Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km²) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m²) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.     

Morphological features and processes in the central Algarve rocky coast (South Portugal)

Morphological features along the Algarve rocky coast, South Portugal, are identified and described, with an emphasis on shore platforms and notches. The contributions of processes, such as wave attack, chemical weathering and bioerosion, to sculpting the shore platforms are discussed. The preferential localization of shore platforms on sites exposed to waves, and the lack of significant chemical weathering, point to wave erosion as the first-order factor in platform formation, whilst bioerosion/bioprotection, lithology and geological structure determine platform morphological variations. In addition, platforms above the present intertidal zone appear to have a polygenetic evolution, being inherited from former sea-level highstands and currently undergoing chemical weathering. The occurrence of notch features is independent of the degree of exposure to waves, but they mostly occur where the substratum is sand. Hydrostatic pressure appears to be an important factor in the formation of marine caves in the more sheltered sites.     

A pleistocene origin for shore platforms along the Northern Illawarra Coast,New South Wales

This paper examines the composition, structure and age of clastic deposits situated behind shore platforms at Austinmer and Coledale on the northern Illawarra coast, New South Wales. Our results support earlier chronological evidence of a Pleistocene history for shore platforms along the Illawarra coast. The size and fabric of sediments within these deposits indicate rapid, high‐energy deposition of bedrock eroded from platforms adjacent to the deposits. The elevations of the deposits above the modern shoreline suggest higher sea levels or higher wave energy gradients than presently occurs across these platforms. Dating of sediments within these deposits using ¹⁴C, AAR and TL techniques indicates Late Pleistocene and Late Holocene erosion of the shore platforms. Platform development was initiated before the Last Interglacial as correlative sediments lie atop relict platform surfaces landward of the modern platforms.     

Cu- and Zn-Soil Anomalies in the NE Border of the South Portuguese Zone (Iberian Variscides,Portugal) Identified by Multifractal and Geostatistical Analyses

Extensive Cu- and Zn-soil geochemical data in the Albernoa/Entradas–S. Domingos region (NE border of the Iberian Pyrite Belt, South Portuguese Zone) were examined to separate anomalies from background using the concentration–area fractal model. Distribution patterns of Cu and Zn concentrations in soil are primarily influenced by bedrock. The regional threshold values of Cu- and Zn-soil contents over metasedimentary sequences are 20–25 and 20–60 ppm, respectively, becoming 30–50 and 20–90 ppm, respectively, when metavolcanic rocks are present. The first-order threshold values for Cu are 80–90 ppm in soils over metasediments and 70–80 ppm in soils over sequences bearing metavolcanics. For Zn, the first-order threshold values are 40–80 and 90–100 ppm in soils over metasediments and metavolcanic rocks, respectively. Metasediments and metavolcanics comprising significant sulphide disseminations are outlined by Cu- and Zn-soil values above 100 and 300 ppm in soil, respectively. On the basis of these results, Alvares and Albernoa/Entradas areas emerge as the first priority targets for exploration. The observed non-coincidence of Cu- and Zn-soil anomalies in soil in the area could reflect difference in element dispersion during weathering, they mostly indicate distinct metal sources related to the original composition of different rock types or to chemical changes developed during Variscan deformation/re-crystallization path. The established regional baseline data can be used as reference for environmental studies.     

Evolution of clay mineral assemblages and organic matter in the late glacial-Holocene sedimentary infill of Lake Annecy, (northwestern Alps): paleoenvironmental implications

The basin fill of Lake Annecy was investigated from a 44 m core which reached down to glacial sediments of the last glaciation (called Würm in the alpine areas). We analyzed three main parameters: sediment texture (optical microscopy and laser microgranulometry), clay mineral assemblages (CMA by XRD), and organic matter (OM by Rock-Eval pyrolysis). Settling of suspended load, under variable hydrodynamic conditions is the main depositional process. Both CMA and OM provenances can be recognized for the different sedimentary and igneous-metamorphic formations (Carboniferous to Quaternary, and older crystalline basement) and corresponding areas, in the surrounding region of Lake Annecy. Oligocene-Miocene molasses, Early Cretaceous marls, and Early-Middle Jurassic marls and shales are the main sedimentary sources. Two distinct processes were operating: destruction of glacial sediments (till sensu largo) and reworking, or direct erosion and run-off from ice-free catchment areas. Clay minerals related to pedogenesis, and non-reworked terrestrial and lacustrine OM, were progessively added to these primary sources during the Late Würmian/Holocene transition to warmer climatic conditions. Rapid modifications of CMA and OM sources during the earlier phase of sedimentary infilling (Unit 2) suggest that valley glaciers connected to the lake basin almost completely disappeared within a few centuries.     

The origin of oriented lakes in the Andean foreland, Parque Nacional Torres del Paine (Chilean Patagonia)

The Parque Nacional Torres Del Paine and surrounding area in the Magallanes foreland basin in Chilean Patagonia is the site for numerous lakes fed by glaciers and rivers in the Andean highlands to the west. The lakes are elongate and have conspicuously systematic orientations. We hypothesize that the origin of the oriented lakes lies in the fault system, composed of a right-lateral strike-slip fault set oriented 58° from north, a left-lateral strike-slip set oriented 87°, and a thrust fault set oriented 167°, that exists within the underlying rocks. To test this hypothesis quantitatively, we determined the shape and orientation of the lakes by fitting each lake with an ellipse of appropriate aspect ratio, and later with multiple ellipses consistent with the composite geometry of some lakes. We then examined the faults in the area in terms of their kinematics, orientation and distribution. The distribution of lake orientations showed three distinct groups which appear to correspond to the three main fault groups. For lakes fitted with multiple ellipses, the difference in means between the right-lateral, left-lateral, and thrust faults and their corresponding groups of lakes are 3.05°, 1.57°, and 5.17°. Using a Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) statistical test to compare the orientations of faults with respect to the lakes suggests that there is not a strongly significant difference between the fault orientations and the corresponding lake groups. These results indicate that the faults have a profound control on the orientation, shape, and distribution of the lakes. We attribute this to faults and their damage zones being weaker and therefore prone to a faster rate of erosion, and to stress perturbations associated with discontinuous faults resulting in localized high density fracturing and surface subsidence. These results have implications for lake and drainage system morphologies in other foreland basins along the Andes and other similar settings.     

The recent sedimentation history of Aqualate Mere (central England): assessing the potential for lake restoration

As part of English Natures Lakes Flagship Project to address adverse environmental impacts on selected, important lakes, a proposal has been made to dredge Aqualate Mere. The site has experienced rapid, recent sedimentation thought to be derived from a nearby canal. The aim of this study has been to determine the recent sedimentation history of the site in order to assess the possibility of the disposal to land of its sediments and the efficacy of this form of lake restoration. A predominantly clayey silt layer was found across the lake beneath which darker, organic-rich sediments were noted. This transition may represent the input of canal-derived sediments, although it may reflect other environmental changes at this time. The radiometric dating technique employed was unable to date this sediment boundary. A further change in the characteristics of the upper part of the clayey silt layer may represent an additional influence of the canal. Heavy metal levels were modest, whereas nutrient levels were relatively high and some pesticides were detected. Topsoil erosion supplying nutrients and other compounds associated with agriculture have been an important source of the lower layers of the clayey silt sediments in particular. The highest levels of most pollutants were found in the finer sediments in the uppermost (post-1950s) part of the sediment profile. These sediments appear to reflect a change in the characteristics of the sediments of the canal, which was associated with a change in the nature of its water supply. The key geochemical properties of the sediments should not preclude the land-based disposal of dredged materials under current UK regulations for waste management. Accurate estimation of sediment quantities was limited, as the interface between the recent and underlying sediments was not positively identified at all sample points.     

Geomorphologic evidence of the active Baza Fault (Betic Cordillera, South Spain)

The present work investigates a mountain front within the Plio-Quaternary deposits belonging to the sedimentary fill of the Guadix-Baza Basin (Betic Cordillera, Southern Spain). This 30 km-long front, developed in soft sediments and within a context of high erosion, is generated by the recent activity of the Baza Normal Fault. The mountain front is the natural limit between the western and eastern sectors, corresponding to the two sub-basins of Guadix and Baza. The two main glacis described in previous works in the area of the Baza Fault – the Old Glacis in the Guadix Sub-basin and the Recent Glacis in the Baza Sub-basin – are interpreted here as a single one, displaced by the fault. Using this Glacis as a marker we deduced that its age and the transition of the basin from endorheic to exorheic must be much older than previous estimations. The Baza Fault may be considered as one of the most active faults of the central part of the Betic Cordillera, according to the results of the general quantitative analysis of the mountain front relief using the Smf/Vf ratio and the SL index.     

Effects of heavy metals on the survival ofDiacypris compacta (Herbst) (Ostracoda) from the Coorong,South Australia

The hypermarine southern Coorong is threatened by proposals to drain relatively fresh surface water and groundwater from adjacent agricultural areas into the Coorong. These influent waters carry moderate loads of heavy metals. Acute toxicity of heavy metals toDiacypris compacta, an abundant ostracod in the Coorong, was measured in the laboratory at 18°C in a static system using Coorong water (pH 7.8 salinity 50 ppt). At 4 days (96 h) the mean values of LC₅₀ for copper, zinc, lead and, cadmium respectively were 0.8, 2.1, 3.1 and 4.3 mg L^–1, and at 8 days the respective mean LC₅₀ s were 0.4, 0.7, 2.2 and 1.1 mgL^–1. The effect of two or three metals on mortality was additive in some cases and synergistic in other cases, but generally less than additive. However, in all cases mortality was greater in the presence of two or three metals than in the presence of a single metal. According to ANZECC (1992) guidelines, maximum acceptable concentrations of heavy metals should be no higher than 0.01 x the lowest LC₅₀ value. Using the lowest LC₅₀ values forDiacypris compacta obtained at 8 days, maximum acceptable concentrations in the Coorong would be 4, 5, 9 and 22 gL^–1 for copper, zinc, cadmium and lead respectively, the values for zinc and copper failling below those recommended by ANZECC (1992) for marine waters. Reported concentrations of copper and zinc in surface water and groundwater in areas adjacent to the Coorong sometimes exceed these values, hence drainage of these waters into the Coorong represents a significant hazard to the Coorong biota.     

The origin of shallow landslides in Moravia (Czech Republic) in the spring of 2006

At the end of March 2006, the Czech Republic (CZ) witnessed a fast thawing of an unusually thick snow cover in conjunction with massive rainfall. Most watercourses suffered floods, and more than 90 shallow landslides occurred in the Moravian region of Eastern CZ, primarily in non-forested areas. This region, geologically part of the Outer Western Carpathians, is prone to landslides because the bedrock is highly erodible Mesozoic and Tertiary flysch.The available meteorological data (depth of snow, water equivalent of the snow, cumulative rainfall, air and soil temperatures) from five local weather stations were used to construct indices quantitatively describing the snow thaw. Among these, the Total Cumulative Precipitation (TCP) combines the amount of water from both thawing snow and rainfall. This concurrence of rain and runoff from snow melt was the decisive factor in triggering the landslides in the spring.The TCP index was applied to data of snow thaw periods for the last 20 years, when no landslides were recorded. This was to establish the safe threshold of TCP without landslides. The calculated safe threshold value for the region is ca. 100 mm of water delivered to the soil during the spring thaw (corresponding to ca. 11 mm day^− 1). In 2006, 10% of the landslides occurred under or at 100 mm of TCP. The upper value of 155 mm covered all of the landslides.     

The influence of floodplain geohydrology on the distribution of Sarcocornia pillansii in the Olifants Estuary on the West Coast, South Africa

The distribution of Sarcocornia pillansii (Moss) A.J. Scott was determined by water-table depth and electrical conductivity (EC) of the groundwater. Where the groundwater was accessible (<1.5 m) and had a low EC (<80 mS cm⁻¹), S. pillansii extended its roots down to the water-table where a suitable water potential gradient was shown to exist between the soil and roots. In areas where the groundwater was too deep and/or hypersaline, the plants grew on hummocks. The unconfined aquifer below the floodplain is linked to the estuary and although diurnal tidal waves were dampened, water-table level fluctuations were recorded between tidal events. The complex geomorphology of the floodplain influences groundwater flow, in turn affecting the distribution of the salt marsh vegetation.     

The genesis of the northern Kettle Moraine, Wisconsin

Interpreting past glacial dynamics from the glacial record requires that the depositional environments of glacial sediments and landforms be understood. In the case of interlobate deposits, models that incorporate various components of pro, supra and subglacial deposition have been developed and tested in the northern Kettle Moraine (nKM), Wisconsin; a large interlobate deposit that formed between the Green Bay and Lake Michigan lobes of the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation. In this paper, we interpret a new genesis for the nKM using sediment analysis and distribution along with landform distribution. In Sheboygan County, the nKM consists of two steep-sided, high-relief, hummocky ridges separated by a low elevation and low-relief central axis. Gravel in the bounding hummocky ridges is well-sorted and well-rounded. Some bedding is collapsed. Large, isolated moulin kames are restricted to the axis area and composed of relatively poorly sorted, more angular gravel and diamicton. The distribution of these different sediments and landforms are explained by the accumulation of supraglacial debris that insulated the ice below the axis of the nKM, while the melting of cleaner ice on either side formed channels on the ice surface. As deglaciation proceeded, a substantial thickness of well-rounded, stream-deposited sand and gravel accumulated on ice in the bounding channels. Eventual collapse of this sediment formed the two hummocky ridges. Poorly sorted debris along the axis fell and slid into moulins and larger collapse areas in the ice. Thus, differential debris insulation and ice ablation controlled the mainly supraglacial deposition of this part of the nKM.     

The late Quaternary sedimentary infill of Lake Annecy (northwestern Alps): an overview from two seismic-reflection surveys

The sedimentary fill of Lake Annecy (northwestern Alps) - related to the last glacial/post-glacial episode - was investigated through high resolution (sparker) and very high resolution (2.5 kHz) seismic-reflection surveys. A seismostratigraphic approach led to subdivision of a 150 m-thick pile (maximum thickness in axial part) into five units. Basal units (1 and 2) represent an imbrication of subglacial and glacio-lacustrine deposits, close to the grounding line of the glaciers' fronts (respectively at the northern and southern terminations of the lake). The first acoustically well-stratified unit (3) developed during a fast retreat of the glaciers fronts far from the lake basin, and a progradational alluvial regime, with abundant underflows, in a lake larger than the present one. Unit 4 represents the progressive decrease of this clastic input mixed with the progressive development of in situ bio-induced production. As in many other alpine lakes, a topmost unit (5), relatively thin (about 8-10 m) and with a conspicuous drape configuration, is the signature of the Holocene interglacial climatic conditions with a sedimentation rate of about 1 mm/yr. On the lacustrine basin slopes, slumps and debris flow occurred mainly within Unit 3; they may be due to, either climate-induced high rate terrigenous sedimentation, or/and to a period of increased seismo-tectonic activity.     

Effectiveness of grade-control structures in reducing erosion along incised river channels: the case of Hotophia Creek, Mississippi

Herein, we undertake a geomorphological analysis in which spatial and temporal trends of bed and bank erosion along an 18-km length of Hotophia Creek, Mississippi, are estimated for the period between 1961 and 2050. The evaluation was undertaken for two scenarios of channel response to channelization during 1961–1963. One scenario represents the ‘actual’ response of the channel and includes the effects of installing a series of grade-control structures (GCS) between 1980 and 1996, while the other represents a hypothetical scenario in which the channel is left to adjust naturally. This allows the effectiveness of GCS in reducing in-channel erosion to be assessed. The analysis relies on the availability of channel survey data to develop empirical bed and bank response models for each adjustment scenario, supplemented by bank stability modelling to predict future rates of bank erosion. Results indicate that channel erosion rates decline nonlinearly with respect to time since 1961, for both adjustment scenarios. However, by the year 2050, the “with” GCS adjustment scenario results in the cumulative removal of some 663,000 (9%) extra tonnes of sediment relative to the “without” GCS scenario. Most (63%) of this excess is derived from enhanced bed erosion during 1976–1985 and 1985–1992, with the remainder derived from increased bank erosion during 1985–1992. Detailed analysis of the patterns of erosion and deposition, and their association with the GCS, provides evidence to support the view that GCS installed along Hotophia Creek have, for the most part, been ineffective in reducing channel erosion rates. This is because the GCS were installed too late to prevent bed degradation, caused by the 1961–1963 channelization, migrating upstream. In addition, some structures have disrupted the downstream transmission of bed material from eroded reaches upstream, exacerbating bed degradation and bank erosion in incised reaches downstream.     

Desert detritivory: Nutritional ecology of a dung beetle (Pachysoma glentoni) subsisting on plant litter in arid South African sand dunes

Dry conditions limit microbial decomposition of plant litter in deserts, which leaves a primary role to detritivorous macroarthropods. In the sandy arid strip along the west coast of South Africa, such detritivores include the large scarabaeid dung beetle Pachysoma glentoni. Highly unusual among dung beetles, this species collects surface litter and drags it into an underground storage and feeding chamber which is abandoned after 6–7 days. Fresh stores for single beetles and for breeding pairs (mean depths: 30 and 39 cm) contained about 1.1 and 2.9 g organic matter, respectively. Using ergosterol as a biomarker for fungal biomass, we tested the hypotheses that (1) the dry detritus takes up water underground; (2) this promotes fungal growth on the detritus, and (3) fungi are the main food of the beetles. These hypotheses were disproved, but the stored litter, including floral remains, was shown to have relatively high quality (mean atomic C:N ratio: 35) and the beetles assimilated about 60% of it. Estimated weekly water gain per beetle, supplied entirely by the food, was about 0.6 g. Our results highlight unique nutritional adaptations to survival in deserts without the usual dung beetle food: wet dung of large herbivores.     

Sustainable management of a coastal lagoonal system (Ria Formosa, Portugal): An ecological model for extensive aquaculture

The Ria Formosa lies in southern Portugal, extending for about 55 km. It is a true barrier island system, comprising mainland, backbarrier lagoons, inlet deltas, barrier islands, barrier platforms and shoreface. Of the Ria Formosa system, which covers a total area of 163 km², 20 km² are occupied by salinas and aquaculture ponds. The main water reservoir of thesalinas and the extensive aquaculture ponds behave like small lagoons where there are one or more openings to a tidal channel. These small lagoons have the advantage of being easy to study and to model. An ecological model was developed to estimate the potential production of the gilthead seabream in the Ria Formosa, in an extensive aquaculture regime. This model was based on information concerning chemical and physical factors (forcing functions) and secondary production estimates from four sites in the Ria Formosa with different environmental conditions, where extensive aquaculture is practised. Published information on optimal growth parameters of the gilthead was used to build the model, which was based on some assumptions concerning the detrimental effect of an excessive increase of salinity and other environmental factors both on gilthead growth (one state variable) and on prey production (divided into two state variables), which is essentially benthic macrofauna. Reservoirs with low water renewal undergo large environmental fluctuations. The growth of gilthead or other fish can be difficult, not only because of the adverse environmental conditions but also because of the low secondary production. The maximum yield of fish is predicted to be less than 6 g m⁻². In reservoirs where the water exchanges on almost every tide, the maximum yield of gilthead can be in excess of 22–25 g m⁻². Nevertheless, the high productivity of these sites in terms of secondary production of benthos and fish, as well as primary production, can lead to oxygen depletion during the night or at day-break. An attempt to further improve fish production by fertilisation or by adding food could provoke a rapid deterioration of the water quality and endanger all production.