对就地养老的反思——“人”与“地方”关系视角①

在有关养老的老年学和地理学研究中,“就地养老”是一个广泛使用的概念,并一直被认为是解决老龄人口养老需求的有效政策手段。迄今为止,关于就地养老的研究主要关注了很多能够让老年人健康就地(或在家)养老的物质方面的因素,比如住房条件或家庭照护。有些老年学研究者们认识到,就地养老受到居住环境中实体环境和社会、情感因素的共同影响。但我们认为,在养老体验研究中,要更加深入地审视“人”和“地方”之间的复杂关系。特别是,我们主张就地养老成功的因素是地方具有维持良好关系的潜力。提到“地方(place)”一词的时候,人们过分局限于关注老年人身体上接近的地理空间,或是具有实体边界的地方,例如房子或社区。而我们通过回顾现有文献发现,对许多选择就地养老的人来说,更具有意义的是随着时间的推移,他们在不同空间尺度上所建立起来的多元的、网络化的社会和非社会关系。基于这个新的视角,可以更好地理解老年人与地方的多层次的联系,以及从不同尺度和不同类型的人与地方的关系来考察就地养老的意义。     

基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制

利用2000年和2010年分县人口普查数据,分析中国县域人口老龄化的空间格局及变化,采用结构方程模型拟合人口老龄化影响因子之间的路径关系,探讨中国县域人口老龄化的影响机制。结果表明:内蒙古包头至云南腾冲是中国县域人口老龄化较为清晰的空间分界线,其东南部老龄化高值县区连片集中,低值县区夹杂其间;西北全域老龄化率普遍较低,仅在北缘横亘一条中值县区连绵带。结构方程模型的拟合结果很好地解释了中国县域人口老龄化空间差异的影响机制。迁移率、预期寿命和生育率是人口老龄化进程的内生因素,其中,预期寿命对县域人口老龄化有正向效应,迁移率和生育率则对县域人口老龄化有负向效应。社会经济、家庭状况和自然环境等因素是人口老龄化进程的外生因素,对中国县域人口老龄化有显著的直接和间接效应。收入增加、社会发展、居住条件改善以及环境舒适性提高等推高县域人口老龄化水平,城镇化水平提高则降低县域人口老龄化水平。     

县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异

2000年以来,中国的老龄化进程加快,人口老龄化已经成为中国社会经济发展必须面对的新常态与核心问题之一。本文从县域尺度出发,基于2000和2010年的人口普查数据,应用标准差椭圆、地理探测器等方法,分析了10年间中国2283个县域单元人口老龄化的空间分布、区域差异及其影响因素。结果表明：①人口老龄化空间分布模式多样,胡焕庸线西北半壁以均质化、轴带特征为主;而胡焕庸线东南半壁则呈现出核心—外围的分布特征。②2000-2010年间,人口老龄化均值从6.7%增至8.7%,表明中国县域全面进入老年型社会,步入老年型的县域多集中于内陆、东北地区、丝绸之路经济带沿线区;10年间人口老龄化总体空间格局较为稳定,但人口老龄化的变动趋势差异显著。③人口老龄化在“胡焕庸线”两侧、不同地域类型间、城乡间、民族自治地区与非民族自治地区间、贫困与非贫困地区间存在差异,且差异变动的方向并不一致。④影响人口老龄化的核心因素为各区域往期人口年龄结构、步入老年序列人口比重、人口流出的比例等。     

Working at leisure: critical geographies of ageing

Summary Though the usefulness of 'leisure' as an analytical category is in itself problematic, exploring individual experiences of leisure may demonstrate how representations of ageing are embodied and emplaced. Qualitative interviews with 21 residents (over 60 years of age) of a provincial city in New Zealand/Aotearoa illustrate that constructions of ageing as idleness, dependency, inactivity and infirmity may be contested through engaging in leisure activities. Though leisure discourses are associated with notions of freedom, resistance to ageing and ageism may be constrained by constructions of leisure as work.     

城市老龄化问题研究的时间地理学框架与展望

进入21世纪后，老龄化问题已经成为全世界关注的焦点之一，亦成为多学科研究的对象，通过社会学和地理学对老龄化问题研究视角的对比分析，将时间地理学方法引入对城市老龄化问题的研究中，提出社会学视角与地理学视角相结合的城市老龄化的研究基本框架，展望时间地理学在城市老年服务设施的时间管理和空间管理，老年福利服务以及老年社区建设等方面的应用前景。     

Ageing research in Australia: reflecting on Graeme Hugo’s four decades of contribution

ABSTRACT

Globally, population ageing is one of the most pressing social and policy issues faced today. Over the next two decades, Australian society will face dramatic increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over, as the baby boomers move into older age and fertility levels remain low. Yet population ageing is not a surprising or new trend—demographic changes in the age profile of a population tend to occur incrementally rather than suddenly. As a demographer and geographer, Graeme Hugo drew attention to this trend in Australia’s population more than three decades ago. Throughout Graeme Hugo’s vast breadth of work over the past 40 years, there has been a consistent thread of demographic analysis and academic thought associated with the ageing of Australia’s population. This paper focuses on Hugo’s contributions to academic thought and policy on Australia’s ageing population and the challenges associated with this for both service delivery and health policy as Australian society moves into an unprecedented era of population ageing.     

Exploring Cities through a Population Ageing Matrix: a spatial and temporal analysis of older adult population trends in Perth,Australia

In an increasingly urbanised and ageing world the spatial distribution of an older population is a matter of growing scholarly and policy interest. Much of the research on this topic has tended to draw on one of two key measures: structural ageing, or the ratio of older cohorts to the rest of the population, or numeric ageing, which simply counts the number of older people without reference to the rest of the population. This paper argues that, on their own, these measures have limitations, and that considerable value lies in assessing the interplay between numeric and structural ageing measures. The population ageing matrix, a theoretical framework that classifies the demographic dynamics of population ageing across metropolitan areas, is presented and examined through the case study of Perth, Western Australia. The value of the matrix to reveal patterns and trends missed by analyses of single measures is investigated and areas that are experiencing changes in the composition and size of the ageing demographic are identified. The paper also reflects on the implications of these findings for policy and planning.     

Development features of regional population aging in Finland

"Population ageing has emerged as one of the crucial problems facing developed countries. In Finland, the old population (aged 65 and over) has doubled in numbers over the past 30 years. The phenomena underlying this ageing trend include a decline in fertility, increase of the average life expectancy, and the effects of migration. Considerable regional differences in population ageing can be observed between Finland's provinces, municipalities and between their different parts. The number of the elderly is projected to increase in all provinces, the highest relative increase taking place in the provinces of Lapland, Uusimaa and Oulu between 1990-2020." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异

分析了我国人口老龄化发展的三个阶段,并预测了它的发展趋势。研究了人口老龄化的地理区域差异,表明在城乡之间、东西部地区之间和各民族地区之间的差异比较明显,而在贫困地区与非贫困地区之间有不同程度的差异。为按照各地区人口老龄化发展的不同特点,因地制宜地解决我国人口老龄化问题提供依据。     

Variations in Ageing in Home and Ageing in Neighbourhood

This paper takes a new approach to investigating people who age in place. It provides an explanation for why people age in a place that can be useful in government and corporate planning. Our research investigates the principal factors that drive the decision of a rising number of older Australians to age in place. Many older people wish to age in place rather than move in with their children or be institutionalised. They wish to continue to be active in their local communities and maintain their existing social ties. The concept of ageing in place covers two distinct groups: those who are able to stay in their current dwellings and age in home and those who move house but remain in their local community and age in neighbourhood. Age-friendly home modification is a response to ageing in home, whereas the provision of institutional healthcare and the provision of age-suitable housing to facilitate downsizing are associated with ageing in neighbourhood. Using Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data, this research examines the mobility decisions of older Australians and identifies the major determinants of a decision to age in place. This research argues for a better understanding of ageing in place, differentiating between those ageing in home and those ageing in neighbourhood.     

中国边界县区人口老龄化的时空格局及其影响因素研究

受功能文化区理论和距离衰减定律的影响,中国边界县区凸显出明显的特性,这种“边界效应”深刻影响到老龄化进程。利用2000、2010年分县人口普查数据,统计分析边界县区人口老龄化时空格局,通过空间分析方法和路径分析模型,剖析中国边界县区老龄化进程的影响机理。研究表明：①2000—2010年中国边界县区老龄化率虽低于全国平均水平但增速明显,且集中分布的趋势在相对减弱,空间差异增大,总体上呈现出东南-西北方向较为明显的分异;②热点县区集聚带基本分布于中国东南部,冷点县区集聚带基本分布于中国西北部,且热点县区显示出由东向西扩展、由北向南转移的趋势;③中国边界县区老龄化的直接影响因子为预期寿命、生育率和迁移率。其中预期寿命和生育率对边界县区老龄化有正向效应,迁移率则对边界县区老龄化产生负向效应;且预期寿命影响强度最大,迁移率次之,生育率影响强度最弱;④经济因素、社会因素、家庭因素和自然因素作为外生变量,分别对边界县区老龄化率产生直接和间接的影响。其中正向因子按总效应值依次为人均教育水平、家庭结构、居住条件、人居环境指数、人均GDP和城镇化率,对老龄化率产生促进作用。     

中国人口老龄化区域差异及驱动机制研究

基于中国第五、六次人口普查数据,分析中国省域人口老龄化的程度、速度、社会经济影响、空间差异及其驱动机制。结果表明：① 2000~2010年中国人口老龄化处于初级老龄化阶段且不断加深,区域差异缩小,东部地区低速增长,中西部地区老龄化与养老负担快速增加。老年人口密度属较低密度区,从东向西呈梯度降低。② 中国省域人口老龄化程度及空间布局是人口自然增长、人口机械增长、经济水平等因素相互调节与空间分异的综合结果。③ 各机制系数空间异质性的综合作用促使老龄化大致由南北向分异转变为东西向分异的空间格局。省际人口迁移从根本上制约如今的中国人口老龄化空间格局。     

Understanding grower demographics,motivations and management practices to improve engagement,extension and industry resilience: a case study of the macadamia industry in the Northern Rivers,Australia

Research and development programs for improved productivity and profitability in horticulture have focused largely on understanding biophysical factors and production and harvest technologies. By contrast, relatively few studies focus upon the existing status of a rural community in terms of demographics, rationales and motivations underlying current farm management practices. Understanding such factors is increasingly important as pressures from climate change, globalised market forces, land-use competition and ageing workforces intersect on farms and for farmers. This paper explores experiences among macadamia growers in the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales, Australia, with the aim to better understand and improve the targeting of development programs to meet grower needs and aspirations, for improved industry resilience. Results suggest that growers are a diverse, ageing demographic who came into the industry with a variety of skill sets. Noting a lack of previous farming experience for many growers, we highlight the need to consider information transfer and succession planning, along with aspirations to consolidate properties and skills. New engagement approaches are recommended, with tailored extension to different grower groups. To aid with this process, a classification tree was developed for the purposes of separating growers into groups with different support needs.     

New Zealanders on the Population Geography of the Western Island

New Zealand origin academics have played a key role in the academic study of Australia's population in the post-war period. The paper argues that New Zealanders have contributed not only to the furthering of knowledge of the processes of change in the Australian population but have been important in the teaching of population geography in Australian universities, made inputs into policy relating to population and been influential in the development of the Australian Population Association. Major contributions have been made by New Zealanders not only in the traditionally strong areas of population geography such as internal and international migration but also in the areas of fertility, mortality and ageing.     

Population aging in South-East Asia and policies of old-age support

"The problem of ageing is generally perceived as being typical of developed countries, as these have in most cases reached the last stage of their demographic transition. On the other hand, a rapid decline of the fertility rate, knowingly associated [with] a quick improvement of socio-economic factors and, often, [with] successful birth-control policies, is causing a sharp increase of the relative amount of elderly people also in some developing countries. This has a dramatic impact on family structures that, in traditional societies, assist the elderly relatives, while the government is usually still unable to provide institutional support. The issue is analysed in the South East Asian context." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)     

北京城市老年人的日常活动路径及其时空特征

运用时间地理学方法,通过对北京市3个典型城市社区中老年人24h活动日志的问卷调查,描述北京城市老年人日常生活活动类型的一般时空特征.运用日活动路径分析,从微观层面探讨老年人的年龄、性别、收入、家庭结构等因素对一天的时间尺度内日常生活活动的影响.通过考察城市老年人日常生活活动的一般性规律和个性化差异,为适应老龄化趋势的和谐城市规划建设实践提供科学依据.     

Floribec: The life and death of a tourism-based transnational community

The authors outline how a tourist destination can morph into a tourism-based transnational community. A three-phase model is designed to explore the touristification process of a transnational community. The phases are the adoption of a tourist destination, the transformation of the destination into a tourism-based transnational community, and decline under real estate and ageing population pressures.     

老龄化社会中的地方和非正式照护①——地理老年学最新研究进展

发达国家政策制定者和执行者正面临着一个重要问题,即如何照护身体衰弱的老年群体,以应对人均寿命延长给社会经济与福利带来的影响。当然寿命延长本身是人类取得的一个巨大成功。然而,预期寿命的增加也引发了老年人口尤其是高龄老人数量的增长,这些高龄老人面临疾病高发和工具性日常生活活动能力(Instrumental Activities of Daily Life, IADLs)下降的情况,而这种能力对保持他们晚年生活的独立和尊严非常重要。与此同时,政策和实践的重心已经从机构养老转为“就地养老”,即支持老年人尽可能长时间地住在自己家里。从概念上讲,这意味着之前由机构提供的服务和照护(care)将改为由家庭来提供,这样脆弱的老年人也可以得到来自家人、朋友和邻居的非正式照护。一方面,这意味着许多老年人能够享受到由家庭照护所带来的亲密感、安全感和情感支持;另一方面,家庭结构的变化,社区的衰落,以及经济紧缩时期保障和福利的大幅削减,造成越来越多的老年人要面对孤独、孤立及风险。于是,老年人的照护者、照护地点和照护方式,及老年人对这些因素的差异化体验,将成为对健康和老龄化研究感兴趣的地理学家越来越关心的问题。本文回顾了地理老年学对非正式照护和家庭研究的最新进展,指出该领域的工作对老年人口照护的多学科探讨具有重要贡献。     

国内外生命历程与居住选择研究回顾和展望

1970年代后生命历程分析成为贯穿居住选择微观研究的核心方法。住房权属选择和居住流动是西方居住选择微观研究的主要内容。西方研究大多为应用生命历程观念将住房权属转换和居住流动决策与家庭生命历程和住房市场中的重要诱因联系起来,发现家庭特征、家庭生命周期变化和住房市场环境等都是居住选择的重要影响因素。对比西方的研究,中国城市居住选择微观研究非常缺乏,一些研究发现除了家庭特征和住房市场特征外,政府和工作单位的影响非常大。