用随机模拟方法研究设定地震的地面运动参数

本文从强地面运动随机模拟方法应用出发,提出了一种用中小地震的数字观测资料确定研究区路径、场地参数的方法。采用该方法,分离软基岩场地联合效应和非弹性衰减的影响,并把二者分别确定出来。这些参数可以直接用于研究区软基岩场地的地面运动随机模拟。     

用随机模拟方法研究设定地震地面运动

用随机模拟方法研究设定地震地面运动可分两步进行：（1）采用中小地震的数字观测资料确定研究区路径、场地参数;（2）把确定的参数应用到研究区的强地面运动随机模拟中. 为此,本文首先采用了一种可行的方法,分离软基岩场地效应和非弹性衰减的影响,并把二者分别确定出来. 研究区北部中软基岩场地的平均效应在2～4Hz频率范围为15倍左右;研究区的S波品质因子为QS＝278f[KG*2]0.346. 把这些参数用于研究区的场地和路径模型中,并选择单拐角频率震源谱模型,随机模拟了研究区未来中强地震可能在北天山中段可能造成的地面运动,模拟加速度时程和反应谱可以服务于本地区的地震灾害预测和建筑物可靠性验算.     

GIS技术在地震学研究中的应用

地理信息系统(Geographic Information Systems，简称GIS)是处理空间信息的强大工具.目前GIS技术广泛应用于地震分析预报、地震灾害预测和辅助决策、地震区划等地震学研究领域.我国目前已开始进行这方面的研究，并取得重大进展和成果.本文具体论述了GIS在我国地震学中的应用状况，分析了目前存在的问题，给出了解决问题的方法.     

Site effects by generalized inversion technique using strong motion recordings of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

The generalized inversion of S-wave amplitude spectra from the free-field strong motion recordings of the China National Strong Motion Observation Network System (NSMONS) are used to evaluate the site effects in the Wenchuan area. In this regard, a total of 602 recordings from 96 aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake with magnitudes of M3.7-M6.5 were selected as a dataset. These recordings were obtained from 28 stations at a hypocenter distance ranging from 30 km to 150 km. The inversion results have been verified as reliable by comparing the site response at station 62WUD using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT) and the Standard Spectral Ratio method (SSR). For all 28 stations, the site predominant frequency F _p and the average site amplification in different frequency bands of 1.0–5.0 Hz, 5.0–10.0 Hz and 1.0–10.0 Hz have been calculated based on the inversion results. Compared with the results from the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method, it shows that the HVSR method can reasonably estimate the site predominant frequency but underestimates the site amplification. The linear fitting between the average site amplification for each frequency band and the V _s20 (the average uppermost-20 m shear wave velocity) shows good correlation. A distance measurement called the asperity distance D _Aspt is proposed to reasonably characterize the source-to-site distance for large earthquakes. Finally, the inversed site response is used to identify the soil nonlinearity in the main shock and aftershocks of Wenchuan earthquake. In ten of the 28 stations analyzed in the main shock, the soil behaved nonlinearly, where the ground motion level is apparently beyond a threshold of PGA > 300 cm/s² or PGV > 20 cm/s, and only one station coded 51SFB has evidence of soil nonlinear behavior in the aftershocks.     

俯冲带耦合作用对苏门答腊地区应变场影响的三维数值模拟

采用有限元方法模拟了俯冲带耦合作用对巽他弧及其邻区的影响.根据模拟结果,对比GPS、地震和地质学观测数据,定量分析了苏门答腊及其周边地区的应变强度和主应变方向的分布特征,据此探讨了该区构造特征、地震发生模式与耦合面积之间的关系.模型由具有黏弹性性质的岩石圈和软流圈上地幔组成,其中岩石圈包括了大陆岩石圈和大洋岩石圈以及俯冲至上地幔中的俯冲板片.研究结果如下:(1) 通过对不同俯冲带耦合面积模拟,发现苏门答腊前弧伴随耦合面积的增加应变强度逐渐增大,而增大的应变强度又影响了其周边地区的应变分布特征,因此整个苏门答腊前弧呈现出明显的分段性,这与该区地震破裂模式有较好的对应.(2)苏门答腊北部地区主应变方向与南部相比存在一定的差异,该差异是俯冲带的俯冲方向、俯冲速度、俯冲形态以及不同区域间耦合面积共同作用的结果.(3)虽然苏门答腊2004年地震主震区处于弱耦合状态,但从本文模拟的结果中可以看到,在俯冲作用下该区依然存在垂直向下的位移,这为地震激发海啸提供了有利的构造环境.     

基于EMD和VARMA模型的地震动仿真

通过EMD方法将地震动分解成若干固有模态函数,提出了用固有模态函数的时变VARMA建模实现地震动仿真的思路。算例分析表明,该方法充分利用了固有模态函数的特性,解决了直接基于ARMA或VARMA模型建模的仿真方法所面临的模型判阶的难题,并可同时考虑地震动的强度和频率非平稳特性,使仿真地震动与实际地震动在能量时频分布特性上具有较好的一致性且样本统计性较好,弹性及弹塑性反应谱拟合精度较高。     

Monitoring earthquake precursor field of NW Yunnan by stress remote sensing

The orbit perturbation of meteorologic satellite is used for the inversion of stress drop dynamic field of regional crustal structure. Rapid scanning over vast area is carried out to obtain short term earthquake-generating precursor field of seismic source and near-source districts in order to predict the three earthquake elements: epicenter, magnitude and commencement time of earthquake with the same effect as weather forecast. Taking the strong earthquakes that occurred in recent years in the NW of Yunnan as examples, direct deduction has been made for Lijiang and Wuding earthquakes, and curves of dynamic characteristics of stress drop before and after earthquakes as well as abnormal fluctuations of precursor stress drop and commencement time of earthquake have been plotted.     

Simulation of spatially correlated earthquake ground motions for engineering purposes

A new model to simulate spatially correlated earthquake ground motions is developed. In the model, the main factors that characterize three distinct effects of spatial variability, namely, the incoherency effect, the wave-passage effect and the site-response effect, are taken into account, and corresponding terms/parameters are incorporated into the well known model of uniform ground motions. Some of these terms/parameters can be determined by the root operation, and others can be calculated directly. The proposed model is fi rst verif ied theoretically, and examples of ground motion simulations are provided as a further illustration. It is proven that the ensemble expected value and the ensemble auto-/cross-spectral density functions of the simulated ground motions are identical to the target spectral density functions. The proposed model can also be used to simulate other correlated stochastic processes, such as wave and wind loads.     

张北地震在北京市激发的二维强地面运动的模拟

张北县距离北京市约200多km,1998年1月的张北地震是近期北京周边地区发生的一次较强规模的地震,研究它在北京地区引起的强地面运动,有助于分析首都圈内的地震危害性,为地震减灾提供理论帮助.本文利用新的计算工具-局域离散波数法,模拟了张北地震激发的包括来自上地壳、moho面反射波、首播等在内的全波场在北京西部引起的2D强地面运动,分析了该区内第三纪、第四纪沉积地层对于地震的放大效应,得出的主要结论有,薄的第四纪沉积盖层的地点放大效应比厚的第三纪盖层的大很多,说明介质物性是决定地点放大效应的根本原因;不同物性的沉积盖层,在R、Z分量上的放大作用不一样,体现了地点放大效应的复杂性,值得在今后的研究中继续探讨.     

Simulation of near-fault bedrock strong ground-motion field by explicit finite element method

Based on presumed active fault and corresponding model, this paper predicted the near-fault ground motion filed of a scenario earthquake （Mw=6 3/4 ） in an active fault by the explicit finite element method in combination with the source time function with improved transmitting artificial boundary and with high-frequency vibration contained. The results indicate that the improved artificial boundary is stable in numerical computation and the predicted strong ground motion has a consistent characteristic with the observed motion.     

Methodologies of preparing erosion features map by using RS and GIS

The erosion features map is one of the basic maps in erosion and sediment studies and watershed management programs. Some methodologies of preparing erosion features map by using RS and GIS were compared in research which took place in the Jajrood sub-basin in north-east Tehran, Iran. In the first phase, four working units＇ maps were prepared by integration a） plant cover, geology and slope b） land use, geology and slope c） land use, rocks sensitivity to erosion and slope and d） land use, rocks sensitivity to erosion and land units＇ layers. In addition to these four working units＇ maps, three more maps were also evaluated in separating erosion features including e） land units f） sensitivity of rocks to erosion and g） image photomorphic units. The efficiency of these seven working units＇ maps was evaluated by 314 control points. For this purpose, by using erosion features of control points regarding field views, surface, rill, gully and channel erosion maps were prepared and compared by crossing them with working units＇ maps. Results showed that method ＂d＂ was better than ＂a＂, ＂b＂ and ＂c＂ in providing soil erosion features regarding economic and executive considerations. The accuracy of methods ＂e＂ and ＂f＂ was 53.0 and 42.9% and their Root Mean Squared Error was more than method ＂g＂ and methods ＂a＂ to ＂d＂. The coefficient of variation was highest for methods ＂e＂ and ＂f＇ and the least for method ＂e＂ and the greatest precision was related to image interpretation.     

液化场地地震反应的离散元数值模拟

采用一个描述饱和砂土中固相颗粒和液相流体耦合的离散元数值模型,固相颗粒采用离散元的颗粒流理论(PFC)模拟,液相流体通过求解平均Navier-Stokes方程的计算流体动力学(CFD)技术计算.采用上述模犁数值模拟了在地震荷载作用液化场地的加速度、剪应力、剪应变时程以及超孔隙水压力和土层表面位移的发展过程.数值模拟结果...     

建筑物震害空间分布模拟GIS方法

提出了一个基于GIS技术的建筑物震害空间分布模拟方法，该方法首先利用GIS的模拟活化技术把地震影响场，建筑震害预测等分析模型形成可供空间分析使用的二次数据，并纳入城市基础数据库之中，构成综合基础数据库。然后利用GIS把多重空间数据进行空间复合，给出城市建筑物震害的空间分布及其统计特征，并识别出城市建筑物的重灾区。最后利用东营市建筑区为例，说明该方法的实用性和有效性。     

Simulation of digital earthquake accelerograms using the inverse discrete Fourier transform

Acceleration time histories of horizontal earthquake ground motion are obtained by inverting the discrete Fourier transform, which is defined by modelling the probability distribution of the Fourier phase differences conditional on the Fourier amplitude. The Fourier amplitude spectrum is modelled as a scaled, lognormal probability density function. Three parameters are necessary to define the Fourier amplitude spectrum. They are the total energy of the accelerogram, the central frequency, and the spectral bandwidth. The Fourier phase differences are simulated conditional on the Fourier amplitudes. The amplitudes are classified into three categories: small, intermediate and large. For each amplitude category, a beta distribution or a combination of a beta distribution and a uniform distribution are defined for the phase differences. Seven parameters are needed to completely define the phase difference distributions: two for each of the three beta distributions, and the weight of the uniform distribution for phase differences corresponding to small Fourier amplitudes. Approximately 300 uniformly processed horizontal ground motion records from recent California earthquakes are used to develop prediction formulas for the model parameters, as well as to validate the simulation model. The moment magnitude of the earthquakes ranges from 5.8 to 7.3. The source to site distance for all the records is less than 100 km. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of the time-space evolution of an extratropical cyclonic precipitation field over USA

The time-space evolution of an extratropical cyclonic precipitation field over U S A is simulated in a stochastic setting as outlined in Kavvas et al. (1988). The birth of a cyclonic storm is characterized by the simultaneous birth of a cyclone center and births of subsynoptic precipitation areas (SPA) at preferred locations around the cyclone center. The precipitation cores and cells which are used as the fundamental building blocks of the SPAs are approximated by circular precipitation areas (CPA) of different sizes. The time space evolution of the precipitation field after the birth is governed by (1) the movement of the synoptic cyclone described by the cyclone center trajectory, (2) independent nonidentically distributed random velocities of the individual CPAs relative to the cyclone center, (3) the births of new CPAs in time and space relative to the cyclone center, (4) the independent evolution in time of the individual spatially uniform intensities of the existing CPAs, (5) the expansion and shrinkage of the existing CPAs in the course of movement and (6) the dissipation (death) of a random number of existing CPAs within the cyclonic system. The computer simulation, the results of which are presented in this paper, successfully reproduced the general mesoscale and synoptic scale features of the radar detected cyclonic rain fields as observed by Austin and Houze (1972), Houze et al. (1976), Hobbs (1978), Hobbs and Locatelli (1978), Houze (1981), Houze and Hobbs (1982) and others.     

Method of prediction of earthquake by using seismisity

The method of prediction of earthquake by using seismisity (MPES) is to make use of the message of earthquakes (including large, middle, small) in pre-period to predict large earthquake in post-period. Some better methods are presented in this paper which are selected among many means used in our country recent years. These methods are classified into six sets: 1. Method of spatial pattern; 2. Method of time process; 3. Method of seismic sequence; 4. Method of earthquake correlation; 5. Method of parameters of seismic source and medium; 6. Comprehensive method. Prediction effects of each method are evaluated with unique score. The value of each method, scoreR, are generally in a range between 0.3 and 0.6. This value only represents internal consistency, however, the ability of actual prediction belongs to the extensional effect, which is generally lower than the value of internal consistency. If the ability of actual prediction could be evaluated withR = 0.3, the ability of prediction of earthquake by seismicity will be stated as following: If most of earthquakes must be predicted, the warning time needs to take seventy percent of whole time period of prediction; If half earthquakes must be predicted, the warning time needs to take twenty percent of whole time period of prediction. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 239–252, 1993.     

利用区域大气静电场监测网临震预估地震灾害

本文通过震例研究提出一种临震前形成晴天大气静电信号异常的物理机制.在大震临震阶段,震中区域附近地壳结构发生临界变化,产生大量的岩石微破碎,岩缝间的通道很可能相互连通起来,并通过土壤缝隙,将包含微量元素的气体释放到空中,其中放射性同位素在弥散到空中的过程中不断产生衰变,特别是产生α粒子的放射性电离辐射.这使得大气充满异常多的正负离子,这些异常多的正负离子可能会产生与晴天大气相反的极化电场并被仪器监测到.本文提出了利用这种晴天大气异常静电信号来评估灾害性大震事件发生的组网监测方法,以及确定潜在震中位置、震级大小和发震时段的技术思路.

     

田庄等测点周围的磁场梯度测量

磁场梯度测量是选建地磁测点过程中的一项重要工作。在田庄、灵山、东兴庄测点周围，进行了磁场梯度的一般测量与详细测量，结果显示，各测桩的水平方向与垂直方向的磁场梯度均不大于１．０ｎＴ／ｍ。完全符合磁测规范的要求。     

利用2018年伽师小震群强震动记录分析区域场地特征

2018年9月伽师地区发生震群事件,连续发生18次M3.0地震,最大震级M 5.5,获取大量强震动记录,初步分析此次震群强震动记录特征、记录峰值比、场地地震反应,结果发现:加速度记录峰值在震中距30 km范围内衰减较快,震中距30—100 km范围内衰减平缓;强震动加速度记录峰值水平向与垂直向比值为1—3,均值约1.5;场地共振频率为0.48—1.56 Hz,平均放大倍数为8.4—9.5。