Predicted ground motion after the L��Aquila 2009 earthquake (Italy, M w 6.3): input spectra for seismic microzoning

After the April 6th 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (M _w 6.3), where 306 people died and a further 60,000 were displaced, seismic microzoning investigations have been carried out for towns affected by a macroseismic intensity equal to or greater than 7 MCS. Based upon seismotectonic data, historical seismicity and strong motion records, we defined input spectra to be used in the numerical simulations of seismic microzoning in four key municipalities, including the town of L’Aquila. We adopted two main approaches: uniform hazard response spectra are obtained by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment introducing some time-dependency for individual faults on the study area; a deterministic design spectrum is computed from magnitude/distance pairs extracted by a stationary probabilistic analysis of historical intensities. The uniform hazard spectrum of the present Italian building code represents the third, less restrictive, response spectrum to be used for the numerical simulations in seismic microzoning. Strong motions recordings of the main shock of the L’Aquila sequence enlighten the critical role played by both the local response and distances metric for sites located above a seismogenic fault; however, these time-histories are compatible with the uncertainties of a deterministic utilization of ground motion predictive equations. As recordings at very near field are rare, they cannot be neglected while defining the seismic input. Disaggregation on the non-Possonian seismotectonic analysis and on the stationary site-intensity estimates reach very similar results in magnitude-distance pairs identification; we interpret this convergence as a validation of the geology-based model by historical observations.     

A new approach of selecting real input ground motions for seismic design: The most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions

This paper presents a new way of selecting real input ground motions for seismic design and analysis of structures based on a comprehensive method for estimating the damage potential of ground motions, which takes into consideration of various ground motion parameters and structural seismic damage criteria in terms of strength, deformation, hysteretic energy and dual damage of Park & Ang damage index. The proposed comprehensive method fully involves the effects of the intensity, frequency content and duration of ground motions and the dynamic characteristics of structures. Then, the concept of the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motion is introduced. Based on the concept, the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions for rock, stiff soil, medium soil and soft soil site conditions are selected in terms of three typical period ranges of structures. The selected real strong motion records are suitable for seismic analysis of important structures whose failure or collapse will be avoided at a higher level of confidence during the strong earthquake, as they can cause the greatest damage to structures and thereby result in the highest damage potential from an extended real ground motion database for a given site. In addition, this paper also presents the real input design ground motions with medium damage potential, which can be used for the seismic analysis of structures located at the area with low and moderate seismicity. The most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions are verified by analysing the seismic response of structures. It is concluded that the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motion approach can select the real ground motions that can result in the highest damage potential for a given structure and site condition, and the real ground motions can be mainly used for structures whose failure or collapse will be avoided at a higher level of confidence during the strong earthquake. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Analysis: An Engineering Approach to the Development of Source and Site-Specific Ground Motion Time Histories in Areas of Low Seismicity

Modern engineering design methods require ground motion time histories as input for non-linear dynamic structural analysis. Non-linear dynamic methods of analysis are increasingly applied in the context of probabilistic risk assessments and for cost-effective design of critical infrastructures. In current engineering practice artificial time histories matching deterministic design spectra or probabilistic uniform hazard spectra are most frequently used for engineering analysis. The intermediate step of generation of response spectra can lead to a biased estimate of the potential damage from earthquakes because of insufficient consideration of the true energy content and strong motion duration of earthquakes. Thus, assessment of seismic risk may seem unrealistic. An engineering approach to the development of three-component ground motion time histories has been established which enables consideration of the typical characteristics of seismic sources, regional ground motion attenuation, and the main geotechnical characteristics of the target site. Therefore, the approach is suitable for use in scenario-based risk analysis a larger number of time histories are required for representation of the seismic hazard. Near-field effects are implemented in the stochastic source model using engineering approximations. The approach is suggested for use in areas of low seismicity where ground motion records of larger earthquakes are not available. Uncertainty analysis indicates that ground motions generated by individual earthquakes are well constrained and that the usual lognormal model is not the best choice for predicting the upper tail of the distribution of the ground motions.     

Regional and local seismic hazard assessment

Recent earthquakes such as the M_JMA 7.2 Hyogo-ken Nambu earthquake and the M 7.4 Kocaeli earthquake demonstrate once again the need to include detailed soil investigation into hazard evaluation, that is the need of microzonation. Seismic hazard assessment evaluated at a regional scale generally does not consider soil effects but only in a limited way using an attenuation law that can be ‘soft soil’ or ‘rock’. However, the relevant role of seismic hazard in the assessment of seismic coefficients for the definition of the actions in seismic codes must be properly considered. That is to say, the level of protection of buildings is proportional to a definite level of hazard (generally considered to be the ground motion with 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years). When a microzonation is performed, this criterion cannot be ignored, therefore, a clear linkage must be established between hazard (regional scale) and microzonation. The crucial point is represented by the reference motion (or input motion) to be used for site effects analysis, that must be compatible with the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, three different approaches for reference motion evaluation are analysed: probabilistic; stochastic; and deterministic. Through the case history of Fabriano microzonation the three approaches are compared. It is shown that each approach presents advantages and disadvantages with respect to the others. For example, the probabilistic approach (the reference motion is directly derived from the expected response spectra for a given return period) is linked with hazard, but produces an overestimation in short periods range, while the deterministic approach correctly simulates the wave propagation, but it ends with a kind of conditional probability. Until now, clear criteria to choose the right approach do not appear to exist and the expert experience is of fundamental importance.     

Peak-over-threshold: Quantifying ground motion beyond design

In performance-based seismic design, as adopted by several building codes worldwide, the structural performance is verified against ground motions that have predetermined exceedance return periods at the site of interest. Such a return period is evaluated by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the corresponding ground motion is often represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). The structural performance for ground motions larger than those considered in this design approach is, typically, not explicitly controlled under the assumption that they are sufficiently rare. On one hand, this does not achieve uniform safety at sites characterized by different design ground motions corresponding to the same return period; on the other hand, exceedances of the design spectra are systematically observed over large areas, for example in Italy. The latter issue is because of the nature of UHS, the exceedance of which is likely-to-almost-certain when the construction site is in the epicentral area of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes (ie, the design spectrum may be not conservative at these locations), especially if PSHA is based on seismic source zones. The former is partially because of the systematic difference of ground motions for return periods larger than the design one at the different sites. Quantification of the expected ground motion given the exceedance of the design ground motions (ie, the recently introduced as the expected peak-over-threshold or POT) can be of help in quantitatively assessing these issues. In the study, a procedure to compute the POT distribution is derived first; second, POT spectra are introduced and used to help understanding why and how seismic structural reliability of code-conforming structures decreases as the seismic hazard of the site increases; third, expected and 95^th percentile POT maps are shown for Italy to discuss how much high hazard sites are exposed to much larger peak-over-threshold with respect to mid-hazard and low-hazard sites; finally the POT is discussed with respect to the slope of the hazard curve (in log-log scale) at the threshold, a known proxy for ground motion beyond design. All data presented in the maps are made available for the interested reader as a supplemental archive.     

Empirical equations for the prediction of displacement spectrum intensity and its correlation with other intensity measures

Displacement spectrum intensity (DSI), defined as the integral of a ground motion's displacement response spectrum from 2.0 to 5.0 s, is proposed as an indicator of the severity of the long period content of a ground motion. It is demonstrated how the distribution of DSI can be predicted using existing ground motion prediction equations for (pseudo) spectral accelerations, which is necessary for it to be a useful intensity measure (IM) in either probabilistic or deterministic seismic hazard analysis. Empirical correlation equations between DSI and other common ground motion IMs are developed for active shallow crustal earthquakes using a dataset of ground motions from active shallow crustal earthquakes. The ability of DSI to account for near-source ground motions exhibiting forward directivity, potentially damaging far-source long-period ground motion, and its use with other spectrum intensity parameters to characterise short, medium, and long period severity of ground motions is discussed. The developed ground motion prediction and correlation equations enable DSI to be utilised in rigorous ground motion selection frameworks such as the generalised conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach.     

Seismic Risk Evaluation

This paper reports the main results of the EC-ProjectSERGISAI. The project developed a computer prototypewhere a methodology for seismic risk assessment hasbeen implemented. Standard procedural codes,Geographic Information Systems and ArtificialIntelligence Techniques compose the prototype, whichpermits a seismic risk assessment to be carried outthrough the necessary steps. Risk is expressed interms of expected damage, given by the combination ofhazard and vulnerability. Two parallel paths have beenfollowed with respect to the hazard factor: theprobabilistic and the deterministic approach. Thefirst provides the hazard analysis based on historicaldata, propagation models, and known seismic sources.The deterministic approach provides the input forscenarios, by selecting a specific ground motion.With respect to the vulnerability factor, severalsystems have been taken into account apart frombuildings, which are usually considered in this typeof analysis. Defining vulnerability as a measure ofhow prone a system is to be damaged in the event of anearthquake, an attempt has been made to move from theassessment of individual objects to the evaluation ofthe performance of urban and regional areas. Anotherstep towards an approach which can better serve civilprotection and land use planning agencies has beenmade by adapting the analysis to the followinggeographical levels: local, sub-regional and regional.Both the hazard and the vulnerability factors havebeen treated in the most suitable way for each one, interms of level of detail, kind of parameters and unitsof measure. In this paper are shown some resultsobtained in two test areas: Toscana in Italy, for theregional level, the Garfagnana sub-area in Toscana,for the sub-regional level, and a part of the city ofBarcelona, Spain, for the local level.     

An efficient algorithm for identifying pulse‐like ground motions based on significant velocity half‐cycles

Ground motions with strong velocity pulses are of particular interest to structural earthquake engineers because they have the potential to impose extreme seismic demands on structures. Accurate classification of records is essential in several earthquake engineering fields where pulse‐like ground motions should be distinguished from nonpulse‐like records, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic risk assessment of structures. This study proposes an effective method to identify pulse‐like ground motions having single, multiple, or irregular pulses. To effectively characterize the intrinsic pulse‐like features, the concept of an energy‐based significant velocity half‐cycle, which is visually identifiable, is first presented. Ground motions are classified into 6 categories according to the number of significant half‐cycles in the velocity time series. The pulse energy ratio is used as an indicator for quantitative identification, and then the energy threshold values for each type of ground motions are determined. Comprehensive comparisons of the proposed approach with 4 benchmark identification methods are conducted, and the results indicate that the methodology presented in this study can more accurately and efficiently distinguish pulse‐like and nonpulse‐like ground motions. Also presented are some insights into the reasons why many pulse‐like ground motions are not detected successfully by each of the benchmark methods.     

An operational-oriented approach to the assessment of low probability seismic ground motions for critical infrastructures

Extreme natural hazard events have the potential to cause significant disruption to critical infrastructure (CI) networks. Among them, earthquakes represent a major threat as sudden-onset events with limited, if any, capability of forecast, and high damage potential. In recent years, the increased exposure of interdependent systems has heightened concern, motivating the need for a framework for the management of these increased hazards. The seismic performance level and resilience of existing non-nuclear CIs can be analyzed by identifying the ground motion input values leading to failure of selected key elements. Main interest focuses on the ground motions exceeding the original design values, which should correspond to low probability occurrence. A seismic hazard methodology has been specifically developed to consider low-probability ground motions affecting elongated CI networks. The approach is based on Monte Carlo simulation, which allows for building long-duration synthetic earthquake catalogs to derive low-probability amplitudes. This approach does not affect the mean hazard values and allows obtaining a representation of maximum amplitudes that follow a general extreme-value distribution. This facilitates the analysis of the occurrence of extremes, i.e., very low probability of exceedance from unlikely combinations, for the development of, e.g., stress tests, among other applications. Following this methodology, extreme ground-motion scenarios have been developed for selected combinations of modeling inputs including seismic activity models (source model and magnitude-recurrence relationship), ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), hazard levels, and fractiles of extreme ground motion. The different results provide an overview of the effects of different hazard modeling inputs on the generated extreme motion hazard scenarios. This approach to seismic hazard is at the core of the risk analysis procedure developed and applied to European CI transport networks within the framework of the European-funded INFRARISK project. Such an operational seismic hazard framework can be used to provide insight in a timely manner to make informed risk management or regulating further decisions on the required level of detail or on the adoption of measures, the cost of which can be balanced against the benefits of the measures in question.     

Seismogenic potential and earthquake hazard assessment in the Tell Atlas of Algeria

Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.     

Local site effects on a high-pier railway bridge under tridirectional spatial excitations: Nonstationary stochastic analysis

This paper presents a theoretical nonstationary stochastic analysis scheme using pseudo-excitation method (PEM) for seismic analysis of long-span structures under tridirectional spatially varying ground motions, based on which the local site effects on structural seismic response are studied for a high-pier railway bridge. An absolute-response-oriented scheme of PEM in nonstationary stochastic analysis of structure under tridirectional spatial seismic motions, in conjunction with the derived mathematical scheme in modeling tridirectional nonstationary spatially correlated ground motions, is proposed to resolve the drawbacks of conventional indirect approach. To apply the proposed theoretical approach readily in stochastic seismic analysis of complex and significant structures, this scheme is implemented and verified in a general finite element platform, and is then applied to a high-pier railway bridge under spatially varying ground motions considering the local site effect and the effect of ground motion nonstationarity. Conclusions are drawn and can be applied in the actual seismic design and analysis of high-pier railway bridges under tridirectional nonstationary multiple excitations.     

Ground motion selection for simulation‐based seismic hazard and structural reliability assessment

This paper examines four methods by which ground motions can be selected for dynamic seismic response analyses of engineered systems when the underlying seismic hazard is quantified via ground motion simulation rather than empirical ground motion prediction equations. Even with simulation‐based seismic hazard, a ground motion selection process is still required in order to extract a small number of time series from the much larger set developed as part of the hazard calculation. Four specific methods are presented for ground motion selection from simulation‐based seismic hazard analyses, and pros and cons of each are discussed via a simple and reproducible illustrative example. One of the four methods (method 1 ‘direct analysis’) provides a ‘benchmark’ result (i.e., using all simulated ground motions), enabling the consistency of the other three more efficient selection methods to be addressed. Method 2 (‘stratified sampling’) is a relatively simple way to achieve a significant reduction in the number of ground motions required through selecting subsets of ground motions binned based on an intensity measure, IM. Method 3 (‘simple multiple stripes’) has the benefit of being consistent with conventional seismic assessment practice using as‐recorded ground motions, but both methods 2 and 3 are strongly dependent on the efficiency of the conditioning IM to predict the seismic responses of interest. Method 4 (‘generalized conditional intensity measure‐based selection’) is consistent with ‘advanced’ selection methods used for as‐recorded ground motions and selects subsets of ground motions based on multiple IMs, thus overcoming this limitation in methods 2 and 3. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A ground motion selection algorithm based on the generalized conditional intensity measure approach

An algorithm is presented for the selection of ground motions for use in seismic response analysis. The algorithm is based on the use of random realizations from the conditional multivariate distribution of ground motion intensity measures, IM|IM_j, obtained from the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach. The algorithm can be applied to the selection of both as-recorded amplitude-scaled and synthetic/simulated ground motions. A key feature is that the generality of the GCIM methodology allows for ground motion selection based on only explicit measures of the ground motions themselves, as represented by the various IM’s considered, rather than implicit causal parameters (e.g., source magnitude, source-to-site distance) which are presently used in other contemporary ground motion selection procedures. Several examples are used to illustrate the salient features of the algorithm, including: the effect of intensity measures considered; and the properties of ground motions selected for multiple exceedance probabilities. The flexibility of the proposed algorithm coupled with the GCIM methodology allows for objective and consistent ground motion selection as a natural extension of seismic hazard analysis.     

Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Newmark's method and stochastic ground motion simulation

Researchers and practitioners in earthquake engineering have recognized geographic information systems (GIS) to be a significant tool in modeling spatial phenomenon related to hazard and risk. GIS, as an engineering tool, has been primarily used for its spatial data storing and presentation features. Models are often simplified to be more compatible with the light computational capabilities of many GIS. If not simplified, heavy computations are generally performed external to the GIS. A prototype vector-based GIS was developed that employs a rigorous approach to Newmark's displacement method for assessing earthquake triggered landslide hazards. The rigorous Newmark's analysis provides desirable flexibility by allowing input of actual ground motions. The prototype hazard GIS incorporates a popular shot filtered noise technique for generating artificial ground motions. The rigorous approach was compared to a popular simplified approach for computing Newmark displacements. Distribution of regional displacements was found to be similar with the simplified approach giving more and larger extreme displacements. The rigorous approach is suitable for large scales to model various seismic scenarios and their effect on seismically induced landslide potential.     

A framework for the evaluation of ground motion selection and modification procedures

This study develops a framework to evaluate ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) procedures. The context is probabilistic seismic demand analysis, where response history analyses of a given structure, using ground motions determined by a GMSM procedure, are performed in order to estimate the seismic demand hazard curve (SDHC) for the structure at a given site. Currently, a GMSM procedure is evaluated in this context by comparing several resulting estimates of the SDHC, each derived from a different definition of the conditioning intensity measure (IM). Using a simple case study, we demonstrate that conclusions from such an approach are not always definitive; therefore, an alternative approach is desirable. In the alternative proposed herein, all estimates of the SDHC from GMSM procedures are compared against a benchmark SDHC, under a common set of ground motion information. This benchmark SDHC is determined by incorporating a prediction model for the seismic demand into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis calculations. To develop an understanding of why one GMSM procedure may provide more accurate estimates of the SDHC than another procedure, we identify the role of ‘IM sufficiency’ in the relationship between (i) bias in the SDHC estimate and (ii) ‘hazard consistency’ of the corresponding ground motions obtained from a GMSM procedure. Finally, we provide examples of how misleading conclusions may potentially be obtained from erroneous implementations of the proposed framework. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A generalized conditional intensity measure approach and holistic ground‐motion selection

A generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach is proposed for use in the holistic selection of ground motions for any form of seismic response analysis. The essence of the method is the construction of the multivariate distribution of any set of ground‐motion intensity measures conditioned on the occurrence of a specific ground‐motion intensity measure (commonly obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). The approach therefore allows any number of ground‐motion intensity measures identified as important in a particular seismic response problem to be considered. A holistic method of ground‐motion selection is also proposed based on the statistical comparison, for each intensity measure, of the empirical distribution of the ground‐motion suite with the ‘target’ GCIM distribution. A simple procedure to estimate the magnitude of potential bias in the results of seismic response analyses when the ground‐motion suite does not conform to the GCIM distribution is also demonstrated. The combination of these three features of the approach make it entirely holistic in that: any level of complexity in ground‐motion selection for any seismic response analysis can be exercised; users explicitly understand the simplifications made in the selected suite of ground motions; and an approximate estimate of any bias associated with such simplifications is obtained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generation of hazard-consistent ground motion

This paper presents an integrated approach for evaluating seismic hazard and establishing ground motion at a site. In this approach, we combine the advantage of probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses and generate synthetic ground motion by considering the characteristics of seismic source, path attenuation, and local soil condition. Furthermore, uncertainties in seismic and soil parameters are taken into account. The proposed approach can be used to establish site-specific ground motion for engineering applications.     

Relative energy zero ratio-based approach for identifying pulse-like ground motions

Pulse-like ground motions are capable of inflicting significant damage to structures. Efficient classification of pulse-like ground motion is of great importance when performing the seismic assessment in near-fault regions. In this study, a new method for identifying the velocity pulses is proposed, based on different trends of two parameters: the short-time energy and the short-time zero crossing rate of a ground motion record. A new pulse indicator, the relative energy zero ratio(REZR), is defined to qualitatively identify pulse-like features. The threshold for pulse-like ground motions is derived and compared with two other identification methods through statistical analysis. The proposed procedure not only shows good accuracy and efficiency when identifying pulse-like ground motions but also exhibits good performance for classifying records with high-frequency noise and discontinuous pulses. The REZR method does not require a waveform formula to express and fit the potential velocity pulses; it is a purely signal-based classification method. Finally, the proposed procedure is used to evaluate the contribution of pulse-like motions to the total input energy of a seismic record, which dramatically increases the seismic damage potential.     

The effect of causal parameter bounds in PSHA‐based ground motion selection

In this paper the effect of causal parameter bounds (e.g. magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, and site condition) on ground motion selection, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) results, is investigated. Despite the prevalent application of causal parameter bounds in ground motion selection, present literature on the topic is cast in the context of a scenario earthquake of interest, and thus specific bounds for use in ground motion selection based on PSHA, and the implications of such bounds, is yet to be examined. Thirty‐six PSHA cases, which cover a wide range of causal rupture deaggregation distributions and site conditions, are considered to empirically investigate the effects of various causal parameter bounds on the characteristics of selected ground motions based on the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach. It is demonstrated that the application of relatively ‘wide’ bounds on causal parameters effectively removes ground motions with drastically different characteristics with respect to the target seismic hazard and results in an improved representation of the target causal parameters. In contrast, the use of excessively ‘narrow’ bounds can lead to ground motion ensembles with a poor representation of the target intensity measure distributions, typically as a result of an insufficient number of prospective ground motions. Quantitative criteria for specifying bounds for general PSHA cases are provided, which are expected to be sufficient in the majority of problems encountered in ground motion selection for seismic demand analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of ground motion selection and modification procedures using synthetic ground motions

This study presents a novel approach for evaluating ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) procedures in the context of probabilistic seismic demand analysis. In essence, synthetic ground motions are employed to derive the benchmark seismic demand hazard curve (SDHC), for any structure and response quantity of interest, and to establish the causal relationship between a GMSM procedure and the bias in its resulting estimate of the SDHC. An example is presented to illustrate how GMSM procedures may be evaluated using synthetic motions. To demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach, two significantly different stochastic models for simulating ground motions are considered. By quantifying the bias in any estimate of the SDHC, the proposed approach enables the analyst to rank GMSM procedures in their ability to accurately estimate the SDHC, examine the sufficiency of intensity measures employed in ground motion selection, and assess the significance of the conditioning intensity measure in probabilistic seismic demand analysis. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.