Numerical Simulation of the Novaya Zemlya Bora

The development of the bora in case of strong southeastern wind in the area of Novaya Zemlya in the winter-spring of 2016 is simulated using the WRF-ARW numerical atmosphere circulation model with high spatial resolution. The features of wind speed and air temperature fields are considered which define the formation of the intensive near-surface flow, the bora, over the lee western slope of the mountain range. It is demonstrated that the bora development leads to the air temperature rise over the eastern part of the Barents Sea, to the increased surface heat fluxes, and to the formation of the cloudless zone over the sea westward of Novaya Zemlya. It was found that the main reason for the bora development is the high stability of the atmospheric boundary layer over the Kara Sea. It is shown that in case of western wind the Novaya Zemlya archipelago does not exert considerable influence on the air exchange in the Kara Sea area.     

A real data simulation of the Adriatic bora and the impact of mountain height on bora trajectories

Summary This study addresses simulation of the local bora wind and its properties as reflected on typical trajectories. Trajectory calculations are implemented in the Eta Model. The Eta Model has a vertical coordinate which permits a step-like representation of mountains and quasi-horizontal coordinate surfaces, the so-called eta coordinate. A realistic real data simulation of a bora wind case in achieved using the model with a 28 km horizontal resolution and 16 layers in the vertical. Numerical experiments with different mountain heights and shapes in the bora wind region are performed. These are motivated by observational indications and theoretically based expectations that a certain intermediate mountain elevation is required for generation of downslope windstorms with bora wind properties. Three-dimensional trajectories over various mountains mimicing real mountains but differing primarily in elevation are calculated and analysed. The maximum bora wind speed is predicted as expected through three-dimensional channels in the step mountain representations. The results illustrate and are in agreement with the observational evidence that mountain barriers of the elevation of about 1000 m are a necessary requirement for the occurrence of the bora-type downslope windstorms.With 10 Figures     

Numerical Simulation and Observational Analysis of the Bora of Pag’s Ribs

The severe bora case that lasted from 13 to 15 November 2004 has been selected for the analysis of the bora of Pag’s ribs, which occurs in the northern part of the eastern Adriatic coast over the Pag island area (Croatia). According to the measurements from automatic stations, the MM5 numerical model is successful in the 10-min mean wind speed prediction at 10-m height. The vertical analysis of the wind speed and potential temperature also gave satisfactory results. At the commencement of the bora the modelled wind had a magnitude of 20ms⁻¹ at 10-m height in the Pag island area, which sharply attenuated in the cross direction and to the open sea. In this way the model has proved successful in predicting the characteristics of the bora of Pag’s ribs. Potential vorticity (PV) at 600m has lower values within PV banners than during the developed bora. The consequence is a strong jet emanating from the nearest gap. The vertical cross-sections through the centre of the gap point out a permanent hydraulic-like flow. At the time of the bora of Pag’s ribs the highest modelled turbulent kinetic energy is found in the jump-like region above the inversion and within the boundary layer along the lower boundary, ranging from 6–8m² s⁻². It is concluded that the dissipation in the hydraulic jumps and the wave breaking regions are the reasons for PV generation.     

Gustiness of the Novorossiysk bora

The development of the Novorossiysk bora on February 5–6, 2010 is simulated with high spatial and temporal resolution using the regional model of atmospheric circulation. Considered are typical features of the wind speed and air temperature fields. Singled out are two regimes defining the type of the air flowing around the mountain ridge and the temporal variability (gustiness) of the surface wind speed.     

On a bora event simulated by the Eta Model

Summary ¶This study presents a numerical simulation of the bora wind as it occurs in form of a severe wind blowing down coastal mountains and over the Adriatic Sea. A typical cyclonic bora event, occurring during the period January 3–6, 1995, is simulated using a nested limited area model. An integration, with horizontal resolution of about 14km, and a nested one, with higher resolution, about 5.5km, are presented. The 1997 version of the Eta Model is used for both the lower resolution and the higher resolution runs. Numerous details of the simulation are found to be in good agreement with the understanding as well as the observational knowledge of the bora, thus supporting confidence in the realism of the results. In particular, features of the simulated flow are seen strongly indicative of some basic characteristics of the hydraulic model of the phenomenon, such as the mountain wave breaking and the upstream flow acceleration. Moreover, the increase in horizontal resolution, in combination with an improvement of the coastal SST information, led to a still improved realism of the low-level wind representation over the Adriatic Sea.Received December 31, 2001; revised March 25, 2002; accepted July 19, 2002 Published online: February 20, 2003     

Bases and algorithm for nowcasting of the bora

Summary A detailed outline of a nowcasting model of the bora is presented for the region NE of the Gulf of Trieste. An exhaustive knowledge of results of bora behavior and the findings by the frontal bora model are used to couple the mesoscale and nowcasting models to predict the beginning, strength and cessation of the bora.With 5 Figures     

Upper boundary of the bora as a stationary frontal surface

Summary For the inclined stationary internal atmospheric boundary as is the upper boundary of the bora flow down the lee-side slope of an orographic obstacle, the dynamic forces must be appropriately balanced, similar as at the atmospheric frontal surfaces. Starting from this idea, a model for the bora flow conditions was developed. Introducing some special suppositions, the model finally consists of four partial differential equations, which are solved numerically.Numerical experiments with the model by changing parameters such as friction and warm air stratification, as well as initial values of the flow: thickness, velocity, inclination and air mass temperature difference, show interesting results and finings. The shape of upper bora boundary and the distribution of the bora velocity above and downward the slope are graphycally presented, as they develop under the influence of different values of the mentioned parameters.With 5 Figures     

Bora und Mistral — Ein Vergleich

Zusammenfassung Es werden die beiden Windphänomene Bora und Mistral vergleichend gegenübergestellt. Die aerologischen Daten zeigen, daß dieBora bevorzugt von kontinentaler Kaltluft gespeist wird und in Richtung solcher Vorstöße weht. Sie ist als echter Fallwind gegen Änderungen der Bodendruckverteilung recht unempfindlich. DerMistral dagegen führt vorwiegend maritime Kaltluft zum Mittelmeer. Er weht meist senkrecht zu deren Verlagerungsrichtung. Für sein Auftreten ist ein bestimmtes Druckfeld im Küstengebiet erforderlich, derart, daß der Druckgradient eine ausgeprägte küstenparallele Komponente hat. Der zeitliche und räumliche Verlauf einzelner meteorologischer Elemente — insbesondere des Dampfdruckes —deutet an, daß der Mistral insgesamt kein Fallwind ist, sondern seine Geschwindigkeit einer im Bodenrelief begründeten Düsenwirkung verdankt.

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Summary The author compares the two wind phenomena bora and mistral. The aerological results show that the bora is essentially kept by cold continental air and pushed forward in the corresponding direction. Being a real katabatic wind it is indifferent to the distribution of the surface pressure. The mistral on the other hand sends predominantly maritime cold air to the Mediterranean. Mostly he blows perpendicularly to the direction of removal. A definite field of pressure is necessary for its appearance, in order that the pressure gradient has a distinct component parallel to the coast. The temporal and spatial march of the different meteorological elements, especially of the vapour pressure, indicates that the mistral is not a katabatic wind, but that his velocity is due to the jet effects of the orographic profile.

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Résumé L'auteur compare les deux phénomènes de la bora et du mistral. D'après les données aérologiques, la bora est essentiellement alimentée par de l'air froid continental et souffle dans la direction des poussées de cet air; en qualité de vent catabatique typique, elle se montre peu sensible à l'égard des changements du champ de pression au sol. Le mistral par contre amène en Méditerranée surtout de l'air froid maritime et souffle le plus souvent perpendiculairement à la trajectoire principale de cette masse; il apparaît lorsque le gradient régional de pression présente une nette composante parallèle à la côte. La distribution temporelle et spatiale de certaines grandeurs — en particulier la pression de vapeur — semble indiquer que le mistral n'est pas un vent catabatique, mais qu'il doit sa vitesse à un effet d'étranglement par le relief.

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Mit 3 Textabbildungen.     

近50年我国风向变化特征

利用我国基本和基准气象台站1956—2005年的一日4次风向和风速资料, 对近50年我国风向变化做了尝试性分析。分析发现:我国大部分地区年最大风向频率呈减小趋势, 其中西北、华南和西南地区最大风向频率减小趋势最为显著, 只有西部个别地区略有增加; 全国大部分地区年最大风向频率对应的风速均呈明显的减小趋势。同时, 年最大风向频率对应的风速减小趋势比年平均风速的减小趋势更为显著, 最大风向频率对应的风速减小是平均风速减小的主导因素; 我国冬季主要盛行的偏北风和夏季主要盛行的偏南风都呈明显的减小趋势。偏北风（冬季）和偏南风（夏季）的减小主要是亚洲冬季风和夏季风减弱造成的。     

对1972年厄尼诺过程中印度洋和太平洋赤道地区风场变化的分析

1972—1973年发生了一次强厄尼诺过程。已有不少人对这次厄尼诺过程中海洋要素和气象要素的变化进行了分析。这些讨论均将范围局限于太平洋地区。本文利用了COADS资料,对印度洋、太平洋赤道地区风场和海温场的变化作了综合分析,井对它们的变化与厄尼诺的关系进行了讨论。     

Relationship between wind power production and North Atlantic atmospheric circulation over the northeastern Iberian Peninsula

The wind power generated during winter months 1999–2003 at several wind farms in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula is investigated through the application of a statistical downscaling. This allows for an improved understanding of the wind power variability and its relationship to the large scale atmospheric circulation. It is found that 97 % of the variability of this non-climatic variable is connected to changes in the atmospheric circulation. The methodological uncertainty associated with multiple configurations of the statistical downscaling method replicates well the observed variability of the wind power, an indication of the robustness of the methodology to changes in the model set up. In addition, the use of the statistical model is extended out of the observational period providing an estimation of the long-term variability of wind power throughout the twentieth century. The extended wind power reconstruction shows large inter-annual and multidecadal variability. Alternative approaches to calibrate the empirical downscaling model using actual wind power observations have also been investigated. They involve the estimation of wind power changes from downscaled wind values and make use of several transfer functions based on the linearity between wind and wind energy. The performance of the latter approaches is similar to the direct downscaling of wind power and may allow wind power production estimations even in the absence of historical wind turbine records. These results can be of great interest for deriving medium/long term impact-oriented energy assessments, especially when wind power observations are missing as well as in the context of climate change scenarios.     

以风场和湿度的显著季节变化确定全球季风的分布

利用1958~2003年对流层相对湿度和风场(NCEP/NCAR再分析资料)的季节变化来定义盛行风的季节变化引起的天气气候明显变化的区域———季风区。通过分析表明,对流层低层的风场季节变率可以描述传统的季风区,但是在传统季风区以外,也有风场季节变率大的区域。利用中高层相对湿度的显著季节变化(热带地区季节变化大于20%,副热带地区大于10%,赤道地区以风向的季节变化大于90°)可以弥补风场季节变率的不足。由它们二者确定的季风区物理意义明确,有较大的合理性。     

Aerodynamic boundary-layer adjustment over a crop in neutral stability

An experimental study of the modification of the neutral wind profile as air flows to a rougher surface is presented. The analysis is based on wind profiles measured at four locations extending about 100 m downwind from the leading edge of a mature wheat crop. The form of the modified wind profile, and the rate of internal boundary-layer growth are analyzed in terms of a non-dimensional wind velocity. Friction velocities, based on wind-profile computations, are also examined at different points in the flow field. Boundary-layer growth was more rapid than expected, but could be approximated by a 4/5th power of the fetch if a roughness factor is included. It is suggested that simple height:fetch ratios, such as 1:100 be avoided, especially where large roughness-length changes are involved.     

Pseudo-global warming projections of extreme wave storms in complex coastal regions: the case of the Adriatic Sea

This numerical work aims to better understand the behavior of extreme Adriatic Sea wave storms under projected climate change. In this spirit, 36 characteristic events—22 bora and 14 sirocco storms occurring between 1979 and 2019, were selected and ran in evaluation mode in order to estimate the skill of the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite used in this study and to provide baseline conditions for the climate change impact. The pseudo-global warming (PGW) methodology—which imposes an additional climatological change to the forcing used in the evaluation simulations, was implemented, for the very first time, for a coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere model and used to assess the behavior of the selected storms under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas projections. The findings of this experiment are that, on the one hand, the AdriSC model is found capable of reproducing both the Adriatic waves associated with the 36 storms and the northern Adriatic surges occurring during the sirocco events and, on the other hand, the significant wave heights and peak periods are likely to decrease during all future extreme events but most particularly during bora storms. The northern Adriatic storm surges are in consequence also likely to decrease during sirocco events. As it was previously demonstrated that the Adriatic extreme wind-wave events are likely to be less intense in a future warmer climate, this study also proved the validity of applying the PGW methodology to coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere models at the coastal and nearshore scales.

     

台风莫拉克 (0908) 影响期间近地层风特性

通过对台风莫拉克 (0908) 影响范围内的33座测风塔观测资料的分析可知:台风莫拉克越靠近陆地,风场的非对称性越明显,其行进方向的左侧测风塔风向呈逆时针旋转,右侧测风塔风向顺时针旋转。在远离台风莫拉克的地方风向稳定,湍流强度变化较平稳;在台风莫拉克登陆点附近,风向、风速和湍流强度均会出现突变。台风莫拉克影响期间,湍流强度与风速的关系未出现IEC标准曲线那样随风速增大稳定减小,其I₁₅达B级和A级及以上的平均湍流强度会在风速7~17 m·s-1形成一个峰值;无论南风或北风,风速越大,各层湍流强度差异趋于减小,同等风速、高度的湍流强度偏南大风均大于偏北大风。位于台风莫拉克登陆点北侧测风塔湍流强度随风速的增加先减小后增大,最终各高度全部超过IEC标准A级曲线,而位于南侧测风塔湍流强度随风速的变化比北侧小,并随风速增大趋于标准A级曲线;另外北侧测风塔湍流强度大于南侧,且各高度偏北大风湍流强度之间的差异比南侧相应风向明显,表明北侧垂直方向的扰动更强。台风莫拉克阵风系数为1.2~1.7,其随高度变化与地形有关,一般情况下随高度升高而减小,在复杂地形条件下不符合随高度升高减小的规律。     

台风“飞燕”登陆前后的运动特征

通过对2001年台风“飞燕”登陆前的雷达回波和地面加密观测资料的分析表明：兴化湾地形作用使微型小台风近海突然加速折向兴化湾移动，微型小台风在临近登陆时风速将出现跳跃突变，其隐蔽性的灾害特征突出。指出制作微型小台风登陆前风速的定时定量预报的必要性。     

凉山州风资源分布特征分析

利用凉山州17站近40年10m风塔及部分区域站风的观测资料,对风速的年际变化、月变化、日变化及代表站点的风速频率、有效风时数、平均风能密度进行了计算和统计,并结合地形地貌进行了分析。结果表明:凉山州风资源地形效应显著、季节性强、风向稳定。以德昌为代表的安宁河沿线风资源较为丰富,是风资源可利用区;盐源、普格、喜德县境内一些风速较大的平坝、山口、河谷为风资源季节性可利用区;雷波、金阳、木里等县的大部分地区风资源贫乏。      

利用多普勒雷达径向速度提取台风环境风场信息

应用蓝金模式模拟了纯气旋性旋转的多普勒雷达径向速度特征,还模拟了不同环境风向和吹向台风中心的辐合风对台风多普勒速度特征的影响。在此基础上,提出了雷达实测台风速度的特征和不同环境风向的速度数值模拟图进行比较,从而提取出相应环境风信息的方法,并应用这种环境风信息来判断台风的移动路径。通过对台风实例分析,特别是在台风发生转折的关键时刻,该方法都能够较准确地判断环境风转折的多普勒速度特征。应用多普勒雷达径向速度图像与不同环境风向模拟图像进行比较的方法,能够实时(雷达观测时间间隔仅为6 min)监测到环境气流的方向及其变化,比较准确地监测台风的移动路径,这是其他大尺度气象资料难以做到的。分析表明:环境风转向变化的现象在前,台风发生转折的现象在后,对台风路径的短时预报具有一定应用价值。     

风电场对气候变化影响研究进展

综述了国际评估风电场对局地和全球气候变化的短期和较长期的可能影响,并且将其影响与人类排放的影响作简单的对比.大量的观测和数值模拟研究表明,风电场的运行明显减小下游风速,同时随局地近地层稳定度的不同也造成下游温度明显上升或下降.一些数值模拟研究表明,如果全球建立大量大型风电场,例如假定全球使用风能占总能源10％以上,即全...