地下水资源系统经济管理模型研究

以乌鲁木齐市柴窝堡供水水源地为例，运用系统分析方法和工程技术经济学原理，从水源地地下水可持续开发利用及水资源与社会经济环境协调发展的角度，探讨水源地合理开发与优化管理问题．研究过程中，在分析研究水源地地下水形成与分布规律的基础上，建立了水源地水地质概念模型与地下水流数学模型：利用长序列观测资料，对地下水流数学模型进行了识别与验证．模型识别与验证中，在进行降速场、梯度场两场同时拟合的情况下，又将水均衡分析结果结合起来，提高了模型的仿真性，保证了利用模型进行预测的可靠性．在此基础上，应用响应矩阵法，将最优化模型与模拟模型相耦合，从水源地开发与社会经济环境协调发展的观点出发，以供水净收益最大为目标函数，建立了水源地地下水资源系统经济管理模型．最后，利用有限元方法，对管理模型运行后产生的方案进行了模拟预测，评价了系统地下水的A级允许开采量．     

人工神经网络在水源地影响评价中的应用

为了评价水源地开采过程中对周围地下水环境的影响，本文运用BP神经网络模型建立了有4个输入、2个输出的三层网络模型，通过BP网络学习训练，得到水源地的BP网络模型，并运用该模型预测了在不同条件下因水源地开采所引起的降落漏斗秒地下水补给量，计算表明，BP神经网络用于模拟地下水系统简便，实用，能很好地预测地下水动态变化情况。     

新民市垃圾场渗滤液对拟建柳河水源地影响的预测分析

为预测新民市垃圾场渗滤液对拟建柳河水源地的影响,建立研究区域地下水的水流模型和溶质运移模型.采用 feflow 软件利用校正后的模型分两种取水方案预测了水源地开采 20 年后垃圾场渗滤液对拟建水源地的影响,并据此预测提出了合理的取水方案.     

鄂尔多斯盆地东北部天桥岩溶地下水区域模型与嵌套模型

如何评价陕北能源化工基地黄河西岸非完整岩溶水系统的地下水资源是一个难点。通过建立区域模型（1km×km）和嵌套水源地模型（100m×100m）,利用大尺度的区域模型为小尺度的精细水源地模型提供边界水头。通过6种不同的开采方案模拟的结果,分析了黄河西岸水源地开采对周边水源地和区域地下水系统的影响,确定了天桥岩溶系统中各子泉域之间的相互关系和万家寨水库蓄水对地下水循环补给的影响,评价黄河西岸水源地可开采资源量为60×104m3/d。     

平顶山市供水水源地优化管理问题的研究

本文以系统理论的观点和方法为指导,对平顶山市城市供水水源地——沙、湛河河间地块水源地的地下水优化管理问题进行了研究。文章论述了该地下水资源系统的构成特征和辨识方法,并重点讨论了用“响应矩阵法”建立地下水优化管理模型的前提条件和具体方法;最后依据所建立的管理模型分不同情况对水源地的优化开发与管理问题进行了研究,探讨了该水源地地下水资源的最佳开发利用与管理方案。     

基于模糊综合评判的高原盆地城市水源地脆弱性评价

根据高原盆地城市水源地脆弱性内涵, 评价指标可量化性及不同水源地之间可比性, 选取了水源地水文气象、生态环境、水源污染和地表扰动状况4个方面14个指标, 构建了高原盆地城市水源地脆弱性指标体系.基于高原盆地城市水源地复杂性和指标评价标准界线的模糊性, 采用层次分析法确定指标权重, 应用模糊综合评判法建立评价模型, 运用所建立的评价模型对昆明市松华坝水源地脆弱性进行了评价.结果表明, 昆明市松华坝水源地为中度脆弱. 其中, 水文气象因子、水源污染因子处于中度脆弱状态, 生态环境因子处于轻度脆弱状态, 地表扰动因子介于轻度脆弱与中度脆弱状态之间.     

大武水源地岩溶地下水开采动态数值模拟分析

综合考虑大武水源地复杂的水文地质条件,运用三维数值模拟技术,采用断层带状剖分方法,在大武水源地建立了地下水流动的三维数值模型。模型采用任意多边形网格有限差分法求解,把断层带作为单独的水文地质参数分区参与模型运算,较好地刻画了断层的性质,模拟计算水位结果与观测水位资料拟合检验效果良好。为了保证大武水源地岩溶地下水能够合理的持续开发利用,在此模型基础上和在不考虑上游太河水库放水条件下,模拟计算得出了平水段和枯水段水源地地下水的允许最大可开采量分别为39. 7万m3 /d和26. 2万m3 /d      

邹城市唐村—西龙河水源地岩溶水资源数值模拟

邹城市唐村—西龙河水源地位于郭里集单斜东缘。该单斜区已建有多个水源地,目前处于一种供稍大于求的弱平衡状态,正确评价唐村—西龙河新建水源地开采量十分重要。在深入分析研究区及周边水文地质条件基础上,分别按照平水年和枯水年设置开采方案,采用Visual MODFLOW地下水流数值模拟模型软件,对唐村—西龙河水源地岩溶水资源进行了精细的数值模拟,经模型识别和检验之后,对水源地岩溶地下水可开采量作出了评价,通过分析比较,选定了方案三。在水位约束评价时,考虑了实际存在的“井损”问题,因而,评价结果更趋于客观、实际。模拟结果可以作为水源地岩溶地下水可开采量的依据。     

饮用水水源地保护区划分研究——以山东羊庄盆地地下水水源地为例

根据羊庄盆地水文地质条件和规划水源地开发利用状况,采用Visual Modflow4.0及其中的MT3DMS模块分别建立地下水水流和水质模型,在水流模型预测水源地未来开采形成的稳定流场环境下运行水质模型,模拟计算污染质在规定时间内到达水源地捕获带的位置,运移100d的范围划定为水源地一级保护区,运移1000d的范围划定为水源地二级保护区,二级保护区以外至羊庄盆地流域边界划定为水源地准保护区;同时结合当地环境条件提出了对一级保护区实行圈网管理,在各级保护区重要边界点设立界桩、界牌、禁止在区内建设严重性污染企业等环境管理措施和布设水环境监测点,加强上游城镇及工业污水、废水处理效果监测等污染防治对策。     

0-1整数规划在水源地开采井最优布局中的应用研究

新建水源地如何最优布井,对水源地开采运行具有重大影响。本文介绍了0-1整数规划及其求解方法,并结合一个实际问题进行说明。作者应用0-1整数规划方法建立了北京密怀顺平原区拟建水源地最优布井的地下水管理模型,采用响应矩阵法将地下水模拟模型和管理模型相耦合,运用分支-定界法求出最优井位,并将优化井位与原拟定井位的计算结果进行了对比。结果表明,0-1整数规划能很好地解决最优布井问题,对水源地规划、基坑降水、地下水人工回灌等方面都具有一定的指导意义。     

迁安盆地地下水资源有限元数值模拟与评价

依据迁安盆地的水文地质模型,建立数学模型。通过有限单元法对迁安盆地内水源地的地下水资源评价,并对其开采量和开采后的水位进行预测,同时与水均衡法求解的结果进行比较,以论证该地区地下水资源开采的保证程度,并对中长期取水要求提出合理的方案。     

基于非等间距序列GM(1,1)模型的地下水温度预测

地下水温度是地下水源热泵系统设计中的一个重要参数,它关系到热泵系统换热器的选型计算以及整个系统的优化设计,所以在地热井勘探和使用过程中,通过定期监测各层段地下水的温度,预测地下水温度随深度的变化规律,为地下水源热泵设计、运行、成井工艺等提供参考资料,具有非常重要的实用价值。基于灰色理论基础,应用西安市泾河开发区两口观测井30～108m的实测水温作为原始数据,构建非等间距序列GM(1,1)预测模型,预测其128～150m的水温变化情况。结果表明:模拟结果与实际值拟合好,该模型能够较好地预测地下水温度随埋藏深度的变化趋势,是分析地下水温垂向变化趋势的一种新途径。     

Dupuit模型的改进——具入渗补给

Dupuit（1863年）提出的模型是“圆岛状含水层稳定井流模型”,这个模型只有侧向湖海边界条件,而不涉及上边界降水入渗补给条件。因此,Dupuit模型只能在旱季用于地下水井流试验求取含水系统的参数,而不能够用于预测。文章发展Dupuit潜水井流模型,考虑地面均匀稳定入渗补给（蒸发排泄示为其负值）作用。以质量守衡原理为基础,假定渗流服从Darcy定律并满足Dupuit徦定,建立极坐标下的地下水流微分方程,再依边界条件建立相应的流量方程和水位方程。这些方程为具地面入渗补给条件下井流试验求取水文地质参数以及预测相应条件下地下水抽水的效果,提供了基础条件。讨论了引入Dupuit假定对本问题解析研究可以降维（略去z变量）带来好处的同时,在地下水分水岭附近及抽水井附近可能出现偏离Dupuit假定,建议在抽水试验求取含水层参数时,观测孔的部署要尽量回避这些区段。     

北京房山应急水源地地下水数值模拟及河流渗漏量预测

以北京房山岩溶水应急水源地为例,采用等效连续介质体概化地下水流系统,建立地下水流数值模型,评价地下水源汇项,分析地下水系统特征。运用MODFLOW中的河流（渠）子程序包,刻画地表河流和泉水与地下水的交换关系。经参数识别和验证,计算结果与实测数据拟合较好,能够比较准确的模拟水源地岩溶水系统。模拟和预测结果表明,水源地地区地下水与地表水联系密切,应急开采后,地下水系统由向河流排泄转变为河流渗漏补给地下水,可为应急水源地合理开发利用提供科学依据。     

Groundwater resources management under environmental constraints in Shiroishi of Saga plain, Japan

A sinking of the land surface due to the pumping of groundwater has long been recognized as an environmental issue in the Shiroishi plain of Saga, Japan. Land subsidence can have several negative economic and social implications such as changes in groundwater and surface water flow patterns, restrictions on pumping in land subsidence prone areas, localized flooding, failure of well casings as well as shearing of structures. To minimize such an environmental effect, groundwater management should be considered in this area. In this study, a new integrated numerical model that integrates a three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model coupled with a one-dimensional soil consolidation model and a groundwater optimization model was developed to simulate groundwater movement, to predict ground settlement and to search for optimal safe yield of groundwater without violating physical, environmental and socio-economic constraints. It is found that groundwater levels in the aquifers greatly vary from season to season in response to the varying climatic and pumping conditions. Consequently, land subsidence has occurred rapidly throughout the area with the Shiroishi plain being the most prone. The predicted optimal safe yield of the pumping amount is about 5 million m³. The study also suggests that pumping with this optimal amount will minimize the rate of land subsidence over the entire area. An erratum to this article can be found at     

基于回归分析的地下水水质预测研究

影响地下水水质变化的因素较多,且地下水由于水体循环周期比较长,自净能力比较脆弱,地下水一旦受到污染,就很难恢复原状,并且会对生态环境造成严重影响,直接危害人类健康,因此应对地下水资源进行监测,建立动态预测模型。根据地下水水质与其影响因素之间存在的相关关系,运用回归分析理论和方法,建立了一个基于回归分析法的地下水水质动态预测模型,并将该模型用于研究区地下水水质的动态预测。结果表明预测精度较高,建立的模型较符合研究区的实际情况。     

Application of Numerical Modeling for Groundwater Flow System Analysis in the Akaki Catchment,Central Ethiopia

A three dimensional steady-state finite difference groundwater flow model is used to quantify the groundwater fluxes and analyze the subsurface hydrodynamics in the Akaki catchment by giving particular emphasis to the well field that supplies water to the city of Addis Ababa. The area is characterized by Tertiary volcanics covered with thick residual and alluvial soils. The model is calibrated using head observations from 131 wells. The simulation is made in a two layer unconfined aquifer with spatially variable recharge and hydraulic conductivities under well-defined boundary conditions. The calibrated model is used to forecast groundwater flow pattern, the interaction of groundwater and surface water, and the effect of pumping on the well field under different scenarios. The result indicates that the groundwater flows regionally to the south converging to the major well field. Reservoirs and rivers play an important role in recharging the aquifer. Simulations made under different pumping rate indicate that an increase in pumping rate results in substantial regional groundwater level decline, which will lead to the drying of springs and shallow hand dug wells. Also, it has implications of reversal of flow from contaminated rivers into productive aquifers close to main river courses. The scenario analysis shows that the groundwater potential is not enough to sustain the ever-growing water demand of the city of Addis Ababa. The sensitivity and scenario analysis provided important information on the data gaps and the specific sites to be selected for monitoring, and may be of great help for transient model development. This study has laid the foundation for developing detailed predictive groundwater model, which can be readily used for groundwater management practices.     

Influence of South to North Water Transfer on groundwater dynamic change in Beijing plain

Beijing is a city of severe water shortage. The groundwater plays a key role in the water supply. However, the groundwater level has been gradually descending due to extensive pumping in consecutive drought years. How to satisfy the water demand and recover the groundwater level is an urgent work. With the implementation of the South to North Water Transfer Project, an opportunity has been provided for restoration of groundwater under over exploitation. On the basis of hydrogeology conditions of the Beijing plain, as well as the high-performance parallel computing platforms, a groundwater flow numerical model was established. And dynamic monitoring data of groundwater levels were used to calibrate the numerical model. The calculation results fit well with the measured data in the calibrated model. Therefore, the calibrated model can be used to predict the dynamic change of groundwater levels in the Beijing plain. The results show that several obvious depression cones of groundwater have been formed because of the rapid decline of groundwater levels in the Beijing plain in recent years. After the implementation of the South to North Water Transfer project and due to the restrictions on groundwater exploitation, the area of cone of depression will be reduced to different degrees, the central water level of depression cone will increase, and some cones of depression around wellhead will disappear. It is a benefit to relieve water shortage and control the development of land subsidence and the deterioration of the ecological environment.     

Evaluation of alternative conceptual models for groundwater modelling

This study evaluates the alternative conceptual models for groundwater modelling. A true model was created with a synthetic alluvial fan-plain hydrogeological framework. Various alternative conceptual models were evaluated for groundwater flow simulations. The first alternative model is a single aquifer layer model; the second alternative model is a 3-layer aquifer model; and the third model is a 5-layer model consisting of 3 aquifers separated by 2 aquitards. All models could fit very well to the observations with optimized values of hydraulic conductivities. However, the single aquifer layer model can only compute water balance components with good accuracy. The 3-layer aquifer model can be used for water balance computation and groundwater head simulation with small errors. The 5-layer model is capable of simulating water budget, groundwater head distribution and travel times with high accuracy. Multi-model analysis found only the 3rd alternative model superior.     

Influence of flooding on groundwater flow in central Cambodia

Cambodia is affected by flooding from the Mekong, Tonle Sap and Bassac rivers every year, which harms human populations and damages property, as well as alters the water quality in aquifer systems. The objective of this paper is to highlight the effects of river flooding on groundwater flow using numerical simulation. A two-dimensional groundwater flow model coupled with a groundwater recharge model was applied to the research area in central Cambodia. River level variation was included in model processes, and flood areas and periods were assigned. The results showed that during flooding periods, floodwater from the three rivers played an important role in recharging groundwater. During the dry season, Tonle Sap River received groundwater supply from the northwest, and levels in the Bassac and Mekong River dropped to lower than the groundwater level. This study improves understanding of the surface water and groundwater flow system in the study area.