中国海洋油气资源开发与国家石油安全战略对策

石油是中国能源安全的核心问题,随着我国石油供应对外依赖程度的增大,石油安全问题越来越突出,将会成为我国21世纪经济、社会可持续发展面临的一个重要问题。我国是海洋油气资源丰富的国家,广阔的海域中分布着近100×10⁴km²的含油沉积盆地,近海石油资源量为240×10⁸t,天然气资源量为140×10¹²m³。海洋油气资源的开发利用,将能部分解决我国油气资源进口数量。本文讨论了解决石油安全的四种模式,对我国油气安全的国际和国内条件进行了分析,提出了解决我国油气安全的战略对策。     

中非石油合作的战略意义与重点区域选择

非洲是我国重要的战略合作伙伴,石油资源丰富,是世界八大产油区之一。近十年来非洲石油的产量及出口量迅速增长,在国际能源格局中地位越来越重要。随着我国经济社会的快速发展,我国石油进口规模不断扩大,对外依赖程度日益加深,石油安全问题也日益突出,使得中非石油合作在我国能源战略中的地位不断上升。通过对非洲主要石油生产大国资源与生产情况的比较,提出中非石油合作的重点区域是陆上的北非和海上的西非几内亚湾,并就进一步加强中非石油合作提出了对策建议。     

我国石油进口海陆统筹战略研究

我国是世界上第二大石油消费国和进口国,石油进口安全问题不容忽视。从我国石油的供需状况出发,分析研究了我国石油进口的空间格局和运输线路,指出了中存在的问题：来源上过于依赖中东地区,线路上过于依赖海上运输和马六甲通道。本文提出了加快建设中缅油气管道、兴建中巴原油管道、扩容中哈和中俄原油管道、加快东海和南海油田的开发4 点建议,旨在改善我国石油进口的安全形势,打造我国的东北、西北、西南陆上和海上四大油气进口通道的战略格局,使石油运输渠道多元化,实现石油进口的海陆统筹。     

中日东海石油之争及对我国的启示

随着世界经济的发展,各国对石油的依赖程度越来越高,于是石油被成为经济的“晴雨表”。在石油领域的争夺也日趋激烈,各国纷纷建立自己的石油储备体系,以保障自己的石油安全。中日东海石油之争愈演愈烈,其不仅涉及到我国的石油安全、经济安全,还涉及到政治安全乃至国家安全。关注东海问题,既是维护我国经济和政治安全的需要,更是建立我国能源安全战略的重要组成。     

中国石油开采业对外直接投资的机遇与挑战

伴随着经济的高速发展,中国能源的消耗亦大幅度增长,已成为世界第一位的能源消费大国。目前国内生产或以贸易进口石油已无法满足需求。在这种形势下,对外直接投资是保证能源供给的可行路径之一。根据商务部对外投资统计公报等数据,从中国能源产业近年对外投资特征入手,着重探讨了石油开采业在世界范围内对外直接投资的行业背景与投资模式,具体分析了中国石油企业对外投资的机遇与挑战,以期为中国石油开采业的"走出去"战略提供相应的应对措施。     

非洲在世界石油供给格局中的地位演变

21世纪以来,非洲已成为世界石油进口大国寻求来源地多元化、保障自身石油安全的战略高地,也成为我国的第二大石油来源地。考察非洲在世界石油供给格局中的地位及演变,有利于系统把握非洲石油供给的优劣势,为优化我国对非石油合作战略提供依据。本文以国家为研究单元,综合运用箱线图和空间聚类分析法,创新份额和位序综合分析法,对比考察了...     

美国对伊朗石油禁运与全球能源安全

2018年6月美国针对伊朗启动了史上最严厉的石油禁运政策,要求所有国家于11月停止从伊朗进口石油,否则相关国家和企业都将面临美国的经济制裁,并无意给予任何国家豁免权。当前,中国、日本、韩国、印度和欧盟等世界重要的石油进口国已经做出回应,除中国明确拒绝美国的单边制裁继续保持与伊朗的石油贸易外,其他主要石油进口国都大量削减从伊朗的石油进口。沙特阿拉伯等石油生产国也承诺通过石油增产来维护全球能源市场的稳定,以支持美国对伊朗的制裁。在经济全球化的大趋势下,美国对伊朗的石油禁运,势必引发全球能源市场的动荡,改变全球石油政治格局以及相关利益方的石油权益。这些方面会涉及到全球油价的波动、不同国家的石油安全与应对政策、世界能源贸易稳定与地缘政治格局的变动等。长期关注能源地缘政治的专家学者围绕美国对伊朗的石油禁运可能产生的影响发表观点,专家们认为美国此举是战略两难的困境,短期内对将会引起世界石油短缺及油价波动,甚至可能导致OPEC减产协议崩溃,改变世界主要进口国的进口规模以及来源结构,但对世界石油市场的长期影响有限。伊朗将寻求打折出售原油、替代港口出口以及多元化出口3条生存路径,目前最大的隐患是伊朗或将封锁霍尔木兹海峡,但是此举目前可能性不大。伊朗石油禁运具有长期性和复杂性,对中国既是机遇也是挑战,中国在“一带一路”倡议下与伊朗保持正常的石油贸易是双赢的选择,但需要谨慎对待由此引发的能源地缘政治的风险,提升能源安全应对的措施。期待各方观点对伊朗石油禁运引发的能源地缘政治格局以及中国的能源安全的解析,能够为相关政策制定者提供理论借鉴。     

去年全国石油天然气探明储量保持高位增长

<正>近日,中国国土资源部储量司举行新闻发布会,国土资源部储量司副司长许大纯通报了2013年我国油气及主要固体矿产资源储量的最新数据。他说,石油天然气是影响经济社会可持续发展的战略资源,世界各国高度重视,目前我国的石油对外依存度已超过50%,面对当今世界纷繁复杂的石油格局,只有实现我国油气储量稳定增长,才能有效增强我国能源安全供应的保障能力。     

南海对中国石油安全的战略意义

石油的突出地位是毋庸置疑的，它的意义和作用远远超过了其他资源，与国家战略、全球政治、国际关系和国际势力紧密交织在一起。种种迹象表明，21世纪上半叶，石油仍然是工业世界和信息社会安全、繁荣、稳定的关键因素，石油安全也仍然是国家战略的重要组成部分。     

美国油气监管的透明“神器”

<正>美国总统奥巴马上任时推动能源革命的呼声言犹在耳,短短6年时间,美国即将跃升为全球最大的石油生产国。而"页岩气革命"是推动这一成绩实现的重要因素,它既彻底改变了美国能源结构,也深刻影响着世界能源格局。在美国,推动油气行业良性发展的最有力"武器",当属各州政府实行的油气上游勘探开发信息透明化制度。各州政府一般根据辖区内油气生产和环境保护的实际情况,出台强制性法规,在勘探、开采等油气生产上游作业环节进行规范,并通过行政程序透明化等手段,对所有油气生产商提交的数据资料进行公示。公示     

State Legitimacy and the Unending Crisis of Petrol Subsidy Reforms in Nigeria

Why would the citizens of an oil-producing state continually resist reform-induced petrol price increases, even when subsidy payments are proved to be a serious threat to the capacity of the state to deliver its core constitutional mandates? In this paper, we tackle this question by contending that the difficulty in petrol subsidy implementation in a country like Nigeria has more to do with the clear lack of state legitimacy and public trust, and the recorded cases of political instability entrenched by forced attempts at reforms. By contextualizing the reform efforts in Nigeria within the framework of the relationship between state legitimacy and reforms, we are able to provide valid insights to a broader understanding of the “whys” of public resistance to the authority of the state to enforce reform. The Nigerian case, as revealed in this article, provides evidence of a shift in paradigm from the conventional and dominant Weberian emphasis of state legitimacy around the nature and sources of state authorities to a more functional context of citizens’ perception of the governance process as a source of legitimacy.     

Changing Perspectives in High School World Geography: 1950–2005

Abstract

This study set out to better understand the changing links between geography and citizenship. Content analysis was conducted on eighteen high school world geography textbooks and state/national standards. Interviews were conducted with teachers and textbook authors. Five significant changes were noted: decline of national orientation and a greater focus on non-Western cultures; greater emphasis upon consumption over production; the accentuation of values clarification; increasing coverage of basic or prevocational skills; and standardization of format and content in textbooks. Many of these changes point towards a new cosmopolitan citizenship model, although some teachers and state social studies standards still see geography from a national perspective.     

Predicting the Peak in World Oil Production

The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regions, particularly that of the US, from which it was derived. A more careful application of the EIA model, using the same resource estimates, indicates that at best non-OPEC oil production can increase for less than two decades, and should begin to decline at the latest sometime between 2015 and 2020. OPEC at this point will completely control the world oil market and will need to meet increased demand as well as compensate for declining production of non-OPEC producers. OPEC could control the market even sooner than this, given its larger share of proven oil reserves, probable difficulties in transforming non-OPEC undiscovered reserves into proven reserves, and the converging interests of all oil producers as reserves are depleted. This has significant implications for the world economy and for US national security.     

Energy and the Environment: The Relationship Between Coal Production and the Environment in China

China, with the world’s largest population, is one of the most rapidly growing countries and the largest consumer of energy in the world. It possesses the second largest coal reserves globally and is the largest producer of coal in the world. Approximately 95% of the coal produced in China is from underground mining, which causes serious environmental and water quality problems. This paper investigates the relationship between coal production and the environment using a spatial econometric methods. The results indicate that electricity production and waste water have the greatest influence on coal production. Findings from this study are helpful to policy makers for designing environmental regulations in the coal production industry in China.     

大城市地区农村改革的政治生态学分析--以北京市农村地区为例

运用政治生态学(politicalecology)的基本观点,以北京市农村地区为对象,在对平原、丘陵、山区4个不同类型村庄多年实地调查基础上,分析了在政治体制改革、市场经济影响下北京郊区农村的组织形态、产业结构、土地利用、耕地质量、生态环境的变化过程。研究揭示,1979以来北京农村政治改革与生态环境的关系与其他的农村地区不同,国家与地方政府的政策变化使北京农村生态环境在不同时期呈现出恶化-改善的波动性过程;根据长期研究,政体改革、政策变化在总体上起到了抑制生态恶化、改善农村环境的作用。     

世界毒品生产的地理分布及其空间扩散

本文首先阐述了毒品的内涵，揭示了毒品的非法生产和非法贸易给人类社会带来的严重恶果，探讨了世界毒品生产的地理分布及其新动向。着重分析了世界三大毒品生产区域“金三角”，“金新月”和“银三角”的毒品生产现状，以此基础上，描述了世界毒品的空间扩散。最后指出，由于多种原因，世界禁毒任重而道远。     

Location Decisions and Network Configurations of Foreign Investment in Urban China∗

This article studies location decisions and network configurations of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu Province, located in the northwest of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Built on the perspective that China's economic transition can be conceptualized as a triple process of globalization, marketization, and decentralization, this article outlines four structural changes of the Chinese economy that are underlying the location and networks of FDI: decentralization and the empowerment of local states, marketization and the increasing importance of places, globalization and the emergence of globalizing city regions, and urban spatial restructuring. The study has uncovered substantial intraurban differences within Nanjing and the significance of the Chinese state, location within the YRD, and intraurban context in the location decisions for FDI. We have also found that foreign ventures overwhelmingly serve as production facilities for either the Chinese or world markets, and maintain close production relations with other foreign firms in the YRD. Finally, regression models have identified the significance of national-level development zones, access to ports, and industrial land in the location of foreign ventures.     

Spare Capacity (2003) and Peak Production in World Oil

Reliable estimates of minimum spare capacity for world oil production can be obtained by comparing production statistics before and following the collapse of the Iraqi oil industry in March 2003. Spare production was at least 3.2 M b/d (million barrels/day), and was concentrated in the Middle East, mostly in Saudi Arabia (1.7 M b/d), but also in Kuwait and the UAE. This indicates that, assuming Iraqi production returns to its prewar level, a peak in world oil production resulting from resource constraints alone (ignoring political factors) before 2008 can be rejected. This also implies that with an invigorated Iraqi industry, and with further increases in production in the Former Soviet Union and other non-OPEC areas, there would be significant short-term downward pressure on oil prices and strains within OPEC. These transient issues do not alter the projection for a resource-constrained peak or plateau in non-OPEC production between 2010 and 2018.     

1971-2015年世界铁矿石资源供需与流动格局及其演变

本文研究了1971—2015年世界铁矿石供需与流动格局的时空变化,结果显示：① 世界铁矿石年产量期末比期初增加了12.26亿t,年均增长2.17%;1992年以前,欧洲曾是世界铁矿石的消费重心,但随后亚洲后来居上。② 研究期内世界铁矿石输出量年均增长达3.7%,大洋洲和南美洲成为铁矿石的主要输出地,2015年占世界的比重分别达53.73%和26.23%;本世纪以来铁矿石输入量最大的是中国、日本和韩国,2015年分别占世界总量的65.07%、8.94%和5%。③ 基于“场”理论,采用位势、“源”、“汇”、迹线等概念审视全球铁矿石流场的基本特征和流场成因,发现世界铁矿石流动的“位势”北半球较低,而南半球较高;亚洲、欧洲是主要的汇流场,大洋洲、南美洲是主要的源流场。本文研究揭示了近半个世纪以来世界铁矿石资源的流动状态及其演变过程,对于我国科学地制定产业政策具有重要价值。     

经济全球化背景下中国经济发展空间格局的演变趋势研究

全球化已经成为对国家、地区和企业制定发展策略产生重要影响的因素之一。参与经济全球化已经对中国区域发展空间格局产生了重要影响。在分析中国国际贸易和利用外资现状及发展趋势的基础上,根据相关理论预测了在经济全球化趋势下中国未来区域发展空间格局的可能情景。中国的比较生产成本和市场规模优势仍将对外商直接投资形成较大的吸引力,将进一步强化中国作为"世界工厂"的地位。随着中国进一步参与经济全球化,外资和外贸的发展将促进和强化中国的"T"型空间格局的形成。在这个"T"型空间骨架上将形成若干个以主要门户城市为核心的、具有一定国际竞争力的大都市经济区。