The end of an affair? Geography and fertility in late post‐transitional societies

A common theme in the writings of population geographers with a fertility interest has been a concern with the convergence of interregional fertility differentials. It is now clear, however, that the widespread achievement in western societies of below‐replacement fertility has resulted in a dramatic diminution of most forms of differential fertility, whether sectoral or spatial. The question of ‘what remains for the spatial analyst working in the traditional ecological mode?’ must therefore be posed. An analysis of small‐area fertility differentials in NSW in 1986 suggests (a) that most of the variability in local marital and total fertility is not statistically significant, and (b) that even if this problem is ignored, traditional ecological analysis has only trivial ‘explanatory’ power. While complete spatial uniformity is unlikely ever to be achieved, it is argued that the intrasocietal convergence of reproductive norms and behaviour has proceeded so far that conventional geographic approaches to the analysis of fertility are unlikely any longer to be — if they ever were — fruitful.     

A comparative analysis of DEM‐based models to estimate the solar radiation in mountainous terrain

Daily solar radiation estimates of four up‐to‐date solar radiation models (Solar Analyst, r.sun, SRAD and Solei‐32), based on a digital elevation model (DEM), have been evaluated and compared in a Mediterranean environment characterized by a complex topography. The models' estimates were evaluated against 40 days of radiometric data collected in 14 stations. Analyzed sky conditions ranged from completely overcast conditions to clear skies. Additionally, the role of the spatial resolution of the DEM has been evaluated through the use of two different resolutions: 20 and 100 m. Results showed that, under clear‐sky conditions, the daily solar radiation variability in the study area may be reasonably estimated with mean bias errors under 10% and root mean square error values of around 15%. On the other hand, results proved that the reliability of the estimates substantially decreases under overcast conditions for some of the solar radiation models. Regarding the role of the DEM spatial resolution, results suggested that the reliability of the estimates for complex topography areas under clear‐sky conditions improves using a higher spatial resolution.     

Distribution characteristics of SOM and nitrogen on the eastern slope of Gongga Mountain

Soil is the largest carbon pool of terrestrial ecosystem, and its carbon content accounts for two thirds of the whole terrestrial ecosystem (Schlesinger, 1990). The soil organic matter (SOM) content and turnover rate exert impacts directly on the terrestrial ecosystem and global carbon cycles. Nitrogen is the main limiting factor constraining the plant growth (Vitousek etal., 1997; Pamela etal., 2002). Changes of the nitrogen content will change the microbial respiration through changing the…     

An integrated TIN and Grid method for constructing multi‐resolution digital terrain models

Multi‐resolution terrain models are an efficient approach to improve the speed of three‐dimensional (3D) visualizations, especially for terrain visualization in Geographical Information Systems (GIS). As a further development to existing algorithms and models, a new model is proposed for the construction of multi‐resolution terrain models in a 3D GIS. The new model represents multi‐resolution terrains using two major methods for terrain representation: Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) and regular grid (Grid). In this paper, first, the concepts and formal definitions of the new model are presented. Second, the methodology for constructing multi‐resolution terrain models based on the new model is proposed. Third, the error of multi‐resolution terrain models is analysed, and a set of rules is proposed to retain the important features (e.g. boundaries of man‐made objects) within the multi‐resolution terrain models. Finally, several experiments are undertaken to test the performance of the new model. The experimental results demonstrate that the new model can be applied to construct multi‐resolution terrain models with good performance in terms of time cost and maintenance of the important features. Furthermore, a comparison with previous algorithms/models shows that the speed of rendering for 3D walking/flying through has been greatly improved by applying the new model.     

A new methodology for measuring coastline recession using buffering and non‐linear least squares estimation

Coastline recession is one of the best indicators of coastal erosion. Three methods for computing coastline recession – the baseline approach, the dynamic segmentation approach and the area‐based approach – have been used, each of which has one or more drawbacks. To overcome these problems, a new methodology for measuring coastline recession is proposed, using buffering and non‐linear least squares estimation. The proposed method was compared with the three existing methods with respect to two simulated cases and two real coastlines. Test results confirmed that the new method is more reliable than the three other methods, all of which are susceptible to variability of recession, scale, number of line segments, length of coastlines and direction of the baseline. The proposed method, incorporating two physically meaningful values – magnitude and variability of coastline recession according to the mean and standard deviation of coastline offsets, respectively – presents itself as an effective alternative method of assessing coastline recession.     

GIS‐based modeling of glacial hazards and their interactions using Landsat‐TM and IKONOS imagery

Hazard interactions in glacial and periglacial environments are of crucial importance due to their potential for causing major catastrophes. Nevertheless, glacial and periglacial hazards have usually been modeled separately to date. In this study, we therefore propose a methodological strategy for modeling and assessing glacial and periglacial hazard interactions on a regional scale, including ice avalanches, lake outbursts and periglacial debris flows. Due to climate‐related rapid changes in glacial and periglacial areas, methods which incorporate monitoring capacities are needed. Hence, the methods presented here are based on remote sensing data, which are particularly powerful for monitoring tasks, and GIS modeling. For ice avalanche and lake‐outburst hazard detection and modeling, we applied recently published methods based on Landsat‐TM imagery, terrain modeling and flow routing. For detection of potential debris‐flow initiation zones in steep debris reservoirs, we present a novel method based on image processing of IKONOS data and terrain modeling, followed by flow modeling. Using this method, we achieve the synthesis of the individual process modeling in order to assess the potential interactions. The modeling is applied to a study region in the central Swiss Alps. The results show that systematic modeling based on remote sensing and GIS is suitable for first‐order assessment of glacial and periglacial hazard interactions as well as assessments of possible consequences, including impacts on traffic routes and other infrastructure. Based on this, critical cases can be detected and analyzed by subsequent detailed studies.     

Access to natural resources and conflicts between farmers and agro‐pastoralists in Borkena Wetland,north‐eastern Ethiopia

This case study on the Borkena wetlands in north‐eastern Ethiopia tells, through the voices of the inhabitants, the story of the occupation and management of an area where agro‐pastoralists (Urrane) and farmers have progressively settled. It shows how different policy changes and natural disasters have transformed the type of peoples' livelihoods and land use patterns in the wetland. It tells the history of relationships between smallholder peasants, irrigation farmers, commercial farms, and the Urrane, where conflicts as well as collaboration developed, and it shows how different stakeholders behave and consider their own situation. The study also reveals that development intervention by World Vision Ethiopia (WVE) had mixed impact on peoples' livelihoods in the wetland: sedentary peasants have benefited while the Urrane have been adversely affected. The main issue is the marginalization of pastoralists, with the denial of their traditional land use rights by three successive regimes and administrations. Any solution to the cohabitation of the different groups and livelihoods will have to address the issue of land rights for the pastoralists and promote the fair participation of all stakeholders in the future management of the wetlands. Good governance and the competence of the state actors at local levels are the crucial issues for the realization of the suggested solutions.     

Soil C and N patterns in a semiarid piñon–juniper woodland: Topography of slope and ephemeral channels add to canopy–intercanopy heterogeneity

Carbon and nitrogen are crucial to semiarid woodlands, determining decomposition, production and redistribution of water and nutrients. Carbon and nitrogen are often greater beneath canopies than intercanopies. Upslope vs. downslope position and ephemeral channels might also cause variation in C and N. Yet, few studies have simultaneously evaluated spatial variation associated with canopy–intercanopy patches and topography. We estimated C and N upslope and downslope in an eroding piñon–juniper woodland for canopies beneath piñons (Pinus edulis) and junipers, (Juniperus monosperma), intercanopies, and ephemeral channels. Soil C and N in the surface and profile beneath canopies exceeded that of intercanopies and channels. Relative to intercanopies, channels had more profile C upslope but less downslope (profile N was not significant). Relative to upslope, profile C downslope for intercanopies was greater and for channels was less (profile N was not significant). Relative to profile, surface soil C and N exhibited less heterogeneity. Although some topographic heterogeneity was detected, results did not collectively support our redistribution hypotheses, and we are unable to distinguish if this heterogeneity is due to in situ or redistribution effects. Nonetheless, results highlight finer topographical spatial variation in addition to predominant canopy and intercanopy variation that is applicable for semiarid woodland management.     

Further assessment of flood‐ and drought‐dominated regimes in south‐eastern Australia

Kirkup et al. (1998) [Australian Geographer 29, pp. 241–55] criticise our theory of alternating flood regimes and question its application to river management. A brief but critical appraisal of their work shows many errors and misrepresentations. When these are corrected, their challenge is found deficient.     

Extensions of GAP‐tree and its implementation based on a non‐topological data model

This paper discusses extensions of GAP‐trees from three aspects and its implementation based on non‐topological structure in order to enhance access to large vector data sets. First of all, we apply cartographic generalization rules to build a generalization procedure of the GAP‐tree, which makes coarse representations more consistent with human cognition. Second, we replace the three‐dimensional (pseudo‐) Reactive‐tree index with a 2D R‐tree index and a B‐tree index to improve the system efficiency. Finally, we compress a binary GAP‐tree into multi‐way GAP‐trees in order to reduce data redundancy. The shallower multi‐way GAP‐trees not only eliminate redundant data but also accelerate the system's response time. The extensions have been successfully implemented in PostgreSQL. A test of Beijing's land‐use data at the 1:10 000 scale demonstrates that the extended GAP‐trees are efficient, compact, and easy to implement.     

Temporal variability of climate in south‐eastern Australia: a reassessment of flood‐ and drought‐dominated regimes

Inter‐decadal periods of high and low flood activity have been considered to be the dominant factor driving river metamorphosis in catchments along the New South Wales coast. Recent work has questioned the data analysis techniques used in delineating the so‐called flood‐and drought‐dominated regimes (FDRs/DDRs). Concerns have also been raised about the validity of invoking a climatic control for river metamorphosis documented during the post‐European period, when extensive anthropogenic alteration of catchment and riparian vegetation has also occurred. This paper reviews the evolution of the FDR/DDR concept. We examine the evidence for FDRs/DDRs, and highlight problems with the original hydrological data sets, as well as with the techniques employed in the time‐series analysis. We discuss conceptual problems encountered in applying flood‐frequency analysis, and the failure of the proponents of the FDR/DDR theory to consider large‐scale climatic circulation patterns and the geographical boundaries of their influence. We conclude that the validity of the FDR/DDR notion has been seriously over‐stated, and that managing rivers on the basis that FDRs/DDRs have occurred in the past, and will continue to occur in the future, is likely to be ineffective.     

Quantitative estimation and spatial reconstruction of urban and rural construction land in Jiangsu Province, 1820–1985

Land cover is the most evident landscape signal to characterize the influence of human activities on terrestrial ecosystems. Since the industrial revolution, the expansion of construction land has profoundly changed the status of land use coverage and changes. This study is proposed to reconstruct the spatial pattern of construction land (urban construction land and rural settlement land) for five historical periods over the past 200 years in Jiangsu Province with 200 m × 200 m grids on the basis of quantitative estimation. Urban construction land is estimated based on data about city walls, four gates along walls, and other socio-economic factors. Rural settlement land is calculated based on the rural population and per capita housing allowance. The spatial pattern of historical construction land is simulated based on the distribution of modern construction land in 1985 with a quantitative-boundarysuitability control method and thorough consideration over connectivity of different land use types. The study concludes that: (1) the amount of construction land in Jiangsu Province is estimated at 963.46 km² in 1820, 1043.46 km² in 1911, 1672.40 km² in 1936, 1980.34 km² in 1952 and 10,687.20 km² in 1985; and (2) the spatial distribution of construction land features the great proclivity to water bodies and main roads and the strong polarization of existent residence. The results are verified directly and indirectly by applying the trend verification of construction land changes and patterns, the correlation analysis between rural settlement land and local arable land, and quantitative accuracy test of the reconstructed construction land to actual historical survey maps covering four sample regions in 1936.     

GIS,multi‐criteria and multi‐factor spatial analysis for the probability assessment of the existence of illegal landfills

This work deals with the identification of potentially contaminated areas using remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and multi‐criteria spatial analysis. The identification of unknown illegal landfills is a crucial environmental problem in all developed and developing countries, where a large number of illegal waste deposits exist as a result of fast, and relatively unregulated, industrial growth over the past century. The criteria used to perform the spatial analysis are here selected by considering the characteristics which are ‘desirable’ for an illegal waste disposal site, chiefly related to the existence of roads for easy access and to a low population density which facilitates unnoticed dumping of illegal waste materials. A large dataset describing known legal and illegal landfills and the context of their location (population, road network, etc.) was used to perform a spatial statistical analysis to select factors and criteria allowing for the identification of the known waste deposits. The final result is a map describing the likelihood of an illegal waste deposit to be located at any arbitrary location. Such a probability map is then used together with remote sensing techniques to narrow down the set of possibly contaminated sites (Silvestri and Omri, 2008 Silvestri, S. and Omri, M. 2008. A method for the remote sensing identification of uncontrolled landfills: formulation and validation.. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 29(4): 975–989. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), which are candidates for further analyses and field investigations. The importance of the integration of GIS and remote sensing is highlighted and represents a key instrument for environmental management and for the spatially‐distributed characterization of possible uncontrolled landfill sites.     

The wollongong lead study: an investigation of the blood lead levels of pre‐school children and their relationship to soil lead levels

The Wollongong Lead Study was undertaken in 1989–90 by the Pollution Task Force of Healthy Cities Illawarra and the Health Promotion Unit of the Illawarra Area Health Service. It was done in response to community concern in the Port Kembla area about the health effects of known high atmospheric lead levels, which result from the emissions from the Electrolytic Refining & Smelting Pty Ltd (now Southern Copper) smelter. It followed procedures similar to those used in the extensive and long‐term studies of the consequences of emissions from the lead smelter at Port Pirie in South Australia and concentrated on the highest risk group identified by the Port Pirie work, namely very young children (mainly 1–3 years). This paper reports the aspects of the study related to soil‐blood level relationships.

Two areas were compared: a southern area near the smelter; and a northern area near Bellambi which was used as a control because it is not usually affected by air pollution from the industrial zone at Port Kembla. A total of 164 soil samples and 83 blood samples were collected from the southern area, together with 79 soil samples and 30 blood samples from the northern area. Soil lead levels were not high by world standards in either region. The southern area had greater levels than the northern area. While there was no apparent pattern in the northern area, soil lead levels rose significantly towards the smelter at Port Kembla. Blood lead levels were also higher in the southern area. Here they rose from the south towards the industrial area generally, rather than peaking near the smelter. In the northern area there was no pattern apparent. Soil levels were significantly correlated with blood levels (significance level >0.05) and explained 29 per cent of the variation in the blood data. Soil lead levels can be used, therefore, as a general indicator of likely high blood lead levels in young children. Seven children (8%) in the southern area and two children (7%) in the northern area had blood lead levels above the NH&MRC recommended level of concern (25 μg/dL).     

Experimental Analysis of the Dynamic Effects of Coal–Gas Outburst and a Protean Contraction and Expansion Flow Model

Natural Resources Research - As one of the most serious dynamic disasters in underground coal mining, coal–gas outburst (CGO) leads to very high casualties and economic losses. To research...     

Changes in China’s Grain Production Pattern and the Effects of Urbanization and Dietary Structure

Grain production patterns are the basis of a nation’s food security. Since China’s reform and opening-up began in 1978, China’s urbanization process, driven by rapid social and economic development, has accelerated steadily. During this time, the dietary structure of urban and rural Chinese has also changed significantly. Accordingly, grain production patterns have undergone major changes. First, traditional grain production patterns in the north and the south have changed, and the food production center has shifted toward the north. In 1980, the grain yield of southern provinces accounted for 60% of China’s total, while that of northern provinces accounted for 40%. In 2015, the grain yield of southern provinces accounted for 56% of the total, while that of northern provinces accounted for 44%. Second, grain production by regions of the country is “shrinking in the east but expanding in the central regions,” meaning that grain production in eastern coastal provinces has decreased significantly, while that in the central region has expanded. The proportions of the nation’s total grain production from the eastern, central and western regions were 38%, 36% and 26%, respectively, in 1980. These had changed to 27%, 46%, and 27%, respectively, in 2015. Third, the spatial centralization of grain production has increased. The total grain yield of 13 major grain-producing provinces and regions in the country accounted for 69.27% of nation’s total in 1980, and it had reached 76.18% in 2015, showing that the impact of major grain-producing areas on national food security has increased. The influence of rapid urbanization on grain production areas shows remarkable regional differences. As the level of urbanization has increased, build-up land occupies a large number of high-quality farmland, especially in east coastal provinces and thus the grain planting area decreased obviously. The effect of dietary structure changes on grain production patterns was evident in two ways. On the one hand, as dietary diversity has increased, total grain consumption has decreased. The reduction in the proportion of planting area for grain crops to total crop planting area dropped from 82% in 1980 to 68% in 2015, making this change in total grain consumption evident. On the other hand, the ratio of grain for human consumption declined as the ratio of grain consumed by animals increased. The reduction in the proportion of rice and wheat grown and an increase in the proportion of feed grain production (mostly maize) from 20% in the 1980s to 36% in 2015 makes this change in grain production and consumption evident. In the future, with the establishment of national functional areas for grain production, the spatial pattern of grain production will return, while the demand for feed grains will continue to increase but with the space for expansion limited.     

Multi‐criteria evaluation and least‐cost path analysis for optimal haulage routing of dump trucks in large scale open‐pit mines

A new raster‐based GIS model that combines multi‐criteria evaluation and least‐cost path analysis was developed to determine the optimal haulage routes of dump trucks in large scale open‐pit mines. The model logic can consider multiple criteria simultaneously (i.e. speed, water body, ore body, curve, visibility, haul road maintenance) and can rate the adverse factor scores of truck movement using fuzzy membership functions. After establishing the weights of five factors by pairwise comparisons, the average adverse score grid can be generated by the weighted linear combination of factor and constraint scores. New software, called Dump Traveler, was implemented to improve the availability of the developed model. An application to the Roto South pit in the Pasir open‐pit coal mine, Indonesia, showed that the software can provide rational solutions to determine the optimal routes on truck haulage operations. Moreover, the layout of available haul roads can be evaluated to consider the trade‐off between road maintenance costs and the potential for traffic jams. Variations of weights for factors were found to be sensitive to the optimal haulage routes determined by least‐cost path analysis. The software provides both optimal routes on truck haulage operations and approximately estimated travel times along the routes, therefore it can support other truck dispatching software that mainly considers scheduling problems.     

Composition and flux of nurtients transport to the Changjiang Estuary

Based on the results of water sample measurements of nutrient concentrations at the Datong Station of Changjiang River from 1998 to 1999,combined with historiceal data of water quality,seasonal variations of nutrient concentrations and nutrient transports are discussed.Tthe following results have been obtained:(1)the fluxes of the nitrate nitrogen,ammonium nitrogen and nitrite nitrogen increased by time0series from 1962 to 1990,even if runoff volume had a little variation;(2)the concentrations and fluxes of the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN)and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP)increased notably with time,but those of th dissolved silicon(DSI)decreased pronouncedly,and (3) the concentrations and fluxes changed synchronously with time between the Datong Station and the Changjiang Estuary.     

A bottom‐up approach to discover transition rules of cellular automata using ant intelligence

This paper presents a new method to discover transition rules of geographical cellular automata (CA) based on a bottom‐up approach, ant colony optimization (ACO). CA are capable of simulating the evolution of complex geographical phenomena. The core of a CA model is how to define transition rules so that realistic patterns can be simulated using empirical data. Transition rules are often defined by using mathematical equations, which do not provide easily understandable explicit forms. Furthermore, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to specify equation‐based transition rules for reflecting complex geographical processes. This paper presents a method of using ant intelligence to discover explicit transition rules of urban CA to overcome these limitations. This ‘bottom‐up’ ACO approach for achieving complex task through cooperation and interaction of ants is effective for capturing complex relationships between spatial variables and urban dynamics. A discretization technique is proposed to deal with continuous spatial variables for discovering transition rules hidden in large datasets. The ACO–CA model has been used to simulate rural–urban land conversions in Guangzhou, Guangdong, China. Preliminary results suggest that this ACO–CA method can have a better performance than the decision‐tree CA method.     

Analyses of spring mean circulations for major and minor dust storm years in China–Mongolia area

To better understand the dust storm (hereafter DS) inducing circulation in the China–Mongolia (CM) DS activity area, the spring mean circulation features and differences on lower levels in three subregions of the CM DS area for the major- and minor-DS years have, as a whole (not partly), been analyzed, utilizing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyzed gridded data, the observed DS frequency data in the CM area, and the composite analysis method. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Judging from the differences in the DS-inducing systems, dust origins, paths of invading cold air, and main DS-strike areas, the whole CM DS area is roughly divided into the three subregions: the East-, Middle- and West-CM subregions (in this paper, referred to as E-, M-, and W-CM). (2) In major DSs during spring over the E-CM, the middle- and lower-level troughs or cyclones over the Japan Sea and northeastern China (NEC) dominate. The invading cold air along the northeastern (NE) or north by east (NE) path often causes the DS in the E-CM region. But nearly the opposite is true in minor DS during spring in E-CM. (3) In the major DS during spring over the M-CM region, the Mongolian troughs or cyclones are the main DS-inducing systems. The strong invading cold air along the northwestern (NW)- or north by west (Nw) path causes the DSs in the M-CM region. (4) In the major DSs during spring over the W-CM region, the South Xinjiang heat lows prevail, the intruding cold air has a western path, and creates the DSs in South Xinjiang. (5) In the past 50 years, the DSs over the M-CM region have had the most severe impact on the preceding three subregions of the CM DS area. Overall, DS activities over all of three regions of the CM area decreased in the past (particularly, over M- and W-CM regions since the mid-1980s. But there existed a short and sudden increasing in E-CM in the years 2000–2002. (6) It is circulation changes and desertification evolutions that cause the yearly and decadal changes of DS in CM area, especially the former. With the backdrop of global warming in the future, perhaps the decreased DS activities over M- and W-CM will persist for some time again, and special attention should be paid to ones over E-CM or to the individual DS events over M- and W-CM.