1988—1998年和1999—2009年间,地震造成人员死亡人数等于和大于1000人的概率分别是0.37和0.50。     

GIS-based risk analysis of debris flow： an application in Sichuan, southwest China

Debris flow is a serious geologic hazard in China. It is estimated that nationally debris flows cause up to 2 billion RMB （250 million US$） in damages and 300-600 deaths and injuries annually. To mitigate debris flow hazards, it is necessary to map, model, and identify zones of debris flow hazards and vulnerability as to inform the local people about the potential risk with a geographic information system. This research presents a regional scale case study modeling debris flow risk （hazard and vulnerability） in Sichuan Province, Southwestern China. In this area, 3,290 debris flows have been identified and the spatial-temporal distribution and activity characteristics of them have been documented. Based on the available meteorological data, a Digital Elevation Model with the rate of 1：250,000 and a regional geological map, the 24-hr rainfall threshold （y） for debris flow occurrence is closely related （significant at 99% confidence level） to the index （x） defined using a geology factor （rock hardness： a） and a topographical factor （channel gradient： d） where y = 21 ＋ 10200 / x, in which x = 2.7 × e^a ＋ 1000 × d. The discipline is constructive in developing the rainfall threshold for debris flow activity in remote mountainous areas that lack data. For a given watershed, a four-level debris flow hazard map is developed by comparing the rainfall threshold to the design rainfall intensities with 50-, 20-, and 5-year average recurrence intervals, respectively. The degree of debris flow vulnerability is determined by the watershed socio-economic conditions. A four-class debris flow risk map, at the final phase of the research, is generated by combining debris flow hazards and vulnerability. With the debris flow risk assessment, the Sichuan Province is classified into the slight, moderate, severe and very severe regions, which accounts for 36%, 19%, 20% and 25% of total area respectively.     

20世纪的十大灾难性地震(待续)

叙述了 2 0世纪全球 10次灾难性地震发生的时间、震级、地点、伤亡人数、建筑物遭破坏以及救灾的情况 ,记述了一些地震的前兆现象和经济损失。     

20世纪十大灾难性地震(续完)

叙述了２０世纪全球１０次灾难性地震发生的时间、震级、地点、伤亡人数、建筑物遭破坏以及救灾的情况,记述了一些地震的前兆现象和经济损失。     

Maximum Earthquakes in Future Time Intervals

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The paper addresses the problems associated with the maximum earthquakes in a seismically active region. Pisarenko and Rodkin (2009; 2010;...     

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.     

山西忻州市地震灾害损失预测

介绍了忻州市历史地震震害，给出了忻州市城区的房屋建筑，生命线工程震害预测结果，次生灾害分析预测结果，地震造成的经济损失和人员伤亡的预测方法和结果。     

Estimation of Maximum Earthquakes in Northeast India

We attempt to estimate possible maximum earthquakes in the northeast Indian region for four seismic source zones, namely EHZ, MBZ, EBZ, and SHZ, which encapsulates the various seismogenic structures of the region and also for combined source zones taken as a single seismic source regime. The latter case exhibits a high maximum earthquake estimate of M_W 9.4 (±0.85) through Bayesian interpretation of frequency magnitude distribution with Gamma function implicating a moderate deviation from the standard Gutenberg Richter model at the higher magnitudes. However, tapering Gutenberg Richter models with corner magnitudes at M_W 8.01, 8.7 and 9.1, respectively indicated maximum values corresponding to M_W 8.4, 9.0, and 9.3. The former approach was applied to each of the source zones wherein the data are presented in parts according to the data completeness, thereof. EHZ, MBZ, EBZ and SHZ are seen with maximum earthquakes of M_W 8.35 (±0.59), 8.79 (±0.31), 8.20 (±0.50), and 8.73 (±0.70), respectively. The maximum possible earthquakes estimated for each individual zone are seen to be lower than that estimated for the single regime. However, the pertaining return periods estimated for the combined zone are far less than those estimated for the demarcated ones.     

2006年青海玉树5.0、5.6、5.4级地震灾害损失及震害特点

2006年7月18、19日在青海玉树发生了5．0、5．6、5．4级地震,地震造成了玉树县上拉秀乡、杂多县萨呼腾镇的房屋破坏,震后青海省地震局会同玉树州地震局、玉树地震台对玉树地震的灾害损失进行了现场评估,并对玉树地震的震害特点进行了总结,最后提出了相关建议。     

室内通信设备地震易损性分析

在总结国内外震后通信设备破坏情况.研究室内传输、电源等不同功能通信设备地震易损性分析方法的基础上,以中山市、东莞市部分设备为例进行分析计算,结合震害经验总结,给出室内通信设备在不同地震烈度时的破坏状态,为通信设备的抗震设防提供参考和依据.     

Thermal Anomalies and Earthquakes： Evidence from Wenchuan, China

Earthquake prediction is a difficult problem in Earth sciences.Unsuccessful predictions one after another urged people to explore more synthetic and comprehensive methods for earthquake prediction.The Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere(LAI)coupling theory pays great attention to the processes taking place within the near ground layer of atmosphere.It has achieved great results recently,and can enlighten us about the nature of an earthquake's precursor.Based on the NCEP reanalysis dataset,this paper attempts to track the anomalies of the surface's upward long wave radiation flux(ULWRF),the temperature at the depth of 10cm～20cm below ground surface layer(BGL)and the air temperature at 2 meters above ground surface(AIR)around the time of the strong Wenchuan earthquake.Thermal anomalies were observed before and after May 12,2008,the time of the Wenchuan earthquake.Perhaps the thermal anomaly that occurred prior to the earthquake can be taken as indicators of the earthquake,but in view of the complexity of the earthquake phenomena,using thermal anomaly as a precursor should be done with caution.     

The Edges of Large Earthquakes and the Epicenters of Future Earthquakes: Stress-induced Correlations in Elastodynamic Fault Models

—Fault models can generate complex sequences of events from frictional instabilities, even when the material properties are completely uniform along the fault. These complex sequences arise from the heterogeneous stress and strain fields which are produced through the dynamics of repeated ruptures on the fault. Visual inspection of the patterns of events produced in these models shows a striking and ubiquitous feature: future events tend to occur near the edges of where large events died out. In this paper, we explore this feature more deeply. First, using long catalogues generated by the model, we quantify the effect. We show, interestingly, that it is an even larger effect for future small events than it is for future large events. Then, using our ability to directly measure all aspects of the model, we find a physical explanation for our observations by examining the stress fields associated with large events. Looking at the average stress field we see a large stress concentration left at the edge of the large events, out of which the future events emerge. Further, we see the smearing out of the stress concentration as small events occur. This indicates why the epicenters of future small events are more correlated with the edges of large events than are the epicenters of future large events. Finally, we discuss how results from our simple model may be relevant to the more complicated case of the earth.     

东北地区中强震前的小震频度特征分析

1970年以来东北地区共发生13次5.0级以上地震,其中8次地震在时间和空间上相对独立。通过系统研究东北及其邻区这8次中强地震前的小震,发现这些中强地震前存在比较明显的小震增强现象。结合东北地区小震活动的特点,提出根据小震活动空间格局是否改变统计小震频度的方法,并进行了初步的应用。结果表明:利用新方法统计小震的频度更能突出中强地震前的小震频度异常,能够有效的提取东北地区中强地震前的中短期异常指标。     

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances in sediments from South Bohai coastal watersheds,China

This study investigated the concentrations and distribution of Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in sediments of 12 rivers from South Bohai coastal watersheds. The highest concentrations of ΣPFAS (31.920 ng g⁻¹ dw) and PFOA (29.021 ng g⁻¹ dw) were found in sediments from the Xiaoqing River, which was indicative of local point sources in this region. As for other rivers, concentrations of ΣPFAS ranged from 0.218 to 1.583 ng g⁻¹ dw were found in the coastal sediments and from 0.167 to 1.953 ng g⁻¹ dw in the riverine sediments. Predominant PFAS from coastal and riverine areas were PFOA and PFBS, with percentages of 30% and 35%, respectively. Partitioning analysis showed the concentrations of PFNA, PFDA and PFHxS were significantly correlated with organic carbon. The results of a preliminary environmental hazard assessment showed that PFOS posed the highest hazard in the Mi River, while PFOA posed a relative higher hazard in the Xiaoqing River.     

陕南村镇住宅结构体系抗震能力评价研究——以汉中市留坝县为例

村镇住宅倒塌或损毁是造成村民财产损失和人员伤亡的直接原因,结构抗震性能是防灾减灾关注的重点。对汉中市留坝县8个行政镇75个自然村11570栋住宅结构体系、建筑年代、各组成部分损坏特征和抗震设防情况等进行调查,统计分析村镇经济水平、住宅结构体系抗震设防缺陷、空间分布特征和危险性等级;完成村镇住宅结构体系震害预测和易损性指数分析。研究结果表明：97.72%的村镇住宅满足正常使用要求,但74%的住宅结构体系存在抗震设防缺陷;村镇住宅受村镇经济水平和地理交通、施工技术及村民抗震设防知识等因素制约,既有结构体系倒塌或损毁的概率大、易损性强、抗震能力差。     

据地壳介质非均匀性判断郯庐断裂带鲁苏段未来大震位置

从大尺度和小尺度两方面研究郯庐断裂带苏鲁段地壳介质非均匀性。使用地震波数据,研究了郯庐断裂带苏鲁段地壳速度结构的非均匀性,单位虚波Q_mps的非均匀性,地壳介质泊松比的非均匀性,反映地壳介质小尺度非均匀性的分层κ值和y值。计算了1668年郯城8 1/2级地震震源区长度和沿断裂带的震源区边界,根据地震构造和地震活动性确定断裂的闭锁段,地震应力的积累单元和调整单元。对比1668年郯城8 1/2级地震的地壳介质状况,将各种非均匀性参数综合分析,结果表明,各种参数指向一致,未来大震的可能区域是33°-34.5°N,118°-118.8°E的北北东向区域,震级可达8级。     

Stable Continental Region Earthquakes in South China

— This paper reviews some remarkable characteristics of earthquakes in a Stable Continental Region (SCR) of the South China Block (SCB). The kernel of the SCB is the Yangtze platform solidified in late Proterozoic time, with continental growth to the southeast by a series of fold belts in Paleozoic time. The facts that the deviatoric stress is low, the orientations of the major tectonic features in the SCB are substantially normal to the maximum horizontal principal stress, and a relatively uniform crust, seem to be the major reasons for lack of significant seismicity in most regions of the SCB. Earthquakes in this region are mainly associated with three seismic zones: (1) the Southeast China Coast seismic zone related to Guangdong-Fujian coastal folding belt (associated with Eurasia-Philippine Sea plate collision); (2) the Southern Yellow Sea seismic zone associated with continental shelf rifts and basins; and (3) the Downstream Yangtze River seismic zone spatially coinciding with Tertiary rifts and basin development. All three seismic zones are close to one or two major economic and population centers in the SCB so that they pose significant seismic hazards. Earthquake focal mechanisms in the SCB are consistent with strike-slip to normal faulting stress regimes. Because of the global and national economic significance of the SCB and its dense population, the seismic hazard of the region is of outstanding importance. Comparing the SCB with another less developed region, a pending earthquake with the same size and tectonic setting would cause substantially more severe social and economic losses in the SCB. This paper also compiles an inventory of historic moderate to great earthquakes in the SCB; most of the data are not widely available in English literature.     

长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划

在回顾总结了国外火山碎屑流灾害分析模型研究历史的基础上,本文选取了Flow3D模型对我国东北地区长白山天池火山未来大喷发可能产生的火山碎屑流进行了灾害区域划分。以长白山天池火山现代地形为依据,设定了11条未来爆炸式火山喷发时产生的火山碎屑流的可能流动线路。模拟结果表明,在喷发柱高度为10km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为13.7km;在喷发柱高度为20km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为35.4km;在喷发柱高度为30km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为57.8km。在此基础上,得出了长白山天池火山未来发生中规模、大规模和超大规模火山喷发时火山碎屑流的覆盖范围,完成了我国第一幅长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划图。     

Research on Earthquakes in Cities of China

In this paper, we briefly describe the general destruction caused by historic earthquakes in major cities of China, preliminarily analyze the heaviness and widespread occurrence of earthquakes in cities of China, and suggest that research on scenario earthquakes in cities should be developed as a part urban disaster reduction research.