Non-parametric Data Analysis of Low-latitude Auroras and Naked-eye Sunspots in the Medieval Epoch

We have studied solar activity by analyzing naked-eye sunspot observations and aurorae borealis observed at latitudes below \(45^{\circ}\). We focused on the medieval epoch by considering the non-telescopic observations of sunspots from AD 974 to 1278 and aurorae borealis from AD 965 to 1273 that are reported in several Far East historical sources, primarily in China and Korea. After setting selection rules, we analyzed the distribution of these individual events following the months of the Gregorian calendar. In December, an unusual peak is observed with data recorded in both China and Japan, but not within Korean data.In extreme conditions, where the collection of events is reduced and discontinuous in some temporal intervals, we used the non-parametric kernel method. We opted for the plug-in approach of Sheather and Jones instead of cross-validation techniques to estimate the probability density functions (pdf) of the events. We obtained optimized bandwidths of 13.29 years for sunspots and 9.06 years for auroras, and 95% confidence intervals. The pdf curves exhibit multiple peaks occurring at quasi-periodic times with a very high positive correlation, \(r_{\mathrm{tt}} = 0.9958\), between the dates of occurrence of the nine extrema of sunspots and auroras. Furthermore, these extrema enabled us to evaluate mean periods at two standard deviations, \(66.77 \pm 7.25~\mbox{years}\) for sunspots and \(65.06 \pm 9.36~\mbox{years}\) for auroras. The accuracy of the average periods, 62.00 years for sunspots and 61.80 years for auroras, was improved by the use of the power spectrum method. The percentage of the total number of non-observed sunspots, using redundant data, from AD 1151 to 1275 was estimated to be greater than or equal to 78%.     

Mid-latitude pulsating auroras

Pulsating auroras were recorded at Bedford, Massachusetts, cgm lat. 55.4°, 24 March 1969 during a worldwide magnetic storm, the only known published observations of pulsating auroras at such low magnetic latitudes. Spectral density analysis of several minutes of 5577A pulsations indicated a dominant period of 7.2 sec at 0300 EST. The following characteristics were noted: (1) occurrence during a negative bay in H; (2) location toward the equatorial boundary of the auroral display; (3) occurred a few hours after local midnight; (4) characteristic period of 6–10 sec; (5) quasi-sinusoidal or superposition of sinusoids rather than isolated pulses; (6) modulation of the background intensity by 15–30 per cent. These characteristics have previously been observed by others in pulsating auroras in the auroral oval. Other mid-latitude geophysical measurements at the same time show similarities to typical auroral oval behavior. These observations indicate that the auroral oval expanded during the worldwide magnetic storm until the boundary of the auroral oval was near cgm latitude 55°. If this observation of one mid-latitude pulsating aurora is in general valid, then the agreement of the characteristic period of pulsating auroras when the oval has expanded to mid-latitudes with the period of pulsating auroras when the oval is not expanded should be useful in distinguishing between proposed source mechanisms for these pulsating auroras.     

Flickering, a 10-cps fluctuation within bright auroras

Visually and with image orthicon television systems, a 10 ± 3 cps intensity variation has been observed in bright homogeneous auroras just prior to and during the breakup. It has been observed simultaneously at conjugate locations in the northern and southern hemispheres and at several other locations in the northern hemisphere. This phenomenon is called flickering; it has characteristics which clearly distinguish it from other types of pulsing auroras.     

Intensity ratio I(5577)/I(3914) in morning and evening pulsating aurora

The ratio of the intensity of the oxygen green line at 5577 A to that of the N₂⁺ First Negative band (0, 0) at 3914 A in morning and evening pulsating aurora has been observed using a ground-based scanning photometer which scans the entire sky in 2.6 sec with 2° resolution.The ratio I(5577)/I(3914), after corrections for scattering and extinction made on the basis of hemispheric averages of the intensities at each wavelength, is up to 50% lower in the pulsations than in the surrounding diffuse aurora and in pre-breakup discrete auroras. In morning pulsations this ratio showed systematic decreases with time and with increasing intensity.We report here what we believe to be the first quantitative intensity measurements made of the rare phenomenon evening pulsations. These also show a reduced ratio and a tendency for the ratio to decrease with time.The range of previously published values of the 5577 A time constant in pulsating auroras would lead to ratio variations of the same magnitude as those reported here, suggesting that quenching effects may be more important than atmospheric composition changes in determining intensity ratios within the altitude range of pulsating auroras.     

Discrete, continuous and diffuse auroras

It is pointed out that there are a number of important differences between discrete auroras and diffuse auroras in the midnight sector. The differences are listed in a tabular form. The identification of the corresponding regions in the magnetotail is an urgent future task.     

Precipitation of auroral particles in the central polar cap during a sudden commencement magnetic storm

All-sky camera observations from two stations in the inner (northern) polar cap and an auroral zone station are combined with photometer records from the polar cap station Nord in a study of the brilliant auroral display following the ssc of the storm of 7 November 1970. This display is the large, poleward expanding bulge of a substorm triggered by the ssc. It is composed of brilliant discrete forms embedded in low-intensity diffuse electron and proton aurora. The poleward edge of the diffuse electron aurora is 5° north of the discrete auroras and 3° north of the proton aurora. The intensity of the discrete aurora varies as the strength of the auroral electrojet as shown by magnetograms from auroral zone stations. Succeeding the retreating display a subvisible low-energy electron precipitation, which may be identified as the polar squall (Winningham and Heikkila, 1974) is observed over the polar cap during the main phase of the storm.In the early morning sector already existing diffuse auroras broaden towards the equator from the time of the ssc and at least during the following half hour.Ssc-triggered displays have been found (Feldstein, 1959) to withdraw from the inner polar cap as the initial (positive H) phase of the storm ends. A comparison of the records from seven low-latitude stations shows that during this particular storm the positive phase appears to be composed by two overlapping disturbances, i.e. the proper initial phase, which is generally thought to be due to compression of the inner magnetosphere and a series of positive bays accompanying the negative bays in auroral latitudes. These positive bays are observable over a great range of longitudes with a maximum of amplitude near midnight. As judged from the dayside magnetograms the initial (compression) phase ends at an early stage of the substorm. The observed coincidence between the withdrawal of the display and the cessation of the positive H phase of the storm is a consequence of the fact that the second component—the positive bays—and the auroral display over the polar cap are both signatures of the substorm activity.     

Long-term fluctuations of solar activity during the last thousand years

Long-term variations of solar activity during the last thousand years were derived from historical observations (by the naked eye) of large sunspots and from records of auroras at latitudes < 55°. The results shown in Figure 1 indicate very good agreement as regards the occurrence of maxima and minima of all three indices (sunspots, auroras, ¹⁴C), and even between secondary fluctuations of the ¹⁴C-curve, which were usually neglected in the presentation of the smoothed curve.     

Auroral and magnetic variations in the polar cusp and cleft — Signatures of magnetopause boundary-layer dynamics

By combining continuous ground-based observations of polar cleft/cusp auroras and local magnetic variations with electromagnetic parameters obtained from satellites in polar orbit (low-altitude cleft/cusp) and in the magnetosheath/interplanetary space, different electrodynamic processes in the polar cleft/cusp have been investigated. One of the more controversial questions in this field is related to the observed shifts in latitude of cleft/cusp auroras and the relationship with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation, local magnetic disturbances (DP2 and DPY modes) and magnetospheric substorms. A new approach which may contribute to clarifying these complicated relationships — simultaneous ground-based observations of the midday and evening-midnight sectors of the auroral oval—is illustrated. A related topic is the spatial relationship between the cleft/cusp auroras and the ionospheric convection currents. A characteristic feature of the polar cusp and cleft regions during negative IMFB _Z is repeated occurrence of certain short-lived auroral structures which seem to move in accordance with the local convection pattern. Satellite measurements of particle precipitation, magnetic field and ion drift components permit detailed investigations of the electrodynamics of these cusp/cleft structures. Information on electric field components, Birkeland currents, Poynting flux, height-integrated Pedersen conductivity, and Joule heat dissipation rate has been derived. These observations are discussed in relation to existing models of temporal plasma injections from the magnetosheath.Paper dedicated to Professor Hannes Alfvén on the occasion of his 80th birthday, 30 May 1988.     

Historical Auroras in the 990s: Evidence of Great Magnetic Storms

A significant carbon-14 enhancement has recently been found in tree rings for the year 994, suggesting an extremely strong and brief cosmic ray flux event. The origin of this particular cosmic ray event has not been confirmed, but one possibility is that it might be of solar origin. Contemporary historical records of low-latitude auroras can be used as supporting evidence of intense solar activity around that time. We investigate previously reported as well as new records that have been found in contemporary observations from the 990s to determine potential auroras. Records of potential red auroras in late 992 and early 993 were found around the world, i.e. in the Korean Peninsula, Saxonian cities in modern Germany, and the Island of Ireland, suggesting the occurrence of an intense geomagnetic storm driven by solar activity.     

Historical Space Climate Data from Finland: Compilation and Analysis

We have compiled archived geomagnetic observations from the Helsinki magnetic observatory as well as visual sightings of auroral occurrence in Finland. The magnetic database comprises about 2 000 000 observations of H- and D-components measured during 1844–1909 with time resolution of 10 min to 1 h. In addition, magnetic observations carried out in the First and Second Polar Years in Finland have been recompiled. Magnetic activity indices (three-hour K-and daily Ak-figures) have been derived from the magnetic observations. Comparisons between the Finnish indices and simultaneous global aa-index (starting in 1868) show a good mutual correlation. The Helsinki activity index series can be used as a (pseudo) extension of the aa-index series for about two solar cycles 1844d –1868. On the annual level the correlation coefficient is about 0.9 during the overlapped time interval 1868–1897. The auroral database consists of about 20 000 single observations observed in Finland since the year 1748. The database of visual auroras has been completed by auroral occurrence (AO) index data derived from the Finnish all-sky camera recordings during 1973 –1997 at several sites in Lapland. The AO-index reveals both spatial and temporal variations of auroras from diurnal to solar cycle time scales in different space weather conditions.     

The auroral oval during the substorm development

The direction of motion of the auroral forms in several sectors of the auroral oval during substorms is studied. The creation phase is characterized by the equatorward displacement of the luminous region in evening (15–21 LT) and in day (09–15 LT) hours, while individual forms in the luminous region drift mainly poleward with a mean velocity of 230 m/sec in day hours and equatorward with the mean velocity of 230 m/sec in evening hours. The equatorial shift of the luminous region correlates well with the B_Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The onset of the displacement coincides with the southward B_Z-rotation and is accompanied by auroral intensity increase for about 10–20 min.During the expansive and recovery phases the day auroras drift poleward with mean velocities of 330 and 300 m/sec, respectively. In the evening sector the individual auroral forms drift both poleward and equatorward during the expansive phase and drift mainly towards the pole during the recovery phase with a mean velocity of 200 m/sec. In the morning sector characteristics of the motion of the individual auroral forms are more complicated than in the other sectors. The well defined shifts of the luminous region are not discovered. The possible relation between the motions of individual auroral forms with the magnetosphere convection is discussed.     

The day-sector polar F-layer during a magnetospheric substorm

Ionogram and all-sky camera data have been recorded on the Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories' Flying Ionospheric Laboratory in the day sector of the auroral oval under conditions of darkness. The airborne measurements show that the polar F-layer irregularity zone, which is characterized on ionograms by a generally non-retarded and spread F type echo, exhibits meridional motions similar to the day-sector auroras. The polar F-layer irregularity zone and the day-sector auroras move equatorward and then move poleward in harmony with the development and decay of a magnetospheric substorm. We suggest that the polar cusp also moves in essentially the same fashion.     

Effects of interplanetary magnetic field and magnetospheric substorm variations on the dayside aurora

Photometric observations of dayside auroras are compared with simultaneous measurements of geomagnetic disturbances from meridian chains of stations on the dayside and on the nightside to document the dynamics of dayside auroras in relation to local and global disturbances. These observations are related to measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from the satellites ISEE-1 and 3. It is shown that the dayside auroral zone shifts equatorward and poleward with the growth and decay of the circum-oval/polar cap geomagnetic disturbance and with negative and positive changes in the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (B_z). The geomagnetic disturbance associated with the auroral shift is identified as the DP2 mode. In the post-noon sector the horizontal disturbance vector of the geomagnetic field changes from southward to northward with decreasing latitude, thereby changing sign near the center of the oval precipitation region. Discrete auroral forms are observed close to or equatorward of the ΔH = 0 line which separates positive and negative H-component deflections. This reversal moves in latitude with the aurora and it probably reflects a transition of the electric field direction at the polar cap boundary. Thus, the discrete auroral forms observed on the dayside are in the region of sunward-convecting field lines. A model is proposed to explain the equatorward and poleward movement of the dayside oval in terms of a dayside current system which is intensified by a southward movement of the IMF vector. According to this model, the Pedersen component of the ionospheric current is connected with the magnetopause boundary layer via field-aligned current (FAC) sheets. Enhanced current intensity, corresponding to southward auroral shift, is consistent with increased energy extraction from the solar wind. In this way the observed association of DP2 current system variations and auroral oval expansion/contraction is explained as an effect of a global, ‘direct’ response of the electromagnetic state of the magnetosphere due to the influence of the solar wind magnetic field. Estimates of electric field, current, and the rate of Joule heat dissipation in the polar cap ionosphere are obtained from the model.     

The Maunder Minimum and the Sun as the Possible Source of Particles Creating Increased Abundance of the <Superscript>14</Superscript>C Carbon Isotope

The Maunder Minimum was the time during the second part of the 17th century, nominally from 1645 to 1717 AD, when unusually low numbers of sunspots were observed. On the basis of numerous recorded observations of auroras in the early 18th century, the end of the Minimum could be regarded as around 1700, but details of sunspot observations by Jan Heweliusz (Heweliusz, Machina Coelestis, 1679), John Flamsteed and Philippe de La Hire in 1684 allow us to interpret the Maunder Minimum as the period without a significant cessation of activity. This Minimum was also recognized in ¹⁴C data from trees which grew during the second part of 17th century. The variation in the production rate of radioactive carbon isotope ¹⁴C is due to modulation of the cosmic ray flux producing it by the changing level of solar activity and solar magnetic flux. Stronger magnetic fields in the solar wind make it more difficult for cosmic rays to reach the Earth, causing a drop in the production rate of ¹⁴C. However, more detailed analyses of ¹⁴C data indicate that the highest isotope abundances do not occur at the time of sunspot minima, as would be expected on the basis of modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar magnetic field, but two years after the sunspot number maximum. This time difference (or phase delay) can be accounted for if in fact there are both solar and non-solar cosmic ray contributions. Solar flares could also contribute high-energy particles and produce ¹⁴C and are generally not most frequent at the time of the highest sunspot numbers in the cycle.     

Some auroral properties from far ultraviolet observations

Recent far ultraviolet spectra of four nightside auroras observed with the extreme ultraviolet (e.u.v.) spectrometer abroad the STP 78?1 satellite (Bowyer et al., 1981) are discussed in terms of two secondary electron flux distribution models. One of these is based on calculations published by Rees and Maeda (1973) and the other on electron flux observations. Using the 1084 Å NII line as the norm, the relative intensities of several lines in the range 900–1400 Å could be fitted equally well by either model, indicating that some of these emission ratios are somewhat independent of the energy dependence of the secondary electron flux. The ratio of the NI 1243 Å to 1084 Å emission is seen to yield an effective correlation for the other observed emissions and a reasonably consistent estimate of the penetration depth of the aurora.     

The continuity of the auroral oval in the afternoon sector

United States Air Force DMSP satellite auroral images and South Pole auroral all-sky camera data are presented to provide new direct evidence that the afternoon sector auroras lie within a continuous oval belt. An example is also presented to illustrate that afternoon substorm auroras occur within the auroral oval configuration.     

Solar Activity in the Past: From Different Proxies to Combined Reconstruction

Using proxy series that includes ancient observations of sunspots and auroras, concentrations of cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be, we reconstruct sunspot activity level since 850 AD to the present. As a main reference index of solar activity we use the Wolf sunspot numbers, which, as we demonstrate, reflect true levels of the activity in the 18th and 19th centuries better than the Group sunspot numbers. We construct a set of linear and nonlinear inductive models, which are in a good agreement with each other and reproduce the known global solar activity extrema. According to our results, amplitudes of the global maxima are in intermediate positions in respect to estimations of other authors. It follows from our reconstructions that the global maximum of the 20th century is not much higher, if at all, than others.     

Optical detection of electrostatic ion cyclotron waves in the auroral plasma

Spectral analysis of recent photometric observations has revealed the existence of narrow frequency band pulsations in the brightness of some auroras. Peaks in the power spectra, between 25 and 32 Hz have been observed. We suggest that these observations are associated with electrostatic ion cyclotron waves, which are excited when the relative drift between ions and electrons due to field aligned (Birkeland) currents, exceeds a certain critical value.     

Polar aurora effects associated with solar flares

The behaviour of the polar auroras in the dark part of the auroral oval during the solar flares has been examined. For the analysis 29 solar flares during spring and autumn periods when a part of the polar cap was sunlit were selected. It has been found that a sharp decreasing of the auroral arc luminosity occurred just after the solar flare onsets. Auroral arcs broke up into patches and in most cases disappeared in 2–3 min. Bright discrete auroras appeared again as a rule close to the maximum phase of the solar flares. The duration of polar aurora effects was typically from 4 to 13 min with median value of about 8 min. These effects have been observed inside the interval 18.00-04.00 M.L.T. during periods both of magnetic quiet and disturbance.For the large set of data magnetic field variations in the sunlit polar cap after the solar flare onset have been investigated. A simple model of the auroral processes for the qualitative explanation of the observed phenomenon has been suggested.     

Solar Wind Control of Jupiter's H3Auroras

A program of observations of Jupiter's H⁺₃auroras was conducted during the first 4 months of 1992, a period that spanned the Ulysses encounter. Daily variations of auroral intensity are small in magnitude (∼20%) and well correlated with variations in the solar wind ram pressure arriving at Jupiter. A much larger (factor of 3) time variation is observed to occur on a time scale of approximately 2 months. During the first 2 months of observation, the inferred total intrinsic intensity of the northern aurora exceeded that of the southern aurora by a factor of 2. Throughout the latter 2 months, characterized by less intense auroral activity, the intensity of the northern aurora was comparable to that of the southern aurora.