Contemporary climatic change over the qinghai-xizang plateau and its response to the green-house effect

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Modeling the Roles of Precipitation Increasing in Glacier Systems Responding to Climate Warming —— Taking Xinjiang Glaciated Region as Example

The studies on prediction of climate in Xinjiang almost show that the precipitation would increase in the coming 50 years, although there were surely some uncertainties in precipitation predictions. On the basis of the structure of glacier system and nature of equilibrium line altitude at steady state （ELAo）, a functional model of the glacier system responding to climate changes was established, and it simultaneously involved the rising of summer mean temperature and increasing of mean precipitation. The results from the functional model under the climatic scenarios with temperature increasing rates of 0.01, 0.03 and 0.05 K/year indicated that the precipitation increasing would play an evident role in glacier system responding to climate change： if temperature become 1 ℃ higher, the precipitation would be increased by 10%, which can slow down the glaciers retreating rate in the area by 4 %, accelerate runoff increasing rate by 8 % and depress the ELAo rising gradient by 24 m in northern Xinjiang glacier system where semi-continental glaciers dominate, while it has corresponding values of only 1%, 5 % and 18m respectively in southern Xinjiang glacier system, where extremely continental glaciers dominate.     

RECENT TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DISTURBED BY LARGE-SCALE RECLAMATION IN THE SANGJIANG PLAIN OF CHINA

The regional observed temperature and precipitation changes and their abrupt jumps disturbed by large-scale reclamation in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China were studied. Mean annual temperature of the region was tending to go up and has increased by 1.2-2.2℃ over the past 50 years. A warming jump of mean annual temperature of the region occurred in the 1980s, which had an increase amplitude of 0.9℃. Linear tendency rates of annual precipitation were negative in most of the region. The maximum of annual precipitation decrease was 155.8mm over the past 50 years. An abrupt decrease of regional annual precipitation happened in the middle of the 1960s,which had a decrease of 102.1 mm. Based on the fact of climatic change of the Sanjiang plain over the past 50 years,it is held that the region had larger warming amplitude than that change of the Sanjiang Plain over the past 50 years,it is held that the region had larger warning amplitude than that of the surrounding areas in the recent years, which resulted from the large-scale reclamation of various kinds of wetlands.     

Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years. Climate change is most evident in the foothills; however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians, which reach approximately 350 meters, on average, what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.     

Carbon storage of the forest and its spatial pattern in Tibet,China

The raising concentration of atmospheric CO_2 resulted in global warming. The forest ecosystem in Tibet played an irreplaceable role in maintaining global carbon balance and mitigating climate change for its abundant original forest resources with powerful action of carbon sink. In the present study, the samples of soil and vegetation were collected at a total of 137 sites from 2001 to 2018 in Tibet. Based on the field survey of Tibet's forest resources and 8~(th) forest inventory data, we estimated the carbon storage and carbon density of forest vegetation(tree layer, shrub, grass, litter and dead wood) and soil(0-50 cm) in Tibet. Geostatistical methods combined with Kriging spatial interpolation and Moran's I were applied to reveal their spatial distribution patterns and variation characteristics. The carbon density of forest vegetation and soil in Tibet were 74.57 t ha~(-1) and 96.24 t ha~(-1), respectively. The carbon storage of forest vegetation and soil in Tibet were 344.35 Tg C and 440.53 Tg C, respectively. Carbon density of fir(Abies forest) was 144.80 t ha~(-1) with the highest value among all the forest types. Carbon storage of spruce(Picea forest) was the highest with 99.09 Tg C compared with other forest types. The carbon density of fir forest and spruce forest both increased with the rising temperature and precipitation. Temperature was the main influential factor. The spatial distribution of carbon density of forest vegetation, soil, and ecosystem in Tibet generally showed declining trends from western Tibet to eastern Tibet. Our results facilitated the understanding of the carbon sequestration role of forest ecosystem in the Tibet. It also implied that as the carbon storage potential of Tibet's forests are expected to increase, these forests are likely to serve as huge carbon sinks in the current era of global warming and climate change.     

Spatio-temporal variation of spring phenology in Tibetan Plateau and its linkage to climate change from 1982 to 2012

The influence of climate change on vegetation phenology is a heated issue in current climate change study. We used GIMMS-3g NDVI data to detect the spatio-temporal dynamics of the start of the growing season (SGS) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from 1982 to 2012 and to analyze its relationship with temperature and precipitation. No significant trend was observed in the SGS at the regional scale during the study period (R ² = 0.03, P = 0.352). However, there were three time periods (1982-1999, 1999-2008 and 2008-2012) with identifiable, distinctly different trends. Regions with a significant advancing trend were mainly scattered throughout the humid and semi-humid areas, whereas the regions with a significant delaying trend were mostly distributed throughout the semi-arid areas. Statistical analysis showed that the response of the SGS to climate change varies spatially. The SGS was significantly correlated with the spring temperature and the start of the thermal growth season (STGS) in the relatively humid area. With increasing aridity, the importance of the spring temperature for the SGS gradually decreased. However, the influences of precipitation and winter temperature on the SGS were complicated across the plateau.     

京津冀地区NDVI变化及气候因子驱动分析

植被覆盖动态监测及与气候变化的响应,是陆地生态系统研究的重要内容。本文以2001-2013年间京津冀地区MOD13A 3月合成NDVI数据,结合生长季的降水和气温资料,运用偏相关和复相关分析、趋势分析方法,研究了该区域NDVI的变化特征和空间分布,以及其区域植被覆盖变化的气候驱动力。结果表明,该区域NDVI最大值在13a间缓慢增加,植被覆盖呈现改善趋势;NDVI和生长季降雨量及平均气温的平均偏相关系数分别为0.20和-0.14,表明在年际变化水平上,京津冀地区NDVI总体与降水量呈正相关,与平均气温呈负相关,且降水对NDVI的影响大于温度对NDVI的影响。对植被覆盖驱动分区得出,降水和气温驱动型占区域面积的5.68%;单独降水驱动型和气温驱动型分别占4.51%、0.18%;区域内植被覆盖变化主要受非气候因子驱动型为主,所占比例为89.63%,表明人类活动对植被变化的影响巨大。     

Peat humification- and δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C<Subscript>cellulose</Subscript>-recorded warm-season moisture variations during the past 500 years in the southern Altai Mountains within northern Xinjiang of China

To predict future spatio-temporal patterns of climate change, we should fully understand the spatio-temporal patterns of climate change during the past millennium. But, we are not yet able to delineate the patterns because the qualities of the retrieved proxy records and the spatial coverage of those records are not adequate. Northern Xinjiang of China is one of such areas where the records are not adequate. Here, we present a 500-yr land-surface moisture sequence from Heiyangpo Peat (48.34°N, 87.18°E, 1353 m a.s.l) in the southern Altai Mountains within northern Xinjiang. Specifically, peat carbon isotope value of cellulose (δ¹³C_cellulose) was used to estimate the warm-season moisture variations and the degree of humification was used to constrain the δ¹³C_cellulose-based hydrological interpretation. The climatic attributions of the interpreted hydrological variations were based on the warm-season temperature reconstructed from Belukha ice core and the warm-season precipitation inferred from the reconstructed Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO). The results show that humification decreased and the δ¹³C_cellulose-suggested moisture decreased from ~1510 to ~1775 AD, implying that a constant drying condition may have inhibited peat decay. Our comparison with reconstructed climatic parameters suggests that the moisture-level decline was most likely resulted from a constant decline of precipitation. The results also show that humification kept a stable level and the δ¹³C_cellulose-suggested moisture also decreased from ~1775 to ~2013 AD, implying that peat decay in the acrotelm primarily did not depend on the water availability or an aerobic environment. Again, our comparison with reconstructed climatic parameters suggests that the land-surface moisturelevel decline was most likely resulted from a steady warming of growing-season temperature.     

Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in Hengduan Mountains, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1961–2008

Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values,and so have received much attention.In this study,twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008.The results reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequencies of extreme warm days and nights.Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant.Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming.At a large proportion of the stations,patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961:warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature.As the center of the Shaluli Mountain,the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer.Changes in precipitation extremes is low:trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation,and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level.It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains,however,the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north.Overall,the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions.     

Changes in the thermal and hydraulic regime within the active layer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The change trends of air temperature,precipitation and evaporation from 1999 to 2008 shows that the climate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost region had become warmer.The analysis of the systematic active-layer data monitoring network along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway indicated that the active-layer thickness had been increasing and the soil temperature was rising.The soil temperature was rising in winter but not at the end of spring or during the entire summer.With thickening and warming of the active layer,the liquid water content of the active layer had an obvious downward migration and liquid water content in the top horizons decreased,but in the deeper horizons it increased.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori-A conservation approach

Climate change will affect the geographic distribution and richness of species at different spatial and temporal scales. We applied Maximum entropy(MaxEnt) modeling to predict the potential influence of climatic change on the current and future distribution of the important mountainous tree species Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori. The Maxent model performed better than random models for the species with the training and test AUC(Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve) values of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Jackknife test and response curves showed that the distribution of the species negatively correlates with higher altitudes and precipitation in October and November. Moreover, it positively correlates with the total annual precipitation and precipitation in January. Under current and future climatic conditions, our model predicted habitat gains for M. peregrina towards the coastal northern and southern limits of its distribution. The potentially suitable habitats, under future climate projections, are currently characterized by elevations of 1000 m a.s.l. and total annual precipitation of 80-225 mm/year. Moderate and high potential habitat suitability will increase by 5.6%-6% and 2.1%-2.3%, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. The results indicated that the habitat suitability of M. peregrina would increase with increasing climate warming, particularly under RCP2.6 scenario. We recommend sustainable conservation and cultivation of Moringa peregrina in its current habitats along the Red Sea mountains.     

Progress in studies on geographical environments of the Qinghai-Xiang plateau

The Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau area was subjected to twice uplift and planation in the Tertiary. Intense uplifting of the plateau area has given rise to drastic changes and differentiation of physical environment on the plateau and the surrounding area since 3.4 Ma B.P. Significant environmental changes with dry tendency in interior of the plateau had occurred during the last 150 ka B.P. By comparative study on several mountains of the plateau, two systems of the structure-type of the altitudinal belt are identified and nine groups are subdivided. A distribution model with close relevance to highland uplift effect has been generalized. A number of striking geo-ecological phenomen and their spatial pattern such as moisture corridor, dry valleys, high-cold meadow zone, and high-cold arid core area are investigated and discussed. Based on the thermal conditions, moisture regimes and variation in landforms of the plateau is sequentially demarcated. A tentative scheme of 2 temperature belts, 10 natural zones and 28 physical districts has been proposed not including southern slopes of the East Himalayas. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is sensitive to “green house effect”, showing close relation with global change. Characteristics of temperature and precipitation on the plateau during the last 2000 years, and response of glaciers, snow deposit and permafrost on the plateau to global change are dealt with in the present paper. Under the auspices of Chinese National Key Project for Basic Research (G1998040800) and CAS project on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (KZ951 - A1 - 204, KZ95T - 06)     

Climatic features of summer temperature in northeast china under warming background

By using,summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China （NET） were analyzed based on the background of climate wanning. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15~C/10a in Northeast China, which was higher than that on the global, Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly, it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer; secondly, the temperature variability increased, which displayed the increase of climatic instability; thirdly, the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously, but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming background, which would be worthy of notice further.     

Using genetic algorithms to calibrate a dimethylsulfide production model in the Arctic ocean

The global climate is intimately connected to changes in the polar oceans. The variability of sea ice coverage affects deep-water formations and large-scale thermohaline circulation patterns. The polar radiative budget is sensitive to sea-ice loss and consequent surface albedo changes. Aerosols and polar cloud microphysics are crucial players in the radiative energy balance of the Arctic Ocean. The main biogenic source of sulfate aerosols to the atmosphere above remote seas is dimethylsulfide (DMS). Recent research suggests the flux of DMS to the Arctic atmosphere may change markedly under global warming. This paper describes climate data and DMS production (based on the five years from 1998 to 2002) in the region of the Barents Sea (30–35°E and 70–80°N). A DMS model is introduced together with an updated calibration method. A genetic algorithm is used to calibrate the chlorophyll-a (CHL) measurements (based on satellite SeaWiFS data) and DMS content (determined from cruise data collected in the Arctic). Significant interannual variation of the CHL amount leads to significant interannual variability in the observed and modeled production of DMS in the study region. Strong DMS production in 1998 could have been caused by a large amount of ice algae being released in the southern region. Forcings from a general circulation model (CSIRO Mk3) were applied to the calibrated DMS model to predict the zonal mean sea-to-air flux of DMS for contemporary and enhanced greenhouse conditions at 70–80°N. It was found that significantly decreasing ice coverage, increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing mixed-layer depth could lead to annual DMS flux increases of more than 100% by the time of equivalent CO₂ tripling (the year 2080). This significant perturbation in the aerosol climate could have a large impact on the regional Arctic heat budget and consequences for global warming.     

未来RCP4.5情景下非洲地区主要气候要素时空演变特征

气候变化影响及其适应受到广泛关注。大量研究表明,受气候变化影响所造成的增温和降水减少已影响到非洲地区的农业生产和环境。本文利用HadGEM2区域气候模式输出的RCP4.5情景数据,基于时间序列分析及空间分析方法,对非洲大陆2010-2099年主要关键气候要素时空演变特征进行了预估,探讨了非洲大陆未来90年包括降水、辐射、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温等主要气候要素的时空变化格局。结果表明：各气候要素在不同时段的变化均表现出明显的地域分异差异： ① 相较于1970-1999年基准时段,未来3个时段(2020s、2050s、2080s)降水均增加,在2080s增至峰值,增加地区集中在20 °N附近的尼日尔、乍得、利比亚等国;最高增幅达4.5%;② 辐射增加区域分布在赤道地区和非洲大陆的南北两端,尤其是高海拔地区,如撒哈拉沙漠以北的阿特拉斯山脉附近,加丹加高原等地,最大增幅达0.04%;③ 未来90年非洲地区气温增加明显,包括平均气温、最高气温、最低气温,气温增幅由2020s、2050s、2080s依次递增,到2080s达到最大值,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的最大增幅分别达到5、4.3和5.1 ℃。总体上,未来90年非洲大陆的气温较1970-1999年基准时段明显增多,但靠近海域的沿海地区增温较小,这是由于受到近海寒流的影响,起到了降温的作用。气温增幅过高也将不利于未来农业生产和地区安全。     

Vegetation cover variation in the Qilian Mountains and its response to climate change in 2000–2011

An understanding 0f variati0ns in vegetati0n c0ver in resp0nse t0 climate change is critical f0r predicting and managing future terrestrial ec0system dynamics. Because scientists anticipate that m0untain ec0systems will be m0re sensitive t0 future climate change c0mpared t0 0thers, 0ur 0bjectives were t0 investigate the impacts 0f climate change 0n variati0n in vegetati0n c0ver in the Qilian M0untains （QLM）, China, between 2000 and 2011. T0 acc0mplish this, we used linear regressi0n techniques 0n 250-m MODIS N0rmalized Difference Vegetati0n Index （NDVI） datasets and mete0r0l0gical rec0rds t0 determine spati0temp0ral variability in vegetati0n c0ver and climatic fact0rs （i.e. temperature and precipitati0n）. Our results sh0wed that temperatures and precipitati0n have increased in this regi0n during 0ur study peri0d. In additi0n, we f0und that gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI was mainly distributed in the vertical z0ne fr0m 2,700 m t0 3,600 m in elevati0n. In the study regi0n, we 0bserved significant p0sitive and negative trends in vegetati0n c0ver in 26.71% and 2.27% 0f the vegetated areas. C0rrelati0n analyses indicated that rising precipitati0n fr0m May t0 August was resp0nsible f0r increased vegetati0n c0ver in areas with p0sitive trends in gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI. H0wever, there was n0 similar significant c0rrelati0n between gr0wing seas0n mean NDVI and precipitati0n in regi0ns where vegetati0n c0ver declined thr0ugh0ut 0ur study peri0d. Using spatial statistics, we f0und that veeetati0n c0ver freauentlvdeclined in areas within the 2,500-3,100 m vertical z0ne, where it has steep sl0pe, and is 0n the sunny side 0f m0untains. Here, the p0sitive influences 0f increasing precipitati0n c0uld n0t 0ffset the drier c0nditi0ns that 0ccurred thr0ugh warming trends. In c0ntrast, in higher elevati0n z0nes （3,900-4,500 m） 0n the shaded side 0f the m0untains, rising temperatures and increasing precipitati0n impr0ved c0nditi0ns f0r vegetati0n gr0wth. Increased precipitati0n als0 facilitated vegetati0n gr0wth in areas experiencing warming trends at l0wer elevati0ns （2,000-2,400 m） and 0n l0wer sl0pes where water was m0re easily c0nserved. We suggest that spatial differences in variati0n in vegetati0n as the result 0f climate change depend 0n l0cal m0isture and thermal c0nditi0ns, which are mainly c0ntr0lled by t0p0graphy （e.g. elevati0n, aspect, and sl0pe）, and 0ther fact0rs, such as l0cal hydr0l0gy.     

Land use and land cover change within the Koshi River Basin of the central Himalayas since 1990

Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change.Land use and land cover have changed considerably due to increasing human activities and climate change,which has become the core issue of major international research projects.This study interprets land use and land cover status and the changes within the Koshi River Basin(KRB)using Landsat remote sensing(RS)image data,and employs logistic regression model to analyze the influence of natural and socioeconomic driving forces on major land cover changes.The results showed that the areas of built-up land,bare land and forest in KRB increased from 1990 to 2015,including the largest increases in forest and the highest growth rate in construction land.Areas of glacier,grassland,sparse vegetation,shrub land,cropland,and wetland all decreased over the study period.From the perspective of driving analysis,the role of human activities in land use and land cover change is significant than climate factors.Cropland expansion is the reclamation of cropland by farmers,mainly from early deforestation.However,labor force separation,geological disasters and drought are the main factors of cropland shrinkage.The increase of forest area in India and Nepal was attributed to the government’s forest protection policies,such as Nepal’s community forestry has achieved remarkable results.The expansion and contraction of grassland were both dominated by climatic factors.The probability of grassland expansion increases with temperature and precipitation,while the probability of grassland contraction decreases with temperature and precipitation.     

南方亚热带季风区将乐县森林植被动态变化及其对气候变化的响应

在全球气候变化背景下,植被动态变化以及植被对气候变化的响应方式已经成为生态学和地理学领域的热点。本文对比分析了南方亚热带季风区将乐县不同类型森林植被对不同时间尺度的干旱响应的差别。基于2000-2017年MODIS-EVI数据及气象站点数据,用最大值合成法、趋势分析法以及相关分析法,分析了森林植被及气象因子的动态变化特征,并对比不同森林植被对气候变化响应的差别。研究表明：① 2000-2017年,研究区植被覆盖度、EVI和降水均显著增加,区域内湿度增加,森林长势渐趋良好;② EVI在生长季初期和末期与同期的降水、温度均显著正相关（P<0.1）,初期森林受降水因子的影响更大,末期受温度因子的影响大;③ 1-3月和周年的气候变化对森林的生长至关重要,长时间尺度的湿度增加对森林生长具有显著的促进作用,SPEI的时间尺度越长与EVI的相关性也越大;④ 针阔混交林与同期温度、降水的相关系数最高,并且与不同时间尺度的SPEI相关性均比较高,属于气候敏感型林型,在生产经营中要谨慎预防气候变化对该林型带来的伤害;⑤ 森林覆盖度变化与降水和SPEI_24的相关性极显著,长时间尺度的降水变化是影响森林植被覆盖率变化的重要因素之一。     

Comparison of the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation between the Changbai Mountains of eastern Eurasia and the Appalachian Mountains of eastern North America

The Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains have similar spatial contexts. The elevation, latitude, and moisture gradients of both mountain ranges offer regional insight for investigating the vegetation dynamics in eastern Eurasia and eastern North America. We determined and compared the spatial patterns and temporal trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains using time series data from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation dataset from 1982 to 2013. The spatial pattern of NDVI in the Changbai Mountains exhibited fragmentation, whereas NDVI in the Appalachian Mountains decreased from south to north. The vegetation dynamics in the Changbai Mountains had an insignificant trend at the regional scale, whereas the dynamics in the Appalachian Mountains had a significant increasing trend. NDVI increased in 55% of the area of the Changbai Mountains and in 95% of the area of the Appalachian Mountains. The peak NDVI occurred one month later in the Changbai Mountains than in the Appalachian Mountains. The results revealed a significant increase in NDVI in autumn in both mountain ranges. The climatic trend in the Changbai Mountains included warming and decreased precipitation, and whereas that in the Appalachian Mountains included significant warming and increased precipitation. Positive and negative correlations existed between NDVI and temperature and precipitation, respectively, in both mountain ranges. Particularly, the spring temperature and NDVI exhibited a significant positive correlation in both mountain ranges. The results of this study suggest that human actives caused the differences in the spatial patterns of NDVI and that various characteristics of climate change and intensity of human actives dominated the differences in the NDVI trends between the Changbai Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains. Additionally, the vegetation dynamics of both mountain ranges were not identical to those in previous broader-scale studies.     

青藏高原月NDVI时空动态变化及其对气候变化的 响应

青藏高原脆弱的高寒植被对外界干扰十分敏感,使其成为研究植被对气候变化响应的理想区域之一。青藏高原气候变化剧烈,在较短的合成时间研究气候变化对植被的影响十分必要。因此,本文利用GIMMS NDVI时间序列数据集,研究了1982-2012年青藏高原生长季月尺度植被生长的时空动态变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量和日照时数等气候因子的响应关系。结果表明：在区域尺度上,除8月外,其他各月份植被均呈增加趋势,显著增加多发生在4-7月和9月;大部分月份的NDVI增加速率随着时段的延长显著减小,表明NDVI增加趋势放缓;在像元尺度上,月NDVI显著变化的区域多呈增加趋势,但显著减少范围的扩张多快于显著增加。4月和7月植被生长主要是受气温和日照时数共同作用,6月和9月受气温的控制,而8月则主要受降水量的影响。长时间序列NDVI数据集的出现为采用嵌套时段研究植被生长变化趋势奠定了前提,而植被活动变化趋势的持续性则有助于形象表征植被活动变化过程、深入理解植被对气候变化的响应和预测植被未来生长变化趋势。由此推测,青藏高原月NDVI未来增加趋势总体上趋于缓和,但在像元尺度显著变化的区域趋于增加。