坡地径流入渗机制对水文模拟的影响分析

建立了适用于栅格单元系统的基于运动波理论的降尺度新安江模型(KWXAJ)。在栅格单元中采用新安江模型计算产流,运动波模型进行坡面汇流演算。模型中,为考虑上游坡地单元入流的径流入渗(run-on)效应,在进行坡地产流计算时,降雨及上游坡面流及壤中出流被同时作为来水输入新安江模型。在运动波模型中,糙率系数依据土地利用方式及洪水量级确定。选取淮河史灌河流域黄泥庄以上集水区域,作为研究区域。用流域历史上的13次洪水过程来率定和验证此模型。研究表明,run-on机制对流域产汇流预测有重要影响,其显著影响流域内土壤蓄水量时空分布,进而改变产汇流机制。数据分析还显示,不考虑run-on机制将导致模拟洪峰滞后。     

二维水流数学模型区产流、汇流问题的探讨

目前,二维水流数学模型已得到普遍应用,但模型区的产流、汇流问题考虑较少。通过南水北调中线工程总干渠左岸串流区二维水流模拟计算,针对水面区和陆面区不同情况对模型区的产流、汇流问题进行了分析研究,在二维水动力学数学模型的基础上建立了串流区水文、水力学模型,提出了处理模型区产流、汇流问题的一套行之有效的方法。     

VIC模型汇流方案的改进

VIC模型作为具有物理基础的大尺度水文模型得到了广泛应用,然而其现行汇流方案无法用于场次洪水的模拟。本文采用单位线法和Maskingum-Cunge法对模型的汇流方案进行了改进。以时段气象数据驱动VIC模型进行产流计算,以所改进的汇流方案进行汇流演算,对西江南宁以上流域的场次洪水过程进行了模拟,结果表明,改进的汇流方案可以较好的模拟出口断面的洪水过程,并对洪水的空间演进过程具有一定的描述能力。     

考虑动态汇流路径的时变分布式单位线

针对现有分布式单位线汇流理论未考虑土壤含水量变化引起的时变汇流路径问题,提出动态汇流路径新概念,推求同时考虑降雨强度和土壤含水量时空分布的坡面流速计算公式,引入地形指数刻画流域蓄水能力空间分布,从而获得栅格尺度流域流速分布场,进一步建立不同蓄满状态下流域动态汇流路径集合,最终实现考虑动态汇流路径的时变分布式单位线推求。以龙虎圩和东石流域为实例,通过SCS模型计算产流量,采用本文所提方法进行汇流计算,引入涵盖低流量误差、高流量误差及洪量误差的多目标优化方法率定参数,2个典型流域28场洪水预报结果表明,洪峰流量相对误差在±15%内,峰现时间误差在±6 h之间,纳什效率系数平均值超过0.8,与现有方法相比,所提方法能更加准确地反映汇流时间分布场,提高了洪水预报精度。     

港口湾水库入库洪水预报模型研究

基于港口湾、胡乐司流域产、汇流分析，提出了分流域、分单元入库洪水预报模型的整体构架，产流计算应用了蓄满产流模型，汇流计算提出了拟线性河网汇流指数模型：Csj=Sso αe^-βA j，实现了汇流系数因入流强度自动调整的目标。     

基于DEM的等流时单元法在大流域分布式水文模型中的应用

等流时单元法是一种具有物理基础同时又非常简便的分布式流域汇流模型。若能应用于大流域,会显著提高大流域分布式水文模型的计算能力,可以扩展其在大流域分布式水文模型中的应用,降低其限制性。采用基于DEM的等流时单元法进行坡面汇流计算,即坡面汇流经河流两侧并入河道,河道汇流使用扩散波方程（USGS的河道汇流程序包SFR1）,将其推广到大流域分布式水文模型的应用之中。该方法与二维坡面汇流的扩散波数值方程相比较,能够节省计算时间。在伊通河中下游较大流域上试用结果表明,农安站计算与实测流量的最大相对拟合误差为13%,模型月流量Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数为0.9。等流时单元法用于大流域分布式水文模型的坡面汇流是可行的。     

坡面土壤侵蚀公式的建立及其在流域产沙计算中的应用

分析了坡面土壤颗粒的受力情况,认为坡面土壤颗粒的运动与其所受的有效切应力有关,从而推导出坡面土壤侵蚀量计算公式,建立了流域产沙模型。公式的推导具有较强的泥沙运动力学基础,反映了影响流域产沙的主要因素。模型参数少,应用方便,既可计算一次洪水产沙量,又可计算年产沙量。在陕北裴家峁流域上应用,结果令人满意。     

Sobol′方法分析TOPMODEL水文模型参数敏感性

为深入理解TOPMODEL水文模型产汇流机理和分析模型参数选择对洪水模拟影响,使用全局敏感性分析Sobol′方法对TOPMODEL模型单个参数和参数组合对洪水模拟指标影响进行了定量分析。结果表明:模型各个参数单独作用对纳什效率系数、径流总量相对误差和洪峰相对误差影响较小;土壤饱和传导度、坡面汇流速度和土壤下渗率指数衰减速率单独作用对峰现时差影响显著;土壤下渗率指数衰减速率和下渗滞时组合对纳什效率系数、径流总量相对误差、洪峰相对误差影响最大;土壤下渗率指数衰减速率和土壤饱和传导度组合对峰现时差影响显著。     

流域坡面汇流研究现状述评

对当前坡面汇流计算方法的研究进展进行了较为系统的总结与分析,并对坡面汇流的非线性效应以及城市低影响开发中的雨水入渗与蓄集对坡面汇流的控制作用进行了简要分析。从模型简单实用的角度出发,认为以流域时间-面积关系与线性水库相串联的ModClark法等为代表的概念性分布式坡面汇流模型具有良好的发展前景;考虑到基于等流时单元的变动等流时线法在反映雨强非线性影响中存在的问题,认为根据水文响应单元在不同雨强条件下汇流时间的变化,调整其汇流参数以反映坡面汇流的非线性效应,对于流域坡面汇流的分布式模拟更具有实际意义;针对目前低影响开发设施长时间序列大空间尺度的室外降雨径流监测资料普遍较为缺乏的现状,给出了后期应积极选择合适的技术以加强低影响开发性能监测工作的建议。     

现行坡面汇流理论的检验与分析

一、概述坡面汇流是研究坡面上水体运动的规律,亦即坡面水深、流速、调蓄的过程。这是小流域雨洪计算中的一个重要问题,曾引起很多研究者的重视,并都用过理论推导,即大家所熟知的连续方程或水量平衡方程与动力方程,结合资料来求解坡面水深过程和坡面流速的问题。这次,我们通过沈寿长同志主持设计组装的“自动调节人工降雨概化汇流试验模型”试验资料分析,初步得出坡面的蓄积和出流过程。由于我们只有250‰和50‰两种坡度的试验资料,山坡末端的任一时刻的流速未曾测试,山坡水深的测量精度也不高。因此,本文仅检验目前几种“坡面汇流计算方法”的差异和精度。关于坡面汇流水深计算以及如何确定     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Report of the restudy of the defined global stratotype of the base of the Silurian System

The Global Stratotype Section and Point （GSSP） for the base of the Silurian System was defined in 1985. Since that time, a number of researchers have suggested that this section has serious deficiencies for use as a GSSP. As a result, in 2000, the Subcommission on Silurian Stratigraphy （SSS） proposed undertaking a formal restu@ of this GSSP, which was subsequently approved by the International Commission of Stratigraphy （ICS）. The result of this restudy was the formal proposal that the current GSSP, at 1.6 m above the base of the Birkhill Shale, at Dob＇s Linn, Scotland, should be maintained as the same locality and stratigraphic level, but the bios- tratigraphical definition of the boundary should be revised. The previously defined, basal Silurian grapto- lite zone, the Parakidograptus acuminatus Zone, should be subdivided into a lower Akidograptus ascensus Zone and a higher E acuminatus Zone. The base of the A. ascensus Zone, marked by the first appearance of A. ascensus, should be regarded as the biostratigraphic mark for the base of the Silurian. This proposal has now been formally approved by the SSS and ICS, and ratified by International Union of Geological Sciences. This is the first GSSP to undergo formal restudy and redefini- tion, and the proposal also included a recommended procedure for restudy of GSSPs.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

The Tendencies of the Development of the Mineral-Resources Sector at the Turn of the Century

Important tendencies in development of the world mineral-resources sector at the beginning of the 21st century were an increase in production and consumption of mineral materials differentiated by types of metals and nonmetallic mineral raw materials, by countries and regions, as well as the concentration of the production of mineral raw materials in a small number of countries, and a reduction in industrial reserves of minerals in the world economy, even at the current stage of their extraction. These tendencies should be taken into account in working out a strategy for development of the Russian mineral raw-material base.     

Causes of the famine among the rural population of the Sahelian zone of the Sudan

Taking the example of W Sudan, an analysis of the climatic incidents leading to the two recent famine disasters is made. On this natural background, the human side is investigated. Focus is directed towards the fragile economic structure of the famine-prone population groups. An early-warning system for famine in the Sahelian Zone is proposed taking grain production and storage, livestock development and the relationship between the prices of livestock and grain as major indicators.     

东濮凹陷北部沙河街组三段中亚段沉积环境分析

东濮凹陷北部沙三中亚段广泛发育盐岩和烃源岩,这两个看似不能共存的物质却在这里互层共生。该时期研究区沉积特征为多盐韵律与多层烃源岩互层共生、连续沉积,单个盐韵律厚度从几米到十几米,烃源岩有机质丰度高、类型好。平面上,两者在湖盆沉积沉降中心共生;垂向上,高有机质丰度、好干酪根类型与高盐度地层具有较好的对应关系。因而成为恢复古气候和古环境的重要研究对象。通过岩石学、古生物学以及Sr/Ba、B/Ga、(V+Ni+Mn)、Fe/Mn、Sr/Cu、Mg/Ca、V/(V+Ni)、稀土元素含量和氯同位素等方法对凹陷北部沙三中亚段的沉积环境进行研究。结果表明,凹陷北部沙三中亚段为深水沉积的还原环境,古盐度较高,达到半咸水-咸水沉积;微量元素和孢粉化石特征表明研究区沙三中亚段为温暖潮湿的环境。     

郯庐断裂南段研究进展与断裂性质讨论

据1：5万区域地质调查和专题研究资料，就郯庐断裂带是否南延与消失的原因，其与大别—苏鲁造山带交截形成的假位错效应，以及与中新生代沉积盆地形成演化的关系等作了新的阐述。在此基础上，讨论了郯庐断裂带是否为巨大的左行平移断层或转换断层。认为郯庐断裂带可能是在“古郯庐带”的基础上于早侏罗世重新活动、白垩纪强烈活动的地堑型枢纽断裂带。     

The Importance of the Precipitation and the Susceptibility of the Slopes for the Triggering of Landslides Along the Roads

In order to characterise the influence of the heavyrains on the observed landslides during the 1996–1997hydrological cycle, rainfall records for the last 100years are analysed from 104 stations in easternAndalusia. Regarding the amounts of rain recordedbetween October 1996 and March 1997 in the 104stations studied, 31 presented new all-time records;15 presented values that were 80–100% of thepre-1995 record; 49 stations, 80–50%; and 9stations, < 50%. A map has been devised of thesusceptibility of the materials through which thesouth-eastern Andalusian road network crosses,together with an inventory of the damage caused byinstability phenomena on banks and cuttings of theroad network during the winter of 1996–1997. Therelationships between the rainfall during the studyperiod, the damage caused to the road network and thesusceptibility of the materials affected are analysed.The results indicate that there is a clearcorrespondence between the rainfall recorded and thesusceptibility of the materials with the inventorieddamage. It is concluded that the widespread seriousdamage caused in early 1997 to the roads andsurrounding areas in the Alpujarra region and thecoast of the Province of Granada was mainly caused bythe extraordinarily heavy rains. However, considerablyless damage was observed where the susceptibility ofthe terrain is low, thus highlighting the extremeusefulness of terrain-susceptibility maps for riskprevention and territorial planning.