估算模式 AERSCREEN的参数敏感性研究

《环境影响评价技术导则大气环境》（HJ2.2-2018）推荐的估算模式AERSCREEN在气象和地形资料的处理以及建筑物下洗等多个方面做了改进。利用估算模式AERSCREEN,针对30 m左右高度的点源,进行了不同排放参数、不同气象条件下最大落地浓度的敏感性试验。结果表明：随着烟气出口流速的增大,地面浓度最大值逐渐减小;随着波文比的变化,地面浓度最大值没有明显的变化;随着地面粗糙度的增大,地面浓度最大值逐渐减小;随着烟气出口温度的增高,地面浓度最大值逐渐减小;当烟气温度为75℃,粗糙度达到1.3 m时,地面浓度达到最小;随着反照率的增大,地面浓度最大值逐渐减小;随着烟囱高度的增大,地面浓度最大值逐渐减小;在各种烟囱高度条件下,随着最高环境温度的增高,地面浓度最大值逐渐增大;而在各种环境温度条件下,随着烟囱高度的增高,地面浓度最大值在逐渐减小;模式中,随着最低环境温度的增高,地面浓度最大值没有变化;但随着最小风速的增大,模拟得到的地面浓度最大值会逐渐减小。     

Seeding agent dispersion within convective cloud as simulated by a 3-D numerical model

Summary The three-dimensional mesoscale cloud-resolving model ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) was used to investigate the dispersal of an inert seeding agent within a cumulonimbus (Cb) cloud developing from two different initial states. In this paper, we stress the influence vortices in the cloud have on seeding agent dispersion. If a strong directional ambient wind shear is present in the lowest layer, a vortex pair formed at the flanks of the simulated cloud. Following the velocity field, a considerable amount of the injected seeding agent would be thrown out to the rear of the cloud, where both updrafts associated with vortices and downdrafts occurred. After a short time the agent was present only in the cloud periphery. If the Cb cloud developed under conditions where directional ambient wind shear did not exist, seeding agent dispersion would be quite different. In this case, almost all the seeding agent was transported into the main updraft, while the residence time of the agent within the cloud was longer due to the weaker cloud dynamics. Therefore, we must pay attention to whether or not the cloud contains vortices when we make the decision where to seed. This is necessary in order to minimize the loss of seeding material.     

Investigation of droplet dynamics in a convective cloud using a Lagrangian cloud model

A precipitating convective cloud is simulated successfully using the Lagrangian cloud model, in which the flow field is simulated by large eddy simulation and the droplets are treated as Lagrangian particles, and the results are analyzed to investigate precipitation initiation and to examine the parameterization of cloud microphysics. It is found that raindrops appear initially near the cloud top, in which strong turbulence and broadened droplet spectrum are induced by the entrainment of dry air, but high liquid–water mixing ratio is maintained within cloud parts because of insufficient mixing. Statistical analysis of the downward vertical velocity of a droplet W reveals that the transition from cloud droplets to raindrops occurs in the range 20 μm < r < 100 μm, while the variation of W depends on turbulence as well as the droplet radius r. The general pattern of the raindrop size distribution is found to be consistent with the Marshall–Palmer distribution. The precipitation flux can be underestimated substantially, if the terminal velocity $w_{\text{s}}$ is used instead of W, but it is not sensitive to the choice of the critical droplet radius dividing cloud drops and raindrops. It is also found that precipitation starts earlier and becomes stronger if the effect of turbulence is included in the collection kernel.     

GRAPES全球模式次网格对流过程对云预报的影响研究

50 km分辨率下的GRAPES全球模式对赤道及低纬度地区云水、云冰、云量和格点降水的预报较实际观测偏少。为解决这一问题,在模式原有的格点尺度云方案基础上,将次网格对流过程的影响作为源汇项,加入到云水、云冰和总云量的预报方程中。结合云和地球辐射能量系统(CERES)与热带降雨测量(TRMM)等卫星云观测资料,进行了改进后的云方案与原云方案预报结果的对比分析。结果显示,考虑了对流对格点尺度云含水量和云量预报的影响后,GRAPES全球模式预报的云和格点降水在赤道及低纬度地区有明显改善,水凝物含水量和总云量的预报结果与实况较为接近,格点降水在总降水中的比例由原来的5%提高到25%。研究进一步表明,次网格对流过程对格点尺度云和降水的影响取决于上升气流质量通量的分布和强度,上升气流的质量通量在对流活动强烈的低纬度热带地区较强,其最大值出现在650—450 hPa高度,因此,次网格对流的卷出过程对中云的影响最为明显。对高云和低云也有一定程度的影响,使云顶变高,云底变低。     

Tropical convective responses to microphysical and radiative processes: a sensitivity study with a 2-D cloud resolving model

Summary Prognostic cloud schemes are increasingly used in weather and climate models in order to better treat cloud-radiation processes. Simplifications are often made in such schemes for computational efficiency, like the scheme being used in the National Centers for Environment Prediction models that excludes some microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction. In this study, sensitivity tests with a 2-D cloud resolving model are carried out to examine effects of the excluded microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction on tropical thermodynamics and cloud properties. The model is integrated for 10 days with the imposed vertical velocity derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment. The experiment excluding the depositional growth of snow from cloud ice shows anomalous growth of cloud ice and more than 20% increase of fractional cloud cover, indicating that the lack of the depositional snow growth causes unrealistically large mixing ratio of cloud ice. The experiment excluding the precipitation-radiation interaction displays a significant cooling and drying bias. The analysis of heat and moisture budgets shows that the simulation without the interaction produces more stable upper troposphere and more unstable mid and lower troposphere than does the simulation with the interaction. Thus, the suppressed growth of ice clouds in upper troposphere and stronger radiative cooling in mid and lower troposphere are responsible for the cooling bias, and less evaporation of rain associated with the large-scale subsidence induces the drying in mid and lower troposphere.     

Sensitivity analysis of the equations for a convective mixed layer

Jump or slab models are frequently used to calculate the depth of the convectively mixed layer and its potential temperature during the course of a clear day. Much attention has been paid theoretically to the parameterization of the budget for turbulent kinetic energy that is required in these models. However, for practical applications the sensitivity of the solutions of the model equations to variations in the entrainment formulation and in the initial and boundary conditions is also very important. We analyzed this sensitivity on the basis of an analytical solution for the model which uses the well-known constant heat flux ratio. The initial conditions for the mixed-layer height (h) and potential temperature ( _m ) quickly lose their influence. Only the initial temperature deficit is important. The mixed-layer temperature at noon on convective days is insensitive to the entrainment coefficient c. It is governed by the integral of the heat input and by the stable lapse rate. A change in c from 0.2 to 0.5 leads to a variation of 20% in h. This is not very much considering the accuracy in the determination of h from actual observations.     

庐山层状云和对流云雨滴谱比较分析

本文从庐山近3 a的雨滴谱观测资料中选取数例层状云降水和对流云降水个例,通过对两类云降水的平均雨滴谱分析拟合、各微物理量演变以及速度谱的对比研究,得出以下结论:庐山对流云降水的平均雨滴谱很宽,有直径大于10 mm的大雨滴出现。Γ分布,对层状云降水拟合,较MP分布差,而对对流云降水拟合,较MP分布好。两类云降水的雨强变化都是由最大雨滴直径和粒子数浓度共同决定的,但对于对流云降水,最大雨滴直径的决定作用更为重要。雨滴直径较小时,两类云降水的实测速度大于经验公式值;而雨滴直径较大时,实测速度值分布在经验公式曲线两侧,但对流云降水的分布偏差要大于层状云降水。     

对流运动中水平旋转气流动力作用的数值分析

用轴对称动力方程组研究对流运动中水平旋转气流的作用,结果表明,有水平旋转气流存在时,将使对流运动中下部的上升气流明显加强,上部减弱,使调整后的垂直气流结构强度增加,强中心高度变低,对流厚度变薄.这有利于解释超级单体的稳定持续发展和对流强度大而云层并不厚的观测事实. 通过对气压场调整的分析,可以认为水平旋转气流对垂直运动的作用是通过气压场的变更而实现的.     

洛川地区孤立对流云雷达回波特征分析

全面认识洛川地区孤立对流云的回波特征,对提高该地区防雹工作有积极的意义。利用洛川711数字化雷达2000—2006年5—9月的探测资料,把洛川地区117例孤立对流云分为3类,即少动单体、移动单体、合并单体。分析3类孤立对流云的发生频次、天气形势、初生位置、日变化、生命史、灾情等特征后发现:洛川地区孤立对流云最常见的形式为少动单体和移动单体;少动单体多产生于稳定的天气形势下,合并单体多产生在低值天气系统中;洛川北、东北、东、东南20～50 km是孤立对流初生的高发区,12—18时是孤立对流初生的高发时段;合并单体的生命史、水平尺度、回波顶高最大,少动单体最小;合并单体的降雹概率最大,产生的灾情较重,移动单体降雹概率次之,产生区域性降雹的概率最大,少动单体降雹概率最小。     

对流性降水雨滴谱特征及其与雷达反射率因子的对比分析

利用OTT Parsivel激光降水粒子谱仪观测的南京地区梅雨季节对流性降水过程的雨滴谱资料和江苏省气象台龙王山雷达观测资料,结合天气形势,对梅雨季节对流性降水过程的微物理参量、平均雨滴谱和速度谱分布特征进行分析;在对平均谱拟合时发现,Gamma分布对小滴数目的估计和大滴端形状的符合程度效果好于M-P分布和对数正态分布,并且拟合了Gamma分布参数μ和λ的二次项关系;建立了雷达反射率因子与雨强的相关关系,并将Parsive激光降水粒子谱仪观测计算的回波强度与雷达观测的回波强度作以比较,结果表明:对于此次暴雨过程,雷达观测到的回波强度有低估的现象,并且Parsivel粒子激光探测仪观测计算的回波强度越大,雷达低估的现象越为明显。回波修正后,用统计的Z-I关系式估算的降水量与Parsivel测得的降水量更为接近。     

A Methodological Study on Using Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) Model Outputs to Drive a One-Dimensional Cloud Model简

A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold （1DSC） cloud model with Weather Research and Fore casting （WRF） model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale stratiform rainfall event that took place on 4-5 July 2004 in Changchun, China. Sensitivity test results suggested that, with hydrometeor pro files extracted from the WRF outputs as the initial input, and with continuous updating of soundings and vertical velocities （including downdraft） derived from the WRF model, the new WRF-driven 1DSC modeling system （WRF-1DSC） was able to successfully reproduce both the generation and dissipation processes of the precipitation event. The simulated rainfall intensity showed a time-lag behind that observed, which could have been caused by simulation errors of soundings, vertical velocities and hydrometeor profiles in the WRF output. Taking into consideration the simulated and observed movement path of the precipitation system, a nearby grid point was found to possess more accurate environmental fields in terms of their similarity to those observed in Changchun Station. Using profiles from this nearby grid point, WRF-1DSC was able to repro duce a realistic precipitation pattern. This study demonstrates that 1D cloud-seeding models do indeed have the potential to predict realistic precipitation patterns when properly driven by accurate atmospheric profiles derived from a regional short range forecasting system, This opens a novel and important approach to developing an ensemble-based rain enhancement prediction and operation system under a probabilistic framework concept.     

贵州西部一次冰雹灾害天气强对流(雹)云演变分析

利用FY2C卫星云图、常规天气图、区域自动站资料以及冰雹资料,对2009-04-15下午发生在贵州西部地区的冰雹灾害天气进行分析。结果表明:700hPa川西南与滇西北交界处的切变发展东移,配合位于贵州西部的地面辐合,形成有利于强对流云发展的天气背景;特殊的地形起到促进对流云团的发展和持续;对流云团具有穹窿结构特征和超级单体特征结构。     

Studying the showers and thunderstorms on the territory of Russia using the numerical model of convective cloud and the reanalysis data

The computation of thunderstorm and shower activity on the territory of Russia during the warm period (June–August) of 1981–2000 for four observation times (00:00, 06:00, 12:00, and 18:00) is carried out using the local convective cloud model (CCM) and the ERA-40 reanalysis data on the vertical distribution of temperature and humidity. The spatial grid with the resolution of 2.5 × 2.5° is used for the computation. Collected and analyzed are the long-term (1936–1965) in situ data on the distribution of the number of days with the thunderstorm on the territory of Russia using the observational data from the ground-based meteorological stations (about 600 stations located in different regions). As a result, the distribution of the number of days with the thunderstorm and with the convective precipitation on the territory of Russia is plotted and analyzed. It agrees on the whole with the observed data. It is demonstrated that the number of days with the thunderstorm and with the convective precipitation correlate well with each other, that also corresponds to the observational data. It is shown that CCM is applicable to the simulation of cloud convection and associated phenomena.     

Sensitivity analysis of climatic parameters for sky classification

Climatic variables are frequently used as weighting factors to indicate the degree of clearness for interpreting sky patterns. However, such important parameters are not always widely available and their criteria to define a sky condition are not clear-cut. In addition, certain variables may be more effective than the others in terms of sky identification. This paper studies the capability of various daylight parameters, namely zenith luminance, global, direct-beam and sky-diffuse illuminance, and solar altitude for categorizing the 15 International Commission on Illumination (CIE) standard skies. A new form of artificial neural networks called probabilistic neural network (PNN) which is a powerful technique for pattern recognition was used for the analysis. The findings suggested that the PNN is an appropriate tool when a number of climatic parameters of various criteria for differentiating sky standards are employed, and the ratio of zenith luminance to diffuse illuminance (L _z/D _v) and solar altitude (?? _s) are respectively the most and the least significant input parameters for discriminating between the 15 CIE skies.     

Effect of merging of the convective cloud clusters on occurrence of heavy rainfall

Sun et al., (1983) have given some favourable environmental conditions and have shown that there are four common features in convective rainstorms. In this paper, an important process of evolution of cloud systems was re-vealed when heavy rainfall occurred based on the diagnostic analysis of heavy rainfall cases. When the different cloud systems merge into a large one, the mesoscale heavy rainfall occurs and enhances. In other words, the process of evo-lution of cloud systems emphasized in this paper is the process of interaction between two cloud systems when the heavy rainfall occurs. The favourable environmental condition is also investigated.     

Impact of different convective cloud schemes on the simulation of the tropical seasonal cycle in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

The simulation of the mean seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) remains a challenge for coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs). Here we investigate how the numerical representation of clouds and convection affects the simulation of the seasonal variations of tropical SST. For this purpose, we compare simulations performed with two versions of the same OAGCM differing only by their convection and cloud schemes. Most of the atmospheric temperature and precipitation differences between the two simulations reflect differences found in atmosphere-alone simulations. They affect the ocean interior down to 1,000 m. Substantial differences are found between the two coupled simulations in the seasonal march of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern part of the Pacific and Atlantic basins, where the equatorial upwelling develops. The results confirm that the distribution of atmospheric convection between ocean and land during the American and African boreal summer monsoons plays a key role in maintaining a cross equatorial flow and a strong windstress along the equator, and thereby the equatorial upwelling. Feedbacks between convection, large-scale circulation, SST and clouds are highlighted from the differences between the two simulations. In one case, these feedbacks maintain the ITCZ in a quite realistic position, whereas in the other case the ITCZ is located too far south close to the equator.