地下流体学科数据处理软件的研制

地下流体学科数据处理软件是"十五"中国地震前兆台网数据处理系统的模块之一,该软件专为"十五"地下流体前兆台站和区域前兆中心设计,主要完成数据转换、数据预处理、常规计算、专业处理和报告编制等项工作.该软件已在各省、自治区、直辖市地震局和各直属单位的前兆台站、区域前兆中心部署.     

利用CDMA 1X+VPN技术实现十三陵地震前兆观测系统信息集成

依托“中国地震数据观测网络”项目,中国地震局地震预测研究所建立了以十三陵地震中心台为前兆台网部,8个无人值守的前兆台站为一体的前兆观测系统。 这套系统利用中国联通的CDMA 1X网络将台站接入到Internet网络,并利用VPN(Virtual Private Network)技术在Internet网络上开辟一条安全、 稳定传输隧道,实现了前兆台站、 观测设备与十三陵前兆台网部的信息集成。 文中以十三陵地震前兆观测系统为例,主要介绍了如何利用CDMA 1X 无线网络和VPN(Virtual Private Network)技术实现前兆观测系统信息集成。 十三陵地震前兆观测系统的正常运行证明,利用CDMA 1X +VPN技术的前兆观测系统组网模式可以做到投资少、 见效快、传输可靠等优势,值得推广应用。     

前兆波及其地震预测意义

通过回顾自20世纪60年代以来地震前兆波的研究与地震预测实践的进展情况,分析利用地震前兆波进行地震预测研究所取得的一些有意义的进展及其在科学上面临的困难,分别对前兆波及其定义、前兆波预测大地震事件基本依据、前兆波观测技术概述、前兆波的地震预测意义进行了探讨.文中定义了地震前兆波,以固体均匀弹性中的介质点波动方程和大量震例总结的前兆波阶段性特征,说明利用地震前兆波预测大地震事件具有坚实的理论基础和实践依据.文中阐述了前兆波观测技术的发展要求,并提出了改变目前的被动观测状况、对观测目标区域发生破坏性地震的短期和临震前兆进行主动观测的科学思路;应强化对地震震源区的观测,利用前兆波携带的信息研究震源及其附近地区的介质参数变化,对实现短临地震预测是有意义的.     

由前兆台站观测信息预测强震地点的途径探索——以汶川8.0级地震为例

基于地震前兆台站观测的异常信息预测强震发生地点,是地震预测研究的薄弱环节之一.例如,在日常震情分析预报中,通常将多种异常现象的相对集中区作为未来可能的强震震中所在区域.但在实际操作中,面临诸多困难和较大的不确定性.     

应重视大地震预测物理基础的研究

正1以前的地震预测物理基础的研究结果已"过期"了1973年美国肖尔兹(Scholz C H)等人在Science上发表了"地震预测的物理基础"一文,他们根据前人关于岩石膨胀的实验结果,提出了地震孕育的膨胀—扩散模式,由此预言地震前在地震的初始破裂区会出现P/S波速比、电阻率、水氡等多种前兆变化。但是,世界上多年来并未获得根据前兆变化成功预测强地震的实例,说明小岩样破裂实验的结果不能作为地震预测的物     

地震前兆地区性差异的力学成因分析

前言 国内外的地震工作者在二十多年的地震前兆观测研究中发现,发生在不同构造背景地区的地震,其前兆的反映情况有很大的差别。在1980年,马宗晋等曾研究过地震的构造分类问题。1982年,日本学者茂木清夫对比了美国西部中加利福尼亚地区、日本地区和中国大陆某些地区的地震前兆情况,提出地震前兆与构造条件之间具有密切的关系。他指出,美国西部的中加州地震,是发生在直线性平直断裂带上的简单剪切运动。该断层面     

云南地震前兆与短临预报

在云南地区近３０年前兆观测及其地震预测预报研究与实践的基础上,从映震效能的角度对云南地区的前兆观测进行了一次系统研究,从６４个前兆台站１６８个观测 ,优选出了２０个具有较好映震效能的前兆台项。它们初步构成对云南地区地震进行”时、空、强“预测的骨干前兆指标群。     

"九五"数字化地震前兆台站整体接入因特网的研究

介绍了如何将"九五"数字化前兆台站设备整体接人因特网,提供了一种非常简便、实用的整体接人方案.台站原来的构成模式没有改变,台网中心和台站熟悉的原工作方式得到了保留,实现了台站网络化的目标,使现有台网在因特网环境下能够正常运行.它能够与"十五"新建的前兆台网进行集成,便于整个台网的统一管理.     

土地磁磁偏角“极小值”与强震的对应关系

1969年渤海地震前兆总结会议上,曾有专文讨论磁偏角与渤海大震的关系。以后各地专业台站在运用磁偏角予报地震方面积累了不少经验,随着陶瓷偏角仪的推广,各地群测点的磁偏角观测工作蓬勃开展起来。     

山西地震前兆台站分类管理

基于山西省地震局区域中心市县地震前兆数据库,依据中国地震前兆数据库结构规范录入基础数据,使用SQL语言,通过新增字段、创建数据库表和评估清单视图等操作,据山西省“市县地震前兆监测台站名录”三级考核台站的测项信息进行分类,实现山西地震前兆监测台站的三级分类管理及查询,为日常管理及各项业务工作开展提供便利。     

On the synchronism in the events within the core and on the surface of the earth: the changes in the organic world and in the polarity of the geomagnetic field in the phanerozoic

The data on geomagnetic reversals are compared with the changes in the organic world and with the lower-mantle plumes. The times of the formation of plumes and the times of their appearance on the Earth’s surface relate to the intervals characterized by the different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals, i.e., there is no interrelation between the formation of plumes and the frequency of the changes in the geomagnetic field polarity. At the same time, a certain synchronism is observed between the frequency of the geomagnetic reversals and the boundaries of the biostratigraphic ages, i.e., the changes in the organic world in the long-period range. A hypothesis is proposed, which explains the change in the sign of the geomagnetic field by the combined effect of the irregular rotation of the internal core relative to the mantle and the changes in the slope angle of the axis of the Earth’s rotation, which, in turn, results in synchronous events on the Earth’s surface: the rates of changes in the organic world.     

On the gravimetric undulations of the geoid and the deflections of the vertical

Summary The author mentions the aims of the World-wide gravity project he established in the Ohio State University in Columbus, in 1950. He outlines the practical procedure of the gravimetric computations of the undulationsN and the vertical deflection components and and emphasizes that only by the global international cooperation and additional gravity observations at sea carried out during the last decade it has been possible to gather to Columbus the needed gravity material. Since there exist still large gravimetrically unsurveyed areas it is of vital significance to study what gravity anomalies are best to be used for these regions. The given figures concerning the accuracy of theN, and , estimated theoretically and obtained in practice, indicate that in the gravimetrically well surveyed parts of the world like in Europe and the United States we can get gravimetrically on basis of existing gravity material theN-values with accuracy of about 5–10 meters, and and with the accuracy of about 1. The geoid undulationsN are already computed in Columbus for more than 6000 points of the northern hemisphere. The sample maps show the interesting geoid of Europe and vicinity between the latitudes 60° and 30° and longitude 5° W and 30° E, drafted on basis of more than 1000N-values computed at the corners of 1°×1° squares. It is interesting to realize that the geoid undulations in all this area are positive, the extreme values being between 40 and 50 meters. The geophysical significance of the geoid maps of this kind is pointed out.     

On the maintenance of the axisymmetric part of the flow in the atmosphere

Summary The maintenance of the axisymmetric component of the flow in the atmosphere is investigated by means of a steady-state, quasi-geostrophic formulation of the meteorological equations. It is shown that the meridional variations in the time-averaged axisymmetric variables can be expressed as the sum of three contributions, one being due to the eddy heat transport, another to the eddy momentum transport, and a third to the convective-radiative equilibrium temperature which enters the problem through the specification of a Newtonian form of diabatic heating. The contributions by the large scale eddies are evaluated through the use of observed values for the eddy heat and momentum transports.The contributions from each of the three forcing mechanisms to the temperature and zonal wind fields are invstigated individually and found to be of about equal importance. The sum of the three contributions are also presented for the temperature, the zonal wind, the stream function associated with the mean meridional circulation and the corresponding vertical motion. Although the results fail to reproduce the main observed features of the lower stratosphere, they are found to be in good agreement with observations in the middle latitude troposphere. At any pressure level, for example, the computed mean zonal wind has a jet-like profile and the axis of the jet is found to slope to the south with height, as observed in the atmosphere.Based in part on a thesis submitted by the first author as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree at the University of Michigan. — Publication No. 194 from the Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, The University of Michigan.     

太平洋中部地磁台11年周期变化的研究

综合APIA、HONOLULU、PAMATAI 3个地磁台三分量的11年周期变化的形态后,可定性地提出该变化源于内场。如内源为核幔边界的电涡流,则其中心点应位于3台之间。     

Comparison Between the Nutations of the Planet Mars and the Nutations of the Earth

The nutations of the planets Mars andEarth are investigated and compared. Alarge number of interior structureparameters are involved in the nutationcomputations. The comparison between the observations and the computationsprovides several constraints on these parmeters andtherefore allows a better understanding of the physics of the interior of theplanet. For the Earth, the high precision of the observations of the nutationshas led to a very good determination of interior properties of the planet. ForMars, observations of nutations are not yet available, and we review how theamplitude of the Martian nutations depends on the hypotheses consideredfor its interior. Although Mars is very similar to the Earth, its interior is not well known;for example, we don't knowif its core is liquid or solid. Only if the core is liquid,the Free Core Nutation (FCN) normal mode exists and can alter the nutationswhich are close to the resonance. From the observed geoids, it is known thatboth planets are not in hydrostatic equilibrium. The departure is larger forMars than for the Earth, and consequently, the implication of considering a convective mantle instead of a mantle in hydrostatic equilibrium described byClairaut's equation for the initial equilibrium state of the planet is largeron the Martian nutations than on the Earth nutations. The consequences of theuncertainty in the core dimensions are also examined and shown to be of a veryhigh influence for Mars if the core is liquid, due to the potential changes inthe FCN resonance. The influence of the presence of an inner core, which isknown to exist for the Earth, could be more important for Mars than for theEarth if the inner core is large. Due to the presence of Tharsis on Mars, thetriaxiality of this planet has, additionally, larger effects than on Earth.     

Magnetic stratigraphy of the Ordovician in the lower reach of the Kotuy River: the age of the Bysy-Yuryakh stratum and the rate of geomagnetic reversals on the eve of the superchron

Until recently, the existing data prevented the geophysicists from accurately dating the Bysy-Yuryakh stratum, which outcrops in the middle reach of the Kotuy River, constraining the time of its formation to a wide interval from the end of the Late Cambrian to the beginning of the Silurian. The obtained paleomagnetic data unambiguously correlate the Bysy-Yuryakh stratum to the Nyaian regional stage and constrain its formation, at least a considerable part of it, by the Tremadocian. This result perfectly agrees with the data on the Bysy-Yuryakh conodonts studied in this work and yields a spectacular example of the successful application of paleomagnetic studies in solving important tasks of stratigraphy and, correspondingly, petroleum geology. Within the Bysy-Yuryakh stratum, we revealed a large normal-polarity interval corresponding to the long (>1 Ma) period when the geomagnetic reversals were absent. This result, in combination with the data for the Tremadocian and Middle–Upper Cambrian sequences of the other regions, indicates that (1) the rate of occurrence of the geomagnetic reversals on the eve of the Ordovician Moyero superchron of reversed polarity was at most one reversal per Ma; (2) the superchron does not switch on instantaneously but is preceded by a certain gradual change in the operation conditions of the dynamo mechanism which, inter alia, manifests itself by the reduction of the frequency of geomagnetic reversals with the approach of the superchron. This finding supports the views according to which a process preparing the establishment of the superchrons takes place at the core–mantle boundary.     

On the variation in the geomagnetic dipole over the geological history of the Earth

The global database on the paleointensity, containing determinations of the virtual dipole moment (VDM) for a stable (normal) regime of the geomagnetic field in a time interval of up to 3.5 Ga, is supplemented by new VDM determinations and analyzed. The field generation process started no later than 3–3.5 Ga (earlier data are absent) at the stage of the Earth’s core formation. Since that time, the dipole value has differed from its present value by no more than an order of magnitude, and the deviations that have already been detected tend toward smaller values. The distribution of VDM values in the time interval 0–400 Ma is bimodal, which apparently reflects the presence of two different generation levels of the geomagnetic field distinguished by a relatively large value (close to the present field value) and a relatively small value (approximately half as large as the present value). The total duration of decreased VDM values appreciably exceeds that of increased VDM values (179.1 and 28.6 Myr, respectively). On the whole, data on the paleointensity do not contradict the hypothesis about the dipole nature of the field over the last 400 Myr; however, the number of determinations at high paleolatitudes is too small to draw decisive conclusions on the validity (or invalidity) of the dipole field approximation based solely on paleointensity data.     

Structure of the poleward wall of the trough and the inclination of the geomagnetic field above the EISCAT radar

A special high-resolution routine of the EISCAT radar has been used to investigate the structure and development of the poleward wall of a deep trough in electron density. The feature was tracked by the radar during a 7-hour period under very quiet geomagnetic conditions. The field-aligned nature of the structure enabled an estimate to be made of the inclination of the geomagnetic field above EISCAT that was in good agreement with the current model. Observations of narrow field-aligned enhancements in electron temperature demonstrated that the wall of this trough is a dynamic feature, reforming regularly as the electron density responds on a time scale of tens of minutes to energy input from soft-particle precipitation.