Assessing land-use and -cover changes in relation to geographic factors and urban planning in the metropolitan area of Concepción (Chile). Implications for biodiversity conservation

The conservation of biodiversity in Latin American metropolitan areas is threatened by the intense land-use and -cover change. Assessing the overall biodiversity changes in entire regions faces with the traditional lack of consistent biodiversity data. This work aims at contributing to this assessment through a set of major pressures to biodiversity defined from land-use and -cover changes, and evaluating their extent, distribution and correlations with geographical variables. The study was performed in the framework of the Metropolitan Urban Plan of Concepción (MUPC, Chile). Land-use and -cover maps were obtained through image classification for the years 2000 and 2010, before and after the MUPC approval, and combined in a land-use and -cover change (LUCC) map. A set of pressures to biodiversity (natural and artificial forestation, deforestation, agricultural abandonment and expansion, and urbanization) was obtained from reclassifying the LUCC map. The correlations of these pressures with a set of geographical variables were assessed using canonical ordination methods. Finally, a preliminary forecast analysis of the effects of the MUPC was performed by combining the land-use and -cover map of 2010 with the urban-extension areas of the plan.Results showed that, in only 10 years, 57% of the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA) was affected by land-use and -cover changes, and 48% was affected by the pressures to biodiversity. Artificial forestation and deforestation were the dominant pressures, followed by agricultural abandonment and urbanization. The geographical distribution of pressures during the 2000–2010 period also contributed to affect the conservation of biodiversity and the sustainable management of the CMA. Indeed, natural forestation occurred close to urbanization, thus threatening the ecological integrity of native forests, while artificial forestation, deforestation and agricultural abandonment took place in steeply areas thus increasing landslide risk. Despite urbanization was not the most relevant pressure in the short studied period, urban development planned in the MUPC would determine an overall increase of 60% in the built-up area of the CMA, mostly affecting brushwood and forest plantations but also native forest and wetlands. Implications of these results for the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the sustainable management of Latin American metropolis are finally discussed.     

Landscape change in Guatemala: Driving forces of forest and coffee agroforest expansion and contraction from 1990 to 2010

This study examines the land-use/cover change (LUCC) dynamics and drivers for two prominent land-use/cover systems in Guatemala: natural forests (FOR) and coffee agroforests (CAF). To-date, very little research has examined the LUCC dynamics of CAF, in large part due to the high degree of spectral similarity that exists between agroforests and other forest-cover types. Given the ecosystem and livelihood services provided by shade-grown coffee production, it is increasingly necessary to map and identify the dynamics and drivers of CAF changes over space and time. This research uses remote sensing analysis, land transition matrices, and multinomial regression models to examine LUCC dynamics over two ten-year intervals (1990–2000; 2000–2010) in Guatemala. Spatially explicit biophysical (e.g. slope, elevation) and accessibility (e.g. distance to roads) factors are used to model and compare drivers of change for CAF and FOR. Results demonstrate LUCC dynamics and drivers for the two land-use/cover systems to be complex over space and time. For example, FOR losses are evident for both time intervals, largely associated with conversion to CAF and croplands (CPL) in low slope, low altitude areas, and in areas close to existing croplands, respectively. CAF losses are also evident in the 1990s, but are outpaced by expansion in the 2000s. Losses are associated with conversion to CPL, particularly near roads and existing croplands, while expansion and/or persistence of CAF occurs near cities. These results suggest that conservation programs aimed at tree cover preservation and expansion should consider natural forests and managed agroforests separately. Further, such programs should be tailored to specific locations and institutional settings given the influence of topography and accessibility factors in determining localized patterns of landscape transformations over space and time.     

Modeling of urban growth in tsunami-prone city using logistic regression: Analysis of Banda Aceh,Indonesia

The urban development of Banda Aceh, Indonesia was very rapid after the tsunami in 2004, posing critical challenges in planning for its future sustainable development. Scientifically-derived information about its land change patterns and the driving factors of its rapid urbanization might provide vital information. However, the spatio–temporal patterns of its urban land use/cover (LUC) changes have not been examined. Hence, this study aims to: (1) detect and analyze the spatio–temporal changes in the urban LUC of Banda Aceh between 2005 and 2009; and (2) examine the driving factors that influence urban growth. The 2005 and 2009 LUC maps were derived from remote sensing satellite images using a supervised classification method (maximum likelihood). Both LUC maps contained four categories, namely built-up area, vegetation, water body, and wet land. The 2005 LUC map had an overall accuracy of 77.8%, while the 2009 LUC map had 89.4%. The two LUC maps were re-classed into two categories (i.e. built-up area and non built-up area) to facilitate logistic regression analysis. A total of seven variables or potential driving factors of urban growth were identified and examined, including two socio-economic factors (population density and distance to central business district) and five biophysical factors (distances to green open space, historical area, river, highway, and coastal area). The results showed that the LUC of Banda Aceh has changed drastically between 2005 and 2009, particularly its built-up area, which increased by 90.8% (1016.0 ha) at the expense of the other LUC categories. The socio-economic factors showed positive influence to the growth of the city, whereas the biophysical factors showed negative effect, except the distance to coastal areas. The importance of the findings for future landscape and urban planning for Banda Aceh is discussed.     

基于logistic回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析——以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例

本文以农牧交错带的典型区域——内蒙古翁牛特旗为例,考虑土地利用变化过程的空间变量,建立了不同土地利用变化过程的logistic回归模型。结果表明:模型中转为耕地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和农业气候区;转为草地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离、土壤表层有机质含量和到乡镇中心的距离;转为林地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和海拔;空间异质性和土地利用变化过程的时间变量共同影响着使用logistic回归模型来解释土地利用变化驱动力的能力;通过对草地logistic回归模型的检验,得出空间统计模型能较好地揭示不同土地利用变化过程的主要驱动力及其作用机理。     

AutoLogistic方法在土地利用格局模拟中的应用——以张家界市永定区为例

土地利用/ 土地覆被变化(LUCC) 是当前研究全球变化的重要内容, 而区域土地利用 格局模拟是LUCC 研究的核心内容之一。以张家界市永定区为研究单元, 根据由2005 年土地 利用现状图和数字高程模型数据源得到的土地利用、地形、河流以及道路等空间数据, 对区 域土地利用类型空间格局的空间自相关性特征进行了建模研究, 并通过在传统Logistic 模型 中引入描述空间自相关性的成份, 实现了能够考虑自相关性因素的回归分析模型 (AutoLogistic 模型), 同时应用该模型对区域土地利用格局进行了模拟和分析。结果显示, 通 过与没有考虑空间自相关性的回归模型(传统Logistic 模型) 相比较, 该模型显示了更好的拟 合优度和更高的拟合准确率(耕地、林地、建设用地及未利用地的ROC 值分别从0.851、 0.913、0.877 和0.852 提高到0.893、0.940、0.907 和0.863)。研究结果说明了基于 AutoLogistic 方法的土地利用格局的相关性建模在一定意义上是合理的。同时研究结果也可以 为永定区及其相似地区的土地利用规划决策提供更为科学的依据。     

近期气候波动与LUCC过程对东北农田生产潜力的影响

利用1991~2000年逐日气象资料以及20世纪80年代末和90年代末土地利用数据,估算了东北地区气候波动和LUCC过程对农田生产潜力的影响。结果显示:90年代东北地区由于作物生长季内气候变暖和降水减少,生产潜力普遍降低6.45%,其中降水量变化的区域差异是导致生产潜力变化区域分异的主要原因。在LUCC过程的影响下,东北地区生产潜力总量净增加2 402.79×10⁴t。从气候波动和LUCC过程对生产潜力的影响程度看,气候波动要低于LUCC过程的作用,LUCC过程所导致的生产潜力的增长趋势抵消了气候波动所带来的降低趋势,10年间东北地区农田生产潜力总量净增加992.23×10⁴t。     

Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico

The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change.     

土地利用/土地覆被变化研究:寻求新的综合途径

土地利用/土地覆被变化是很复杂的现象,参与该项目的研究人员要避免“瞎子摸大象”那样的片面性,必须寻求新的综合研究途径。为此,不能简单地沿袭传统土地利用研究的思路和方法,需要不断提出新的研究论题;对土地利用变化驱动力必须有一种普遍的、综合的认识;需要将多个案例研究联结为一个可代表区域空间异质性的网络,需要作多空间尺度的研究,从而将地方尺度和区域尺度的土地覆被动态联系起来;需要发展新的研究方法,并将从农户调查到遥感数据的各种信息综合起来;尤其需要形成关于土地利用/土地覆被变化的综合科学理论框架     

Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.     

20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局

土地利用/土地覆被变化（LUCC）是人类活动与自然环境相互作用最直接的表现形式,本文采用相同空间分辨率的卫星遥感信息源和相同的技术方法,对中国1980 年代末到2010 年土地利用变化数据进行定期更新。在此基础上,提出并发展土地利用动态区划的方法,研究土地利用变化的空间格局与时空特征。我们发现：1990-2010 年的20 年间,中国土地利用变化表现出明显的时空差异。“南减北增,总量基本持衡,新增耕地的重心逐步由东北向西北移动”是耕地变化的基本特征;“扩展提速,东部为重心,向中西部蔓延”是城乡建设用地变化的基本特征;“林地前减后增,荒漠前增后减,草地持续减少”是非人工土地利用类型变化的主要特征。20 世纪末与21 世纪初两个10 年相比,中国土地利用变化空间格局出现了一些新特征,原有的13 个土地利用变化区划单元演变为15 个单元,且部分区划单元边界发生变化。主要变化格局特征为黄淮海地区、东南部沿海地区、长江中游地区和四川盆地城镇工矿用地呈现明显的加速扩张态势;北方地区耕地开垦重心由东北地区和内蒙古东部转向西北绿洲农业区;东北地区旱作耕地持续转变为水田;内蒙古农牧交错带南部、黄土高原和西南山地退耕还林还草效果初显。近20 年间,尽管气候变化对北方地区的耕地变化有一定的影响,但政策调控和经济驱动仍然是导致我国土地利用变化及其时空差异的主要原因。2000 年后的第一个10 年,土地利用格局变化的人为驱动因素已由单向国土开发为主,转变为开发与保护并重。在空间格局变化的分析方法方面,应用“动态区划法”开展世纪之交两个10 年中国LUCC空间格局变化的分析,有效揭示了20 年来中国LUCC“格局的变化过程”,即动态区划边界的推移、区划单元内部特征的变化与单元的消长等;以及“变化过程的格局”,即土地利用变化过程与特征的分阶段区域差异,清晰刻画了LUCC动态区划中区划单元的消长,单元边界的变动,以及前后10 年的变化强度特征,揭示了土地利用“格局”与“过程”之间的交替转化规律,以及不同类型和区域的变化原因,证明了该分析方法的有效性。     

中国耕地转型与土地整理:研究进展与框架

土地利用转型研究是开展土地利用/覆被变化( LUCC) 综合研究的一条新途径。通过整合 社会和环境变化的时间尺度与历史背景, 开展中国耕地转型与土地整理方面研究, 属于IGBP 和 IHDP 联合发起的全球土地计划(GLP) 的重要研究内容。本文在综述土地变化科学( LCS) 的理论 与模型、土地利用转型、耕地变化与土地整理的研究进展基础上, 提出中国耕地转型与土地整理 的研究框架： 运用GIS 技术, 通过综合分析遥感解译的土地覆被数据及建国以来国土资源系统的 耕地面积变化数据, 探讨中国耕地变化的空间格局, 结合自然要素和社会经济要素分析耕地转型 的影响因子; 借鉴国外相关研究, 通过分析特定时期内中国耕地变化的影响因素及相应的管理政 策, 在了解中国耕地变化过程的基础上提出中国耕地转型的理论假设; 结合中国耕地的时空变化 模拟, 进而确定中国耕地变化的区域类型及其所处的转型阶段, 并以此作为指导我国耕地保护的 重要举措———土地整理的理论基础和科学依据。     

基于Agent的土地利用/土地覆盖变化模型的研究进展

在查阅国内外大量LUCC模型应用研究文献资料的基础上,重点对基于Agent的土地利用/土地覆盖变化模型(ABM/LUCC)的研究进展进行了详细论述。首先指出ABM/LUCC模型提出的背景,并对模型的基本理论和概念进行简要介绍;其次,重点论述ABM/LUCC模型的主要研究问题以及该模型在城市土地利用、农业土地利用以及自然资源管理等领域的国内外研究进展;最后,分析总结目前模型应用中存在的主要问题,并探讨模型未来发展的主要方向。     

20世纪后半叶美国海岸带区域土地利用变化时空特征分析

基于美国1949～2002年以州为统计单元的土地利用数据,运用多种土地利用变化指数模型及其图示表达,包括:土地利用动态度、土地利用变化区域差异指数、土地利用程度综合指数等,分析和揭示土地利用变化的时空特征。分析发现:①海岸带区域土地利用在结构特征、数量变化、时空动态特征等方面明显不同于美国48州;②西海岸、五大湖沿岸、墨西哥湾沿岸和东海岸4个海岸带区域的土地利用结构及其时空动态也表现出多方面的显著差异性;③美国48州、海岸带区域整体及其4个分区相比,50余年间的土地利用变化以差异性为主,但也有共性,例如,特殊用地的持续快速增加体现了普遍的快速城市化过程;④在长达50余年的时间尺度来审视,人口、经济与政策因素对海岸带区域土地利用变化的影响最为显著。总之,20世纪后半叶,美国海岸带区域土地利用时空变化及其驱动因素具有较为明显的区域性和阶段性特征,对这一问题的深入研究可为我国海岸带区域土地资源的保护与开发提供良好的借鉴。     

LUCC驱动力模型研究综述

驱动力研究是土地利用变化研究中的核心问题。土地利用变化驱动力模型是分析土地利用变化原因和结果的有力工具，模型通过情景分析可为土地利用规划与决策提供依据。基于不同理论的驱动力研究方法很多，论文选取了几种国内外应用较多的LUCC驱动力模型进行综述，分析了每个模型的优缺点及适用范围，最后得出结论：1) 基于过程的动态模型更适于研究复杂的土地利用系统。2) 基于经验的统计模型能弥补基于过程的动态模型的不足。3) 基于不同学科背景的模型进一步集成将是LUCC驱动力模型未来的发展趋势。     

The land use and land cover change database and its relative studies in China

In the mid-1990s, we established the national operative dynamic information serving systems on natural resources and environment. During building the land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) database for the mid-1990s, 520 scenes of remotely sensed images of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) were interpreted into land-use/land-cover categories at scale of 1:100,000 under overall digital software environment after being geo-referenced and ortho-rectified. The vector map of land-use/land-cover in China at the scale of 1:100,000 was recently converted into a 1-km raster database that captures all of the high-resolution land-use information by calculating area percentage for each kind of land use category within every cell. Being designed as an operative dynamic information serving system, monitoring the change in land-use/land-cover at national level was executed. We have completed the updating of LUCC database by comparing the TM data in the mid-1990s with new data sources received during 1999–2000 and 1989–1990. The LUCC database has supported greatly the national LUCC research program in China and some relative studies are incompletely reviewed in this paper.     

The land use and land cover change database and its relative studies in China

In the mid-1990s, we established the national operative dynamic information serving systems on natural resources and environment. During building the land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) database for the mid-1990s, 520 scenes of remotely sensed images of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) were interpreted into land-use/land-cover categories at scale of 1:100,000 under overall digital software environment after being geo-referenced and ortho-rectified. The vector map of land-use/land-cover in China at the scale of 1:100,000 was recently converted into a 1-km raster database that captures all of the high-resolution land-use information by calculating area percentage for each kind of land use category within every cell. Being designed as an operative dynamic information serving system, monitoring the change in land-use/land-cover at national level was executed. We have completed the updating of LUCC database by comparing the TM data in the mid-1990s with new data sources received during 1999-2000 and 1989-1990. The LUCC database has supported greatly the national LUCC research program in China and some relative studies are incompletely reviewed in this paper.     

中国农村宅基地转型的理论与证实

土地利用转型是土地利用变化的表现形式之一,也是由IGBP和IHDP联合发起的全球土地研究计划 (GLP) 的重要研究内容。目前土地利用/覆被变化 (LUCC) 研究仍然有待进一步理论化,在学科综合与集成基础上提出的假设对土地变化科学显得尤为重要。土地利用转型研究需要寻求一种综合的方法,来对社会和环境变化的时间尺度和历史背景进行整合。通过分析特定时期内中国农村建房的影响因素及相应的管理政策,在了解中国农村建房发展过程的基础上,提出了中国农村宅基地转型趋势的理论假设：随着社会经济的发展,农村宅基地在增加的建设用地总量中所占比例将由高逐渐降低,直到这一比例趋向于一个固定值。最后运用长江沿线样带农村宅基地转型研究结果验证了该理论假设。     

Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s简

Land-use/land-cover changes （LUCCs） have links to both human and nature inter- actions. China＇s Land-Use/cover Datasets （CLUDs） were updated regularly at 5-year inter- vals from the late 1980s to 2010, with standard procedures based on Landsat TM／ETM＋ im- ages. A land-use dynamic regionalization method was proposed to analyze major land-use conversions. The spatiotemporal characteristics, differences, and causes of land-use changes at a national scale were then examined. The main findings are summarized as fol- lows. Land-use changes （LUCs） across China indicated a significant variation in spatial and temporal characteristics in the last 20 years （1990-2010）. The area of cropland change de- creased in the south and increased in the north, but the total area remained almost un- changed. The reclaimed cropland was shifted from the northeast to the northwest. The built-up lands expanded rapidly, were mainly distributed in the east, and gradually spread out to central and western China. Woodland decreased first, and then increased, but desert area was the opposite. Grassland continued decreasing. Different spatial patterns of LUC in China were found between the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The original 13 LUC zones were replaced by 15 units with changes of boundaries in some zones. The main spatial characteristics of these changes included （1） an accelerated expansion of built-up land in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the southeastern coastal areas, the midstream area of the Yangtze River, and the Sichuan Basin; （2） shifted land reclamation in the north from northeast China and eastern Inner Mongolia to the oasis agricultural areas in northwest China; （3） continuous transformation from rain-fed farmlands in northeast China to paddy fields; and （4） effective- ness of the ＂Grain for Green＂ project in the southern agricultural-pastoral ecotones of Inner Mongolia, the Loess Plateau, and southwestern mountainous areas. In the last two decades, although climate change in the north affected the change in cropland, policy regulation and economic driving forces were still the primary causes of LUC across China. During the first decade of the 21st century, the anthropogenic factors that drove variations in land-use pat- terns have shifted the emphasis from one-way land development to both development and conservation. The ＂dynamic regionalization method＂ was used to analyze changes in the spatial patterns of zoning boundaries, the internal characteristics of zones, and the growth and decrease of units. The results revealed ＂the pattern of the change process,＂ namely the process of LUC and regional differences in characteristics at different stages. The growth and decrease of zones during this dynamic LUC zoning, variations in unit boundaries, and the characteristics of change intensities between the former and latter decades were examined. The patterns of alternative transformation between the ＂pattern＂ and ＂process＂ of land use and the causes for changes in different types and different regions of land use were explored.     

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.